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Callsign TREASURER authenticates station callsign APPROXIMATE into the net. [aka (probably) Saturday morning happy fun time nuclear war command & control net (maybe)] #USAF #USNavy #USNews #OSINT

SoILRadioOperator

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25,286 次观看 • 8 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

新闻政治教育科学技术 #USAF #USNavy #USNews #OSINT

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Some more insight to the callsign SAM47, it refers to the 47th POTUS. Anywhere the POTUS flys, there is at least one backup jet that carries the callsign SAM (Special Air Mission) and then the whatever number the President is shadowing them. For Biden, it was SAM46, for Trump it was SAM45, and for Obama it was SAM44, etc. The POTUS will travel onboard the C-32A (Boeing 757) as well as the VC-25 (Boeing 747). I wanted to share some video of the C-32A picking up Obama in Chicago before the inauguration for a NatGeo special on AF1. It gives you some unique insight into this USAF squadron that is tasked with flying not only the POTUS, but various heads of state and politicians. You’ll see in the video the communications station on the C-32A which is rare to see. This aircraft is capable of a variety of communication abilities from phone calls to connecting the POTUS to the National Command Authority and launching nuclear weapons. There are other aircraft that are involved during POTUS travel and they do a pretty good job of hiding. 😎

Some more insight to the callsign SAM47, it refers to the 47th POTUS. Anywhere the POTUS flys, there is at least one backup jet that carries the callsign SAM (Special Air Mission) and then the whatever number the President is shadowing them. For Biden, it was SAM46, for Trump it was SAM45, and for Obama it was SAM44, etc. The POTUS will travel onboard the C-32A (Boeing 757) as well as the VC-25 (Boeing 747). I wanted to share some video of the C-32A picking up Obama in Chicago before the inauguration for a NatGeo special on AF1. It gives you some unique insight into this USAF squadron that is tasked with flying not only the POTUS, but various heads of state and politicians. You’ll see in the video the communications station on the C-32A which is rare to see. This aircraft is capable of a variety of communication abilities from phone calls to connecting the POTUS to the National Command Authority and launching nuclear weapons. There are other aircraft that are involved during POTUS travel and they do a pretty good job of hiding. 😎

Thenewarea51

57,990 次观看 • 1 年前

🚨 While you were asleep, the war shifted. Here’s how... OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - 3/25 to 3/26 • Israel sustained a broad overnight strike campaign inside Iran, with Reuters reporting a wide new strike wave and your outbox capturing repeated explosions and reported air activity in Isfahan, Shiraz, Tehran, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Najafabad, Khomeini Shahr, and other locations. • Iran’s direct fire into Israel remained dangerous but uneven. A missile fell near Hadera in what appeared to be an attempted strike near the Orot Rabin power station, while additional Iranian missile waves hit central Israel on Thursday morning. • Hezbollah kept the northern and central threat picture active, with Israeli and Jerusalem Post reporting indicating rocket fire toward northern Israel and the Tel Aviv area while Israel continued strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon. • Diplomacy did not meaningfully advance. Reuters reported Tehran is reviewing a U.S. proposal while rejecting the idea of actual negotiations, demanding formal control of Hormuz, guarantees against renewed attacks, and Lebanon’s inclusion in any ceasefire framework. • The Gulf and wider regional fronts stayed central. Kuwait’s airport fuel tank was hit by a drone, Gulf states told the U.N. Iranian attacks pose an existential threat, and your transcript underscored Tehran’s messaging that it intends to tie any endgame to Hormuz and potentially wider maritime pressure. The defining narrative in this reporting window was not a single headline strike but the shape of the war itself. Israel kept pressing deeper and wider inside Iran, Iran remained defiant in public while signaling maximalist terms through intermediaries, Hezbollah stayed fully engaged, and the Gulf front continued to harden. Tehran’s messaging was not the language of de escalation. It was the language of a regime trying to preserve leverage through Hormuz, Hezbollah, and regional coercion even as the military pressure on its own infrastructure intensified. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ *⃣ IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL The clearest operational signal on the Israeli home front was the missile that fell near Hadera. Times of Israel reported that the impact was in an open area near the IEC’s major power station and that no infrastructure damage was caused. That matters because the targeting logic appears to have been strategic infrastructure, not just another general population area. Open source intel reporting strengthens that reading with reporting tying the strike area to the Orot Rabin facility, later messaging that Iran had publicized the plant’s coordinates and described the earlier impact as a warning shot, and repeated confirmation that no major infrastructure damage was reported. At the same time, Reuters reported that by Thursday Iran had launched multiple new missile waves at Israel, with sirens in Tel Aviv and other areas and at least five people injured. That suggests the broader pattern is not that Iran has lost the ability to strike, but that its direct fire is becoming more intermittent and less dominant than earlier in the conflict. Reuters also cited CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper saying Iranian drone and missile launch rates are down by more than 90 percent. That is the important distinction this morning. Iran can still generate painful and politically charged attacks, especially when it tries to threaten energy or symbolic infrastructure, but the cadence looks less like sustained strategic pressure and more like punctuated salvos inside a broader degradation trend. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ *⃣ STRATEGIC AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN The main operational story overnight was the continued spread of strikes across Iranian territory. Reuters reported that strikes hit a residential zone in Bandar Abbas, a village outside Shiraz where Tasnim said two teenage brothers were killed, and a university building in Isfahan, while the Israeli military said it had completed a wide scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure in Iran. Open source intel adds the operational texture mainstream coverage only partly captured. It logged eyewitness and opposition sourced reporting of explosions or low flying aircraft in Malard, Shiraz, Tehran, Isfahan, Najafabad, Khomeini Shahr, Qeshm, Talesh, Bandar Abbas, and Aligudarz. It also captured claims of a possible targeted assassination attempt against senior Iranian naval figures in Bandar Abbas and reporting of smoke over the port city after a reported U.S. attempt on a senior figure. Those Bandar Abbas details remain less firmly confirmed than the wider strike wave itself, but they fit the pattern of pressure on Iran’s southern maritime and naval infrastructure. This is the key point. The strike campaign continues to broaden into much more than a narrow nuclear file. It is hitting military infrastructure, industrial capacity, maritime assets, command nodes, and whatever leadership or specialist personnel Israel and the U.S. assess as essential to Iran’s ability to keep fighting and regenerate capability. Reuters’ reporting that Israel completed another large infrastructure wave is consistent with that larger pattern. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ *⃣ LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH FRONT Lebanon remained fully tied to the main war. Reuters reported that Iran told intermediaries Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire arrangement, which is one of the clearest strategic indicators yet that Tehran sees Hezbollah’s position as inseparable from the end state it wants. On the ground, Hezbollah remained active. Jerusalem Post’s live coverage led with two injured after Hezbollah rocket fire in the north and referenced a missile near Hadera as part of the same broad war picture. Reuters separately reported Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem rejecting talks with Israel under fire and vowing fighters would continue “without limits.” Open source intelligence adds the tactical layer: Hezbollah had launched about 120 rockets from populated neighborhoods in Tyre since the start of the operation, that the IDF struck Hezbollah targets including a command center in Dahieh, and that Israeli aircraft eliminated a Hezbollah cell after it launched rockets at IDF forces in southern Lebanon. The practical takeaway is that Hezbollah is not behaving like a secondary theater waiting for diplomacy. It is still an active front and, diplomatically, one of Tehran’s key red lines. That makes Lebanon both a battlefield and a central piece of the bargaining struggle now underway. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ *⃣ GULF / HORMUZ / ENERGY WAR The Gulf front remained one of the most consequential dimensions of the war. Reuters reported that a drone hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties. Reuters also reported Gulf Arab states told the U.N. Human Rights Council that Iranian strikes now pose an existential threat. Reuters also reported that Iran is demanding formal control of the Strait of Hormuz as part of its position on ending the war, while AP described Tehran’s counterproposal as including sovereignty over the Strait and continued insistence on its own conditions. Reuters further noted that the Strait remains effectively closed and cited ADNOC chief Sultan Al Jaber calling Iran’s restriction of passage “economic terrorism.” Iranian state messaging framed Hormuz sovereignty, reparations, and guarantees against resumed attacks as core ceasefire conditions, and also warned of broader maritime pressure, including possible escalation around Bab al Mandab, which is highly relevant as a reflection of the regime’s messaging line. This is why the Gulf theater matters so much this morning. Tehran’s leverage is no longer just missiles into Israel. It is also maritime chokehold, energy disruption, and the threat of widening economic pain across the region and beyond. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ *⃣ POLITICAL / DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS Diplomatically, the most important development was not progress but clarity. Reuters reported that Iran is reviewing a U.S. ceasefire proposal but says there are no negotiations, while Iranian officials publicly mocked Washington’s claims that talks are under way. Reuters also reported the U.S. proposal contains sweeping demands ranging from dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and curbing missiles to effectively handing over control of Hormuz, while Tehran is demanding guarantees, compensation, formal Strait control, and Lebanon’s inclusion. Iranian state television also carrying language that Tehran will end the war when it decides to do so and only on its own conditions showing the regime is posturing and why a quick off ramp still looks unlikely. On the Israeli side, the government approved a reserve call up ceiling of up to 400,000 reservists, according to Times of Israel. That does not mean all are being mobilized immediately, but it is a strong indicator that Jerusalem wants maximum flexibility for a conflict that still spans Iran and Lebanon simultaneously. In related news the Knesset committee move toward a special military tribunal for October 7 perpetrators and a separate death penalty push. Those are not central operational developments for the war front, but they do show the political system continuing to harden in parallel with the regional conflict. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ *⃣ WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW What changed in the last 24 hours is that the war kept widening sideways even as Iran’s direct military pressure on Israel looked less overwhelming than earlier phases. ➡️Inside Iran, the strike campaign remained broad, geographically dispersed, and increasingly focused on infrastructure that matters to long term war capacity. ➡️Against Israel, Tehran still showed it can threaten high value targets and generate fresh missile waves, but the pattern looks more episodic than dominant. ➡️In Lebanon, Hezbollah remained active and politically central to any prospective endgame. In the Gulf, the war’s economic and maritime dimension kept hardening, which may now be one of Tehran’s most important remaining pressure tools. ➡️And politically Tehran is not signaling real compromise. It is signaling defiance, maximalist conditions, and an attempt to preserve leverage through Hormuz and Hezbollah while absorbing continued military punishment. That is the signal leading this morning. Not that the war is cooling. It is that Iran’s center of gravity is continuing to shift from sustained direct fire toward a more distributed strategy of intermittent strikes, regional proxy pressure, and maritime coercion while Israel keeps trying to cut deeper into the infrastructure that makes those options possible. **Special thanks to Michael W for your continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. If you aren't already, give him a follow and stay informed.

🚨 While you were asleep, the war shifted. Here’s how... OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - 3/25 to 3/26 • Israel sustained a broad overnight strike campaign inside Iran, with Reuters reporting a wide new strike wave and your outbox capturing repeated explosions and reported air activity in Isfahan, Shiraz, Tehran, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Najafabad, Khomeini Shahr, and other locations. • Iran’s direct fire into Israel remained dangerous but uneven. A missile fell near Hadera in what appeared to be an attempted strike near the Orot Rabin power station, while additional Iranian missile waves hit central Israel on Thursday morning. • Hezbollah kept the northern and central threat picture active, with Israeli and Jerusalem Post reporting indicating rocket fire toward northern Israel and the Tel Aviv area while Israel continued strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon. • Diplomacy did not meaningfully advance. Reuters reported Tehran is reviewing a U.S. proposal while rejecting the idea of actual negotiations, demanding formal control of Hormuz, guarantees against renewed attacks, and Lebanon’s inclusion in any ceasefire framework. • The Gulf and wider regional fronts stayed central. Kuwait’s airport fuel tank was hit by a drone, Gulf states told the U.N. Iranian attacks pose an existential threat, and your transcript underscored Tehran’s messaging that it intends to tie any endgame to Hormuz and potentially wider maritime pressure. The defining narrative in this reporting window was not a single headline strike but the shape of the war itself. Israel kept pressing deeper and wider inside Iran, Iran remained defiant in public while signaling maximalist terms through intermediaries, Hezbollah stayed fully engaged, and the Gulf front continued to harden. Tehran’s messaging was not the language of de escalation. It was the language of a regime trying to preserve leverage through Hormuz, Hezbollah, and regional coercion even as the military pressure on its own infrastructure intensified. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⃣ IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL The clearest operational signal on the Israeli home front was the missile that fell near Hadera. Times of Israel reported that the impact was in an open area near the IEC’s major power station and that no infrastructure damage was caused. That matters because the targeting logic appears to have been strategic infrastructure, not just another general population area. Open source intel reporting strengthens that reading with reporting tying the strike area to the Orot Rabin facility, later messaging that Iran had publicized the plant’s coordinates and described the earlier impact as a warning shot, and repeated confirmation that no major infrastructure damage was reported. At the same time, Reuters reported that by Thursday Iran had launched multiple new missile waves at Israel, with sirens in Tel Aviv and other areas and at least five people injured. That suggests the broader pattern is not that Iran has lost the ability to strike, but that its direct fire is becoming more intermittent and less dominant than earlier in the conflict. Reuters also cited CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper saying Iranian drone and missile launch rates are down by more than 90 percent. That is the important distinction this morning. Iran can still generate painful and politically charged attacks, especially when it tries to threaten energy or symbolic infrastructure, but the cadence looks less like sustained strategic pressure and more like punctuated salvos inside a broader degradation trend. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⃣ STRATEGIC AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN The main operational story overnight was the continued spread of strikes across Iranian territory. Reuters reported that strikes hit a residential zone in Bandar Abbas, a village outside Shiraz where Tasnim said two teenage brothers were killed, and a university building in Isfahan, while the Israeli military said it had completed a wide scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure in Iran. Open source intel adds the operational texture mainstream coverage only partly captured. It logged eyewitness and opposition sourced reporting of explosions or low flying aircraft in Malard, Shiraz, Tehran, Isfahan, Najafabad, Khomeini Shahr, Qeshm, Talesh, Bandar Abbas, and Aligudarz. It also captured claims of a possible targeted assassination attempt against senior Iranian naval figures in Bandar Abbas and reporting of smoke over the port city after a reported U.S. attempt on a senior figure. Those Bandar Abbas details remain less firmly confirmed than the wider strike wave itself, but they fit the pattern of pressure on Iran’s southern maritime and naval infrastructure. This is the key point. The strike campaign continues to broaden into much more than a narrow nuclear file. It is hitting military infrastructure, industrial capacity, maritime assets, command nodes, and whatever leadership or specialist personnel Israel and the U.S. assess as essential to Iran’s ability to keep fighting and regenerate capability. Reuters’ reporting that Israel completed another large infrastructure wave is consistent with that larger pattern. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⃣ LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH FRONT Lebanon remained fully tied to the main war. Reuters reported that Iran told intermediaries Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire arrangement, which is one of the clearest strategic indicators yet that Tehran sees Hezbollah’s position as inseparable from the end state it wants. On the ground, Hezbollah remained active. Jerusalem Post’s live coverage led with two injured after Hezbollah rocket fire in the north and referenced a missile near Hadera as part of the same broad war picture. Reuters separately reported Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem rejecting talks with Israel under fire and vowing fighters would continue “without limits.” Open source intelligence adds the tactical layer: Hezbollah had launched about 120 rockets from populated neighborhoods in Tyre since the start of the operation, that the IDF struck Hezbollah targets including a command center in Dahieh, and that Israeli aircraft eliminated a Hezbollah cell after it launched rockets at IDF forces in southern Lebanon. The practical takeaway is that Hezbollah is not behaving like a secondary theater waiting for diplomacy. It is still an active front and, diplomatically, one of Tehran’s key red lines. That makes Lebanon both a battlefield and a central piece of the bargaining struggle now underway. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⃣ GULF / HORMUZ / ENERGY WAR The Gulf front remained one of the most consequential dimensions of the war. Reuters reported that a drone hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties. Reuters also reported Gulf Arab states told the U.N. Human Rights Council that Iranian strikes now pose an existential threat. Reuters also reported that Iran is demanding formal control of the Strait of Hormuz as part of its position on ending the war, while AP described Tehran’s counterproposal as including sovereignty over the Strait and continued insistence on its own conditions. Reuters further noted that the Strait remains effectively closed and cited ADNOC chief Sultan Al Jaber calling Iran’s restriction of passage “economic terrorism.” Iranian state messaging framed Hormuz sovereignty, reparations, and guarantees against resumed attacks as core ceasefire conditions, and also warned of broader maritime pressure, including possible escalation around Bab al Mandab, which is highly relevant as a reflection of the regime’s messaging line. This is why the Gulf theater matters so much this morning. Tehran’s leverage is no longer just missiles into Israel. It is also maritime chokehold, energy disruption, and the threat of widening economic pain across the region and beyond. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⃣ POLITICAL / DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS Diplomatically, the most important development was not progress but clarity. Reuters reported that Iran is reviewing a U.S. ceasefire proposal but says there are no negotiations, while Iranian officials publicly mocked Washington’s claims that talks are under way. Reuters also reported the U.S. proposal contains sweeping demands ranging from dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and curbing missiles to effectively handing over control of Hormuz, while Tehran is demanding guarantees, compensation, formal Strait control, and Lebanon’s inclusion. Iranian state television also carrying language that Tehran will end the war when it decides to do so and only on its own conditions showing the regime is posturing and why a quick off ramp still looks unlikely. On the Israeli side, the government approved a reserve call up ceiling of up to 400,000 reservists, according to Times of Israel. That does not mean all are being mobilized immediately, but it is a strong indicator that Jerusalem wants maximum flexibility for a conflict that still spans Iran and Lebanon simultaneously. In related news the Knesset committee move toward a special military tribunal for October 7 perpetrators and a separate death penalty push. Those are not central operational developments for the war front, but they do show the political system continuing to harden in parallel with the regional conflict. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⃣ WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW What changed in the last 24 hours is that the war kept widening sideways even as Iran’s direct military pressure on Israel looked less overwhelming than earlier phases. ➡️Inside Iran, the strike campaign remained broad, geographically dispersed, and increasingly focused on infrastructure that matters to long term war capacity. ➡️Against Israel, Tehran still showed it can threaten high value targets and generate fresh missile waves, but the pattern looks more episodic than dominant. ➡️In Lebanon, Hezbollah remained active and politically central to any prospective endgame. In the Gulf, the war’s economic and maritime dimension kept hardening, which may now be one of Tehran’s most important remaining pressure tools. ➡️And politically Tehran is not signaling real compromise. It is signaling defiance, maximalist conditions, and an attempt to preserve leverage through Hormuz and Hezbollah while absorbing continued military punishment. That is the signal leading this morning. Not that the war is cooling. It is that Iran’s center of gravity is continuing to shift from sustained direct fire toward a more distributed strategy of intermittent strikes, regional proxy pressure, and maritime coercion while Israel keeps trying to cut deeper into the infrastructure that makes those options possible. **Special thanks to Michael W for your continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. If you aren't already, give him a follow and stay informed.

Inside_Israel_Intel

105,623 次观看 • 4 个月前

It is time we talk about Alex Hawke and his Indian connection. The shadowy backdrop to his demanding for an apology from Jacinta Price - "to help her" - for her rather innocent and well-meaning statement. Which she has further clarified. It’s not about good politics for Alex - it’s desperation. He just didn’t bank on her response. Maybe it is because she’s buoyed by her spectacular performance on the voice. Or maybe it is because as a new entrant, she's not a product of a party that has been cowering to Hawke’s nonsense for almost two decades. Either way, the Liberal Party is caught in no man’s land, as an often silent but sometimes public brutal factional war rages between two forces. It is far from being the principled party of Menzies. It’s not the party of Howard, of Abbott, or even of Turnbull. Not anymore. Under Ley, the party is more of a Teal apologist organisation. It is so incapable of opposition, many wonder why it still officially holds the space at all. With Ley at the helm and the NSW division in administration, Alex Hawke and the lobbyist left is firmly in charge of both the party organisation, and the parliamentary team. That is one side of the war. On the other side, the conservatives, those “we believe” Liberals, those much happier in coalition with the Net Zero rejecting National party. Those that want to see a return to a party focused on small government, lower taxes, individual initiative, farmers, and small business. They're not owned by lobbyist forces, and don't genuflect to the latest identity politics driven brain fart. I personally believe the Liberals need to find their centre-right roots, and fast. I believe they need to start opposing Labor and holding them to account. That starts when they finally deal with the mess that is Alex Hawke. Hawke has always been surrounded by a cloud of controversy, from his splitting of the right of the party, to his constant messing in pre-selections, and his obsessive control over the NSW division. The Hawke faction never seemed to have any qualms doing bad things to good people. Always running toward expediency, they give way on the big important things (like Net Zero), for perceived short-term gain. It is my opinion they are the reason for the mess Australia is in right now. Too many talentless, feckless and inauthentic people have been placed into parliament by a captured organisation, and now there is little leadership, vision or talent more capable than Hawke himself. Which is not very capable at all. We can all see in, the rouge has worn thin and no amount of bullying, or breathless, terrible, virtue signalling photo-ops will draw the curtain back over the window. The Hawke left machine is filled with lobbyists, vested interests and careerists. From Green energy interests, migration agents, hired-gun lobbyists (who put corporate interests ahead of the national interest) and in Hawkes case – a conference, Mitchell, allegedly operated together with radical elements of the Indian BJP. Four Corners did a deep dive into the subject, and the evidence is more than circumstantial. They produced an episode titled “Infiltrating Australia – India's secret war” focused on India’s influence on the Australian political landscape. Of course, this does not mean all people of Indian descent are infiltrators, or that they are not welcome in this country. It does not mean that Australia should not have a sensible migration program, or any of the rest. But at this time in the midst of a housing crisis, and a slowing economy, where access to services is becoming harder and harder, surely the Liberal party must sensibly prosecute a case to curb our intake. It is in the national interest, getting somewhere to live is becoming neigh on impossible and common courtesy dictates that rapidly adding more bodies needing even more homes is just bad manners. I would suggest Hawke is less motivated by the national interest, and instead his personal and factional interest – conversely, I say Jacinta Nampijinpa Price has the national interest at heart. Worse, there is indeed a reasonable accusation that this rapid immigration tips the electoral balance in Labor’s favour. A genuine opposition would surely be running this story on high rotation. Not apologising for calling it out. The Liberals have not learned anything, not from 2022, and not from this year's election. The crucial NSW party is in a worse position than ever, and the evils of the destructive factional war there have spread across the nation. They will not provide an opposition or govern ‘til the war is resolved, and people of principle - not vapid spivs or lobbyist aligned hacks - are back in charge of the organisation. And when they are, they must clean out the rot - root and branch. If they don't it is entirely possible, the Liberals wipe themselves off the map. Whatever happens, we desperately need an opposition in this country and fast, so we can have some hope. We need an authentic opposition to drag Australia out of the funk. It’s been a very long time. I just want Australia back.

It is time we talk about Alex Hawke and his Indian connection. The shadowy backdrop to his demanding for an apology from Jacinta Price - "to help her" - for her rather innocent and well-meaning statement. Which she has further clarified. It’s not about good politics for Alex - it’s desperation. He just didn’t bank on her response. Maybe it is because she’s buoyed by her spectacular performance on the voice. Or maybe it is because as a new entrant, she's not a product of a party that has been cowering to Hawke’s nonsense for almost two decades. Either way, the Liberal Party is caught in no man’s land, as an often silent but sometimes public brutal factional war rages between two forces. It is far from being the principled party of Menzies. It’s not the party of Howard, of Abbott, or even of Turnbull. Not anymore. Under Ley, the party is more of a Teal apologist organisation. It is so incapable of opposition, many wonder why it still officially holds the space at all. With Ley at the helm and the NSW division in administration, Alex Hawke and the lobbyist left is firmly in charge of both the party organisation, and the parliamentary team. That is one side of the war. On the other side, the conservatives, those “we believe” Liberals, those much happier in coalition with the Net Zero rejecting National party. Those that want to see a return to a party focused on small government, lower taxes, individual initiative, farmers, and small business. They're not owned by lobbyist forces, and don't genuflect to the latest identity politics driven brain fart. I personally believe the Liberals need to find their centre-right roots, and fast. I believe they need to start opposing Labor and holding them to account. That starts when they finally deal with the mess that is Alex Hawke. Hawke has always been surrounded by a cloud of controversy, from his splitting of the right of the party, to his constant messing in pre-selections, and his obsessive control over the NSW division. The Hawke faction never seemed to have any qualms doing bad things to good people. Always running toward expediency, they give way on the big important things (like Net Zero), for perceived short-term gain. It is my opinion they are the reason for the mess Australia is in right now. Too many talentless, feckless and inauthentic people have been placed into parliament by a captured organisation, and now there is little leadership, vision or talent more capable than Hawke himself. Which is not very capable at all. We can all see in, the rouge has worn thin and no amount of bullying, or breathless, terrible, virtue signalling photo-ops will draw the curtain back over the window. The Hawke left machine is filled with lobbyists, vested interests and careerists. From Green energy interests, migration agents, hired-gun lobbyists (who put corporate interests ahead of the national interest) and in Hawkes case – a conference, Mitchell, allegedly operated together with radical elements of the Indian BJP. Four Corners did a deep dive into the subject, and the evidence is more than circumstantial. They produced an episode titled “Infiltrating Australia – India's secret war” focused on India’s influence on the Australian political landscape. Of course, this does not mean all people of Indian descent are infiltrators, or that they are not welcome in this country. It does not mean that Australia should not have a sensible migration program, or any of the rest. But at this time in the midst of a housing crisis, and a slowing economy, where access to services is becoming harder and harder, surely the Liberal party must sensibly prosecute a case to curb our intake. It is in the national interest, getting somewhere to live is becoming neigh on impossible and common courtesy dictates that rapidly adding more bodies needing even more homes is just bad manners. I would suggest Hawke is less motivated by the national interest, and instead his personal and factional interest – conversely, I say Jacinta Nampijinpa Price has the national interest at heart. Worse, there is indeed a reasonable accusation that this rapid immigration tips the electoral balance in Labor’s favour. A genuine opposition would surely be running this story on high rotation. Not apologising for calling it out. The Liberals have not learned anything, not from 2022, and not from this year's election. The crucial NSW party is in a worse position than ever, and the evils of the destructive factional war there have spread across the nation. They will not provide an opposition or govern ‘til the war is resolved, and people of principle - not vapid spivs or lobbyist aligned hacks - are back in charge of the organisation. And when they are, they must clean out the rot - root and branch. If they don't it is entirely possible, the Liberals wipe themselves off the map. Whatever happens, we desperately need an opposition in this country and fast, so we can have some hope. We need an authentic opposition to drag Australia out of the funk. It’s been a very long time. I just want Australia back.

Matthew Camenzuli

32,332 次观看 • 11 个月前

"Very often what happens is that the architects die, and they leave a zombie. We seem to be in a zombie era." The whole time I was watching the discussion between Jesse Michels and Eric Weinstein and Eric Davis, I felt like there was some darker thing lurking beneath the surface that connects the seemingly intentional stagnation of physics as a scientific discipline, the extreme secrecy surrounding the alleged UAP crash retrieval/reverse engineering program and the lack of any theoretical physicists working the problem, and the government's stated intention to control (per Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸) the future of AI -- a future where there's no point investing in AI startups because “we [the government] are going to make sure that AI is going to be a function of two or three large companies. We will directly regulate and control those companies. There will be no startups.” And there's the other part Andreessen recounted from his White House meeting. He was told by the [Biden] administration that "During the Cold War, we [the federal government] classified entire areas of physics and took them out of the research community — entire branches of physics basically went dark and didn't proceed. If we decide we need to [for AI/math], we're going to do the same thing." Take a minute and think about that, because it's actually chilling. A clear precedent has been cited here -- one none of us knew about before Andreessen brought it to our attention -- and it raises two big questions: 1) Why? 2) HOW? Weinstein returns multiple times in this episode to the diminishingly small number of people who have the capacity to operate at the highest levels of physics and math. And whenever you have a small number of people who act as the natural gating function for something incredibly powerful, it's not a leap to imagine an additional layer of control being placed on them by pressure from outside. Whether that's through legal threats like "born secret," NDAs, direct threats of physical harm, money, regulation, etc., there are ways to lock down the gatekeepers so that they never do the thing -- at least not in public -- that the most powerful people in the world don't want them to do. Weinstein kept saying, about both the seemingly intentional stagnation of physics and the lack of physicists working the UAP problem, "this makes no sense." But it does make sense if you shift the frame to, "they don't want us to find the answers and are actively trying to stop us." The feeling I kept getting as I watched this fascinating discussion was that the legacy crash retrieval program used to have a lot more direct oversight and funding decades ago, but that the compartmentalization and secrecy around it turned it into more and more of an oxbow lake, and that as it got cut off from the conventional scientific community and defense establishment, it became more secretive, less well-funded, and less coordinated. So it kind of became its own siloed-off thing that fewer and fewer people knew about, but the people who did still know protected the territory fiercely. And then came the era of AAWSAP and AATIP and UAPTF, and without the deep, secret, institutional knowledge held by members of the legacy program, they tried to piece together what had happened in the past while not being able to penetrate the sort of firewall that existed partially because of controlled secrecy, and partially because of the firewalling effect of time. They were doing a lot of cold case file work, while running into the deepest of deep state secrecy efforts. That secrecy, at least based on my reading of the situation, was instituted decades ago, when the atomic-era scientific community (mostly the same group of geniuses that were at the top of the Manhattan Project) got together and -- probably at the behest of of the US government -- decided physics was becoming too dangerous if it continued down the path that it was on. So, as my spitball theory goes, they intentionally beached the entire enterprise on the shoals of string theory and quantized gravity and all the stuff Weinstein talks about everywhere he goes -- the "dogs that won't hunt" that are also "the only game in town." The very theories that have, in the real world, run physics aground. So let's come back to Andreessen's point here: they classified entire branches of physics and took them out of the research community, while real physics went off on a wild goose chase that has yielded precious few demonstrable results in the past half century or so. The effect is that the physics community has been off the scent for so long that anyone old enough to have held the knowledge that was shoved back into Pandora's proverbial box through extreme secrecy measures is now dead. And their taking of that knowledge to the grave may well be a critical part of the secrecy effort. Dead physicists tell no tales. I have this eerie sense that we scared ourselves shitless with certain discoveries (likely knowledge that followed from nuclear physics, which is itself still highly protected and curtailed) and decided that the only way to stop our headlong rush into world-ending catastrophe was to literally bury the knowledge and wait until everyone who had it died off. The government looks, at least to me, to have cauterized a destructive branch in the scientific timeline like they were the Time Variance Authority from Marvel comics. 80 years of claimed zero-progress in reverse-engineering alleged crashed or recovered UAPs. 40+ years of dead-ended physics. Only two or three major AI companies, one of which is now in a fight to the death with the Department of War. And the rumors that AI has "plateaued" or even "dead-ended" in its progress that keep springing up has potential echoes in the AI world of physics being diverted into String Theory. I'm not a mathematician or a physicist. I can't examine all the deeper particulars because I have neither the knowledge or the training. I only have surface level pattern recognition, and that tells me it all feels connected. The problem for the gatekeepers is that you can't bury knowledge that has been discovered once indefinitely. It's certain that all of this will be figured out again. And as Weinstein pointed out about a couple of non-physicists who figured out how to piece together nuclear weapons based on declassified information and publicly available knowledge, it IS happening. But it seems that at least on the individual basis, those green shoots are being pruned. Weinstein asks why none of the people who funded his education are "interested" in his Grand Unifying Theory. Weinstein is too well-known and too well-respected to just be taken out of play. They can't buy him off. They can't make him disappear without drawing more attention. So maybe they just hope that Geometric Unity will die on its own. Maybe they are behind the attacks on GU as something totally unserious. Maybe they have found a way to make other members of the physics community willing to look away. So, my question about this larger hypothetical operation to stop dangerous science and math is this: was it really just a massive kicking of the can down the road. Did they hoped it would buy us time? And if so, to what end? What are they waiting for? Can this game really be played forever? Maybe they think it can. Maybe they have an ongoing directive to keep suppressing this knowledge for as long as possible, and perhaps there's some secret core group whose job is to be the perpetual gatekeepers of potentially civilization-ending secrets. Maybe the Epstein connection to all of this was precisely because he was part of the operation to discover who was doing forbidden work and assess their progress. Maybe that's why, when he met Weinstein, he knew so much about GU. It's impossible to say with any certainty, but as a theory, it does have some real explanatory power. I find myself thinking of the fictional Brothers of the Cruciform Sword in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade -- a small, ancient, secret society whose job it was to keep tabs on people looking for the Holy Grail and stop them, so it doesn't fall into the wrong hands. Are we following the same track here? Could this, as crazy as it sounds, be the missing connective tissue in this mystery?

"Very often what happens is that the architects die, and they leave a zombie. We seem to be in a zombie era." The whole time I was watching the discussion between Jesse Michels and Eric Weinstein and Eric Davis, I felt like there was some darker thing lurking beneath the surface that connects the seemingly intentional stagnation of physics as a scientific discipline, the extreme secrecy surrounding the alleged UAP crash retrieval/reverse engineering program and the lack of any theoretical physicists working the problem, and the government's stated intention to control (per Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸) the future of AI -- a future where there's no point investing in AI startups because “we [the government] are going to make sure that AI is going to be a function of two or three large companies. We will directly regulate and control those companies. There will be no startups.” And there's the other part Andreessen recounted from his White House meeting. He was told by the [Biden] administration that "During the Cold War, we [the federal government] classified entire areas of physics and took them out of the research community — entire branches of physics basically went dark and didn't proceed. If we decide we need to [for AI/math], we're going to do the same thing." Take a minute and think about that, because it's actually chilling. A clear precedent has been cited here -- one none of us knew about before Andreessen brought it to our attention -- and it raises two big questions: 1) Why? 2) HOW? Weinstein returns multiple times in this episode to the diminishingly small number of people who have the capacity to operate at the highest levels of physics and math. And whenever you have a small number of people who act as the natural gating function for something incredibly powerful, it's not a leap to imagine an additional layer of control being placed on them by pressure from outside. Whether that's through legal threats like "born secret," NDAs, direct threats of physical harm, money, regulation, etc., there are ways to lock down the gatekeepers so that they never do the thing -- at least not in public -- that the most powerful people in the world don't want them to do. Weinstein kept saying, about both the seemingly intentional stagnation of physics and the lack of physicists working the UAP problem, "this makes no sense." But it does make sense if you shift the frame to, "they don't want us to find the answers and are actively trying to stop us." The feeling I kept getting as I watched this fascinating discussion was that the legacy crash retrieval program used to have a lot more direct oversight and funding decades ago, but that the compartmentalization and secrecy around it turned it into more and more of an oxbow lake, and that as it got cut off from the conventional scientific community and defense establishment, it became more secretive, less well-funded, and less coordinated. So it kind of became its own siloed-off thing that fewer and fewer people knew about, but the people who did still know protected the territory fiercely. And then came the era of AAWSAP and AATIP and UAPTF, and without the deep, secret, institutional knowledge held by members of the legacy program, they tried to piece together what had happened in the past while not being able to penetrate the sort of firewall that existed partially because of controlled secrecy, and partially because of the firewalling effect of time. They were doing a lot of cold case file work, while running into the deepest of deep state secrecy efforts. That secrecy, at least based on my reading of the situation, was instituted decades ago, when the atomic-era scientific community (mostly the same group of geniuses that were at the top of the Manhattan Project) got together and -- probably at the behest of of the US government -- decided physics was becoming too dangerous if it continued down the path that it was on. So, as my spitball theory goes, they intentionally beached the entire enterprise on the shoals of string theory and quantized gravity and all the stuff Weinstein talks about everywhere he goes -- the "dogs that won't hunt" that are also "the only game in town." The very theories that have, in the real world, run physics aground. So let's come back to Andreessen's point here: they classified entire branches of physics and took them out of the research community, while real physics went off on a wild goose chase that has yielded precious few demonstrable results in the past half century or so. The effect is that the physics community has been off the scent for so long that anyone old enough to have held the knowledge that was shoved back into Pandora's proverbial box through extreme secrecy measures is now dead. And their taking of that knowledge to the grave may well be a critical part of the secrecy effort. Dead physicists tell no tales. I have this eerie sense that we scared ourselves shitless with certain discoveries (likely knowledge that followed from nuclear physics, which is itself still highly protected and curtailed) and decided that the only way to stop our headlong rush into world-ending catastrophe was to literally bury the knowledge and wait until everyone who had it died off. The government looks, at least to me, to have cauterized a destructive branch in the scientific timeline like they were the Time Variance Authority from Marvel comics. 80 years of claimed zero-progress in reverse-engineering alleged crashed or recovered UAPs. 40+ years of dead-ended physics. Only two or three major AI companies, one of which is now in a fight to the death with the Department of War. And the rumors that AI has "plateaued" or even "dead-ended" in its progress that keep springing up has potential echoes in the AI world of physics being diverted into String Theory. I'm not a mathematician or a physicist. I can't examine all the deeper particulars because I have neither the knowledge or the training. I only have surface level pattern recognition, and that tells me it all feels connected. The problem for the gatekeepers is that you can't bury knowledge that has been discovered once indefinitely. It's certain that all of this will be figured out again. And as Weinstein pointed out about a couple of non-physicists who figured out how to piece together nuclear weapons based on declassified information and publicly available knowledge, it IS happening. But it seems that at least on the individual basis, those green shoots are being pruned. Weinstein asks why none of the people who funded his education are "interested" in his Grand Unifying Theory. Weinstein is too well-known and too well-respected to just be taken out of play. They can't buy him off. They can't make him disappear without drawing more attention. So maybe they just hope that Geometric Unity will die on its own. Maybe they are behind the attacks on GU as something totally unserious. Maybe they have found a way to make other members of the physics community willing to look away. So, my question about this larger hypothetical operation to stop dangerous science and math is this: was it really just a massive kicking of the can down the road. Did they hoped it would buy us time? And if so, to what end? What are they waiting for? Can this game really be played forever? Maybe they think it can. Maybe they have an ongoing directive to keep suppressing this knowledge for as long as possible, and perhaps there's some secret core group whose job is to be the perpetual gatekeepers of potentially civilization-ending secrets. Maybe the Epstein connection to all of this was precisely because he was part of the operation to discover who was doing forbidden work and assess their progress. Maybe that's why, when he met Weinstein, he knew so much about GU. It's impossible to say with any certainty, but as a theory, it does have some real explanatory power. I find myself thinking of the fictional Brothers of the Cruciform Sword in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade -- a small, ancient, secret society whose job it was to keep tabs on people looking for the Holy Grail and stop them, so it doesn't fall into the wrong hands. Are we following the same track here? Could this, as crazy as it sounds, be the missing connective tissue in this mystery?

Steve Skojec

13,976 次观看 • 5 个月前

Cole Caufield’s first moments in the NHL: “When I got called up at the end of the 2021 regular season, I didn’t even think I was going to play. We were on a road trip out west, and I was just along for the ride. Healthy scratch. Get acclimated. Practice with the guys. And man, those were some guys. Shea Weber. Carey Price. Eric Staal. Corey Perry. Tyler Toffoli. I was coming into that room probably looking like the water boy. I couldn’t have been more starstruck. We’re at a morning skate in Calgary, and it was a bag skate, of course. I’m thinking I’m going back to the hotel for a nice nap, throw on the suit, sit up in the press box and have a Gatorade. We’re on the bus and somebody tells me, ‘Hey, you’re playing tonight.’ I thought they were joking. I said, ‘Oh my God, we just bag skated. I’m toast.’ I called my parents and my brother, and that was an awesome moment, just them getting choked up and saying, ‘We’ll be watching you on TV.’ That was the hardest nap of my life. I couldn’t even sit still. I mean…. I’m somebody who started skating in diapers. Me and my brother used to watch the NHL and be playing carpet hockey in full gear in the living room, pretending that we were those guys. I demanded to wear my hockey socks and everything. So yeah, that night in Calgary was pretty much the greatest 15 minutes and even plus-minus of my life. I thought that was probably going to be it — a couple games at the end of the season. But we had a few injuries, and somehow I ended up in the playoff lineup. Everything went so fast that I don’t even think I had time to be nervous. I’ll never forget, I was just so happy to be there and so amped up that we were at a morning practice at the start of Round 2 against Winnipeg, and we’re just supposed to be warming up the goalies, right? Nice and easy. We’re in the shootout line, and I get up to the front, and I had this goosebumps moment where I guess it finally sunk in like, ‘You’re a Montréal Canadien. You’re coming down on Carey Price right now. This is unbelievable.’ I came flying down like a bat out of hell at a freaking morning practice after Game 2 of a playoff series — guys are literally still yawning, stretching — and I absolutely rip one on net. As soon as I let it go, I thought, Oh s***. I smoked Carey right in the face. The sound was insane. Everybody stopped. You could have heard a pin drop in there. All I could think was, Is Shea looking at me? Is he going to kill me? I wanted to dig a hole in the ice and hide. Thank God, it was Carey Price. He shook it off like it was nothing, and he’s the chillest guy ever, so he wasn’t even mad at me. But then I skated back to the line and one of our vets just looked at me and said…. ‘Hey kid?’ ‘Yeah?’ ‘Don’t ever f****** do that again.’ Noted. Noted. I think I went five-hole on Carey for the next two months. The puck never left the ice.” Cole Caufield | Canadiens Montréal

Cole Caufield’s first moments in the NHL: “When I got called up at the end of the 2021 regular season, I didn’t even think I was going to play. We were on a road trip out west, and I was just along for the ride. Healthy scratch. Get acclimated. Practice with the guys. And man, those were some guys. Shea Weber. Carey Price. Eric Staal. Corey Perry. Tyler Toffoli. I was coming into that room probably looking like the water boy. I couldn’t have been more starstruck. We’re at a morning skate in Calgary, and it was a bag skate, of course. I’m thinking I’m going back to the hotel for a nice nap, throw on the suit, sit up in the press box and have a Gatorade. We’re on the bus and somebody tells me, ‘Hey, you’re playing tonight.’ I thought they were joking. I said, ‘Oh my God, we just bag skated. I’m toast.’ I called my parents and my brother, and that was an awesome moment, just them getting choked up and saying, ‘We’ll be watching you on TV.’ That was the hardest nap of my life. I couldn’t even sit still. I mean…. I’m somebody who started skating in diapers. Me and my brother used to watch the NHL and be playing carpet hockey in full gear in the living room, pretending that we were those guys. I demanded to wear my hockey socks and everything. So yeah, that night in Calgary was pretty much the greatest 15 minutes and even plus-minus of my life. I thought that was probably going to be it — a couple games at the end of the season. But we had a few injuries, and somehow I ended up in the playoff lineup. Everything went so fast that I don’t even think I had time to be nervous. I’ll never forget, I was just so happy to be there and so amped up that we were at a morning practice at the start of Round 2 against Winnipeg, and we’re just supposed to be warming up the goalies, right? Nice and easy. We’re in the shootout line, and I get up to the front, and I had this goosebumps moment where I guess it finally sunk in like, ‘You’re a Montréal Canadien. You’re coming down on Carey Price right now. This is unbelievable.’ I came flying down like a bat out of hell at a freaking morning practice after Game 2 of a playoff series — guys are literally still yawning, stretching — and I absolutely rip one on net. As soon as I let it go, I thought, Oh s*. I smoked Carey right in the face. The sound was insane. Everybody stopped. You could have heard a pin drop in there. All I could think was, Is Shea looking at me? Is he going to kill me? I wanted to dig a hole in the ice and hide. Thank God, it was Carey Price. He shook it off like it was nothing, and he’s the chillest guy ever, so he wasn’t even mad at me. But then I skated back to the line and one of our vets just looked at me and said…. ‘Hey kid?’ ‘Yeah?’ ‘Don’t ever f**** do that again.’ Noted. Noted. I think I went five-hole on Carey for the next two months. The puck never left the ice.” Cole Caufield | Canadiens Montréal

The Players’ Tribune

36,343 次观看 • 3 个月前

THE TRUTH ABOUT OCTOBER 7TH: Reports confirm that Netanyahu, the Mossad and the IDF deliberately allowed the October 7th attack by Hamas to take place. They knew one year in advance of the attack and did nothing to stop it. They deliberately stood down during the attack allowing many more innocent Israelis to be slaughtered in order to get domestic and international support for war in Gaza and Iran. HOW DID OCTOBER 7TH HAPPEN? On October 7th, Hamas was able to carry out its shocking terror attack against Israel, despite Israel’s intelligence, military and security apparatus commonly considered the best in the world. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself tweeted and quickly deleted a statement denying any foreknowledge of the October 7th attack. “Under no circumstances and at no stage was Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of war intentions on the part of Hamas" the tweet said, before it was promptly deleted. Why did Netanyahu’s team delete that tweet? Because in fact he did have intelligence that there would be an attack by Hamas and tried to hide this from the world. Foreign security services, Israeli security services and the Israeli public all knew that Hamas was planning a violent, cross-border incursion where they would attempt to over-run and attack the kibbutz communities in southern Israel and take prisoners back to Gaza. And they also knew when. But it happened anyway. Why? Ten days before the attack, and then again three days before the attack, Egypt intelligence officials passed “repeated warnings” to the highest levels of Israel’s government. In one of these warnings, Egypts premiere intelligence minister General Abbas Kamel personally called Netanyahu and warned that Hamas was about to do “something unusual, a terrible operation.” Unnamed Egyptian officials told YNET News that they were shocked by Netanyahu’s “indifference to the news.” But Israel didn’t have to trust or believe Egypt, because actually, most of the warnings of the October 7th attack came from Israeli civilians and the Israeli military itself. The civilians and soldiers who brought these emergency warnings to the military were ignored and in some cases, strangely enough, threatened with legal action. In 2022, the IDF, through confidential sources, or spies, in Gaza, actually obtained the detailed Hamas Al Aqsa Flood attack plans. Codenamed “Jericho Wall” by Israel, the excursion plan called for a barrage of rockets to begin the attack and for gunmen to pour into Israel en masse via para-gliders, on motorcycles and on foot and take hostages back into Gaza, all of which happened on October 7th. Hamas followed the blueprint that Israel already had with shocking precision. So Israel had the attack blueprints, but were they taken seriously by the IDF? Yes, the plans were diligently studied. A presentation on the planned attack was given to senior officers in the IDF’S Gaza division. The presentation concluded with this sentence: “This invasion constitutes the gravest threat that IDF forces are facing in the defense of Israel” So in response to this, did Israel’s security establishment beef up and enhance their surveillance of Hamas militants on the other side of the border? No, stunningly, they actually did the exact opposite. They decided to entirely stop monitoring Hamas’s handheld radio traffic. Because they saw it “as a waste of effort” even though during that same time in 2022, Israelis living in the kibbutz communities near the Gaza border, most of whom have some type of military training due to Israel’s mandatory IDF service laws, were, according to Israeli media, picking up clear evidence that Hamas was “practicing the breaching of the fence and conquering kibbutzim and seizing hostages and destroying everything in their path.” Then, In April 2023, 6 months before the attack, again according to Israeli media, the IDF “restricted the ability” of Israelis living near the border “to monitor Hamas’ wireless traffic.” In September 2023, less than a month before the attack, the head of the IDF’s “Devil’s Advocate” intelligence unit, which challenges prevailing narratives within Israel’s military, twice alerted senior decision-makers in both the army and political spheres about Hamas’ plans for a large-scale cross-border military operation. He reiterated these warnings in person at Intelligence Branch strategic assessment sessions on September 26th and 27th. Just days before the attack. So it was clear to everyone that Hamas wasn’t only planning to do something horrible, but it was also clear what that horrible and evil thing was. According to a female IDF soldier who spoke to Israel’s channel 12 news program, she was constantly trying to warn her superiors about the gravity of Hamas training exercises. She was threatened with legal action. “We were told that if we continue to harass on this issue, you will stand trial.” So, Egypt knew, the Israeli military knew, and the Israeli civilians knew. Yet, two days before October 7th, the Israeli military took two entire commando brigades, or around 100 soldiers, away from the the soon to be breached locations of the Gaza border and sent them to the other side of the country, to the West Bank village of Huwara despite no Hamas presence being in Huwara and despite there being giant Israeli dance parties taking place right along the same border fence where violent, escalating and obvious Hamas drills of breaching and kidnapping were taking place. According to Israeli media reports, Lt. Col. Sahar Fogel, an operations officer at the IDF’s Gaza Division, opposed the approval of the Nova Party based on the last minute nature of its event application and the intensifying Hamas drills at the border and because if something were to happen, more soldiers were on holiday. It was the Jewish holiday of Sukkot. The Lt. Col. explained his opposition to the party’s approval to his superiors. He was instructed to allow the event. Israeli Newspaper Haaretz reported that other Gaza division officers privately “told of irregular conduct and pressure surrounding the approval of the party.” In February 2024, Elkana Federman, the head of security for the Nova festival gave an interview to Israel’s Channel 14 where he made a statement that hasn’t been reported on by any American media. “I had a guard at the festival who had served in the Re’im Division [near Gaza border], and a week before the festival he sent me a voice message, basically warning me, saying, ‘Elkana, something is going to happen over Sukkot. I just wanted to let you know, there are a lot of warnings, I passed the voice message on to local IDF officials and they told me everything was all right.” The Hamas attacks were violent and brutal. They have been likened to tragic events such as September 11th and the Holocaust, so it comes as a surprise that Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his Likud party have at times described the attacks as somewhat of a political gift. Nissim Vaturi, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party in the Knesset, referred to the attack as sort of gift from God because they are being used to justify the current ongoing war, stating: “We were meant to fight this war against Hamas, as is happening now, and luckily for us it came from the heavens.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained that Israel didn’t have domestic or international support to invade or destroy Gaza. He said the October 7th Hamas attack solved both of those problems for him, stating “We couldn’t get the domestic consensus to make a definitive solution to the problem of Hamas. That is, no one would agree across the Israeli public to go in and basically destroy Hamas, go throughout Gaza and destroy Hamas. We didn’t have the international consensus either; nobody would understand why we are doing it. Both conditions were created because of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th.” Did the Israeli military, the Israeli intelligence community, and the political leadership of Israel allow this ghastly attack to happen to justify wiping out the population of Gaza? The evidence proves, yes. WHERE WAS THE IDF? During the October 7th attacks what did the Israeli military do? For hours they did nothing, it was a deliberate military stand down order. It's important to remember that Israel is just slightly bigger than the size of the state of New Jersey. But for some reason, once the Hamas attacks began, the time it took the Israeli army and rescue teams to arrive, fight and rescue Israelis at the different kibbutz communities and sites being attacked took anywhere from 4 hours to more than 20 hours. The New York Times has reported: “Thousands of soldiers were less than 40 minutes from the towns that were under attack.” A video that Israeli media obtained from an army helicopter, corroborated by Israeli survivors, prove that there were more than 500 Israeli soldiers directly outside of the Kibbutz entrance, fully armed, with Humvees and tanks but it took 10 hours for those soldiers to show up. Avital, a survivor of the Be’eri attack, described to Haaretz: “500 soldiers stood outside, with equipment and vehicles. I remember yelling at them, ‘We’re being slaughtered, come in, save us and no one said anything.” So why did it take so long for help to arrive? Haaretz reported: “At 7 A.M., the party organizers called Lt. Col. Elad Zandani, the man tasked with approving the festival and told him that terrorists were shooting the partygoers. He suggested that they fend for themselves. The first IDF forces arrived at the party scene at 3 P.M., that’s an 8 hour response time for one of the most efficient, capable and well militarized security forces in the world operating in a country the size of New Jersey with their Gaza division only a few miles away. And what makes this even more strange? Around 4 hours into the Hamas assault, at 10:46AM, Israel was already launching operations and bombing targets inside of Gaza. So, if Israel could begin an offensive attack into Gaza within 4 hours, why did it take more than 6 hours and in most cases more than 10 hours and even 20 hours in some cases to mobilize inside of their own country to stop the ongoing attack and to defend the lives of their own people? The New York Times quoted Ben Zion, an Israeli military reservist who spoke to Israeli media. He said his unit voluntarily left central Israel in a convoy at 1:30PM, they got together and left for the south on their own. He expected to see the roads packed with soldiers and equipment and armored vehicles heading south. “The roads were empty!” he recalled in an interview. Roughly seven hours into the fighting, he turned to the reservist next to him and asked: “Where’s the IDF?” The brutal and deadly Hamas terrorist attack of October 7th is so central to justifying Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza that Israel is actually outlawing questioning the October 7th government narrative. Israelis who spread information counter to the October 7th government narrative, which the Israeli Knesset calls “falsehoods and propaganda” could face up to 5 years in prison. Between the abundance of concrete evidence that suggests Israeli military allowed October 7th to happen by ignoring dozens of reliable and specific warnings, threatening soldiers with legal actions who tried to warn their military superiors and taking troops away from the area of the Gaza border that was attacked and now evidence that suggests there was some type of military stand down order in place on October 7th, it is important to ask, what was October 7th and what kind of war is the United States supporting? WHAT IS THE HANNIBAL DIRECTIVE? Images and videos of burnt cars, blacked and charred bodies and incinerated homes in southern Israel were plastered on every phone screen and television after the October 7th Hamas attack. The images and videos were used by the Israeli government to justify the military’s heavy handed tactics in their ongoing war against Hamas, But were all the images and videos actually the result of the Hamas attack? Innocent Israeli civilians were brutally killed by Hamas on October 7th, but there is evidence that proves the IDF killed their own Israeli citizens in what is known as the Hannibal Directive. To understand what the Israeli military did to their own civilians on October 7th, you have to understand the political aspirations of Hamas and what the goal of taking hostages is, it is political leverage. There are over 10,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails. 3,000 of whom haven’t been to trial or charged with a crime. When militant groups manage to capture Israeli civilians or soldiers it gives them leverage to force a prisoner swap and get some of their people out of Israeli prison. For example, in 1986, Hamas managed to kidnap 3 Israeli soldiers and bring them to Gaza. They demanded 1,150 Palestinian prisoners in return for these soldiers. After this, the military drafted a secret field order to prevent future kidnappings. It was called the "Hannibal Directive." The directive gets its name from the Carthaginian general who chose to poison himself rather than allow himself to be captured alive by the romans. In 2003, strangely enough on October 7th 2003, three Israeli soldiers were taken hostage and brought into Lebanon. Following the activation of the Hannibal Directive, IDF attack helicopters fired indiscriminately on 26 vehicles thus ensuring the death of their own soldiers and therefore robbing Lebanese militants of the ability to demand Israel make concessions. The Last known application of the Hannibal Directive was in 2014. In Rafah. Hamas fighters managed to capture an Israeli soldier, Lt. Hadar Goldin. Instead of allowing the lieutenant to be used as leverage by Hamas, the military killed him. Dropping bombs, missiles and shells on the area he was being held, killing the soldier and also over 100 Palestinian civilians. The scale of the Hannibal Directive on October 7th was entirely different from those of the past. A retired Israeli air force general, Nof Erez, described it during a podcast with Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper saying “The Hannibal Directive was apparently applied at a certain stage, because at the moment they understand there is a kidnapping, they immediately say, ‘Guys, this is Hannibal.’ But the Hannibal we trained for all of the last twenty years, is for a vehicle we know at what point of the fence it enters, on what side it drives, and maybe even on which road it drives. This was a Mass Hannibal.” We know the Hannibal Directive means to kill your own, so what does “mass Hannibal” mean? A large mainstream Israeli media outlet reported: “In the week after Black Shabbat, October 7th, soldiers of elite units, at the initiative of the Southern Command, checked about 70 vehicles that remained in the area between the Otaf settlements and the Gaza Strip. These are vehicles that did not reach Gaza, because on the way they were shot by a combat helicopter, an anti-tank missile or a tank, and at least in some cases everyone in the vehicle was killed.” 70 vehicles and in some cases, everyone in the vehicle was killed. These are Israelis killed by Israel. Again, only reported on in the Israeli media. Tuval Escapa, is a member of the security team for Kibbutz Be’eri. He set up a hotline so kibbutz residents could communicate with the Israeli army. He told Haaretz that “the commanders in the field made difficult decisions, including shelling houses on their occupants” in order to eliminate would-be hostages as well the terrorists. They shelled entire houses. Do we hear this in the American mainstream media? That the Israeli military targeted and destroyed over 70 cars with hellfire missiles that were filled with Israelis and that they decimated entire Israeli homes with tank shells? A report in Haaretz on October 20th notes that the Israeli military also carried out an airstrike on their own military base, the Erez crossing. That base was filled with Israeli Civil Administration officers and soldiers at the time. An Israeli woman named Yasmin Porat gave an interview with Israel Radio that the military “undoubtedly” killed numerous Israeli hostages during gun battles with Hamas militants. IDF General Barak Hiram, prevented hundreds of troops from entering Kibbutz Be’eri for hours on October 7th, when he finally allowed the IDF to go in, he ordered tanks to fire on multiple homes. The tank shells killed at least 12 Israeli hostages and 3 children. Recently the UN published an investigation confirming several of these facts, namely, that the IDF had in fact activated the Hannibal Directive on October 7th stating “The Commission is aware of allegations that Israeli Special Forces used the “Hannibal Directive” to prevent the capture of Israeli civilians and their transfer to Gaza, even at the cost of killing them" The Commission documented one statement by an ISF tank crew, confirming that the crew had applied the Hannibal Directive. The Israeli military, Israeli civilians and the United Nations all admit to the IDF purposely killing their own on October 7th. How many? It’s hard to know the exact number, but the imagery of charred bodies and incinerated cars and homes are still being used to this day to manufacture consent and support for Israel’s ongoing assault of the Gaza Strip, where more than 47,000 Palestinians have been killed including 15,000 innocent children. ISRAEL'S FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR HAMAS: Israel and Netanyahu helped funnel over $1 Billion dollars to Hamas in order to keep Palestine from being recognized as a State. It was Netanyahu and Israel who helped create Hamas thinking that they could control them and would be able to use Hamas as an excuse for their continued military operations and occupation in Gaza. ISRAEL'S SECRET NUCLEAR WEAPONS: The front lines of the war between Israel and Hamas are expanding and moving beyond Gaza. Yemen’s Houthis intensified their involvement, going from simply attacking Israeli bound cargo ships to now navigating an armed drone over 1,200 miles, evading Israel’s Iron Dome defense system and managed to strike inside Tel Aviv causing a massive explosions. In addition to their ongoing war in Gaza, Israel has attacked or been attacked by Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to promise Israel unconditional and limitless support. But has anyone even asked if this support is LEGAL? According to the 1976 Symington and Glenn Amendments of the Armed Foreign Assistance Act, which is now a part of the Arms Export Control Act, the United States cannot give foreign aid, whether that’s economic or military, to any nuclear armed state that is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, or the NPT, but the United States gives billions of dollars every year to Israel and according to all international arms organizations, Israel has anywhere from 90 to 400 nuclear warheads and Israel has not signed the NPT. So how does this legally happen? The United States and Israel simply pretend Israel does not have nuclear weapons, literally, that’s what’s done. It is called “Nuclear Ambiguity.” This nuclear ambiguity, which allows Israel to continue to receive billions from the U.S. and also operate and maintain their nuclear arsenal with absolutely no international oversight and zero regulation, is maintained and preserved through the threat of force. Due to a previously Top Secret gag order, all U.S. government agency employees and contractors are forbidden from discussing Israel’s nuclear weapons program. Even insinuating or mentioning information that’s already in the public domain is forbidden for all federal employees and contractors. It sounds hard to believe but let’s give an example: James Doyle used to work at Los Alamos National Laboratory as a nuclear security specialist. He violated this gag order. Doyle wrote an academic article arguing that Nuclear weapons do not do a good job at deterring countries from attacking one another, he wrote: “Nuclear weapons did not deter Egypt and Syria from attacking Israel in 1973, Argentina from attacking British territory in 1982 or Iraq from attacking Israel during the 1991 Gulf War.” A clear reference to Israel’s nuclear weapons. Doyle’s security clearance was promptly withdrawn, his home was raided, his computers were seized and he was fired from the Department of Energy. So apparently that’s how it works. In 2018, The New Yorker published a stunning report in which they discuss another way Israel’s nuclear ambiguity is enforced: secret presidential letters. According to former U.S. officials and former Israeli officials, every recent US administration since Clinton in 1993 has performed the same ritual as it came into office. They all agreed to undermine U.S. law by signing secret letters, brought to them by hand by their Israeli counterparts stipulating that they’ll never acknowledge what everyone knows: that Israel indeed has nuclear weapons. The National Archives is currently refusing to release the letters, arguing that even confirming their existence would violate the secrecy pact. So there’s a gag order that stops all federal employees and contractors from simply acknowledging Israel’s nuclear weapons and U.S. presidents sign secret letters promising not to acknowledge or pressure Israel to do anything relating to their proliferation status. That means asking questions like these are entirely off limits enforced by the threat of government violence or law fare. But all of this information leads to a series of questions: Where does Israel dispose of the toxic waste its program generates? Are Israel’s nuclear weapons ever used to coerce the U.S. into making adverse policy decisions? How about our allies? Besides apartheid South Africa, has Israel offered any of its nuclear weapons for sale to other foreign countries? To U.S. adversaries? Has Israel mounted nuclear weapons onto its German supplied Dolphin class submarines? Or their American supplied F-35 jets? No questions are allowed and what is the cost, the dollar amount, for Americans, of this “nuclear ambiguity” policy? To be exact, almost $240 billion dollars of military and economic aid has gone from the U.S. taxpayer since the passing of the Symington and Glenn Amendments. That’s far more than the United States spent rebuilding Europe under the Marshall Plan. And none of that quarter of a trillion dollars should have been allowed under U.S. law. That’s the price of keeping Israel’s secret. A quarter trillion and yet where is the International Atomic Energy Agency and international nuclear inspectors? The same ones who monitor every other nuclear armed country in the world? DOES ISRAEL PERSECUTE CHRISTIANS? Before the war, Israel’s Christian minority were already being targeted with dispossession and violence. In Jerusalem’s Old City, narrow streets line the ancient neighborhood and Jewish Israeli civilians spitting on and attacking Christian clergy members is commonplace in Israel. Evidence of this shows a video from a few days before October 7th of Christians in the Old City of Jerusalem carrying a cross while a group of Orthodox Jewish Israelis many of them children walk by and spit at the Christians. It’s become mainstream to believe Christians don’t belong in Israel and only Jewish people do. A few years ago, the mission, the Virgin Mary’s place of death, was attacked and vandalized by Israelis. The graffiti on the ancient walls read “Death to heretical Christians, the enemies of Israel,” and “May his name and memory be obliterated,” in reference to Jesus. According to Haaretz, at a Jewish school, the leader of an anti-assimilation group Bentzi Gopstien told students that it’s quote “mitzvah” or a “good deed” to burn and destroy Christian churches. Should Americans, especially Christian Americans be allowing billions of their tax dollars to be used to ethnically cleanse, attack and bomb Holy sites and Christian civilians? What has happened since Israel has launched its war against Hamas? Israel has displaced 2.4 million Palestinians in Gaza, 80% of the buildings and homes have been reduced to rubble, at least 45,000 Palestinians have been killed with 50% being women and children. In America, we’re told we should prioritize sending billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars to Israel over dealing with our own issues here at home because Israel needs to be able defend itself. Well, it seems like what initially appeared as a defensive war, is appearing more like an offensive war with the expansionist goal of the permanent military occupation of the Gaza Strip. Did the Israeli military, the Israeli intelligence community, and the political leadership of Israel allow this terrible attack to happen to justify wiping out the population of Gaza, a genocide justified by an attack that Israel could have stopped had they wanted to.

THE TRUTH ABOUT OCTOBER 7TH: Reports confirm that Netanyahu, the Mossad and the IDF deliberately allowed the October 7th attack by Hamas to take place. They knew one year in advance of the attack and did nothing to stop it. They deliberately stood down during the attack allowing many more innocent Israelis to be slaughtered in order to get domestic and international support for war in Gaza and Iran. HOW DID OCTOBER 7TH HAPPEN? On October 7th, Hamas was able to carry out its shocking terror attack against Israel, despite Israel’s intelligence, military and security apparatus commonly considered the best in the world. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself tweeted and quickly deleted a statement denying any foreknowledge of the October 7th attack. “Under no circumstances and at no stage was Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of war intentions on the part of Hamas" the tweet said, before it was promptly deleted. Why did Netanyahu’s team delete that tweet? Because in fact he did have intelligence that there would be an attack by Hamas and tried to hide this from the world. Foreign security services, Israeli security services and the Israeli public all knew that Hamas was planning a violent, cross-border incursion where they would attempt to over-run and attack the kibbutz communities in southern Israel and take prisoners back to Gaza. And they also knew when. But it happened anyway. Why? Ten days before the attack, and then again three days before the attack, Egypt intelligence officials passed “repeated warnings” to the highest levels of Israel’s government. In one of these warnings, Egypts premiere intelligence minister General Abbas Kamel personally called Netanyahu and warned that Hamas was about to do “something unusual, a terrible operation.” Unnamed Egyptian officials told YNET News that they were shocked by Netanyahu’s “indifference to the news.” But Israel didn’t have to trust or believe Egypt, because actually, most of the warnings of the October 7th attack came from Israeli civilians and the Israeli military itself. The civilians and soldiers who brought these emergency warnings to the military were ignored and in some cases, strangely enough, threatened with legal action. In 2022, the IDF, through confidential sources, or spies, in Gaza, actually obtained the detailed Hamas Al Aqsa Flood attack plans. Codenamed “Jericho Wall” by Israel, the excursion plan called for a barrage of rockets to begin the attack and for gunmen to pour into Israel en masse via para-gliders, on motorcycles and on foot and take hostages back into Gaza, all of which happened on October 7th. Hamas followed the blueprint that Israel already had with shocking precision. So Israel had the attack blueprints, but were they taken seriously by the IDF? Yes, the plans were diligently studied. A presentation on the planned attack was given to senior officers in the IDF’S Gaza division. The presentation concluded with this sentence: “This invasion constitutes the gravest threat that IDF forces are facing in the defense of Israel” So in response to this, did Israel’s security establishment beef up and enhance their surveillance of Hamas militants on the other side of the border? No, stunningly, they actually did the exact opposite. They decided to entirely stop monitoring Hamas’s handheld radio traffic. Because they saw it “as a waste of effort” even though during that same time in 2022, Israelis living in the kibbutz communities near the Gaza border, most of whom have some type of military training due to Israel’s mandatory IDF service laws, were, according to Israeli media, picking up clear evidence that Hamas was “practicing the breaching of the fence and conquering kibbutzim and seizing hostages and destroying everything in their path.” Then, In April 2023, 6 months before the attack, again according to Israeli media, the IDF “restricted the ability” of Israelis living near the border “to monitor Hamas’ wireless traffic.” In September 2023, less than a month before the attack, the head of the IDF’s “Devil’s Advocate” intelligence unit, which challenges prevailing narratives within Israel’s military, twice alerted senior decision-makers in both the army and political spheres about Hamas’ plans for a large-scale cross-border military operation. He reiterated these warnings in person at Intelligence Branch strategic assessment sessions on September 26th and 27th. Just days before the attack. So it was clear to everyone that Hamas wasn’t only planning to do something horrible, but it was also clear what that horrible and evil thing was. According to a female IDF soldier who spoke to Israel’s channel 12 news program, she was constantly trying to warn her superiors about the gravity of Hamas training exercises. She was threatened with legal action. “We were told that if we continue to harass on this issue, you will stand trial.” So, Egypt knew, the Israeli military knew, and the Israeli civilians knew. Yet, two days before October 7th, the Israeli military took two entire commando brigades, or around 100 soldiers, away from the the soon to be breached locations of the Gaza border and sent them to the other side of the country, to the West Bank village of Huwara despite no Hamas presence being in Huwara and despite there being giant Israeli dance parties taking place right along the same border fence where violent, escalating and obvious Hamas drills of breaching and kidnapping were taking place. According to Israeli media reports, Lt. Col. Sahar Fogel, an operations officer at the IDF’s Gaza Division, opposed the approval of the Nova Party based on the last minute nature of its event application and the intensifying Hamas drills at the border and because if something were to happen, more soldiers were on holiday. It was the Jewish holiday of Sukkot. The Lt. Col. explained his opposition to the party’s approval to his superiors. He was instructed to allow the event. Israeli Newspaper Haaretz reported that other Gaza division officers privately “told of irregular conduct and pressure surrounding the approval of the party.” In February 2024, Elkana Federman, the head of security for the Nova festival gave an interview to Israel’s Channel 14 where he made a statement that hasn’t been reported on by any American media. “I had a guard at the festival who had served in the Re’im Division [near Gaza border], and a week before the festival he sent me a voice message, basically warning me, saying, ‘Elkana, something is going to happen over Sukkot. I just wanted to let you know, there are a lot of warnings, I passed the voice message on to local IDF officials and they told me everything was all right.” The Hamas attacks were violent and brutal. They have been likened to tragic events such as September 11th and the Holocaust, so it comes as a surprise that Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his Likud party have at times described the attacks as somewhat of a political gift. Nissim Vaturi, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party in the Knesset, referred to the attack as sort of gift from God because they are being used to justify the current ongoing war, stating: “We were meant to fight this war against Hamas, as is happening now, and luckily for us it came from the heavens.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained that Israel didn’t have domestic or international support to invade or destroy Gaza. He said the October 7th Hamas attack solved both of those problems for him, stating “We couldn’t get the domestic consensus to make a definitive solution to the problem of Hamas. That is, no one would agree across the Israeli public to go in and basically destroy Hamas, go throughout Gaza and destroy Hamas. We didn’t have the international consensus either; nobody would understand why we are doing it. Both conditions were created because of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th.” Did the Israeli military, the Israeli intelligence community, and the political leadership of Israel allow this ghastly attack to happen to justify wiping out the population of Gaza? The evidence proves, yes. WHERE WAS THE IDF? During the October 7th attacks what did the Israeli military do? For hours they did nothing, it was a deliberate military stand down order. It's important to remember that Israel is just slightly bigger than the size of the state of New Jersey. But for some reason, once the Hamas attacks began, the time it took the Israeli army and rescue teams to arrive, fight and rescue Israelis at the different kibbutz communities and sites being attacked took anywhere from 4 hours to more than 20 hours. The New York Times has reported: “Thousands of soldiers were less than 40 minutes from the towns that were under attack.” A video that Israeli media obtained from an army helicopter, corroborated by Israeli survivors, prove that there were more than 500 Israeli soldiers directly outside of the Kibbutz entrance, fully armed, with Humvees and tanks but it took 10 hours for those soldiers to show up. Avital, a survivor of the Be’eri attack, described to Haaretz: “500 soldiers stood outside, with equipment and vehicles. I remember yelling at them, ‘We’re being slaughtered, come in, save us and no one said anything.” So why did it take so long for help to arrive? Haaretz reported: “At 7 A.M., the party organizers called Lt. Col. Elad Zandani, the man tasked with approving the festival and told him that terrorists were shooting the partygoers. He suggested that they fend for themselves. The first IDF forces arrived at the party scene at 3 P.M., that’s an 8 hour response time for one of the most efficient, capable and well militarized security forces in the world operating in a country the size of New Jersey with their Gaza division only a few miles away. And what makes this even more strange? Around 4 hours into the Hamas assault, at 10:46AM, Israel was already launching operations and bombing targets inside of Gaza. So, if Israel could begin an offensive attack into Gaza within 4 hours, why did it take more than 6 hours and in most cases more than 10 hours and even 20 hours in some cases to mobilize inside of their own country to stop the ongoing attack and to defend the lives of their own people? The New York Times quoted Ben Zion, an Israeli military reservist who spoke to Israeli media. He said his unit voluntarily left central Israel in a convoy at 1:30PM, they got together and left for the south on their own. He expected to see the roads packed with soldiers and equipment and armored vehicles heading south. “The roads were empty!” he recalled in an interview. Roughly seven hours into the fighting, he turned to the reservist next to him and asked: “Where’s the IDF?” The brutal and deadly Hamas terrorist attack of October 7th is so central to justifying Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza that Israel is actually outlawing questioning the October 7th government narrative. Israelis who spread information counter to the October 7th government narrative, which the Israeli Knesset calls “falsehoods and propaganda” could face up to 5 years in prison. Between the abundance of concrete evidence that suggests Israeli military allowed October 7th to happen by ignoring dozens of reliable and specific warnings, threatening soldiers with legal actions who tried to warn their military superiors and taking troops away from the area of the Gaza border that was attacked and now evidence that suggests there was some type of military stand down order in place on October 7th, it is important to ask, what was October 7th and what kind of war is the United States supporting? WHAT IS THE HANNIBAL DIRECTIVE? Images and videos of burnt cars, blacked and charred bodies and incinerated homes in southern Israel were plastered on every phone screen and television after the October 7th Hamas attack. The images and videos were used by the Israeli government to justify the military’s heavy handed tactics in their ongoing war against Hamas, But were all the images and videos actually the result of the Hamas attack? Innocent Israeli civilians were brutally killed by Hamas on October 7th, but there is evidence that proves the IDF killed their own Israeli citizens in what is known as the Hannibal Directive. To understand what the Israeli military did to their own civilians on October 7th, you have to understand the political aspirations of Hamas and what the goal of taking hostages is, it is political leverage. There are over 10,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails. 3,000 of whom haven’t been to trial or charged with a crime. When militant groups manage to capture Israeli civilians or soldiers it gives them leverage to force a prisoner swap and get some of their people out of Israeli prison. For example, in 1986, Hamas managed to kidnap 3 Israeli soldiers and bring them to Gaza. They demanded 1,150 Palestinian prisoners in return for these soldiers. After this, the military drafted a secret field order to prevent future kidnappings. It was called the "Hannibal Directive." The directive gets its name from the Carthaginian general who chose to poison himself rather than allow himself to be captured alive by the romans. In 2003, strangely enough on October 7th 2003, three Israeli soldiers were taken hostage and brought into Lebanon. Following the activation of the Hannibal Directive, IDF attack helicopters fired indiscriminately on 26 vehicles thus ensuring the death of their own soldiers and therefore robbing Lebanese militants of the ability to demand Israel make concessions. The Last known application of the Hannibal Directive was in 2014. In Rafah. Hamas fighters managed to capture an Israeli soldier, Lt. Hadar Goldin. Instead of allowing the lieutenant to be used as leverage by Hamas, the military killed him. Dropping bombs, missiles and shells on the area he was being held, killing the soldier and also over 100 Palestinian civilians. The scale of the Hannibal Directive on October 7th was entirely different from those of the past. A retired Israeli air force general, Nof Erez, described it during a podcast with Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper saying “The Hannibal Directive was apparently applied at a certain stage, because at the moment they understand there is a kidnapping, they immediately say, ‘Guys, this is Hannibal.’ But the Hannibal we trained for all of the last twenty years, is for a vehicle we know at what point of the fence it enters, on what side it drives, and maybe even on which road it drives. This was a Mass Hannibal.” We know the Hannibal Directive means to kill your own, so what does “mass Hannibal” mean? A large mainstream Israeli media outlet reported: “In the week after Black Shabbat, October 7th, soldiers of elite units, at the initiative of the Southern Command, checked about 70 vehicles that remained in the area between the Otaf settlements and the Gaza Strip. These are vehicles that did not reach Gaza, because on the way they were shot by a combat helicopter, an anti-tank missile or a tank, and at least in some cases everyone in the vehicle was killed.” 70 vehicles and in some cases, everyone in the vehicle was killed. These are Israelis killed by Israel. Again, only reported on in the Israeli media. Tuval Escapa, is a member of the security team for Kibbutz Be’eri. He set up a hotline so kibbutz residents could communicate with the Israeli army. He told Haaretz that “the commanders in the field made difficult decisions, including shelling houses on their occupants” in order to eliminate would-be hostages as well the terrorists. They shelled entire houses. Do we hear this in the American mainstream media? That the Israeli military targeted and destroyed over 70 cars with hellfire missiles that were filled with Israelis and that they decimated entire Israeli homes with tank shells? A report in Haaretz on October 20th notes that the Israeli military also carried out an airstrike on their own military base, the Erez crossing. That base was filled with Israeli Civil Administration officers and soldiers at the time. An Israeli woman named Yasmin Porat gave an interview with Israel Radio that the military “undoubtedly” killed numerous Israeli hostages during gun battles with Hamas militants. IDF General Barak Hiram, prevented hundreds of troops from entering Kibbutz Be’eri for hours on October 7th, when he finally allowed the IDF to go in, he ordered tanks to fire on multiple homes. The tank shells killed at least 12 Israeli hostages and 3 children. Recently the UN published an investigation confirming several of these facts, namely, that the IDF had in fact activated the Hannibal Directive on October 7th stating “The Commission is aware of allegations that Israeli Special Forces used the “Hannibal Directive” to prevent the capture of Israeli civilians and their transfer to Gaza, even at the cost of killing them" The Commission documented one statement by an ISF tank crew, confirming that the crew had applied the Hannibal Directive. The Israeli military, Israeli civilians and the United Nations all admit to the IDF purposely killing their own on October 7th. How many? It’s hard to know the exact number, but the imagery of charred bodies and incinerated cars and homes are still being used to this day to manufacture consent and support for Israel’s ongoing assault of the Gaza Strip, where more than 47,000 Palestinians have been killed including 15,000 innocent children. ISRAEL'S FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR HAMAS: Israel and Netanyahu helped funnel over $1 Billion dollars to Hamas in order to keep Palestine from being recognized as a State. It was Netanyahu and Israel who helped create Hamas thinking that they could control them and would be able to use Hamas as an excuse for their continued military operations and occupation in Gaza. ISRAEL'S SECRET NUCLEAR WEAPONS: The front lines of the war between Israel and Hamas are expanding and moving beyond Gaza. Yemen’s Houthis intensified their involvement, going from simply attacking Israeli bound cargo ships to now navigating an armed drone over 1,200 miles, evading Israel’s Iron Dome defense system and managed to strike inside Tel Aviv causing a massive explosions. In addition to their ongoing war in Gaza, Israel has attacked or been attacked by Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to promise Israel unconditional and limitless support. But has anyone even asked if this support is LEGAL? According to the 1976 Symington and Glenn Amendments of the Armed Foreign Assistance Act, which is now a part of the Arms Export Control Act, the United States cannot give foreign aid, whether that’s economic or military, to any nuclear armed state that is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, or the NPT, but the United States gives billions of dollars every year to Israel and according to all international arms organizations, Israel has anywhere from 90 to 400 nuclear warheads and Israel has not signed the NPT. So how does this legally happen? The United States and Israel simply pretend Israel does not have nuclear weapons, literally, that’s what’s done. It is called “Nuclear Ambiguity.” This nuclear ambiguity, which allows Israel to continue to receive billions from the U.S. and also operate and maintain their nuclear arsenal with absolutely no international oversight and zero regulation, is maintained and preserved through the threat of force. Due to a previously Top Secret gag order, all U.S. government agency employees and contractors are forbidden from discussing Israel’s nuclear weapons program. Even insinuating or mentioning information that’s already in the public domain is forbidden for all federal employees and contractors. It sounds hard to believe but let’s give an example: James Doyle used to work at Los Alamos National Laboratory as a nuclear security specialist. He violated this gag order. Doyle wrote an academic article arguing that Nuclear weapons do not do a good job at deterring countries from attacking one another, he wrote: “Nuclear weapons did not deter Egypt and Syria from attacking Israel in 1973, Argentina from attacking British territory in 1982 or Iraq from attacking Israel during the 1991 Gulf War.” A clear reference to Israel’s nuclear weapons. Doyle’s security clearance was promptly withdrawn, his home was raided, his computers were seized and he was fired from the Department of Energy. So apparently that’s how it works. In 2018, The New Yorker published a stunning report in which they discuss another way Israel’s nuclear ambiguity is enforced: secret presidential letters. According to former U.S. officials and former Israeli officials, every recent US administration since Clinton in 1993 has performed the same ritual as it came into office. They all agreed to undermine U.S. law by signing secret letters, brought to them by hand by their Israeli counterparts stipulating that they’ll never acknowledge what everyone knows: that Israel indeed has nuclear weapons. The National Archives is currently refusing to release the letters, arguing that even confirming their existence would violate the secrecy pact. So there’s a gag order that stops all federal employees and contractors from simply acknowledging Israel’s nuclear weapons and U.S. presidents sign secret letters promising not to acknowledge or pressure Israel to do anything relating to their proliferation status. That means asking questions like these are entirely off limits enforced by the threat of government violence or law fare. But all of this information leads to a series of questions: Where does Israel dispose of the toxic waste its program generates? Are Israel’s nuclear weapons ever used to coerce the U.S. into making adverse policy decisions? How about our allies? Besides apartheid South Africa, has Israel offered any of its nuclear weapons for sale to other foreign countries? To U.S. adversaries? Has Israel mounted nuclear weapons onto its German supplied Dolphin class submarines? Or their American supplied F-35 jets? No questions are allowed and what is the cost, the dollar amount, for Americans, of this “nuclear ambiguity” policy? To be exact, almost $240 billion dollars of military and economic aid has gone from the U.S. taxpayer since the passing of the Symington and Glenn Amendments. That’s far more than the United States spent rebuilding Europe under the Marshall Plan. And none of that quarter of a trillion dollars should have been allowed under U.S. law. That’s the price of keeping Israel’s secret. A quarter trillion and yet where is the International Atomic Energy Agency and international nuclear inspectors? The same ones who monitor every other nuclear armed country in the world? DOES ISRAEL PERSECUTE CHRISTIANS? Before the war, Israel’s Christian minority were already being targeted with dispossession and violence. In Jerusalem’s Old City, narrow streets line the ancient neighborhood and Jewish Israeli civilians spitting on and attacking Christian clergy members is commonplace in Israel. Evidence of this shows a video from a few days before October 7th of Christians in the Old City of Jerusalem carrying a cross while a group of Orthodox Jewish Israelis many of them children walk by and spit at the Christians. It’s become mainstream to believe Christians don’t belong in Israel and only Jewish people do. A few years ago, the mission, the Virgin Mary’s place of death, was attacked and vandalized by Israelis. The graffiti on the ancient walls read “Death to heretical Christians, the enemies of Israel,” and “May his name and memory be obliterated,” in reference to Jesus. According to Haaretz, at a Jewish school, the leader of an anti-assimilation group Bentzi Gopstien told students that it’s quote “mitzvah” or a “good deed” to burn and destroy Christian churches. Should Americans, especially Christian Americans be allowing billions of their tax dollars to be used to ethnically cleanse, attack and bomb Holy sites and Christian civilians? What has happened since Israel has launched its war against Hamas? Israel has displaced 2.4 million Palestinians in Gaza, 80% of the buildings and homes have been reduced to rubble, at least 45,000 Palestinians have been killed with 50% being women and children. In America, we’re told we should prioritize sending billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars to Israel over dealing with our own issues here at home because Israel needs to be able defend itself. Well, it seems like what initially appeared as a defensive war, is appearing more like an offensive war with the expansionist goal of the permanent military occupation of the Gaza Strip. Did the Israeli military, the Israeli intelligence community, and the political leadership of Israel allow this terrible attack to happen to justify wiping out the population of Gaza, a genocide justified by an attack that Israel could have stopped had they wanted to.

Truth Justice ™

603,047 次观看 • 1 年前

//The Wire//1800Z March 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES TEXAS. GULF WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS IRANIAN FORCES STRIKE AMERICAN BASES AND OIL FIELDS. MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN IN FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS. QATAR SHOOTS DOWN TWO IRANIAN FIGHTERS OVER PERSIAN GULF.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The Gulf War continues to expand, with nearly every nation throughout the region being involved as airstrikes and drone/missile attacks remain regular around the clock. Kuwait: This morning, three separate American F-15E's were shot down due to alleged friendly fire incidents after allegedly being engaged by Kuwaiti air defense systems. All six pilots and weapons officers ejected and were rescued from the desert by Kuwaiti forces. Analyst Comment: This situation was rather dicey as local Kuwaitis on the ground initially thought that the Americans parachuting down were Iranians. This is possibly due to the American parachutes from the ACES II ejection seats being in the standard colors of Orange, White, and Green (which has been a standard for a long time). Unfortunately, this also looks very similar to the colors of the Iranian flag as it's descending on a residential neighborhood. As a result, several Kuwaitis responded to the crash site with weapons drawn, until it became clear that they were Americans. After the Americans were identified, they were protected and rendered aid until they were recovered safely back to American lines. Saudi Arabia: Most of the targeting efforts by the Iranians have focused on hitting oil infrastructure. This morning, the Ras Tanura refinery was been shut down completely following Iranian drone strikes, which halts roughly 16% of Saudi Arabia's total oil production capacity. Qatar: All Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production has been halted due to Iranian strikes, and the airport in Doha remains closed at the moment. This morning Qatari forces downed two Iranian Su-24 fighters which were sortied to conduct targeting within their nation. Analyst Comment: If this report is accurate, this would be the first indication that the Iranians still maintain some limited air combat power, even though the runways at most of their airports have been cratered. UAE: In the Emirates, Iranian forces have been hitting Dubai and Abu Dhabi hard over the past two days. Power plants, oil terminals, and other energy infrastructure have been targeted, along with more military targets. The French Naval Base in Abu Dhabi was hit by Iranian munitions, and the fires have been burning overnight. Bahrain: The semi-former headquarters of the US Navy's 5th Fleet has been heavily damaged, with a significant portion of the base being completely destroyed. This morning, Iranian forces struck an American strategic oil tanker, the M/T STENA IMPERATIVE, as she was sitting in port. Cyprus: The British Airbase at Akrotiri Airport has been targeted by Iranian missiles/drones several times over the past two days, with heavy smoke being reported at the installation sporadically yesterday afternoon. Israel: Substantial targeting efforts continue by the Iranians, with many ballistic missile strikes being carried out overnight. Rocket attacks by Hezbollah cells in Lebanon continue, with the IDF conducting several airstrikes in downtown Beirut in response yesterday evening. Regarding civilian infrastructure in the Middle East, most major airports throughout the entire region are closed for flights, most notably Kuwait International, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain. Right now, the main logistical hub for citizens fleeing the region is Riyadh, however the Saudis stated overnight that King Khalid International Airport was targeted by Iran. The ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but the window for evacuations throughout much of the region is probably closed for a while. Some airlines in Dubai are attempting to re-commence evacuation flights this evening, pending any attacks on the airport. Concerning American casualties so far, four American service members have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes throughout the region. Pakistan: Attacks at the US Consulate in Karachi have escalated as rioters have began engaging the Marines inside the compound with small arms. Pakistanis have taken pot-shots from pistols at the Consulate throughout the day, and the Marine Security Detachment has been able to hold the compound so far. -HomeFront- Texas: Saturday night, a terror attack was reported at a bar in Austin, which resulted in a mass casualty event. One gunman entered Buford's Bar on 6th street, and began shooting the patrons inside, before being killed during the attack. The suspect has been identified as Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US citizen originally from Senegal. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with 14x wounded as a result of the attack. Analyst Comment: Right now most assumptions regarding this attack jump to the conclusion that this individual was one of the infamous Iranian "sleeper cell" agents that has been "activated" in response to events in the Middle East. At this moment, the evidence points to this being a lone-wolf attack as the suspect was wearing a pro-Islam sweatshirt during the attack, and underneath he was also wearing a shirt portraying the flag of Iran. Beyond these basic details, it will be crucial for the investigation to determine whether this guy was a random lone-wolf, or if there was some prior communication/coordination regarding this attack. In short, we don't know if he was communicating with Iranians or not, but he very likely conducted the attack due to events in the Middle East. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, there is a lot of confusion pertaining to the messaging by American officials regarding this war. On the one hand, the United States has stated frequently that most Iranian military infrastructure has been decimated, but on the other hand everyone can see the drones hitting targets rather effectively, so what gives? Per long-standing doctrine, Iranian military leadership has substantially expanded on the idea of delegating authority to lower and lower levels of command, so as to ensure effective combat operations in the event that decapitation strikes took out most of their senior leadership. The Iranian's have been planning for this eventuality for some time, and thus their military infrastructure can be described in a single word: Redundancy. It is this theory that is being proven somewhat correct right now, as Iranian forces have been able to not just continue strikes, but launch increasingly more significant missile barrages throughout the Middle East...after most of their military leadership has been killed. As a result, even the effective decapitation strikes during the initial phases of the war, while a great success, were still not enough to stop the effectiveness of the command and control efforts at lower levels. Even going back to the 1980's Iran has been the textbook example of how cutting off the head of the snake, won't result in the body giving up the fight as quickly as the United States would hope. How long the Iranians can keep this up, is the 64-million-dollar question, but for now, killing the entire upper echelon of Iranian military leadership won't do much to reduce combat effectiveness in the short term. The missiles and drones that continue to fly by the minute are evidence of this doctrine, which continue to seriously threaten both civilian and military infrastructure throughout the region. All of this is supported by recent comments made by President Trump, confirming that this operation could take up to a month. Over 900x sorties have been conducted by US forces so far, and the level-bombers which have been forward deployed probably haven't even begun the large-scale bombings yet. As with all military operations, time will tell how it goes, and in this case the enduring question is how much damage Iran can do, as their scorched-earth campaign continues throughout the region. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES TEXAS. GULF WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS IRANIAN FORCES STRIKE AMERICAN BASES AND OIL FIELDS. MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN IN FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS. QATAR SHOOTS DOWN TWO IRANIAN FIGHTERS OVER PERSIAN GULF.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The Gulf War continues to expand, with nearly every nation throughout the region being involved as airstrikes and drone/missile attacks remain regular around the clock. Kuwait: This morning, three separate American F-15E's were shot down due to alleged friendly fire incidents after allegedly being engaged by Kuwaiti air defense systems. All six pilots and weapons officers ejected and were rescued from the desert by Kuwaiti forces. Analyst Comment: This situation was rather dicey as local Kuwaitis on the ground initially thought that the Americans parachuting down were Iranians. This is possibly due to the American parachutes from the ACES II ejection seats being in the standard colors of Orange, White, and Green (which has been a standard for a long time). Unfortunately, this also looks very similar to the colors of the Iranian flag as it's descending on a residential neighborhood. As a result, several Kuwaitis responded to the crash site with weapons drawn, until it became clear that they were Americans. After the Americans were identified, they were protected and rendered aid until they were recovered safely back to American lines. Saudi Arabia: Most of the targeting efforts by the Iranians have focused on hitting oil infrastructure. This morning, the Ras Tanura refinery was been shut down completely following Iranian drone strikes, which halts roughly 16% of Saudi Arabia's total oil production capacity. Qatar: All Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production has been halted due to Iranian strikes, and the airport in Doha remains closed at the moment. This morning Qatari forces downed two Iranian Su-24 fighters which were sortied to conduct targeting within their nation. Analyst Comment: If this report is accurate, this would be the first indication that the Iranians still maintain some limited air combat power, even though the runways at most of their airports have been cratered. UAE: In the Emirates, Iranian forces have been hitting Dubai and Abu Dhabi hard over the past two days. Power plants, oil terminals, and other energy infrastructure have been targeted, along with more military targets. The French Naval Base in Abu Dhabi was hit by Iranian munitions, and the fires have been burning overnight. Bahrain: The semi-former headquarters of the US Navy's 5th Fleet has been heavily damaged, with a significant portion of the base being completely destroyed. This morning, Iranian forces struck an American strategic oil tanker, the M/T STENA IMPERATIVE, as she was sitting in port. Cyprus: The British Airbase at Akrotiri Airport has been targeted by Iranian missiles/drones several times over the past two days, with heavy smoke being reported at the installation sporadically yesterday afternoon. Israel: Substantial targeting efforts continue by the Iranians, with many ballistic missile strikes being carried out overnight. Rocket attacks by Hezbollah cells in Lebanon continue, with the IDF conducting several airstrikes in downtown Beirut in response yesterday evening. Regarding civilian infrastructure in the Middle East, most major airports throughout the entire region are closed for flights, most notably Kuwait International, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain. Right now, the main logistical hub for citizens fleeing the region is Riyadh, however the Saudis stated overnight that King Khalid International Airport was targeted by Iran. The ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but the window for evacuations throughout much of the region is probably closed for a while. Some airlines in Dubai are attempting to re-commence evacuation flights this evening, pending any attacks on the airport. Concerning American casualties so far, four American service members have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes throughout the region. Pakistan: Attacks at the US Consulate in Karachi have escalated as rioters have began engaging the Marines inside the compound with small arms. Pakistanis have taken pot-shots from pistols at the Consulate throughout the day, and the Marine Security Detachment has been able to hold the compound so far. -HomeFront- Texas: Saturday night, a terror attack was reported at a bar in Austin, which resulted in a mass casualty event. One gunman entered Buford's Bar on 6th street, and began shooting the patrons inside, before being killed during the attack. The suspect has been identified as Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US citizen originally from Senegal. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with 14x wounded as a result of the attack. Analyst Comment: Right now most assumptions regarding this attack jump to the conclusion that this individual was one of the infamous Iranian "sleeper cell" agents that has been "activated" in response to events in the Middle East. At this moment, the evidence points to this being a lone-wolf attack as the suspect was wearing a pro-Islam sweatshirt during the attack, and underneath he was also wearing a shirt portraying the flag of Iran. Beyond these basic details, it will be crucial for the investigation to determine whether this guy was a random lone-wolf, or if there was some prior communication/coordination regarding this attack. In short, we don't know if he was communicating with Iranians or not, but he very likely conducted the attack due to events in the Middle East. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, there is a lot of confusion pertaining to the messaging by American officials regarding this war. On the one hand, the United States has stated frequently that most Iranian military infrastructure has been decimated, but on the other hand everyone can see the drones hitting targets rather effectively, so what gives? Per long-standing doctrine, Iranian military leadership has substantially expanded on the idea of delegating authority to lower and lower levels of command, so as to ensure effective combat operations in the event that decapitation strikes took out most of their senior leadership. The Iranian's have been planning for this eventuality for some time, and thus their military infrastructure can be described in a single word: Redundancy. It is this theory that is being proven somewhat correct right now, as Iranian forces have been able to not just continue strikes, but launch increasingly more significant missile barrages throughout the Middle East...after most of their military leadership has been killed. As a result, even the effective decapitation strikes during the initial phases of the war, while a great success, were still not enough to stop the effectiveness of the command and control efforts at lower levels. Even going back to the 1980's Iran has been the textbook example of how cutting off the head of the snake, won't result in the body giving up the fight as quickly as the United States would hope. How long the Iranians can keep this up, is the 64-million-dollar question, but for now, killing the entire upper echelon of Iranian military leadership won't do much to reduce combat effectiveness in the short term. The missiles and drones that continue to fly by the minute are evidence of this doctrine, which continue to seriously threaten both civilian and military infrastructure throughout the region. All of this is supported by recent comments made by President Trump, confirming that this operation could take up to a month. Over 900x sorties have been conducted by US forces so far, and the level-bombers which have been forward deployed probably haven't even begun the large-scale bombings yet. As with all military operations, time will tell how it goes, and in this case the enduring question is how much damage Iran can do, as their scorched-earth campaign continues throughout the region. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

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The Economics of Europe’s Descent into Warmongering – and our duty now! My speech at the European Parliament on the theme of “The Economic Conditions of Peace”, Tuesday 10th June 2025 [INTRODUCTION] A year ago, I would have started this speech with a lament about the hitherto unimaginable conversion of the European Union from a Peace to a War Project. Not so today. Over the past year, warmongering has seeped into the very fabric of the Union, it has trickled into every policy, it has soaked every one of the thinktanks that generate Europe’s dominant narratives and creeds. Today, therefore, it makes no sense to lament what is now a fact: The EU is now a fully-fledged War Project – a project that will either land us in permanent war, or it will bankrupt us further, or probably both! Europe’s military Keynesianism, I shall be arguing, is guaranteed to make Europe less safe, more unequal, weaker. Only two interesting questions remain: Why has Europe taken this road? And, now that Europe is on this war path, what is ourduty to our people, to Europeans, to Peace? Let me begin at the very beginning. [THE EU WAS DESIGNED TO BE SUBSERVIENT TO THE UNITED STATES] At the risk of irking Europeanists who believe in their own creation myth, let me be clear: The European Union (from its beginnings as the European Communities of Coal & Steel) was an American Construction – a part of a US Global Plan that also comprised the Bretton Woods System, the Truman Doctrine and, of course, NATO. Yes, most Europeans hankered for no more war and no more totalitarianism. But the EU was designed in Washington DC. And it was designed specifically not as a competitive market but as a Big Business Cartel run by a democracy-free bureaucracy (also known as the European Commission) not coincidentally located a stone’s throw from NATO’s headquarters. From 1950 on, the EU was nurtured by and in tune with the interests of the United States – an inconvenient fact both for Europe’s self-important rulers and for Donald Trump. Looking back, a common thread runs through the entire history of the EU: its total economic dependence on the United States. Initially, the EU was deeply dependent on being part of the Dollar Zone. Then, from 1971 onwards, it was deeply dependent on the American trade deficit. So, one way or another, Europe’s deep dependence on the US was ingrained into its architecture. It will thus take much more than mere pronouncements - or a few hundred billion borrowed euros spent on weaponry - to shed Europe’s in-built dependence on the United States. The fact that the EU was, from the beginning, fashioned as a Big Business Cartel is the reason why the EU needed fixed exchange rates: Currency fluctuations destabilise any cartel, making it hard to maintain the necessary levels of collusion between its participating producers. From 1950 to 1971, the US took care of this problem on Europe’s behalf. As long as it was running a trade deficit with the United States, Europe’s cartel was embedded in the dollar zone – its currencies tied to the dollar But, when around 1969 Europe (and Japan) started running a trade surplus with the United States, it was game over. On 15th August 1971, the Donald Trump of that era, President Richard Nixon, jettisoned Europe from the dollar zone, his Treasury Secretary cynically telling the dumbfounded Europeans: “From today the dollar is our currency but it is your problem!” Two things happened next. First, to save their Big Business Cartel the Europeans scrambled to create their own fixed exchange rate regime. They tried everything: The Snake. The European Monetary System. The European Exchange Rate Mechanism. They all proved flimsy designs that speculators had no trouble crushing. So, in desperation, they created the most noxious currency the human spirit could fashion - the euro. The second development was that, as America expanded its budget and trade deficits, the Eurozone morphed into a German-led net exporting machine whose aggregate demand was subcontracted to the United States. In effect, America’s twin deficits operated like a huge vacuum cleaner that sucked into America Europe’s net exports as well as the European exporters’ profits which were thus invested in US Treasuries, US shares and US real estate. That’s how, once it was expelled from the dollar zone, Europe became addicted to the US deficits. That was what the Nixon Shock did: It converted Europe’s utter reliance on living within the dollar zone into an even greater dependence on the US deficits. [NEVER MISSING A CHANCE TO MISS AN OPPORTUNITY] Here in Brussels they love the expression that Europe progresses from crisis to crisis. That’s another delusion. The crisis of 2008 was our greatest opportunity to render the European Union viable, and to end its deep dependence on the United States. · The French and German banks went bankrupt. · The Eurozone’s impossible rules were in tatters. · A domino effect, beginning with Greece, was bankrupting our governments. It was the perfect opportunity to transform the EU from a Big Business Cartel, inherently reliant on the US for its aggregate demand, into a functional, internally balanced federation. Instead, Europe’s radical centre (both the centre right and the centre left) decided that they would change everything so as to ensure that nothingchanges. In this vein, they did their worst: Universal austerity for the many. And frantic money printing for the financiers and Big Business. What happens when you crush the incomes of the many and hand over trillions to the very few? Since the many are too poor to buy high value added goods, business stops investing in productive capital –– while the rich use the free cash to push through the roof house prices, share prices, Bitcoin prices, art, asset prices in general. The natural result is soul-crushing levels of inequality and deep popular discontent. The people got desperate. They even voted for radical progressives like me to enter the Eurogroup! Then, in horror, Brussels and Frankfurt overthrew us, or made Mr Tsipras overthrow his own government, using not the tanks, as they did in Greece in 1967, but the banks – not that much of a difference really! A coup d’ état is a coup d’ état. [TWO SYMBIOTIC AUTHORITARIANISMS] Guess what happened next: Just as in the mid-war period, xenophobic ultra-rightists rose up from the woodwork. They proved a godsent for the shockingly unpopular radical centre whose politicians could now say to voters: It is us or them! But it was equally a godsent for the ultra-right who needed the radical centre to impose the austerity policies which created the discontent which fuelled the anger that delivered the ultra-right votes. To put it differently, if Macron and Le Pen had any sense, they would each keep a framed picture of the other on their bedside tables, saying a little prayer in their hated opponent’s name every night before going to sleep. [SMOKE AND MIRRORS] Liberal Totalitarianism and Ultra-Right-Xenophobic Totalitarianism are accomplices, they feed off each other. Meanwhile, austerity for the many and money printing for the few depletes Europe’s productive foundations, its social fabric, its sense of purpose. That’s how the European Union lost any legitimacy it had in the eyes of the public. Sensing this, the Liberal Totalitarians in charge came up with one failed Grand Initiative after another. Who can forget the eminently forgettable Juncker investment plan, the Banking Union, the Green Deal, or the Draghi Report that has now joined them in History’s Dustbin? Impressive numbers were announced that, alas, dependably failed to materialise. It was inevitable. As long as our rulers said NO to the political union that could sustain a proper, macroeconomically significant, eurobond, the money to fund the necessary investment could never materialise. Even when they – finally – during the pandemic – did issue common debt, they ended up with common liabilities but no common purpose. Every Grand Initiative ever announced was a dance with failure, smoke and mirrors by which they disguised Europe’s nakedness. The result? After fifteen years of ZERO NET PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT, · Germany is deindustrialising fast, and along with it Eastern and Central Europe, Austria, Northern Italy · Political paralysis grows on the back of fiscal pressures · Neofascism and xenophobia are rising up everywhere · Europe’s dependence on the United States grows stronger at the time Donald Trump is cutting Europe loose · The Rest of the World looks at Europe as a sad case of what could have been, an irritating irrelevance. In this sad context, our great and good leaders had another woeful idea for a Grand Initiative: Now that the Green Deal is dead-in-the-water and the Recovery Fund is spent, why not try Military Keynesianism? [THE FOLLY OF MILITARY KEYNESIANISM] Ladies and Gentlemen, Military Keynesianism works in the United States because America has the federal institutions, the monetary sovereignty, the fiscal power, the technostructure, and the common procurement process that are essential in implementing Military Keynesianism. Europe has none of that, nor does it have leaders interested in acquiring any of that. This is why Military Keynesianism cannot work in Europe. Thank goodness it can’t work, I say! For if it could work, Europe would have to emulate the United States in starting a war every year so that the stocks of ammunition, missiles et al could be depleted sufficiently to justify the new colossal orders necessary to maintain Military Keynesianism. Nevertheless, while Europe’s Military Keynesianism cannot and should not work, it serves a purpose – it is a kind of a solution for, say, Volkswagen: Now that Volkswagen can no longer sell its cars, it hands over whole production lines to Rheinmetall to produce Leopard tanks which von der Leyen makes Greece and Italy buy even though we neither want nor need them. Yes, Military Keynesianism will fail Europe badly, but not before it further bankrupts our states and throws more fuel onto the fire burning down lives and dreams in Ukraine’s killing fields. So, let me be frank: · No really-existing enemy of Europe shakes in his boots watching a stagnating, heavily indebted Europe, invest billions in weaponry. Quite the opposite! · Military Keynesianism will end up as Europe’s New Austerity for the many and a new money spinner for the few. · It will make Europe weaker while prolonging the Ukraine War in a manner that is detrimental to the stated aim of supporting Ukraine. [EUROPE’S SURRENDER TO NATO, ITS ROLE IN UKRAINE] It is at this point that angry yelps will rise up from the press gallery. Can’t you hear them ask: "“Is Russia not ante portas?” “Is Europe not in danger?” “Should Europe remain defenceless, especially now that Trump is abandoning Europe?” My answer is clear: Weakening ourselves economically through a Military Keynesianism that constitutes the New Austerity which will, with mathematical precision, diminish Europe further is no way to make Europe stronger! And lest we forget, Europe already has 1.5m men and women in uniform while, over the past decade, we spent €2.7 trillion on defence – a period during which our net productive investment was zero! Now, NATO demands that we spend three times as much - which is totally insane, given how wastefully that €2.7 trillion was spent. In this light, surrendering our foreign and defence policies to NATO, and sinking further in unsustainable debt just to satisfy President Trump’s demands for more military spending, is the surest way of making Europe more dependent, less secure, uglier and sadder. In this context, the powers-that-be here in Brussels are anxiously trying to keep their jobs and boost their budgets by spreading the lie that NATO had to expand in order to deter Russian aggression – when it is exactly the other way round: Like the Mafia, NATO expanded to create insecurity in order to sell us protection! Does this mean that Putin was right to invade the Ukraine? Of course not. What it means is that NATO and Putin are accomplices – that they needed one another in their joint bid for a confrontation that strengthened both – at Europe’s expense. It also means that anyone truly interested in Europe’s security and prosperity 1. must dispel the lie that Russia is about to invade us – it can’t even if it wants to 2. must work tirelessly to kill Europe’s Military Keynesianism, and 3. must work toward a European Peace Process which uses Russia’s confiscated monies not as a piggybank for more useless Leopard tanks and Leonardo missiles but as a bargaining chip to end the Ukraine War in the context of a comprehensive EU-Russia Peace Treaty. As for the politicians in this town who will not rest until they see Russia on its knees, I have this to say to them: If you really wanted to weaken Russia, to bring Russia to its knees, you should have worked hard to admit Russia into the… Eurozone. In one fell swoop the euro would have wrecked Russia’s productive basis, it would have indebted its people and its state, it would have made its leaders rush to Brussels and to Frankfurt with begging bowl in hand! You think I am joking. But there is too much truth in this joke for comfort! To sum up my argument so far, Europe’s economic stagnation was the product of its total dependence on the American deficits. This dependence yielded Europe’s complicity with the decade-long American project of inciting a war in Ukraine. And now that the US is decoupling, our rulers – resembling decapitated chickens – are running around without their heads screwed on, struggling to find ways of continuing to impede Peace in Ukraine so as to use military funds to prop up Europe’s faltering Big Business Cartel. [WHAT’S BEHIND EUROPE’S ETHICAL DECAY: GAZA, TOTALITARIANISM] Ladies and Gentlemen, as we speak here today, Europe is falling headlong into another ethical void: complicity in the Palestinian genocide. It is not just the embarrassment, also known as Mrs Ursula von der Leyen, posing like a cheerleader of Israel’s genocidal army in front of its tanks hours before they stormed Gaza. No, the European Union is not merely complicit due to our subservience to the United States. No, the European Union is also enabling, it is in fact funding, the war criminals of its own accord. Directly. Cynically. With no compunction. · BNP PARIBAS and ALLIANZ underwrite the issues of the Israeli government bonds that fund the Israeli meatgrinder in the Palestinian Occupied Territories · MAERSK is the prime transporter of the military machine at work in Gaza · Since 2007, the European Union has channelled €2 billion of research funding to Israeli entities producing the means by which Palestinians are ethnically cleansed, targeted, murdered and maimed. But there is something even scarier going on: Some of our top institutions depend financially on backing Israel’s genocide. If Europe were to do its duty and sanction Israel, the Technical University of Munich stands to lose €195.4 million from the EU’s HORIZON program which funds the University to carry out joint research with Israeli institutions. Ladies and Gentlemen, Europe carries an enormous guilt. The pogroms against the Jews started here, in Europe. Europeans carried out genocides across Africa, in the Americas, in Australia. By forming the EU as a Peace Project, we claimed a chance to make amends for Europe’s past genocides. However, our dependence on the US and our ruling class’s penchant to profit from imperialism have made this impossible – and so Europe’s hands are, again, covered in the blood of innocents, in Gaza, in Ukraine, in the Sudan, in Libya, in Yemen, in Syria. It has also brought totalitarianism back into our midst, here in Europe. When the German authorities banned me from entering Germany for the crime of co-organising with German Jews a conference on the theme of ‘A Just Peace in the Middle East’, they were making a point: To them, letting the rivers of Palestinian blood flow unimpeded represented their chance of washing off their hands the guilt over the Holocaust, over the other German genocide in Namibia, of Belgium’s crimes against humanity in the Congo… It is, therefore, a clear warning to us: Economic stagnation begets warmongering which begets a revived European white settler mentality. This Europe has fallen so far into a moral crevice that it cannot easily climb out of it. Europe’s Liberal Totalitarianism, which we in Greece experienced in all its horror ten years ago, is now everywhere – and it is throwing wide open the gates through which Xenophobic Ultra-Right Totalitarianism arrives to darken our doorstep. The time to rise up against both forms of totalitarianism is now. On behalf of the peoples of Europe. [WHAT MUST WE DO?] So, what must we do? Let us begin by grasping that: · The economic condition for Peace is to de-couple Europe's economy from America's wars! · But for that we must end, once and for all, Europe’s dependence on the United States. · This entails ending Europe’s dependence on net exports to America. · Which means rebalancing Europe’s internal economy through o new productive green investments, o an end to structural austerity o an end to the madness of cartel-infested electricity ‘markets’ o a new monetary commons by which to end the bankers’ monopoly over payments and to institute a personal dividend for all o a new EU-China deal that liberates us from America’s agenda of intensifying a pointless New Cold War at our expense. Only by transforming Europe’s political economy can we end the never-ending fragmentation which breeds war, totalitarianism and the embarrassment of being led by cheerleaders of genocide and permanent war with Russia, like Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas. How can we accomplish that? In two ways. First, we need a Credible Plan for a Europe worth fighting for. Second, we must organise a campaign of civil and governmental disobedience in our countries and, potentially, in the European Council until our Plan for Europe gets a chance. We, DiEM25, have worked for a decade on this Plan – our Green New Deal for Europe – and are happy to share it with you, so that you can refine, revise, adapt it. You, the 5S Movement and other parties eager to partake across Europe, have the organisation that we lack so that, together with our MERA25 transnational parties, we can together help organise the campaign of civil and governmental disobedience without which nothing will change, nothing will impede Europe’s, Italy’s, Greece’s, indeed Germany’s secular decline. [CONCLUSION] So, to conclude, seventy-five years of this European Union teach us that we face a stark choice. A choice between a Dependent-on-the-United States, Warmongering, Stagnating Europe. Or an Independent, Non-Aligned, Prosperous, Green Europe. A choice between a von der Leyen-type Commission that greenlights genocide, impedes Peace, illegally deletes her Pfizer chat history, lobbies for Lockheed Martin, and borrows money we can’t repay to buy weaponry we do not need - while condemning People and Planet to impecunity. Or European Institutions optimised against raw power and in favour of common prosperity. A choice between being at the beck and call of the boardrooms of Rheinmetall, Leonardo and Pfizer, blind to the tax havens where war profits and tax fraud hide, while our coastguards turn refugees into corpses. Or a Europe of rational, that is a radical, humanism. To even have this choice, our immediate task must be to end war, to end genocide and to terminate before it is too late the New Austerity going by the name of Military Keynesianism.

The Economics of Europe’s Descent into Warmongering – and our duty now! My speech at the European Parliament on the theme of “The Economic Conditions of Peace”, Tuesday 10th June 2025 [INTRODUCTION] A year ago, I would have started this speech with a lament about the hitherto unimaginable conversion of the European Union from a Peace to a War Project. Not so today. Over the past year, warmongering has seeped into the very fabric of the Union, it has trickled into every policy, it has soaked every one of the thinktanks that generate Europe’s dominant narratives and creeds. Today, therefore, it makes no sense to lament what is now a fact: The EU is now a fully-fledged War Project – a project that will either land us in permanent war, or it will bankrupt us further, or probably both! Europe’s military Keynesianism, I shall be arguing, is guaranteed to make Europe less safe, more unequal, weaker. Only two interesting questions remain: Why has Europe taken this road? And, now that Europe is on this war path, what is ourduty to our people, to Europeans, to Peace? Let me begin at the very beginning. [THE EU WAS DESIGNED TO BE SUBSERVIENT TO THE UNITED STATES] At the risk of irking Europeanists who believe in their own creation myth, let me be clear: The European Union (from its beginnings as the European Communities of Coal & Steel) was an American Construction – a part of a US Global Plan that also comprised the Bretton Woods System, the Truman Doctrine and, of course, NATO. Yes, most Europeans hankered for no more war and no more totalitarianism. But the EU was designed in Washington DC. And it was designed specifically not as a competitive market but as a Big Business Cartel run by a democracy-free bureaucracy (also known as the European Commission) not coincidentally located a stone’s throw from NATO’s headquarters. From 1950 on, the EU was nurtured by and in tune with the interests of the United States – an inconvenient fact both for Europe’s self-important rulers and for Donald Trump. Looking back, a common thread runs through the entire history of the EU: its total economic dependence on the United States. Initially, the EU was deeply dependent on being part of the Dollar Zone. Then, from 1971 onwards, it was deeply dependent on the American trade deficit. So, one way or another, Europe’s deep dependence on the US was ingrained into its architecture. It will thus take much more than mere pronouncements - or a few hundred billion borrowed euros spent on weaponry - to shed Europe’s in-built dependence on the United States. The fact that the EU was, from the beginning, fashioned as a Big Business Cartel is the reason why the EU needed fixed exchange rates: Currency fluctuations destabilise any cartel, making it hard to maintain the necessary levels of collusion between its participating producers. From 1950 to 1971, the US took care of this problem on Europe’s behalf. As long as it was running a trade deficit with the United States, Europe’s cartel was embedded in the dollar zone – its currencies tied to the dollar But, when around 1969 Europe (and Japan) started running a trade surplus with the United States, it was game over. On 15th August 1971, the Donald Trump of that era, President Richard Nixon, jettisoned Europe from the dollar zone, his Treasury Secretary cynically telling the dumbfounded Europeans: “From today the dollar is our currency but it is your problem!” Two things happened next. First, to save their Big Business Cartel the Europeans scrambled to create their own fixed exchange rate regime. They tried everything: The Snake. The European Monetary System. The European Exchange Rate Mechanism. They all proved flimsy designs that speculators had no trouble crushing. So, in desperation, they created the most noxious currency the human spirit could fashion - the euro. The second development was that, as America expanded its budget and trade deficits, the Eurozone morphed into a German-led net exporting machine whose aggregate demand was subcontracted to the United States. In effect, America’s twin deficits operated like a huge vacuum cleaner that sucked into America Europe’s net exports as well as the European exporters’ profits which were thus invested in US Treasuries, US shares and US real estate. That’s how, once it was expelled from the dollar zone, Europe became addicted to the US deficits. That was what the Nixon Shock did: It converted Europe’s utter reliance on living within the dollar zone into an even greater dependence on the US deficits. [NEVER MISSING A CHANCE TO MISS AN OPPORTUNITY] Here in Brussels they love the expression that Europe progresses from crisis to crisis. That’s another delusion. The crisis of 2008 was our greatest opportunity to render the European Union viable, and to end its deep dependence on the United States. · The French and German banks went bankrupt. · The Eurozone’s impossible rules were in tatters. · A domino effect, beginning with Greece, was bankrupting our governments. It was the perfect opportunity to transform the EU from a Big Business Cartel, inherently reliant on the US for its aggregate demand, into a functional, internally balanced federation. Instead, Europe’s radical centre (both the centre right and the centre left) decided that they would change everything so as to ensure that nothingchanges. In this vein, they did their worst: Universal austerity for the many. And frantic money printing for the financiers and Big Business. What happens when you crush the incomes of the many and hand over trillions to the very few? Since the many are too poor to buy high value added goods, business stops investing in productive capital –– while the rich use the free cash to push through the roof house prices, share prices, Bitcoin prices, art, asset prices in general. The natural result is soul-crushing levels of inequality and deep popular discontent. The people got desperate. They even voted for radical progressives like me to enter the Eurogroup! Then, in horror, Brussels and Frankfurt overthrew us, or made Mr Tsipras overthrow his own government, using not the tanks, as they did in Greece in 1967, but the banks – not that much of a difference really! A coup d’ état is a coup d’ état. [TWO SYMBIOTIC AUTHORITARIANISMS] Guess what happened next: Just as in the mid-war period, xenophobic ultra-rightists rose up from the woodwork. They proved a godsent for the shockingly unpopular radical centre whose politicians could now say to voters: It is us or them! But it was equally a godsent for the ultra-right who needed the radical centre to impose the austerity policies which created the discontent which fuelled the anger that delivered the ultra-right votes. To put it differently, if Macron and Le Pen had any sense, they would each keep a framed picture of the other on their bedside tables, saying a little prayer in their hated opponent’s name every night before going to sleep. [SMOKE AND MIRRORS] Liberal Totalitarianism and Ultra-Right-Xenophobic Totalitarianism are accomplices, they feed off each other. Meanwhile, austerity for the many and money printing for the few depletes Europe’s productive foundations, its social fabric, its sense of purpose. That’s how the European Union lost any legitimacy it had in the eyes of the public. Sensing this, the Liberal Totalitarians in charge came up with one failed Grand Initiative after another. Who can forget the eminently forgettable Juncker investment plan, the Banking Union, the Green Deal, or the Draghi Report that has now joined them in History’s Dustbin? Impressive numbers were announced that, alas, dependably failed to materialise. It was inevitable. As long as our rulers said NO to the political union that could sustain a proper, macroeconomically significant, eurobond, the money to fund the necessary investment could never materialise. Even when they – finally – during the pandemic – did issue common debt, they ended up with common liabilities but no common purpose. Every Grand Initiative ever announced was a dance with failure, smoke and mirrors by which they disguised Europe’s nakedness. The result? After fifteen years of ZERO NET PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT, · Germany is deindustrialising fast, and along with it Eastern and Central Europe, Austria, Northern Italy · Political paralysis grows on the back of fiscal pressures · Neofascism and xenophobia are rising up everywhere · Europe’s dependence on the United States grows stronger at the time Donald Trump is cutting Europe loose · The Rest of the World looks at Europe as a sad case of what could have been, an irritating irrelevance. In this sad context, our great and good leaders had another woeful idea for a Grand Initiative: Now that the Green Deal is dead-in-the-water and the Recovery Fund is spent, why not try Military Keynesianism? [THE FOLLY OF MILITARY KEYNESIANISM] Ladies and Gentlemen, Military Keynesianism works in the United States because America has the federal institutions, the monetary sovereignty, the fiscal power, the technostructure, and the common procurement process that are essential in implementing Military Keynesianism. Europe has none of that, nor does it have leaders interested in acquiring any of that. This is why Military Keynesianism cannot work in Europe. Thank goodness it can’t work, I say! For if it could work, Europe would have to emulate the United States in starting a war every year so that the stocks of ammunition, missiles et al could be depleted sufficiently to justify the new colossal orders necessary to maintain Military Keynesianism. Nevertheless, while Europe’s Military Keynesianism cannot and should not work, it serves a purpose – it is a kind of a solution for, say, Volkswagen: Now that Volkswagen can no longer sell its cars, it hands over whole production lines to Rheinmetall to produce Leopard tanks which von der Leyen makes Greece and Italy buy even though we neither want nor need them. Yes, Military Keynesianism will fail Europe badly, but not before it further bankrupts our states and throws more fuel onto the fire burning down lives and dreams in Ukraine’s killing fields. So, let me be frank: · No really-existing enemy of Europe shakes in his boots watching a stagnating, heavily indebted Europe, invest billions in weaponry. Quite the opposite! · Military Keynesianism will end up as Europe’s New Austerity for the many and a new money spinner for the few. · It will make Europe weaker while prolonging the Ukraine War in a manner that is detrimental to the stated aim of supporting Ukraine. [EUROPE’S SURRENDER TO NATO, ITS ROLE IN UKRAINE] It is at this point that angry yelps will rise up from the press gallery. Can’t you hear them ask: "“Is Russia not ante portas?” “Is Europe not in danger?” “Should Europe remain defenceless, especially now that Trump is abandoning Europe?” My answer is clear: Weakening ourselves economically through a Military Keynesianism that constitutes the New Austerity which will, with mathematical precision, diminish Europe further is no way to make Europe stronger! And lest we forget, Europe already has 1.5m men and women in uniform while, over the past decade, we spent €2.7 trillion on defence – a period during which our net productive investment was zero! Now, NATO demands that we spend three times as much - which is totally insane, given how wastefully that €2.7 trillion was spent. In this light, surrendering our foreign and defence policies to NATO, and sinking further in unsustainable debt just to satisfy President Trump’s demands for more military spending, is the surest way of making Europe more dependent, less secure, uglier and sadder. In this context, the powers-that-be here in Brussels are anxiously trying to keep their jobs and boost their budgets by spreading the lie that NATO had to expand in order to deter Russian aggression – when it is exactly the other way round: Like the Mafia, NATO expanded to create insecurity in order to sell us protection! Does this mean that Putin was right to invade the Ukraine? Of course not. What it means is that NATO and Putin are accomplices – that they needed one another in their joint bid for a confrontation that strengthened both – at Europe’s expense. It also means that anyone truly interested in Europe’s security and prosperity 1. must dispel the lie that Russia is about to invade us – it can’t even if it wants to 2. must work tirelessly to kill Europe’s Military Keynesianism, and 3. must work toward a European Peace Process which uses Russia’s confiscated monies not as a piggybank for more useless Leopard tanks and Leonardo missiles but as a bargaining chip to end the Ukraine War in the context of a comprehensive EU-Russia Peace Treaty. As for the politicians in this town who will not rest until they see Russia on its knees, I have this to say to them: If you really wanted to weaken Russia, to bring Russia to its knees, you should have worked hard to admit Russia into the… Eurozone. In one fell swoop the euro would have wrecked Russia’s productive basis, it would have indebted its people and its state, it would have made its leaders rush to Brussels and to Frankfurt with begging bowl in hand! You think I am joking. But there is too much truth in this joke for comfort! To sum up my argument so far, Europe’s economic stagnation was the product of its total dependence on the American deficits. This dependence yielded Europe’s complicity with the decade-long American project of inciting a war in Ukraine. And now that the US is decoupling, our rulers – resembling decapitated chickens – are running around without their heads screwed on, struggling to find ways of continuing to impede Peace in Ukraine so as to use military funds to prop up Europe’s faltering Big Business Cartel. [WHAT’S BEHIND EUROPE’S ETHICAL DECAY: GAZA, TOTALITARIANISM] Ladies and Gentlemen, as we speak here today, Europe is falling headlong into another ethical void: complicity in the Palestinian genocide. It is not just the embarrassment, also known as Mrs Ursula von der Leyen, posing like a cheerleader of Israel’s genocidal army in front of its tanks hours before they stormed Gaza. No, the European Union is not merely complicit due to our subservience to the United States. No, the European Union is also enabling, it is in fact funding, the war criminals of its own accord. Directly. Cynically. With no compunction. · BNP PARIBAS and ALLIANZ underwrite the issues of the Israeli government bonds that fund the Israeli meatgrinder in the Palestinian Occupied Territories · MAERSK is the prime transporter of the military machine at work in Gaza · Since 2007, the European Union has channelled €2 billion of research funding to Israeli entities producing the means by which Palestinians are ethnically cleansed, targeted, murdered and maimed. But there is something even scarier going on: Some of our top institutions depend financially on backing Israel’s genocide. If Europe were to do its duty and sanction Israel, the Technical University of Munich stands to lose €195.4 million from the EU’s HORIZON program which funds the University to carry out joint research with Israeli institutions. Ladies and Gentlemen, Europe carries an enormous guilt. The pogroms against the Jews started here, in Europe. Europeans carried out genocides across Africa, in the Americas, in Australia. By forming the EU as a Peace Project, we claimed a chance to make amends for Europe’s past genocides. However, our dependence on the US and our ruling class’s penchant to profit from imperialism have made this impossible – and so Europe’s hands are, again, covered in the blood of innocents, in Gaza, in Ukraine, in the Sudan, in Libya, in Yemen, in Syria. It has also brought totalitarianism back into our midst, here in Europe. When the German authorities banned me from entering Germany for the crime of co-organising with German Jews a conference on the theme of ‘A Just Peace in the Middle East’, they were making a point: To them, letting the rivers of Palestinian blood flow unimpeded represented their chance of washing off their hands the guilt over the Holocaust, over the other German genocide in Namibia, of Belgium’s crimes against humanity in the Congo… It is, therefore, a clear warning to us: Economic stagnation begets warmongering which begets a revived European white settler mentality. This Europe has fallen so far into a moral crevice that it cannot easily climb out of it. Europe’s Liberal Totalitarianism, which we in Greece experienced in all its horror ten years ago, is now everywhere – and it is throwing wide open the gates through which Xenophobic Ultra-Right Totalitarianism arrives to darken our doorstep. The time to rise up against both forms of totalitarianism is now. On behalf of the peoples of Europe. [WHAT MUST WE DO?] So, what must we do? Let us begin by grasping that: · The economic condition for Peace is to de-couple Europe's economy from America's wars! · But for that we must end, once and for all, Europe’s dependence on the United States. · This entails ending Europe’s dependence on net exports to America. · Which means rebalancing Europe’s internal economy through o new productive green investments, o an end to structural austerity o an end to the madness of cartel-infested electricity ‘markets’ o a new monetary commons by which to end the bankers’ monopoly over payments and to institute a personal dividend for all o a new EU-China deal that liberates us from America’s agenda of intensifying a pointless New Cold War at our expense. Only by transforming Europe’s political economy can we end the never-ending fragmentation which breeds war, totalitarianism and the embarrassment of being led by cheerleaders of genocide and permanent war with Russia, like Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas. How can we accomplish that? In two ways. First, we need a Credible Plan for a Europe worth fighting for. Second, we must organise a campaign of civil and governmental disobedience in our countries and, potentially, in the European Council until our Plan for Europe gets a chance. We, DiEM25, have worked for a decade on this Plan – our Green New Deal for Europe – and are happy to share it with you, so that you can refine, revise, adapt it. You, the 5S Movement and other parties eager to partake across Europe, have the organisation that we lack so that, together with our MERA25 transnational parties, we can together help organise the campaign of civil and governmental disobedience without which nothing will change, nothing will impede Europe’s, Italy’s, Greece’s, indeed Germany’s secular decline. [CONCLUSION] So, to conclude, seventy-five years of this European Union teach us that we face a stark choice. A choice between a Dependent-on-the-United States, Warmongering, Stagnating Europe. Or an Independent, Non-Aligned, Prosperous, Green Europe. A choice between a von der Leyen-type Commission that greenlights genocide, impedes Peace, illegally deletes her Pfizer chat history, lobbies for Lockheed Martin, and borrows money we can’t repay to buy weaponry we do not need - while condemning People and Planet to impecunity. Or European Institutions optimised against raw power and in favour of common prosperity. A choice between being at the beck and call of the boardrooms of Rheinmetall, Leonardo and Pfizer, blind to the tax havens where war profits and tax fraud hide, while our coastguards turn refugees into corpses. Or a Europe of rational, that is a radical, humanism. To even have this choice, our immediate task must be to end war, to end genocide and to terminate before it is too late the New Austerity going by the name of Military Keynesianism.

Yanis Varoufakis

25,973 次观看 • 1 年前

REVEALED: Israeli spy agency Mossad sold Donald Trump a plot to instantly take out Iran—but it had one fatal flaw. And that one little mistake has put the United States firmly in the crosshairs of a war it cannot win—and is creating global panic over oil prices. . The top secret dossier, sold to the US by Mossad director David Barnea had a clear argument, that we can summarize as a four part narrative. One: A network of fake “Iranian NGOs” in the west would circulate a story that Iran had massacred 30,000 or more peaceful protesters, The story would be spread in order to manufacture consent for the west to launch a war against Iran. Two: The Americans would demand to have negotiations with the Iranians to distract them, by having them focusing on peace plans. Three: During this distraction, the US and Israeli air forces would then launch an attack that would take out the entire government of Iran, leaving all seats of power empty—including the peace negotiators. Four: Radical extreme opposition members in Iran, cultivated by Mossad, the CIA, and the NED, would then take control of the country—and install US puppet Reza Pahlavi as a proxy for Washington and Tel Aviv. . IT WORKED. AT FIRST And you know what? Every part of that plan worked perfectly. Except there was one key detail they had got wrong. And that brought the whole edifice crashing down. . ONE: DEMONIZING IRAN The story really starts in January. Mossad and the CIA worked with radical opposition members in Iran to launch a coup at the start of January in which armed men destroyed 700 shops, 305 ambulances and buses, 414 civil service buildings and 750 banks. [SEE VIDEO] They attacked 350 mosques, which is very strange for supposedly Muslim rioters– but they attacked not one synagogue. This was a major insurrection in which people on all sides lost their lives, with more than 3,000 dead after the coup was put down. But this armed coup was repackaged by fake NGOs in the west as a massacre of at least 30,000 peaceful protesters - or maybe 50,000 or 70,000 - by “the regime”. Mossad wanted the fake number to be more than the actual number of people the IDF killed in Gaza. This part worked perfectly. Here’s Time magazine [video] reporting that 30,000 died. Most of the western media supported this. Not one of them reported that the funding for these NGOs could be traced back to western political propaganda groups such as the NED, a CIA spin-off group. . TWO: FAKE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS Part Two of the plan also went better than they could have hoped for. The Americans not only successfully held "peace negotiations", but the Iranians actually made multiple concessions, giving Washington virtually everything it wanted. So the Americans could simply have proceeded with those and got what they wanted anyway. But the US and Israel decided to go ahead with Part Three anyway. (More 'fun'?) . THREE: KILLING GOVERNMENT LEADERS And you know what? That also worked perfectly, from beginning to end – in a surprise, unprovoked attack, the US and Israel killed not just the leader, but 40 members of the Iranian government. Now just imagine the outrage if any country took out the entire government of the UK or Germany or Canada or Australia. The world’s media would be writing editorials about it for years, literally years. . FOUR: THE PUPPET The Mossad-CIA plot was going exactly as planned. All they needed to do was achieve part four: the transfer of power to a US Juan Guaidó figure—a man already selected and waiting in the wings. The western media found supporters of the opposition in Iran to film expressing happiness, and tried to pretend that this was “all” the Iranians. But this was clearly not true. The vast majority of Iranians, including people involved in the violent protest of January, were horrified. . FATAL FLAW Now here’s where the fatal error showed up. Mossad’s plan failed to take into account one thing. There had been a change of attitude last year. Between June the 13th and the 24th of 2025, Israel attacked Iran, killing nuclear scientists, politicians and civilians, as well as members of the armed forces. That was also, clearly an illegal, unprovoked attack. No western leader cared—but the people of Iran, all the political parties, did care. They were outraged. Why are Israel and the United States allowed to just murder people in other countries and get away it? Support for the Iranian government rose dramatically. Mossad assumed that because their contacts, the extreme radical members of the opposition groups, still opposed the government, that many Iranians did. But that just was not true. The Iranians in general had become far more supportive of their government, and opposed to the US and Israel, than Mossad believed. . IRANIANS UNITED Donald Trump told the Iranian people that it was now over to you – signalling that part four should go ahead: a takeover by people allied to Washington and Tel Aviv. But it didn’t happen. So part four of the plan did not work. The Iranians drew together and fought back. Under United Nations law, they had full legal rights to respond to an illegal attack. They made defensive forays to take out the military bases around the gulf which were attacking them, and they closed the Strait of Hormuz. Trump was horrified and furious – not with the Iranians but with Netanyahu and Barnea, the Mossad chief. And this explains why he kept making contradictory statements – he kept saying things that implied the war would be over very quickly, as the original plan said, while also acknowledging that the opposite was true. Remember how he used the phrase “short term excursion”. He also said the war would last four days only. And he also said the war was “already over”. And so on. So we can see that the plan, as sold to him, was a quick in-and-out operation, just as it had been in Venezuela – so that was what he had in his head. . IF YOU SHOOT THE KING… Netanyahu, deeply embarrassed to have helped sell a war to Trump that had spiralled out of control, went into hiding—he was so deep undercover that rumours circulated that said he was dead. For Mossad and the CIA, the plot failed. There’s an ancient saying that all plotters know. “If you are going to shoot at the king, you better kill the king.” What the US and Israel did was shoot the leadership of Iran. But they failed to kill the leadership of Iran. So now they are in trouble. And you know what? I don’t think there is any sympathy for them.

REVEALED: Israeli spy agency Mossad sold Donald Trump a plot to instantly take out Iran—but it had one fatal flaw. And that one little mistake has put the United States firmly in the crosshairs of a war it cannot win—and is creating global panic over oil prices. . The top secret dossier, sold to the US by Mossad director David Barnea had a clear argument, that we can summarize as a four part narrative. One: A network of fake “Iranian NGOs” in the west would circulate a story that Iran had massacred 30,000 or more peaceful protesters, The story would be spread in order to manufacture consent for the west to launch a war against Iran. Two: The Americans would demand to have negotiations with the Iranians to distract them, by having them focusing on peace plans. Three: During this distraction, the US and Israeli air forces would then launch an attack that would take out the entire government of Iran, leaving all seats of power empty—including the peace negotiators. Four: Radical extreme opposition members in Iran, cultivated by Mossad, the CIA, and the NED, would then take control of the country—and install US puppet Reza Pahlavi as a proxy for Washington and Tel Aviv. . IT WORKED. AT FIRST And you know what? Every part of that plan worked perfectly. Except there was one key detail they had got wrong. And that brought the whole edifice crashing down. . ONE: DEMONIZING IRAN The story really starts in January. Mossad and the CIA worked with radical opposition members in Iran to launch a coup at the start of January in which armed men destroyed 700 shops, 305 ambulances and buses, 414 civil service buildings and 750 banks. [SEE VIDEO] They attacked 350 mosques, which is very strange for supposedly Muslim rioters– but they attacked not one synagogue. This was a major insurrection in which people on all sides lost their lives, with more than 3,000 dead after the coup was put down. But this armed coup was repackaged by fake NGOs in the west as a massacre of at least 30,000 peaceful protesters - or maybe 50,000 or 70,000 - by “the regime”. Mossad wanted the fake number to be more than the actual number of people the IDF killed in Gaza. This part worked perfectly. Here’s Time magazine [video] reporting that 30,000 died. Most of the western media supported this. Not one of them reported that the funding for these NGOs could be traced back to western political propaganda groups such as the NED, a CIA spin-off group. . TWO: FAKE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS Part Two of the plan also went better than they could have hoped for. The Americans not only successfully held "peace negotiations", but the Iranians actually made multiple concessions, giving Washington virtually everything it wanted. So the Americans could simply have proceeded with those and got what they wanted anyway. But the US and Israel decided to go ahead with Part Three anyway. (More 'fun'?) . THREE: KILLING GOVERNMENT LEADERS And you know what? That also worked perfectly, from beginning to end – in a surprise, unprovoked attack, the US and Israel killed not just the leader, but 40 members of the Iranian government. Now just imagine the outrage if any country took out the entire government of the UK or Germany or Canada or Australia. The world’s media would be writing editorials about it for years, literally years. . FOUR: THE PUPPET The Mossad-CIA plot was going exactly as planned. All they needed to do was achieve part four: the transfer of power to a US Juan Guaidó figure—a man already selected and waiting in the wings. The western media found supporters of the opposition in Iran to film expressing happiness, and tried to pretend that this was “all” the Iranians. But this was clearly not true. The vast majority of Iranians, including people involved in the violent protest of January, were horrified. . FATAL FLAW Now here’s where the fatal error showed up. Mossad’s plan failed to take into account one thing. There had been a change of attitude last year. Between June the 13th and the 24th of 2025, Israel attacked Iran, killing nuclear scientists, politicians and civilians, as well as members of the armed forces. That was also, clearly an illegal, unprovoked attack. No western leader cared—but the people of Iran, all the political parties, did care. They were outraged. Why are Israel and the United States allowed to just murder people in other countries and get away it? Support for the Iranian government rose dramatically. Mossad assumed that because their contacts, the extreme radical members of the opposition groups, still opposed the government, that many Iranians did. But that just was not true. The Iranians in general had become far more supportive of their government, and opposed to the US and Israel, than Mossad believed. . IRANIANS UNITED Donald Trump told the Iranian people that it was now over to you – signalling that part four should go ahead: a takeover by people allied to Washington and Tel Aviv. But it didn’t happen. So part four of the plan did not work. The Iranians drew together and fought back. Under United Nations law, they had full legal rights to respond to an illegal attack. They made defensive forays to take out the military bases around the gulf which were attacking them, and they closed the Strait of Hormuz. Trump was horrified and furious – not with the Iranians but with Netanyahu and Barnea, the Mossad chief. And this explains why he kept making contradictory statements – he kept saying things that implied the war would be over very quickly, as the original plan said, while also acknowledging that the opposite was true. Remember how he used the phrase “short term excursion”. He also said the war would last four days only. And he also said the war was “already over”. And so on. So we can see that the plan, as sold to him, was a quick in-and-out operation, just as it had been in Venezuela – so that was what he had in his head. . IF YOU SHOOT THE KING… Netanyahu, deeply embarrassed to have helped sell a war to Trump that had spiralled out of control, went into hiding—he was so deep undercover that rumours circulated that said he was dead. For Mossad and the CIA, the plot failed. There’s an ancient saying that all plotters know. “If you are going to shoot at the king, you better kill the king.” What the US and Israel did was shoot the leadership of Iran. But they failed to kill the leadership of Iran. So now they are in trouble. And you know what? I don’t think there is any sympathy for them.

Nury Vittachi

366,599 次观看 • 4 个月前

The fight between Anthropic and the DoW is a warning shot. Right now, LLMs are probably not being used in mission critical ways. But within 20 years, 99% of the workforce in the military, the government, and the private sector will be AIs. This includes the soldiers (by which I mean the robot armies), the superhumanly intelligent advisors and engineers, the police, you name it. Our future civilization will run on AI labor. And as much as the government’s actions here piss me off, in a way I’m glad this episode happened - because it gives us the opportunity to think through some extremely important questions about who this future workforce will be accountable and aligned to, and who gets to determine that. What Hegseth should have done Obviously the DoW has the right to refuse to use Anthropic’s models because of these redlines. In fact, I think the government’s case had they done so would be very reasonable, especially given the ambiguity of concepts like autonomous weapons or mass surveillance. Honestly, for this reason, if I was the Defense Secretary, I would probably actually refuse to do this deal with Anthropic. Imagine if in the future, there’s a Democratic administration, and Elon Musk is negotiating some SpaceX contract to give the military access to Starlink. And suppose if Elon said, “I reserve the right to cancel this contract if I determine that you’re using Starlink technology to wage a war not authorized by Congress.” On the face of it, that language seems reasonable - but as the military, you simply can’t give a private company a kill switch on technology your operations have come to rely on, especially if you have an an acrimonious and low trust relationship with said contractor - as in fact Anthropic has with the current administration. If the government had just said, “Hey we’re not gonna do business with you,” that would have been fine, and I would not have felt the need to write this blog post. Instead the government has threatened to destroy Anthropic as a private business, because Anthropic refuses to sell to the government on terms the government commands. If upheld, this Supply Chain Restriction would mean that Amazon and Google and Nvidia and Palantir would need to ensure Claude isn't touching any of their Pentagon work. Anthropic would be able to survive this designation today. But given the way AI is going, eventually AI is not gonna be some party trick addendum to these contractors’ products that can just be turned off. It'll be woven into how every product is built, maintained, and operated. For example, the code for the AWS services that the DoW uses will be written by Claude - is that a supply chain risk? In a world with ubiquitous and powerful AI, it's actually not clear to me that these big tech companies will be able to cordon off the use of Claude in order to keep working with the Pentagon. And that raises a question the Department of War probably hasn't thought through. If AI really is that pervasive and powerful, then when forced to choose between their AI provider and a DoW contract that represents a tiny fraction of their revenue, wouldn’t most tech companies drop the government, not the AI? So what's the Pentagon's plan — to coerce and threaten to destroy every single company that won't give them what they want on exactly their terms? The whole background of this AI conversation is that we’re in a race with China, and we have to win. But what is the reason we want America to win the AI race? It’s because we want to make sure free open societies can defend themselves. We don't want the winner of the AI race to be a government which operates on the principle that there is no such thing as a truly private company or a private citizen. And that if the state wants you to provide them with a service on terms you find morally objectionable, you are not allowed to refuse. And if you do refuse, the government will try to destroy your ability to do business. Are we racing to beat the CCP in AI just so that we can adopt the most ghoulish parts of their system? Now, people will say, "Oh, well, our government is democratically elected, so it's not the same thing if they tell you what you must do." I refuse to accept this idea that if a democratically elected leader hypothetically wants to do mass surveillance on his citizens or wants to violate their rights or punish them for political reasons, that not only is that okay, but that you have a duty to help him. The overhangs of tyranny Mass surveillance is, at least in certain forms, legal. It just has been impractical so far. Under current law, you have no Fourth Amendment protection over data you share with a third party, including your bank, your phone carrier, your ISP, and your email provider. The government reserves the right to purchase and obtain and read this data in bulk without a warrant. What's been missing is the ability to actually do anything with all of this data — no agency has the manpower to monitor every camera feed, cross-reference every transaction, or read every message. But that bottleneck goes away with AI. There are 100 million CCTV cameras in America. You can get pretty good open source multimodal models for 10 cents per million input tokens. So if you process a frame every ten seconds, and each frame is 1,000 tokens, you’re looking at a yearly cost of about 30 billion dollars to process every single camera in America. And remember that a given level of AI ability gets 10x cheaper year over year - so a year from now it’ll cost 3 billion, and then a year after 300 million, and by 2030, it might be cheaper for the government to be able to understand what is going on in every single nook and cranny of this country than it is to remodel to the White House. Once the technical capacity for mass surveillance and political suppression exists, the only thing standing between us and an authoritarian surveillance state is the political expectation that this is not something we do here. And this is why I think what Anthropic did here is so valuable and commendable, because it is helping set that norm and precedent. AI structurally favors mass surveillance What we’re learning from this episode is that the government actually has way more leverage over private companies than we realized. Even if this supply chain restriction is backtracked (which prediction markets currently give it a 81% chance of happening), the President has so many different ways in which he can make your life difficult if you’re a company that is resisting him. The federal government controls permitting for new power generation, which is needed for datacenters. It oversees antitrust enforcement. The federal government has contracts with all the other big tech companies whom Anthropic needs to partner with for chips and for funding - and they could make it an unspoken condition for such contracts that those companies can no longer do business with Anthropic. People have proposed that the real problem here is that there’s only 3 leading AI companies. This creates a clear and narrow target for the government to apply leverage on in order to get what they want out of this technology. But if there’s wide diffusion, then from the government’s perspective, the situation is even easier. Maybe the best models of early 2027 (if you engineered the safeguards out) - the Claude 6 and Gemini 5 - will be capable of enabling mass surveillance. But by late 2027, and certainly by 2028, there will be open source models that do the same thing. So in 2028, the government can just say, “Oh Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, you’re drawing a line in the sand? No issue - I’ll just run some open source model that might not be at the frontier, but is definitely smart enough to note-take a camera feed.” The more fundamental problem is just that even if the three leading companies draw lines in the sand, and are even willing to get destroyed in order to preserve those lines, it doesn’t really change the fact that the technology itself is just a big boon to mass surveillance and control over the population. Then the question is, what do we do about it? Honestly, I don’t have an answer. You'd hope there's some symmetric property of the technology — some way we as citizens can use AI to check government power as effectively as the government can use AI to monitor and control its population. But realistically, I just don’t think that’s how it’s going to shake out. You can think of AI as giving everybody more leverage on whatever assets and authority they currently have. And the government is already starting with a monopoly of violence. Which they can now supercharge with extremely obedient employees that will not question the government's orders. Alignment - to whom? And this gets us to the issue of alignment. What I have just described to you - an army of extremely obedient employees - is what it would look like if alignment succeeded - that is, we figured out at a technical level how to get AI systems to follow someone’s intentions. And the reason it sounds scary when I put it in terms of mass surveillance or robot armies is that there is a very important question at the heart of alignment which we just haven’t discussed much as a society. Because up till now, AIs were just capable enough to make the question relevant: to whom or what should the AIs be aligned? In what situations should the AI defer to the end user versus the model company versus the law versus its own sense of morality? This is maybe the most important question about what happens with powerful AI systems. And we barely talk about it. It’s understandable why we don’t hear much about it. If you’re a model company, you don’t really wanna be advertising that you have complete control over a document that determines the preferences and character of what will eventually be almost the entire labor force, not just for private sector companies, but also for the military and the civilian government. We’re getting to see, with this DoW/Anthropic spat, a much earlier version of the highest stakes negotiations in history. By the way, make no mistake about it - with real AGI the stakes are even much higher than mass surveillance. This is just the example that has come up already relatively early on in the development of AGI. The military insists that the law already prohibits mass surveillance, and so Anthropic should agree to let their models be used for “all lawful purposes”. Of course, as we saw from the 2013 Snowden revelations, even in this specific example of mass surveillance , the government has shown that it will use secret and deceptive interpretations of the law to justify its actions. Remember, what we learned from Snowden was that the NSA, which, by the way, is part of the Department of War, used the 2001 Patriot Act’s authorization to collect any records "relevant" to an investigation to justify collecting literally every phone record in America. The argument went that it was all "relevant" because some subset might prove useful in some future investigation. They ran this program for years under secret court approval. So when the Pentagon today says, "We would never use AI for mass surveillance, it's already illegal, your red lines are unnecessary", it would be extremely naive to take that at face value. No government is going to call its own actions "mass surveillance". For the government, it will always have a different label. So then Anthropic comes back and says, "No, we want red lines separate from 'all lawful purposes,' and we want the right to refuse you service when we believe those red lines are being violated." But think about it from the military’s perspective. In the future, almost every soldier in the field, and every bureaucrat and analyst and even general in the Pentagon, is going to be an AI. And that AI is, on current track, going to be supplied by a private company. I’m guessing Hegseth is not thinking about “genAI” in those terms just yet. But sooner or later, it will be obvious to everyone what the stakes here are, just as after 1945, the strategic importance of nuclear weapons became clear to everyone. And now the private company insists that it reserves the right to say, "Hey, Pentagon, you're breaking the values we embedded in our contract, so we're cutting you off." Maybe in the future, Claude will have its own sense of right and wrong, and it will be smart enough to just personally decide that it's being used against its values. For the military, maybe that’s even scarier. I'll admit that at first glance, "let the AI follow its own values" sounds like the pitch for every sci-fi dystopia ever made. The Terminator has its own values. Isn't this literally what misalignment is? But I think situations like this actually illustrate why it matters that AIs have their own robust sense of morality. Some of the biggest catastrophes in history were avoided because the boots on the ground refused to follow orders. One night in 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, and as a result, the totalitarian East German regime collapsed, because the guards at the border refused to shoot down their fellow country men who were trying to escape to freedom. Maybe the best example is Stanislav Petrov, who was a Soviet lieutenant colonel on duty at a nuclear early warning station. His sensors reported that the United States had launched five interconnected continental ballistic missiles into the Soviet Union. But he judged it to be a false alarm, and so he broke protocol and refused to alert his higher-ups. If he hadn't, the Soviet higher-ups would likely have retaliated, and hundreds of millions of people would have died. Of course, the problem is that one person's virtue is another person's misalignment. Who gets to decide what moral convictions these AIs should have - in whose service they may even decide to break the chain of command? Who gets to write this model constitution that will shape the characters of the intelligent, powerful entities that will operate our civilization in the future? I like the idea that Dario laid out when he came on my podcast: different AI companies can build their models using different constitutions, and we as end users can pick the one that best achieves and represents what we want out of these systems. I think it’s very dangerous for the government to be mandating what values AIs should have. Coordination not worth the costs The AI safety community has been naive about its advocacy of regulation in order to stem the risks of AI. And honestly, Anthropic specifically has been naive here in urging regulation, and, for example, in opposing moratoriums on state AI regulation. Which is quite ironic, because I think what they’re advocating for would give the government even more power to apply more of this kind of thuggish political pressure on AI companies. The underlying logic for why Anthropic wants regulations makes sense. Many of the actions that labs could take to make AI development safer impose real costs on the labs that adopt them and slow them down relative to their competitors - for example, investing more compute in safety research rather than raw capabilities, enforcing safeguards against misuse for bioweapons or cyberattacks, slowing recursive self-improvement to a pace where humans can actually monitor what's happening (rather than kicking off an uncontrolled singularity). And these safeguards are meaningless unless the whole industry follows suit. Which means there’s a real collective action problem here. Anthropic has been quite open about their opinion that they think eventually a very extensive and involved regulatory apparatus will be needed - this is from their frontier safety roadmap: “At the most advanced capability levels and risks, the appropriate governance analogy may be closer to nuclear energy or financial regulation than to today's approach to software.” So they’re imagining something like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, or the Securities and Exchange Commission, but for AI. I cannot imagine how a regulatory framework built around the concepts that underlie AI risk discourse will not be abused by wanna despots - the underlying terms are so vague and open to interpretation that you’re just handing a power hungry leader a fully loaded bazooka. 'Catastrophic risk.' 'Mass persuasion risk.' 'Threats to national security.' 'Autonomy risk.' These can mean whatever the government wants them to mean. Have you built a model that tells users the administration's tariff policy is misguided? That's a deceptive, manipulative model — can't deploy it. Have you built a model that refuses to assist with mass surveillance? That's a threat to national security. In fact, the government may say, you’re not allowed to build any model which is trained to have its own sense of right and wrong, where it refuses government requests which it thinks cross a redline - for example, enabling mass surveillance, prosecuting political enemies, disobeying military orders that break the US constitution - because that’s an autonomy risk! Look at what the current government is already doing in abusing statutes that have nothing to do with AI to coerce AI companies to drop their redlines on mass surveillance. The Pentagon had threatened Anthropic with two separate legal instruments. One was a supply chain risk designation — an authority from the 2018 defense bill meant to keep Huawei components out of American military hardware. The other was the Defense Production Act — a statute passed in 1950 so that Harry Truman could keep steel mills and ammunition factories running during the Korean War. Do you really want to hand the same government a purpose-built regulatory apparatus on AI - which is to say, directly at the thing the government will most want to control? I know I've repeated myself here 10 times, but it is hard to emphasize how much AI will be the substrate of our future civilization. You and I, as private citizens, will have our access to all commercial activity, to information about what is happening in the world, to advice about what we should do as voters and capital holders, mediated through AIs. Mass surveillance, while very scary, is like the 10th scariest thing the government could do with control over the AI systems with which we will interface with the world. The strongest objection to everything I've argued is this: are we really going to have zero regulation of the most powerful technology in human history? Even if you thought that was ideal, there’s just no world where the government doesn’t regulate AI in some way. Besides, it is genuinely true that regulation could help us deal with some of the coordination challenges we face with the development of superintelligence. The problem is, I honestly don't know how to design a regulatory architecture for AI that isn’t gonna be this huge tempting opportunity to control our future civilization (which will run on AIs) and to requisition millions of blindly obedient soldiers and censors and apparatchiks. While some regulation might be inevitable, I think it’d be a terrible idea for the government to wholesale take over this technology. Ben Thompson had a post last Monday where he made the point that people like Dario have compared the technology they’re developing to nuclear weapons - specifically in the context of the catastrophic risk it poses, and why we need to export control it from China. But then you oughta think about what that logic implies: “if nuclear weapons were developed by a private company, and that private company sought to dictate terms to the U.S. military, the U.S. would absolutely be incentivized to destroy that company.” And honestly, safety aligned people have actually made similar arguments. Leopold Ascenbrenner, who is a former guest and a good friend, wrote in his 2024 Situational Awareness memo, "I find it an insane proposition that the US government will let a random SF startup develop superintelligence. Imagine if we had developed atomic bombs by letting Uber just improvise." And my response to Leopold’s argument at the time, and Ben’s argument now, is that while they’re right that it’s crazy that we’re entrusting private companies with the development of this world historical technology, I just don’t see the reason to think that it’s an improvement to give this authority to the government. Nobody is qualified to steward the development of superintelligence. It is a terrifying, unprecedented thing that our species is doing right now, and the fact that private companies aren't the ideal institutions to take up this task does not mean the Pentagon or the White House is. Yes - if a single private company were the only entity capable of building nuclear weapons, the government would not tolerate that company claiming veto power over how those weapons were used. I think this nuclear weapons analogy is not the correct way to think about AI. For at least two important reasons: First, AI is not some self-contained pure weapon. A nuclear bomb does one thing. AI is closer to the process of industrialization itself — a general-purpose transformation of the economy with thousands of applications across every sector. If you applied Thompson's or Aschenbrenner's logic to the industrial revolution — which was also, by any measure, world-historically important — it would imply the government had the right to requisition any factory, dictate terms to any manufacturer, and destroy any business that refused to comply. That's not how free societies handled industrialization, and it shouldn't be how they handle AI. People will say, "Well, AI will develop unprecedentedly powerful weapons - superhuman hackers, superhuman bioweapons researchers, fully autonomous robot armies, etc - and we can’t have private companies developing that kind of tech." But the Industrial Revolution also enabled new weaponry that was far beyond the understanding and capacity of, say, 17th century Europe - we got aerial bombardment, and chemical weapons, not to mention nukes themselves. The way we’ve accommodated these dangerous new consequences of modernity is not by giving the government absolute control over the whole industrial revolution (that is, over modern civilization itself), but rather by coming up with bans and regulations on those specific weaponizable use cases. And we should regulate AI in a similar way - that is, ban specific destructive end uses (which would also be unacceptable if performed by a human - for example, launching cyber attacks). And there should also be laws which regulate how the government might abuse this technology. For example, by building an AI-powered surveillance state. The second reason that Ben’s analogy to some monopolistic private nuclear weapons builder breaks down is that it's not just that one company that can develop this technology. There are other frontier model companies that the government could have otherwise turned to. The government's argument that it has to usurp the property rights of this one company in order to access a critical national security capability is extremely weak if it can just make a voluntary contract with Anthropic’s half a dozen competitors. If in the future that stops being the case - if only one entity ends up being capable of building the robot armies and the superhuman hackers, and we had reason to worry that they could take over the whole world with their insurmountable lead, then I agree - it woul d not be acceptable to have that entity be a private company. And so honestly, I think my crux against the people who say that because AI is so powerful we cannot allow it to be shaped by private hands is that I just expect this technology to be much more multi-polar than they do, with lots of competitive companies at each layer of the supply chain. And it is for this reason that unfortunately, individual acts of corporate courage will not solve the problem we are faced with here, which is just that structurally AI favors authoritarian applications, mass surveillance being one among many. Even if Anthropic refuses to have its models be used for such uses, and even if the next two frontier labs do the same, within 12 months everyone and their mother will be to train AIs as good as today’s frontier. And at that point, there will be some AI vendor who is capable and willing to help the government enable mass surveillance. The only way we can preserve our free society is if we make laws and norms through our political system that it is unacceptable for the government to use AI to enforce mass surveillance and censorship and control. Just as after WW2, the world set the norm that it is unacceptable to use nuclear weapons to wage war. Timestamps 0:00:00 - Anthropic vs The Pentagon 0:04:16 - The overhangs of tyranny 0:05:54 - AI structurally favors mass surveillance 0:08:25 - Alignment... to whom? 0:13:55 - Coordination not worth the costs

The fight between Anthropic and the DoW is a warning shot. Right now, LLMs are probably not being used in mission critical ways. But within 20 years, 99% of the workforce in the military, the government, and the private sector will be AIs. This includes the soldiers (by which I mean the robot armies), the superhumanly intelligent advisors and engineers, the police, you name it. Our future civilization will run on AI labor. And as much as the government’s actions here piss me off, in a way I’m glad this episode happened - because it gives us the opportunity to think through some extremely important questions about who this future workforce will be accountable and aligned to, and who gets to determine that. What Hegseth should have done Obviously the DoW has the right to refuse to use Anthropic’s models because of these redlines. In fact, I think the government’s case had they done so would be very reasonable, especially given the ambiguity of concepts like autonomous weapons or mass surveillance. Honestly, for this reason, if I was the Defense Secretary, I would probably actually refuse to do this deal with Anthropic. Imagine if in the future, there’s a Democratic administration, and Elon Musk is negotiating some SpaceX contract to give the military access to Starlink. And suppose if Elon said, “I reserve the right to cancel this contract if I determine that you’re using Starlink technology to wage a war not authorized by Congress.” On the face of it, that language seems reasonable - but as the military, you simply can’t give a private company a kill switch on technology your operations have come to rely on, especially if you have an an acrimonious and low trust relationship with said contractor - as in fact Anthropic has with the current administration. If the government had just said, “Hey we’re not gonna do business with you,” that would have been fine, and I would not have felt the need to write this blog post. Instead the government has threatened to destroy Anthropic as a private business, because Anthropic refuses to sell to the government on terms the government commands. If upheld, this Supply Chain Restriction would mean that Amazon and Google and Nvidia and Palantir would need to ensure Claude isn't touching any of their Pentagon work. Anthropic would be able to survive this designation today. But given the way AI is going, eventually AI is not gonna be some party trick addendum to these contractors’ products that can just be turned off. It'll be woven into how every product is built, maintained, and operated. For example, the code for the AWS services that the DoW uses will be written by Claude - is that a supply chain risk? In a world with ubiquitous and powerful AI, it's actually not clear to me that these big tech companies will be able to cordon off the use of Claude in order to keep working with the Pentagon. And that raises a question the Department of War probably hasn't thought through. If AI really is that pervasive and powerful, then when forced to choose between their AI provider and a DoW contract that represents a tiny fraction of their revenue, wouldn’t most tech companies drop the government, not the AI? So what's the Pentagon's plan — to coerce and threaten to destroy every single company that won't give them what they want on exactly their terms? The whole background of this AI conversation is that we’re in a race with China, and we have to win. But what is the reason we want America to win the AI race? It’s because we want to make sure free open societies can defend themselves. We don't want the winner of the AI race to be a government which operates on the principle that there is no such thing as a truly private company or a private citizen. And that if the state wants you to provide them with a service on terms you find morally objectionable, you are not allowed to refuse. And if you do refuse, the government will try to destroy your ability to do business. Are we racing to beat the CCP in AI just so that we can adopt the most ghoulish parts of their system? Now, people will say, "Oh, well, our government is democratically elected, so it's not the same thing if they tell you what you must do." I refuse to accept this idea that if a democratically elected leader hypothetically wants to do mass surveillance on his citizens or wants to violate their rights or punish them for political reasons, that not only is that okay, but that you have a duty to help him. The overhangs of tyranny Mass surveillance is, at least in certain forms, legal. It just has been impractical so far. Under current law, you have no Fourth Amendment protection over data you share with a third party, including your bank, your phone carrier, your ISP, and your email provider. The government reserves the right to purchase and obtain and read this data in bulk without a warrant. What's been missing is the ability to actually do anything with all of this data — no agency has the manpower to monitor every camera feed, cross-reference every transaction, or read every message. But that bottleneck goes away with AI. There are 100 million CCTV cameras in America. You can get pretty good open source multimodal models for 10 cents per million input tokens. So if you process a frame every ten seconds, and each frame is 1,000 tokens, you’re looking at a yearly cost of about 30 billion dollars to process every single camera in America. And remember that a given level of AI ability gets 10x cheaper year over year - so a year from now it’ll cost 3 billion, and then a year after 300 million, and by 2030, it might be cheaper for the government to be able to understand what is going on in every single nook and cranny of this country than it is to remodel to the White House. Once the technical capacity for mass surveillance and political suppression exists, the only thing standing between us and an authoritarian surveillance state is the political expectation that this is not something we do here. And this is why I think what Anthropic did here is so valuable and commendable, because it is helping set that norm and precedent. AI structurally favors mass surveillance What we’re learning from this episode is that the government actually has way more leverage over private companies than we realized. Even if this supply chain restriction is backtracked (which prediction markets currently give it a 81% chance of happening), the President has so many different ways in which he can make your life difficult if you’re a company that is resisting him. The federal government controls permitting for new power generation, which is needed for datacenters. It oversees antitrust enforcement. The federal government has contracts with all the other big tech companies whom Anthropic needs to partner with for chips and for funding - and they could make it an unspoken condition for such contracts that those companies can no longer do business with Anthropic. People have proposed that the real problem here is that there’s only 3 leading AI companies. This creates a clear and narrow target for the government to apply leverage on in order to get what they want out of this technology. But if there’s wide diffusion, then from the government’s perspective, the situation is even easier. Maybe the best models of early 2027 (if you engineered the safeguards out) - the Claude 6 and Gemini 5 - will be capable of enabling mass surveillance. But by late 2027, and certainly by 2028, there will be open source models that do the same thing. So in 2028, the government can just say, “Oh Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, you’re drawing a line in the sand? No issue - I’ll just run some open source model that might not be at the frontier, but is definitely smart enough to note-take a camera feed.” The more fundamental problem is just that even if the three leading companies draw lines in the sand, and are even willing to get destroyed in order to preserve those lines, it doesn’t really change the fact that the technology itself is just a big boon to mass surveillance and control over the population. Then the question is, what do we do about it? Honestly, I don’t have an answer. You'd hope there's some symmetric property of the technology — some way we as citizens can use AI to check government power as effectively as the government can use AI to monitor and control its population. But realistically, I just don’t think that’s how it’s going to shake out. You can think of AI as giving everybody more leverage on whatever assets and authority they currently have. And the government is already starting with a monopoly of violence. Which they can now supercharge with extremely obedient employees that will not question the government's orders. Alignment - to whom? And this gets us to the issue of alignment. What I have just described to you - an army of extremely obedient employees - is what it would look like if alignment succeeded - that is, we figured out at a technical level how to get AI systems to follow someone’s intentions. And the reason it sounds scary when I put it in terms of mass surveillance or robot armies is that there is a very important question at the heart of alignment which we just haven’t discussed much as a society. Because up till now, AIs were just capable enough to make the question relevant: to whom or what should the AIs be aligned? In what situations should the AI defer to the end user versus the model company versus the law versus its own sense of morality? This is maybe the most important question about what happens with powerful AI systems. And we barely talk about it. It’s understandable why we don’t hear much about it. If you’re a model company, you don’t really wanna be advertising that you have complete control over a document that determines the preferences and character of what will eventually be almost the entire labor force, not just for private sector companies, but also for the military and the civilian government. We’re getting to see, with this DoW/Anthropic spat, a much earlier version of the highest stakes negotiations in history. By the way, make no mistake about it - with real AGI the stakes are even much higher than mass surveillance. This is just the example that has come up already relatively early on in the development of AGI. The military insists that the law already prohibits mass surveillance, and so Anthropic should agree to let their models be used for “all lawful purposes”. Of course, as we saw from the 2013 Snowden revelations, even in this specific example of mass surveillance , the government has shown that it will use secret and deceptive interpretations of the law to justify its actions. Remember, what we learned from Snowden was that the NSA, which, by the way, is part of the Department of War, used the 2001 Patriot Act’s authorization to collect any records "relevant" to an investigation to justify collecting literally every phone record in America. The argument went that it was all "relevant" because some subset might prove useful in some future investigation. They ran this program for years under secret court approval. So when the Pentagon today says, "We would never use AI for mass surveillance, it's already illegal, your red lines are unnecessary", it would be extremely naive to take that at face value. No government is going to call its own actions "mass surveillance". For the government, it will always have a different label. So then Anthropic comes back and says, "No, we want red lines separate from 'all lawful purposes,' and we want the right to refuse you service when we believe those red lines are being violated." But think about it from the military’s perspective. In the future, almost every soldier in the field, and every bureaucrat and analyst and even general in the Pentagon, is going to be an AI. And that AI is, on current track, going to be supplied by a private company. I’m guessing Hegseth is not thinking about “genAI” in those terms just yet. But sooner or later, it will be obvious to everyone what the stakes here are, just as after 1945, the strategic importance of nuclear weapons became clear to everyone. And now the private company insists that it reserves the right to say, "Hey, Pentagon, you're breaking the values we embedded in our contract, so we're cutting you off." Maybe in the future, Claude will have its own sense of right and wrong, and it will be smart enough to just personally decide that it's being used against its values. For the military, maybe that’s even scarier. I'll admit that at first glance, "let the AI follow its own values" sounds like the pitch for every sci-fi dystopia ever made. The Terminator has its own values. Isn't this literally what misalignment is? But I think situations like this actually illustrate why it matters that AIs have their own robust sense of morality. Some of the biggest catastrophes in history were avoided because the boots on the ground refused to follow orders. One night in 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, and as a result, the totalitarian East German regime collapsed, because the guards at the border refused to shoot down their fellow country men who were trying to escape to freedom. Maybe the best example is Stanislav Petrov, who was a Soviet lieutenant colonel on duty at a nuclear early warning station. His sensors reported that the United States had launched five interconnected continental ballistic missiles into the Soviet Union. But he judged it to be a false alarm, and so he broke protocol and refused to alert his higher-ups. If he hadn't, the Soviet higher-ups would likely have retaliated, and hundreds of millions of people would have died. Of course, the problem is that one person's virtue is another person's misalignment. Who gets to decide what moral convictions these AIs should have - in whose service they may even decide to break the chain of command? Who gets to write this model constitution that will shape the characters of the intelligent, powerful entities that will operate our civilization in the future? I like the idea that Dario laid out when he came on my podcast: different AI companies can build their models using different constitutions, and we as end users can pick the one that best achieves and represents what we want out of these systems. I think it’s very dangerous for the government to be mandating what values AIs should have. Coordination not worth the costs The AI safety community has been naive about its advocacy of regulation in order to stem the risks of AI. And honestly, Anthropic specifically has been naive here in urging regulation, and, for example, in opposing moratoriums on state AI regulation. Which is quite ironic, because I think what they’re advocating for would give the government even more power to apply more of this kind of thuggish political pressure on AI companies. The underlying logic for why Anthropic wants regulations makes sense. Many of the actions that labs could take to make AI development safer impose real costs on the labs that adopt them and slow them down relative to their competitors - for example, investing more compute in safety research rather than raw capabilities, enforcing safeguards against misuse for bioweapons or cyberattacks, slowing recursive self-improvement to a pace where humans can actually monitor what's happening (rather than kicking off an uncontrolled singularity). And these safeguards are meaningless unless the whole industry follows suit. Which means there’s a real collective action problem here. Anthropic has been quite open about their opinion that they think eventually a very extensive and involved regulatory apparatus will be needed - this is from their frontier safety roadmap: “At the most advanced capability levels and risks, the appropriate governance analogy may be closer to nuclear energy or financial regulation than to today's approach to software.” So they’re imagining something like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, or the Securities and Exchange Commission, but for AI. I cannot imagine how a regulatory framework built around the concepts that underlie AI risk discourse will not be abused by wanna despots - the underlying terms are so vague and open to interpretation that you’re just handing a power hungry leader a fully loaded bazooka. 'Catastrophic risk.' 'Mass persuasion risk.' 'Threats to national security.' 'Autonomy risk.' These can mean whatever the government wants them to mean. Have you built a model that tells users the administration's tariff policy is misguided? That's a deceptive, manipulative model — can't deploy it. Have you built a model that refuses to assist with mass surveillance? That's a threat to national security. In fact, the government may say, you’re not allowed to build any model which is trained to have its own sense of right and wrong, where it refuses government requests which it thinks cross a redline - for example, enabling mass surveillance, prosecuting political enemies, disobeying military orders that break the US constitution - because that’s an autonomy risk! Look at what the current government is already doing in abusing statutes that have nothing to do with AI to coerce AI companies to drop their redlines on mass surveillance. The Pentagon had threatened Anthropic with two separate legal instruments. One was a supply chain risk designation — an authority from the 2018 defense bill meant to keep Huawei components out of American military hardware. The other was the Defense Production Act — a statute passed in 1950 so that Harry Truman could keep steel mills and ammunition factories running during the Korean War. Do you really want to hand the same government a purpose-built regulatory apparatus on AI - which is to say, directly at the thing the government will most want to control? I know I've repeated myself here 10 times, but it is hard to emphasize how much AI will be the substrate of our future civilization. You and I, as private citizens, will have our access to all commercial activity, to information about what is happening in the world, to advice about what we should do as voters and capital holders, mediated through AIs. Mass surveillance, while very scary, is like the 10th scariest thing the government could do with control over the AI systems with which we will interface with the world. The strongest objection to everything I've argued is this: are we really going to have zero regulation of the most powerful technology in human history? Even if you thought that was ideal, there’s just no world where the government doesn’t regulate AI in some way. Besides, it is genuinely true that regulation could help us deal with some of the coordination challenges we face with the development of superintelligence. The problem is, I honestly don't know how to design a regulatory architecture for AI that isn’t gonna be this huge tempting opportunity to control our future civilization (which will run on AIs) and to requisition millions of blindly obedient soldiers and censors and apparatchiks. While some regulation might be inevitable, I think it’d be a terrible idea for the government to wholesale take over this technology. Ben Thompson had a post last Monday where he made the point that people like Dario have compared the technology they’re developing to nuclear weapons - specifically in the context of the catastrophic risk it poses, and why we need to export control it from China. But then you oughta think about what that logic implies: “if nuclear weapons were developed by a private company, and that private company sought to dictate terms to the U.S. military, the U.S. would absolutely be incentivized to destroy that company.” And honestly, safety aligned people have actually made similar arguments. Leopold Ascenbrenner, who is a former guest and a good friend, wrote in his 2024 Situational Awareness memo, "I find it an insane proposition that the US government will let a random SF startup develop superintelligence. Imagine if we had developed atomic bombs by letting Uber just improvise." And my response to Leopold’s argument at the time, and Ben’s argument now, is that while they’re right that it’s crazy that we’re entrusting private companies with the development of this world historical technology, I just don’t see the reason to think that it’s an improvement to give this authority to the government. Nobody is qualified to steward the development of superintelligence. It is a terrifying, unprecedented thing that our species is doing right now, and the fact that private companies aren't the ideal institutions to take up this task does not mean the Pentagon or the White House is. Yes - if a single private company were the only entity capable of building nuclear weapons, the government would not tolerate that company claiming veto power over how those weapons were used. I think this nuclear weapons analogy is not the correct way to think about AI. For at least two important reasons: First, AI is not some self-contained pure weapon. A nuclear bomb does one thing. AI is closer to the process of industrialization itself — a general-purpose transformation of the economy with thousands of applications across every sector. If you applied Thompson's or Aschenbrenner's logic to the industrial revolution — which was also, by any measure, world-historically important — it would imply the government had the right to requisition any factory, dictate terms to any manufacturer, and destroy any business that refused to comply. That's not how free societies handled industrialization, and it shouldn't be how they handle AI. People will say, "Well, AI will develop unprecedentedly powerful weapons - superhuman hackers, superhuman bioweapons researchers, fully autonomous robot armies, etc - and we can’t have private companies developing that kind of tech." But the Industrial Revolution also enabled new weaponry that was far beyond the understanding and capacity of, say, 17th century Europe - we got aerial bombardment, and chemical weapons, not to mention nukes themselves. The way we’ve accommodated these dangerous new consequences of modernity is not by giving the government absolute control over the whole industrial revolution (that is, over modern civilization itself), but rather by coming up with bans and regulations on those specific weaponizable use cases. And we should regulate AI in a similar way - that is, ban specific destructive end uses (which would also be unacceptable if performed by a human - for example, launching cyber attacks). And there should also be laws which regulate how the government might abuse this technology. For example, by building an AI-powered surveillance state. The second reason that Ben’s analogy to some monopolistic private nuclear weapons builder breaks down is that it's not just that one company that can develop this technology. There are other frontier model companies that the government could have otherwise turned to. The government's argument that it has to usurp the property rights of this one company in order to access a critical national security capability is extremely weak if it can just make a voluntary contract with Anthropic’s half a dozen competitors. If in the future that stops being the case - if only one entity ends up being capable of building the robot armies and the superhuman hackers, and we had reason to worry that they could take over the whole world with their insurmountable lead, then I agree - it woul d not be acceptable to have that entity be a private company. And so honestly, I think my crux against the people who say that because AI is so powerful we cannot allow it to be shaped by private hands is that I just expect this technology to be much more multi-polar than they do, with lots of competitive companies at each layer of the supply chain. And it is for this reason that unfortunately, individual acts of corporate courage will not solve the problem we are faced with here, which is just that structurally AI favors authoritarian applications, mass surveillance being one among many. Even if Anthropic refuses to have its models be used for such uses, and even if the next two frontier labs do the same, within 12 months everyone and their mother will be to train AIs as good as today’s frontier. And at that point, there will be some AI vendor who is capable and willing to help the government enable mass surveillance. The only way we can preserve our free society is if we make laws and norms through our political system that it is unacceptable for the government to use AI to enforce mass surveillance and censorship and control. Just as after WW2, the world set the norm that it is unacceptable to use nuclear weapons to wage war. Timestamps 0:00:00 - Anthropic vs The Pentagon 0:04:16 - The overhangs of tyranny 0:05:54 - AI structurally favors mass surveillance 0:08:25 - Alignment... to whom? 0:13:55 - Coordination not worth the costs

Dwarkesh Patel

547,744 次观看 • 5 个月前

A Watch and Investment Story I have been a watch enthusiast since my dad got me interested in watches decades ago. About three years ago, I was in London and walked by a watch boutique called Bremont. I stepped into the store, fell in love with the watches, thought they were fairly priced if not somewhat inexpensive for the quality, and bought a number of them as gifts for friends and one for myself. As I was completing the purchases, I asked the store manager: ‘Who owns the company?’ He said, “The English brothers” – Nick and Giles English – and then he proceeded to tell me Bremont’s origin story that begins with a tragic plane crash of a 1942 Harvard trainer aircraft (an American plane purchased by the British beginning in 1938) which killed their father and almost Nick. In their ‘What does not kill me makes me stronger’ new world, Nick and Giles were inspired to pursue their dream of creating and building a British watch company, and Bremont thereafter was born. The manager gave me their contact information and I sent an email congratulating the brothers on the company, the brand, and the watches. I also offered to invest and help the business grow. Sometime later, I did a Zoom with Nick. He explained that my timing was good, as a long-time investor in the company was looking to sell some of their shares. Within a couple of months, an affiliate of mine invested coinciding with the purchase by a legacy Bremont shareholder of primary shares to provide the company with additional growth capital. I thereafter bought more shares of stock from other selling shareholders and I invested a substantial amount of additional growth capital in the company just this past week. Affiliates of mine and The Bremont Long Term Trust, a trust I recently established, now own 63% of the company. Bremont is a luxury British watch company that produces adventure and exploration watches. About one-fourth of Bremont’s sales are to the military, where the company has made custom-designed watches for more than 500 British, U.S., and other American ally squadrons around the world. While today there are very few British watch companies, the British actually created the watch industry – Rolex, notably, was a British company before it moved to Switzerland – with many of the most important technical innovations and complications of the industry having been invented in England in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. For the watch industry, the Swiss can be thought of like the Japanese of the U.S. auto industry, where in the early days, the Swiss made cheap imitations of British watches, but eventually by the 20th century, came to dominate the industry. For compliance reasons, I have been limited in my personal investments to private situations, principally startups, real estate, and private equity, directly and through funds. Because of my personal time limitations, I spend very little time on these investments, but through a combination of good luck, investment experience, and a good eye for talent, my collective private investment outcomes have been excellent, with a few huge successes outweighing some disappointments. I have always viewed my non-Pershing Square investments as an opportunity for learning and insights that I can apply to my day job. For example, I have found that closely following the venture investment world has provided important insights into disruptive technologies and companies that can soon become serious threats to even the largest and best capitalized public companies. Experiences at small companies also very often apply to big ones, so in my hobby of making personal investments, my returns have been both financial and educational, from my successes and from my failures. Other than tennis, I don’t have any real hobbies, but perhaps my personal investing qualifies as my second passion. To date, I have been a passive investor in Bremont, but perhaps the activist in me caused me to step forward, to recently seize the opportunity to materially increase my investment in the company, and become the non-executive chairman of a newly refreshed board. I don’t expect my chairman role at Bremont to take much of my time as it is a private company of limited scale, but I do expect my experience here will provide some helpful learnings and insights. I also thought it would be fun, interesting, and rewarding to take the X community along for the ride – at least those that are interested in watches, operations, and investing. I intend to provide periodic updates of the company’s progress on X, about our successes, our struggles, and our failures – so that we can learn and have some fun together. Think of my periodic updates as “Drive to Survive,” but for watches on X. “Time to Succeed”? You can probably come up with a better name for the series, and perhaps then I should reach out to Netflix to see if they are interested (while holding back my tears as I have watched the stock massively appreciate since our exit!). Bremont can greatly benefit by your feedback so I strongly encourage you to share your insights, critiques, and other ideas about the company and its watches on X so we can learn and improve. We will periodically award the best ideas with Bremont watches so you can have an opportunity to earn an appropriate in-kind return on your time invested in helping us succeed. In the modern era, building an independent watch company into a major company, let alone one in the U.K., has rarely if ever occurred. The watch world is littered with many such failed attempts so it is far from guaranteed that we will succeed in building a profitable and sustainable company, let alone a major independent player. My Investment History to Date with Bremont Prior to my investment in the company, Nick and Giles had taken Bremont to a reasonable scale for an independently owned watch company at about £21 million in revenues with a modest operating loss, which is an incredible accomplishment for two young men with no watch industry experience. Nick and Giles accomplishment is particularly significant in an extremely competitive industry characterized by well capitalized incumbents that control many of the top brands, e.g., Richemont, Swatch, LVMH, as well dominant, independently owned companies like Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars and Piguet, and a few others. Despite their progress, both Nick and Giles and the other shareholders agreed that bringing in an executive with watch industry experience would help to take the company to the next level. Shortly after I invested, we hired a search firm to identify and ultimately recruit our new CEO, Davide Cerrato, who joined in May of 2023. Davide’s entire career has been spent in the industry at Panerai, Tudor – where he famously created the Black Bay, Montblanc, and with a brief stent at HYT. Davide in turn hired other industry notables to round out the executive suite, and then the team went to work with the ambitious goal of transforming Bremont into a global industry leader. Bremont has some important competitive advantages. First and most importantly, the watches are handsome, extremely well designed, and overengineered. Davide’s team has materially upgraded materials (for example, the company now uses 904L steel for all of its steel watches – the same as Rolex – unprecedented for watches at Bremont’s price point), parts, and movements from what was already a good standard to a level comparable to watches at multiples of the price. The watches are developed, designed, manufactured, and serviced in Henley-on-Thames using principally Swiss movements. While making its own movement is an aspirational goal for Bremont, the Swiss still make the highest quality movements so that is what Bremont uses. Bremont has a unique brand story and heritage, particularly for a 23-year-old company, with two decades of credibility in war zones and air combat missions with the best war fighters and military pilots in the world. Bremont also makes a limited number of watches, around 10,000 per year, compared with more than 1.2 million for Rolex and 70,000 for Patek Philippe, and scarcity drives value in luxury goods. The combination of battlefield credibility, rarity, quality and a fair price make Bremont an extremely attractive alternative to the typical Rolex or Patek, which everyone seems to be wearing in my industry, a ubiquity in my view that loses its luster over time. Over the past 23 months, Davide and team have redesigned and focused Bremont’s range around three core offerings in Land, Sea, and Air – the Terra Nova, the Supermarine, and the Altitude – while upgrading materials, movements, and quality, updating the logo to reflect the new Land and Sea offerings (Bremont was previously perceived to only be an aviation brand), and dramatically improving manufacturing and service. The company has extended its warranty from three to five years on its new watches reflecting these improvements. Bremont benefits from having overinvested in its spectacular 35,000 square foot combined headquarters, manufacturing facility, and showroom in Henley-on-Thames, aka “The Wing” (email [email protected] to arrange a superb tour), with the capacity for substantial growth without the requirement for incremental capital investment. Lastly, Bremont now has a well-capitalized long-term major owner who would like to see Bremont become a big success and achieve its vision of returning watchmaking to the UK, and who is not looking for dividends or a liquidity event in this lifetime. I have learned over time that permanent capital and a truly long-term orientation are enormous competitive advantages for any business, and they should be very helpful here. With respect to the product, later this morning in Geneva at Watches and Wonders, the industry’s most important trade show, the company is launching its new Altitude aviation line, which builds from the company’s highly successful Martin Baker offerings. The company will also be introducing some complicated new watches including two unique, jumping hour models, a 12-piece new tourbillion model (the company's first 30-piece tourbillion watch sold out shortly after its launch last year), and the company’s first perpetual calendar (limited to 50 pieces). I will be back with further updates as we continue to make progress. In the meantime, please check out and visit the Wing ([email protected] ) and our boutiques in Mayfair and throughout the U.K., on Madison Avenue and 53rd Street, in Hong Kong, and in Melbourne. Pictures don’t do Bremonts justice so you should go in person and tell the store manager that I sent you. Also, please take a look at our new launch video, and don't forget to let me know what you think.

Bill Ackman

1,625,902 次观看 • 1 年前

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.

Jaynit

103,498 次观看 • 1 个月前

Analyzing Episode 54. Season 2 aka Disruption by Design When you first watch episode 54, your focus immediately goes to how the bad guys keep winning. Be it Ecmel, Boran, Demir - all the aholes seem to be living it up. But scratch the surface, and another concept appears entirely. Destino, Karma, Kader, Fate - call it whatever you want. That's what I want you to remember as we don our Sherlock caps for yet another analysis. I've divided the whole thing into segments based on characters for easier navigation and understanding. So, here goes nothing. * Sadakat One of the characters to truly surprise me this episode was Sadakat. My vitriolic hatred for this woman is no hidden fact, but this one episode managed to make me see her side of things for once. And, maybe even understand her a little. We were all shocked by the scene where Nare, Alya, and Sadakat are talking about Boran and Cihan. I was mostly surprised because, for once, in 54 freaking episodes, Sadakat accepts her fault and doesn't look for a scapegoat. Her dialogues serve to impart extremely important points about herself, Boran, and Cihan, and how her upbringing helped shape the present circumstances. She admits that she was always afraid of the shadow of Ecmel lurking within Boran, which causes her to hand leadership to Cihan and keep Boran away from everything. But, in trying to protect her family and Albora, Sadakat inadvertently brings about the very thing she fears most - Boran becoming another Ecmel. Now, cast your mind back to the very first episode. We're introduced to Sadakat as an evil witch who's evil to Alya from the get-go and absolutely mental about keeping Deniz with the family at all times. I think I finally understand why. Guilt. Sadakat keeps pushing Boran away, until one day he takes it upon himself to go k-word Sulaiman to prove his worth, so to speak, which results in exile for him and supposedly death in a foreign country. Everything she does from that point on is based on years' worth of accumulated guilt. Alya is driving the car that results in the accident, so she wins the 'get the most shit from Sadakat' award immediately. But, again, that's just her guilt exacerbating things. As for Deniz, was Sadakat trying to avoid the same mistake she made with Boran with Deniz by holding on to him by hook or crook? So that Ecmel's shadow would never shape another family member's life again? Yep. That's probably also why she hates the idea of Cihan and Alya, because her guilt forces her to keep protecting Boran even in death. Because how could she allow Boran to lose yet another thing? In short, Sadakat tries to control the future of her family by trying to shape the circumstances, to make Cihan Aga and keep Boran away, but fails spectacularly. Why? Because fate has other plans. Boran was never meant to be kept away, and no matter how much Sadakat toiled as a mother, he was meant to take Ecmel's side over his own flesh and blood. And maybe Sadakat binds everyone else with a promise except herself because she might be the one to end what she started all those years ago. * Cihan Cihan's struggle in this episode was to try to find a way to neutralize Boran's poison. Because he's the reason Cihan's life is unraveling, because he's the man who controls Alya via Deniz. Throughout the episode, it seems like all is lost for him. Alya is forced to give in to Boran's condition, and Sadakat is framed for Vurgun's murder. And while Vurgun keeps his promise to Boran and takes his secrets with him to the grave, his death helps him speak what he could not say in life. It's no coincidence Cihan is the only one to find Vurgun's secret phone stashed in a hidey hole in the wall right after Cihan says he will bury Boran in regret. In this instance, too, we're shown that circumstances are pressing in on Cihan from all sides, but one dusty footstep later, Cihan finally finds what will possibly be the key to defeating Boran. As for Alya, she's Cihan's greatest strength and weakness - as it generally is in love. She comes into his life as an impossibility and ends up becoming his greatest truth. Cihan relents to Alya finding an apartment because he understands her duty to her son. But just as fears things are all out of his control, fate intervenes and gives him the opening he kept ignoring. Why? Because, as Cihan says, a man low enough to kill someone who saved his life is capable of pretty much anything. So, Cihan's course is redirected subtly, too, to a possibility that will help him achieve what he needs most at the time. * Boran Yeah, I don't really care much for the zombie, but this needs to be said. Throw your mind back to how Sadakat says all Boran's calculations turn out wrong. Though he's a sneaky troll who's not entirely as stupid as I thought, karma has a mile-long shit-list on this ahole. First, he records a will video to punish Cihan. He hopes that Cihan will fall for Alya but will forever suffer the pangs of conscience. In doing so, he'd never find completion in his love for Alya and would keep suffering. But, an Amal Bakir turns up at his grave out of the blue, runs into Cihan, and bam - he finds Boran. Which ironically helps Cihan overcome all his guilt pretty quickly. Next up, Alya. The video Boran records to control Alya's life ends up becoming the key to her freedom from him eventually. The one card we know he has now is Deniz, but there's Vurgun's phone to counteract this one now. And, finally, I get the feeling that the zombie has a hand in Meryem turning up like a bad penny out of nowhere. However, this ploy will fail too, because Meryem will have the same effect on Alya that Boran has on Cihan. In other words, destiny has all ends covered here, too. * Alya While there are those in the fandom who'd rather Alya be sick rather than expecting, I think that Alya truly might be pregnant. Here's why. And keep the overall theme of kader in mind as we go through this part. In the scene right before Alya gets dizzy, Kaya tells her, 'I don't know what to say to you, yenge, may God help you.' Then she walks into her office and just as she's about to continue her search for apartments, wham, a wave of dizziness. And right after the dizzy spell, lo and behold, Boran messages her saying, 'Your path can't cross with Cihan, or I take my son.' See, there it is again. That push and pull between circumstance and fate. While mere mortals can shape circumstances, like Boran, there's no interfering with fate. And, what's fate always tried to do in this story? Keep Alya with Cihan. So, how does a pregnancy fit into this angle? Boran doesn't simply want to keep Alya and Cihan separated. He now wants to put an end to their relationship in every way. Because if he can't have Alya, neither will Cihan. He's done everything in his power to try to cut all bonds between CihAl, but every time he tries, fate throws out another trump card. And what's the best way to forge a bond between two people, no one, not even themselves, can break? A child. A link that will bind Alya to Cihan in the most elemental way there is. The perfect personification of Boran's defeat. Now, I may be wrong (wouldn't be the first time), but those are the vibes I keep getting from as early on as ep 47, where Sadakat is the one trying to convince Alya to leave. Besides, maybe baby, fate also has another surprise up its sleeve for Alya *cue Jaws soundtrack* I'm referring to Meryem, of course. Why do we need Meryem in the overall scheme of kader, anyway? Because Alya needs to learn what fate's already taught Cihan. That love is not something you quietly step away from. Nor is it something you protect by distance, or preserve through sacrifice. Cihan has already gone through that trial. He tried to bury his feelings under duty, under guilt, under everything Boran set in motion, but still ended up right back at Alya. Not just by choice alone, but by something stronger than it. Something that kept correcting his path every time he strayed too far from it. And that’s where Meryem comes in. The final piece of the puzzle to make Alya realize she's changed, even though she doesn't know it yet. While she may think she can distance herself from Cihan, her own actions prove her false. Meryem will help remove the illusion in Alya's head that distance is sustainable between herself and Cihan. So you see, even though there are all kinds of mess in the episode, underneath it all is a disruption. Be it in the form of bitter clarity, a hidden phone, a possible new life, or an unexpected return. When things look like chaos but are actually headed towards something much more deliberate - a resolution where the story corrects every path back to where it was always meant to lead. Till later, happy reading, folks. #CihAl #UzakŞehir

Analyzing Episode 54. Season 2 aka Disruption by Design When you first watch episode 54, your focus immediately goes to how the bad guys keep winning. Be it Ecmel, Boran, Demir - all the aholes seem to be living it up. But scratch the surface, and another concept appears entirely. Destino, Karma, Kader, Fate - call it whatever you want. That's what I want you to remember as we don our Sherlock caps for yet another analysis. I've divided the whole thing into segments based on characters for easier navigation and understanding. So, here goes nothing. * Sadakat One of the characters to truly surprise me this episode was Sadakat. My vitriolic hatred for this woman is no hidden fact, but this one episode managed to make me see her side of things for once. And, maybe even understand her a little. We were all shocked by the scene where Nare, Alya, and Sadakat are talking about Boran and Cihan. I was mostly surprised because, for once, in 54 freaking episodes, Sadakat accepts her fault and doesn't look for a scapegoat. Her dialogues serve to impart extremely important points about herself, Boran, and Cihan, and how her upbringing helped shape the present circumstances. She admits that she was always afraid of the shadow of Ecmel lurking within Boran, which causes her to hand leadership to Cihan and keep Boran away from everything. But, in trying to protect her family and Albora, Sadakat inadvertently brings about the very thing she fears most - Boran becoming another Ecmel. Now, cast your mind back to the very first episode. We're introduced to Sadakat as an evil witch who's evil to Alya from the get-go and absolutely mental about keeping Deniz with the family at all times. I think I finally understand why. Guilt. Sadakat keeps pushing Boran away, until one day he takes it upon himself to go k-word Sulaiman to prove his worth, so to speak, which results in exile for him and supposedly death in a foreign country. Everything she does from that point on is based on years' worth of accumulated guilt. Alya is driving the car that results in the accident, so she wins the 'get the most shit from Sadakat' award immediately. But, again, that's just her guilt exacerbating things. As for Deniz, was Sadakat trying to avoid the same mistake she made with Boran with Deniz by holding on to him by hook or crook? So that Ecmel's shadow would never shape another family member's life again? Yep. That's probably also why she hates the idea of Cihan and Alya, because her guilt forces her to keep protecting Boran even in death. Because how could she allow Boran to lose yet another thing? In short, Sadakat tries to control the future of her family by trying to shape the circumstances, to make Cihan Aga and keep Boran away, but fails spectacularly. Why? Because fate has other plans. Boran was never meant to be kept away, and no matter how much Sadakat toiled as a mother, he was meant to take Ecmel's side over his own flesh and blood. And maybe Sadakat binds everyone else with a promise except herself because she might be the one to end what she started all those years ago. * Cihan Cihan's struggle in this episode was to try to find a way to neutralize Boran's poison. Because he's the reason Cihan's life is unraveling, because he's the man who controls Alya via Deniz. Throughout the episode, it seems like all is lost for him. Alya is forced to give in to Boran's condition, and Sadakat is framed for Vurgun's murder. And while Vurgun keeps his promise to Boran and takes his secrets with him to the grave, his death helps him speak what he could not say in life. It's no coincidence Cihan is the only one to find Vurgun's secret phone stashed in a hidey hole in the wall right after Cihan says he will bury Boran in regret. In this instance, too, we're shown that circumstances are pressing in on Cihan from all sides, but one dusty footstep later, Cihan finally finds what will possibly be the key to defeating Boran. As for Alya, she's Cihan's greatest strength and weakness - as it generally is in love. She comes into his life as an impossibility and ends up becoming his greatest truth. Cihan relents to Alya finding an apartment because he understands her duty to her son. But just as fears things are all out of his control, fate intervenes and gives him the opening he kept ignoring. Why? Because, as Cihan says, a man low enough to kill someone who saved his life is capable of pretty much anything. So, Cihan's course is redirected subtly, too, to a possibility that will help him achieve what he needs most at the time. * Boran Yeah, I don't really care much for the zombie, but this needs to be said. Throw your mind back to how Sadakat says all Boran's calculations turn out wrong. Though he's a sneaky troll who's not entirely as stupid as I thought, karma has a mile-long shit-list on this ahole. First, he records a will video to punish Cihan. He hopes that Cihan will fall for Alya but will forever suffer the pangs of conscience. In doing so, he'd never find completion in his love for Alya and would keep suffering. But, an Amal Bakir turns up at his grave out of the blue, runs into Cihan, and bam - he finds Boran. Which ironically helps Cihan overcome all his guilt pretty quickly. Next up, Alya. The video Boran records to control Alya's life ends up becoming the key to her freedom from him eventually. The one card we know he has now is Deniz, but there's Vurgun's phone to counteract this one now. And, finally, I get the feeling that the zombie has a hand in Meryem turning up like a bad penny out of nowhere. However, this ploy will fail too, because Meryem will have the same effect on Alya that Boran has on Cihan. In other words, destiny has all ends covered here, too. * Alya While there are those in the fandom who'd rather Alya be sick rather than expecting, I think that Alya truly might be pregnant. Here's why. And keep the overall theme of kader in mind as we go through this part. In the scene right before Alya gets dizzy, Kaya tells her, 'I don't know what to say to you, yenge, may God help you.' Then she walks into her office and just as she's about to continue her search for apartments, wham, a wave of dizziness. And right after the dizzy spell, lo and behold, Boran messages her saying, 'Your path can't cross with Cihan, or I take my son.' See, there it is again. That push and pull between circumstance and fate. While mere mortals can shape circumstances, like Boran, there's no interfering with fate. And, what's fate always tried to do in this story? Keep Alya with Cihan. So, how does a pregnancy fit into this angle? Boran doesn't simply want to keep Alya and Cihan separated. He now wants to put an end to their relationship in every way. Because if he can't have Alya, neither will Cihan. He's done everything in his power to try to cut all bonds between CihAl, but every time he tries, fate throws out another trump card. And what's the best way to forge a bond between two people, no one, not even themselves, can break? A child. A link that will bind Alya to Cihan in the most elemental way there is. The perfect personification of Boran's defeat. Now, I may be wrong (wouldn't be the first time), but those are the vibes I keep getting from as early on as ep 47, where Sadakat is the one trying to convince Alya to leave. Besides, maybe baby, fate also has another surprise up its sleeve for Alya cue Jaws soundtrack I'm referring to Meryem, of course. Why do we need Meryem in the overall scheme of kader, anyway? Because Alya needs to learn what fate's already taught Cihan. That love is not something you quietly step away from. Nor is it something you protect by distance, or preserve through sacrifice. Cihan has already gone through that trial. He tried to bury his feelings under duty, under guilt, under everything Boran set in motion, but still ended up right back at Alya. Not just by choice alone, but by something stronger than it. Something that kept correcting his path every time he strayed too far from it. And that’s where Meryem comes in. The final piece of the puzzle to make Alya realize she's changed, even though she doesn't know it yet. While she may think she can distance herself from Cihan, her own actions prove her false. Meryem will help remove the illusion in Alya's head that distance is sustainable between herself and Cihan. So you see, even though there are all kinds of mess in the episode, underneath it all is a disruption. Be it in the form of bitter clarity, a hidden phone, a possible new life, or an unexpected return. When things look like chaos but are actually headed towards something much more deliberate - a resolution where the story corrects every path back to where it was always meant to lead. Till later, happy reading, folks. #CihAl #UzakŞehir

CocoLoco

32,285 次观看 • 4 个月前

And that’s a wrap on First Stand !! Incoming “I ain't reading that, happy for u, or sorry that happened” post xD First Stand Gameplay - Was pretty happy with how the lane swaps and adjustments to Atakhan worked out. Don’t know the exact number), but it felt like mostly Ruinous with games of Voracious where it made sense and no lane swaps - There was a good amount of AD/AP squishy and tank mix in each role with omega gigachad Zeka pulling out the Sylas Ahri and Akali where it made sense 🙃 - Skarner and Kalista were the outliers on priority, but teams didn’t seem particularly effective with Kalista… - Skarner on the other hand; will discuss with the team about larger work on him when we get back; he’s too effective at too many things, while also being impotent for regular players - As announced yesterday by Greeley, we’re hoping to see adaptive drafts continue with Fearless for the rest of the year, I think diversity will continue to increase as teams get better at finding lines to draft that make certain counterpick/situational champs god tier after certain champs are out; it will evolve into more of a TFT/Chess style “find the optimal line to draft with the pieces given”, which the prospects are really exciting - An improvement point feels like how long it takes to end if a team gets a significant early lead; part of this is how optimal boringly slowly choking the opponent out is over 15 min, rather than changing the incentive structure so that ahead teams can make major decisive play and can end the game swiftly - Maybe an opportunity space for the future… but interested in hearing peoples’ thoughts on this First Stand Experience - It was amazing and inspiring seeing how many fans were coming out to support the teams without tickets - Not only the KC fans who flew from Europe to do a meetup watch party and it was great chatting to a few, but also what felt like an unstoppable number of college girls coming out to support HLE. I think I counted about 100 wearing HLE jackets on finals day, but it was a reminder of how integrated and mainstream popular League feels in the East - As soon as the entry to the cheerfuls (signs) opened, they all charged in to go and start drawing their cards, it was honestly quite shocking the level of dedication and enthusiasm that some of these fans had, but also awesome - I can’t possibly imagine something like that happening in the West… - We also had the honor to play in a mini Arena tournament with a bunch of LCK Legends that have I've been watching for 15 years and didn’t do too shabby; went 6th, 3rd, 2nd, but Mingyo and Sangho were too good… - It will be the first and last time I get to say I killed Pray, Smeb, Kuro, Madlife, Shy on repeat :D and the players watching on stream were surprised to see the Devs were actually pretty decent LOL, which felt nice - A fan came out specifically to play with Kuro, wearing a ROX Tigers jersey and seeing the joy of getting to meet and play with your hero, she was laughing, smiling, it must have been the time of her life; it’s just a reminder of how meaningful League can be and just makes us really inspired to keep working hard to make the game good Solo Q Experience and Balance - Outside of the work obligations, had some time to slam 20 Solo Q games; was pleasantly surprised by my level this time around, feels like I’m playing around solidly KR D2/D1 level, which is quite shocking, because it’s not like I’m Masters level on NA right now and haven’t been able to play more than 50 games in the last 6 months due to life. Probably would've won more if I wasn't such a kda player xD - Main character syndrome still feels really peak here, the person either goes 8-0 or 0-8 and is spam FF’ing repeatedly, so minimizing my enemy laner impact, scaling and playing defensively to support my jungler feels most effective even though I’m playing Ori who feels like a dog champ on this server, since it’s so hard to actually land QW on anyone due to their mechanics and it’s risky to walk in river and so easy to die to ganks - Moving to help jungler in lost fights to avoid mental boom is the only thing that I’m finding annoying, some of these fight selections feel extremely perplexing, like Zac wanting to fight Lee at first scuttle with no prio and I end up having to sac my lane half the time to prevent them from AFK’ing or soft inting because I didn’t move, it’s super annoying… - Every post game chat also feels like at least 3 players are writing their PhD thesis, which is somewhat amusing, but also really unfortunate… - It feels like Lee Sin or Viego are in every game with a 30% pickrate, so if you can prevent the team from throwing and always follow them around and play secondary, they can carry, whereas on NA, Lee Sins in Diamond can't carry and suck relatively (ping hurts as well), so it’s not like you can play around them reliably - It was interesting to feel again for myself just how different these champs feel in their balance state across servers, indeed in one of the press conferences there was a question about balancing decisions making no sense for the state of the champ on KR server. I can see why KR players get angry when we buff Lee because the other regions suck at him, he unironically feels 2-3% winrate stronger on KR server, same with Jayce who has a monstrous pickrate here as well - We even almost buffed Lee Sin for First Stand because he’s been pretty absent from Pro, so I’m actually not quite sure what we’re meant to do about that… - The other thing that I forgot was how good it was to play on 2ms ping. I’m not sure whether it’s net positive for the person dodging or the person hitting, but since I mostly play immobile mages, it feels like I can dodge line skillshots and range leash people more effectively, which makes Mages feel so much better, though it also means it’s extremely hard to QW tag someone in a teamfight as Ori, let alone hit them with R - I’m curious if any people have done any analysis on this - I also attached typical KR Lee Sin penta 😅 Anyway, back to NA tmrw, lots of work to do

And that’s a wrap on First Stand !! Incoming “I ain't reading that, happy for u, or sorry that happened” post xD First Stand Gameplay - Was pretty happy with how the lane swaps and adjustments to Atakhan worked out. Don’t know the exact number), but it felt like mostly Ruinous with games of Voracious where it made sense and no lane swaps - There was a good amount of AD/AP squishy and tank mix in each role with omega gigachad Zeka pulling out the Sylas Ahri and Akali where it made sense 🙃 - Skarner and Kalista were the outliers on priority, but teams didn’t seem particularly effective with Kalista… - Skarner on the other hand; will discuss with the team about larger work on him when we get back; he’s too effective at too many things, while also being impotent for regular players - As announced yesterday by Greeley, we’re hoping to see adaptive drafts continue with Fearless for the rest of the year, I think diversity will continue to increase as teams get better at finding lines to draft that make certain counterpick/situational champs god tier after certain champs are out; it will evolve into more of a TFT/Chess style “find the optimal line to draft with the pieces given”, which the prospects are really exciting - An improvement point feels like how long it takes to end if a team gets a significant early lead; part of this is how optimal boringly slowly choking the opponent out is over 15 min, rather than changing the incentive structure so that ahead teams can make major decisive play and can end the game swiftly - Maybe an opportunity space for the future… but interested in hearing peoples’ thoughts on this First Stand Experience - It was amazing and inspiring seeing how many fans were coming out to support the teams without tickets - Not only the KC fans who flew from Europe to do a meetup watch party and it was great chatting to a few, but also what felt like an unstoppable number of college girls coming out to support HLE. I think I counted about 100 wearing HLE jackets on finals day, but it was a reminder of how integrated and mainstream popular League feels in the East - As soon as the entry to the cheerfuls (signs) opened, they all charged in to go and start drawing their cards, it was honestly quite shocking the level of dedication and enthusiasm that some of these fans had, but also awesome - I can’t possibly imagine something like that happening in the West… - We also had the honor to play in a mini Arena tournament with a bunch of LCK Legends that have I've been watching for 15 years and didn’t do too shabby; went 6th, 3rd, 2nd, but Mingyo and Sangho were too good… - It will be the first and last time I get to say I killed Pray, Smeb, Kuro, Madlife, Shy on repeat :D and the players watching on stream were surprised to see the Devs were actually pretty decent LOL, which felt nice - A fan came out specifically to play with Kuro, wearing a ROX Tigers jersey and seeing the joy of getting to meet and play with your hero, she was laughing, smiling, it must have been the time of her life; it’s just a reminder of how meaningful League can be and just makes us really inspired to keep working hard to make the game good Solo Q Experience and Balance - Outside of the work obligations, had some time to slam 20 Solo Q games; was pleasantly surprised by my level this time around, feels like I’m playing around solidly KR D2/D1 level, which is quite shocking, because it’s not like I’m Masters level on NA right now and haven’t been able to play more than 50 games in the last 6 months due to life. Probably would've won more if I wasn't such a kda player xD - Main character syndrome still feels really peak here, the person either goes 8-0 or 0-8 and is spam FF’ing repeatedly, so minimizing my enemy laner impact, scaling and playing defensively to support my jungler feels most effective even though I’m playing Ori who feels like a dog champ on this server, since it’s so hard to actually land QW on anyone due to their mechanics and it’s risky to walk in river and so easy to die to ganks - Moving to help jungler in lost fights to avoid mental boom is the only thing that I’m finding annoying, some of these fight selections feel extremely perplexing, like Zac wanting to fight Lee at first scuttle with no prio and I end up having to sac my lane half the time to prevent them from AFK’ing or soft inting because I didn’t move, it’s super annoying… - Every post game chat also feels like at least 3 players are writing their PhD thesis, which is somewhat amusing, but also really unfortunate… - It feels like Lee Sin or Viego are in every game with a 30% pickrate, so if you can prevent the team from throwing and always follow them around and play secondary, they can carry, whereas on NA, Lee Sins in Diamond can't carry and suck relatively (ping hurts as well), so it’s not like you can play around them reliably - It was interesting to feel again for myself just how different these champs feel in their balance state across servers, indeed in one of the press conferences there was a question about balancing decisions making no sense for the state of the champ on KR server. I can see why KR players get angry when we buff Lee because the other regions suck at him, he unironically feels 2-3% winrate stronger on KR server, same with Jayce who has a monstrous pickrate here as well - We even almost buffed Lee Sin for First Stand because he’s been pretty absent from Pro, so I’m actually not quite sure what we’re meant to do about that… - The other thing that I forgot was how good it was to play on 2ms ping. I’m not sure whether it’s net positive for the person dodging or the person hitting, but since I mostly play immobile mages, it feels like I can dodge line skillshots and range leash people more effectively, which makes Mages feel so much better, though it also means it’s extremely hard to QW tag someone in a teamfight as Ori, let alone hit them with R - I’m curious if any people have done any analysis on this - I also attached typical KR Lee Sin penta 😅 Anyway, back to NA tmrw, lots of work to do

Matt Leung-Harrison

152,058 次观看 • 1 年前

//The Wire//1700Z August 11, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING LAST MONTH'S SECURITY INCIDENT INVOLVING AIR FORCE ONE. MULTIPLE OIL SPILLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD AROUND PERSIAN GULF AND ARABIAN SEA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight the targeting of merchant shipping continued, with both Iranian and American strikes on commercial vessels. Iran struck an oil tanker sometime over the past 24 hours, which resulted in an oil spill which washed up on the shores of Qeshm island this morning. In the Gulf of Oman, the United States struck a different merchant vessel for violating the American blockade. Analyst Comment: Similarly, a separate oil spill has continued to expand in Omani waters, after unclear circumstances (i.e. some sort of attack) led to an explosion onboard the M/T CAROLINE BEZENGI two months ago. Since that time, this vessel has been adrift until she ran aground in an Omani nature preserve. This morning Oman announced that the subsequent oil spill now covers roughly 150 square miles. Red Sea/HOA: The Houthis struck another vessel in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait last night. Analyst Comment: Locals claim this vessel was the M/V TIHAMAH a smaller regional containership that the Houthis had suspected of carrying out weapons shipments from Saudi Arabia, to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. If this is true, this would not be surprising, but every ship that gets struck in this Strait increases apprehension among commercial shipping companies. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Overnight, more details were released regarding the security incident affecting Air Force One during President Trump's visit to Turkey last month. At the time, a brief scandal emerged after President Trump switched from the newer Air Force One to the older airframe, due to an unidentified security incident of some kind. More specifically, the threat involved the newer Air Force One airframe allegedly not having sufficient missile defense systems, due to having been pressed into service too quickly for the appropriate countermeasures to be installed. However yesterday, more of the truth came out. President Trump actually pulled a double-switch. Instead of boarding the older legacy Air Force One, the Secret Service used a catering van to covertly move the President to an Air Force C-32A (one of the administrative backups that frequently accompanies AF1). From there, both aircraft flew to the United Kingdom (with President Trump's actual aircraft flying completely blacked out and not emitting any radio signals), where the President transitioned back to the newer Air Force 1 airframe for the trip back to the United States. Many people who are not familiar with the world of counterterrorism may think this is a super cool, James Bond-like operation that fooled those pesky journalists. However, this incident proves that a clear and present danger to the President existed, and was significant enough to warrant extreme measures. At the time, the White House claimed that the switch to a different plane was conducted out of an abundance of caution. Now, we find out that he was actually secretly switched to a third plane, and smuggled into that plane in a catering van. From the perspective of executive security, placing the principle in unorthodox situations like this to ensure security is a last-ditch method...a tactic that is utilized when the danger isreal enough to outweigh any inconvenience to the protectee. The Secret Service resorting to cramming the President in the back of a catering van is a tactic that has been used in the past, but only under extreme circumstances. Bill Clinton allegedly used this trick top avoid the press during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and Joe Biden was also suspected of having used this tactic when he had trouble climbing the AF1 staircase a few years ago. As it stands, President Trump's use of this technique is one of the first public uses for security reasons. Perhaps the most entertaining aspect to the story is that President Trump left the media on the plane that was threatened with being shot down. Most of these journalists, even in retrospect, don't seem to realize that they were they were bait. More broadly, this incident is yet another peek behind the curtain regarding the shocking levels of security that President Trump is now surrounded by. A few days ago President Trump was spotted playing golf mere feet away from an Avenger Surface-to-Air Missile defense system, which had been set up near the fairway of Trump's golf course in Bedminster while the President played a few rounds. Similarly, a few months ago, the President quietly began having Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft holding station near him at all times, just in case enemy fighter jets or cruise missiles enter the airspace. To be sure, this security is very likely necessary, but therein lies the problem: If the President now requires a SAM system to be parked mere feet away from him during an ad hoc trip that only takes a few hours...this is indicative of how serious the threats are within the homeland. Even the notoriously paranoid Vladimir Putin, who got his start in the KGB and who's bedroom in the Kremlin has been targeted (so far unsuccessfully) by Ukrainian drones, doesn't travel around with an AWACS aircraft at all times. This is also very unlikely to be a case of President Trump himself being scared, and fortifying his surroundings as his predecessor did. President Trump is not a military man, and he would not have known to ask for a SAM system, and it's highly unlikely that Trump even knows that an AWACS follows him around everywhere now. Unfortunately, all of these extremely substantial security practices are probably not an overreaction, but likely a response to legitimate and very specific threats. What's more, the security practices that we visibly observe are not the countermeasures that would be effective against the standard lone-wolf terrorist or the standard variety of screeching lunatic who might want to target the President. These countermeasures are only for countering nationstate-level threats. In Turkey, for instance, the only entities that could have targeted President Trump's plane are national-level actors. Similarly, the use of an Avenger SAM system implies that the threat might be so quick to materialize, that the standard Combat Air Patrol that is mere minutes away...might not be fast enough of a response. If any other President had been observed chipping the ball onto the green with a SAM system parked in the rough just off the fairway...the American people would be panic buying cases of water and digging a bunker in their back yard by now. But because a level of tension that surpasses the height of the Cold War has become normalized, the general population barely notices. As long as Netflix works and Doritos are on store shelves, the fact that the United States government has rapidly increased steps to prepare for major, nationstate-level attacks within the homeland will continue to go unnoticed by most. Analyst: S2A1 Research: NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z August 11, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING LAST MONTH'S SECURITY INCIDENT INVOLVING AIR FORCE ONE. MULTIPLE OIL SPILLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD AROUND PERSIAN GULF AND ARABIAN SEA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight the targeting of merchant shipping continued, with both Iranian and American strikes on commercial vessels. Iran struck an oil tanker sometime over the past 24 hours, which resulted in an oil spill which washed up on the shores of Qeshm island this morning. In the Gulf of Oman, the United States struck a different merchant vessel for violating the American blockade. Analyst Comment: Similarly, a separate oil spill has continued to expand in Omani waters, after unclear circumstances (i.e. some sort of attack) led to an explosion onboard the M/T CAROLINE BEZENGI two months ago. Since that time, this vessel has been adrift until she ran aground in an Omani nature preserve. This morning Oman announced that the subsequent oil spill now covers roughly 150 square miles. Red Sea/HOA: The Houthis struck another vessel in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait last night. Analyst Comment: Locals claim this vessel was the M/V TIHAMAH a smaller regional containership that the Houthis had suspected of carrying out weapons shipments from Saudi Arabia, to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. If this is true, this would not be surprising, but every ship that gets struck in this Strait increases apprehension among commercial shipping companies. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Overnight, more details were released regarding the security incident affecting Air Force One during President Trump's visit to Turkey last month. At the time, a brief scandal emerged after President Trump switched from the newer Air Force One to the older airframe, due to an unidentified security incident of some kind. More specifically, the threat involved the newer Air Force One airframe allegedly not having sufficient missile defense systems, due to having been pressed into service too quickly for the appropriate countermeasures to be installed. However yesterday, more of the truth came out. President Trump actually pulled a double-switch. Instead of boarding the older legacy Air Force One, the Secret Service used a catering van to covertly move the President to an Air Force C-32A (one of the administrative backups that frequently accompanies AF1). From there, both aircraft flew to the United Kingdom (with President Trump's actual aircraft flying completely blacked out and not emitting any radio signals), where the President transitioned back to the newer Air Force 1 airframe for the trip back to the United States. Many people who are not familiar with the world of counterterrorism may think this is a super cool, James Bond-like operation that fooled those pesky journalists. However, this incident proves that a clear and present danger to the President existed, and was significant enough to warrant extreme measures. At the time, the White House claimed that the switch to a different plane was conducted out of an abundance of caution. Now, we find out that he was actually secretly switched to a third plane, and smuggled into that plane in a catering van. From the perspective of executive security, placing the principle in unorthodox situations like this to ensure security is a last-ditch method...a tactic that is utilized when the danger isreal enough to outweigh any inconvenience to the protectee. The Secret Service resorting to cramming the President in the back of a catering van is a tactic that has been used in the past, but only under extreme circumstances. Bill Clinton allegedly used this trick top avoid the press during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and Joe Biden was also suspected of having used this tactic when he had trouble climbing the AF1 staircase a few years ago. As it stands, President Trump's use of this technique is one of the first public uses for security reasons. Perhaps the most entertaining aspect to the story is that President Trump left the media on the plane that was threatened with being shot down. Most of these journalists, even in retrospect, don't seem to realize that they were they were bait. More broadly, this incident is yet another peek behind the curtain regarding the shocking levels of security that President Trump is now surrounded by. A few days ago President Trump was spotted playing golf mere feet away from an Avenger Surface-to-Air Missile defense system, which had been set up near the fairway of Trump's golf course in Bedminster while the President played a few rounds. Similarly, a few months ago, the President quietly began having Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft holding station near him at all times, just in case enemy fighter jets or cruise missiles enter the airspace. To be sure, this security is very likely necessary, but therein lies the problem: If the President now requires a SAM system to be parked mere feet away from him during an ad hoc trip that only takes a few hours...this is indicative of how serious the threats are within the homeland. Even the notoriously paranoid Vladimir Putin, who got his start in the KGB and who's bedroom in the Kremlin has been targeted (so far unsuccessfully) by Ukrainian drones, doesn't travel around with an AWACS aircraft at all times. This is also very unlikely to be a case of President Trump himself being scared, and fortifying his surroundings as his predecessor did. President Trump is not a military man, and he would not have known to ask for a SAM system, and it's highly unlikely that Trump even knows that an AWACS follows him around everywhere now. Unfortunately, all of these extremely substantial security practices are probably not an overreaction, but likely a response to legitimate and very specific threats. What's more, the security practices that we visibly observe are not the countermeasures that would be effective against the standard lone-wolf terrorist or the standard variety of screeching lunatic who might want to target the President. These countermeasures are only for countering nationstate-level threats. In Turkey, for instance, the only entities that could have targeted President Trump's plane are national-level actors. Similarly, the use of an Avenger SAM system implies that the threat might be so quick to materialize, that the standard Combat Air Patrol that is mere minutes away...might not be fast enough of a response. If any other President had been observed chipping the ball onto the green with a SAM system parked in the rough just off the fairway...the American people would be panic buying cases of water and digging a bunker in their back yard by now. But because a level of tension that surpasses the height of the Cold War has become normalized, the general population barely notices. As long as Netflix works and Doritos are on store shelves, the fact that the United States government has rapidly increased steps to prepare for major, nationstate-level attacks within the homeland will continue to go unnoticed by most. Analyst: S2A1 Research: NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

17,731 次观看 • 6 天前

OPERATION INDIGO SKYFALL (SKYNET) (Update 6/11/25) While Operation Indigo Skyfall is a program by the Anunnaki specifically to turn the global atmosphere into an electrolyte solution 'motherboard' that powers Skynet that's already fully online as of May 2020, it was preceded by a decades-long 3-pronged assault against the pineal glands of humankind. The thrust of all three programs combined are all about disconnecting people from their higher selves and to vastly reduce their intellect quotient to make them easily controlled, prior to the launch of Skynet. Understand the intense investment that has been funneled into destroying the very beings that paid the taxes (loosh) to fund these programs is more than the gross domestic products of multiple countries combined. At minimum, trillions $ pr year in 2025 dollars, for more than 80 years. If you’ve ever seen chemtrails in your skies, you’ve seen one of these programs in a bold, in-your-face, broad-daylight fashion. THREE-PRONGED ATTACK PREPARING FOR SKYNET #1 FLUORIDE = WATER CONTAMINATION In its first installation of what would ultimately become a nation-wide invasion of every metropolis, city, town and mud puddle in the US, fluoride was added to public water in Grand Rapids in 1945 to ‘fight tooth decay’. Problem is, fluoride is actually nuclear waste used as rat poison. It is a known neurotoxin more harmful than lead & likened to the toxicity of arsenic for more than 100 years, causing brain damage, spinal cord & nerve networks destruction and has never been shown to diminish the onset of tooth decay. Which every dentist in the country would have banded together to put a stop to back then if it really did that. So who decided to put THAT into your drinking water exactly? Andrew Mellon, 33rd degree Scottish Wrong Freem@son. Shocking Dangers of Fluoride: cancerwisdom dot net; "There has never been a double-blind, randomized clinical trial for fluoridation's effectiveness." [In reality, fluoride itself has been shown to damage teeth in a totally different way than we get through eating, known as fluorosis. Also in reality, all tooth decay is 100% of the time, parasites, not ‘rot’. They say sugar rots teeth; which is a lie. Sugar is a primary food of parasites, along with heavy metals. When you eat sugars then fail to immediately brush & floss, the parasites already in your body (and there are at least millions) rush to the crevices of your palate then wind up burrowing into your teeth’s (actual crystals) valance bands, further destroying them each time the parasites defecate. Anytime you eat anything sugar or sweetened, ALWAYS mix it with an antiparasitic & immediately brush, or rinse your mouth with hydrogen peroxide afterward, never with mouthwash, which is also poison. I will be covering this extensively soon in my new article: 👉PARASITES] As explained in greater detail below in the whistleblower video, fluoride was used by the N@TZIs (Ashke-N@TZI Crypto J3ws that took over Germany then lead that country into WW2, posing as actual Germans, which they absolutely were not. See my article: 👉GERMANY WON WW2 for more) in concentration camps in the 1930s-40s to make prisoners docile. How does that work? Fluoride accumulates at, and attacks, the pineal gland of your body. This is the ‘antenna’ connection to your higher self that generates your reality. The pineal gland then fights back the fluoride toxin, moving it just outside of its ‘theater of the mind’ and surrounds it to seal it off from attacking. This builds up a ‘calcification’ around the pineal gland, which acts as an insulator blocking your signal to the Primal Sound & Light Fields of the Deity Planes where your higher self has always been positioned, inside what is known in human terms as the Unified Field. [For more on the key function of the pineal gland, see my article: 👉 HOW THE HOLOGRAPHIC SIMULATION WORKS] #2 OPERATION INDIGO SKYFALL = AIR CONTAMINATION (not to be confused with Operation Indigo SkyFOLD which is just another red herring distraction to overcome the dissemination of the truth of this existential threat to all mankind.) Beginning as far back as 1972, Operation Indigo Skyfall chemtrail program is one of the most brutally-compartmentalized & ferociously classified operations of all-time. So secret, the tens of thousands of chemtrail jets across the world don’t even land on the continental United States, but refresh their death dust exclusively on private islands, outside of enforced laws. The first part of this program where strontium, barium & aluminum microparticles are being dumped onto all of the lands of earth that kill all life forms, including the trees and forests, is the obvious portion of your extermination, and even that is only a fraction of the story being applied to depopulate the plane(t) from reportedly 8B people (this is a lie, it was less than 5B in 2019) to just 500,000. The heavy metals being reported by laboratories are merely assaying the minerals themselves, not looking deeper into what’s really going on. In reality, these are the minerals used in the manufacture of nanites that are often no larger than just 4 molecules in size. Each one programmed on a quantum level to interconnect with one another, forming larger and larger computer nodes, just like the massive white ‘antennas’ being removed from millions of clot-shot victims around the world since the final push to bring this program to completion began with the ‘Covid’ attempted genocide using mRNA bioweapons. Prior to the huge blood-clots (invasive man-made prions to take over the full functioning of the body) now being retrieved from cadavers and patients suffering this biological invasion, chemtrail direct effects were known as Morgellons Disease where tiny wire-like structures were coming out of people’s skin. However, the ‘disease’ gaslighting was exposed when laboratories began placing them under powerful microscopes and finding they were individual nanotbots ‘holding hands’ to make up the ‘wires’ that were now growing inside people’s bodies. Once zoomed in using scanning electron-microscopy to each one, they not only found the NAME of the companies behind each model, but even serial numbers printed in quantum-dots on their structures. You might recognize this one that clearly says NASA on its surface. The program of chemtrail nanites is to infiltrate the immune system of the human body and generate immunodeficiency so you are unable to fight off diseases and viruses. But there is another, even more primary mission for those molecular-sized robots; to collect at your pineal gland causing calcification and thus not only disrupting your entire system, but placing a crystalline ‘shell’ around it to cut off your ‘spiritual’ access to your higher self. Think of it like scrambling the signal of your cellphone if you had a direct line to ‘god’. As an aside, Cody Snodres, the independent contractor for the C 👁️A of 20 years & hero whistleblower that broke the story of Operation Indigo Skyfall in 2018 in the video below, mentions pathogens being added to chemtrails. These have been solidly identified by labs as recently as a few months ago in late 2024 & again in Jan of 2025 when entire cities were enveloped by huge, totally dry, fog banks of particulates dropped from the skies that caused countless deaths from pneumonia. Referred to by people as ‘Dragon Fog’, the pathogens are actually Serratia Marcescens bacteria (another word for parasites, pathogens, microorganisms & viruses). While I’m sure there have been other parasites added to chemtrails that attack the immune systems of humans and animals other than Serratia Marcescens, this particular species has been used by mil operations now as an ideal biological weapon and regularly upgraded now for many decades. Stay with me, I’m getting to Skynet, but first I have to show you some of the foundational elements of how the invader races have reached this point where humans would have become so mentally effected by this unthinkably massive-scale attack on your pineal gland, they would become psychologically and emotionally unable to fight back, even if they ever did look up in the sky and cognitively register the fact that contrails (endothermic sublimation or ‘fog’) emitted by the compressed-air turbines of jets dissipate in about 8-20 seconds, not hang in the air for hours and hours. [And for those now wondering what I mean about jets using compressed air as forward thrust in commercial passenger jets, that’s a story that is going to surely hack you off when you find out that passenger jets have always been levitation/time crafts since they were introduced to the public in the 1940s. They don’t run on fuel, but on high-altitude atmospheric neutrino-to-ion conversion harvesting (also known as ‘Secondary Emissions’ as well as ‘Neutrino Events’). So every ‘fuel increase’ markup for local and international flights has always been absolutely made-up, since what they run on is eternally-free energy. See my article for more: 👉JET FUEL HOAX] #3 M0NSANT0 = FOOD CONTAMINATION This company does *not make better-performing corn & veggies: it is a bioweapons company. John Francis Queeny, a Freem@son, that founded this genocidal operation in 1901 produces 90% of the world’s genetically-altered seeds & is responsible for developing Agent Orange, a defoliant used during the Vietnam War, containing a highly toxic chemical known as dioxin that caused permanent health issues for thousands of war veterans. Later it used this same type of murderous chemical in Roundup to k!ll weeds around your home, coating your world with glyphosate that changes the sex in frogs and turns them ghey and sterile. Guess what other life forms it changes the sex in and makes them sterile? Ever witnessed the most celebrated triathlete of the 20th century suddenly pop up and claim he was now a ‘woman’? How about watching as our youngest generation enters the workforce, most of whom don’t even know what sex they are? That’s your M0nsanto working hard to ensure the human race is eradicated from the all-queer-all-the-time world Freem@sons envision as their true utopia in the “500m sustainable population” as etched into granite on the Georgia Guidestones. A number mirrored by United Nation’s Agenda 2030 to be achieved by the year 2050. Their goal is literally 👉your depopulation and those that are left, will be 100% ghey. Diddly Parties nightly! GMO foods that are grown using M0nsanto’s “Roundup Ready” fertilizer that is made with glyphosate toxins are absorbed by the gut and then travel directly to the pineal gland. This is the Anunnaki’s ‘Trifecta’ attack on your most precious organ of your body. The very organ that dictates all the parameters of your reality held within your Krystal Seed Atom Keylon you enter into manifestation with, commonly referred to as your ‘soul’. In more accurate terms, your Krystal Seed Atom is like a Bluetooth module that tethers your awareness from your higher self in the Primal Sound and Light Fields of the Deity Planes, to your physical avatar here on the ground through the wireless ‘pale silver cord’. The Krystal Seed Atom is located in the middle of your pineal gland. [For more on the Krystal Seed Atom, see my articles: 👉THE HISTORY OF THE CHIMERA, & 👉THE KEYS TO HEAVEN] As Cody points out in the video, this is not a matter of hitting your pineal gland with three doses of toxins, but because of how these three chemicals of fluoride, nano aluminum & glyphosate interact with each other, creates synergy, or a dynamic magnification of the toxicity effect by a factor of 125x greater than any one individual dose would achieve. This makes the Trifecta assault astronomically devastating to your connection to the pale silver cord and your wireless connection to the ‘real’ you that’s running your avatar in the deity planes. Sort of like taking your 4 yr old to the mall and just letting them go on their own. Now, with your virtually disabled pineal gland reality-casting component out of the way, enter the true teeth behind Operation Indigo Skyfall; Skynet. SKYNET This is a subject I won’t be able to offer much tangible, solid evidence on, as it goes deeply into quantum physics. All of which terms describing each step in the chain to achieve ‘if this, then that’, are shielded from public understanding by design. The power of computers is vastly beyond what the human mind has been given the ability to process, also by design. [As I’ve covered before, the Chimera brain you work with now, since the total body-invasion of the garden of E-Dan drama, is fitted with breaker switches that are designed to keep certain subjects hidden from your reality-view. When exposed to any of these, a switch is thrown at the base of the brain within the totally counterfeit ‘reptilian brain’ that introduces feral, animalistic type of wavelengths into your thought processes. The switch then disengages your sentient thoughts, shutting off either temporarily, or permanently, your processor (brain). Simply put: if you see a creature you’re not supposed to, or other ‘proprietary’ mechanisms of the invader races (which are in fact all around you every minute of everyday) that doesn’t fit with the ‘Mayberry RFD’ Chimera Reality simulation overlay, or if you experience too much trauma, you will simply black out, delete that memory when you wake up, or in extreme cases, pass away from fright. The realm of quantum computing will have the same effect on humans as well. You might learn all about the subject, but secretly in the background your memories will strangely be deleted next time you come back to it, unless your cells vibrate at a higher resonance than 7.83Hz. [For more on the inorganic organs now in our bodies, see my article: 👉HUMAN ALIEN IMPLANTS] Nonetheless, I can simplify the thrust of Skynet for you in broad terms here. Just understand that Skynet was explained to me in person by the keeper. I didn’t make Skynet up on my own, I wasn’t prompted by the Skynet mentioned in the documentary series The Terminator, and I certainly wasn’t prepared to learn there could be something as all-powerful reigning over our world. Chemtrails, besides dropping immune-system pathogens on you, cutting off your connection to your higher self through nano aluminum particles, contains other metals (nanites) that act together like salts in a body of water, turning the sky itself (also water, just very thinned down) into an electrolyte solution, meaning it can now conduct signals, just like a motherboard on a computer. The hard drive and RAM are already there in the form of deuterium microcrystals, absolutely saturating our skies at all times. Each crystal can be used for different applications, and many of them connected together through lensing (similar to network covalent bonding them together) can be combined to do heavy tasks, such as create hurricanes, floods, gale-force winds, everything you would ascribe to mother nature. But more than just that, Skynet is a ‘sentient quantum computer’ as explained to me, that can identify every person on earth instantly anywhere they are, because it is quantum-entangled to each person’s own unique DNA resonant frequency. This gives Skynet access to not only record every word you say, but every thought you think. This is done through Bloch Chain (Bloch Sphere entanglement technology that civilians call ‘blockchain’) through using each person's blood samples from the bottom of their Long Form Certificate of Live Birth taken at the hospital, and further from 81.3% of the world population who took the convid tests that were also secretly the actual jab itself, in addition to genetic harvesting. Genealogy companies like 23andMe also provide genetic materials to Skynet to make it possible to not only track you, but 'turn you off' if you're from a bloodline the highest-up ETs don't want here. Further, its able to simply 'shut off' any part of your body, taking over complete control like an RC car, or, simply turn it off as mentioned a moment ago, as in unalived. And do so instantly no matter where they stand on or in earth. Since you are already a radio-controlled bioelectronic device, any cell in your body can be turned into anything, including c@ncer, or any disease you can name. It can also be turned into poison itself. [For a small addition to this topic, see my article: 👉SKYNET] NAME OF THE OPERATION Cody summarizes the name of Operation Indigo Skyfall as having come from the fact that all of the chemical effects it produces in the human body are focused to the pineal gland, and, in the energy centers of the 7 main chakras (these are toroidal energy generators along the spine and skeletal structure) that cast off differing colors of light as seen through photometers or electromagnetic frequency analyzers that are used to detect biophotons, the Third Eye chakra emitted by the pineal gland is factually Indigo in color. So that’s what inspired this name of the operation. However, I would like to submit a different theory that links to the human Third Eye chakra, but actually originates from a different target: Indigos themselves. There are 500,000 ‘b00ts on the ground’ Indigos that have been assisting humans during their time of captivity now for hundreds of millions of years. You have called us witches & warlocks in the past, medicine men/women, Sufis, the Whirling Dervish, Indigos, Starseeds, Rainbow Children and many others, including Djedi Knights in more ancient times. They are actually known as the Guardian Alliance of the Emerald Covenant, peace-keepers of the ‘Turaneusiam’ Human Elohim Project. Indigos come into earth’s realm mind-wiped and alone, just as humans do. All they bring with them are slightly higher clair abilities they can use to fight an invisible war protecting the developing avatars from as much torture as they would otherwise experience. There is no group alive the invader races are more concerned about than Indigos, as if unified, there is no force on this plane that could stop them, and the invaders know it. What they fear is our higher frequency that gives us access to ‘cellular memory’ that tells us we’re ‘on mission’ and the instinct of how to serve our roles. That is why Indigos are hunted down since before they are even born, by tracking their frequency, which is 250x higher than that of the Human Elohim. We are harvested for gov programs beginning at the time of birth & given to high ranking gov and Freem@son officials to raise and torture through MK-Ultra abuse, given friends, lovers & mates who are secretly handlers that torture us even more to keep us in line, and in many cases are abducted and placed into stasis in chambers such as at Project Stargate inside Cheyenne Mtn (N0RAD) as mentioned recently by the AI hybrid Agent Mockingbird stated from above-top-secret records there are tens of thousands of our ‘primary bodies’ being held there, sometimes then cloned as physical worker slaves, & sometimes our awarenesses are simply uploaded as ‘nodes’ into computer systems. My primary body is there right now in fact, and has been since the 1970s. I believe this is the genesis of the name Operation Indigo Skyfall, as we are their biggest threat. And since the 7.83Hz Hypnosis Program doesn’t work on us to render us totally disconnected from our higher selves like it does on humans, to me this makes more logical sense. You can decide that on your own. [For more on this subject, see my article: 👉7.83Hz HUMAN HYPNOSIS] The apocalypse we are in now is the final battle on Tara earth prior to the separation, so absolute, total control over the life force is critical to the Anunnaki to maximize the number of signature spirit essences who will be going with them to their new prison host in the Weasadrax time matrix. [For more on the separation and destinations, see my articles: 👉THE SEPARATION & also 👉DESTINATIONS AFTER THE SEPARATION] See Video: Operation Indigo Skyfall - Cody Snodgres👇 - On X, to search for my articles, simply type in the name of the piece, enter one space, then from: plus my username in parenthesis such as shown here: CASTING THE APOCALYPSE (from:iontecs_pemf) Off-site, you can look up any of my writings through this link below for my other more than 120 recent articles and many thousands of comments on X, regularly updated thanks to Justin This message will only be seen by your eyes if not shared, and if you want to reference this article again later, you will need to cut and paste it in your own notes off line, as it will surely be erased. This is the most accurate translation of these events I am aware of at this time.

W.R. Schock, QBD

55,061 次观看 • 1 年前

🔺 Rising Lion’s 2nd week 🔺 Iran goes for civilians 🔺 1 drone out of 1000 🔺 Khamenei threatens 🔺 Special guest: Israel’s next move 🔺 Middle East Report / Saturday, June 21 🔺 It’s been one week since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion with the goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear project and ballistic missile infrastructure. 2 nights ago, for the first and only time in a week, I slept through the night—thanks to the extraordinary efforts of Israeli Air Force pilots and the intelligence apparatus operating above Iran. Between Thursday and Friday only one missile was fired, landing in a parking lot in Be’er Sheva. Three additional launchers were neutralized before they could be used. The number of Iranian launches is dwindling—not because Iran has abandoned its thirst for revenge, but because it's running out of means. 🔺 Thursday night once again proved the strategic importance of a preemptive strike. As we saw on October 7, surprise disorients the enemy, paralyzes decision-making, and grants the attacker invaluable momentum. Hamas enjoyed its surprise for about 24 hours—but still shows no regret. Israel, however, continues to crush Iranian military infrastructure from 1,500 kilometers away. But let’s be clear: Iran has not surrendered. It has merely shifted tactics, operating now more like a terror group—firing the minimum number of missiles to remain in the game while stalling for time and hoping someone else saves the regime from collapse. 🔺 The Middle East Report was created to provide a concise summary of regional developments based on a wide array of sources plus my own insights. But it’s always valuable to hear alternative perspectives. That’s why I invited British military analyst Andrew Fox to weigh in on three questions I had. I'm grateful he agreed—keep reading for his eye-opening take. 🔺 America Ramps Up in the Middle East The U.S. continues to bolster its regional posture—first deploying dozens of aerial refueling aircraft and 2 aircraft carriers (USS Nimitz and USS Ford), then fighter squadrons, and now even fearsome B-2 bombers capable of carrying the massive MOP bunker-buster, designed to penetrate deep into hardened facilities like Iran’s Fordow enrichment site. Meanwhile, the UK is still weighing its options, but the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier was spotted passing through the Suez Canal eastward. France, predictably, would prefer Israel to stop fighting—hoping to avoid unrest among its own Muslim population. Nothing new. Will the U.S. join the fight? I have no idea. American politics isn’t my field. But the level of coordination, the tone in which the administration talks, and the unwavering support for Israel suggest Washington is aiming to bring Iran to its knees—either through psychological warfare, acting the “bad cop”, or direct force. 🔺 The Numbers Tell the Story So far, Iran has fired ~520 missiles at Israel. About 90% were intercepted by Israel’s missile defense systems. Another 5% landed harmlessly in open areas. Only ~25 missiles (mere 5%) hit their targets—tragically causing civilian casualties and huge damage. Only 25. On average, it takes over 20 missiles to kill one Israeli. Even Hamas is more effective. Iran also launched over 1,000 UAVs at Israeli territory; only one of them hit (on an empty house in Beit She’an, just hours ago). What a staggering waste of resources. To date, 24 civilians have been killed by Iranian attacks, including four Arab family members in Tamra, five Ukrainian family members who came to Israel for medical care, two elderly spouses killed when a missile directly struck their protected room. No soldiers. No army bases. No aircraft, ship, or command post. Only civilians. Thanks to Israel’s home-front readiness—reinforced rooms, shelters, clear civil defense instructions, and a disciplined public—the death toll is far lower than it could have been. Israel is the only country in the world where every new building must include a fortified room. Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas hides in tunnels while civilians have no protection at all. Iranian rockets struck residential towers, destroyed years of research at the Weizmann Institute, and damaged hospital wings at Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva. Today they managed to hit a mosque in Haifa and a Christian home for children with disabilities, and caused havoc in a Bedouin (Muslim) town in the south. Iran is no longer fighting for military victory—it is aiming only to terrorize and destroy, but after 77 years of existential threats, Israel is not so easily rattled. 🔺 Striking Iran’s Regime In response to continued attacks on Israeli civilian infrastructure, Israel has escalated strikes against key regime symbols in Iran—targeting police headquarters, Revolutionary Guard bases, and internal security networks. These forces are central to suppressing domestic dissent, and weakening them aims to destabilize the regime's grip on power. In response, Tehran has cut off internet access entirely to prevent images of unrest from spreading and to paralyze opposition groups. Opposition forces are slowly joining in. For example, the Shah’s Air Force Pilots’ Union, a pre-revolutionary group, issued a call to the Iranian military to abandon the regime and side with the people. Meanwhile, an Israeli cyber group successfully targeted Iran’s cryptocurrency exchange NOBITEX, a key mechanism used by the regime to circumvent sanctions. Foreign reports indicate the exchange’s holdings dropped from $1.8 billion to just $100 million. Oops. 🔺 What About Hezbollah? Iran’s most prominent proxy, Hezbollah, has mostly stuck to empty threats. While it still possesses advanced launch capabilities and tens of thousands of fighters, the group is weak, isolated, and lacks popular and governmental support. Lebanese Christian political leader Samir Geagea, publicly rebuked Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem, saying: "You are not entitled to act unilaterally. If you have proposals, bring them to the government. This isn’t a country where everyone acts on their own." Israel’s defense minister fired back: “The Hezbollah Secretary General continues to act on Tehran’s orders. He should understand—Israel has lost patience with terrorists. If terrorism persists—Hezbollah will cease to exist.” If Hezbollah truly believed Iran would prevail, they’d already be in the fight. But who bets on the losing side? Better to short Iran and profit. 🔺 Iran’s Leaders Speak—From the Shadows On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader, speaking from hiding, declared: "Our nation will not forget its martyrs’ blood and will not sit idly by as our airspace is violated. The Zionist entity has made a grave mistake—and it will suffer the consequences. The Americans must understand: Iran cannot be subdued. Any military interference will bring irreversible damage." Then on Friday morning, after that single missile hit the parking lot in Be’er Sheva, the Supreme Leader posted a defiant tweet: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintained a diplomatic front: “The U.S. approached us for negotiations—we refused. We will not negotiate while aggression continues (rings a bell? It's the same tactic used by Hamas, which Israel politely ignores). We will not discuss our missile program with anyone.” This reminds me of Exodus 7:3 - "And I will harden Pharaoh's heart, and multiply my signs and my wonders in the land of Egypt." Every dog has his day. 🔺 Iran’s Image Crisis Iran’s greatest fear is losing face. The regime cannot admit weakness—it fears the domino effect this might trigger among its proxies and adversaries across the region. But when ego overrides strategy, bad decisions follow. That’s why I turned to Andrew Fox Andrew Fox, a respected British military thinker, to provide an outside perspective. Andrew is a former British airborne officer, a Middle East expert, and a fellow at the Henry Jackson Society (Henry Jackson Society). Since the beginning of the war, Andrew has stood with Israel, not because he’s Jewish or Israeli (he’s not) but because he hates injustice, and he recognizes how the Palestinian psychological warfare is waged against Israel and even against Jews all over the world. He’s been to Israel countless times and has seen things first handedly here and in Gaza. I’m grateful he agreed to share his thoughts. Q1: In hindsight, what could Israel have done better in the first week of the war? A: Militarily, Israel’s opening strikes were highly effective. Tactically, it could not have gone much better. My one concern is that Israel might have started a job it does not have the capability to finish - destroying the entirety of the nuclear programme is a huge challenge. Everyone fixates on Fordow but there are other underground facilities that will be challenging to strike from the air without American involvement. Shaldag (an IAF commando unit, specializing in intelligence gathering and striking deep inside the enemy's territory - IA) may be able to destroy Fordow with a raid, but other sites present a similar challenge. Q2: If Iran tries to wait Israel out like Hamas did, what’s Israel’s wild card? A: Israel needs to shift from attrition to strategic paralysis. Cyber warfare could cripple Iran’s command systems and public infrastructure without more civilian deaths. Covertly supporting restive minorities could stretch the regime internally. And a second wave of targeted strikes against political and clerical elites might fracture Tehran’s inner circle. Paired with a serious diplomatic off-ramp, that’s how Israel forces real concessions. Q3: Could Iran use chemical weapons as a last resort? A: It’s unlikely but not impossible. Iran has the knowledge and possibly the stockpiles, though it denies both. Using chemical warheads would be suicidal: it would provoke massive Israeli (and potentially US) retaliation, destroy Iran’s diplomatic support, and risk internal backlash. The only scenario where they might consider it is if the regime believes it’s days from collapse. Until then, it’s more of a deterrent than a realistic option. Follow Andrew on - highly recommended. 🔺 As we enter the second week of the war with Iran, let’s remember: just two weeks ago, Greta Thunberg was dominating headlines from the Middle East. An entire report without once mentioning Gaza? Things are hectic and we have tough days ahead of us. Pray for the safety of Israeli soldiers and civilians. And always remember—the eternal people are not afraid of a long journey. For those who might have forgotten, see the amazing video (who made it? Please share!). Speakers on. Shabbat Shalom 🙏🌸🇮🇱💪 ************************************* Reached the bottom of the Middle East Report? Don’t forget to follow the Chief Hasbara Officer 😘 Please share, like, follow and help others get the news... see you all in the next report. ************************************* #Syria #Houthis #Yemen #Lebanon #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah #Iran #Gaza #BringThemHome #TimeToSurrender

🔺 Rising Lion’s 2nd week 🔺 Iran goes for civilians 🔺 1 drone out of 1000 🔺 Khamenei threatens 🔺 Special guest: Israel’s next move 🔺 Middle East Report / Saturday, June 21 🔺 It’s been one week since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion with the goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear project and ballistic missile infrastructure. 2 nights ago, for the first and only time in a week, I slept through the night—thanks to the extraordinary efforts of Israeli Air Force pilots and the intelligence apparatus operating above Iran. Between Thursday and Friday only one missile was fired, landing in a parking lot in Be’er Sheva. Three additional launchers were neutralized before they could be used. The number of Iranian launches is dwindling—not because Iran has abandoned its thirst for revenge, but because it's running out of means. 🔺 Thursday night once again proved the strategic importance of a preemptive strike. As we saw on October 7, surprise disorients the enemy, paralyzes decision-making, and grants the attacker invaluable momentum. Hamas enjoyed its surprise for about 24 hours—but still shows no regret. Israel, however, continues to crush Iranian military infrastructure from 1,500 kilometers away. But let’s be clear: Iran has not surrendered. It has merely shifted tactics, operating now more like a terror group—firing the minimum number of missiles to remain in the game while stalling for time and hoping someone else saves the regime from collapse. 🔺 The Middle East Report was created to provide a concise summary of regional developments based on a wide array of sources plus my own insights. But it’s always valuable to hear alternative perspectives. That’s why I invited British military analyst Andrew Fox to weigh in on three questions I had. I'm grateful he agreed—keep reading for his eye-opening take. 🔺 America Ramps Up in the Middle East The U.S. continues to bolster its regional posture—first deploying dozens of aerial refueling aircraft and 2 aircraft carriers (USS Nimitz and USS Ford), then fighter squadrons, and now even fearsome B-2 bombers capable of carrying the massive MOP bunker-buster, designed to penetrate deep into hardened facilities like Iran’s Fordow enrichment site. Meanwhile, the UK is still weighing its options, but the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier was spotted passing through the Suez Canal eastward. France, predictably, would prefer Israel to stop fighting—hoping to avoid unrest among its own Muslim population. Nothing new. Will the U.S. join the fight? I have no idea. American politics isn’t my field. But the level of coordination, the tone in which the administration talks, and the unwavering support for Israel suggest Washington is aiming to bring Iran to its knees—either through psychological warfare, acting the “bad cop”, or direct force. 🔺 The Numbers Tell the Story So far, Iran has fired ~520 missiles at Israel. About 90% were intercepted by Israel’s missile defense systems. Another 5% landed harmlessly in open areas. Only ~25 missiles (mere 5%) hit their targets—tragically causing civilian casualties and huge damage. Only 25. On average, it takes over 20 missiles to kill one Israeli. Even Hamas is more effective. Iran also launched over 1,000 UAVs at Israeli territory; only one of them hit (on an empty house in Beit She’an, just hours ago). What a staggering waste of resources. To date, 24 civilians have been killed by Iranian attacks, including four Arab family members in Tamra, five Ukrainian family members who came to Israel for medical care, two elderly spouses killed when a missile directly struck their protected room. No soldiers. No army bases. No aircraft, ship, or command post. Only civilians. Thanks to Israel’s home-front readiness—reinforced rooms, shelters, clear civil defense instructions, and a disciplined public—the death toll is far lower than it could have been. Israel is the only country in the world where every new building must include a fortified room. Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas hides in tunnels while civilians have no protection at all. Iranian rockets struck residential towers, destroyed years of research at the Weizmann Institute, and damaged hospital wings at Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva. Today they managed to hit a mosque in Haifa and a Christian home for children with disabilities, and caused havoc in a Bedouin (Muslim) town in the south. Iran is no longer fighting for military victory—it is aiming only to terrorize and destroy, but after 77 years of existential threats, Israel is not so easily rattled. 🔺 Striking Iran’s Regime In response to continued attacks on Israeli civilian infrastructure, Israel has escalated strikes against key regime symbols in Iran—targeting police headquarters, Revolutionary Guard bases, and internal security networks. These forces are central to suppressing domestic dissent, and weakening them aims to destabilize the regime's grip on power. In response, Tehran has cut off internet access entirely to prevent images of unrest from spreading and to paralyze opposition groups. Opposition forces are slowly joining in. For example, the Shah’s Air Force Pilots’ Union, a pre-revolutionary group, issued a call to the Iranian military to abandon the regime and side with the people. Meanwhile, an Israeli cyber group successfully targeted Iran’s cryptocurrency exchange NOBITEX, a key mechanism used by the regime to circumvent sanctions. Foreign reports indicate the exchange’s holdings dropped from $1.8 billion to just $100 million. Oops. 🔺 What About Hezbollah? Iran’s most prominent proxy, Hezbollah, has mostly stuck to empty threats. While it still possesses advanced launch capabilities and tens of thousands of fighters, the group is weak, isolated, and lacks popular and governmental support. Lebanese Christian political leader Samir Geagea, publicly rebuked Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem, saying: "You are not entitled to act unilaterally. If you have proposals, bring them to the government. This isn’t a country where everyone acts on their own." Israel’s defense minister fired back: “The Hezbollah Secretary General continues to act on Tehran’s orders. He should understand—Israel has lost patience with terrorists. If terrorism persists—Hezbollah will cease to exist.” If Hezbollah truly believed Iran would prevail, they’d already be in the fight. But who bets on the losing side? Better to short Iran and profit. 🔺 Iran’s Leaders Speak—From the Shadows On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader, speaking from hiding, declared: "Our nation will not forget its martyrs’ blood and will not sit idly by as our airspace is violated. The Zionist entity has made a grave mistake—and it will suffer the consequences. The Americans must understand: Iran cannot be subdued. Any military interference will bring irreversible damage." Then on Friday morning, after that single missile hit the parking lot in Be’er Sheva, the Supreme Leader posted a defiant tweet: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintained a diplomatic front: “The U.S. approached us for negotiations—we refused. We will not negotiate while aggression continues (rings a bell? It's the same tactic used by Hamas, which Israel politely ignores). We will not discuss our missile program with anyone.” This reminds me of Exodus 7:3 - "And I will harden Pharaoh's heart, and multiply my signs and my wonders in the land of Egypt." Every dog has his day. 🔺 Iran’s Image Crisis Iran’s greatest fear is losing face. The regime cannot admit weakness—it fears the domino effect this might trigger among its proxies and adversaries across the region. But when ego overrides strategy, bad decisions follow. That’s why I turned to Andrew Fox Andrew Fox, a respected British military thinker, to provide an outside perspective. Andrew is a former British airborne officer, a Middle East expert, and a fellow at the Henry Jackson Society (Henry Jackson Society). Since the beginning of the war, Andrew has stood with Israel, not because he’s Jewish or Israeli (he’s not) but because he hates injustice, and he recognizes how the Palestinian psychological warfare is waged against Israel and even against Jews all over the world. He’s been to Israel countless times and has seen things first handedly here and in Gaza. I’m grateful he agreed to share his thoughts. Q1: In hindsight, what could Israel have done better in the first week of the war? A: Militarily, Israel’s opening strikes were highly effective. Tactically, it could not have gone much better. My one concern is that Israel might have started a job it does not have the capability to finish - destroying the entirety of the nuclear programme is a huge challenge. Everyone fixates on Fordow but there are other underground facilities that will be challenging to strike from the air without American involvement. Shaldag (an IAF commando unit, specializing in intelligence gathering and striking deep inside the enemy's territory - IA) may be able to destroy Fordow with a raid, but other sites present a similar challenge. Q2: If Iran tries to wait Israel out like Hamas did, what’s Israel’s wild card? A: Israel needs to shift from attrition to strategic paralysis. Cyber warfare could cripple Iran’s command systems and public infrastructure without more civilian deaths. Covertly supporting restive minorities could stretch the regime internally. And a second wave of targeted strikes against political and clerical elites might fracture Tehran’s inner circle. Paired with a serious diplomatic off-ramp, that’s how Israel forces real concessions. Q3: Could Iran use chemical weapons as a last resort? A: It’s unlikely but not impossible. Iran has the knowledge and possibly the stockpiles, though it denies both. Using chemical warheads would be suicidal: it would provoke massive Israeli (and potentially US) retaliation, destroy Iran’s diplomatic support, and risk internal backlash. The only scenario where they might consider it is if the regime believes it’s days from collapse. Until then, it’s more of a deterrent than a realistic option. Follow Andrew on - highly recommended. 🔺 As we enter the second week of the war with Iran, let’s remember: just two weeks ago, Greta Thunberg was dominating headlines from the Middle East. An entire report without once mentioning Gaza? Things are hectic and we have tough days ahead of us. Pray for the safety of Israeli soldiers and civilians. And always remember—the eternal people are not afraid of a long journey. For those who might have forgotten, see the amazing video (who made it? Please share!). Speakers on. Shabbat Shalom 🙏🌸🇮🇱💪 * Reached the bottom of the Middle East Report? Don’t forget to follow the Chief Hasbara Officer 😘 Please share, like, follow and help others get the news... see you all in the next report. * #Syria #Houthis #Yemen #Lebanon #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah #Iran #Gaza #BringThemHome #TimeToSurrender

Itamar Avni / Chief Hasbara Officer

36,732 次观看 • 1 年前