Can Pratt actually win? Why did the odds just change? Was having trouble finding good context on this race so I made a site you can query as the odds move. (The Timeline)

@timelineislive This is incredible

@timelineislive thank you!! very much a work in progress.

how it works. - We curate sources from X, Polymarket, Bluesky and Substack. - We use Hermes from @NousResearch to help discover new sources and monitor the election. - The info we absorb is turned into a live dataset that you can query.

some notes. The goal with the site is to be a reliable place to answer some of the most frequent questions about the election as the answers evolve. (Why is Bass in the lead? What explains this recent change in odds? Who has been an influential source? How did sentiment about a candidate change over time?) These answers are all out there if you dig deep into the battleground of the internet but most people don't want to do that. We seek to make this information legible and easy to explore for anyone. This is an early prototype and the answers aren’t that great yet! but it can improve. Please share links to add to the DB. feedback also welcome!

@timelineislive veeerryy coool. also why did Nithya jump so hard? any idea there?

@timelineislive thank you!! and this is a good question. I just asked the app about this window. Output on related trades is below. My guess based on observing it was that there was also a Berkley poll that came out that was very favorable to Raman.

@timelineislive ahh I didn't even know I could ask questions about the data! this is rad.

@timelineislive fwiw this looks like a customer support widget and I automatically ignore those unless I'm having issues.

@timelineislive ahhh. good feedback! where's do you think the ideal place is for this? it's sort of similar to customer support. haha

@timelineislive hmm yea good point idk man I'd steal from cursor/claude/IDEs tbh. keep it open automatically and let them hide w/ a little option top right

@timelineislive that's interesting! will think on this. I can also make other buttons in the feed open it. might also not hurt for it to be redundant. It's in X and some other places

@timelineislive good callback. idk I think grok works bc it's branded as such? I know I'm gonna talk to grok when I click the grok icon vs other / internal chat boxes. +1 making other things pop it open too.

@timelineislive Seconds before the odds change

@timelineislive I find it VERY hard to believe Bass is doing that well.

@Skepticaloptmst @timelineislive I feel ya. LA is also extremely blue. I think odds will also change quite a bit if he crushes the primary on tuesday. but TBD.

@timelineislive Anybody can win. It's a contest.

@timelineislive Having difficulty viewing that- my end. Is this based on the polymarket poll?

@timelineislive hello. yes. we use polymarket data. what part of the app is not viewable?

@timelineislive this is actually a pretty clean idea ngl, live odds + context hits every cycle

@timelineislive nice, scratching the cant-find-good-context itch by just building it is peak. Moonshift can ship that kind of thing as a full product overnight: build + deploy + market. first run's free at

@timelineislive oh this is nice

@timelineislive thank you! very much a work in progress. let me know if you have any feedback or feature requests.

@timelineislive Remember betting odds are odds, but odds get better the more people bet on you.