Brian Armstrong on Bitcoin potentially hitting $400,000 by 2030 "Predicting the future is always difficult, and none of this is investment advice." "It's gone through many of these cycles now, where it'll have run-ups, oftentimes around the Bitcoin halving events, where the amount of Bitcoin being mined gets cut... in half, and then you'll see drawdowns, and usually they last about a year or so. We've just gone through one of those recently." "Nobody knows for sure, but if it follows similar patterns to the past, hopefully we've seen the bottom of this cycle around 60K or so on Bitcoin, and it's up a little bit from that now." "My hope is by 2030 we could see a $300,000, $400,000 Bitcoin. I think it'll keep going through these cycles." "And then of course, all the other parts of crypto are growing like wildfire regardless of the price of Bitcoin. Stablecoins and perpetual futures and prediction markets and agentic finance are just growing really nicely, regardless of what the price of Bitcoin is doing."show more

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The honest framing is refreshing. Four year cycle logic has taken hits before, but every cycle the institutional base gets bigger, so a 2030 target in that range is less crazy than the headline makes it sound.

Interesting outlook on Bitcoin’s cycles. Along with @AdamJohnstph, you’re at the top of my feed.

Everyone cites the 4-year halving cycle until TradFi liquidity runs the show. $400k sounds great for headlines, but the ETF era broke that old playbook.

I think that is possible but it has another significant down leg before it does this.

We have still 4 years but I can't trust

A small realization gave my whole week a lift. I want to hold onto what I learned here.

BTC will never hit $400k by 2030, never By 2030, it might be around $85k - $90k

fr armstrong talking about btc hitting 400k while the clarity act is dead is wild. regulation fud is just noise for crypto rn. solid post by you. you and @TylerWoolsey23 are my go to follows for keeping the bigger picture in focus tbh. both are goats

Standard CEO optimism on the 2030 price target, but the structural point buried in there is the actual alpha. The decoupling of crypto infrastructure—stablecoins, perps, and agentic finance—from BTC’s halving cycles is the real shift. If that underlying volume continues to compound independently of the broader market drawdowns, then the macro thesis holds water regardless of whether we chop around 60k or 80k for another year. We trade the tape in front of us, not four-year dreams, but watching that non-correlated growth is the proper tell for where institutional capital is actually parking. The halving narrative is just the wrapper; the plumbing is what matters.