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BREAKING: Tesla is leading Germany's new EV subsidy program. 🇩🇪 • Tesla ranks #1 among all individual brands for subsidy approvals. • Holds a 74% lead over second-place Škoda. • Trails Stellantis by just 192 approvals, despite Stellantis combining seven brands. • Q2 registrations reached 16,028, more than four...

57,699 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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So… with a show of hands, who’s buying the fuckin dip? 🙋🏻‍♂️ $TSLA keeps handing out opportunities to the ones who can see the forest through the trees. The market and short-term minded investors seem to be obsessing over one quarter, while I’m looking at where this company is going over the next 5-10 years. Bro… this is what I see: • Deliveries are up +25% YoY to a RECORD second quarter. • Revenue is up +26% YoY to $28.2B, pushing Tesla above $100B in trailing 12-month revenue for the FIRST TIME EVER. • FSD subscriptions up +56% YoY to 1.48 million, with a record 55%+ attach rate on new North American Tesla deliveries. • Energy storage deployments up 41% YoY, with Megapack demand continuing to grow. • Services revenue up 50% YoY, becoming a larger, higher-margin part of the Tesla’s business. • Robotaxis are now operating across seven major metros, with Cybercab production officially underway. • Optimus production lines are being installed this year. • And despite investing more aggressively than ever, Tesla still finished the quarter with $43.5 billion in cash. Sure, margins were under pressure. And yes, free cash flow was negative. But this is bc Tesla is spending $ billions building AI infrastructure, expanding factories, ramping Cybercab, Optimus, batteries, and compute. The Tesla team is investing to build and be the leader for the next decade. Always remember, the biggest returns rarely come from buying when everything feels safe… they come from buying when everyone seems to be shitting their pants, while the fundamentals remain intact. NFA, of course… it’s just my two cents from a nobody. But I’m bullish then ever on the future of Tesla.

Teslaconomics

27,632 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Breaking news 🗞️ 🚨 Tesla just quietly solved a problem in Australia. The Model X is gone from our market. But the new Model Y L Premium AWD might actually be the closest thing we have to a replacement. And honestly… it makes a lot of sense. ⚡ Tesla Model Y L – Key Specs • 0–100 km/h: ~5.0 sec • Range: ~681 km WLTP • Top speed: 201 km/h • Seating: 6 adults • Supercharging: 250 kW • ~288 km added in 15 min 💰 Australian pricing (before on-road costs) Model Y Long Range AWD → $68,900 Model Y L Premium AWD → ~$74,900 So for roughly $6k more, you get: ✔ 3 rows ✔ 6 seats ✔ Much larger cabin ✔ ~400L extra cargo capacity ✔ Longer wheelbase ✔ Even more range 📊 Quick comparison Model Y Long Range AWD • 5 seats • ~600 km range • 0–100 km/h: 4.8 sec • $68,900 Model Y L Premium AWD • 6 seats • ~681 km range • 0–100 km/h: 5.0 sec • ~$74,900 So performance drops slightly, but practicality goes way up. 🇦🇺 Why this matters in Australia Since Tesla stopped selling the Model X locally, there has been a real gap in the lineup for larger families. The Model Y L doesn’t completely replace the X. You lose things like: ❌ Adaptive air suspension ❌ Driver instrument cluster ❌ Falcon Wing doors ❌ Some luxury interior touches But you still get: ✔ Tesla software ecosystem ✔ Supercharger network ✔ Massive range ✔ Practical 3-row seating And at a much lower price than a Model X ever was. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Who this is perfect for • Growing families • Current Model Y owners needing more space • Former Model X buyers • Anyone considering EV9 / EX90 but wanting Tesla’s ecosystem Personally, as a Model X owner, this is the first Tesla sold in Australia that actually feels like a realistic successor. I’m seriously considering replacing my Model X with the Model Y L, possibly around the end of Q2 or mid-Q3 this year. Not a perfect Model X replacement. But for Australia right now? This might be Tesla’s smartest family vehicle yet. ⚡🇦🇺 ORDER NOW : Tesla Australia & New Zealand Tesla AI

Tesla in the Gong 🇦🇺🦘🤖🚕

21,519 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Woah... the Tesla Semi is no joke. The Tesla team really made it the best semi truck in the world. Just check out the main stats shared from Jay Leno's video. • It goes 500-miles for the long-range model, tested fully loaded and also has a a 325-mile standard-range option available - they both handle max payload • It does 1.2 MW charging, which recovers ~60% of the battery (~300 miles of range) in just 30 minutes during mandatory driver breaks • Has a drag coefficient of ~0.4, which is lower than a Bugatti Veyron bc of the bullet-shaped cab and radical center-driver seating (fyi this is a ~7% improvement over previous design) • The battery is engineered to last 1 million miles, has the same cells as the Cybertruck • It's 50% cheaper to operate in California and nearly 20% cheaper per mile nationwide, this includes everything like energy, maintenance, no oil changes • While Jay Leno was hauling 60-70,000 lbs GVW, he said “I don’t even feel like I’m pulling anything…” • The Tesla Semi fleet already logged >13.5 million miles total, with one truck approaching 440,000 miles with 95% uptime • It's ~1,000 lbs lighter overall + 2,000 lb EV weight exemption keeps it at full payload parity with diesel trucks • Regen braking is so strong it descends steep grades at highway speed with almost zero use of service brakes • The truck is proven in Alaska winters with heat pump and minimal range loss • It has a turning radius like a Model 3/Y despite being a full-size Class 8 truck • Tesla has a new dedicated factory near Giga Reno ramping high-volume production this year (tens of thousands annually) with strong customer demand already locked in If I were a business, the Tesla Semi is a no-brainer!

Teslaconomics

129,568 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Today, I took the new Lucid Gravity SUV out for a quick drive. Here are my initial thoughts of the car and the drive: Materials & Seats: I have to say, this is a nice vehicle. The interior feels very premium, and the materials feel expensive. The perforated vegan leather seats are plush, provide good support, and hug you nicely. I sat in two Gravitys, one specced with the $4,200 Tahoe Brown vegan leather seats (really liked that color) and one with the all-black interior. The massaging seats are also surprisingly useful. Unlike the gimmicky ones in many cars, these actually feel great and not like a tiny mouse poking your back. I’d use them regularly if I owned one. The powered second-row seats are roomy and comfortable, with plenty of space for legs and feet. One small gripe I have: the grab handles on the interior feel like very cheap, hollow plastic. Design: The Gravity leans more toward minivan styling than SUV, but I actually think it works. Lucid managed to fit a whopping 120 cubic feet of cargo capacity into this thing. For context, that’s about 24% more than the Tesla Model X (91.6 cu ft), even though the Gravity is an inch shorter. It’s also just 10% less than the Cadillac Escalade IQ EV (131 cu ft), despite the Escalade being more than two feet longer. The 6K OLED panoramic display looks great, but the software felt a little laggy at times and is tough to see in direct sunlight. The steering wheel button design isn’t my favorite, but I do like the flat-top, flat-bottom design, Reminds me of Cybertruck’s wheel. Cargo loading is very convenient. With the air suspension lowered, the rear load floor is super low, making it easy to get things in and out. The trunk opening, though, is oddly shaped. I found the hatch uncomfortably close to my head, but raising the air suspension helps a little. Taller folks may still run into that issue. Showroom Employees: I met three Lucid employees at the showroom, one of whom had worked at Tesla for 10 years. All of them were very nice and knowledgeable. Sound System: It’s VERY good—great bass response, not muddy. It has Dolby Atmos, and it rocks. The Cybertruck still has the best factory sound system I’ve ever heard, but the Gravity’s is still great. ADAS: Unfortunately, I didn’t have much time to try it out, so I can’t give an opinion. But the 360-degree camera view is nice. It makes parking much easier and has a curb-rash alert so you don’t scrape your expensive wheels. Test Drive: The Gravity I drove, including options, was priced at $115,000. The ride felt firmer than I expected, even in the softest air suspension setting, but it was still comfortable. The sportier modes were fun and deliver that classic, quick-acceleration EV experience. The steering feel struck a good balance—sporty, but not tiring for everyday use. Visibility is good, and the glass windshield that extends past your head is cool (though I still think the Model X windshield is more immersive). Charging: The Gravity has native NACS and can charge at speeds up to 220 kW at Tesla Superchargers. In general, the vehicle is capable of up to 400 kW charging speeds. Final Thoughts: As Tesla fans, we can sometimes be tough on non-Tesla EVs, but I think the Gravity SUV is evidence that Tesla’s mission is working: accelerating the advent of sustainable energy. Tesla’s mission and past work helped pave the way for a vehicle like the Lucid Gravity to exist and come to market. While Lucid’s path to profitability is still in question, and while the Gravity is expensive (for now), even from my short time with it, this feels like Lucid’s first truly great product. Only the $94,900 Grand Touring trim is available right now, but the company says the less expensive Touring trim will come out late this year for $79,900. We shall see. More photos and videos of mine in the thread below:

Sawyer Merritt

110,465 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Just finished a one-week trip to China. I've now "survived" all the major (~20) L2 self-driving and robotaxi vehicles in both the US and China. Some thoughts & observations: ▶️L2 self-driving I tested major brands like $Huawei, $Li, $NIO, $Xpeng, and $Xiaomi. Overall, they exceeded my expectations. The rides were not overly cautious and handled complex situations (yes, road conditions in China are very challenging!) quite well. Nothing compares to $Tsla's approach. I see imitation learning/end-to-end as the only effective approach for self-driving. While Chinese peers perform well on main roads, they struggle on frontage roads due to reliance on high-precision maps and rule-based methods (e.g. cars stopped in the middle of the road where there was no clear white lining). Chinese EVs' self-driving capabilities are far ahead of those from US and EU brands. I doubt any Chinese players can profit from L2 self-driving, not because it’s not useful, but because it’s hard to differentiate, and price wars dominate the market in China. Chinese consumers and regulators seem much more receptive to self-driving. Even with a 5/10 self-driving capability, cars are practically *hands-free(!)* Insurance-wise, for L3+ cars, OEMs bear responsibility for incidents, so OEMs avoid labeling cars as L3+. ▶️Robotaxi I tested major brands like $Didi, and $Bidu. I'd rate equal to $Waymo, and it's ahead of other peers. However, the same issue applies here: user experience is nearly perfect (in Yizhuang, Beijing), but expansion is the real question. Chinese robotaxi companies are very sophisticated. While the rest of the world focuses on technology, Chinese peers treat it as a product, considering unit economics, operations, mass production, etc. Interestingly, most companies expressed a preference NOT to operate fleets themselves. They aim to be asset-light and let fleet managers handle operations. Policy Support: China has a very clear approval process, driven by data (autonomous driving distance, fully driverless distance, intervention rate, passenger ratings, etc.). ▶️Chinese EVs In major cities like Beijing or Shanghai, EV adoption (green license plates vs. gas cars with blue license plates) seems to be 40%+. If 40% of cars on the road are EVs, then EV penetration (defined as the % of new car sales) must already be over 50%. In shopping malls, the ground floor is filled with EV showrooms—easily 10+ brands, many of which are unfamiliar Chinese brands. It appears almost too easy to make an electric car, which is a stark contrast to the US. $Xiaomi, for example, can achieve a 10% gross profit margin in its first year of operation, compared to $RIVN's -45%. Additionally, $Xiaomi cars are priced at 30% of $RIVN's price. It's fascinating to see how China transitioned from "couldn't make their own gas cars at all (only JVs)" to "dominating EVs globally." The government deserves credit for setting the direction and executing effectively. China now controls the entire supply chain, with $CATL holding 40% of the global market share. 🔹How did it happen? The success of the industry Incentives were set just right: the government provided incentives early on to make EVs and gas cars have comparable MSRPs, allowing consumers to choose based on functionality. This approach differs from how the IRA offers incentives... Perfectly competitive market: $TSLA was brought in, and competition was welcomed, unlike the US, which has a 100% import tax on Chinese EVs. Strategic regulations: License plate restrictions were used effectively; for example, taxis and minivans are required to be EVs. 🔹The challenges Despite the success, the industry faces challenges with low-margin companies and struggling stocks. The intense competition shows no sign of ending. Well-funded global OEMs and Chinese state-owned car companies continue to subsidize, leading to new EV brands emerging annually. The natural tendency in China is to race to the bottom. I think this ties back to China's history as the "world’s factory," where manufacturers price products at "cost plus" versus the US and developing countries, which price based on "affordability/value creation." 🔹The wow EV feature >Software features that surprised me the most: - Everything in the car can be voice-controlled. Not just simple tasks like playing music; users can adjust the height of the steering wheel and set the temperature easily. - Self-parking, which $Tsla has yet to release to all FSD users, is already a table stake in China (I'd rate the quality as 10/10). >Other fun hardware features: - Mini fridges in the car - Infotainment systems - IoT: remote access the car/home via cellphone - all connected together - Heads-up displays - UV-protected glass roofs: $Xiaomi took $Tsla's design, but the glass roof of the $Xiaomi car is made of double layers with silver, blocking 99.9% of UV and infrared rays...as a result, heat is no longer a problem inside the car

Freda Duan

399,124 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

The problems in Russia’s oil and gas sector are already becoming systemic. Russia is refining less oil, transporting it at a higher cost, facing problems with export infrastructure, and already losing oil and gas revenues. Let’s take a look at what exactly is happening inside Russia. First, the Russian authorities themselves are no longer treating the shortage as a short-term disruption. A complete ban on diesel exports was introduced in early July, and it is quite likely to be extended through the end of the year. Gasoline exports are banned until January 31, 2027, and jet fuel exports until the end of November. Russia has also started importing additional petroleum products from Asia and Belarus. Second, Russia is physically refining less and less oil. According to Kpler, Russian refineries processed around 3.8 million barrels per day in July - the lowest level in more than two decades. EA Analytics estimates the figure even lower, at approximately 3.6 million barrels per day. For comparison, the normal level for this period in 2020-2025 was 5.3-5.6 million barrels per day. Third, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are continuing. A cycle has effectively formed: strike - repairs - partial recovery - another strike. Following the August 21 attack, the Perm Oil Refinery, with an annual capacity of 13.1 million tonnes, was completely shut down. Since August 2025, at least 25 Russian oil refineries have been targeted. Fourth, the diesel shortage is making the economy more expensive - increasing the cost of harvesting, reducing the resilience of Russia’s logistics system, and consequently affecting prices overall. Fifth, even the oil Russia manages to produce is becoming more difficult and expensive to export. In the first half of August, exports from western ports amounted to around 2.3 million barrels per day instead of the planned 2.7 million. Novorossiysk was particularly affected: shipments fell to around 400,000 barrels per day, compared with 800,000-1 million in June-July. Previously, problems at refineries could be partially offset by increasing crude oil exports. But when refineries, ports, terminals and tankers are all being targeted simultaneously, this becomes much harder. Exports have not collapsed, but they have become more expensive and less predictable. The same applies to petroleum products: in July, seaborne exports of fuel oil and vacuum gasoil fell by around 12%, to 2.4 million tonnes. The situation with gas is structurally worse. The Power of Siberia pipeline has already nearly reached its contractual ceiling - around 38.8 billion cubic meters per year. Power of Siberia 2 is primarily constrained by price: China wants gas at a significantly lower price than Russia is willing to sell it for. LNG faces even more problems: the EU has already begun phasing out imports, while redirecting supplies to Asia means longer and more expensive logistics. China is increasing its purchases of Russian gas, but it has not replaced Europe and will not replace it quickly. The most serious problem is the budget. In the first half of the year, Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell by 22.7% year-on-year, and by 16.8% over the first seven months. By January-April alone, the federal budget deficit had reached 5.88 trillion rubles, exceeding the planned deficit for the entire year. On top of this come the costs of refinery repairs, air defense, fuel imports, alternative routes, freight and insurance. Despite all these losses, we can see that Russian oil and gas revenues have not yet collapsed, although adaptation is becoming increasingly expensive. For now, the Kremlin is being helped by the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, which is keeping oil prices high. At the same time, Russia’s ability to refine and export this oil is deteriorating. So far, high prices are offsetting these losses. If the situation around Hormuz stabilizes and Brent prices fall, the current logistical and fuel problems could become much more serious for Russia.

Anton Gerashchenko

39,422 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Holy shit. Four and a half years. My role as Marketing & PR Manager at Syscoin has officially ended, and I needed to write this before I posted anything else. So please, stop DM'ing me about Binance AMA's for $200 and telegram trade groups that have all the alpha, and 100k "active" members in them lol. The day I knew web3 was going to be the industry I live and die in started in Dubai. Binance Blockchain Week, March 2022. We threw what I still think was one of the best side events in blockchain history at the time, and from that night forward we had a standard. Syscoin stayed the true web3 vibe that everyone else strayed away from for casinos and meme tokens that died 2 years later. We always had the vibe. The right room, the right people, the right energy. That became the rhythm of the next four years for us. Syscoin stayed imitated but never duplicated over the next four years. Austin. Nashville. Las Vegas. Colombia, Singapore, Dubai, Davos. Medellín, where I first met Fernando Paredes at Devconnect, in a room full of builders who were actually building. Conferences and events all blur together when you've been to enough of them. But the side rooms don't. The 1am conversations don't. Those are the moments that built the network. Those are the moments I'll carry. Through every one of those rooms I had the honor of working alongside some of the biggest names in this industry. VC's, Founders, exchange leadership, protocol engineers, journalists, influencers and KOLs who actually move markets, builders shipping in silence. The kind of access most people in this space never get and with current industry conditions may actually never get again. I never took a single one of those rooms or connections for granted if you can't already tell by my X following. Behind all of it, the receipts that don't fit on a tweet. Over 400 terabytes of content, video, graphics, strategies, brand systems, blueprints, four years of building the marketing engine for a chain trying to scale Bitcoin without compromise. Thousands of hours, research, everything we needed to make it through cycle after cycle with our integrity, honesty and trust intact. Hundreds of strategies and playbooks that never even made it to market. There were good times. There were bad times. Anyone who tells you a four-year run inside a top-tier crypto project was all good times is selling you some straight bullshit. The project came out the other side. The team came out the other side. The work continued. That matters more than the noise. To everyone who made this run what it was. Every founder who picked up a call, every KOL who actually showed up, every journalist who took the meeting, every member of the community who never asked for anything but stayed loyal anyway. Thank you. So what's next for me? This astronaut isn't leaving the field. He's walking into the Wasteland of what he's had to watch our industry become over the last decade. Somewhere out there is the oasis. I'm going deep into AI. AI infrastructure and AI-native marketing, the place where autonomous agents, content systems, and Web3 product strategy actually meet. The next decade will define what the next century holds and I'm here to capture that. I've spent the last two years quietly building in that lane and I'm ready to make it the lane. If you're still in Web3, AI, or the seam where the two collide, my DMs are open. What a ride. — 1DC

1DC

14,875 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

‡ The Puma in the Sam F. Davis Stakes A three-year-old colt named The Puma made his debut at Gulfstream in a 7f. MSW race on January 10th. He raced up on the pace and held well to finish 2nd behind the Mott-trained first-starter Chief Wallabee, while 9 lengths clear of the 3rd-place finisher. It was a promising performance, and the colt recorded an 86 Beyer figure. He was entered in an 8.5f. MSW at Gulfstream on Saturday, and was listed as the 7/5 favorite. However, his connections chose to scratch the colt, and instead contest the 8.5f. Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, against tougher company, and over a different track surface. Will it prove to have been the correct choice? Well, if providing short-term thrills for the owner(s) is the goal, then perhaps. But in terms of the development of the horse, I would say that the answer is probably not. It is possible that he will surprise me by running well, and improving further in subsequent races, without missing a beat. But I am partial to classical, old-school training methods, typically employed by the very best trainers, which include more gradual step-ups in class, and strong foundations, or "bottoms". To be fair, trainers these days are often under great pressure from their owners, especially with young colts, and they have much more limited options than those who trained back in the '70s and '80s. Charlie Whittingham raced Sunday Silence four times in MSW and Alw. races before placing his future HOF Champion into stakes company. The undefeated HOF filly Personal Ensign, undefeated through 13 starts, competed in just one stakes race through her first four starts for Shug McGaughey. Today, there are fewer options available, and particularly in the form of allowance races beyond sprint distances. This is partly due to the excessive number of restricted stakes races available to two and three-year-old runners, which has had the effect of displacing what were once more natural, less taxing, and ultimately beneficial developmental patterns. Of course there are horses that are able to overcome less than ideal development, but many others, often forgotten, fall by the wayside, either due to physical and/or mental setbacks that result from rushed programs. The breed-to-sell paradigm is a big catalyst, as is the fever that afflicts too many owners, namely KY Derby fever. *** In terms of stamina, The Puma's pedigree is encouraging, at least superficially, as his young sire, Essential Quality, was a Travers winner over 10f., and a Belmont winner over 12f., while his dam, Eve of War, won up to 9f. He is the first foal to race from his dam. But from what I can discern from the replays of of his race, and the available clips and images on the OBS site (he was a $150k purchase through last year's April sale), I'm not confident that he will ultimately stay much beyond a mile, and with just one race under his belt, the Sam F. Davis may prove to be a stiff challenge. My concerns revolve mainly around two characteristics, his action and body type. Though not as extreme as those which I have highlighted in previous posts, The Puma does display distorted action, as can be seen in the attached clip of the finish of his lone race. He is on the right (turquoise cap). There are distortions in both front legs, and such inefficient action can have the effect of limiting distance capabilities, especially with speed horses. The second characteristic is that he appears to be a strongly-made colt. If you watch the second clip, from his OBS walk video, you should be able to see that he appears to have a muscular shoulder, and a fairly wide chest. Taken together, The Puma's action and body type are more likely to be found in sprinters than "two-turn" horses, and as suggested above, I would be surprised if he were ultimately able to stay effectively over Classic distances. In terms of pedigree, The Puma should have no trouble with the 8.5f. distance of the Sam F. Davis. But given all of the above, and an honest pace, I'm of the opinion that he is unlikely to win. It will, in any case, be interesting to see how he fares, and how he develops over the coming months.

Tinky

13,182 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Why is the market selling off today? (Save this). Today's selloff is bigger and messier than what we've seen lately, KOSPI crashed almost 11% overnight, chip stocks are getting hit everywhere and it's not because AI demand suddenly disappeared but rather a bunch of fears piling up at once that I think are getting way overplayed. Start with the AI ROI thing since it's been building since last week's earnings. Tesla and Alphabet both kicked off earnings season with big capex numbers and negative free cash flow and even with strong revenue growth both stocks got hammered. That set the tone of we don't care if capex is growing, show us the cash, and it's carrying into this week with Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Apple all reporting, which isn't helping the nerves. But look at what actually happened with Alphabet, cloud revenue grew 81%, total sales grew 24%, that's not a company torching cash on nothing, that's a company scaling into demand it can barely keep up with. Negative free cash flow during a capex supercycle is normal, you build the data centers and buy the GPUs before the revenue shows up. Judging a buildout phase like it's a mature business is the wrong lens, and that's basically what happened last week and what's still happening today. Then there's China chip competition, which is honestly the biggest accelerant of today's move. CXMT's IPO shares rose over 466% and combined with headlines about China's homegrown DUV lithography progress, it triggered a brutal rout in Korean chipmakers, Samsung fell as much as 13%, SK Hynix over 14%, Kioxia nearly 18%, dragging the KOSPI down almost 11% and into an eighth circuit breaker this year. That spilled straight into Nvidia, ASML, Sandisk and Seagate here in the US, with Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1% before the bell. But here's the thing, five DUV units this year against ASML's 131 a year, running performance closer to a 2008 design, is not an equipment moat collapsing, it's a headline that's gotten repeated so much this week it's built its own gravity. These tools are aimed at mature nodes like automotive and industrial chips, not the leading edge logic or HBM that actually drives the AI trade, so the read through to Nvidia, ASML or Applied Materials earnings power is basically nothing. The CXMT pop is scarcity, people bidding up the only pure play China memory stock they can get their hands on, not a sign that oversupply is coming. And Korean chipmakers dropping 12 to 14% in one session looks a lot more like leverage unwinding after a parabolic run than a real rethink of Samsung or SK Hynix's HBM backlog, which both companies have already said is basically sold out for the year. Geopolitics is actually the one spot where the news should be helping, not hurting. US and Iran hostilities seem to have paused for now, which should be easing oil driven inflation fears. If this were purely a geopolitical panic you'd expect oil spiking and yields following, but that's not what's happening, this move is chip specific and Asia led, not an oil shock like a week or two ago. Rates and the Fed are still in play, decision lands tomorrow, and people are nervous about higher for longer language even though a hike isn't the base case. On top of that, reports that Nvidia's five year credit default swap costs jumped by a record margin are getting read by some as a credit risk signal tied to all this AI debt spending. But a one day CDS spike during a market wide panic is a fear indicator, not proof of an actual credit problem, spreads on every big name widen fast when volatility spikes, Nvidia's balance sheet hasn't changed in the last 24 hours. Fed futures are pricing in essentially no chance of a surprise hike tomorrow, this is a hold meeting, and I'd bet the hawkish jitters fade fast once Warsh actually talks. Then there's the bigger liquidity and positioning story, which I think explains more of today's violence than any single headline. KOSPI is down nearly 29% for the month now, steeper than 2008, mostly because Korean chipmakers had turned into crypto like gambling tokens, running way too far, too fast on retail leverage and margin debt, and now unwinding just as hard on the way down. That's positioning excess getting flushed, not HBM demand disappearing or hyperscalers pulling back. Nothing in the actual order books, capex guidance or HBM contract pricing has changed, DRAM and NAND prices are still climbing quarter over quarter, nobody's canceled a GPU order or a data center project. What changed is how much leverage was sitting on top of this trade, and that's getting ripped out in one ugly session. This is one of the scariest looking selloffs we've had all year but scary looking and actually broken are two different things. Every headline driving today, the China lithography story, the CXMT IPO, the Nvidia CDS spike, the Fed jitters, looks a lot less scary once you dig into the actual numbers, and none of it touches real AI infrastructure demand or supply. This looks like leverage and sentiment unwinding, not the long term thesis breaking. If you want to see exactly what I'm buying into this, join Milk Road Pro for just $1 using the link below.

Melvin

58,124 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 Beijing Rolled Out the Red Carpet for Trump AND Putin in 6 Days. Its Own Investors Just Rolled Out the Exits — ¥2 Trillion Gone. ¥2 Trillion, that's ¥2,000,000,000,000. Twelve zeros. More than the entire annual GDP of Saudi Arabia. Erased in one trading session. Six days ago President Donald Trump left Beijing on Air Force One. Yesterday (May 20, 2026) Vladimir Putin walked down a red carpet into the Great Hall of the People. Today — May 21, 2026 — Chinese investors did something Beijing's propaganda machine cannot spin: they sold. An estimated ¥2 trillion (≈ US$280 billion) in market value was erased from mainland Chinese equities. The Shanghai Composite slid 2.04% and the Shenzhen Component tumbled 2.07% — both three-week lows. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down roughly 1%. The names that bled the hardest are the very ones Xi has been parading as proof of "tech self-reliance": Cambricon -3.19%, Zhongji Innolight -4.21%, Eoptolink -3.74%, Huagong Tech -5.79%. Even CITIC Securities — a mainland brokerage, not a foreign sceptic — noted that the pullback dates from May 14. That is the day Donald Trump landed in Beijing. This is what the market thinks of the past two weeks of choreography. The Trump Summit Beijing Sold as a Triumph The Trump–Xi summit (May 14–15) was a state-visit spectacle: military honor guards, a banquet at the Great Hall, a personal welcome from Xi. The substance was thinner. Atlantic Council's verdict: a big show with little to show for it. CNN's politics desk was more clinical: nebulous agreements on agricultural purchases, tepid commitments on oil, no firm deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump himself said tariffs didn't even come up. Al Jazeera noted something rarer — the two sides released readouts that disagreed on what was actually agreed. The morning after the summit, US stock futures sold off across the board. Investors voted before the pundits did. Beijing's framing: historic visit. The tape's framing: priced in, sold off. The Putin Summit Beijing Sold as Strength One day before today's selloff, Xi gave Putin a red-carpet welcome — their second meeting in under a year. The two leaders presided over a sweeping signing ceremony covering trade, technology, nuclear energy and media cooperation. Xi called the relationship the "highest level in history." A joint statement took aim at Trump's planned "Golden Dome" missile shield. Optics: an axis. Reality: Putin came to Beijing with one big ask — locking in the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, the project Moscow needs to replace gas sales lost to Europe — and left without it. The Washington Post's headline was blunt: "Putin fails to secure Xi's approval for Power of Siberia 2." Price, financing and timing all remain unresolved, with Beijing reportedly holding out for prices roughly half of what Moscow wanted. Even the marquee deliverable didn't deliver. Why the Tape Doesn't Believe the Narrative Mainland investors aren't watching CCTV. They're watching the data. China just emerged from the longest stretch of producer-price deflation in decades — 41 consecutive months from October 2022 through this past February. The streak only broke in April, and not because demand came back. It broke because the Iran war pushed energy prices higher. That is imported inflation, not organic recovery. Strip out energy and the demand picture remains thin. Goldman Sachs says the property crisis is in its fourth year and not yet at a bottom. Chinese exports to the United States fell nearly 29% year-on-year in November. Youth unemployment officially stood at 16.3% in April; independent analysts argue the real figure is materially higher. Private investment remains weak — Chinese firms aren't short of liquidity, they're cautious on returns, on enforcement consistency, on whether the demand will be there tomorrow. This is the macro that propaganda cannot photoshop. The Neighbourhood: A Quiet Encirclement Look at Asia's tape today against Shanghai's. Tokyo's Nikkei rallied more than 3%, within striking distance of an all-time high set just last week. Seoul's Kospi exploded 8.42% higher — its largest single-session point gain on record, led by Samsung and SK Hynix. In Manila, "Balikatan 2026" just concluded with Japanese combat troops participating in the largest US-Philippines drills for the first time ever. Washington's Indo-Pacific lattice — AUKUS, the Quad, the trilateral US–Japan–Philippines and US–Japan–Korea formats — the architecture Beijing labels an "Asian NATO" — continues to thicken. In Brussels, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has tied future EU-China relations explicitly to how Beijing handles Russia's war on Ukraine. And Xi is reportedly preparing his first visit to North Korea in seven years — a tell about which axis Beijing is doubling down on. Tokyo up. Seoul at a record. Shanghai down. That is not a coincidence. That is a verdict on which side of the new geopolitical fault line global capital believes will compound. Two Trillion Yuan Do Not Lie You cannot propaganda your way past a price chart. State media can stage the Trump welcome as triumph and the Putin embrace as solidarity, but the people who actually have skin in the game — Chinese savers, Chinese funds, the foreign capital still inside the wall — sold into both stories. ¥2 trillion in a single session is not a technical wobble. It is a referendum. The Trump–Xi–Putin theatre is over. The bill is being presented. And Beijing's available responses — tighter capital controls, more "national team" buying, more margin tightening, or a sharper turn toward Moscow and Pyongyang — none of them rebuild confidence. They only manage the optics of its absence. What gets priced in next? Capital controls? A managed devaluation? Another "national team" rescue? Or does the next leg down arrive before the response does? Original article by me Aric Chen. Views are my own — welcome to discuss!

Aric Chen

125,716 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

While most of the market was selling off the Fed was raising rates and the CLARITY Act was failing in the Senate Zcash decided to do the exact opposite zcash:native was trading close to $400 at the end of June Today it’s around $1,485 That move looks completely irrational until you look at what happened before it The rally actually started with a disaster Zcash launched in 2016 with the same 21M supply limit and halving structure people already understood from Bitcoin The important difference is privacy Bitcoin shows the sender, receiver and amount. Zcash can hide all 3 when someone chooses to use a shielded address Privacy isn’t forced on everyone, it’s optional That detail matters because the entire current story comes back to whether people are actually choosing it In June, researchers disclosed an inflation vulnerability inside Orchard, Zcash’s main shielded pool The bug had reportedly existed unnoticed for roughly four years and, in theory could have allowed someone to create counterfeit ZEC without the public being able to detect it There was no evidence that anyone had exploited it But once the possibility existed, the market had to ask an uncomfortable question Is the 21M supply really 21M? Price collapsed, people pulled coins from the shielded pool and confidence disappeared almost overnight Then Ironwood arrived in July The compromised Orchard pool was permanently sealed and replaced with a new shielded pool Coins moving into the new system had to pass through a controlled migration process allowing the supply to be accounted for again A counterfeit coin couldn’t simply enter the new pool unnoticed The code was repaired but more importantly the supply became believable again That’s the first half of the current ZEC move: repair The second half is expansion Roughly 28% of circulating ZEC is now held inside shielded pools up from around 23% a year ago Shielded activity has also grown substantially People aren’t only talking about privacy, more of them are actually using it Who owns those shielded coins? The honest answer is that we don’t know And not knowing isn’t a flaw in Zcash, it’s the product You can see value moving from transparent addresses into a shielded pool but you can’t see who controls it or where it goes afterwards That’s why claims that “governments are secretly buying” or “insiders are hiding supply” should be treated carefully, the system doesn’t give us enough information to prove or disprove either story What we can measure is the transparent side Grayscale’s zcash:native now gives investors regulated exposure to ZEC through a US-listed ETF, that demand isn’t hidden, it sits inside a regulated KYC-compliant product So the lazy “this is all black money” explanation doesn’t really fit the data we can see The simpler explanation is that demand for financial privacy rises as surveillance and restrictions increase Europe has placed additional pressure on privacy coins under MiCA, some exchanges have restricted ZEC and other jurisdictions are treating privacy assets as a separate regulatory category Normally, regulatory pressure is supposed to reduce demand With privacy, it can also remind people why the product exists Zcash is changing in another way too For years it had one clear job: private payments Now Zcash Shielded Assets are opening the door to private tokens, collectibles and NFT experiments. ZecBit is working on shielded NFT infrastructure while other projects are experimenting with private ownership and sealed-bid auctions That ecosystem is still early, I wouldn’t pretend otherwise But for the first time Zcash is developing a culture layer on top of its privacy layer That gives people another reason to hold and use the network beyond sending money The timing of this rally is probably what makes it stand out most The Fed raised rates The CLARITY Act failed to advance Bitcoin briefly traded around $75K ZEC still climbed roughly 35% While everyone else was waiting for direction from the Senate and the Fed a network built around escaping financial surveillance barely cared Maybe that’s the point For me this move stands on two legs The first is repaired trust after Ironwood The second is growing utility around shielded assets and applications The metric I’ll keep watching isn’t a politician a headline or a mystery whale It’s the amount of ZEC entering and remaining inside shielded pools If that number keeps rising the privacy premium has real usage behind it If it stalls the rally becomes much easier to describe as speculation There is a fair bearish argument here too F2Pool co-founder Chun Wang has described the move as a narrative-driven short squeeze. He has a point privacy still isn’t the default setting and a near-vertical move always attracts leverage and momentum traders The chart is stretched so I’m not treating every green candle as a safe entry $1,400 is the first short-term pivot Below that, $1,250-$1,300 is the main demand area I want to see defended A clean break and hold above the recent high around $1,530 would open $1,650 first followed by a possible extension toward $1,800 Lose $1,100 and the structure starts looking much weaker September 30 is the next date on my calendar, features that aren’t ready for the coming NU7 upgrade by that deadline may be dropped from this release So yes, part of this move may be a squeeze But it’s difficult to call the entire rally empty when the network has repaired its biggest credibility problem shielded usage is growing and a new application layer is beginning to appear at the same time Zcash spent years selling one idea Privacy when you need it The market may finally be deciding that it needs it Not financial advice, just how I’m reading the data and the chart

Arjantit

35,092 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

**Doris Yin Speech at China Guizhou Zunyi GCV Barter Conference** Hello to the community leaders, GCV ambassadors, merchants, and pioneers of GCV Guizhou in China! Today is January 12, 2025, marking the first GCV Barter Conference in China in New Year and the 13th Barter Conference overall. I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to the organizers of this conference, the Guizhou Zunyi GCV Community, and the co-organizers, Barter Huishang (Guizhou) Digital Economy Industry Group Co., Ltd. I also want to acknowledge the following GCV ambassadors for their active dedication and contributions to this conference: **GCV Ambassador of China:** - Yang Zhizhong - Cai Zaiqiao **Ambassadors of Guizhou Province GCV:** - Wang Shiqiong - Cai Weisheng - Guo Jiaqing **Zunyi GCV Ambassadors:** - Wang Jianbo - Luo Nanlu **GCV ambassadors at the district and county level in Zunyi City** Additionally, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to our numerous GCV merchants and sponsors. Without your support, we would not have been able to hold such a grand and large-scale event. Today's gathering in Zunyi, a sacred site of the revolution, reminds me of the Red Army's 25,000-mile Long March. Their perseverance and sacrifice continue to inspire us. The Zunyi Conference took place from January 15 to 17, 1935, and exactly 90 years later, we are gathered here today. The defining characteristics of the Zunyi Conference included the commitment to uphold the truth, correct mistakes, establish the correct leadership of the Party Central Committee, and creatively develop and implement strategies that fit the nature of the Chinese revolution. Today, our Zunyi Conference will also be recorded in the history of blockchain, as every effort you have put in has contributed to building a strong network ecosystem. Our partial fiat and partial distribution policy serves as a solution for the rapid development of the ecosystem during the closed mainnet of the Pi Network. As we all know, the first quarter of this year will bring about the successful mainnet launch of Pi Network. After six long years of challenges and perseverance, all of our pioneers will have the opportunity to witness this significant historical moment. What an exciting and proud day this will be! It has not been easy for everyone to persist through these six years; it requires great blessings, unwavering faith, and the courage to overcome difficulties. Today, our pioneers in Zunyi, Guizhou Province, gathering for this GCV barter conference holds great significance. I see that ten companies are providing products for barter, with nine companies, including Guizhou Meitan County Daoqin Hospital and Barter Huishang (Guizhou) Digital Economy Industry Group Co., Ltd., sponsoring this event. Once again, I extend my heartfelt thanks to all of you. The GCV Barter Conference serves multiple purposes. It is not only about creating GCV data or demonstrating the strength of our China region to CT, but also about showing how closely we align with their vision and mission. Additionally, it provides robust evidence for a substantial number of KYC and migration initiatives in China. More importantly, what we do today aims to boost China’s future economic development. Once the main network of the Pi Network is launched, we anticipate a significant demand for Chinese products from numerous international pioneers, which will in turn generate a large volume of export orders. At the same time, there will be international merchants looking to export their products to China. Once OM, import and export transactions will be conducted using the new currency, facilitating the vision of a stable currency and enabling seamless and reliable exchanges with fiat currency. Therefore, the merchants who engage now will have the advantage of being early adopters. The Pi Network offers a partner program and a MapofPi program. To participate in the partnership, businesses are required to have a company website. We invite businesses with websites to join us. However, if you do not have a company website, you can still join the Mapofpi program, which encompasses a wide range of industries, allowing participation from both large companies and small traders. Registration for the Mapofpi does not require a business license or website; various entities including shops, hospitals, schools, hair salons, accounting firms, law firms, restaurants, and hotels are welcome to register. Please select an active merchant and support GCV at $314,159. Prior to the OM launch, it is advisable to use partial fiat currency and partial Pi to ensure that merchants can cover their costs and fulfill their tax obligations. Recently, on January 9, we established the China GCV Industry Chain Alliance, which aims to create an industrial chain that facilitates the circulation of Pi among merchants, thereby reducing the burden of exchanging fiat currency after OM. During the enclosed mainnet, you can assist merchants in registering as Pi Network Partners and Mapofpi . Ms. Lumari is our Global GCV CT executive director and her goal is to have 200,000 registered Mapofpi merchants worldwide. My personal target is to reach 100,000 registered merchants in China alone. This goal is achievable given the over 58 million enterprises and more than 20 million pioneers in China. If we can effectively convey that Pi Network WEB 3.0 blockchain technology will significantly enhance human productivity and that the business opportunities from accepting partial Pi and partial FIAT during the 60 days before OM will present numerous benefits and minimal risks to merchants, then it is likely that no merchant will be unfavorably surprised by the initiative. This strategy offers a multitude of advantages with virtually no downsides. Furthermore, it benefits pioneers by allowing them to transfer purchasing power to the community and minimize fiat currency expenses in their daily life. Consequently, the GCV data we generate will significantly benefit the Chinese pioneers, as a large number of registered merchants can transform the China region from a high-risk area to a safe zone. Not only can this region be promoted to a VIP area, which would enjoy expedited KYC and mapping processes, but it will also allow pioneers and merchants to thrive together in our ecosystem. This collaboration will enhance the prosperity of our country and empower the China region to contribute to the welfare of communities worldwide. Once OM, it will play a crucial role in the economic development of both China and the world. If you pay attention to our migrartion speed, you might have noticed that it has slowed down recently. From December 17th to around the 30th, the migrating speed was over 50,000 to 100,000 per day, but now it has dropped to just over 10,000. What is the reason for this decline? If it was previously possible to migrate over 100,000 per day, why has it changed? The CT has stated that they will OM until the first quarter of this year to bring the migratiion in line with KYC amounts. However, if it's technically feasible to achieve a higher migration speed, why isn’t it being done? The answer is quite simple: it depends on what everyone does with the Pi after such large migration numbers. If pioneers rush to buy and sell, hold onto their Pi coins, or trade at low value, it will impact the speed and efficiency of the next migration in these regions. This principle is not only theoretically valid but has proven true in practice. For instance, countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia have a solid educational foundation in GCV. Most pioneers there are highly aware of the risks involved in participating in the black market, which allows them to generate a substantial amount of GCV data. As a result, their migration speed is notably fast, and there are many large wallet migrated. To help the CT regain momentum, we all need to cooperate. Engage with the migrated Pi and participate in the GCV barter ecosystem. Be cautious of individuals who aim to deceive you for personal gain; devaluing the Pi often serves as a tactic to exchange something small for your valuable treasure. It's crucial to educate pioneers about the true value of what they hold and encourage them to avoid dishonest practices. I urge everyone to actively participate in partial Pi and partial FIAT barter. The more GCV data we generate, the more secure our wallets will be. Therefore, it's important for everyone to read and share the Pioneer Handbook I wrote which has been translated into 30 languages to raise awareness among pioneers. By learning from the Pioneer Handbook and participating in GCV bartering, we can improve China's migration efforts and foster ecological development. This stability can ensure that the value of our Pi endures for future generations, rather than becoming worthless in a few years. Wouldn't that be something we want to preserve for our children and grandchildren? Today's message is lengthy but very important, and I hope you take the time to understand it. I wish our Guizhou Zunyi Conference great success! Thank you to all GCV Ambassadors, Merchants, and Pioneers for your incredible support! Your efforts today are planting the seeds for a prosperous future, and I hope you find safety and fulfillment in the days to come. May your wishes come true! Wishing you health and happiness! Let’s work together to create a better future! I also hope you all have a joyful Chinese New Year! Doris Yin 🪷🪷🪷 Founder, Global GCV Movement January 12, 2025

Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷

18,340 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

You Can't Vibe-Code Trust Avishai Abrahami, Co-Founder & CEO of Wix , interviewed by Harry Stebbings (kevin andres) Summary: Wix trades at a $2.8B market cap on $2.1B of revenue while the market ascribes roughly zero value to a business throwing off $400M a year in free cash flow. Wix CEO Avishai Abrahami's argument is that the market can't yet price what AI actually threatens: the moat is trust and business logic, and neither gets vibe-coded away. His response is to own the disruptor (Base44), train his own narrow models, and stay committed through a storm he insists always arrives on a random Wednesday. 1. Trust is the moat. The real value of Salesforce is trust: JP Morgan and huge banks let it hold all their customer data, and the CRM itself is a small part of that. "What other platform will JP Morgan trust for their customers' data? None." That trust took years to build and can't be reconstructed by an agent scraping a database, so the companies whose value lives in trust survive the SaaS apocalypse while the ones reduced to piping get commoditized. 2. The business-logic wall. "You're not going to vibe-code Shopify no matter how good you are. The business logic is too hard." Wix tested this directly: they asked a team of professional developers to build the operating logic for a single hairdresser in Base44, gave up after a week, brought in a stronger team, and still failed two weeks later. Complex operational software is far harder than a demo suggests, which is why the pizza shop and the hairdresser stay Wix customers rather than build their own stack. 3. Own the disruptor. Wix bought Base44, a one-person company, for $80M, and it now does over $150M in ARR, roughly double what they paid. Abrahami frames the future as three buckets: owners who never want to build, owners who vibe-code everything themselves, and a mix in the middle over the next five or six years. Rather than bet on which wins, Wix owns the tool customers would defect to, so a customer who switches platforms still switches to Wix. 4. Trading on someone else's news. "Today we are trading on other companies' news. We're not trading on Wix news. We're trading on what OpenAI or Anthropic or Google are saying." Base44 alone, valued on vibe-coding peer multiples, should be worth around $8B, which means the market assigns less than zero to Wix's core. Abrahami's response is to detach: he doesn't wake up checking whether the stock moved 20%, because the only thing he can influence is the business. 5. The narrow model. Wix fine-tuned and combined its own models and now matches top-tier frontier quality on Base44 tasks at far lower cost. The logic: they sit on a huge stream of training data from watching what users try and where they fail, so a model built for Base44 can skip what frontier models carry, like knowledge of Chinese poetry, and go deep on what someone means when they say "build me a task manager to tell my boyfriend where he's wrong." A narrow target is easier to hit than a frontier model, and Wix already runs a trained model on website generation that's faster, cheaper, and makes fewer errors, retrained weekly on a live feedback loop. 6. Quality before cost. When Harry cites Chamath's claim that open source runs 14-16x cheaper, Abrahami pushes back: that holds for small tasks, but for something as complex as Base44 the savings land at 5-10%, and his own model runs 1-30% cheaper than frontier, not the order of magnitude people assume. More to the point, this is the wrong time to chase cost: "20% more quality, 20% less cost, I'll go for the quality." It's a brand-new market that's just starting, and the job now is to make the product better. 7. The but is very big. "We all give too much credit for AI. It's amazing, it's incredible, it's super powerful, but the but is pretty big." He asked Claude to write a safety protocol and got six mandatory gates, then pushed back on each one and watched the model cave until only one survived, downgrading the rest from "must test" to "might want to look at later." We over-trust these systems, and that reflex, treating a Reddit post as equivalent to research published in Nature, is where the danger lives. 8. Customer support still breaks. Wix has 3,500 people and its single biggest department is customer support, serving 192 countries. They tried hard not to build their own AI support agent, tested many off-the-shelf products, and concluded flatly: "It doesn't work. We tried, we tried again, it didn't work." The gap between hyped AI support startups and what actually ships in production is the tell that the technology is earlier than the marketing, maybe five years from being different. 9. Buybacks as dividends. Wix had $1.5B sitting in the bank it couldn't put into a major acquisition because it was focused on the new product and Base44, so it bought back stock at a low price, with admittedly terrible short-term timing. Abrahami is unbothered: "The big question is where it's going to be in three years, not what happened in the last three months." He argues buybacks are a fantastic, underused tool, essentially a dividend to every shareholder, and companies should lean on them to balance stock-based compensation instead of endlessly diluting. 10. Execution, not finance. A low stock price makes M&A currency less valuable, but Abrahami says that's not his real constraint. Base44 was a one-person company; Wix had to build an entire company around it, staffing it with people pulled from the core. "I don't know how to do another one of those at the same time and have the same quality." The bottleneck on the next acquisition is execution capacity, not the balance sheet. 11. Chosen to be here. The one thing money buys beyond food security is freedom, and the deepest form of that freedom is knowing you're here by choice. "I'm here because I've chosen to be here. Nobody made me." He could move to Costa Rica or dance carnival in Brazil, and choosing to stay and run a public company through a crashing stock is where he finds his power. Money also made him more impatient and a bit lazier, and more rational because he's no longer deciding from fear. 12. The random Wednesday. Resilience starts with accepting the storm will come, because we assume that if yesterday was easy tomorrow will be too, and reality doesn't move in gentle slopes. "The worst thing that happens is probably some random thing on some random Wednesday. It's not something you get a lot of warning for." His anchor, borrowed from Babylon 5, is that you get there when you get there and the weapons you have are the weapons you have, so the only real question is whether you're doing the best you can with what you control.

Gokul Rajaram

22,843 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 Protocol Update #9 It's incredible how time flies when you’re laser-focused on building and delivering the essential products that form the backbone of decentralized finance. Hatom has now been live on the Mainnet for over a year, and we're proud to say that this entire period has been free of issues or downtime. Our platform has been battle-tested during volatile market conditions, and each of our products has performed exactly as expected—solidifying our place as a cornerstone in the #MultiversX ecosystem. Describing last year as “incredible” feels like an understatement. We’ve witnessed unprecedented growth across the entire #MultiversX ecosystem, particularly in terms of TVL and yield opportunities. The day before Hatom launched its Lending Protocol and Liquid Staking on Mainnet, #MultiversX had a total TVL of $95 million. Within two weeks, the ecosystem surpassed $200 million in TVL, with Hatom driving over 50% of that growth. At its peak, Hatom reached over $280 million in TVL, accounting for more than 70% of the chain’s total TVL. What's even more remarkable is that, after initially using Treasury funds to incentivize users, Hatom has shifted to distributing rewards solely from protocol revenue. This marks the start of a fully sustainable, real-yield model, proving our products' rapid product-market fit and long-term viability. A Recap of the Past Year Here’s a quick overview of what we’ve accomplished in the past year: • Launched the first Lending Protocol in the #MultiversX ecosystem, along with the Liquid Staking Protocol on Mainnet. • Surpassed $100 million in TVL within just five days of the launch. • Deployed the HTM Booster Module and Accumulator. • Launched the Tao Bridge and Tao Liquid Staking, bringing over 33k $TAO into the #MultiversX ecosystem in just two weeks. • Implemented multiple upgrades to core infrastructure. • $HTM became the second-largest ESDT token after $EGLD. • Distributed over $3.85 million in rewards to our users. We are happy to announce that Hatom V2 is now live! After an incredible year of growth, we’re excited to take the next step toward becoming the leading liquidity hub across multiple chains. We invite you to explore our newly rebranded website at marking the beginning of our omni-chain journey. This rebranding reflects our bold vision and sets the stage for a full overhaul of our dApps, delivering a fresh and enhanced experience for all users. Achieving self-sustainability in such a short time, we now focus on research and development. Instead of pursuing many ideas, we’re committed to building high-impact products that create perfect synergies within our ecosystem. With that said, let’s dive into the key topics of this update: USH and Booster V2. Hatom USD (USH) We’ve highlighted USH in several updates, and it’s great to see the community recognizing its potential. USH is set to be one of the most impactful products on #MultiversX, providing a key revenue stream for Hatom while helping us maintain competitive rates and long-term sustainability. USH is the result of extensive research and careful development, designed to seamlessly fit into the Hatom ecosystem. While many DeFi projects are raising millions for new stablecoins, USH stands as another powerful product within our hub. The time has finally come for USH to be unveiled to the public, and we are excited to announce that USH will officially launch on Devnet on 28th October. While we’ve thoroughly tested for bugs internally, we’re excited to engage the community in this critical phase. To encourage participation, we’ll offer incentives for those testing USH on the Devnet, with more details to be shared at launch. Understanding USH's architecture is key to how it functions within our ecosystem. Let’s break it down step by step, starting with an explanation of each component. Facilitators USH’s minting process is driven by Facilitators—smart contracts responsible for the controlled minting and burning of USH. At launch, two primary facilitators will handle these tasks, each with distinct functionality: 1. Lending Protocol Facilitator The Lending Protocol Facilitator allows users to mint USH using a variety of supported collateral assets directly into the Hatom Lending Protocol. Unlike traditional lending mechanisms, where interest rates fluctuate based on the utilization rate, the minting of USH has fixed interest rates, thanks to Hatom's unique role as the entity managing the minting process. In a scenario where a user is minting USH through this facilitator using multiple assets as collateral, the protocol automatically prioritizes collateral with the lowest Minting APY. Let’s consider an example where a user deposits: - $1,000 in USDC (with a collateral factor of 80% and a 2% Minting APY) - $1,000 in BTC (with a collateral factor of 75% and a 3% Minting APY) - $1,000 in HTM (with a collateral factor of 70% and a 4% Minting APY) Based on these parameters, the user can mint a maximum of $2,250 worth of USH, distributed as follows: - $800 from $USDC (80% of $1,000) at 2% Minting APY - $750 from $BTC (75% of $1,000) at 3% Minting APY - $700 from $HTM (70% of $1,000) at 4% Minting APY The overall Minting APY will be a weighted average of these individual APYs, calculated based on the proportion of USH minted from each collateral type. Now, if the user decides to borrow only $1,000 worth of USH, the APY is determined as follows: - The first $800 will be borrowed from $USDC at 2% APY - The remaining $200 will be borrowed from $BTC at 3% APY This results in an effective Minting APY of 2.2%, reflecting a weighted average of the APYs across the borrowed amounts. It’s important to note that EGLD and wTAO, along with their liquid staking derivatives such as sEGLD and swTAO, can only be used as collateral in the Isolated Pools (which will be explained in the next section), not in the Lending Protocol 2. Isolated Pools Facilitator The Isolated Pools Facilitator allows users to mint $USH at zero interest using $EGLD, $wTAO, or their liquid staking derivatives ( $sEGLD or $swTAO) as collateral. Here’s how it works: When depositing EGLD or wTAO • These assets are staked through the Hatom Liquid Staking Protocol, generating the staking APY. • The staked assets are then deposited into the Lending Protocol, earning a supply APY, but are not activated as collateral. When depositing sEGLD or swTAO • When users deposit staking derivatives into the Isolated Pools, the protocol holds the staking derivatives, but the user's exposure is immediately shifted to the underlying asset ( $EGLD or $wTAO). This means the user no longer benefits from the staking rewards of the derivative, and instead, their exposure is entirely tied to the value and price movements of the underlying asset. • The staked assets are deposited into the Hatom Lending Protocol, earning the supply APY, but again not being activated as collateral. Since the protocol generates revenue from staking and supplying assets in the Lending Protocol, this income is used to incentivize the USH Staking Module. The protocol buys HTM tokens from the open market and distributes them, along with all fees generated by other facilitators, as rewards to stakers. We believe that the Isolated Pools Facilitator is one of the most important pieces of the USH ecosystem. Its potential impact on the TVL within both the Hatom ecosystem and the broader #MultiversX blockchain is immense and the revenue generated by this facilitator through fees will significantly bolster the overall growth of the protocol. To illustrate the potential of Isolated Pools, let’s use the following example: • $50 million worth of $EGLD is deposited into the Isolated Pools, generating a 6% staking APY • $50 million worth of $wTAO is also deposited, earning a 15% staking APY The total staking rewards generated from these assets would be: • $EGLD staking rewards: $50 million × 6% = $3 million annually • $wTAO staking rewards: $50 million × 15% = $7.5 million annually In total, the protocol generates $10.5 million in staking rewards annually. These rewards are then used to buy back HTM tokens from the open market, driving significant buying pressure on the HTM token itself. The purchased HTM tokens are distributed to USH LP stakers in the USH Staking Module, alongside the revenue generated by the Lending Protocol Facilitator. TVL and Yield Impact As we explore the broader impact of USH and the Isolated Pools, it becomes evident how these mechanisms contribute to the overall growth of the Hatom ecosystem, particularly in terms of TVL and potential yield generation. Based on the above numbers, if $50 million worth of $EGLD and $50 million worth of $wTAO are deposited into the Isolated Pools with a 75% collateral factor, we could mint up to $75 million worth of $USH. However, to prioritize safety, we’ll mint only 50% of the maximum, resulting in $37.5 million worth of $USH. In an ideal scenario, but also very unlikely, the $37.5 million $USH would be deposited in the Staking Module to generate rewards. In order for $USH to be deposited in the Staking Module, it is paired with another token (e.g., $USDC or $EGLD) to form Liquidity Pool (LP) position, contributing $75 million to the USH Staking Module. Additionally, the $100 million deposited in the Isolated Pools cycles through Liquid Staking and into the Lending Protocol, contributing a total of $300 million in TVL. Total TVL Breakdown: • $300 million from assets flowing through Isolated Pools ($100m) → Liquid Staking ($100m) → Lending Protocol ($100m) • $75 million from LP positions in the USH Staking Module Total TVL = $375 million As mentioned above, the $100 million deposited in Isolated Pools generates approximately $10.5 million annually in staking rewards (6% APY from $sEGLD and 15% APY from $swTAO). If all minted $USH is deposited into the Staking Module, the $75 million staked would benefit from these rewards, resulting in a 14% APY for USH LP stakers. On top of the protocol’s rewards, liquidity providers earn additional fees from their LP positions on decentralized exchanges, creating the perfect opportunity for all the participants in the USH Staking Module looking for attractive yields. USH Stability: The Peg Mechanism Ensuring the stability of USH is paramount, and to maintain its value close to $1 under all market conditions, we’ve implemented a robust dual peg mechanism. This system consists of two key layers of protection—Soft Peg and Hard Peg—designed to keep USH stable through both market-driven incentives and other mechanisms for scenarios where the Soft Peg mechanism can’t reclaim the peg. 1. Soft Peg Mechanism The Soft Peg Mechanism helps keep USH stable around its $1 value by encouraging market participants to act when USH trades above or below $1. When USH trades below $1 Users can buy USH at a discount, on a DEX, and repay their USH loans on Hatom, as USH is always valued at $1 on the protocol. This action removes $USH from circulation, helping to restore its price. When USH trades above $1 Users can borrow USH from the protocol at $1 and sell it on the open market at the higher price, increasing the circulating supply of USH and pushing its price back down to $1. 2. Hard Peg Mechanism (Redemption Mode) In cases where the Soft Peg alone cannot restore USH to $1 and its price drops significantly below the peg, the Hard Peg Mechanism is triggered through Redemption Mode. This mechanism allows any market participant to step in and help restore the peg by repaying USH loans for other borrowers, seizing their collateral at the full $1 value. It's important to note that Redemption Mode is only activated in the Isolated Pools and does not impact users minting USH through the Lending Protocol. Here’s how Redemption Mode works: When USH trades below $1 and the Redemption Mode is activated, redeemers can buy USH at the lower market price (e.g., $0.95), and use it to repay borrowers' debts at the full $1 value within the protocol. The redeemer receives collateral in the form of liquid staked tokens(such as $sEGLD or $swTAO) equivalent to the USH they repaid at its full $1 value, profiting from the difference between the discounted purchase price and the redemption value. The borrower being redeemed also benefits by receiving a redemption bonus, which allows them to keep a portion of their collateral after part of it is seized after loan was repaid. This system ensures that borrowers are not penalized during redemption, creating a balanced mechanism where both the redeemer and the borrower have something to gain. Redemption Mode differs from Liquidation in several ways: Redemption is triggered by USH falling below $1 and involves repaying borrower accounts to restore the peg. Both the redeemer and the borrower benefit, with the redeemer profiting from the price difference, and the borrower receiving a bonus from their collateral. Liquidation occurs when a borrower’s collateral falls below a certain threshold, making them risky. During liquidation, a portion of the borrower’s loan is repaid, and the collateral is seized, while also incurring a liquidation penalty. Redemption Mode uses a data structure known as a Red-Black Tree to efficiently monitor and rank all borrower positions within the protocol smart contract itself. This structure dynamically tracks borrowers based on their Borrow Limit Used, which is the percentage of collateral they have utilized relative to their borrowing capacity. The system prioritizes borrowers with the highest Borrow Limit Used, meaning those who have borrowed the most relative to their collateral are considered first for redemption. USH Airdrop Regarding the USH Airdrop, we would like to inform you that snapshots will end once USH is deployed on the Public Mainnet. The airdrop will be concluded shortly after, once all liquidity pools are stable and we determine the optimal moment to distribute the rewards to the community. USH Staking Module & Booster V2 The USH Staking Module will play a critical role in maintaining deep liquidity for USH while offering users high-yield opportunities. By staking USH LP tokens, such as USH/USDC and USH/EGLD, users can earn rewards generated by USH facilitators. This approach strengthens USH’s liquidity pools, making them robust enough to handle significant trades without destabilizing its price, thus reinforcing USH’s peg and overall stability. Beyond creating robust liquidity, the USH Staking Module serves as the key utility module within the USH ecosystem, designed to provide users with an opportunity to earn high yields on their USH holdings in a sustainable and organic way. All rewards distributed through the module are generated by various products across the Hatom ecosystem, ensuring long-term sustainability. For users seeking a more stable yield, the USH/USDC LP provides lower risk and steady returns. Those looking to leverage their EGLD holdings can opt for the USH/EGLD LP, which can be staked in the USH Staking Module. A key advantage of staking in the USH Staking Module is that rewards are based on the full value of the LP, not just the USH portion, maximizing your yield potential. As we continue to grow, we’ll be adding more LPs, providing users with even greater flexibility and options for staking their USH in the module. While our current focus is on LP tokens, we’re also exploring the possibility of allowing direct USH staking in the future, expanding the staking opportunities across the ecosystem. The Integration of Booster V2 with the Staking Module Booster V2 will be available for testing with the USH Devnet release, and with its introduction, we’ve strengthened the relationship between the HTM token and USH. Our ecosystem now features two independent boosters: one for the Lending Protocol and one for the USH Staking Module, each operating with the goal of maximizing yields for users. Key Improvements in Booster V2 Booster V2 brings several enhancements that elevate the functionality and user experience: Support for Multiple Token Types: Users will be able to deposit Pool Tokens, Farm Tokens, Dual Farm Tokens, or Staked HTM Tokens (via xExchange). Only the HTM portion will be considered for boosting. Unlimited Staking: The cap on HTM deposits will be removed, allowing users to stake without limits. This will foster a competitive environment where the more HTM you stake, the higher your potential APY. Integrated xExchange Management: Users will be able to manage their xExchange positions directly from the Booster dashboard. This will include creating pools, farming, dual farming, and staking HTM tokens, all from one convenient dashboard. Energy Management Integration: Booster V2 will allow users to manage their xExchange Energy directly from the dashboard, providing an additional way to boost rewards even further. Seamless Migration: Users will be able to migrate HTM between the Lending Protocol Booster and the USH Staking Module Booster without any cooldown periods, making it easier to optimize strategies across both modules. How the Yields Work Booster V2 will introduce a more structured and competitive approach to yield distribution across both the Lending Protocol and the Staking Module. HTM Booster in the Lending Protocol Base APY (First Batch): This is available to all users who stake a specific percentage of HTM relative to their collateral value. Any user can achieve this Base APY by staking the required amount of HTM. Boosted APY (Second Batch): After achieving the base level, users can boost their returns further by staking additional HTM, competing for the second batch of rewards. The more HTM staked beyond the base threshold, the higher the potential yield. USH Staking Module Yields Staking APY: Users who deposit USH-related LP tokens without boosting through the HTM Booster will still receive a Staking APY. This ensures that even passive participants which are not looking to stake their HTM in the Booster can take advantage of the USH Ecosystem to generate yields. Booster APY: Similar to the system in the Lending Protocol, users can stake HTM to unlock a Base APY. Beyond this threshold, any additional HTM staked will increase their APY in a competitive manner, allowing users to maximize their returns based on the amount of HTM they commit to boosting their positions. Rollout Plan for USH USH will be deployed in a phased rollout to ensure smooth implementation: Public Devnet: Open for testing, with incentives for participants to explore and stress-test the platform. Private Mainnet: A limited launch with partners to mint USH, bootstrap USH liquidity and generate initial protocol revenue. Public Mainnet: A full-scale launch, enabling all users to mint, stake, and trade USH. We know DeFi can be complex, which is why we’re committed to providing the tools and resources needed to navigate our ecosystem. With the USH Public Devnet launch, we’ll release updated documentation offering clear guidance on Hatom’s products. Developer documentation is also in the works, and we’re exploring the idea of a Hatom Academy for educational resources. Plus, we’ll soon roll out content focused on USH, helping users fully tap into its potential within Hatom and the MultiversX ecosystem. What’s Next? Hatom Pulse As Hatom grows, our focus remains on pushing DeFi boundaries while expanding across multiple ecosystems. Although this update doesn’t include a full roadmap—that will come later—our priority is clear: expanding Hatom across chains. To stand out in the competitive DeFi landscape, we’re committed to developing standout products. With that in mind, we’re excited to give you an exclusive preview of one of our most innovative products in development: Hatom Pulse. Over-collateralized non-custodial lending protocols, liquid staking, and over-collateralized stablecoins already exist on #Ethereum. What sets us apart is the synergy between these components within a unified ecosystem. By integrating these pillars, we tackle capital inefficiencies, allowing one protocol to enhance strategies that benefit the others, maximizing returns across the board. For example, when USH is minted, it means that EGLD is deposited, liquid-staked, and supplied in the lending protocol—all three protocols working in harmony. Hatom Pulse will elevate this synergy to another level, solving key issues faced by Aave, Compound Labs , and other leading protocols. We believe this innovation will be pivotal as we work to gain market share while expanding cross-chain. Our proof of concept will be deployed and battle-tested on #MultiversX, but the real growth will come when we scale this to markets that are thousands of times larger. This will be a turning point for Hatom. So, what is Hatom Pulse? On Hatom, like on Aave and other leading lending protocols, the largest assets used as collateral are often not borrowed, leading to substantial revenue loss for the protocol. This also results in very low income on the supply side, as borrowing fees depend on utilization rates, which only increase when borrowing activity rises. Generally, lending protocols are used to provide assets for borrowing stablecoins or for leveraging liquid staking strategies. This inefficiency locks up billions of dollars in dormant assets, and users earn very low supply rates on their collateral, which doesn’t help offset their loan interest. Hatom Pulse is designed to address these inefficiencies by leveraging the synergy between our existing products. It creates sophisticated vaults that activate dormant assets, unlocking advanced yield opportunities through a delta-neutral strategy. By utilizing assets like $EGLD, $sEGLD, $wTAO, and $swTAO, Hatom Pulse enables users to engage in delta-neutral strategies, where we long and short these assets on (CEXs), earning funding rates and staking rewards while keeping their assets intact. (The exact strategy, along with all the details, will be shared once USH is fully established). Initially, these vaults will operate on CEXs, where liquidity is highest, and will be managed through custodians like Copper.co to mitigate counterparty risks. Later, we plan to extend this to DEXs where all operations will be governed by smart contracts, ensuring full decentralization. serves as a strong proof of concept for us in this regard. However, our strategy will differ, as our focus will be on protecting the unit value, rather than the dollar value. Although Hatom Pulse is still in its research phase, early estimates suggest that this product alone could generate over 18% annual returns on $EGLD and more than 35% on $wTAO, with what we believe to be minimal risk. It’s important to note that these figures reflect current metrics based on internal calculations and may slightly differ upon product launch. But imagine reaching this on #Ethereum, while allowing users to borrow using their assets—this could be a disruptive protocol. We believe Hatom Pulse has the potential to become a cornerstone product as we transition into an omni-chain future. In a competitive DeFi landscape, it could give us a significant edge by offering something truly groundbreaking, capable of competing with well-established protocols across various chains. This strategy represents immense untapped potential. Hatom Pulse is being developed for risk-averse users who seek higher returns without excessive risk. By addressing inefficiencies in current DeFi strategies, we aim to offer a secure, robust option for yield generation that could rival established protocols. It's been an intense year for our team, and we sincerely thank the community for their patience, trust, and unwavering support as we've worked hard to build and deliver these groundbreaking products. As Hatom's omni-chain expansion nears, we remain focused on improving our existing products and researching new innovations to stay ahead in this competitive market. Our goal is to build a comprehensive DeFi ecosystem, accessible across all blockchains. With USH approaching its Mainnet release, we're proud of how our products have reshaped the DeFi landscape on MultiversX. By filling key gaps in the on-chain economy, we've created opportunities for users to generate yield, unlock the potential of decentralized finance, and provide strong utility for EGLD. In just over a year, we’ve built a strong ecosystem, but this is only the beginning. We’re ready to go even further, developing better products and unlocking new opportunities for our users. We’ll share more about our expansion plans in a dedicated post, staying focused on what matters most. Rest assured, what’s coming will be truly impressive for Hatom and our growing community!

Hatom Labs

182,997 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

‡ Brant – Fast, Expensive, and Worrying In a recent 2yo MSW race at Santa Anita, Brant, a $3m OBS March sales purchase, made a winning debut for his high-profile connections. Sent off at odds of 4/5, he tracked the pace before taking command on the turn, and drew off to win by 5 1/4 lengths. He recorded a very fast raw time, and a 101 Beyer figure. His high auction price was due largely to his having breezed an eighth of a mile in :09 3/5 at OBS. In the wake of the bidding, Amr Zedan, who purchased the colt on the recommendation of his trainer, Bob Baffert, and bloodstock agent Donato Lanni, was quoted in TDN as saying: "These horses are difficult to come by. He ticked all the boxes. He was a very precocious Gun Runner with a great pedigree. And more importantly, if you have someone like Mr. [Bob] Baffert in your corner, that gives you the courage and the guts to just go after quality. And you'll know they are in the best hands to turn them into champions. This one is for the team: Donato and obviously Bob and his ability to turn them into champions. So if you have the great team, the great training, the rest is easy. Was he pricey? Yes. But quality dictates price. So I never hesitated.” The hyperbole, and boilerplate optimism, are understandable, as even owners with very deep pockets prefer not to dwell on their inevitably long lists of expensive failures. But Zedan and their team have also enjoyed a number of high-profile successes, including Taiba, another Gun Runner colt, which won the Santa Anita Derby and the Malibu, both Grade I, before being retired to stud. Lanni, who has signed for at least some of Zedan's other good horses, was quoted as saying: "This is what the boss [Baffert] wanted and what Amr wanted. Gun Runner is a tremendous stallion and he worked really good and galloped out good. He did everything you want one to do.” Again, boilerplate, and if one were to take the reactions of the owner and agent at face value, it would be easy to arrive at the conclusion that the horse had no faults. But that would be naïve. So, let's first take a look at Brant's pedigree. Gun Runner is a "top" sire, and well-capable of getting high-class runners. It's a bit too early to fully judge him as a source of durability, but excluding his current crop of 2yos, his runners are only averaging 10 career starts. That number will rise, but likely not enough to reach, let alone exceed the contemporary industry average of ~15. In other words, though he himself raced 19 times, and won his swan song (the Pegasus World Cup) at five, there is no evidence to suggest that he is likely to eventually prove to be a particular source of durability. Brant's dam, Tynan, raced 13 times, and he is her first registered foal. His second dam, Pappascat, has produced at least five foals to have raced, and while only one has reached 20 starts, four of the five raced at least 12 times, which by today's degraded standards, isn't so bad. The fact that the coat color inherited by Brant, and his dam, can be traced to a notably unsound influence, Unbridled's Song, may or may not be meaningful. But I wouldn't ignore it as a potentially worrying connection. Brant's dam-sire, Liam’s Map, was lightly raced himself, and both his sire (US) and dam have poor records in terms of durability. As a sire, he has thus far produced numbers similar to Gun Runner. So while Brant's first two dams promise more than many that I have come across in similar assessments, and his sire displayed durability on the track, his overall pedigree suggests average durability at best. And what about the word that Mr. Zedan used twice in the above quote – "quality"? Well, Curlin is a quality sire, but in terms of bottom-line production, it leaves a lot to be desired. That's not to say that there are no good runners to be found, in fact the closely related Pappacap, under Brant's second-dam, was a Gr. III winner, and twice Grade I placed. However, through Brant's first six dams at least, I believe there to be just a single Grade I winner, Al Qasr, a Champion stayer in Peru, which appears under his fourth-dam. That is not, by any reasonable definition, a strong bottom-line, although it is fair to say that Brant's first dam is unproven. *** What might be learned from Brant's debut race? Everyone can see that he ran fast, and was much the best of that field, but I would say that there were some nuanced aspects of his performance that were both interesting, and worrying. Those nuances relate to his action, as viewed both through the pan shot, and head-on. Watching the basic (pan) view, Brant appears to display some "knee action". It isn't extreme, but also isn't the type of action that ideally suits dirt runners, and I wouldn't say that the colt appears totally comfortable. Here's a brief, related post on knee action, for reference: Then, we have the (embedded) head-on view, in which Brant displays seriously distorted action in his near-fore (left front leg; right when viewed head-on). It's a fairly extreme example of what is called "winging", and for a number of reasons, does not bode well for durability. Such action is never desirable, and is typically related to certain foreleg conformation flaws, which may include an offset knee, and/or toeing in or out, etc. Note also that under typical American racing conditions (i.e. tightly turning, left-handed tracks), the left front leg is subjected to the greatest torque, which amplifies the potential for injury. It should go without saying that there are occasional anomalies, horses with poor action that remain sound despite such flaws. But they are the exceptions, and it is not uncommon to find abbreviated careers associated with such action. For further reference, here is a link to a closely related post that I wrote after a filly named Amor Fati broke her maiden in eye-catching style in February of 2024. She has made just one further start, and hasn't recorded a work over the past 15 months. What's interesting about Brant is that there are two separate issues relating to his action, and that the some obvious mitigating steps that could have been, or should be taken, in efforts to keep him sound, were not, and are unlikely to ever be taken. First, with regard to his knee action, keep in mind that it is a characteristic that is more typically associated with turf horses. And guess what? Brant's dam was a turf horse. His second-dam was also at her best on turf, and was Gr. II placed on that surface. Also, in some respects, he physically resembles that female line more than his sire. Of course no one who spends millions on a horse that breezed exceptionally fast at a 2yo sale would be thinking "turf", given that the commercial market, and stakes schedules greatly favor dirt runners. But at the same time, it would be a mistake to assume that a fast breeze at OBS necessarily indicates that a given horse will be best suited to dirt. I say that partly because the OBS track features an all-weather surface called "Safetrack", which is far from being identical to dirt racing surfaces. While countless horses have gone through those sales and excelled on dirt, it should never been taken for granted that it will be a preference. And to further flesh out the point, take a look at Brant's breeze video through this link (his pedigree page can also be seen): Despite being rushed to cover a furlong much faster than he ever will again, I would say that he looks smoother, and displays slightly less knee action than in his recent debut race. Why? Could it be, perhaps, because he would prove more comfortable on turf and/or synthetic tracks, than dirt surfaces? Given how he ran first out, this is purely an academic point, as there is virtually no chance that his connections would consider switching surfaces, unless his form on dirt were to deteriorate badly. The second, more important point, relates to Brant's distorted action. I can't find a head-on conformation photo of the colt, but would be very surprised if he does not display flaws in his near-fore. Even in the very unlikely event that the leg were to appear correct, such distorted action would have been on display at the sale, as well as in pre-training at Eddie Woods' farm. And it defies belief that experienced horsemen who were prepared to purchase an extremely expensive horse for an important client would not have covered that base. Which in turn begs two important questions. First, why recommend the purchase of a very expensive horse, no matter how fast, that has yet to race, and displays such distorted action? Secondly, why choose to give such a horse to a trainer whose style and history suggest that injury risk would likely be amplified, rather than mitigated? The answers to those questions help to illuminate why the breed-to-sell paradigm is so insidious. As long as breeders and stud farms are willing to overpay for stallion prospects, and turn blind eyes to conformation defects, distorted action, lack of durability, and modest female families, the connections of horses like Brant need only hope that they hold together long enough to win one or two big races, enabling them cash in. These are the number of career starts made by Zedan's previous best (and expensive) male runners: 9 Arabian Lion 6 Arabian Knight 9 Muth 10 Medina Spirit 11 Hejazi And as long as the AGSC (American Graded Stakes Committee) continues to enable the paradigm through its dishonest KY Derby "prep" Grade I designations, the ultimately damaging feedback loop will likely continue. The answer to the second question is closely entwined, and should be obvious. For all of his faults as a trainer, Baffert has long produced results in stakes races that lead to valuable stud careers, so owners who wish to play the breed-to-sell game consider him to be a logical choice. Of course Baffert and Zedan are hardly alone in supporting the dubious paradigm. But that a horse like Brant could bring millions at a sale, and be given to a trainer who trains very hard, and has compiled a very poor safety record, underscores the extreme degree to which the value of durability has been marginalized by the industry. One final note, and it's a genuine qualification that I always make when producing this type of post, I hope that Brant will enjoy a long, injury-free career. But if I were a betting man...

Tinky

94,348 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

President Zelenskyy is in Canada today. His visit is primarily about air defense for Ukraine and how Ukraine can survive the winter. This is the right priority: the sky above Ukrainian cities is currently more important than any concepts. But I would look at this visit more broadly. Canada is currently restructuring its defense policy toward Europe, and Ukraine can take a significantly more important place in this restructuring than is visible from the list of aid packages. We are talking about the Canada–EU–Ukraine triangle. This is not an alternative to NATO, but rather an additional mechanism within Euro-Atlantic security. Why is this happening right now? There are four reasons: the lasting confrontation with Russia, growing threats in the Arctic and North Atlantic, Europe's need to take care of its own defense, and uncertainty regarding the duration, terms and conditions that the US will remain a guarantor of security. I will start with Canada. In 2025, PM Carney said that about 75 cents out of every dollar of Canadian capital defense spending goes to American suppliers. Therefore, Canada is now setting a course toward diversification. At the same time, there are no intentions to sever ties with Washington. Canadian defense-industrial strategy explicitly emphasizes strong relations with the United States. The second Canadian motive is the Arctic. Seven out of eight Arctic states are now in NATO. Russia remains the main military threat in the region, while China is increasingly taking an active interest in resources and routes. But for Ottawa, the North is also a matter of sovereignty. At the Canadian-Nordic Summit in Oslo in March, leaders specifically emphasized the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states. Against the backdrop of disputes surrounding Greenland and talk about a "51st state," a closer security partnership with Europe gives Canada more political support in these matters. And thirdly, let's be honest: in terms of military capabilities, Canada is not a giant. It only plans to reach 2% of GDP on defense this fiscal year. Canada's strength lies in geography and coalitions: in the fact that, together with the US, it secures NORAD while simultaneously building bridges to Europe. And why does Europe need Canada? Because Europe's need is not just weapons, but also the ability to move troops, equipment, and resources across the Atlantic. The JFC Norfolk command, which is responsible for maritime communications between North America and Europe, as of December 2025 also covers Denmark, Finland, and Sweden. The Atlantic, the North, and the East of Europe in NATO planning are increasingly becoming a single space. Canada in this scheme is the other shore of the Atlantic. The most interesting thing is that elements of the Canada-EU-Ukraine triangle are already working. SAFE is the first of them. This is a European concessional loan mechanism for joint defense procurement, worth EUR 150 billion. The main condition is that the money must work for the European defense industry. Therefore, at least 65% of the component value in a contract must be European. Under SAFE rules, items produced in Ukraine count as European, on equal footing with products from EU countries, Norway, or Iceland. Canada was also admitted to the mechanism, becoming the first non-European country to join. Joint production is the second one. In May, the defense ministries of Ukraine and Canada signed an agreement to produce Ukrainian reconnaissance drones in Canada for the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the Airlogix-Sentinel joint venture. Ukraine provides battle-tested technology; Canada provides manufacturing capacity and funding. This is no longer aid, it's a manufacturing partnership. The third one: money. The NATO Ankara Declaration recorded that European allies and Canada are already funding the vast majority of security assistance to Ukraine. The threats facing all three sides are also shared. The most vivid example is underwater infrastructure. According to Reuters that cites two Western officials, in the spring, Britain, Norway, and the US tracked Russian GUGI submersibles that were practicing the use of means for covertly disabling cables near Svalbard. For Canada, this concerns trans-Atlantic communications and Arctic surveillance. For the EU: cables, ports, and energy grids. For Ukraine: energy infrastructure and the Black Sea infrastructure. What does Ukraine bring to this arrangement? We bring experience that neither Canada nor most European armies possess: high-intensity warfare against Russia, mass deployment of drones, electronic warfare, intelligence, and protecting infrastructure under constant attack. Chatham House, in a May report, directly proposes integrating Ukraine into NATO's Eastern Sentry, as well as into the EU's Eastern Flank Watch and Drone Defense Initiative, arguing that Ukrainian solutions could make the defense of the continent against drones more cost-effective. Ukraine, without a full-fledged navy, forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw its main forces from Sevastopol, Crimea. This experience is directly relevant to both the Baltic and the North Atlantic. Shared maritime situational awareness from the Black Sea to the Arctic (Canadian space capabilities, European surveillance programs, and Ukrainian practical experience) would allow monitoring the Russian navy, shadow tankers, and underwater infrastructure as a single theater. Cooperation between Canada and the EU can reduce dependence on unstable supply chains. Canada possesses significant reserves of critical materials, important among other things for the defense industry, whereas the EU depends on China for critical raw materials. Combining Canadian resources, European manufacturing capacity, and Ukrainian technology could create a distinct trans-Atlantic supply chain. Energy cooperation should be long-term. Canada does not yet have sufficient infrastructure on its Atlantic coast to quickly replace Russian energy resources in Europe. However, it can gradually become one of the sources of the EU's energy security. This applies not only to LNG, but also to critical materials, nuclear fuel, and the protection of energy infrastructure. The role of the United Kingdom should not be underestimated, as well. It plays a significant role in the security of the North Atlantic, the GIUK gap, the protection of underwater infrastructure, and the development of the Atlantic Bastion concept, fitting naturally into a broader security system beyond the Canada–EU–Ukraine format. However, this specific triangle holds distinct significance because it combines Canada, European institutions, and Ukraine's gradual integration into the European defense market. Thus, Ukrainian president's visit to Canada does not create a triangle in itself. But it shows that there are elements that are already working: SAFE, where Ukrainian content is counted toward European content; JFC Norfolk, which stitches the Atlantic to the North and East of Europe; Ukrainian drones manufactured in Canada; and funding, the main share of which is already borne by Europe and Canada. The potential for deepening cooperation within the triangle lies in joint projects: air defense and counter-drone measures, maritime situational awareness from the Black Sea to the North Atlantic, protection of underwater infrastructure, and raw material supply chains.

Anton Gerashchenko

59,939 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

🟩STAT, is one of your columnists, Adam Feuerstein, colluding with hedge funds?⁉️ ➡️In this post I'll do a cursory review of Mr. Feuerstein's possible collusive activities with hedge funds that are purportedly engaged in illegal share price manipulation. A May 2, 2016 article entitled “Is Adam Feuerstein the most feared man in biotech?” in relevant part, states as follows: Adam Feuerstein (Adam Feuerstein ✡️ ) often targets lower profile “small and medium-sized drug companies…” Further, Adam Feuerstein “isn’t shy about stating — without evidence — that companies are intentionally spinning data or hyping anecdotes to goose their stock.” (emphasis added) The article insinuates that Mr. Feuerstein’s articles move the market. The article: ➡️Let’s look at one such company Mr. Feuerstein has targeted and the statements he made, without evidence. Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc. Symbol: $NWBO Mr. Feuerstein has been writing about $NWBO for over a decade. More recently Mr. Feuerstein released an article and a rash of tweets about $NWBO’s May 10, 2022 release of top-line data. Mr. Feuerstein’s article and tweets can best be summed up in his own words: “20+ years of investigation and a $1B clinical trial that failed to show a benefit for GBM patients.” See Image 1. Yet, a peer reviewed journal article from 73 authors stated the opposite: “In this study, adding DCVax-L to SOC resulted in clinically meaningful and statistically significant extension of survival for patients with both nGBM and rGBM compared with contemporaneous, matched external controls who received SOC alone.” (emphasis added) The peer reviewed journal article: In fact, before the May 10th topline data presentation occurred Mr. Feuerstein stated: “The NYAS symposium talk (now by Dr. Mulholland) will not contain any new data/results from the DCVax phase 3 clinical trial.” See Image 2. The topline data presentation can be found here: The presentation, despite Mr. Feuerstein's statement to the contrary, presented new data. So, what do we have here? $NWBO is about to release their topline data for a nearly 2-decade trial and Mr. Feuerstein is first falsely stating that no new data will be released and secondly, once the data is released, Mr. Feuerstein falsely claims the trial failed. It appears Mr. Feuerstein is trying to get people to not watch the presentation for themselves so he can then put his own spin on the topline data. ➡️What else occurred on May 9th and May 10th other than Mr. Feuerstein’s false and/or misleading article and tweets? We have the largest and one of the largest illegal share price manipulation days on record according to the $NWBO spoofing lawsuit found here: May 9, 2022 ☑️74 spoofing episodes ☑️Baiting Orders: 632,901 “The Baiting Orders successfully induced the entry of sell orders from other market participants, artificially driving down the price of NWBO shares by -2.623% on average.” May 10, 2022 ☑️100 spoofing episodes ☑️Baiting Orders: 2,883,387 “The Baiting Orders successfully induced the entry of sell orders from other market participants, artificially driving down the price of NWBO shares by -11.77% on average.” “Defendants spoofed the market for NWBO shares on both OTC Link LLC and NYSE ARCA Global OTC that day, driving down the price of NWBO shares from a high of $1.73 to a low of $0.3862. This decline of 78% in the price on a day with positive news about the Company was caused, at least in part, by Defendants’ relentless and brazen manipulation of the market for NWBO shares.” ➡️Were Mr. Feuerstein’s article and social media posts designed to give cover to illegal share price manipulation? They were certainly used as cover. The From the defendant market makers’ filing March 20, 2023: “NWBO also omits that on May 10, 2022—a day on which NWBO alleges “the market learned excellent news” about an NWBO clinical trial, and yet its share price suffered a “staggering decline . . . caused by Defendants’ relentless and brazen manipulation,” ¶ 64—an industry commentator published an analysis of NWBO’s trial data, writing that the results of the trial were “the antithesis of what’s required from any effective cancer treatment,” and actually showed that NWBO’s drug “perform[ed] worse than a placebo.”14” “14 Burck Decl. Ex. 5, Adam Feuerstein, It took years, but the failure of Northwest Bio’s brain cancer vaccine is now in the open, STAT News (May 10, 2022), The Court may take judicial notice of press coverage. See supra n.3.” See Image 3. ➡️Is this an isolated incidence of Mr. Feuerstein's article being used as cover for possible illegal share price manipulation or was the timing coincidence? No. A very quick review of Mr. Feuerstein’s articles show he seems to go out of his way to offer cover for allegations of illegal trading by hedge funds. ☑️Mr. Feuerstein calls the alleged $NWBO share price manipulation “conspiracy theories”. [1] ☑️Mr. Feuerstein, in referencing the allegations of naked shorting by hedge funds, states the allegations are “fantastical” and that there is a “non-existent hedge fund wolfpack”. [1] ☑️Here Mr. Feuerstein spends an entire article offering cover for the potential $NWBO shorts. [2] ☑️Here is another article where Mr. Feuerstein offers additional reasons for the “deep plunge in the value of Northwest Bio shares…”[3] ➡️Mr. Feuerstein went on to call $NWBO’s spoofing lawsuit "nonsense". See: Yet, a federal Judge in the Southern District of New York stated the trading in $NWBO stock bears “all these indica of spoofing.” [4] On reason put forth by $NWBO and their lead attorney, Laura Posner, for the extensive illegal share price manipulation is for the purpose of a naked short covering scheme: "And like here, the plaintiff alleged that defendants sought to benefit from their spoofing by obtaining shares at below-market prices in order to cover short positions established through a related alleged scheme of naked short selling." (Emphasis added) [5] ➡️Then we get into Mr. Feuerstein's unusual behavior Here is Mr. Feuerstein leaving a creepy voicemail with a $NWBO retail investor. See Image/video 4. Or how about emailing a university because a real doctor dares question Mr. Feuerstein's false narratives? See: There is more alleged questionable behavior, but you get the picture. ➡️Which begs the question, STAT, have you looked into this alleged behavior? Rick Berke Linda Pizzuti Henry @angusmacaulay alissa ambrose Torie Bosch lclcl Gideon Gil @lisonjoseph Alexander Bois-Spinelli 🏳️‍🌈 Jason Ukman Elaine Chen Allison DeAngelis Matthew Herper pharmalot Eric Boodman Angus Rohan Chen Olivia Goldhill Bob Herman Casey Ross @brittwhitmore STAT [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

Hoffmann

20,432 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I've bought over 30 RV & MH parks in the last 5 years. Lately? 2 per month. Want our playbook? Here ya go: How to buy a small, off-market mobile home or RV park that can 2x your money in 1-2 years, in 5 steps: 1. Pick a city in a red state. The two biggest factors: Crime & unemployment rates Crime: CrimeGrade . org Unemployment: SimpleMaps . com Cities with 3k - 30k people are best. This is the sweet spot for enough population & not to much competition. You want parks with almost no web presence & little to no reviews. A DG nearby is great. Walmart is better. But remember, “if no DG, it ain’t for me.” If there's a Whole Foods you ain't getting a good deal, I promise. Growth rate is good too, but #3 to the two above. Don't worry about the path of progress as much as other asset classes might. 2. Find the leads Get on Google Maps and search "mobile home park" in your target area(s). Avoid NY & CA (not landlord friendly). Make a Google sheet of the leads & use Loom to record your screen. Spend 30 mins doing this. OR, use something like Outscraper to do it for you. Be warned though, that if you don’t do this yourself the scraped results may not be as accurate. If you’re targeting a smaller geographical area I would do it by hand. If a whole state, use software. You’re looking for phone numbers. Use SearchBug . com to see if cell or landline for pennies. Or Phone Validator Go to Upwork and hire a virtual assistant to keep doing this for you, assuming you are targeting a larger area. They will cost around $4/hour. Use that same Loom link in your posting so applicants can see what the job will entail. When working, Loom it! You’ll never know when you’ll need it. When in doubt, Loom it out! More leads = better deals. 3. Call the leads Call up the owners and be real. Don't talk about any accolades. He doesn't care and it will only hurt you. You're a hard working country boy. You have a wife and kids (I hope you actually do). Are you a democrat? Don't tell the owner. (Sorry, democrats). Here's your general pitch: "I'm not a broker, I'm just looking for some good real estate and don't want to waste your time with a lowball offer. I can pay cash and close fast" Tell him about your wife and kids and what you do on the weekend. Most importantly, LISTEN. He's going to talk your ear off. This is a good sign. 4. Ask the right questions Ask him: How many pad sites? How many of those have a unit on them? How many of the units are RVs? (It's common for there to be a mix of MH/RV) Any single family homes on the property? Rent? Are the units park owned or tenant owned? (this is key) If a mix, what's the mix? Park-owned homes you have to maintain. AVOID AT ALL COSTS. Tenant-owned homes are key (lot rent). This means you only rent out the land and underground infrastructure. Depending on the state, sometimes you can sell back or give away the park-owned units to the tenants to absolve yourself of maintenance. Check the laws! You'll command half the rent but enjoy 90% less hassles. $250 - $350 is common lot rent in the midwest and SE. What's the occupancy and rental amount of each type of unit? Any outbuildings on the property? Septic or city sewer? If septic, conventional or aerobic? Sewer is best. Septic isn’t a deal breaker but you REALLY want to have it inspected. If there’s a lagoon or wastewater treatment plant I want you to throw that phone as far as you can, block their number and never speak of it again. Within city limits or no? City limits are best but rare. Outstanding municipal or zoning issues? How much is insurance? How much is landscaping? Asphalt, cement or dirt roads? Condition of the roads? Any drainage issues? Is there a manager? What do you pay them? (Best if no manager) Any pending litigation? What are total collections? How do people pay rent? How many are delinquent? What condition are the units in? Do you have a lien on the property? How long have you owned it? 30 or 50 amp? City maintained streets? City water or well? City is best. Keep in mind, that’s a lot of questions to ask. You have to feel it out, if he’s being standoffish, don’t keep pushing, just call back. This isn’t a used car lot, this is a relationship you’re trying to build. Don’t try and close on this first call. The key question: "If we were to make a deal, what's a ballpark offer you'd expect?" NEVER anchor him with the phrase "bottom dollar." Using the word "ballpark" keeps numbers loose. Whatever number he says, you want to pause and hem and haw over it. Embrace the silence and awkwardness. Back to car sales, they call this the “silent walkaround” when valuing a trade-in. Don’t say a thing about the asset, but point out the flaws with your body language. Touch the dents and scratches as you pause. Do the phone version of this. Tell him you'll get back to him tomorrow. Thank him profusely for his time and congratulate him on the park he's built. 5. Underwrite Before you do anything, check with the city to ensure the park is in good standing. Get that in writing. Don't trust the seller. Buyers are liars? So are sellers! Now's time to crunch numbers: What's a cap rate? The net operating income of the park divided by the price you'd like to pay. If you want your money back in 5 years and you're willing to pay up to $1m, you need $200k net profit per year. This is a 20% cap rate (20 cap). It's aggressive but possible on a smaller, rural park. (Yes, it really is, even in 2023) You probably won’t find a park that big in a small town for a good price, though. Start w/ a smaller park & higher cap rate. More room for error. $300k - $1m purchase price. First do some market research: Remember all your leads? Call competing parks as a potential tenant and ask what their lot rent is. Put this in a spreadsheet to get average lot rent & park-owned home rent. Keep in mind many of these parks will be undercharging as well. It's common to find parks charging $100 that could charge $250. When calculating cap rate BE CONSERVATIVE. Don't count on 100% of people staying if you increase rents, even though most will. Use $190 to be safe. Shoot for a park that will net $100k/year after rent increases that you pay no more than $600k for. It’s hard but not impossible. Or maybe you find a $30k/year park to get your feet wet. At least you're in the game. The more leads you scrape, the better chance of finding this park. Shoot for as much seller financing as you can get. Finance the rest with friends/family or savings. Once you find this park, get it under contract. Use a standard, simple real estate form that you can find on your state's real estate commission website. Texas' is called TREC. Yes, get it under contract before seeing it. Put down earnest and option money, and then go see it. Don't dress like a city slicker. Be personable and be willing to stay a while and BS. Drive a Tesla? Rent a truck. Drive a Prius? Just quit. Inspect the condition of the units, even if you aren't buying them Crappy units = more tenants willing to abandon them. And they aren't cheap to remove or move. Verify everything he said on the call If all looks good, start on the inspections: Septic or sewer lines SFH home inspection. Check with the city for outstanding issues or litigation Check for liens Wastewater treatment plant? If so, abandon ship! Electrical infrastructure Use professionals for all of these. Ask for: Rent rolls. They will likely be handwritten, that’s ok. Bank statements. Ask to speak to a few tenants to get their experience. Inspect their lease. Ask for vendor invoices or history of payments. Ask to speak to vendors. At some point before you close, list the property on Craigslist, FB Marketplace and Zillow. See how demand is for vacancies. If all still looks good, close on the property. 6. Post-closing strategy Meet all the tenants in the evening, they're at work during the day. Shake their hands. Tell them you want their experience to be amazing & you want them to stay Give them your number Ask what can be fixed If fixes are cheap, do them ASAP Tell that tenant once fixes are made. Address them by name. Clean up the park. Hire a tree guy to clear out low hanging branches. Do some simple landscaping. Find the tattletale in the park and get all the dirt. Who are the druggies and abusive husbands? Get them out ASAP if you can. They are much more expensive than the temporary vacancy hit. Fix potholes and drainage issues. ADD VALUE. Show you care. Wait a couple months before making any changes. Bring lot rents closer to market. Be upfront about this. They will understand if they've been getting a deal. Give people 2-3 more months' notice to give them time. Keep renting out vacancies at new price. This isn't self storage. You won't raise rents yearly. Don't be a jerk. Let them know what to expect. Once rents are raised and park is stabilized, you are 9-12 months in. Search Loopnet for the most active MHP brokers Hire the best one & pay what he or she commands. Sell on the market for 7-10% cap You've just 2-3x'ed your money. Rinse & repeat. I have done this over many times. Not all of my deals were bangers, but most were. THERE ARE STILL DEALS OUT THERE. There's a lot of fine print, and things can and will go wrong, so don't be dumb. Do your own research. Not everything can be explained in 1,700 words. I'm hosting a live, free webinar this Tuesday to cover this stuff in more detail. Including: 1. How to do everything above in more detail 2. How to ETHICALLY wholesale deals like these if you can't afford to buy them. 3. What hard questions to ask GPs of parks like these (like me) if you want to invest in them. 4. Live Q&A with me Comment below and me or my assistant Kelly will DM you the invite link. See you there! Or just follow me Chris Koerner for more RV/MHP content.

Chris Koerner

368,571 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Oh sweetheart… I really hoped we wouldn’t have to do this. Especially on Thanksgiving Eve. But since you’ve decided to publicly rewrite history with your little meltdown today, buckle up. We’re taking a field trip into the saga of one of the many bargain-bin ratchets my ex cheated on me with. Let’s begin. Back in May, YOU Chelsea slid into my Facebook messages out of nowhere (Screen Recording 1), foaming at the mouth because you thought I sent you a friend request. I have over 2,000 pending requests. If I accidentally tapped yours while scrolling, congratulations on the high point of your decade. Your hostile meltdown over a friend request was… honestly, a medical red flag. So I blocked you. Naturally, you slithered over to Twitter next (Screen Recording 2) because you were blocked on Facebook. At this point I’m thinking, “Why is this woman obsessed with me over a friend request?” I’d asked my friends if they knew you, they had no clue. I asked Aidan if he knew who you were. Aidan told me you were just a fan, a nobody. I asked why you’d send me these weird messages, “He has a lot of crazy fans and gets tons of crazy messages,” he said. And wow, did you prove that correct. I blocked you there too. End of story… until it wasn’t. Fast forward to June 18. I discovered you were sexting Aidan in April during a break we had. Gross, but whatever. We stayed together a bit longer before officially breaking up in July. A week later, an account magically appears: Mere’s Diary. Posting vomit about me and the breakup, a breakup nobody knew about yet. And who was this brand-new hate account tagging? Your tiny burner account. The one with no followers. That nobody else could possibly know existed. What an incredible coincidence. Almost miraculous. And like divine intervention, the account vanished the second it was brought to Aidan’s attention. Shocking. Fast-forward to today, I finish work, and here you are– proudly teaming up with the Ratchet Voldemort Squad, posting random screenshots, private conversations, and whatever scraps Aidan tossed you to weaponize against me. Cute hobby. And the icing? I checked my spam folder and found more messages from you on 11/6/25 at 4:04 AM (Screen Recording 3), threatening to “be your worst fucking nightmare.” You know what’s really scary? Your sleep schedule. Yet somehow I’m the one being accused of stalking YOU? Girl. You can’t even lie convincingly. Let’s talk about these “unknown calls”: Let’s see actual proof you received them, because you should absolutely be contacting police if someone is allegedly calling you thousands of times. Way more effective than sending deranged 4am threats that sat in my spam folder til today. Show proof I had anything to do with them. Spoiler: you can’t. Because I didn’t. And because you’re lying. The extent of my communications with you is right here in the screen recordings. That’s it. That’s the whole story. Everything else is just your delusion dressed up as content. Let me recap this for the people in the back: • YOU messaged ME first, unprovoked. • YOU harassed me over a friend request I probably tapped by accident. • YOU made a fake account about me to tag YOURSELF with. • YOU have been switching accounts like it’s a buy-one-get-one special. • And now YOU are doing Aidan’s dirty work, because apparently you’re ratchet #3 in the rotation this week. I’ve never publicly discussed Aidan’s cheating because, unlike you, I have dignity. Despite all the one-sided screenshots that have leaked, painting a very inaccurate picture of a private relationship, I haven't shared any of his messages or fought back. But since one of the Dollar Tree side chicks is now trying to rewrite my life for clout, here we are. I hope people are starting to realize that I’m not the one instigating any of this as I’d really rather keep private things private. Almost like this little “Temu Storm” of gutter muppets is coordinated on behalf of someone who wants to paint himself as the victim. I offered to “take that walk” with the ratchet who eats paper and the ratchet who suddenly became beloved this week after faking rape for a year, but apparently they sent the understudy instead. Anyway, Chelsea—keep posting your random, context-free screenshots. Keep playing the victim. Keep pretending you’re being terrorized by someone who doesn’t even have your phone number. But before you claim 2,000 calls again, maybe — just maybe — show a single shred of proof. I’ll wait, bitch. PS-I feel like tonight is the perfect time to premiere Jess’s new video. Spoiler alert- it’ll be way better than the one Kate made.

Meredith

1,196,426 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Trooper John Fanning, one of Michael Proctor’s supervisors at the NCDAO State Police Detective Unit (SPDU), reportedly “supervised” the jury at the #KarenReadTrial. As if this conflict alone wasn’t concerning, the fact that Fanning was later under an inconclusive internal investigation by the MSP for “whether [he] failed to adequately supervise by not taking appropriate action after Trooper Proctor sent inappropriate texts to a group of subordinate members, specifically, if he took any corrective action to address the unprofessionalism and inappropriateness of Trooper Proctor's texts”—thereby making him a potential witness & demonstrating his clear conflict, is incredibly concerning. In the full sit down interview w/ #KarenRead & Attorney Alan Jackson, Ted Daniel asks them about the potential jury tampering that occurred at the first trial—notably with the ultra curious last minute dismissal of 3 jurors, whose body language, reactions/expressions & outward demeanor appeared favorable to the defense, in addition to the “supervision” of the jury by one of Michael Proctor’s bosses, NCDAO SPDU Trooper John Fanning. It would be dishonest to try to claim that Trooper Fanning had no stake in the outcome of the Karen Read trial. Arguably, anyone with ties to the NCDAO, its SPDU or the Canton Police Department—and notably those with close ties to Michael Proctor, like his own supervisor, have clear conflicts of interest in this case. As you may recall, Trooper John Fanning was the lead investigator in the Sandra Birchmore case where he and his investigators concluded that Birchmore committed suicide while allegedly pregnant with a fellow Police Officer, Matthew Farwell’s baby, and wasn’t the obvious victim of murder by that same Officer who also raped and groomed her from a young age as revealed by 30k+ text messages inexplicably “overlooked” by Trooper Nicholas Guarino & Fanning. The Feds investigated that “investigation” too and have since indicted Matthew Farwell in Sandra Birchmore‘s murder. Additionally, Trooper Fanning was in one of Michael Proctor’s abhorrent group text message threads where he disparaged Karen Read. Fanning was subsequently internally investigated by MSP for this, and his failure to properly “supervise” Trooper Proctor—interesting that such a person would be chosen to “supervise” the jury. In a statement from the State Police, they said: “The Department’s internal affairs investigation determined that there was insufficient evidence to prove or disprove the allegation that Lieutenant Fanning violated rules and regulations by failing to uphold the responsibilities of a supervisory member. This allegation has been classified as unfounded.” Frankly, given the circumstances of this case, it would be concerning if any member of the State Police oversaw and supervised the jury. Why was ANY member of the State Police supervising the jury? Has anyone ever heard of this before—Police Officers from the same agency that investigated, testified against & was a part of the prosecution against a defendant having one of their personnel in charge of and in direct control of the jury? This can’t possibly be a standard practice due to the obvious existing conflict, no? Plus, were it standard protocol, then why wasn’t the defense made aware of this fact until 10 minutes before making closing argument, after a nearly 10 week long trial? ——— Something majorly stinks about this, and perhaps it sheds some light on something peculiar that one of the deliberating jurors, who was recently interviewed by Aidan Kearney, kept saying in regard to the jury’s deliberative process. Specifically, something that stood out to me from juror Ron’s interview was his repeated use and references of the other jurors’ use of the term “distractors” to qualify or describe the abundant evidence representing “reasonable doubt” brought out by the defense at trial. “Distractors.” It’s somewhat of a novel term, especially in this context, and is obviously antithetical to a jury’s duty to assess a case based on the proof beyond a reasonable doubt standard, which is inherently intertwined with an assessment of the existence of, or lack thereof, reasonable doubt. There was no evidence or instructions from the court that came out at trial directing jurors to view defense evidence or ARCCA experts, for instance, as “distractors,” and the jury is very specifically instructed not to view/consume/bring any outside information into their deliberations. In other words, if they’re unsure who the ARCCA experts were there on behalf of (the Feds), they’re specifically told not to “fill in the blank” with information that’s not there, or evidence that didn’t come in at trial. So where did the information—this use of the term “distractors” come from? Who fed this term and this concept to the jury? The reason why it seems like it was “fed” to the jury is because it goes against everything the court, Judge Beverly Cannone, instructed them on. So, what prompted the whole “distractors” concept to taint the jurors’ minds and deliberations? ——— What immediately came to mind was the jury tampering by court clerk Becky Hill in the Alex Murdaugh murder trial. In that case, according to Murdaugh’s attorneys, Ms. Hill “invented a story about a Facebook post to remove a juror she believed might not vote guilty”. Judge Clifton Newman, who oversaw the murder trial, removed the female juror from the panel. According to the Murdaugh defense motion, Ms. Hill had gone to Judge Newman – the day after Murdaugh testified, not long before closing arguments – claiming that she had seen a post in the local Facebook group ‘Walterboro Word of Mouth’ from the juror’s former husband, Tim Stone. The post purportedly claimed that the juror was drinking with her ex-husband and, when she became drunk, she expressed her views on whether Murdaugh was innocent or guilty. A follow-up post from an account called Timothy Stone apologised for the post saying that he was driven by “Satan”. Murdaugh’s attorneys claimed that the Mr. Stone behind the Facebook posts was actually a random Georgia man who was ranting about his wife’s aunt – and has no connection to the case. Additionally, information from jurors had come to the defense’s attention about inappropriate comments supposedly made to them by Ms. Hill while she was “supervising” them—the same role as “supervisor” that Trooper John Fanning allegedly played in the Karen Read trial. In Murdaugh’s case, the jurors were *actually* brought back into the court and were called to the stand one by one and questioned about potential comments that may have tainted their verdict. A female juror, identified only as juror Z, said that Ms. Hill had told some of the jurors to “watch [Murdaugh] closely.” “To me, it felt like ... she made it feel like he was already guilty,” juror Z said. A separate juror, Juror E, said that he heard Ms. Hill say “watch [Murdaugh’s] body language”, but claimed that this did not affect his decision. ——— There were reports, at the time of the dismissal of the 3 defense-favorable jurors at Karen Read’s trial, that right before closing arguments, Trooper Fanning had reported the information responsible for dismissing these jurors to Judge Cannone. Among that information was reportedly a story about one of those jurors, claiming they’d been overheard discussing the case while drinking at a bar (or something to that effect)—a story that sounded highly suspicious at the time, particularly given the fact that Trooper Fanning had allegedly had that information weeks before, but never reported it to the court. The similarity in Becky Hill and John Fanning’s “stories” leading to the dismissal of defense-favorable jurors is rather uncanny. ——— Is it not problematic to have individuals—with conflicts of interest, who are also potential witnesses, and who seemingly have a vested interest in the outcome of the trial—be in charge of overseeing and supervising the jury? I’ve attached the referenced MSP Internal Investigative Report for Trooper Fanning to this post (attached in the comments below). What’s troubling is that, despite acknowledging in their report that “these allegations came to light on June 10, 2024, during the trial,” they didn’t immediately initiate an internal investigation, but instead waited until AFTER the trial ended, July 3, 2024, to launch their internal investigation, almost as if they were planning on not initiating an investigation had Karen Read been convicted, because apparently in that case the misconduct would’ve been justified… or something? It should also be noted that this same practice was employed for most, if not all, of the other Police Officers in this case, whose misconduct was exposed by the defense throughout the prosecution’s case at trial—whereby, despite admissions and the existence of evidence of their misconduct, the MSP, NCDAO and Canton PD seemingly did everything they could to avoid initiating any investigations or holding their officers accountable for their misconduct until after the trial ended—when they could no longer justify not doing anything. It makes you wonder: Had Karen Read been convicted, do you think they’d (the MSP, NCDAO or CPD) ever launch any internal investigations into the misconduct of their officers, as evidenced at trial, weeks before? ——— It should be mentioned that in the Sandra Birchmore case, which Trooper Fanning led the investigation of, despite the Feds spoon feeding the State Police & NCDAO (DA Michael Morrissey’s Office) overwhelming evidence + probable cause, in addition to punting the ball back to the state to do the right thing and charge Farwell with murder—a state level charge, they’ve refused to take any action to this day. In fact, not only has it now been nearly 6 months since the Feds apprehended & indicted Farwell, but the NCDAO, Fanning and the State Police, aside from taking no action, have made no statements and are still of the official position that Sandra Birchmore killed herself. To try to save face, the NCDAO, through its former spokesperson David Traub, tried to create the impression that the DA’s Office had been long working in collaboration with the Feds to secure an arrest in the Sandra Birchmore case, claiming that “two of [the NCDAO SPDU’s] detectives were present at the command post ... while federal authorities were attempting to take Matthew Farwell into custody”—whatever that means. This, of course, is patently absurd because the DA’s Office and State Police could’ve “secured an arrest” years ago—nobody was stopping them, but instead they framed Sandra Birchmore for her own murder. Spokesperson Traub then had the gall to say that “much of the information that they [federal authorities] built on originated with our investigation, including the collection of thousands of text messages.” (See a collection of statements from the NCDAO on the Birchmore case from reporting over the years, attached in comments below). While the Feds might be somewhat playing along with this narrative, don’t be fooled. Perhaps it’s to appease the very individuals who they’re investigating for the supposed coverup of Sandra Birchmore’s murder. Why? If the Feds had actually been collaborating with the State Police investigators from the NCDAO who investigated Sandra’s death, then at the Feds’ press conference announcing Farewell’s indictment, U.S. Attorney (at the time) Joshua Levy wouldn’t have feigned ignorance when asked who the lead investigator was on the case before his agency got involved (see clip 3 attached). Had the Feds actually been *collaborating* with the State Police & the DA’s Office, John Fanning’s name would’ve been the first thing uttered out of Josh Levy’s mouth. On a side note: I think this is very telling. Does it mean the U.S. Attorney’s Office is investigating Fanning? Who knows. But one thing’s for sure: Josh Levy 100% knew who the State Police lead investigator was and he deliberately avoided saying it. This observation is reflected in FBI Special Agent Chenee Castruita’s 45-page long probable cause affidavit for the arrest of Matthew Farwell, which notably contains ZERO references whatsoever to John Fanning, or any of the other involved State Police investigators for that matter. That’s telling. If there was so much “collaboration,” like DA Michael Morrissey’s Office wants the public to think, then not only would USA Josh Levy have had, at the very least, Trooper Fanning up there side-by-side with him at that press conference, but he would’ve acknowledged him by name in his press conference. Why hasn’t the NCDAO charged disgraced former Stoughton cop Matthew Farwell with murder? Is it yet another case of “pinning it on the girl” to cover up for fellow Police Officers’ crimes? ——— Of note, Trooper Fanning grew up in Stoughton, graduating from Stoughton High School in 1998, the same year that Matthew and his twin brother William—who also grew up in Stoughton—then 12 years old, became participants in the Stoughton police youth program. As Karen Read points out in the interview with Ted Daniels: “There were familiarities among players that never should’ve happened. There’s a sleeve of homicide in the Norfolk DA’s office, as there is in the other counties of Massachusetts. And yet, the person assigned to investigate this case—ostensibly investigate this case—lives a mile down the street from the crime scene.” (See clip 4 attached). Why is it that when there’s seemingly crimes—in this case murders, involving cops, that the NCDAO SPDU appears to send the most conflicted Trooper with the closest ties to that cop/those cops? In Officer John O’Keefe’s murder, the Trooper that lives down the street from 34 Fairview and is “second family” with the Alberts is obviously the last person who should’ve ever responded to that case, yet he was the lead investigator. Given Trooper John Fanning’s close ties to Stoughton, isn’t it interesting that he’s the one who was the lead investigator of Sandra Birchmore‘s death—a murder that allegedly involved a former Stoughton cop? What say you?

Olivia

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