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Chamath said something that reframes the entire Anthropic-Fable story. The scandal was never about a jailbreak. It was about Anthropic personally handing Amazon, Microsoft, and Google the justification to become the permanent gatekeepers of AI. Think about what that means. AI is the single most economically leveling technology ever...

47,277 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Chamath: Frontier AI Leaders “Created a Total F*cking Mess” Short-sighted fearmongering and immaturity from frontier AI leaders has created deep mistrust, threatening AI’s potential as an open engine of economic mobility. That mistrust gives hyperscalers the chance to position themselves as trusted gatekeepers, using KYC, audit trails, and compliance infrastructure to turn AI into an oligopoly. Chamath Palihapitiya on the All-In Pod: “I think the leaders of the frontier labs leave a lot to be desired. I think what we're seeing is a consistent pattern of evasiveness and immaturity, and I think that does a huge disservice to the entire movement of AI. The key to a vibrant life is rooted in economic mobility, and I think AI is the grand leveler. It is the thing that can enable everyone to have unique amounts of economic mobility because they are unencumbered to figure out what their upper bound is. And against that backdrop, we have to live in this constant doomerism, hype cycle, naivety, and I think it holds us back. How does it hold us back? Tactically, number one, it creates mistrust. I think that Silicon Valley was already decaying in the prestige that it held in American society. We built important things. Then we veered away from that, and we started building less important things. And now we're at a point where we've potentially started to rebuild important things again, but we have this veneer of negativity and mistrust that are created in large part because we just cannot get our sh*t together. And the leaders of the frontier labs are public enemy number one. Number two, I think what it creates, which I think is bad, but what it creates is an incredible opportunity for the hyperscalers. And the very simple opportunity is to convince governments all around the world, not just America, that they should be the gatekeeper. A: You can't trust these guys. B: These models are all over the place. C: Let us be the ones that provision them to the world. We will wrap it in KYC. I've been now talking about KYC for a while, right? Who are these customers? Do they have identification? Why are they allowed to run these models? What are they prompting? Let's keep them so that there's an audit trail. All of these things are going to become issues. The Frontier Lab folks made it an issue because of how they've handled all of this up until now. And what does that create? Now that creates an oligopoly for AI, the most powerful economically leveling instrument we've ever seen in the hands of maybe a handful of hyperscalers, who by the way, would make an incredibly compelling argument, and they would be right. And the only counterfactual to it would be, ‘Well, trust us, guys, it should actually be much more open and in a far more distributed environment.’ Can you imagine the cost and the complexity if you ask the neoscaler to build the same robust KYC or the same VPC infrastructure that Amazon and Microsoft and Google have spent decades investing trillions of dollars in? It's an impossibility, Jason. So you can take all of those datacenters off the map. You can take all of the neoscaler market off the map. All of this was preventable. So instead of a diverse, robust, open ecosystem giving a tool that is the fundamental unlock for humans, we are now going to debate gatekeeping and duopoly versus oligopoly. They have created a total f*cking mess, and it's a shame.”

The All-In Podcast

141,660 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

DAVID SACKS ON THE AI RACE: "The US is currently in an AI race, and our chief global competition is China, obviously. They're the only other country that has the talent, the resources, and the technology expertise to basically beat us in AI. And I think whoever wins this AI race, that's going to have tremendous ramifications for both our economy and our national security. Clearly, we want the US to be the winner, just like we were with the internet, and every other technology revolution before that […] We know that to win this AI race, we have to be the most innovative. You can't regulate your way just to beating your competitor. You have to out-innovate them. And we know that in the United States, the innovation comes from the private sector, not the government. So we have to do everything we can to help our companies win, to help them be innovative, and that means getting a lot of red tape out of the way… We have to have the most AI infrastructure in the US. It has to be the easiest place to build it. All of the new data centers that are going in, they require tremendous power, so getting ahead of the curve on energy, making sure we stand up all of this new infrastructure we're going to need to basically produce these AI factories… We want the US technology stack to dominate globally. We want to be the partner of choice for the whole world… I think everyone in Silicon Valley understands that the way that you win a technology race is to have the biggest ecosystem […] You just want everybody to be building on top of your technology stack, and that's what we want for the United States." David Sacks w/Marc Benioff Dreamforce

Ron Pragides 

231,781 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Jensen to AI Leaders: “We have to be far more thoughtful” when communicating to the public Jensen Huang: “(AI) is not a biological being. It is not alien. It is not conscious. It is computer software.” “We say things like, ‘We don't understand it at all.’ It is not true. We understand a lot of things about this technology.” Chamath: “If you were in the seat in the boardroom of Anthropic over that whole scuttlebutt with the Department of War, what do you think you would've told Dario and that team to do, maybe, differently to try to change some of this outcome and some of this perception?” Jensen: “The first thing that I would say about Anthropic is, first of all, the technology is incredible. We are a large consumer of Anthropic technology.” “The desire to warn people about the capability of the technology is also really terrific.” “We just have to make sure that we understand that the world has a spectrum, and that warning is good, scaring is less good because this technology is too important to us.” “I think that it is fine to predict the future, but we need to be a little bit more circumspect. We need to have a little bit more humility, that, in fact, we can't completely predict the future.” “And to say things that are quite extreme, quite catastrophic, that there's no evidence of it happening, could be more damaging than people think.” “And of course we are technology leaders.” “There was a time when nobody listened to us, but now because technology is so important in the social fabric, such an important industry, so important to national security, our words do matter.” “And I think we have to be much more circumspect, we have to be more moderate, we have to be more balanced, we have to be far more thoughtful.”

The All-In Podcast

57,581 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

David Sacks laid out the cleanest theory about why Anthropic keeps calling for government regulation of AI. The answer has nothing to do with safety and everything to do with market structure. Anthropic spent months writing blog posts warning that AI was dangerous. Dario gave interviews about existential risk. He published a piece calling for an FAA-style agency to approve all AI models before release. He primed government officials to treat frontier AI as a threat requiring oversight. Then one of Anthropic's own most trusted partners reported a credible jailbreak from Fable 5. And the government did exactly what Dario had spent months conditioning them to do. They rolled it back. Sacks called it on the All-In podcast. Dario got exactly what he wanted. The FAA for AI is not a safety mechanism. It is a moat. A government approval process for new model releases does not hurt Anthropic. They already have the models. It hurts every competitor who does not. It hurts open source models that cannot be regulated because there is no company to regulate. It hurts the Chinese labs only insofar as they care about the American market at all. The only companies that benefit from a labyrinthine government approval process are the ones already at the frontier who can afford to wait out the review cycle. That is Anthropic. That is OpenAI. Nobody else. The proof is in what they did not do. Chimath pointed it out directly. If you are genuinely worried about misuse, you implement know-your-customer verification. You make people identify themselves before accessing the most powerful models. Anthropic could have done that tomorrow. They did not. They do not want KYC. KYC is transparent. KYC can be audited. KYC gives users due process. What they built instead was an invisible surveillance system that profiles you, degrades your access without telling you, and asks the government to make sure no one else can offer you an alternative. If you thought this was safety then you are wrong. That is capture. Sacks said the response should be simple. Fix the jailbreak, come back to market, and do not reward Dario with the regulatory architecture he has been engineering for years. We will see if anyone is listening. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

Ihtesham Ali

25,284 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

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Elon Musk was asked how fast AI is moving. His answer wasn’t about the technology. It was about the one man who got it all right and was still too conservative. Musk: “I have to give credit to Ray Kurzweil in being actually remarkably accurate in his predictions. If anything, I think he was perhaps a bit conservative in his predictions.” Kurzweil spent 30 years making forecasts that made serious people uncomfortable. He predicted timelines that sounded impossible. He was mocked for it. He was right about nearly all of them. And Musk just called him conservative. Musk: “The dedicated AI compute appears to be growing by a factor of 10 every six months.” 10x every six months. Musk: “Almost a 100x improvement per year, at least for the next few years.” Moore’s Law was a 2x improvement every two years. That single curve drove every technological shift of the last 50 years. The internet. Smartphones. Cloud computing. All of it rode a 2x curve. AI is on a 100x curve. And the current infrastructure isn’t running beside the new one. It’s becoming it. Musk: “Probably a lot of the data centers, maybe most of the data centers that currently do conventional compute, will transition to AI compute.” Everything that runs the world you know is being rewired for the world that comes next. Human beings process the future in straight lines. We take the speed of the last decade and project it forward. Exponential growth doesn’t work that way. It’s invisible until it’s everywhere. The most aggressive forecaster in the history of technology was too conservative. That’s not about Kurzweil being wrong about the direction. That’s about the human brain being wrong about the speed. The limit was never the technology. It was the organ we use to comprehend it. And that organ hasn’t been upgraded in 200,000 years.

Dustin

214,158 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Sam Altman just told you exactly how OpenAI treats the human race. Not in a leaked memo. Not through a whistleblower. On camera. In his own words. Altman: “I think one of the most important strategic insights in the history of OpenAI was deciding we were gonna pursue iterative deployment.” The most important move in the history of the company was to release the technology before they understood it. Not after it was safe. Before. Altman: “Society and technology are a co-evolving system.” Co-evolution means neither side is driving. The machine changes us. We change the machine. Nobody is steering the outcome. This is not a product launch philosophy. This is an admission that the experiment was always designed to be run on us. Altman: “I don’t think we’re gonna solve that, like, thinking really hard about it theoretically. We’re gonna have to, like, learn from the contact with reality.” Contact with reality. That is the phrase the CEO of the most powerful AI company on Earth chose to describe what happens when his technology meets eight billion people. Not careful integration. Not measured rollout. Contact with reality. The language of test pilots describing what happens when an untested airframe hits the atmosphere. The entire promise of AI safety was that the machine would be understood before it was unleashed. Altman just admitted that promise was always a fantasy. You cannot model how intelligence reshapes civilization by running simulations. The second and third order effects are invisible until they detonate. So they shipped it. Altman: “You have to learn as you go. You have to adapt with a tight feedback loop.” Tight feedback loop means they watch what breaks. They measure the collision between human psychology and machine output in real time. Every conversation you have with ChatGPT is a data point in a civilizational stress test you never consented to. Every prompt. Every confession. Every question you would never ask another human being. That is the feedback loop. You are not the customer. You are the contact with reality. Philosophers spent centuries asking whether humanity would ever encounter an intelligence that learned from us faster than we could process what it was doing. That is not a theoretical question anymore. It is running on your phone right now. And the man building it just told you the only way to understand what it does to us is to let it happen. No simulation. No safety net. No control group. Just the experiment, running at the speed of conversation, on a species that will not be the same one that started it.

Dustin

27,714 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Jensen Huang just delivered the most important warning no one in Washington is ready to hear. Not about China. About what America is doing to itself. Huang: “We should always have the best technology here. We should always have the most technology here, and the first. But we should also try to compete and win around the world.” Washington heard that and locked onto China. Jensen wasn’t talking about China. He was talking about India. The Middle East. Africa. Southeast Asia. The next two billion people coming online. All of them about to build on somebody’s AI stack. The question was never whether they get the technology. The question is whose name is on it. Huang: “It requires some amount of nuance, some amount of maturity, instead of absolutes. The world is just not absolute.” Washington doesn’t do nuance. Washington does ban lists. Restriction is now the entire American AI strategy. Not deployment. Not adoption. Not global capture. Restriction. As if you win a technology race by refusing to run it. And nobody in Washington understands what happens when you cut somebody off. They don’t stop. They build their own. Every restriction is an invitation to innovate without you. Every ban is a blueprint for independence. Every chip you refuse to sell is a chip someone else learns how to make. You are not slowing competitors down. You are giving them the one thing they never had before. Motivation to never need you again. That is not a hypothetical. That is the pattern. Every single time. Countries that cannot count on American access stop waiting for it. They invest. They recruit. They accelerate. They make breakthroughs they never would have made if Washington had just shown up and competed. You don’t contain progress by withholding it. You pour jet fuel on the one outcome you were trying to prevent. Meanwhile the people making these decisions have never built anything. Not a chip. Not a model. Not a product. Not a company. Bureaucrats writing regulation for an industry they cannot even describe accurately. Committees moving at the speed of subcommittee. And the entire American AI future is being filtered through people whose greatest technological achievement is a shared Google Doc. And here is what no one in that room wants to admit. The United States is not competing against Chinese technology. It is competing against Chinese willingness to show up. While Congress debates which chips to block, Beijing is already on a plane. Signing infrastructure deals across four continents. Not with better hardware. With available hardware. And available has beaten superior in every technology war ever fought. VHS over Betamax. Android over iOS globally. The best product never wins. The most adopted one does. Standards are not products. Standards are dependency. The kind that compounds for generations. Every country running American AI is locked into the American ecosystem permanently. Every country that isn’t belongs to somebody else. And every country America cut off is now building infrastructure designed to ensure it never has to ask again. Huang: “Your policy and what you imagined literally caused the United States to concede the second largest market in the world for no good reason at all.” That is not an opinion. That is the man building the infrastructure of the future telling Washington it is engineering its own irrelevance. The cruelest part is not that America could lose the AI race. It is that America could lose it while being absolutely certain it is winning. Because restriction feels like power. It feels like control. Like dominance. Like you are holding every card. But you are not holding anything. You are just not playing. And every day you sit there writing rules instead of shipping technology, someone else is filling the vacuum you created. History never remembers who built the best technology. Only whose technology the world was already running on when it mattered.

Dustin

46,120 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Chamath Palihapitiya just said what Silicon Valley is terrified to say out loud. On Joe Rogan. To millions of people. Without flinching. Chamath: “The only person that we can trust is Elon.” Not whispered at a dinner party. Not buried in a podcast nobody listens to. Said on the record. Full weight behind it. And then he told you why. Chamath: “I feel like he’s the least corruptible. He’s the most independent thinking. And I think he’s the one that has an actual empathy for people.” One of the sharpest capital allocators in Silicon Valley history looked at every founder building AI. Every single one. And chose the one the media spends the most energy telling you to hate. That alone should stop you cold. Chamath: “Then there are folks where there’s just an insane profit motive.” He’s talking about OpenAI. He’s talking about Google. He’s talking about companies that swallowed billions from Wall Street and now answer to shareholders before they answer to humanity. Chamath: “They’re less in control of the businesses that they run.” The people building the most powerful technology in human history do not control their own companies. Their boards do. Their investors do. Their liquidation preferences do. And these are the ones we’re trusting with superintelligence. Chamath: “He’s like, I need to get to Mars.” This is the fracture line nobody wants to touch. Every other AI founder is optimizing for the next earnings call. The next funding round. The next quarterly number that keeps the machine fed. Elon is optimizing for the next planet. One group builds to satisfy investors. The other builds to survive as a species. Those aren’t different strategies. Those are different operating systems running on different hardware. And it changes everything about how you build. When your time horizon is 90 days, you cut corners. You monetize behavior. You trade safety for speed because the board needs a number by Friday. When your time horizon is interplanetary, you can’t afford a single shortcut. Because shortcuts don’t survive launch. Chamath: “Where is this going to end up?” The only question that matters. And nobody in power wants you asking it. Because the answer comes down to who gets there first. If it’s a company owned by Wall Street, superintelligence becomes the most sophisticated extraction engine ever built. Every decision optimized. Every behavior predicted. Every market captured. Not for you. For the balance sheet. If it’s someone who can’t be bought, pressured, or voted out by a board of directors, there’s at least a chance it bends toward something bigger than quarterly revenue. History never remembers who built the most powerful technology. It remembers who controlled it. And what they used it for. The only founder in AI who cannot be fired by a board, leveraged by an investor, or replaced by a shareholder vote is the one they spend the most energy telling you not to trust. Ask yourself why.

Dustin

143,758 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce