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BREAKING: Pro-Israel moderate survives primary challenge by socialist insurgent. The heavily redrawn Florida congressional swing district is among roughly two dozen House seats that will likely determine whether Republicans hold onto their razor-thin majority in November.

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🇺🇸 BREAKING: BYRON DONALDS IS DOMINATING THE GOP FIELD IN FLORIDA! Florida Republicans know who they want. Byron Donalds commands 54% of Republican primary voters with zero other candidate polling outside single digits. The Naples Congressman has built an unstoppable momentum heading into August's primary. His polling lead actually widened nine percentage points since January. This isn't a race anymore. It's a coronation. The endorsements tell the story. Trump backed him. Mike Johnson backed him. Rick Scott backed him. Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry. Seventeen members of Florida's congressional delegation. Roughly 75% of the Republican House caucus in Tallahassee. When that many heavyweights coalesce, primary voters follow! Here's what makes Donalds special: He's a self-made conservative. Son of a single mother in Brooklyn. Worked through poverty. Career in banking and finance. Pro-life, pro-gun, pro-America First agenda. If elected, he becomes the first Black Republican governor in U.S. history. That's not a footnote. That's a big deal that matters! He's raised $67 million this cycle. His campaign has the money, the organization, the message, and the Trump seal of approval. The field got crushed because nobody else could compete. Now for the general election: David Jolly is running as a Democrat. He's the ex-Republican who switched parties and now campaigns on affordability. Some recent polls show a tighter race than Republicans want. But here's the reality - Florida hasn't gone blue since 2018. Trump won it by 13 points in 2024. Cook Political Report rates this Solid Republican. What matters most: Ron DeSantis is leaving Florida in terrific shape. Eight years of governing has built a fortress state. Strong economy. No state income tax. Growing population. Conservative courts. When you inherit success like that, momentum carries you forward. Donalds doesn't need to reinvent Florida. He just needs to protect what DeSantis built and push the Trump agenda deeper into state government. That's a winning message for a Solid Republican state. Florida Republicans have made their choice. Now watch them show up in November.

Bill Mitchell

19,618 просмотров • 28 дней назад

New York Just Sang a Revolutionary Anthem at a Congressional Victory Party At Claire Valdez’s victory party, supporters openly sang “Solidarity Forever,” the radical anthem of revolutionary socialism written for the Industrial Workers of the World (IWW), a union that openly called for the overthrow of capitalism. Valdez, a proud member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and former union organizer with the United Auto Workers at Columbia University, won the Democratic primary for New York’s 7th Congressional District. Backed heavily by socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani, she defeated Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in a major victory for the radical left. Valdez has called for abolishing ICE and was arrested while protesting U.S. arms sales to Israel. She only recently entered the New York State Assembly in 2025 before immediately running for Congress with Mamdani’s full support. Now her supporters are celebrating by singing a song that calls for building “a new world from the ashes of the old.” This is not a normal political celebration. It is the open embrace of revolutionary ideology inside the Democratic Party. While Mamdani and his DSA machine install their people across New York, from Congress to the State Senate their supporters no longer feel the need to hide their radical roots - the Republicans have no plan to stop this! (We have been warning and reporting on the DSA threat for over a decade now) And once again, much of the political establishment watches in silence as this transformation accelerates and they sing songs that once represented the overthrow of the American system.. New York is not drifting. It is being captured.

Amy Mek

26,386 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

IS THE DEMOCRAT PARTY ABOUT TO SPLIT ITSELF IN HALF?! Byron Donalds said it plainly. This isn't new. This is who they've always been. Watch what just happened in New York. Zohran Mamdani's hand picked slate of democratic socialists knocked off two sitting Democrat incumbents in their own primaries. Not moderates losing to Republicans. Moderates losing to their own party's radical wing. Donalds called it years ago. Socialism. Open borders. Government control of healthcare. Energy policy that ignores nuclear and natural gas in favor of windmills that can't keep the lights on. "This has been the state of play for Democrat policy for a long, long time," he said. "It's just now they're coming out of the closet." He's right. The mask is off. Trump summed up the New York results with the perfect amount of mockery. "Mayor Mamdani pulled through 3 solid Communists, and has received loud and universal applause from the Fake News Media. Congratulations Mr. Mayor!" Even the NRCC is licking its chops. Spokesman Mike Marinella put it bluntly. "The Democrat Party has surrendered to radical socialist Zohran Mamdani and the far-left mob who are now running the show." Here is the real question heading into the midterms. Every House Democrat now has to answer for this. Vulnerable Democrats in swing districts cannot run from a national brand that just handed the microphone to self described socialists. Voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan are not signing up for city owned grocery stores and rent freezes. A party cannot serve two masters. It cannot promise Wall Street donors moderation while its base demands revolution. That fracture doesn't heal in five months. It just gets photographed at every town hall between now and November. Republicans do not need to invent this storyline. Democrats wrote it themselves, and now they have to run on it.

Bill Mitchell

14,270 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 When did Kentucky become a Sanctuary STATE? 🚨 Kentucky is quietly operating as a sanctuary state. Illegal immigrants arrested for crimes — sometimes even felonies — are being released back into our communities without so much as a glance at their immigration status. This isn’t the fault of our judges, police, or lawmakers, who work tirelessly to secure Law and Order in Kentucky. It’s the work of unelected bureaucrats who are dodging the law and putting Kentuckians at serious risk. At Tuesday’s Judiciary Committee hearing, I uncovered a shocking truth: the system designed to protect us is failing on purpose. When someone is arrested in Kentucky, Risk Assessment Specialists (RAS) and Pretrial Services Specialists (PSS) evaluate whether they’re a flight risk, likely to skip court, or a danger to the public (KRS 431.066). These factors determine if they’re released, often without a bond or even seeing a judge. But here’s the problem—RAS and PSS don’t bother checking if the person is an illegal immigrant, even when federal databases like NCIC could reveal an ICE detainer (a request from ICE to hold the individual for 48 hours for deportation proceedings), prior deportations, and other immigration cases. I pressed an executive officer of the Department of Pretrial Services at the hearing, and they admitted: immigration status isn’t even considered. Illegal immigrants, by their very presence, are breaking federal law. Many lack ties to the community, making them inherent flight risks. They’re less likely to show up to court and more likely to pose a danger if released. Yet, Kentucky’s bureaucrats are letting them walk free, often before ICE even knows they’re in custody. This is a betrayal of public safety and a slap in the face to the rule of law. That’s why I will be proposing legislation that: ✅ Requires Risk Assessment Specialists to check a defendant’s immigration status. ✅ Prohibits bail for anyone whose legal status can’t be verified until ICE is contacted and decides whether to pick them up for deportation. This ensures illegal immigrants aren’t released to disappear into our communities while awaiting trial. It’s common sense, and it’s already within the spirit of existing Kentucky law—just ignored by liberal, Beshear-loving bureaucrats hiding in administrative roles. Kentucky deserves better than a system that prioritizes criminal illegal aliens over citizens. I’m fighting to end this hug-a-thug, sanctuary state nonsense and restore accountability. Will you join me? ⬇️

TJ Roberts

117,299 просмотров • 1 год назад

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING BAD WILL HAPPEN IN 48 HOURS!! Today, Axios and other sources confirmed: "The White House expects a final response from Iran within 48 hours." Trump also confirmed that the deal is "VERY POSSIBLE." But he added one phrase that changed EVERYTHING: "IF THEY DON’T AGREE, WE WILL START BOMBING." If you hold any assets: - Stocks - Crypto - Bonds - US dollar You MUST read this post before it’s too late: Despite Trump’s optimism, the devil is in the details, which make signing almost unrealistic. NUCLEAR ULTIMATUM The US demands a full transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles to the States and the shutdown of all underground facilities. For Iran, this is equal to total capitulation. That’s why Abbas Araghchi and Khamenei can’t approve it right now. ISRAELI Israel insists on a "Libyan scenario" (complete disarmament), which Tehran will never agree to voluntarily. Markets are currently pricing in a PEACEFUL OUTCOME. That’s exactly what makes them extremely VULNERABLE. On deal expectations, Brent oil dropped to $102. BUT if, in 48 hours, instead of a signature, missiles start flying, we’ll see an instant vertical move to $140-160. Because a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will resume. JUST IMAGINE: 160 PER BARREL. Gold and silver will spike ABNORMALLY at that moment. Investors do not believe in long-term growth and fear an inflation shock. The stock market right now is holding on by a thread. A deal failure will trigger a wave of liquidations, as hopes for Fed rate cuts (which are only possible with cheap oil) will instantly evaporate. If Iran rejects the terms, which is most likely given the harsh uranium demands, the 48-hour window will close with the start of a MASSIVE ESCALATION. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here. When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money. Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon. Many will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

187,939 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

❗️❗️🇺🇸🇮🇱🚀🇮🇷 The United States is reportedly preparing a new large-scale military operation against Iran, with multiple major American media outlets indicating that an intensive air campaign could begin as early as this weekend. 🔹 The Wall Street Journal: President Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. military to prepare a new attack on Iran that could begin this weekend and continue for several days. 🔹 ABC News: Trump is considering a sustained series of strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure. According to another source, the plans were discussed with Israeli officials, although it remains unclear whether Israel will directly participate. 🔹 NBC News: The United States and Israel are reportedly preparing what could become the most extensive bombing campaign yet against Iran's energy infrastructure, with operations potentially lasting throughout the weekend. 🔹 CNN: The U.S. has prepared plans for a new wave of strikes that could begin this weekend, including options targeting Iran's nuclear and energy infrastructure. According to the network, there are currently no clear indications that Israel will participate directly in this phase of the operation. 🔹 CBS News: Israeli officials have been fully briefed and remain in close coordination with Washington. Sources say discussions included completing the expanded strike campaign before financial markets reopen on Monday due to concerns over its potential impact on the U.S. and global economy. According to two U.S. officials, Iranian power plants and oil refineries are expected to be among the primary targets. A senior Israeli official also said that Trump and Netanyahu reviewed three military options, including strikes focused on Iran's strategic ground supply routes. The convergence of reporting from several major U.S. media outlets suggests that Washington is actively preparing options for a significantly broader campaign than previous operations. If such strikes are carried out, they would likely mark a major escalation aimed at degrading Iran's military and economic infrastructure while substantially increasing the risk of a wider regional confrontation. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

16,859 просмотров • 18 дней назад

‡ Judging Firm Ground Turf Action Friday's 8th race is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. I've chosen this race not because it will necessarily present a good betting opportunity, but rather a good illustration of how I go about predicting whether horses which haven't yet raced on firm turf are likely to handle it well. In the U.S., handicappers typically look through the lens from the other side, meaning that as the vast majority of turf races are contested over firm (or hard) courses, predicting which horses may handle the odd soft ground race is the challenge. But when horses travel from Europe to the U.S., relatively few have shown form over anything like the firm ground typically found in the States, and not all of them adapt equally well. There are four European runners in the race. Balantina was beaten just a nose in a Group III race in France over a course rated firm, and her action appears consistent with a horse that should handle even firmer going. Precise, the 6/5 program favorite, has also won over relatively firm surfaces, and shows a good action. She'll need to overcome a very bad draw, but is clearly the best horse in the race on form. This brings us to the two fillies that I'll use to illustrate contrasting action. Broadly speaking, horses that are well-suited to firm surfaces show a fluid, lower-to-the-ground action, while those which often prove best on softer surfaces display a rounder, or what is sometimes referred to as "knee" action. Pacific Mission has run only three times. Her two races on turf were contested over ground that was much softer than what she will face at Del Mar. But her third race was at Kempton, over an all-weather surface, and the attached clip (below, on the left), was taken from that race. She is the one in front, with the rider wearing the iconic pink, white and green Juddmonte silks. As you should be able to see, Pacific Mission shows a good, fluid action, which implies that she is likely to adapt well to the Del Mar turf. Whether she, and her rider, Colin Keane, will be able to overcome the 12 post, and prove good enough to win or place, are different matters. Queen of Hawaii, trained by Aidan O'Brien's son Joseph, will break from post 2. She also has three starts to date, but unlike Pacific Mission, has yet to race over anything like firm ground. While all three of her races were over ground rated "good", that rating in Ireland is typically, I would say, equivalent to what would be labeled a "yielding" course in the U.S. That each of her last two races, both over a mile, were run no faster than 1:41 4/5, helps to illustrate the point. The clip of her most recent run (below, on the right), was taken from her Group III win at The Curragh in August. She is the horse tracking three wide (#5), in dark blue silks. Note how she picks up her knees, as that it the type of action that is more often associated with horses that prefer give in the ground. To be clear, some horse that display such action do "act" on firmer surfaces, as well, and presumably her trainer is optimistic that Queen of Hawaii will adapt. But the contrast between her action, and that of Pacific Mission, provides a good illustration of the basic differences. And setting aside all other handicapping variables, horses with fluid action are more likely to excel over firm surfaces than those with a pronounced knee action.

Tinky

13,918 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Facial reconstruction of a 8,500-year-old man from Kennewick, Washington, USA Kennewick Man was discovered on July 28, 1996, by two college students, Will Thomas and David Deacy, while wading in the Columbia River near Kennewick during a hydroplane race. Thomas found a human skull in shallow water about 3 meters from shore. Police and archaeologist James Chatters later recovered about 350 bones and fragments, forming a nearly complete skeleton. The cranium was intact with all teeth present. All major bones were recovered except the sternum and a few hand and foot bones. Chatters determined the individual was a tall (170–176 cm), muscular but slender male aged about 40–55. Isotope analysis of carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen showed that for roughly the last 20 years of his life he relied heavily on marine mammals and drank glacial meltwater, suggesting a highly mobile, water-oriented lifestyle possibly connected to the northern Pacific coast, even as far as Alaska. He also had arthritis in his right elbow, knees, and several vertebrae, along with healed injuries including a fractured rib and cranial depressions. Early cranial comparisons by Chatters and others suggested similarities to the Ainu, Polynesians, and so-called Caucasoids, leading to controversy regarding the origins of Kennewick Man. However, racial undifferentiation in archaic human remains is common, and many Paleo-Indian and even archaic Eurasian remains show similar morphological affinities. Later genetic tests concluded that his genome was nested within the diversity of contemporary Native Americans. The study determined that Kennewick Man belonged to a population closely related to present-day Native Americans. His Y-DNA was Q1b1a1a1e1a1, a common Native American haplogroup. His mtDNA was X2a, which is also found among Northern Native Americans, while other branches of haplogroup X appear in Eurasia, particularly in the Middle East. This mtDNA lineage was likely introduced by a later wave of migrants into the Americas, as it is absent among the earliest known settlers.

Ancestral Whispers

25,942 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

BREAKING: The US House just voted 215 to 208 to end the Iran war. The same day, Iran bombed Kuwait’s main airport and the US bombed Iran. Both are true. The gap between them is the whole story. The vote is historic, and misunderstood. It is the first time either chamber of Congress has passed a measure against this war since it began more than three months ago, and 4 Republicans crossed the aisle to do it. But it stops nothing. It is a concurrent resolution: it never reaches Trump’s desk, it still has to pass the Senate, its legal force is disputed, and Trump will contest it. It does not end the war. It measures how toxic the war has become. So why did 4 Republicans break? The rebuke was aimed at Trump’s handling of the conflict and, in the reporting’s own words, the economic fallout, a war that has rattled the global economy with no end in sight. That is oil propped up by a draining reserve, fertilizer the world’s biggest importer now pays nearly double for, and the strait still shut since February. Congress just voted on the price of crude and bread. It only called it a war. But the same afternoon, the war got bigger. Iranian drones and missiles hammered Kuwait’s main airport, killed 1 and wounded more than 60, and forced it shut. The US answered with a strike on an Iranian military site on Qeshm Island, inside the Strait of Hormuz. Israel kept hitting Lebanon, the sticking point Tehran says any deal must cover. The mediators were already cut off. Oil ticked up about 2%, Brent back near $97, while the strait stayed shut. This is the new phase: a divergence. Abroad, the war is widening, Gulf states hit, Iran hitting back, talks frozen. At home, the will to keep paying for it is cracking for the first time. The binding constraint is sliding off the battlefield and onto the floor of Congress. Increasingly, the limit is not Iran. It is the bill. The vote will not stop the war. But it is the first time the cost of one shut strait reached the floor of the House. The war is not ending. The willingness to keep paying for it is.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

62,895 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING ON MONDAY... Four things are breaking at the same time. Interest rate hikes by December is almost confirmed now. Not pauses. Not holds. HIKES. Everything priced on the assumption that cheap money returns just got repriced from scratch. Every leveraged position, every rate-sensitive asset, every model built on a pivot that isn't coming. Japan officially entered yen intervention, that sounds technical. Here's what it means in practice. Japan is burning through reserves defending a currency that's been collapsing for months. And to fund that defense they sell what they own. US Treasuries, at scale, Into a bond market that's already under pressure from every other direction. China hasn't stopped, while everyone was watching Iran and the Fed, China has been quietly and consistently dumping US Treasury holdings for weeks. No announcement, no fanfare. Just steady selling that shows up in the data for anyone paying attention. And the AI rally is dying in real time. The momentum that carried Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Meta to valuations that made no fundamental sense is reversing. Funds that loaded up on the AI narrative at the top are now the ones selling into every bounce. The multiple that drove three years of outperformance doesn't survive a rate hike cycle and a liquidity crisis simultaneously. Now put all four together. Rates going up, liquidity going out. The world's two largest foreign Treasury holders selling simultaneously. And the primary growth narrative of the last three years losing believers by the session. When liquidity disappears across multiple layers of the financial system at once markets don't correct. They don't dip, they don't give you a clean exit. They crash fast and they crash hard. Stocks. Bonds. Metals. Crypto. There is no rotation trade that works when everything is being sold to cover everything else. There is no safe haven when the people who need cash are selling whatever has a bid. Insiders are already out, funds are already cutting. The rotation happened this week while retail was still debating whether to buy the dip. By the time Monday's open confirms what's coming it's already too late to position. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money Many will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

169,405 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

#ZimElection2023 CHAMISA RAN HIS CAMPAIGN LIKE AN INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE WITH NO STRUCTURES AND EXPECTED TO WIN AND BECOME PRESIDENT WITH NO MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT This is what Nelson Chamisa said on 21 June 2023 about the strategic thrust of the campaign of his CCC in the 2023 harmonised general election held last week: "our [CCC] campaign is going to be basically a presidential... our [CCC] focus is not to be in parliament but to be in government. We [as MDC opposition] have been in parliament for a long time, that's not our [CCC] station of choice at the moment". The fact that Chamisa thought he could win the presidential election even if, or regardless of whether, his CCC won a majority in Parliament, explains his crushing defeat. An election in Zimbabwe is defined in terms of section 4 of the Electoral Act which provides that: election” means— (a) the election of a member of Parliament; or (b) an election to the office of President; or (c) an election for the purposes of the Rural District Councils Act [Chapter 29:13] or the Urban Councils Act [Chapter 29:15]; as the case may be. These three elections used to be held separately before they were harmonised for the first time in the 2008 election in terms of section 38 of the Act. It is odd and even irrational, and it defies the logic of the harmonised general election for any political party that seeks power to govern the country as a whole to only target – as did Chamisa in the 2023 harmonised general election held last week –winning only one of the three elections, just the presidential election. It is foolhardy for a political party to say its strategy and focus is only to win the presidential election, without basing that strategy and focus on winning the local authority and parliamentary elections, as well. Such a strategy, if it can be called a strategy, renders the presidential candidate no different from an independent presidential candidate who contests for the presidency without the advantage of the structures of a political party. Simply put, a presidential candidate in Zimbabwe cannot win a presidential election if the candidate does not have a campaign strategy that is based on his or her political party winning a majority of wards in the local authority election, and a majority of constituencies in the parliamentary election. If it’s an independent presidential candidate, then he or she must have ground structures of one sort or another, or forget it. Chamisa contested the presidential election as if he was an independent candidate, and he boasted about it, without relying on his CCC and without any ground structures. In the circumstances, just how or why did Chamisa expect to win the presidential election by effectively running as an independent candidate? Which structures did Chamisa expect to use, or did he in fact use to campaign for the presidency in every street and every village, across the length and breadth of the country? Since by his own admission, as quoted above and reflected on the attached video clip, Chamisa was clearly not relying on his CCC to win the presidency. This begs the question: by not relying on CCC structures, and by not having alternative ground structures in the streets and in villages, did Chamisa think that ZanuPF members and supports would vote for him, as an act of God, perhaps? Was Chamisa's presidential election campaign, for him an article of faith, in other words was it about his belief that God had chosen him, and that he would win regardless of whether or not CCC won a majority in the local authority and parliamentary elections? Where did Chamisa and his supporters in Zimbabwe and among the legions of his fans in America and Europe think he would get the necessary number of polling agents to monitor the voting and vote counting at the country’s 12,374 polling stations, and to secure the 12,374 V11s from those polling stations, given the fact that he actually ran for the presidency as an independent candidate, expecting to be supported less by his own CCC party and more by the members and supporters of ZanuPF? Does this kind of strategy make sense to anyone on earth? And, does that strategy make sense to Nerves Mumba and his Sadc Election Observation Mission or to any other foreign election observation mission that was in Zimbabwe last week like, say for example, the European Union Observer Mission or any of the several observer missions from the United States that were in Zimbabwe to observe the elections? How did the various foreign election observer missions and Chamisa’s social media supporters expect him to win the presidential election, not only where and when his CCC party was losing the local authority and parliamentary elections but, and critically, where Chamisa himself did not believe that the local authority and parliamentary elections were important or necessary for him to win the presidency? The fact that the loquacious, belligerent and inflammatory foreign election observer missions that are peddling falsehoods about the elections, and Chamisa’s social media supporters who claim with no evidence that Chamisa won, did not raise a finger against the results of the local and parliamentary elections that were declared at 1970 wards and 209 constituencies well ahead of the declaration of the result for the presidential election on 26 August, clearly means that there was no problem with two of the three elections that make up Zimbabwe’s harmonised general election. Only after the declaration of the presidential election result on 26 August did all hell break loose. It must be asked, again, how did anyone expect Chamisa to win a presidential election whose campaign was – as per Chamisa’s deliberate strategy – organised and pursued as if it was the presidential campaign of an independent candidate? Chamisa’s presidential election campaign was not based on the CCC parliamentary election campaign or on CCC’s structural capacity on the ground, strangely, it was based on the expectation that ZanuPF members and supporters would vote for Chamisa. Why on earth did anyone expect ZanuPF members and supporters to vote for someone whose base is ever singing cacophonic noise that ZanuPF must go, and hurling insults at the incumbent party, its officials and its supporters? What kind of politics is that? You are contemptuous of ZanuPF and anyone associated with it, but you expect ZanuPF members and supporters to vote for you. This expectation does not compute, certainly not in electoral politics. As things turned out, ZanuPF members and supporters who are registered voters voted for their party candidates in all the three elections: local authority election, the parliamentary election and the presidential election. As a result, in the parliamentary election, CCC won just 73 constituency seats. There's just no way that CCC's 73 constituency seats in the National Assembly would have boosted Chamisa to win the presidency. No ways. In Zimbabwe's first harmonised general election in 2008, Morgan Tsvangirai did well in the first round of the presidential election primarily if not only because the two MDC formations used their round structures to win a majority in Parliament with a combined strength of 110 constituency seats, while ZanuPF garnered 99 seats and an independent got one seat. This was the first time since independence in 1980 that the opposition commanded the majority in Parliament. So, clearly, in 2008 Tsvangirai was propelled by the solid parliamentary performance of the MDC formations. The same structural dynamic was conspicuously absent for Chamisa in the just ended harmonised general election. Chamisa ran a solo presidential election campaign and, predictably, it went horribly wrong. The fact that CCC did not field local authority candidates in 90 wards made a bad situation worse for Chamisa, and it was further compounded by the fact that CCC did not have ground structures to harness and harvest from the loose and unreliable protest vote, especially in the wards and constituencies outside CCC strongholds, which in fact used to be MDC strongholds in the days of Morgan Tsvangirai!

Prof Jonathan Moyo

98,230 просмотров • 3 лет назад

Day 2: Israel decimales Iranian Installations - Iran Retaliates Unprecedentedly Overnight Israel and the US have been relentlessly bombing Iranian territory on the second day of the war, launching strikes primarily from Iraqi and Saudi airspace. Approximately 1,000 targets have been hit in Iran, including air bases and bunkers. The Iranian navy was also targeted, with 3 to 4 warships sunk. However, it's worth noting that only one of these vessels was modern; the others date back to the 1960s. The hunt for Iranian missile launchers continues, with Israel striking several mobile launchers and anti-aircraft units daily. This is an extremely arduous task, as estimates from The Military Balance suggest Iran may possess up to 500 mobile launchers and hundreds of SHORAD systems. On this second day, Iran decided to strike five bases/airports being used by US-Israel forces all at once. The Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base was hit by multiple ballistic missiles, with several reports of smoke rising. Similarly, Iraq's Ain Al-Asad base was targeted. But nothing compared to the intensity of the attacks on Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and Ben Gurion Airport, which came under several ballistic missiles overnight. And do you know what the biggest problem is? Iranian missiles are slipping through Israeli and American air defenses like a hot knife through butter. Yesterday and today, I've shown videos where launchers fire up to 9 (or more) interceptors in attempts to down a single Iranian missile, often with little success. Iran's retaliation against US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE continued on the second day, mainly using drones. As I mentioned yesterday, Iran has proven that the war is only just beginning. It targeted Israeli cities with modern missiles that disperse submunitions during reentry, significantly expanding the affected areas. These missiles had never been used before in combat, showing that Iran is now deploying its most advanced systems, which are also far more resilient to interceptors. At the current rate, interceptors will run out soon, and panic will grip both Israeli and American leadership. Both sides are failing in their primary objective: significantly reducing Iran's launch capacity, which remains high, with roughly 450 missiles and 850 drones ready in just two days. If this pace holds, defensive munitions won't last more than 4-5 days. Based on what we've observed, Iran launches 200-220 missiles per day, while the coalition expends no fewer than 700-1,000 interceptors (or even more), with very limited success. In the best-case scenario, this gives about 5 days of defensive ammo left; in the realistic (worst-case) scenario I've estimated from the interceptions I've seen, it's only 4 days. This puts enormous pressure on the leaders of both countries to seek a ceasefire. I believe that if Iran refuses a ceasefire, both Israel and the US will push for Gulf countries to enter the war, aiming to bolster defenses and deter further Iranian actions. The entry of these countries would be paramount for the US and Israel due to their air support and, especially, their naval power. These Gulf nations possess approximately 400 vessels, including frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats. But until that happens, the war boils down to the same question: What runs out first, Iran's missile launch capability or the coalition's interceptors?

Patricia Marins

736,120 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад