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🚨 BREAKING: World Bank Executive Director drops a massive logic bomb on the "Data Fudge" conspiracy! ​If the government is manipulating the GDP to look good, why did the new February series revise the nominal GDP DOWN by 4%? ​Neelkanth Mishra just exposed the ultimate flaw in the opposition's...

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118,436 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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Adam Chambers "If you look at even the government's now new fiscal anchor, which is I think the deficit to the GDP, if they're in the downside scenario, that fiscal anchor is likely broken." "And you'll recall the last fiscal anchor, the debt to GDP ratio is now actually, they said was supposed to go down every year, is actually going up every year for the next three years." "And frankly if Prime Minister Trudeau was still the Prime Minister today, running deficits this size, I don't think we would be saying that he has moved to the right." Adam Chambers
9:02

Adam Chambers "If you look at even the government's now new fiscal anchor, which is I think the deficit to the GDP, if they're in the downside scenario, that fiscal anchor is likely broken." "And you'll recall the last fiscal anchor, the debt to GDP ratio is now actually, they said was supposed to go down every year, is actually going up every year for the next three years." "And frankly if Prime Minister Trudeau was still the Prime Minister today, running deficits this size, I don't think we would be saying that he has moved to the right." Adam Chambers

cbcwatcher

19,450 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Zimbabwe’s economy is bigger than previously thought — well, on paper, at least. According to a new survey by Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency - ZIMSTAT, the country’s GDP is now estimated at US$44.4 billion, up from the earlier estimate of US$35.2 billion. Why the jump? Finance Minister Hon Prof Mthuli Ncube says the revision follows an economic census that captured “a larger number of business entities that have emerged since 2019” — the last time Zimbabwe updated its GDP base year. This process, known as rebasing, adjusts GDP figures to better reflect the current structure of the economy. It adds economic activities that may not have been counted in 2019. So, what changes? 📌 Per capita income — the average income per person — would rise to over US$3,000 in 2025 (vs World Bank’s current US$2,656). 📌 The debt-to-GDP ratio - a measure of how much the country owes compared to the size of the economy - drops from 60% to 45%, making Zim’s huge debt look smaller when compared to the economy. 🚨 But there’s a flipside: a bigger GDP also means a lower revenue-to-GDP ratio — making Treasury look even less efficient at collecting revenue. Rebasing doesn’t change what’s in your wallet. But for govt and investors, it’s supposed to offer a more up-to-date picture of the true size of the economy, how it’s now structured — and who’s now part of it. The update comes after years of mixed signals from Govt officials, who’ve given varying GDP figures. The World Bank put Zimbabwe’s GDP at US$44.1 billion in 2024, while the IMF previously estimated it at US$38 billion.
1:22

Zimbabwe’s economy is bigger than previously thought — well, on paper, at least. According to a new survey by Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency - ZIMSTAT, the country’s GDP is now estimated at US$44.4 billion, up from the earlier estimate of US$35.2 billion. Why the jump? Finance Minister Hon Prof Mthuli Ncube says the revision follows an economic census that captured “a larger number of business entities that have emerged since 2019” — the last time Zimbabwe updated its GDP base year. This process, known as rebasing, adjusts GDP figures to better reflect the current structure of the economy. It adds economic activities that may not have been counted in 2019. So, what changes? 📌 Per capita income — the average income per person — would rise to over US$3,000 in 2025 (vs World Bank’s current US$2,656). 📌 The debt-to-GDP ratio - a measure of how much the country owes compared to the size of the economy - drops from 60% to 45%, making Zim’s huge debt look smaller when compared to the economy. 🚨 But there’s a flipside: a bigger GDP also means a lower revenue-to-GDP ratio — making Treasury look even less efficient at collecting revenue. Rebasing doesn’t change what’s in your wallet. But for govt and investors, it’s supposed to offer a more up-to-date picture of the true size of the economy, how it’s now structured — and who’s now part of it. The update comes after years of mixed signals from Govt officials, who’ve given varying GDP figures. The World Bank put Zimbabwe’s GDP at US$44.1 billion in 2024, while the IMF previously estimated it at US$38 billion.

newZWire

28,502 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

◉ India’s economy begins FY 2026–27 on a strong note, with real GDP growth at 7.8% in Q1📈 ◉ The new GDP series has also brought revisions to earlier estimates. For Q1 2025–26, GDP at current prices was earlier estimated at ₹86.05 lakh crore under the old series; under the new series and subsequent revisions, the estimate stands at ₹80 lakh crore ◉ Such revisions reflect changes in the base year, updated data and improved measurement methodologies as more comprehensive information becomes available 📽️Take a closer look at what the new #GDP series means for understanding India’s evolving economy! #IndianEconomy #GDPGrowth #IndiaGrowthStory
1:21

◉ India’s economy begins FY 2026–27 on a strong note, with real GDP growth at 7.8% in Q1📈 ◉ The new GDP series has also brought revisions to earlier estimates. For Q1 2025–26, GDP at current prices was earlier estimated at ₹86.05 lakh crore under the old series; under the new series and subsequent revisions, the estimate stands at ₹80 lakh crore ◉ Such revisions reflect changes in the base year, updated data and improved measurement methodologies as more comprehensive information becomes available 📽️Take a closer look at what the new #GDP series means for understanding India’s evolving economy! #IndianEconomy #GDPGrowth #IndiaGrowthStory

PIB India

19,972 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

The UK is ‘moving to warfighting readiness’ and it will come at a cost 🇬🇧💷 It looks like Rachel Reeves is out of headroom, so what might the end of the ‘peace dividend’ mean for our public services? ✂️ The Government said they would raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, but won’t commit to a date. The rise to 2.5% of GDP will cost £6bn and for 3% of GDP that figure more than triples to £20bn. Charts first featured on #Peston on 26 February. Catch up on ITVX 🔗👇 Data from Bee Boileau, Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for National Statistics 📈
0:27

The UK is ‘moving to warfighting readiness’ and it will come at a cost 🇬🇧💷 It looks like Rachel Reeves is out of headroom, so what might the end of the ‘peace dividend’ mean for our public services? ✂️ The Government said they would raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, but won’t commit to a date. The rise to 2.5% of GDP will cost £6bn and for 3% of GDP that figure more than triples to £20bn. Charts first featured on #Peston on 26 February. Catch up on ITVX 🔗👇 Data from Bee Boileau, Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for National Statistics 📈

Peston

26,444 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🔸Good day Prof PROFESSOR GIFT MUGANO (Ph.D), 1. Last year, Minister Prof. Mthuli Ncube made a claim that the country’s GDP is US$52 billion. You called the claim “rigged and fake” based on a number of data points including his GDP figures of 2020 which pegged our GDP at US$20 billion, the absence of any double digit economic growth over the 5 year period, the post-COVID depression, the exponential increase in extreme poverty to 49% of the population, the chronic unemployment rates which show over 50% of young people being out of work - among other factors grounded in sound economic analysis. 2. Has your view on the country’s GDP changed? What do you say it is now? What’s the economic basis for your view? We need new leaders.🇿🇼
4:27

🔸Good day Prof PROFESSOR GIFT MUGANO (Ph.D), 1. Last year, Minister Prof. Mthuli Ncube made a claim that the country’s GDP is US$52 billion. You called the claim “rigged and fake” based on a number of data points including his GDP figures of 2020 which pegged our GDP at US$20 billion, the absence of any double digit economic growth over the 5 year period, the post-COVID depression, the exponential increase in extreme poverty to 49% of the population, the chronic unemployment rates which show over 50% of young people being out of work - among other factors grounded in sound economic analysis. 2. Has your view on the country’s GDP changed? What do you say it is now? What’s the economic basis for your view? We need new leaders.🇿🇼

Fadzayi Mahere🇿🇼

22,584 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

AI and robots are our way out of the debt trap. I know that sounds insane… but when you play it through, it's the only story that adds up. Every economy on earth runs on population plus productivity plus debt. When the first two stall, the only lever left is to pile on debt to hold the line. That's why debt to GDP has climbed across the developed world for decades, and no policy or austerity package has ever managed to stop it. But here's what changes it. AI and robots become the new workforce… One that doesn't age or retire, and never asks for a raise or a pension. When this scales productivity moves again, GDP outgrows debt, and debt to GDP starts falling for the first time in a generation. We saw it happen in the 1950s when America's post-war productivity boom cut debt to GDP in half. What's coming next is a much bigger version of that… The moment technology creates enough productivity to break the debt spiral for good. That's the Economic Singularity I've been telling you about.
1:37

AI and robots are our way out of the debt trap. I know that sounds insane… but when you play it through, it's the only story that adds up. Every economy on earth runs on population plus productivity plus debt. When the first two stall, the only lever left is to pile on debt to hold the line. That's why debt to GDP has climbed across the developed world for decades, and no policy or austerity package has ever managed to stop it. But here's what changes it. AI and robots become the new workforce… One that doesn't age or retire, and never asks for a raise or a pension. When this scales productivity moves again, GDP outgrows debt, and debt to GDP starts falling for the first time in a generation. We saw it happen in the 1950s when America's post-war productivity boom cut debt to GDP in half. What's coming next is a much bigger version of that… The moment technology creates enough productivity to break the debt spiral for good. That's the Economic Singularity I've been telling you about.

Raoul Pal

90,053 görüntüleme • 24 gün önce

🚨 NYU Professor Scott Galloway Calls For an ‘Economic Strike’ on the U.S. Economy to Stop ICE “I'm talking about something … unsettling to the system, and that is an economic strike … Think about what you could do here … You would take GDP negative almost overnight.”
2:27

🚨 NYU Professor Scott Galloway Calls For an ‘Economic Strike’ on the U.S. Economy to Stop ICE “I'm talking about something … unsettling to the system, and that is an economic strike … Think about what you could do here … You would take GDP negative almost overnight.”

Chief Nerd

1,289,939 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

"If the growth rate is above the funding rate you're good, if it's the other way around your debt becomes unsustainable" Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer on the simple test for whether debt spirals "A very simple metric would be to look at the five year CAGR of nominal GDP, which is probably around 6 or 7%, and what's the 10 year treasury yield, what is the funding? It's 4.65%" "In Europe for instance, they don't have the growth but they do have the debt. In Japan they are deflating or devaluing the debt, and they're actually doing, I would hate to say a good job at it because Japanese yields keep making new highs, but Japanese debt to GDP is way down. It's the ratio of debt to GDP" "So the calculus in the US is we're going to boost productivity through AI, we're going to grow this thing, and that keeps the growth rate above the funding rate. If that's the case, you avoid a debt spiral"
0:59

"If the growth rate is above the funding rate you're good, if it's the other way around your debt becomes unsustainable" Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer on the simple test for whether debt spirals "A very simple metric would be to look at the five year CAGR of nominal GDP, which is probably around 6 or 7%, and what's the 10 year treasury yield, what is the funding? It's 4.65%" "In Europe for instance, they don't have the growth but they do have the debt. In Japan they are deflating or devaluing the debt, and they're actually doing, I would hate to say a good job at it because Japanese yields keep making new highs, but Japanese debt to GDP is way down. It's the ratio of debt to GDP" "So the calculus in the US is we're going to boost productivity through AI, we're going to grow this thing, and that keeps the growth rate above the funding rate. If that's the case, you avoid a debt spiral"

The Wolf Of All Streets

36,734 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce

“We have an AI bubble.” Edward Dowd just revealed an uncomfortable truth about AI data center spending. GDP growth for Q4 2025 came in at 0.7%. But … “If you back out the data center AI GDP number, about 1.5%, which doesn’t really add to the labor force, we were negative GDP.” AI capital expenditure has been “driving a lot of the GDP, and especially Nvidia.” But Dowd warns that that’s about to change. “AI CapEx is gonna be rolling over very soon.” “We just made the power complex that much more expensive.” “We don’t have enough electricity and water to fund all this CapEx for AI.” “It’s already starting to show signs of cracking because the debt markets are questioning the ROI on the whole complex.” “There’s not enough revenue to support this CapEx spend.” Edward Dowd Jeffrey A Tucker
1:46

“We have an AI bubble.” Edward Dowd just revealed an uncomfortable truth about AI data center spending. GDP growth for Q4 2025 came in at 0.7%. But … “If you back out the data center AI GDP number, about 1.5%, which doesn’t really add to the labor force, we were negative GDP.” AI capital expenditure has been “driving a lot of the GDP, and especially Nvidia.” But Dowd warns that that’s about to change. “AI CapEx is gonna be rolling over very soon.” “We just made the power complex that much more expensive.” “We don’t have enough electricity and water to fund all this CapEx for AI.” “It’s already starting to show signs of cracking because the debt markets are questioning the ROI on the whole complex.” “There’s not enough revenue to support this CapEx spend.” Edward Dowd Jeffrey A Tucker

Brownstone Institute

23,331 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

The Liberals' oil and gas cap will kill 54,000 jobs by 2032, cut $21 billion from Canada's GDP, shrink Alberta's GDP by 4.5%, and cause $91 billion in lost economic activity across Canada. Nearly 900,000 Canadians depend on oil and gas, that's why Conservatives will continue to fight to repeal the only one of its kind in the world Liberal oil and gas cap for the benefit of all Canadians.
2:16

The Liberals' oil and gas cap will kill 54,000 jobs by 2032, cut $21 billion from Canada's GDP, shrink Alberta's GDP by 4.5%, and cause $91 billion in lost economic activity across Canada. Nearly 900,000 Canadians depend on oil and gas, that's why Conservatives will continue to fight to repeal the only one of its kind in the world Liberal oil and gas cap for the benefit of all Canadians.

Shannon Stubbs

28,853 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

GDP. Onchain. Officially 🇺🇸 The U.S. Commerce Department is moving to publish GDP stats directly to a public blockchain This isn't about crypto adoption. This is the federal government using public ledgers for data integrity That changes everything ⤵️ GDP is the most-watched macro metric in the world It informs: → Policy decisions → Rate moves → Capital flows → Institutional macro strategy Every revision shifts billions And now it’s getting a verifiable onchain timestamp Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed it Official GDP figures will be pushed onchain by the U.S. government First time a major federal agency is treating a public blockchain as a trust layer for national data That precedent will cascade What this unlocks: ➤ Time-stamped economic releases ➤ Immutable macro signals ➤ Trustless rails for modeling risk, yield, credit The data is no longer just public It’s now programmable The implications for financial tooling are massive You could build: ✔︎ RWAs keyed to GDP triggers ✔︎ Onchain yield curves linked to macro signals ✔︎ Predictive markets on economic prints All syncing in real time This opens up a new category of composable macro data And more importantly, it spotlights the infrastructure stack Because the oracles, chains, and protocols that secure this data? They won’t just distribute it They’ll route the capital that follows The rails are already being laid Watch what gets integrated Because whoever secures this data flow Wins the next layer of macro-fintech capital
0:25

GDP. Onchain. Officially 🇺🇸 The U.S. Commerce Department is moving to publish GDP stats directly to a public blockchain This isn't about crypto adoption. This is the federal government using public ledgers for data integrity That changes everything ⤵️ GDP is the most-watched macro metric in the world It informs: → Policy decisions → Rate moves → Capital flows → Institutional macro strategy Every revision shifts billions And now it’s getting a verifiable onchain timestamp Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed it Official GDP figures will be pushed onchain by the U.S. government First time a major federal agency is treating a public blockchain as a trust layer for national data That precedent will cascade What this unlocks: ➤ Time-stamped economic releases ➤ Immutable macro signals ➤ Trustless rails for modeling risk, yield, credit The data is no longer just public It’s now programmable The implications for financial tooling are massive You could build: ✔︎ RWAs keyed to GDP triggers ✔︎ Onchain yield curves linked to macro signals ✔︎ Predictive markets on economic prints All syncing in real time This opens up a new category of composable macro data And more importantly, it spotlights the infrastructure stack Because the oracles, chains, and protocols that secure this data? They won’t just distribute it They’ll route the capital that follows The rails are already being laid Watch what gets integrated Because whoever secures this data flow Wins the next layer of macro-fintech capital

eye zen hour 🥶

36,020 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

"Its very difficult to get a recession... When hyperscalers are spending 3% of GDP... And the fiscal deficit is at 5-6%... So... generally a good backdrop for equities..." - Warren Pies, on Excess Returns
0:58

"Its very difficult to get a recession... When hyperscalers are spending 3% of GDP... And the fiscal deficit is at 5-6%... So... generally a good backdrop for equities..." - Warren Pies, on Excess Returns

The Daily Degen

28,710 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Much of NATO's aggressive funding of Ukraine is based on the notion of Russian expansionism. But that "Russia is the new Nazi Germany" comparison falls apart the moment you look at the data. Professor David Gibbs explained why such rhetoric is likely delusional. "Germany spending was almost a quarter of German GDP by the time it invaded Poland. Russia on the eve of the war with Ukraine spent 3.7% to 4.1% of its GDP. That's not Nazi Germany. That's not a country preparing to conquer Europe." Fear sells. Evidence doesn't lie.
7:05

🚨 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Much of NATO's aggressive funding of Ukraine is based on the notion of Russian expansionism. But that "Russia is the new Nazi Germany" comparison falls apart the moment you look at the data. Professor David Gibbs explained why such rhetoric is likely delusional. "Germany spending was almost a quarter of German GDP by the time it invaded Poland. Russia on the eve of the war with Ukraine spent 3.7% to 4.1% of its GDP. That's not Nazi Germany. That's not a country preparing to conquer Europe." Fear sells. Evidence doesn't lie.

Mario Nawfal

46,052 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

As measured by GDP, AI will be super undervalued. How would the datacenter of geniuses show up in GDP? GDP would show raw inputs (aka chip & energy), and raw outputs (aka cost of tokens). But wouldn't clearly reflect the value of the crazy new shit that's being cooked up in those tokens. Similar problem to how the Internet's value is undercounted today (since many products are free, and thus contribute nothing to measured GDP). Perhaps the best way to measure the size of the future AI economy will just be our civilization's total energy use. Full episode with Casey Handmer out in a couple hours! (Credit to James Bradbury and 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 for mentioning this idea in conversation.)
2:07

As measured by GDP, AI will be super undervalued. How would the datacenter of geniuses show up in GDP? GDP would show raw inputs (aka chip & energy), and raw outputs (aka cost of tokens). But wouldn't clearly reflect the value of the crazy new shit that's being cooked up in those tokens. Similar problem to how the Internet's value is undercounted today (since many products are free, and thus contribute nothing to measured GDP). Perhaps the best way to measure the size of the future AI economy will just be our civilization's total energy use. Full episode with Casey Handmer out in a couple hours! (Credit to James Bradbury and 𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 for mentioning this idea in conversation.)

Dwarkesh Patel

544,785 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

John: AI is actually doing very little for the economy right now. It's doing a lot for the markets, but in terms of the actual economic impact of AI, it's very low. If you add up the actual revenues from the AI labs, you're talking about $40 billion. Maybe there's like a 5x multiple on that, and so you're generating $200 billion of GDP on top of those tokens. But that's just not that much in the grand scheme of America's actual GDP. There's this disconnect between the market, which is pricing future GDP, future cash flows, future value creation. Then you have what is actually driving GDP, and then you have the actual workforce and what Americans do. What's actually holding up the American economy? It's healthcare jobs. The number of people that are software developers is less than 1% of America. The number of people that work at tech companies broadly is less than 10%.
2:09

John: AI is actually doing very little for the economy right now. It's doing a lot for the markets, but in terms of the actual economic impact of AI, it's very low. If you add up the actual revenues from the AI labs, you're talking about $40 billion. Maybe there's like a 5x multiple on that, and so you're generating $200 billion of GDP on top of those tokens. But that's just not that much in the grand scheme of America's actual GDP. There's this disconnect between the market, which is pricing future GDP, future cash flows, future value creation. Then you have what is actually driving GDP, and then you have the actual workforce and what Americans do. What's actually holding up the American economy? It's healthcare jobs. The number of people that are software developers is less than 1% of America. The number of people that work at tech companies broadly is less than 10%.

TBPN

34,206 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🇷🇺 PUTIN: THE WORLD NEEDS A NEW SYSTEM AND THE WEST CAN’T STOP IT "It is the SEO [Shanghai Cooperation Organization] that could take up the leading role in efforts aimed at shaping a more just global governance system based on the prevalence of international law in key terms of the UN charter. That would be balanced and taken to account. The SEO is actively promoting trade, economic and investment cooperation. The total GDP of the SEO member states in 2024 grew by an average of more than 5%." Source: Freelensia
3:30

🇷🇺 PUTIN: THE WORLD NEEDS A NEW SYSTEM AND THE WEST CAN’T STOP IT "It is the SEO [Shanghai Cooperation Organization] that could take up the leading role in efforts aimed at shaping a more just global governance system based on the prevalence of international law in key terms of the UN charter. That would be balanced and taken to account. The SEO is actively promoting trade, economic and investment cooperation. The total GDP of the SEO member states in 2024 grew by an average of more than 5%." Source: Freelensia

Mario Nawfal

170,399 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce