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🚨 $BTC VOLATILITY INCOMING! Bitcoin has been extremely volatile after every Jackson Hole since 2022. Friday 10:00 AM ET, Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair. IF DOVISH → BITCOIN BREAKS $80,000 AND RUNS IF HAWKISH → STRAIGHT BACK TO $73,000 IF NEUTRAL → CHOP Be ready.

112,473 次观看 • 21 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 次观看 • 4 个月前

Ray Dalio is right about one thing: Bitcoin forces you to think harder. But zoom out. 1) “Bitcoin has no privacy.” Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous. That’s by design. Transparency is what makes it auditable, trust-minimized, and globally verifiable. Privacy isn’t binary — it’s a spectrum. Second-layer solutions like Lightning Network improve transactional privacy, and self-custody + best practices eliminate counterparty surveillance. If your definition of “privacy” is “opaque like the banking system,” then yes — Bitcoin is different. It replaces institutional secrecy with mathematical transparency. 2) “Central banks don’t want to buy Bitcoin.” Correct. Central banks also didn’t want the internet, stablecoins, or gold leaving their vaults. Bitcoin isn’t competing for central bank approval. It’s competing as neutral collateral in a world of weaponized fiat. When sovereign debt hits structural limits, assets without counterparty risk win. That’s why individuals, institutions, ETFs, and even nation-states accumulate it — regardless of central bank preferences. 3) “Quantum computing issues.” If quantum breaks Bitcoin’s cryptography, it breaks the entire global financial system first — SWIFT, online banking, military communications. Bitcoin can upgrade via consensus long before that scenario materializes. Cryptography evolves. That’s not a flaw; that’s software. 4) “Relatively small and controlled market.” Every monetization process starts small. Gold was once a niche commodity. The internet was once “small and controlled.” Bitcoin’s market cap reflects 15 years of monetization — with no CEO, no marketing budget, and no state backing. And “controlled”? Try censoring a decentralized network running across tens of thousands of nodes worldwide. Dalio views Bitcoin through a macro-hedge lens. But Bitcoin isn’t just an asset. It’s: •Programmatic scarcity (21M hard cap) •Final settlement without intermediaries •Borderless value transfer •A hedge against monetary debasement The real question isn’t whether central banks want Bitcoin. It’s whether individuals want money that can’t be inflated, frozen, or diluted. History suggests they do.

Asaf · Satoshi Signal ⚡ @SatoshiSignal

22,503 次观看 • 6 个月前

satoshi never existed. nobody writes code like that. not that clean, not that surgical. the early bitcoin codebase doesn’t read like code from some anonymous guy on the internet. bitcoin's early codebase looks like it was handed to us. the whitepaper came out six weeks after the 2008 crash. that's not enough time to dream up a working distributed consensus system, let alone build one. then there’s secp256k1. not secp256r1, the curve everybody used. k1 was obscure, weird, and a terrible choice if you were just following convention. but it also happened to be one of the hardest to backdoor. and then satoshi disappears. roughly a million btc, untouched. people don’t walk away from that kind of money unless the money was never the point. because maybe bitcoin was never just money. what it actually did was create a global incentive to build compute. millions of people, in every country, pouring capital into hardware and electricity to chase block rewards. no state could have coordinated it that fast. no company could have justified it. a protocol paying out internet money gets people moving. then nvidia happened. the same GPUs pushed into the world for mining turned out to be perfect for large-scale parallel compute. the same hardware appetite bitcoin created ended up helping make modern deep learning possible. bitcoin launches in 2009. imagenet breaks things open in 2012. three years. bitcoin was the bootloader. and we’ve been running the install script.

tetsuo

53,736 次观看 • 5 个月前

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY!! The U.S. just hit the panic button. The odds of a Fed rate hike in September have jumped to 70%. U.S. Treasury is launching a $1 TRILLION buyback program to prevent a market crash. 99% of people will lose everything next week. And it won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will crash. Metals will dump. Bitcoin will collapse even harder. Insiders already know what's coming. They are not “buying the dip.” They are raising cash, cutting risk, and positioning for a catastrophic market event. Meanwhile, alarm bells are ringing across the global financial system. China is dumping U.S. Treasuries at an alarming rate, with holdings dropping to the lowest levels since 2008. Japan's bond market volatility has forced the BOJ back into QE, but it's not enough to stem the tide. The odds of a Fed rate hike in September have jumped to 70%. In response, the U.S. Treasury is launching a $1 TRILLION buyback program to prevent a market crash. Kevin Warsh already sounds hawkish at the Jackson Hole conference. This means interest rates will stay higher for longer. And global liquidity is disappearing fast: → Japanese bond yields are surging → Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening → Global bond markets are under heavy pressure → Volatility is spreading across asset classes → Liquidity is tightening worldwide It's already spiraling out of control. When this accelerates, there will be no time left to react. Risk assets won't “dip.” They will DUMP HARD. This is exactly how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing prolonged instability, the entire framework changes. I have spent 10+ tracking macro and systemic market reactions like this. I will share my next move here publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it reaches the headlines, it will be too late.

0xNobler

328,658 次观看 • 16 天前

The Bro Split that every young lad gets sold on looks like this.⠀ ⠀ Monday: Chest⠀ Tuesday: Back⠀ Wednesday: Rest⠀ Thursday: Legs⠀ Friday: Shoulders⠀ Saturday: Arms⠀ Sunday: Rest⠀ ⠀ And yes, Arnold did it. Arnold also took enough drugs to sedate a medium-sized country, so perhaps not the most transferable template.⠀ ⠀ The problem is simple. Each muscle here gets hit once a week. Train hard enough and you'll trigger a window of muscle protein synthesis that runs for roughly 2-3 days. After that the window closes, and the muscle fibres begin to catabolise slowly. The back half of the week isn't neutral. It's quietly eroding the growth stimulus you picked up on Monday.⠀ ⠀ Once a week is not a holding pattern. It's a losing one.⠀ ⠀ The fix is training each muscle at least twice. An upper/lower split does this cleanly.⠀ ⠀ Monday: Upper⠀ Tuesday: Lower⠀ Wednesday: Rest⠀ Thursday: Upper⠀ Friday: Rest⠀ Saturday: Lower⠀ Sunday: Rest⠀ ⠀ Same days in the gym. Every muscle getting two shots at the growth window per week instead of one.⠀ ⠀ If there's a specific muscle you want to bring up faster, glutes being the obvious example, you can push that to three times a week with a full body approach, hitting the priority muscle first in every session when you're freshest.⠀ ⠀ Monday: Full Body (glutes first)⠀ Wednesday: Full Body (glutes first)⠀ Friday: Full Body (glutes first)⠀ ⠀ More frequent stimulus. More growth windows captured. Less of the week spent sliding backwards.⠀ ⠀ The Bro Split isn't useless. It just isn't optimal. And if you're going to spend the time, you may as well spend it on something that actually works.⠀ ⠀ Minimum twice a week per muscle. Three if you're serious about a lagging group. The rest is just detail.

Sama Hoole

24,136 次观看 • 4 个月前