🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 THE FED WILL OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCE U.S. INFLATION DATA TODAY AT 8:30 AM ET! IF PCE > 3.4% → MARKET DUMPS HARD IF CPI = 3.3-3.4% → MARKET STAYS FLAT IF CPI < 3.3% → MARKET GOES PARABOLIC ALL EYES ON THE RELEASE 👀

My base case for today’s US Core PCE is finely balanced. I assign roughly a 40% probability of a downside surprise, mainly because recent CPI/PPI data showed cooling price pressures, with July core PPI undershooting expectations. The previous Core PCE release also came in at just 0.1% MoM versus 0.2% expected, suggesting the disinflation trend still has some momentum. I also assign around a 40% probability of a 0.2% print, exactly in line with consensus. Several forecasters see the CPI-to-PCE components translating into roughly 0.2%, while the market consensus itself remains firmly centered there. So my expectation is slightly dovish overall: ~40% below consensus, ~40% in line, and ~20% above consensus. A 0.1% print would be the meaningful positive surprise for risk assets.

Inflation data today… meanwhile Bessent’s failed Iran war is juicing oil prices and crushing the bond market. China & Japan already dumping Treasuries. Numbers won’t save this mess.

It will go up first and dump hard within minutes don't get trapped

These guys are cooking up digitz However the intention to save the economy is still failing

The problem is that can we trust that report.

his face already knows the number

This is not a risk on threshold. Two current risks can reaccelerate inflation: oil geopolitics in Hormuz and AI driven hardware costs. Today's print is just a warm up. Friday's Jackson Hole speech by Warsh will move markets more than this number because the market is not looking for a number but for his policy intention

First you mention two different things and secondly PCE don’t move markerts like this. Third: wrong numbers to properly display the release

I see this post once a week?

👀 Heute wird’s spannend. Mal sehen, ob die CPI-Zahl wirklich so viel Bewegung bringt.

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

Macro data releases often create new information flows across markets. Tracking how expectations shift after key data points is where the real signal emerges. @PrismNetwork_io continues to watch these market signals.

ready for that green candle, let's go

CPI’s a joke, we’re all just praying the dip hits.

lol everyone's a macro expert on days like this

PCE matters more for Fed policy.

You actually believe these numbers?

The actual number matters, but the market’s reaction will depend heavily on how PCE changes expectations for the Fed’s next move

Wasn't CPI released on August 12th and didn't it come in at 3.4?"

Wait...? Today??? Then 🥵🩸

Hahaha... What's in your wallet is determined by the Fed. Go to church or the mosque and pray.

Got 1,500 gallons of diesel yesterday. $5.19 a gallon highest ever paid Memphis