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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇳 China did what the Gulf’s traditional security architecture couldn’t... While missiles flew and the Strait of Hormuz stayed under pressure, Beijing quietly cut oil imports by 3–5 million barrels a day and tapped its own reserves. The result: oil prices never fully delivered the $100–$120 shock many had... priced in. But the broader picture is less forgiving. LNG prices in Europe and East Asia have climbed 40% or more, and emerging Asian economies and lower-income consumers are absorbing the sharpest cost increases, with limited ability to switch fuels. Oil’s relative stability, by contrast, underscores the growing weight of Chinese stockpile management and demand flexibility in global balances. That capacity is now shaping market outcomes more directly than the long-standing U.S. military presence that underwrote Gulf energy security for decades. Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are responding in kind. They are reassessing the reliability of American security guarantees amid policy uncertainty and expanding economic linkages with China as a hedge. Six months into the conflict, and the lasting shift may not solely be the higher fuel prices alone. It is a more multipolar energy order in which regional governments prioritize flexibility, U.S. security commitments carry less automatic weight, and Chinese demand and reserves play a larger stabilizing role. Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) YT / Writer: Valshow more

Mario Nawfal

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72,033 views • 19 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are foundational to energy security, and without energy security, we have nothing. If you were listening to this conversation in 2023, you would have thought it was all about production… That is a big part, but as we have recently learned, the Gulf countries ALSO play an irreplaceable role in ensuring the movement of hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz to consumers around the globe. The security of the hydrocarbon supply chain is currently being tested. Since that conversation in May 2023, there is 20% less oil and liquified natural gas on the market, and the price of Brent crude is 40% higher. As a consequence the cost of everything we touch and consume is escalating at an alarming rate. Gulf countries play a more vital role than ever in ensuring energy security for the prosperity of all.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are foundational to energy security, and without energy security, we have nothing. If you were listening to this conversation in 2023, you would have thought it was all about production… That is a big part, but as we have recently learned, the Gulf countries ALSO play an irreplaceable role in ensuring the movement of hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz to consumers around the globe. The security of the hydrocarbon supply chain is currently being tested. Since that conversation in May 2023, there is 20% less oil and liquified natural gas on the market, and the price of Brent crude is 40% higher. As a consequence the cost of everything we touch and consume is escalating at an alarming rate. Gulf countries play a more vital role than ever in ensuring energy security for the prosperity of all.

Robert Friedland

11,033 views • 3 months ago

"China took advantage of the historically LOW OIL PRICES to build up their strategic RESERVES. Now, they have ~1.5 BILLION barrels, and that stockpile hasn't gone down... because IRAN is selling MORE oil to CHINA, and so are RUSSIA and VENEZUELA." Carl Zha noted that Beijing prepared for this exact war, and those who claim the US won't be harmed by soaring oil prices are ignoring the fact that the US may have oil... but everything else is "MADE IN CHINA."

"China took advantage of the historically LOW OIL PRICES to build up their strategic RESERVES. Now, they have ~1.5 BILLION barrels, and that stockpile hasn't gone down... because IRAN is selling MORE oil to CHINA, and so are RUSSIA and VENEZUELA." Carl Zha noted that Beijing prepared for this exact war, and those who claim the US won't be harmed by soaring oil prices are ignoring the fact that the US may have oil... but everything else is "MADE IN CHINA."

Rachel Blevins

74,813 views • 5 months ago

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺 Putin just landed in China and the number one agenda item isn't trade. It's the new security architecture for the Persian Gulf. Fmr. CIA Analyst Larry Johnson explains that Russia, China, and Pakistan are working in concert to pull Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE away from the U.S. and into a new security bloc anchored by Turkey, Saudi, and Iran. Meanwhile China is at its lowest U.S. Treasury holding since pre-2008, Japan is dumping, and more countries are settling oil in yuan instead of dollars. The two pillars of U.S. global hegemony are cracking at the same time. SonofNewAmericanRevolution Karen Kwiatkowski

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺 Putin just landed in China and the number one agenda item isn't trade. It's the new security architecture for the Persian Gulf. Fmr. CIA Analyst Larry Johnson explains that Russia, China, and Pakistan are working in concert to pull Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE away from the U.S. and into a new security bloc anchored by Turkey, Saudi, and Iran. Meanwhile China is at its lowest U.S. Treasury holding since pre-2008, Japan is dumping, and more countries are settling oil in yuan instead of dollars. The two pillars of U.S. global hegemony are cracking at the same time. SonofNewAmericanRevolution Karen Kwiatkowski

Mario Nawfal

48,000 views • 3 months ago

CHINA WEAPONIZES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: THE 1.4 BILLION BARREL DEMAND STRIKE SET TO CRUSH OIL PRICES Troy W. Eckard of Eckard Enterprises has spent 41 years inside the oil and gas industry. He now reveals how the Strait of Hormuz has become a Bermuda Triangle of daily uncertainty and how China is weaponizing that chaos from the demand side in a way never seen before. What he describes next explains why oil prices may behave so differently in the months ahead. THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists. ➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play. THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON ➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market. ➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction. ➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated. ➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range. THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE ➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects. ➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate. ➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career. THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY ➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home. ➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required. ➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now. THE BOTTOM LINE China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense. This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #ChinaOilWeapon #HormuzBermudaTriangle #IntentionalDemandDestruction #OilPriceManipulation #EnergyGeopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaReserves

CHINA WEAPONIZES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: THE 1.4 BILLION BARREL DEMAND STRIKE SET TO CRUSH OIL PRICES Troy W. Eckard of Eckard Enterprises has spent 41 years inside the oil and gas industry. He now reveals how the Strait of Hormuz has become a Bermuda Triangle of daily uncertainty and how China is weaponizing that chaos from the demand side in a way never seen before. What he describes next explains why oil prices may behave so differently in the months ahead. THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists. ➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play. THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON ➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market. ➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction. ➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated. ➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range. THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE ➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects. ➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate. ➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career. THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY ➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home. ➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required. ➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now. THE BOTTOM LINE China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense. This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #ChinaOilWeapon #HormuzBermudaTriangle #IntentionalDemandDestruction #OilPriceManipulation #EnergyGeopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaReserves

Mark

47,024 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The same logic that gutted European economies could now be pointed straight at the Gulf. Alex Christoforou draws the parallel, and the picture is brutal. Europe sacrificed its industry, its energy security, and its growth for Washington's wars, and he says the Gulf states are watching the same script open on their own economies: "The purpose of a vassal is to be sacrificed at the feet of the empire, which is exactly what the Europeans are doing." If he's right, the Gulf capitals absorbing Iranian missiles for American bases are simply next in line. Alex Christoforou

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The same logic that gutted European economies could now be pointed straight at the Gulf. Alex Christoforou draws the parallel, and the picture is brutal. Europe sacrificed its industry, its energy security, and its growth for Washington's wars, and he says the Gulf states are watching the same script open on their own economies: "The purpose of a vassal is to be sacrificed at the feet of the empire, which is exactly what the Europeans are doing." If he's right, the Gulf capitals absorbing Iranian missiles for American bases are simply next in line. Alex Christoforou

Mario Nawfal

122,115 views • 1 month ago

🚨 U.S. STRATEGY EMERGING: CONTROL OF IRAN’S OIL AT THE CENTER OF THE WAR A growing argument from U.S. policy circles suggests the long-term objective of the conflict may go far beyond immediate military strikes. The strategy being discussed is simple but enormous in geopolitical terms: Remove Iran’s vast oil reserves from the control of the Islamic regime. Supporters of the campaign argue that once Iran’s energy resources are no longer controlled by what they describe as a hostile regime, the world would no longer face repeated crises in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical energy chokepoints on Earth. In the short term, the war is already pushing oil prices higher and disrupting shipping through the Gulf. But advocates of the strategy claim that in the long run, freeing Iran’s massive oil reserves could stabilize global energy markets and remove one of the world’s most volatile flashpoints. Iran holds some of the largest oil and gas reserves on the planet, meaning the stakes of the conflict stretch far beyond the battlefield — they reach directly into the future of the global energy system.

🚨 U.S. STRATEGY EMERGING: CONTROL OF IRAN’S OIL AT THE CENTER OF THE WAR A growing argument from U.S. policy circles suggests the long-term objective of the conflict may go far beyond immediate military strikes. The strategy being discussed is simple but enormous in geopolitical terms: Remove Iran’s vast oil reserves from the control of the Islamic regime. Supporters of the campaign argue that once Iran’s energy resources are no longer controlled by what they describe as a hostile regime, the world would no longer face repeated crises in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical energy chokepoints on Earth. In the short term, the war is already pushing oil prices higher and disrupting shipping through the Gulf. But advocates of the strategy claim that in the long run, freeing Iran’s massive oil reserves could stabilize global energy markets and remove one of the world’s most volatile flashpoints. Iran holds some of the largest oil and gas reserves on the planet, meaning the stakes of the conflict stretch far beyond the battlefield — they reach directly into the future of the global energy system.

Jim Ferguson

17,632 views • 6 months ago

🚨BREAKING: UAE🇦🇪 EXITS OPEC AND OPEC+, OPEC LOSES ITS THIRD LARGEST PRODUCER The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC after more than five decades, effective on the 1st of May. The UAE is a founding member, having joined in 1967, four years before the UAE itself was established. The UAE said the move reflects its national interest and its role in meeting market needs at a time when the Strait of Hormuz crisis has disrupted energy flows and kept oil prices elevated, and forecasted higher energy demand in the future. The UAE has ambitions to increase production from 3.4 million barrels per day to five million by 2027, which OPEC quotas would have constrained. The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ is a fundamental reordering of the global energy market, and a further shift towards multipolarity, with the UAE positioning itself to be at the forefront of meeting rising global energy demand. OPEC has long declined in its geopolitical power, and the UAE has decided to forge its own path with having no limits on increasing production, as the world reels from the energy shock unleashed by the Trump-Netanyahu war of aggression against Iran. The UAE is not the first in the GCC to leave OPEC, with Qatar leaving in 2019. The propaganda headlines you’ll be seeing of a UAE-Saudi conflict over the decision will likely amount to hot air. There will inevitably be short-term energy price instability, but countries around the world will rush to secure deals with the UAE to offset a major economic crisis caused by the war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The international institutions of old are increasingly irrelevant, and OPEC is widely seen as the organisation of yesterday. The future will likely involve energy institutions and mechanisms within BRICS, to facilitate stable energy prices in a multipolar world. The UAE’s exit from OPEC is just one step closer in that direction. With China and the global south set to drive economic growth this century, the UAE is now well-positioned to benefit from multipolarity, free of production caps, as long-term energy demand will continue climbing, as the nations of the global south develop their economies and increase living standards for their people. My live segment on RT

🚨BREAKING: UAE🇦🇪 EXITS OPEC AND OPEC+, OPEC LOSES ITS THIRD LARGEST PRODUCER The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC after more than five decades, effective on the 1st of May. The UAE is a founding member, having joined in 1967, four years before the UAE itself was established. The UAE said the move reflects its national interest and its role in meeting market needs at a time when the Strait of Hormuz crisis has disrupted energy flows and kept oil prices elevated, and forecasted higher energy demand in the future. The UAE has ambitions to increase production from 3.4 million barrels per day to five million by 2027, which OPEC quotas would have constrained. The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ is a fundamental reordering of the global energy market, and a further shift towards multipolarity, with the UAE positioning itself to be at the forefront of meeting rising global energy demand. OPEC has long declined in its geopolitical power, and the UAE has decided to forge its own path with having no limits on increasing production, as the world reels from the energy shock unleashed by the Trump-Netanyahu war of aggression against Iran. The UAE is not the first in the GCC to leave OPEC, with Qatar leaving in 2019. The propaganda headlines you’ll be seeing of a UAE-Saudi conflict over the decision will likely amount to hot air. There will inevitably be short-term energy price instability, but countries around the world will rush to secure deals with the UAE to offset a major economic crisis caused by the war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The international institutions of old are increasingly irrelevant, and OPEC is widely seen as the organisation of yesterday. The future will likely involve energy institutions and mechanisms within BRICS, to facilitate stable energy prices in a multipolar world. The UAE’s exit from OPEC is just one step closer in that direction. With China and the global south set to drive economic growth this century, the UAE is now well-positioned to benefit from multipolarity, free of production caps, as long-term energy demand will continue climbing, as the nations of the global south develop their economies and increase living standards for their people. My live segment on RT

Afshin Rattansi

18,021 views • 4 months ago

HORMUZ: THE WORLD’S ENERGY LIFELINE 🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz, just 33km wide between Iran, Oman, and the UAE, channels roughly 20% of the world’s oil every day, about 18-21M barrels from Gulf producers. 🇮🇳 India would feel the biggest hit, importing 85% of its oil, much of it from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Fuel prices could skyrocket, industries shut down, and jobs lost. 🇨🇳 China comes next, with 40% of its oil passing through the strait. A blockade could shake its economy, with ripple effects around the globe. 🇯🇵 Japan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the UAE all rely heavily on Hormuz for energy. 🇦🇪 Even the UAE’s backup pipeline can only cover part of its exports, leaving the country vulnerable to major disruption. 🇪🇺 Europe is not immune. Countries like France, Germany, and Italy get a small but critical portion of oil through Hormuz, and global prices could soar past $150 a barrel, sparking inflation and recession risks. Since the U.S.-Israel vs Iran war escalated, traffic through the strait has nearly stopped, with tankers stranded and Gulf pipelines stretched. Iran says it targets only hostile vessels but the fear alone is enough to disrupt global markets. Source: Alex Berhe

HORMUZ: THE WORLD’S ENERGY LIFELINE 🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz, just 33km wide between Iran, Oman, and the UAE, channels roughly 20% of the world’s oil every day, about 18-21M barrels from Gulf producers. 🇮🇳 India would feel the biggest hit, importing 85% of its oil, much of it from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Fuel prices could skyrocket, industries shut down, and jobs lost. 🇨🇳 China comes next, with 40% of its oil passing through the strait. A blockade could shake its economy, with ripple effects around the globe. 🇯🇵 Japan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the UAE all rely heavily on Hormuz for energy. 🇦🇪 Even the UAE’s backup pipeline can only cover part of its exports, leaving the country vulnerable to major disruption. 🇪🇺 Europe is not immune. Countries like France, Germany, and Italy get a small but critical portion of oil through Hormuz, and global prices could soar past $150 a barrel, sparking inflation and recession risks. Since the U.S.-Israel vs Iran war escalated, traffic through the strait has nearly stopped, with tankers stranded and Gulf pipelines stretched. Iran says it targets only hostile vessels but the fear alone is enough to disrupt global markets. Source: Alex Berhe

Mario Nawfal

101,929 views • 6 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇳 What if this war was never really about Iran? While everyone watches missiles and oil prices, the real pressure point is energy. Kharg Island handles around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and most of that oil flows to Asia, especially China. That’s the part people are starting to connect. If Iranian oil gets disrupted, China loses a major cheap energy source. And in a global economy built on energy costs, that matters more than any single strike. Some analysts believe China was the real target. Source: hanocrypto

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇳 What if this war was never really about Iran? While everyone watches missiles and oil prices, the real pressure point is energy. Kharg Island handles around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and most of that oil flows to Asia, especially China. That’s the part people are starting to connect. If Iranian oil gets disrupted, China loses a major cheap energy source. And in a global economy built on energy costs, that matters more than any single strike. Some analysts believe China was the real target. Source: hanocrypto

Mario Nawfal

254,288 views • 5 months ago

🇮🇷 Oil just blew past $100 a barrel because last week the market was still in full denial mode. Traders figured “eh, these threats never actually happen” and remembered Trump always saying no more Middle East wars plus how sensitive he is to gas prices. The only thing that actually fixes this is reopening the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Source: CSIS // Center for Strategic & International Studies

🇮🇷 Oil just blew past $100 a barrel because last week the market was still in full denial mode. Traders figured “eh, these threats never actually happen” and remembered Trump always saying no more Middle East wars plus how sensitive he is to gas prices. The only thing that actually fixes this is reopening the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Source: CSIS // Center for Strategic & International Studies

Mario Nawfal

46,615 views • 6 months ago

The Oil Shock Is Hitting A Supply Chain Already Rewired Under Stress The real danger here is hat the global economy is entering the worst energy shock of our lifetimes after already spending the last year rewiring trade under tariff pressure, China decoupling, front loaded inventories, and longer supply routes. That matters because fragility rarely comes from one shock. It comes when one shock lands on top of a system that already had its buffers removed. The China Trade Collapse The China trade collapse is real. Census data shows U.S. goods imports from China fell from $438.7 billion in 2024 to $308.4 billion in 2025, a decline of almost 30%. U.S. exports to China fell from $143.2 billion to $106.3 billion, and the bilateral goods deficit dropped to $202.1 billion, the lowest level in years. That is not a blip. That is structural decoupling. But the key nuance is that global trade did not collapse with it. UNCTAD says global trade still grew about 7.5% in 2025 to a record $35 trillion, while BEA data shows total U.S. imports rose 4.8% and the overall trade deficit barely moved, falling only 0.2% to $901.5 billion. The Rerouting Illusion That means the world did not stop trading. It rerouted. China was partly replaced by Mexico, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, and other nodes. On paper, that looks like resilience. In reality, it also means more complexity, more shipping dependence, more customs friction, more insurance risk, more working capital tied up in inventory, and more fuel burned per unit of goods moved. The supply chain survived the tariff shock by becoming less efficient. Now Place An Oil Shock On Top Of That The IEA says global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, while stocks outside the Middle East Gulf fell by 205 million barrels as Hormuz flows were choked off. It also said oil export losses now exceed 13 million barrels per day, with cumulative supply losses of more than 360 million barrels in March and 440 million projected for April. The peak daily supply loss is already above 12 million barrels per day, larger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo at roughly 4.5 million barrels per day and the 1978 to 1979 Iranian Revolution at roughly 5.6 million. The Inventory Signal The chart is showing the physical cushion disappearing. Once inventories fall fast enough, price stops being the only rationing mechanism. The system starts rationing through behavior, policy, and scarcity. Airlines cut routes. Truckers pass through diesel costs. Food prices rise. Fertilizer gets tighter. Refineries prioritize. Governments release reserves. Then come pressure campaigns, fuel allocation, export controls, industrial curtailments, remote work mandates, speed limits, and priority access for military, emergency services, farming, and food logistics. What An Energy Lockdown Would Actually Look Like That is what an energy lockdown would look like. Not necessarily COVID style house arrest, but a forced reduction in mobility because the fuel system cannot support normal economic life at normal prices. The 1970s gave us gas lines, odd even rationing, Sunday station closures, and a 55 mph speed limit. Today’s version would be more technocratic, more targeted, and probably sold as temporary conservation. But the logic is the same. When energy is scarce, freedom of movement becomes a policy variable. My Take The oil shock is bad enough by itself. The real danger is that it is hitting a trade system already made more fragile by tariffs and China decoupling. Trade did not collapse in 2025. It rerouted. But rerouted trade depends on cheap, available fuel. If Hormuz stays disrupted, this becomes an inflation, logistics, food, credit, and political stability shock. The market is focused on the price of oil, but the real warning is the inventory draw. Once the spare barrels are gone, energy stops being managed by markets alone and starts being managed by allocation.

The Oil Shock Is Hitting A Supply Chain Already Rewired Under Stress The real danger here is hat the global economy is entering the worst energy shock of our lifetimes after already spending the last year rewiring trade under tariff pressure, China decoupling, front loaded inventories, and longer supply routes. That matters because fragility rarely comes from one shock. It comes when one shock lands on top of a system that already had its buffers removed. The China Trade Collapse The China trade collapse is real. Census data shows U.S. goods imports from China fell from $438.7 billion in 2024 to $308.4 billion in 2025, a decline of almost 30%. U.S. exports to China fell from $143.2 billion to $106.3 billion, and the bilateral goods deficit dropped to $202.1 billion, the lowest level in years. That is not a blip. That is structural decoupling. But the key nuance is that global trade did not collapse with it. UNCTAD says global trade still grew about 7.5% in 2025 to a record $35 trillion, while BEA data shows total U.S. imports rose 4.8% and the overall trade deficit barely moved, falling only 0.2% to $901.5 billion. The Rerouting Illusion That means the world did not stop trading. It rerouted. China was partly replaced by Mexico, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, and other nodes. On paper, that looks like resilience. In reality, it also means more complexity, more shipping dependence, more customs friction, more insurance risk, more working capital tied up in inventory, and more fuel burned per unit of goods moved. The supply chain survived the tariff shock by becoming less efficient. Now Place An Oil Shock On Top Of That The IEA says global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, while stocks outside the Middle East Gulf fell by 205 million barrels as Hormuz flows were choked off. It also said oil export losses now exceed 13 million barrels per day, with cumulative supply losses of more than 360 million barrels in March and 440 million projected for April. The peak daily supply loss is already above 12 million barrels per day, larger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo at roughly 4.5 million barrels per day and the 1978 to 1979 Iranian Revolution at roughly 5.6 million. The Inventory Signal The chart is showing the physical cushion disappearing. Once inventories fall fast enough, price stops being the only rationing mechanism. The system starts rationing through behavior, policy, and scarcity. Airlines cut routes. Truckers pass through diesel costs. Food prices rise. Fertilizer gets tighter. Refineries prioritize. Governments release reserves. Then come pressure campaigns, fuel allocation, export controls, industrial curtailments, remote work mandates, speed limits, and priority access for military, emergency services, farming, and food logistics. What An Energy Lockdown Would Actually Look Like That is what an energy lockdown would look like. Not necessarily COVID style house arrest, but a forced reduction in mobility because the fuel system cannot support normal economic life at normal prices. The 1970s gave us gas lines, odd even rationing, Sunday station closures, and a 55 mph speed limit. Today’s version would be more technocratic, more targeted, and probably sold as temporary conservation. But the logic is the same. When energy is scarce, freedom of movement becomes a policy variable. My Take The oil shock is bad enough by itself. The real danger is that it is hitting a trade system already made more fragile by tariffs and China decoupling. Trade did not collapse in 2025. It rerouted. But rerouted trade depends on cheap, available fuel. If Hormuz stays disrupted, this becomes an inflation, logistics, food, credit, and political stability shock. The market is focused on the price of oil, but the real warning is the inventory draw. Once the spare barrels are gone, energy stops being managed by markets alone and starts being managed by allocation.

EndGame Macro

41,818 views • 4 months ago

Venezuela represents a critical geopolitical focal point with far-reaching implications for the Western Hemisphere. Its proximity to the southern United States border places developments in the country squarely within the sphere of U.S. national security and regional stability considerations. Foreign influence, particularly from Russia and China, has been firmly established through military and intelligence installations. This presence near the United States provides strategic leverage with the potential to affect not only Latin America but also broader international negotiations and global power dynamics. Venezuela’s substantial energy reserves further elevate its strategic significance. Control over these resources impacts global energy markets and the international balance of power. Concurrently, ongoing political and economic instability drives migration across neighboring countries, creating humanitarian challenges and administrative pressures that reverberate throughout the region. The situation in Venezuela directly influences regional stability, U.S. security interests, and global strategic calculations. Bottom line: what is happening in Venezuela matters to the negotiations in Eastern Europe.

Venezuela represents a critical geopolitical focal point with far-reaching implications for the Western Hemisphere. Its proximity to the southern United States border places developments in the country squarely within the sphere of U.S. national security and regional stability considerations. Foreign influence, particularly from Russia and China, has been firmly established through military and intelligence installations. This presence near the United States provides strategic leverage with the potential to affect not only Latin America but also broader international negotiations and global power dynamics. Venezuela’s substantial energy reserves further elevate its strategic significance. Control over these resources impacts global energy markets and the international balance of power. Concurrently, ongoing political and economic instability drives migration across neighboring countries, creating humanitarian challenges and administrative pressures that reverberate throughout the region. The situation in Venezuela directly influences regional stability, U.S. security interests, and global strategic calculations. Bottom line: what is happening in Venezuela matters to the negotiations in Eastern Europe.

General Mike Flynn

149,460 views • 1 year ago

🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪🇨🇳 CHINA ACCUSES U.S. OF STEALING ITS OIL AFTER TRUMP DIVERTS VENEZUELAN CRUDE TO AMERICA China is livid, and they’re not hiding it. After Trump announced the U.S. will refine and sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil previously frozen under sanctions, Beijing fired back, calling the move a blatant power grab and a direct hit on their interests. Why? Because that oil wasn’t just sitting there, China had already paid for a big chunk of it, through loan-for-oil deals and state-backed agreements with Maduro’s regime. Trump’s plan? Ignore all that, break the blockade, grab the barrels, and reroute them to U.S. refineries. The pitch: American energy security, because the U.S. is in charge now. This is also about who gets to call the shots in Venezuela post-Maduro, and right now, Beijing just got boxed out while Washington takes over the chessboard. It’s a high-stakes geopolitical standoff over energy, influence, and who controls Latin America’s future. China just lost billions in oil access, but the U.S. just cashed in. Source: Reuters

🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪🇨🇳 CHINA ACCUSES U.S. OF STEALING ITS OIL AFTER TRUMP DIVERTS VENEZUELAN CRUDE TO AMERICA China is livid, and they’re not hiding it. After Trump announced the U.S. will refine and sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil previously frozen under sanctions, Beijing fired back, calling the move a blatant power grab and a direct hit on their interests. Why? Because that oil wasn’t just sitting there, China had already paid for a big chunk of it, through loan-for-oil deals and state-backed agreements with Maduro’s regime. Trump’s plan? Ignore all that, break the blockade, grab the barrels, and reroute them to U.S. refineries. The pitch: American energy security, because the U.S. is in charge now. This is also about who gets to call the shots in Venezuela post-Maduro, and right now, Beijing just got boxed out while Washington takes over the chessboard. It’s a high-stakes geopolitical standoff over energy, influence, and who controls Latin America’s future. China just lost billions in oil access, but the U.S. just cashed in. Source: Reuters

Mario Nawfal

2,227,692 views • 8 months ago

Washington is Furious as China Moves Into Latin America ▶️ Watch the full video: 🔹China signals a strategic shift, not a routine update: Beijing’s new policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean—its first major revision since 2016—frames the region as central to a changing global order, reflecting a more fragmented world and an open U.S.–China rivalry that challenges long-standing U.S. dominance under the Monroe Doctrine. 🔹Latin America positioned as part of the “Global South”: China explicitly casts the region as a political and strategic force in building a multipolar world, emphasizing a “community with a shared future,” opposition to hegemony, and the idea that the old, U.S.-led system is fading. 🔹Political alignment over ideology: Beijing stresses support for the One China principle, especially on Taiwan, while offering mutual backing on sovereignty. It seeks broad engagement not just with governments, but with legislatures, institutions, and political parties across the ideological spectrum, prioritizing long-term influence over ideological conformity. 🔹Economic sovereignty and de-dollarization: Beyond infrastructure and the Belt and Road Initiative, China is pushing reduced reliance on the U.S. dollar through local-currency trade, currency swaps, deeper central bank cooperation, and expanded Chinese financial institutions—laying groundwork for a parallel financial ecosystem. 🔹Expanding security and strategic ties: The roadmap includes deeper defense and security cooperation—military exchanges, training, disaster relief, counter-terrorism, and peacekeeping—framed under China’s Global Security Initiative as an alternative to U.S.-led security frameworks, signaling China’s ambition to be both an economic and security partner in the region.

Washington is Furious as China Moves Into Latin America ▶️ Watch the full video: 🔹China signals a strategic shift, not a routine update: Beijing’s new policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean—its first major revision since 2016—frames the region as central to a changing global order, reflecting a more fragmented world and an open U.S.–China rivalry that challenges long-standing U.S. dominance under the Monroe Doctrine. 🔹Latin America positioned as part of the “Global South”: China explicitly casts the region as a political and strategic force in building a multipolar world, emphasizing a “community with a shared future,” opposition to hegemony, and the idea that the old, U.S.-led system is fading. 🔹Political alignment over ideology: Beijing stresses support for the One China principle, especially on Taiwan, while offering mutual backing on sovereignty. It seeks broad engagement not just with governments, but with legislatures, institutions, and political parties across the ideological spectrum, prioritizing long-term influence over ideological conformity. 🔹Economic sovereignty and de-dollarization: Beyond infrastructure and the Belt and Road Initiative, China is pushing reduced reliance on the U.S. dollar through local-currency trade, currency swaps, deeper central bank cooperation, and expanded Chinese financial institutions—laying groundwork for a parallel financial ecosystem. 🔹Expanding security and strategic ties: The roadmap includes deeper defense and security cooperation—military exchanges, training, disaster relief, counter-terrorism, and peacekeeping—framed under China’s Global Security Initiative as an alternative to U.S.-led security frameworks, signaling China’s ambition to be both an economic and security partner in the region.

Lena Petrova

26,281 views • 8 months ago

Ahead of Pakistan’s participation in the SCO Heads of State meetings, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Shehbaz Sharif in Tianjin and Beijing, I shared Pakistan’s perspective on CGTN’s Global South Voices, highlighting the depth of Pak–China ties and the growing significance of SCO for our region. Pakistan’s all-weather strategic partnership with China is anchored in trust and strategic alignment. We value President Xi’s leadership and initiatives such as the Belt and Road, and the Global Development, Security & Civilization Initiatives, which continue to transform economies and strengthen regional integration. The SCO has become a pivotal Eurasian platform, advancing cooperation in security, trade, energy, connectivity, and culture under the principles of mutual trust and shared development. In today’s multipolar world, the SCO’s role in promoting multilateralism, stability, and inclusive growth is more vital than ever. I wish China every success in hosting the Summit, as collective commitments emerge for regional peace, prosperity, and cooperation. We also look forward to constructive high-level engagements with the Chinese leadership and with heads of other SCO member states.

Ahead of Pakistan’s participation in the SCO Heads of State meetings, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Shehbaz Sharif in Tianjin and Beijing, I shared Pakistan’s perspective on CGTN’s Global South Voices, highlighting the depth of Pak–China ties and the growing significance of SCO for our region. Pakistan’s all-weather strategic partnership with China is anchored in trust and strategic alignment. We value President Xi’s leadership and initiatives such as the Belt and Road, and the Global Development, Security & Civilization Initiatives, which continue to transform economies and strengthen regional integration. The SCO has become a pivotal Eurasian platform, advancing cooperation in security, trade, energy, connectivity, and culture under the principles of mutual trust and shared development. In today’s multipolar world, the SCO’s role in promoting multilateralism, stability, and inclusive growth is more vital than ever. I wish China every success in hosting the Summit, as collective commitments emerge for regional peace, prosperity, and cooperation. We also look forward to constructive high-level engagements with the Chinese leadership and with heads of other SCO member states.

Ishaq Dar

11,853 views • 1 year ago

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not just about oil. 30% of the world’s fertilizer moves through that chokepoint and prices are already up 77%. Tankers are burning, allies want help, and China and India are cutting their own deals. Americans may support strikes on Iran, but there is still strong opposition to putting US boots back in the Middle East. This is not just a security issue. It is an energy, food, and economic crisis.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not just about oil. 30% of the world’s fertilizer moves through that chokepoint and prices are already up 77%. Tankers are burning, allies want help, and China and India are cutting their own deals. Americans may support strikes on Iran, but there is still strong opposition to putting US boots back in the Middle East. This is not just a security issue. It is an energy, food, and economic crisis.

Jessica Tarlov

175,233 views • 6 months ago

$The U.S. is almost certainly the cleanest shirt in the laundry because it produces enormous amounts of oil and gas while the economies most dependent on Hormuz are overwhelmingly in Asia. But cleanest does not mean clean. Even in an extreme scenario where a prolonged energy and financial shock contributed to something approaching Great Depression scale economic damage, the U.S. could still emerge relatively stronger if its principal competitors suffered even greater destruction to their energy security, industrial capacity, financial systems and ability to project power. American households and businesses would suffer enormously, but U.S. energy production, food security, geography, capital markets and control over dollar liquidity provide shock absorbers many competitors simply do not possess. And that is the uncomfortable geopolitical question I keep coming back to. Great powers do not necessarily optimize for avoiding every domestic recession if policymakers believe the alternative is losing their position in the international order. If Washington concluded that a severe but survivable contraction at home would permanently weaken China more, fracture competing resource networks and leave the U.S. controlling a larger relative share of global financial, technological and energy power afterward, would it tolerate extraordinary domestic economic pain to preserve American primacy? I am not saying that is demonstrably the strategy. But in a genuine great power struggle, the relevant calculation may eventually become relative survivability rather than absolute prosperity.$

The U.S. is almost certainly the cleanest shirt in the laundry because it produces enormous amounts of oil and gas while the economies most dependent on Hormuz are overwhelmingly in Asia. But cleanest does not mean clean. Even in an extreme scenario where a prolonged energy and financial shock contributed to something approaching Great Depression scale economic damage, the U.S. could still emerge relatively stronger if its principal competitors suffered even greater destruction to their energy security, industrial capacity, financial systems and ability to project power. American households and businesses would suffer enormously, but U.S. energy production, food security, geography, capital markets and control over dollar liquidity provide shock absorbers many competitors simply do not possess. And that is the uncomfortable geopolitical question I keep coming back to. Great powers do not necessarily optimize for avoiding every domestic recession if policymakers believe the alternative is losing their position in the international order. If Washington concluded that a severe but survivable contraction at home would permanently weaken China more, fracture competing resource networks and leave the U.S. controlling a larger relative share of global financial, technological and energy power afterward, would it tolerate extraordinary domestic economic pain to preserve American primacy? I am not saying that is demonstrably the strategy. But in a genuine great power struggle, the relevant calculation may eventually become relative survivability rather than absolute prosperity.

EndGame Macro

51,399 views • 1 month ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 THE FRAGILE SHIELD: ARE U.S. ALLIES BECOMING DISPOSABLE? A crisis of trust is brewing among U.S. partners. As air defenses are stripped from frontline states to protect Israel, allies are beginning to question their "disposable" status. The U.S. presence in the Gulf and East Asia is supposed to provide security, but it is increasingly making these nations targets. When air defenses are moved from South Korea to the Middle East, it forces a massive rethink of global alliances and the reliability of American protection. Are U.S. bases a security guarantee or a liability? Glenn Diesen argues that the struggle for "hearts and minds" is being lost as priorities shift away from regional partners. Glenn Diesen

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 THE FRAGILE SHIELD: ARE U.S. ALLIES BECOMING DISPOSABLE? A crisis of trust is brewing among U.S. partners. As air defenses are stripped from frontline states to protect Israel, allies are beginning to question their "disposable" status. The U.S. presence in the Gulf and East Asia is supposed to provide security, but it is increasingly making these nations targets. When air defenses are moved from South Korea to the Middle East, it forces a massive rethink of global alliances and the reliability of American protection. Are U.S. bases a security guarantee or a liability? Glenn Diesen argues that the struggle for "hearts and minds" is being lost as priorities shift away from regional partners. Glenn Diesen

Mario Nawfal

58,616 views • 6 months ago

🚨IRREVOCABLE SHIFTS: THE MIDDLE EAST RECALIBRATES The escalation is drawing in regional powers, from Pakistan’s defense pact with Saudi Arabia to France and the UK sending assets to protect the Gulf. These nations are increasingly seeking security outside of the U.S. umbrella as the risk of an unintentional World War grows. If the U.S. appears "impotent and stupid" in the Strait of Hormuz, the shift toward BRICS, Russia, and China will accelerate. The results of this war, whether Iran wins or loses, will be a total regional recalibration that is disastrous for American interests. Daniel Davis Deep Dive

🚨IRREVOCABLE SHIFTS: THE MIDDLE EAST RECALIBRATES The escalation is drawing in regional powers, from Pakistan’s defense pact with Saudi Arabia to France and the UK sending assets to protect the Gulf. These nations are increasingly seeking security outside of the U.S. umbrella as the risk of an unintentional World War grows. If the U.S. appears "impotent and stupid" in the Strait of Hormuz, the shift toward BRICS, Russia, and China will accelerate. The results of this war, whether Iran wins or loses, will be a total regional recalibration that is disastrous for American interests. Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Mario Nawfal

119,794 views • 6 months ago