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73,783 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Mark Zuckerberg is bankrupting a $22 billion startup because they refused to sell to him. The company is Kalshi. They run the largest prediction market in the US. Users bet real money on real-world outcomes. Last year, prediction markets did $28 billion in monthly volume across the industry. This month, they did $220 BILLION. The sector literally 8x'd in a single year. Bernstein now projects the entire prediction market industry will hit $1 TRILLION by 2030. Zuckerberg saw the growth curve coming. Last year, when Kalshi was valued at only $2 billion, he sat down with founder and CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss buying the entire company. Mansour said no. Kalshi went on to raise at $11 billion in December. Then $22 billion in March. It is now pursuing a $40 billion round and openly weighing an IPO. Zuckerberg's response: He walked back to Meta headquarters, took every piece of information he learned in that meeting, and directed a small internal team to build a Kalshi clone from the ground up. Meta's version is called Arena. It uses Llama to generate the questions. Every one of Meta's 3.5 billion daily users will get access. And here's where the plan gets ruthless... Meta is deliberately launching with play money. That single decision lets Zuckerberg dodge every gambling regulator on Earth while he trains billions of users to bet on prediction markets. Meanwhile Kalshi is spending millions fighting state gambling laws, the CFTC, an Illinois sports tax, a Minnesota felony statute, and the Department of Justice. Kalshi is the crash test dummy. Meta is the getaway driver. The moment the regulatory war is settled, Zuckerberg flips the switch. Arena becomes a real-money market, and 3.5 billion users are already trained to use it. Kalshi's user base of a few million cannot compete. This is the exact playbook Meta ran on Snapchat in 2016 when Instagram Stories launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on TikTok in 2020 when Reels launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on Twitter in 2023 when Threads launched. The FTC took Meta to court over this pattern last year and called it "buy or bury." The judge sided with Meta. So the playbook is legally protected. Tarek Mansour walked into a meeting with the most predatory copycat in tech history and gave him the entire pitch deck for the fastest growing product in Silicon Valley. Six months later, Zuckerberg is executing on that intel while Mansour is stuck defending his company in courts across America. Kalshi survived Zuckerberg's offer. But it probably will not survive Zuckerberg's clone. Meta ended Q1 with $81 billion in cash. That is enough to buy every prediction market company on Earth six times over. Zuckerberg is choosing to STEAL them instead because he can, and because the courts already gave him permission. The next 12 months will decide whether Kalshi becomes a $50 billion IPO or a cautionary tale about what happens when a founder says no to Meta. What do you think?

Ricardo

1,465,634 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

Man swings on officer while "back up" fumbles with her taser and basically looks on. ​Officers responded to 18th and Martin after receiving calls about a suspect, who identified himself as London, causing a disturbance and allegedly striking an elderly man. When officers made contact, London—who had just recently been released from jail and was still carrying his discharge paperwork—was immediately non-compliant. He refused to identify himself, ignored repeated commands, and continually tried to walk away. ​Things escalated fast when Officer Forrester moved in to detain him. London assaulted Officer Forrester which created a confrontation on a front lawn. ​While Officer Forrester worked to subdue the suspect, his female partner struggled to provide effective support. Throughout the struggle, she repeatedly tried and failed to get her Taser to function properly, even as Forrester called for assistance. ​At the height of the chaotic grapple, the situation hit peak panic when she suddenly shouted, "He's got my gun!"—a call that instantly ramps up the danger level for any officer in the middle of trying to gain control of a suspect. However, London did not disarm her, and backup officers quickly arrived to help Forrester subdue and handcuff the suspect. ​After London was secured, officers recovered a small bag of suspected methamphetamine from his pocket. He now faces serious charges, including Battery on a Law Enforcement Officer, Resisting Arrest / Obstruction, Possession of a Controlled Substance, and Disorderly Conduct. ​The tense post-arrest exchange between the officers says it all: while his partner tried to explain her equipment issues, Officer Forrester—visibly drained after the conflict—mostly brushed off the conversation, pointedly remarking that his own Taser worked just fine before stepping away to check his radio back in his cruiser. What level of force would have been needed if that female officer was all alone, I think we all know the answer to that. The real question is, are we creating more scenarios that have to elevate to that level because we are placing people on the street that have zero chance of physically restraining a suspect when needed?

Giggling Ganon

622,481 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen