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Chastity: Timelines Archive: Podcast:

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Edge

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17,459 views • 3 years ago •via X (Twitter)

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What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025? Was it just vibes? Faulty analysis? Unexpected technical results? I try to make sense of what drove the wild swings in sentiment: • The great timelines contraction (00:47) • Why timelines went back out again (02:10) • Longstanding reasons AGI could take a long time (11:13) • So what's the upshot of all of these updates? (14:47) • 5 reasons the radical pessimists are still wrong (16:54) • Even long timelines are short now (23:54) (On the 80,000 Hours Podcast, links below.)
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