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🇺🇸 Can the U.S. dollar actually hyperinflate? Peter Schiff and George Gammon agree America has a serious monetary problem. They disagree sharply on how it ends. Gammon argues the dollar is fundamentally different from currencies that collapsed in Argentina or Weimar Germany because much of the global dollar supply... is created through debt. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘴.” Schiff sees the opposite danger: foreigners lose confidence, dump U.S. assets and send dollars flooding back into an economy running enormous deficits and struggling to produce enough goods. Same dollar system. Two very different failure modes. Gammon sees contraction as the brake. Schiff sees returning dollars as the accelerant. George Gammon , Peter Schiffshow more

Mario Nawfal

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42,677 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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8 Kommentare

Profilbild von Tyso.net

Tyso.netvor 3 Tagen

It's an interesting debate. The historical context really does matter when discussing the dollar's future.

Profilbild von Naija2capeblog

Naija2capeblogvor 3 Tagen

The distinction they draw is the part that actually stuck with me, which is that the dollar can lose ground as a savings asset for central banks without immediately losing its role in trade.

Profilbild von Max

Maxvor 3 Tagen

I get lost in the theoretical debate. But my life experience is that deficits keeps rising, debt keeps rising - prices keep outrunning income. Contraction exacerbates. As all this now accelerate, all I anticipate is, no bueno.

Profilbild von George

Georgevor 3 Tagen

A slow, managed bleed gets the job done with far less panic. 🩸

Profilbild von ftm💫

ftm💫vor 3 Tagen

the macro cycle really is just a loop of these same old warnings ngl

Profilbild von Ajit - Stocks | Business | AI | Tech | Geopolitics

Ajit - Stocks | Business | AI | Tech | Geopoliticsvor 3 Tagen

the world owes trillions in offshore dollar debt, which triggers a brutal liquidity squeeze long before hyperinflation ever has a chance to start.

Profilbild von John Arthor

John Arthorvor 3 Tagen

Hyperinflation isn’t inevitable, but persistent deficits and a loss of confidence can create serious risks. The debate over which failure mode comes first is worth watching closely.

Profilbild von Kraisorn Freedom

Kraisorn Freedomvor 3 Tagen

I am getting more context from comparing planned management with winning-trade management.

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A Dollar shortage + oil shortage isn't supposed to be possible. The demand for oil is inversely correlated to the value of the Dollar. Under normal supply situations, the higher the Dollar the less oil nations can afford, which reduces demand. What's different this time is there's an engineered supply shock to global oil, but not in the U.S. As nations are starved of oil, their economies slow. Their ability to sell goods to the U.S. declines, which means they receive less Dollars that they need to service their debt. At the same time, the U.S. is still open for business, exporting oil for Dollars, which sucks Dollars back into the U.S. The more the U.S. exports, the less Dollars are in circulation for the rest of the world, raising the value of the Dollar when there's an oil shortage. Again, the Dollar & Oil going up at the same time isn't supposed to be possible, but that's exactly what's about to happen. This leads to a massive disruption in the global debt market, which tightens loan supply, reducing the ability to get Dollars, increasing the risk of defaults while forcing nations to sell their U.S. Dollar denominated assets below face value. e.g. U.S. treasuries

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For years the prediction was the same. The dollar is about to collapse. It keeps not happening. Here is the piece most people miss. Dollar strain and record stock markets are not a contradiction. They are two different things. The strain is real. But so is this. Global capital keeps flowing into US assets, because out of the whole world, this is where the growth and the liquidity are. And to buy US assets, you need US dollars. So the flows themselves put a bid under the dollar. Money comes in, it has to become dollars first, and that keeps the dollar strong against everything else. That is why the dollar has not fallen to its death, no matter how many times it was called. The demand for dollars is not sentiment. It is built into the act of buying America.

For years the prediction was the same. The dollar is about to collapse. It keeps not happening. Here is the piece most people miss. Dollar strain and record stock markets are not a contradiction. They are two different things. The strain is real. But so is this. Global capital keeps flowing into US assets, because out of the whole world, this is where the growth and the liquidity are. And to buy US assets, you need US dollars. So the flows themselves put a bid under the dollar. Money comes in, it has to become dollars first, and that keeps the dollar strong against everything else. That is why the dollar has not fallen to its death, no matter how many times it was called. The demand for dollars is not sentiment. It is built into the act of buying America.

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🚨Peter Schiff: China🇨🇳 is silently dumping the dollar, a US🇺🇸 dollar crisis is coming soon! ‘China is gradually weaning themselves off of the dollar. That’s why, if you look at their holdings of US Treasuries, they’ve actually gone down a bit over the years. If you look at all the new Treasuries we’ve issued over the years, the fact that the Chinese haven’t bought any of them is a big deal because they used to be a main buyer of these assets. Instead of buying more Treasuries, they’ve bought more gold. So if you look at US dollar debt as a percentage of all the reserves the Chinese own, Treasuries are a much smaller percentage of their total reserves than they once were, especially if you consider the appreciation of gold. I would guess the reason they’re not moving more dramatically is because they probably don’t want to cause a crash, the dollar to implode, the Treasury market to implode, because they are trying to sell and want to get a decent price. So I think they’re happy to slowly bleed it off to try to get that good price. They just have to worry about the impact on the dollar, because if they try to dump too many dollars at once, the dollar could go down, and especially if a lot of other countries see that and want to get out. There could be a run on the dollar. If all the holders decide they want to get out, they don’t want to be the last one holding the dollar, and so it becomes a rush, and we could be in a US dollar crisis relatively soon anyway… I think we’re heading for a real crisis in the US, and I think countries that are smart would be trying to get ahead of that by selling whatever they can, as quietly as they can, out of US dollars and any US dollar-denominated debt.’ -Peter Schiff on Going Underground

🚨Peter Schiff: China🇨🇳 is silently dumping the dollar, a US🇺🇸 dollar crisis is coming soon! ‘China is gradually weaning themselves off of the dollar. That’s why, if you look at their holdings of US Treasuries, they’ve actually gone down a bit over the years. If you look at all the new Treasuries we’ve issued over the years, the fact that the Chinese haven’t bought any of them is a big deal because they used to be a main buyer of these assets. Instead of buying more Treasuries, they’ve bought more gold. So if you look at US dollar debt as a percentage of all the reserves the Chinese own, Treasuries are a much smaller percentage of their total reserves than they once were, especially if you consider the appreciation of gold. I would guess the reason they’re not moving more dramatically is because they probably don’t want to cause a crash, the dollar to implode, the Treasury market to implode, because they are trying to sell and want to get a decent price. So I think they’re happy to slowly bleed it off to try to get that good price. They just have to worry about the impact on the dollar, because if they try to dump too many dollars at once, the dollar could go down, and especially if a lot of other countries see that and want to get out. There could be a run on the dollar. If all the holders decide they want to get out, they don’t want to be the last one holding the dollar, and so it becomes a rush, and we could be in a US dollar crisis relatively soon anyway… I think we’re heading for a real crisis in the US, and I think countries that are smart would be trying to get ahead of that by selling whatever they can, as quietly as they can, out of US dollars and any US dollar-denominated debt.’ -Peter Schiff on Going Underground

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Peter Schiff: BRICS nations should minimise US🇺🇸 exposure and trade among THEMSELVES, stop subsidising America's deficits 'BRICS nations have been vendor-financing the US economy, and ultimately this is going to come back to bite them. And I think they pretty much could figure this out. There are interests that make money off of the relationship with the United States, and so those interests would be harmed to the extent that there was a big drop in the dollar and trade contracted with the US. But others would benefit dramatically from that change, especially the people who live and work in those BRICS nations, because they would see a big increase in their domestic purchasing power, and so more of what they produce they would get to consume, and that would improve their lives. Allowing Americans to enjoy the fruits of their labour does not improve their lives.' -Peter Schiff, Host of 'The Peter Schiff Show' on the latest episode of New Order. Watch the full interview in the quoted post below. 👇 Peter Schiff

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361,911 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

🇺🇸 69 𝕏 MINUTES | PETER SCHIFF: “THE U.S. ECONOMY IS A BUBBLE BUILT ON GLOBAL CHARITY — AND THE CLOCK JUST RAN OUT” Peter Schiff, who called the 2008 crash, says this next one will be worse — a full-blown inflationary depression, not just a recession. His thesis? The U.S. has been faking prosperity since 2008, living off printed money, foreign credit, and the illusion that deficits don’t matter. Schiff: "We are heading into an economic collapse the likes of which no living American has ever seen. U.S. stocks and bonds are going way down — foreigners are done propping us up. Crypto? It’s not digital gold. It’s digital risk. We sold off our cows to buy milk — and now we want to slap tariffs on milk with no cows left to produce it ourselves. Trump’s being told he’s holding a royal flush. He’s not. He’s drawn dead to an inside straight — and China’s got the nut. They have the factories, the infrastructure, the supply chain, the savings. We’ve got nothing.” Source: Peter Schiff, Justin Hart

🇺🇸 69 𝕏 MINUTES | PETER SCHIFF: “THE U.S. ECONOMY IS A BUBBLE BUILT ON GLOBAL CHARITY — AND THE CLOCK JUST RAN OUT” Peter Schiff, who called the 2008 crash, says this next one will be worse — a full-blown inflationary depression, not just a recession. His thesis? The U.S. has been faking prosperity since 2008, living off printed money, foreign credit, and the illusion that deficits don’t matter. Schiff: "We are heading into an economic collapse the likes of which no living American has ever seen. U.S. stocks and bonds are going way down — foreigners are done propping us up. Crypto? It’s not digital gold. It’s digital risk. We sold off our cows to buy milk — and now we want to slap tariffs on milk with no cows left to produce it ourselves. Trump’s being told he’s holding a royal flush. He’s not. He’s drawn dead to an inside straight — and China’s got the nut. They have the factories, the infrastructure, the supply chain, the savings. We’ve got nothing.” Source: Peter Schiff, Justin Hart

Mario Nawfal

295,666 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Most people read the dollar exactly backwards. A rising dollar looks like strength. Strong America, good economy, the Fed doing its job. A falling dollar looks like weakness. Inflation, debasement, the end of dollar dominance. It is the other way around. A rising dollar usually means global funding is tightening. The world is short of dollars and scrambling to find them. That is not strength. That is stress. Think of a hurricane coming and everyone rushing to buy bottled water. The price spikes. That does not mean the water got stronger. It means people are scared and desperate. The dollar works the same way. When it surges against everything at once, it is telling you dollars are getting scarce, not that America is winning. That is why the dollar spikes in crises. The 1997 Asian crisis. 2008. The 2015 emerging market squeeze. March 2020. The 2024 carry trade blow up. The pattern is not random. None of this is really about the Fed or money printing. The dollar's exchange value is mechanical. It runs on the eurodollar system, the offshore dollar funding made of bank balance sheets, collateral, repo, and swaps. The biggest driver is dealer balance sheets. When dealers expand, dollars flow and the world feels calm. When they pull back, dollars get scarce and the dollar climbs. And this is the part everyone gets wrong. When foreign central banks sell US treasuries, the headlines scream that they are dumping America. They are not. They are using their reserves exactly as designed. When their markets are short of dollars, they sell treasuries to supply them. Sell treasuries, the dollar goes up. That is stress, not rejection. Which is why the dollar doom story keeps failing. They said QE would destroy the dollar after 2008. They said the deficits would collapse it. It never happened, because the problem was never too many dollars. It was not enough usable ones in the right places. So when someone tells you a strong dollar means America is strong, be careful. The strongest looking dollar is often the biggest warning sign. And a falling dollar is usually just the storm passing.

Most people read the dollar exactly backwards. A rising dollar looks like strength. Strong America, good economy, the Fed doing its job. A falling dollar looks like weakness. Inflation, debasement, the end of dollar dominance. It is the other way around. A rising dollar usually means global funding is tightening. The world is short of dollars and scrambling to find them. That is not strength. That is stress. Think of a hurricane coming and everyone rushing to buy bottled water. The price spikes. That does not mean the water got stronger. It means people are scared and desperate. The dollar works the same way. When it surges against everything at once, it is telling you dollars are getting scarce, not that America is winning. That is why the dollar spikes in crises. The 1997 Asian crisis. 2008. The 2015 emerging market squeeze. March 2020. The 2024 carry trade blow up. The pattern is not random. None of this is really about the Fed or money printing. The dollar's exchange value is mechanical. It runs on the eurodollar system, the offshore dollar funding made of bank balance sheets, collateral, repo, and swaps. The biggest driver is dealer balance sheets. When dealers expand, dollars flow and the world feels calm. When they pull back, dollars get scarce and the dollar climbs. And this is the part everyone gets wrong. When foreign central banks sell US treasuries, the headlines scream that they are dumping America. They are not. They are using their reserves exactly as designed. When their markets are short of dollars, they sell treasuries to supply them. Sell treasuries, the dollar goes up. That is stress, not rejection. Which is why the dollar doom story keeps failing. They said QE would destroy the dollar after 2008. They said the deficits would collapse it. It never happened, because the problem was never too many dollars. It was not enough usable ones in the right places. So when someone tells you a strong dollar means America is strong, be careful. The strongest looking dollar is often the biggest warning sign. And a falling dollar is usually just the storm passing.

Jeffrey P. Snider

103,944 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Everyone expected $200 oil when the strait closed. It fell to the 60s instead, and one explanation almost nobody wants to hear: global demand is dying George Gammon flipped the entire debate on its head. While guests have argued supply and manipulation, his read is simpler and darker: China stopped buying because China doesn't need it. Their real estate market, once the LARGEST asset class on Earth, has erased twenty years of gains, a financial crisis playing out in slow motion. Saudi Arabia offering Asia discounts it hasn't given since 2020 tells the same story. Energy is the economy, and the economy is stalling. Then he told me about driving across Argentina trying to live on nothing but gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Nobody wanted any of it. Jewelers offered 50 PERCENT haircuts on gold coins. What everyone demanded instead was dollars, and even their own peso, melting 20 percent a MONTH, beat Bitcoin. His explanation is the network effect: the dollar is the iPhone, everything else is a flip phone, and to dethrone it you'd need something a hundred times better. Which is why his fear runs opposite to the crowd's. He doesn't worry about the dollar crashing down. He worries about it crashing UP, and taking the world with it. George Gammon

Everyone expected $200 oil when the strait closed. It fell to the 60s instead, and one explanation almost nobody wants to hear: global demand is dying George Gammon flipped the entire debate on its head. While guests have argued supply and manipulation, his read is simpler and darker: China stopped buying because China doesn't need it. Their real estate market, once the LARGEST asset class on Earth, has erased twenty years of gains, a financial crisis playing out in slow motion. Saudi Arabia offering Asia discounts it hasn't given since 2020 tells the same story. Energy is the economy, and the economy is stalling. Then he told me about driving across Argentina trying to live on nothing but gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Nobody wanted any of it. Jewelers offered 50 PERCENT haircuts on gold coins. What everyone demanded instead was dollars, and even their own peso, melting 20 percent a MONTH, beat Bitcoin. His explanation is the network effect: the dollar is the iPhone, everything else is a flip phone, and to dethrone it you'd need something a hundred times better. Which is why his fear runs opposite to the crowd's. He doesn't worry about the dollar crashing down. He worries about it crashing UP, and taking the world with it. George Gammon

Mario Nawfal

287,386 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Economist Richard Wolff: "We are living in a completely different world than we once were. The empire is declining. We are not strong, we are weak. We no longer produce the bulk of the world's output, nor do we control the bulk of global trade. The US dollar, which dominated the global monetary system throughout the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, no longer holds the same position. Central banks around the world once held dollars as the primary backing for their own currencies because the dollar was considered as good as gold. That is no longer the case. The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from around 70 to 80% to roughly 40%."

Economist Richard Wolff: "We are living in a completely different world than we once were. The empire is declining. We are not strong, we are weak. We no longer produce the bulk of the world's output, nor do we control the bulk of global trade. The US dollar, which dominated the global monetary system throughout the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, no longer holds the same position. Central banks around the world once held dollars as the primary backing for their own currencies because the dollar was considered as good as gold. That is no longer the case. The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from around 70 to 80% to roughly 40%."

Going Underground

17,097 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸 Oil should be $150 with a closed Hormuz, and the reason it isn't should scare you… Six months into a strangled strait, crude still sits near $80, which half the desk reads as proof the pain has been oversold. George Gammon reads that same number and sees something darker, because prices come from two sides, and while supply fell hard when the strait shut, demand fell harder still. Cheap oil right now isn’t strength, it’s the sound of a world buying less because it can’t afford more. He’s just as blunt about the sanctions everyone keeps waiting on, since those dollars don’t actually live in New York. The eurodollar system settles offshore, beyond Treasury’s reach, leaving Washington with one real tool: scaring banks into saying no. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT sounded devastating until you realize SWIFT is essentially text messaging between banks, so they picked up the phone instead and paid a little more for the trouble. Which brings the killer question, because making any of this bite would mean threatening India’s access to dollars, and nobody is doing that: “If sanctions worked, they would have worked before this whole thing blew up” His real warning isn’t about Treasury bonds at all, but corporate debt, where the AI giants are already burning cash and borrowing to keep building. Let rates climb high enough and the building stops, taking the thing quietly holding up the American economy down with it George Gammon

🇺🇸 Oil should be $150 with a closed Hormuz, and the reason it isn't should scare you… Six months into a strangled strait, crude still sits near $80, which half the desk reads as proof the pain has been oversold. George Gammon reads that same number and sees something darker, because prices come from two sides, and while supply fell hard when the strait shut, demand fell harder still. Cheap oil right now isn’t strength, it’s the sound of a world buying less because it can’t afford more. He’s just as blunt about the sanctions everyone keeps waiting on, since those dollars don’t actually live in New York. The eurodollar system settles offshore, beyond Treasury’s reach, leaving Washington with one real tool: scaring banks into saying no. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT sounded devastating until you realize SWIFT is essentially text messaging between banks, so they picked up the phone instead and paid a little more for the trouble. Which brings the killer question, because making any of this bite would mean threatening India’s access to dollars, and nobody is doing that: “If sanctions worked, they would have worked before this whole thing blew up” His real warning isn’t about Treasury bonds at all, but corporate debt, where the AI giants are already burning cash and borrowing to keep building. Let rates climb high enough and the building stops, taking the thing quietly holding up the American economy down with it George Gammon

Mario Nawfal

351,568 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen