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BREAKING: #HRStv hosts Suneet Mittal and Daniel Alyesh discuss the differences in two recent high profile cases: Damar Hamlin and Lisa Marie Presley. See more here #EPeeps as these experts share their views ➡️ #DamarHamlin #LisaMariePresley #cardiacarrest

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MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply

Mark

20,090 次观看 • 2 个月前