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🚨🇷🇺💥🇪🇺BREAKING: Heightened activity at Russia’s Kapustin Yar missile test range is fueling serious concerns of a potential large scale strike as early as tonight. Intelligence reports indicate possible preparations involving the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile. Oreshnik missile has such a long range that it can strike even NATO...

23,089 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 How Iranian Missiles Are Challenging U.S. Air Defenses Recent conflicts have intensified concerns within the Pentagon over the effectiveness of Iranian ballistic missile capabilities against advanced U.S. and allied air defense systems in the Middle East. According to military assessments and defense analysts, several Iranian missile systems appear capable of performing terminal phase maneuvers, changing their trajectory during the final seconds of flight. This makes it significantly more difficult for air defense systems to accurately predict the missile's path and execute a successful interception. Traditional missile defense systems calculate an incoming missile's trajectory well before impact. However, a missile that alters its course at the last moment can reduce interception opportunities and increase the likelihood of reaching its intended target with greater accuracy. The reported performance of these missiles has become a growing concern for the Pentagon, particularly after recent attacks on U.S. military facilities in the region. Analysts believe these capabilities are forcing the United States to reassess its missile defense posture, interceptor deployment, and early warning strategies across the Middle East. While U.S. air defense systems remain among the most advanced in the world, evolving missile technologies continue to create new operational challenges. The ongoing competition between increasingly sophisticated offensive missiles and modern defensive systems is expected to remain a key focus for military planners in the years ahead.

Defense Intelligence

21,186 просмотров • 23 дней назад

🇷🇺 RUSSIA'S "UNINTERCEPTABLE" HYPERSONIC MISSILE GOES LIVE IN BELARUS - BY NEW YEAR'S Belarus just confirmed: the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system will be on combat duty in December 2025. That means Putin will have nuclear-capable missiles that can hit anywhere in Europe, travel at Mach 10+, and evade existing European defenses - deployed roughly 60 km from Minsk by year’s end. What Oreshnik is: An intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) derived from Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh ICBM. It carries multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) - six warheads, each dispersing submunitions, a capability previously associated almost exclusively with nuclear systems. Estimates go up to 36 submunitions per missile. The speed: Putin claims speeds up to Mach 10. Ukrainian military officials told CNN it reached Mach 11. Russian officials insist its warheads are effectively immune to interception. The range: Russia’s missile forces chief says Oreshnik can reach all of Europe. Russian state media claims: 11 minutes to Poland 17 minutes to NATO headquarters in Brussels First combat use: November 21, 2024 - strike on Dnipro, Ukraine. The missile reportedly carried inert or “dummy” warheads, but the kinetic energy alone caused significant damage. A CSIS director noted that even non-explosive hypersonic impacts can be devastating. Why it matters: Most European missile defenses are ineffective against Oreshnik. It flies above the engagement envelope of many systems and descends too quickly for terminal defenses like Patriot. Only Arrow 3 and SM-3 Block IIA have theoretical intercept capability - and inventories are limited. The conventional threat: In a NATO conflict, Russia could strike air bases, command centers, and missile sites with conventional Oreshniks, achieving strategic effects without using nuclear weapons. Foreign Policy notes it may take dozens of Iskanders to neutralize a major air base, but far fewer Oreshniks. Production status: August 1, 2025: Putin says Oreshnik entered service and first batch delivered November 4, 2025: Putin claims serial production underway The constraint: Zelensky claims Russia can produce only about six Oreshnik missiles per year. Ukrainian forces also claim one system was destroyed at Kapustin Yar, leaving two operational. The deployment: Belarusian President Lukashenko confirmed combat duty by December: “Oreshnik is a scary weapon. It will be put on combat duty in December.” Satellite imagery in late August 2025 showed launch-site preparation about 60 km south of Minsk. The strategic shift: Belarus already hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Adding IRBMs places most European capitals within minutes of impact and shortens NATO reaction time dramatically. Expert assessment: Nonproliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis says Oreshnik combines existing technologies rather than introducing revolutionary ones. A University of Oslo defense expert estimates no more than 10% new components. However, analyst Mathieu Boulegue argues its real value is psychological - intimidating Western audiences rather than changing battlefield dynamics. Putin’s messaging: Putin warned Oreshnik could be used against NATO allies enabling Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. In December 2024, he said the missile brings Russia “close to having no need to use nuclear weapons.” The context: The November 2024 strike came days after Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear response to include certain conventional attacks supported by nuclear powers. What’s actually happening: Russia is deploying intermediate-range missiles banned under the INF Treaty until the U.S. withdrawal in 2019 - capable of delivering conventional or nuclear warheads along trajectories Europe struggles to intercept. Decades of NATO base consolidation mean airpower is concentrated in a few high-value sites, making them uniquely vulnerable to Oreshnik’s submunition dispersal. Bottom line: By December 31, 2025, Russia will have Oreshnik missiles on combat alert in Belarus - roughly 60 km from Minsk - aimed at NATO bases, command centers, and capitals. 11 minutes to Warsaw. 17 minutes to Brussels. Conventional or nuclear. You don’t know which until impact. The deterrence calculus has shifted. Russia can now threaten massive conventional damage without crossing the nuclear threshold - using missiles Europe largely cannot stop. And they’re going live in 2 weeks. Source: The Kyiv Independent, CNN, Defense Feeds, Foreign Policy, Business Standard, TASS

Mario Nawfal

46,590 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Zelensky confirms successful Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo missile strikes on Volgograd’s Titan-Barrikady plant, a major Russian producer of strategic missiles, Iskander systems, and artillery. 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelensky: 📌 “Every Russian defense facility working on the war against Ukraine is a fair target for our long-range sanctions. Tonight, FP-5 ‘Flamingo’ type missiles successfully struck the ‘Titan-Barrikady’ enterprise in Volgograd. This is a large industrial complex where the enemy produces artillery systems and special military equipment, in particular, elements of rocket launchers for strikes on our people. Hits were recorded, followed by a fire on the plant’s territory. I thank our Defense Forces warriors for their precision.” 🚀 “The geography of Ukrainian long-range sanctions is constantly expanding and it is precisely our pressure that creates the basis every day for a worthy peace to finally come. I am grateful to every Ukrainian engineer and warrior who ensures our long-range capabilities. Glory to Ukraine!” 🏭 The Volgograd Federal Scientific and Production Center “Titan-Barrikady” (part of the Rostech corporation) is one of the most important and strategic facilities of the Russian military-industrial complex. It is mainly specialized in the following areas: 1Launchers for strategic missile complexes: The plant produces mobile launchers and technical units for Russia’s main nuclear missile complexes, such as Topol-M, Yars, and the naval intercontinental ballistic missile Bulava. 2Tactical missile systems: Launchers for the well-known operational-tactical missile complexes Iskander-M are produced here, which Russia actively uses to bomb Ukrainian cities. 3Large-caliber artillery and naval systems: The plant produces artillery units for ground forces (for example, parts of self-propelled howitzers - 2S7 Pion; MSTA-B/MSTA-S), as well as automatic artillery systems for naval fleet ships and coastal defense missile complexes. Video is generated by grok AI

NSTRIKE

269,760 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 CENTCOM just requested deployment of the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East. This would be the first time the U.S. has ever deployed a hypersonic weapon in combat. Here's why it's being requested now specifically. Iran has spent the ceasefire relocating its ballistic missile launchers deeper into the country, beyond the reach of the Precision Strike Missile, whose range caps out around 500 kilometers. The U.S. burned through its entire PrSM inventory in the opening weeks of this war. The weapon designed to replace it hasn't been declared fully operational yet. Dark Eagle travels at Mach 5 plus, maneuvers unpredictably in the terminal phase, and has a range of over 1,700 miles. No existing Iranian air defense system can intercept it. From launch positions in the Gulf it reaches Tehran in minutes. Now here's the catch nobody is leading with. The Pentagon's own testing office says it won't have enough data to evaluate Dark Eagle's combat effectiveness until early 2027. It has repeatedly failed to launch during tests due to launcher and production quality issues. A defense official told Fox News it has reached "initial operational capability." That is the military's careful way of saying it works, sometimes, under controlled conditions. One senior fellow at the Stimson Center said plainly: "How do you know it is defense budget season in Washington? An unnecessary push to deploy a not-yet-fully-operational hypersonic missile against Iran. Nothing says fund me like first use." There are roughly 8 missiles available. Each costs $15 million. Russia and China have been fielding their own hypersonic weapons for years while the US repeatedly delayed. Deploying Dark Eagle now sends a message to Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow simultaneously. The problem is that message cuts both ways. It signals America's hypersonic era has finally arrived. It also signals that America is considering using an unproven weapon, in combat, for the first time, against a target that has spent the ceasefire hardening and dispersing precisely because it saw this coming. Source: Al Jazeera, CNN, Crisis Group

Mario Nawfal

270,819 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

What if any preparations have you seen Iran make ahead of the war? Can you discuss It’s missile capabilities? Any intelligence capabilities? Any surprises it might happen in store? When the 12-day war ended, I estimated that Iran would need about six months to recover, including its nuclear program. Contrary to popular belief, Iran did not lose its entire long-range or medium-range air defense network; while some launchers were damaged, the primary targets of the Israeli strikes were the radar systems. Once the radars were neutralized, Iran successfully hid the bulk of its remaining batteries, leaving much of its arsenal intact. In contrast, short-range systems like the Tor-M1 and domestic variants were heavily engaged against cruise missiles, often being lost or damaged only after their ammunition was completely exhausted. Since then, Iran has worked to rebuild its destroyed radar network and, above all, to implement a genuine counterintelligence doctrine. The Mossad operations against Iranian radars and air defense systems have shaped new perimeter defense and counterintelligence doctrines not only in Iran but in other countries as well. If we look at the quantity of weapons and the organization of armed groups during Iran’s most recent protests, I would say the problem of foreign intelligence operations inside the country remains severe. This seriously threatens much of Iran’s capabilities, and I foresee a wave of sabotage operations as a new war draws closer. Iran has begun receiving collaboration from China across multiple areas,from satellites to internal counterintelligence, but it may still take some time for this to produce tangible results. During the last years, the Mossad relied heavily on cell phones, using SMS for recruitment and accessing device GPS for target location. Iran has since focused intensely on preventing any repetition of this, and on this specific issue, the Chinese appear to have provided support. Although foreign intelligence services have operated extensively inside Iran, the scale of any armed opposition groups is negligible compared to the Iranian armed forces, which could still draw on allied paramilitaries and militias in neighboring countries, including the Houthis. Iran has become a missile power with a stockpile far larger than Western estimates suggest. As early as 1998, Iran was already producing missiles with ranges exceeding 1,000 km, and it has continued doing so ever since, developing 12 to 15 different models in that range - meaning all are capable of reaching Israel. That is nearly 30 years of continuous missile production, resulting in a stockpile of several thousands. Another area where Iran has emerged as a global power is drones, including underwater ones. Iran’s UUVs have evolved rapidly into mass-produced models with integrated AI, and I believe they hold some major surprises in reserve. A key point today is that the AN/TPY-2 radars, which played a critical role in tracking Iranian missiles, would be among the first targets to be engaged. These high-powered X-band radars are the backbone of regional missile defense, providing essential data to THAAD and Patriot batteries. However, because they are large, stationary, and emit high-energy signals, they are highly vulnerable to a first-strike or saturation attack, which would effectively 'blind' the entire defensive network. Obviously, a defense budget of nearly one trillion dollars cannot be compared to Iran’s, but the real question is whether the cost and effort are worth the potential casualties. Even without Israel, the Americans maintain an immense advantage in aerial operations over Iran; however, as I have stated before, this superiority does not translate to the maritime theater.

Patricia Marins

21,142 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

The Israeli Air Force has dropped over 12,000 bombs in Iran since the start of the war, in over 8,500 separate strikes on Iranian regime targets, the military says. A senior IAF official says that "in 18 days, we flew as much as we would in a year." Of the 12,000 munitions, 3,600 alone were used in strikes in Tehran, according to the IDF. IAF fighter jets have carried out 5,700 separate sorties, including over 540 to central and western Iran and 50 deeper east in the country. Military officials say that the IAF is carrying out constant air operations over Iran to thwart ballistic missile fire on Israel, using new techniques that allow for longer operations without the need for refueling. In this formation, dubbed "metro sorties" by the IAF, drones and fighter jets loiter before carrying out strikes on ballistic missile launchers, Iranian soldiers, and other targets, based on "real-time information." When a new target is identified, IAF aircraft can be quickly dispatched to strike it. This was the case for the killing of Iran's intelligence minister, Esmaeil Khatib, in Tehran yesterday, according to the IDF. Officials say this effort relies on maintaining air superiority over Iran. The military assesses that its strikes have destroyed around 85% of Iran's air defense and detection systems. More than 300 targets relating to Iran's air defenses, including missile launchers and radars, have been struck, the IDF says. In terms of Iran's advanced air defense systems, the IAF assesses that it has destroyed 92% of them, with only a handful of such systems remaining, including some that are hidden and not in use. The IDF says it has destroyed around 80% of Iran's older air defense systems, along with 80% of its radars. Iran also has what the military describes as "decentralized" air defense systems, where missile launchers are connected to various optical systems, such as rudimentary cameras with artificial intelligence tracking software, to target Israeli aircraft. Some 75% of these systems have been destroyed, and military officials acknowledge they are much harder to locate than the advanced systems. Additionally, the IDF says it has destroyed or disabled around 60% of Iran's estimated 470 ballistic missile launchers. Some previous military estimates put this number at 70%. Around 200 of the launchers were destroyed in strikes, while another 80 are not considered to be operational after the IAF struck tunnel entrances to subterranean facilities where they are stored, according to the military. The IAF says it continues to hunt down the remaining roughly 200 launchers to reduce the missile fire on Israel. The military also assesses that Iran still has hundreds of ballistic missiles that can reach Israel. It has so far launched over 350 at Israel, with the rate of fire slowing to 10-20 missiles a day in the past week, with just one or two missiles at a time.

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian

160,861 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад