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Charlie Munger: "Warren talks about these discounted cash flows. I've never seen him do one."
889,083 просмотров • 3 лет назад •via X (Twitter)
Комментарии: 10

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Yeah I wholeheartedly agree with Munger & Buffett's POV on this. Spending more than 30 minutes on financial modeling is wasting time. Simplistic, overarching assumptions work better than in depth calculus. Revenue bucket proportions, margins for each bucket while accounting for potential tailwinds/headwinds, a pessimistic multiple assumption to build a margin of safety & done.

If I could pick someone to live forever, it'd be Charlie. (Me 2nd though.)

he's trained himself to do do a simple DCF in his head if i remember correctly

If you're a beginner don't listen to this out of context video. Do a DCF, the more complex the better cause that's how you learn. You can find Buffett saying in some other video that he's been doing it for so long he knows most of the companies so it takes him less time.

Discussed this with some investment buddies earlier tonight. We agreed that you have to learn to value a company. You need to know the ins and outs of this and DCF is one of the best methods. But once you reach a certain amount of experience in this, you don't need to do the DCF anymore. You process all the steps that make the DCF valuable in your head. You have to earn to use multiples.

Munger's wit shining through! 😄 Shows the importance of intuition in investing.

Discounted cash flow is a concept you can get a feel for, without having to go through the details.

it’s valuable to have a mathematical model to help with decision-making. It’s even more valuable to have that model in the form of intuition . math without intuition is too slow and intuition without math is to imprecise.

It's disheartening! Isn't it? At the same time, it is also good news. You really don't need to do too much math. Just a back-of-the-envelope intuitive math should be enough.


