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🚨 BREAKING THE FED SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE - ALMOST CERTAIN OR NOT?! WARSH HAS MADE HIS PRIORITY CLEAR: "FIGHTING INFLATION IS MY JOB" - AND THE FED IS READY TO ACT. WITH THE NEXT FOMC MEETING ON SEPTEMBER 16, RATE HIKE ODDS HAVE PUMPED TO AROUND 52%. NOW THAT...

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DANNY

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44,332 просмотров • 21 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 U.S. FED JUST LITERALLY CONFIRMED A RATE HIKE IN 2026! INFLATION, CONSUMER DATA, AND OTHER KEY INDICATORS ARE GETTING WORSE... NEW FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH IS PREPARING MARKETS FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES. ODDS OF A RATE HIKE IMMEDIATELY PUMPED TO 69%. THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS...
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IMPORTANT: 🇺🇸FED could hike interest rates by 25 BPS in September Odds for a rate hike have just pumped to 39.9% and keep pumping This is not good for markets...

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 FED is expected to hike interest rates by 50-75 BPS this year Odds for a rate hike in September have pumped to 52.7% This is not good for the markets...
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🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED HAS ALMOST CONFIRMED TWO INTEREST RATE HIKES IN 2026 ODDS OF A 50BPS RATE HIKE HAVE JUST PUMPED TO 33% FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS...

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🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 THE FED COULD SHOCK MARKETS WITH A 25 BPS RATE HIKE TODAY. ODDS JUST JUMPED TO 25%. A SURPRISE HIKE WOULD BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST FED SHOCKS IN YEARS. THIS IS SO BAD FOR MARKETS.
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🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 THE FED COULD SHOCK MARKETS WITH A 25 BPS RATE HIKE TODAY. ODDS JUST JUMPED TO 25%. A SURPRISE HIKE WOULD BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST FED SHOCKS IN YEARS. THIS IS SO BAD FOR MARKETS.

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🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 U.S. CPI JUST CAME IN AT 3.4%, EXACTLY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS, BUT... INFLATION IS HOLDING HIGH - AND THE FED STILL HAS A PROBLEM. SEPTEMBER RATE-HIKE ODDS ARE NOW SITTING AT 69%. THE PRESSURE ON THE FED JUST GOT EVEN BIGGER! 👀

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🚨 BREAKING THE FED WILL INJECT $2,122,000,000.00 INTO THE MARKETS TOMORROW AT 9:00 AM ET, MINUTES BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPENS. KEVIN WARSH JUST ORDERED THE FED TO START PRINTING TO PREVENT A HUGE CRASH CAUSED BY THE SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE! THIS IS ONLY THE FIRST INJECTION - THE FULL PLAN WILL BE PUBLISHED BY THE NEW YORK FED. THIS ISN'T STANDARD POLICY - THIS IS A RESCUE OPERATION! THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR: THE FED IS ALREADY PREPARING FOR SERIOUS MARKET STRESS AROUND THE SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE!👀
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🚨 BREAKING THE FED WILL INJECT $2,122,000,000.00 INTO THE MARKETS TOMORROW AT 9:00 AM ET, MINUTES BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPENS. KEVIN WARSH JUST ORDERED THE FED TO START PRINTING TO PREVENT A HUGE CRASH CAUSED BY THE SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE! THIS IS ONLY THE FIRST INJECTION - THE FULL PLAN WILL BE PUBLISHED BY THE NEW YORK FED. THIS ISN'T STANDARD POLICY - THIS IS A RESCUE OPERATION! THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR: THE FED IS ALREADY PREPARING FOR SERIOUS MARKET STRESS AROUND THE SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE!👀

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🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sounded hawkish at Jackson Hole - Inflation is still too high - The 2% target remains the priority - The economy is still strong - Rates may not be restrictive enough - Rate cuts could be harder to come by Bottom line: September rate-cut hopes just took a hit

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BREAKING: The FOMC decision drops today at 2 PM ET. Rates have been held at 3.50% to 3.75% since December. But this meeting is different. CME FedWatch just priced in a 37.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The highest odds seen all year. Oil above $100 a barrel. Gas up 38% since February. Kevin Warsh scrapped forward guidance entirely. No hints before the announcement. Just data. 62.1% still say hold. But markets haven't priced this much uncertainty into a "routine" meeting in years. A hold confirms the Fed sees inflation as temporary. A hike confirms it doesn't. 2 PM ET. Watch the statement, not the headlines.

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🚨FED’S WALLER SAYS CURRENT FED RATES MAY BE ENOUGH! Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he sees early signs of disinflation and, if that holds in the next two weeks of data, he would back keeping the funds rate where it is at the Sept. 15-16 meeting. He said there is no rush to cut until more progress shows, and that waiting one meeting is cheap. Hot inflation could still push him toward a hike.
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🚨FED’S WALLER SAYS CURRENT FED RATES MAY BE ENOUGH! Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he sees early signs of disinflation and, if that holds in the next two weeks of data, he would back keeping the funds rate where it is at the Sept. 15-16 meeting. He said there is no rush to cut until more progress shows, and that waiting one meeting is cheap. Hot inflation could still push him toward a hike.

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🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 THE FED IS SET TO INJECT $3.891 BILLION INTO THE ECONOMY TOMORROW AT 9:20 AM ET, JUST MINUTES BEFORE U.S. MARKETS OPEN. THIS COMES ONLY ONE DAY AFTER THE RATE HIKE — AND THE TIMING IS RAISING SERIOUS QUESTIONS! KEVIN WARSH IS RUSHING TO TURN THE MONEY PRINTERS BACK ON TO HELP PREVENT A MAJOR MARKET CRASH. THE FED’S MOVE SENDS A CLEAR SIGNAL: SOMETHING MAY BE WRONG! 🚨
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🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 THE FED IS SET TO INJECT $3.891 BILLION INTO THE ECONOMY TOMORROW AT 9:20 AM ET, JUST MINUTES BEFORE U.S. MARKETS OPEN. THIS COMES ONLY ONE DAY AFTER THE RATE HIKE — AND THE TIMING IS RAISING SERIOUS QUESTIONS! KEVIN WARSH IS RUSHING TO TURN THE MONEY PRINTERS BACK ON TO HELP PREVENT A MAJOR MARKET CRASH. THE FED’S MOVE SENDS A CLEAR SIGNAL: SOMETHING MAY BE WRONG! 🚨

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33,767 просмотров • 7 дней назад

I think the market is overpricing a Fed hike. Going in with 50% of a new $5K predictions portfolio, and may increase sizing if the odds for a hike spike more on Friday's CPI print. I won't claim claim to have much differentiated alpha here or to have a high degree of certainty, but when I see genuinley attractive odds, I like to go for them. We're in a trap here. If Warsh hikes and the US government can't afford the interest on debt that's 120% of GDP, the long end goes higher. If Warsh is dovish and inflation stays hot, the long end goes higher. The only logical course of action is to step up long end buybacks more and more aggressively because both scenarios end the same way? The cheapest fix is getting the short rate down so Bessent can fund more buybacks with cheap bills and If that still doesn't hold the long end, the Fed steps in and buys it directly. Now may not be the time to cut, but it's certainly not the time to hike. Don't forget Bessent and Warsh both worked for Druck with the same macro worldview, and Bessent pushed him for the job. Why would they not be working towards the same strategy?
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I think the market is overpricing a Fed hike. Going in with 50% of a new $5K predictions portfolio, and may increase sizing if the odds for a hike spike more on Friday's CPI print. I won't claim claim to have much differentiated alpha here or to have a high degree of certainty, but when I see genuinley attractive odds, I like to go for them. We're in a trap here. If Warsh hikes and the US government can't afford the interest on debt that's 120% of GDP, the long end goes higher. If Warsh is dovish and inflation stays hot, the long end goes higher. The only logical course of action is to step up long end buybacks more and more aggressively because both scenarios end the same way? The cheapest fix is getting the short rate down so Bessent can fund more buybacks with cheap bills and If that still doesn't hold the long end, the Fed steps in and buys it directly. Now may not be the time to cut, but it's certainly not the time to hike. Don't forget Bessent and Warsh both worked for Druck with the same macro worldview, and Bessent pushed him for the job. Why would they not be working towards the same strategy?

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86,157 просмотров • 15 дней назад

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump REACTS to the Federal Reserve RAISING interest rates for the first time in THREE YEARS "We are 'carrying' almost every country in the World, and that cannot go on any longer." POTUS says he wants interest rates at 1% OR LESS. After today's hike, the federal funds rate is 3.75 - 4% "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMP" The Fed made clear today that lowering interest rates anytime soon is VERY unlikely. Especially given the vote to raise them was UNANIMOUS. 7 of 7, including Chairman Warsh, voted to raise interest rates by a quarter point. Several of them have already indicated they want another rate hike this year.
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🚨 JUST IN: President Trump REACTS to the Federal Reserve RAISING interest rates for the first time in THREE YEARS "We are 'carrying' almost every country in the World, and that cannot go on any longer." POTUS says he wants interest rates at 1% OR LESS. After today's hike, the federal funds rate is 3.75 - 4% "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMP" The Fed made clear today that lowering interest rates anytime soon is VERY unlikely. Especially given the vote to raise them was UNANIMOUS. 7 of 7, including Chairman Warsh, voted to raise interest rates by a quarter point. Several of them have already indicated they want another rate hike this year.

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203,800 просмотров • 9 дней назад