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$BTC Going over Bitcoin and Bitcoin stocks with Decent setups $MSTR $IREN $MARA $CLSK $COIN A few names look one day away from a mini breakout, which could also set up great short opportunities later on.

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The Swing Trader

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24,900 views • 6 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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31,396 views • 2 months ago

I TESTED EVERY POSSIBLE BITCOIN VS. MSTR TRADE No cherry-picked years or convenient cycle bottoms here. Every possible entry and exit across 1,496 shared trading days from August 10, 2020 through July 24, 2026. 1,118,260 holding periods. MSTR beat Bitcoin in 68.75% of them. But that headline conceals the real discovery... that MSTR was basically a coin toss over short periods. 1 week: 46.8% win rate 1 month: 47.2% 3 months: 48.0% 6 months: 52.0% 1 year: 54.4% Over weeks and months, MSTR was louder Bitcoin with a necktie and a caffeine problem. Then time entered the room. 2 years: 64.0% win rate 3 years: 86.7% 4 years: 100.0% 5 years: 84.5% The median 4-year MSTR investment produced 108.6% more terminal wealth than Bitcoin. That means the median MSTR holder finished with approximately 2.09× as much money as the equivalent Bitcoin holder. And when every holding period of at least a certain length is included: 1+ years: MSTR won 76.0% 2+ years: 86.9% 3+ years: 96.1% 4+ years: 96.6% 5+ years: 92.3% Across the entire dataset: Median MSTR return: +127.5% Median Bitcoin return: +62.2% Median MSTR wealth advantage: +33.1% From the beginning of the study: $10,000 in MSTR became $74,167. $10,000 in Bitcoin became $53,951. The decisive variable was time in the market. MSTR wins by giving the machine enough runway to work.
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I TESTED EVERY POSSIBLE BITCOIN VS. MSTR TRADE No cherry-picked years or convenient cycle bottoms here. Every possible entry and exit across 1,496 shared trading days from August 10, 2020 through July 24, 2026. 1,118,260 holding periods. MSTR beat Bitcoin in 68.75% of them. But that headline conceals the real discovery... that MSTR was basically a coin toss over short periods. 1 week: 46.8% win rate 1 month: 47.2% 3 months: 48.0% 6 months: 52.0% 1 year: 54.4% Over weeks and months, MSTR was louder Bitcoin with a necktie and a caffeine problem. Then time entered the room. 2 years: 64.0% win rate 3 years: 86.7% 4 years: 100.0% 5 years: 84.5% The median 4-year MSTR investment produced 108.6% more terminal wealth than Bitcoin. That means the median MSTR holder finished with approximately 2.09× as much money as the equivalent Bitcoin holder. And when every holding period of at least a certain length is included: 1+ years: MSTR won 76.0% 2+ years: 86.9% 3+ years: 96.1% 4+ years: 96.6% 5+ years: 92.3% Across the entire dataset: Median MSTR return: +127.5% Median Bitcoin return: +62.2% Median MSTR wealth advantage: +33.1% From the beginning of the study: $10,000 in MSTR became $74,167. $10,000 in Bitcoin became $53,951. The decisive variable was time in the market. MSTR wins by giving the machine enough runway to work.

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46,368 views • 2 days ago