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cliff asness has called two bubbles in 30 years. both times it was the same number: "the expensive third of stocks divided by the cheap third. for 50 years it varied between about three and six times. at the peak of the tech bubble we saw that thing hit... show more

Goshawk Trades

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31,753 次观看 • 9 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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6 条评论

Trevor Scott 的头像

Trevor Scott9 天前

what is the metric though? fcf, pe, tobins q????

Jerry Capital 的头像

Jerry Capital8 天前

Cliff is a moron

QuantNerd 的头像

QuantNerd9 天前

He's a smart guy

Ram Mohammed Singh Azad Anthony 的头像

Ram Mohammed Singh Azad Anthony9 天前

Fascist Israeli spy

Roger 的头像

Roger8 天前

Worth a second look.

Alexander Stewart 的头像

Alexander Stewart8 天前

Valuation spreads can be extreme because the market is pricing different duration and profitability, not only irrationality. The useful test is whether subsequent cash-flow gaps were large enough to justify the spread ex ante. If not, dispersion itself was the bet.

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memories of XngHan and his friends (Heewon and Dahyun) 🍀 I transferred to SOPA during my first year of high school. At that time, those two—Heewon and Dahyun, who are members of CAN’T BE BLUE and also XngHan’s high school friends—were the first to approach me and become friendly. Because of that, I remained close with the friends I bonded with from the very beginning. 🍀 At our school, there were only two classes per major, so it was possible to be in the same class with the same classmates for all three years, and the probability of ending up in the same class was quite high—over 50%. I ended up being in the same class with them in both my first and third years. 🍀 We played basketball and soccer together, but we played basketball especially often. We also practiced together as a band many times.

memories of XngHan and his friends (Heewon and Dahyun) 🍀 I transferred to SOPA during my first year of high school. At that time, those two—Heewon and Dahyun, who are members of CAN’T BE BLUE and also XngHan’s high school friends—were the first to approach me and become friendly. Because of that, I remained close with the friends I bonded with from the very beginning. 🍀 At our school, there were only two classes per major, so it was possible to be in the same class with the same classmates for all three years, and the probability of ending up in the same class was quite high—over 50%. I ended up being in the same class with them in both my first and third years. 🍀 We played basketball and soccer together, but we played basketball especially often. We also practiced together as a band many times.

아란

11,412 次观看 • 8 个月前

Catherine Cortez Masto, one of three Senate Ds to vote for GOP bill 13 times: “I don't think we should swap the pain of some Americans for others… I think we can keep the government open and address this looming crisis of the health care cliff that we are seeing.”

Catherine Cortez Masto, one of three Senate Ds to vote for GOP bill 13 times: “I don't think we should swap the pain of some Americans for others… I think we can keep the government open and address this looming crisis of the health care cliff that we are seeing.”

Manu Raju

97,597 次观看 • 10 个月前

$🚨 S&P 500 REPEATING DOT COM CRASH SCENARIO Just look at the chart, we are perfectly repeating 2000 Dot Com Bubble fractal The top 10 stocks now control 40% of the entire index - concentration that has already exceeded the dot-com peak, when the top 10 held 27% In the last 28-session rally, just 10 stocks drove 69% of the gains Retail investors funneled $700 billion into equities since January - five times faster than during the dot-com bubble And the buyers chasing semiconductor stocks are already planning their exit at the first sign of slowing momentum That's exactly how even the strongest rallies collapse The dot-com Nasdaq fell 78% and took 15 years to recover its high The AI bubble has better fundamentals, but better fundamentals didn't save anyone in 2000 either Do you really think $700 billion of anxious retail money holds when momentum stalls? Save this. Come back in 18 months$

🚨 S&P 500 REPEATING DOT COM CRASH SCENARIO Just look at the chart, we are perfectly repeating 2000 Dot Com Bubble fractal The top 10 stocks now control 40% of the entire index - concentration that has already exceeded the dot-com peak, when the top 10 held 27% In the last 28-session rally, just 10 stocks drove 69% of the gains Retail investors funneled $700 billion into equities since January - five times faster than during the dot-com bubble And the buyers chasing semiconductor stocks are already planning their exit at the first sign of slowing momentum That's exactly how even the strongest rallies collapse The dot-com Nasdaq fell 78% and took 15 years to recover its high The AI bubble has better fundamentals, but better fundamentals didn't save anyone in 2000 either Do you really think $700 billion of anxious retail money holds when momentum stalls? Save this. Come back in 18 months

Pepesso

101,741 次观看 • 4 个月前

🚨 AI BUBBLE IS BIGGER THAN DOT-COM RIGHT NOW 🚨 Tech vs Dow ratio just printed 1.45 The 2000 dot-com peak was 1.17 We're 23% above the top that took 13 years to recover from The exact same ratio that called the top in 2000 is louder today than it was The retest targets the 0.618 fib - that's a 32% drop from here My take: Tech doesn't unwind this kind of stretch NOTIFS ON!

🚨 AI BUBBLE IS BIGGER THAN DOT-COM RIGHT NOW 🚨 Tech vs Dow ratio just printed 1.45 The 2000 dot-com peak was 1.17 We're 23% above the top that took 13 years to recover from The exact same ratio that called the top in 2000 is louder today than it was The retest targets the 0.618 fib - that's a 32% drop from here My take: Tech doesn't unwind this kind of stretch NOTIFS ON!

NoName

48,114 次观看 • 3 个月前

"Third day we hit the camp. My job was to kill the sentry with my knife. I was the knife guy and I was good at that. So, they had me scheduled to kill the first two guards of the century with my knife." "There was two others that was moving in between the trees and I saw the first one. I shot him double tap."

"Third day we hit the camp. My job was to kill the sentry with my knife. I was the knife guy and I was good at that. So, they had me scheduled to kill the first two guards of the century with my knife." "There was two others that was moving in between the trees and I saw the first one. I shot him double tap."

Shawn Ryan

510,636 次观看 • 1 年前

🚨 THE AI BUBBLE IS STARTING TO LOOK DANGEROUSLY SIMILAR TO THE DOT-COM BUBBLE. In 2000, tech stocks went vertical on endless internet hype before collapsing nearly -80%. Now in 2026, AI stocks have gone parabolic the exact same way: record valuations, record leverage, record retail speculation, and trillions flowing into companies with expectations priced for perfection. The scary part? The dot-com crash didn’t start when the hype was weakest. It started when euphoria was at peak.

🚨 THE AI BUBBLE IS STARTING TO LOOK DANGEROUSLY SIMILAR TO THE DOT-COM BUBBLE. In 2000, tech stocks went vertical on endless internet hype before collapsing nearly -80%. Now in 2026, AI stocks have gone parabolic the exact same way: record valuations, record leverage, record retail speculation, and trillions flowing into companies with expectations priced for perfection. The scary part? The dot-com crash didn’t start when the hype was weakest. It started when euphoria was at peak.

Crypto Rover

114,298 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 I WARNED YOU. THE 2026 BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO POP!!! Look at the chart. Two red circles. Two bubbles. 2006 and 2026 - both landing on the exact same marker: a "Good Times, High Prices, time to sell" year on a cycle map drawn 150 years ago. Here's why that should stop you cold. The last time this signal pointed here, it was 2006. Prices had blown past every historical ceiling into a record bubble. Everyone "knew" it only went up. The cycle said sell. Almost nobody did. You know what came next. 2008. It didn't just correct it took the banks, the credit system, and the entire stock market down with it. The S&P lost more than half its value. It wasn't a housing problem. It was an everything problem. Now look at 2026. Same B-year. Same "sell" signal. But a bigger bubble. Inflation-adjusted prices today are sitting above the 2006 peak - the literal top that caused the last crisis. Except this time it's not just one market. Stocks are at record highs. Valuations are at dot-com extremes. Credit is stretched. The whole system is inflated at once, all resting on the same tightening liquidity. 2006 was a warning that took two years to detonate. That's the danger of slow bubbles - they look calm right up until they're not. And here's the part most people are missing: this one isn't waiting. It's already cracking. This week alone - Korea down 10% in a single day, a global tech rout, the S&P sliding straight off its record high. The unwind everyone assumed was years away is printing on the screen right now. You don't have to believe a 19th-century cycle secretly runs the market. You just have to notice that the same marker which nailed the 2006 top is flashing again and this time, reality already started agreeing with it. The bubble doesn't ask permission before it pops. It just pops. And it's started.

🚨 I WARNED YOU. THE 2026 BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO POP!!! Look at the chart. Two red circles. Two bubbles. 2006 and 2026 - both landing on the exact same marker: a "Good Times, High Prices, time to sell" year on a cycle map drawn 150 years ago. Here's why that should stop you cold. The last time this signal pointed here, it was 2006. Prices had blown past every historical ceiling into a record bubble. Everyone "knew" it only went up. The cycle said sell. Almost nobody did. You know what came next. 2008. It didn't just correct it took the banks, the credit system, and the entire stock market down with it. The S&P lost more than half its value. It wasn't a housing problem. It was an everything problem. Now look at 2026. Same B-year. Same "sell" signal. But a bigger bubble. Inflation-adjusted prices today are sitting above the 2006 peak - the literal top that caused the last crisis. Except this time it's not just one market. Stocks are at record highs. Valuations are at dot-com extremes. Credit is stretched. The whole system is inflated at once, all resting on the same tightening liquidity. 2006 was a warning that took two years to detonate. That's the danger of slow bubbles - they look calm right up until they're not. And here's the part most people are missing: this one isn't waiting. It's already cracking. This week alone - Korea down 10% in a single day, a global tech rout, the S&P sliding straight off its record high. The unwind everyone assumed was years away is printing on the screen right now. You don't have to believe a 19th-century cycle secretly runs the market. You just have to notice that the same marker which nailed the 2006 top is flashing again and this time, reality already started agreeing with it. The bubble doesn't ask permission before it pops. It just pops. And it's started.

Shelpid.WI3M

63,709 次观看 • 2 个月前

Gilbert Arenas says calling LeBron James and the Lakers 2020 championship, the Mickey Mouse championship is the weirdest thing: “Because every star started in the bubble. Devin Booker was phenomenal in the bubble. Giannis showed who he was becoming in the bubble. Jokic got defeated in the bubble and he’s been the MVP or the runner MVP for six straight years since that bubble. Luka’s terror against the Clippers started in that bubble. Murray and Mitchell bubble. Jimmy Butler, right? This is where that all that was created. So to say the bubble was this Mickey Mouse chip. It just shows you how great I look at it like this. The harder they hate, the greater you are.” (Via Gilbert Arenas)

Gilbert Arenas says calling LeBron James and the Lakers 2020 championship, the Mickey Mouse championship is the weirdest thing: “Because every star started in the bubble. Devin Booker was phenomenal in the bubble. Giannis showed who he was becoming in the bubble. Jokic got defeated in the bubble and he’s been the MVP or the runner MVP for six straight years since that bubble. Luka’s terror against the Clippers started in that bubble. Murray and Mitchell bubble. Jimmy Butler, right? This is where that all that was created. So to say the bubble was this Mickey Mouse chip. It just shows you how great I look at it like this. The harder they hate, the greater you are.” (Via Gilbert Arenas)

NBA Courtside

896,751 次观看 • 2 个月前

Stephanie: “With the most recent deaths—two in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania—due to measles-related deaths. Please tell me if you think the measles MMR vaccination should be mandatory.” HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: “The so-called measles deaths in Lancaster County, I talked with the county coroner or the county commissioner this morning and he says there were no measles deaths.” “There was a press conference by the Governor [Josh Shapiro]. It was highly politicized and we saw a lot of the sort of old COVID playbook rolled out where there was finger-pointing and politicizing and fear-mongering.” “The governor has not been able to point to ANY CHILD who died from measles in Lancaster County.” “We've asked repeatedly the county health department has asked repeatedly. So we're trying to get that information. We've done better controlling measles than any country in the world.” “The epidemic is occurring because during COVID lockdowns children did not get vaccinated across the globe.” “We have one of the LOWEST measles incidents in the world. Mexico has 11 times the number of measles cases that we have. Canada has four times the number of measles cases. Britain has two times… We're doing it.” “There's no reason that anybody in America should be dying of measles in this day and age. There's no reason. It's malpractice if that happens.”

Stephanie: “With the most recent deaths—two in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania—due to measles-related deaths. Please tell me if you think the measles MMR vaccination should be mandatory.” HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: “The so-called measles deaths in Lancaster County, I talked with the county coroner or the county commissioner this morning and he says there were no measles deaths.” “There was a press conference by the Governor [Josh Shapiro]. It was highly politicized and we saw a lot of the sort of old COVID playbook rolled out where there was finger-pointing and politicizing and fear-mongering.” “The governor has not been able to point to ANY CHILD who died from measles in Lancaster County.” “We've asked repeatedly the county health department has asked repeatedly. So we're trying to get that information. We've done better controlling measles than any country in the world.” “The epidemic is occurring because during COVID lockdowns children did not get vaccinated across the globe.” “We have one of the LOWEST measles incidents in the world. Mexico has 11 times the number of measles cases that we have. Canada has four times the number of measles cases. Britain has two times… We're doing it.” “There's no reason that anybody in America should be dying of measles in this day and age. There's no reason. It's malpractice if that happens.”

RedWave Press

49,607 次观看 • 17 天前

When I saw this with my own eyes, one thought that came to mind was the famous opening line from A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens: It is the best of times for fishing, it is the worst of times for fish…

When I saw this with my own eyes, one thought that came to mind was the famous opening line from A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens: It is the best of times for fishing, it is the worst of times for fish…

Chun

99,527 次观看 • 1 年前

I think it’s safe to say that 2025 was a very interesting year. And I think I see it very differently than most. You probably saw a lot of headlines about AI and tech stocks. While that was a big story, I don’t think it was the most important thing. The big story in the investment world was the depreciation of the value of fiat money and how that impacted the price of gold. That’s how 2025 looked through my eyes, at least. I’m curious to hear if you see things the same way.

I think it’s safe to say that 2025 was a very interesting year. And I think I see it very differently than most. You probably saw a lot of headlines about AI and tech stocks. While that was a big story, I don’t think it was the most important thing. The big story in the investment world was the depreciation of the value of fiat money and how that impacted the price of gold. That’s how 2025 looked through my eyes, at least. I’m curious to hear if you see things the same way.

Ray Dalio

150,009 次观看 • 8 个月前

ISIS bride Jasmina, married first at the age of 13 and later she married 6 times in 6 years. She says "I was fine with it because i was following the word of the prophet". No different from what has been shown in Kerala story.

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ISIS bride Jasmina, married first at the age of 13 and later she married 6 times in 6 years. She says "I was fine with it because i was following the word of the prophet". No different from what has been shown in Kerala story.

BALA

444,941 次观看 • 3 年前

Graham Stephan reveals he was so obsessed with saving money that he wouldn’t eat at restaurants and would only drink the water and eat bread “I did this compound interest calculator, and when I was 18 years old. I put a dollar in the Money Chimp calculator, and then I saw that by the age of 65, that would be worth like 40 or 50 dollars.” “And I thought, oh my gosh, every dollar I spend is actually worth 50 bucks. And so every single thing, it was like a ten-dollar shirt times 50, a coffee times 50, shoes times 50.” “And when I saw that, I thought there’s no way I’m spending any money. And so I got my expenses as low as possible. I remember even I wouldn’t go out to restaurants. I would eat at home and then go to, like, show up and drink the water and eat the bread because I could save the $20 times 50. Everything was times 50.” “And I look back at that and I think I probably could have spent more money, but I have zero regrets.”

Graham Stephan reveals he was so obsessed with saving money that he wouldn’t eat at restaurants and would only drink the water and eat bread “I did this compound interest calculator, and when I was 18 years old. I put a dollar in the Money Chimp calculator, and then I saw that by the age of 65, that would be worth like 40 or 50 dollars.” “And I thought, oh my gosh, every dollar I spend is actually worth 50 bucks. And so every single thing, it was like a ten-dollar shirt times 50, a coffee times 50, shoes times 50.” “And when I saw that, I thought there’s no way I’m spending any money. And so I got my expenses as low as possible. I remember even I wouldn’t go out to restaurants. I would eat at home and then go to, like, show up and drink the water and eat the bread because I could save the $20 times 50. Everything was times 50.” “And I look back at that and I think I probably could have spent more money, but I have zero regrets.”

Mikli

33,946 次观看 • 1 个月前

This was Valentine’s favorite dive bar. You have seen it before when I posted it during our brief rotations and R&R in the capital. For 10 years we were close. I fired him at least two or three times which is normal considering my relationships with my cooks. We both sat at the same bar counter, drinking and listening to the latest gossip and news. Very rarely we were here together because for a year and a half he was the only cook capable of running the kitchen while I was away. Bartenders asked about him when I was at the counter and about me when HE was here… i hope, truly that he calls me or sends me a message saying all this news was a dumb joke and i could punch him in the gut for it… but nobody calls. Cooks don’t die in battle for the most part. We never make the ultimate sacrifice. We just work until we are no more and the bar staff keeps our memory alive along with other cooks who have been side by side every day, 12 to 18 hours a day… sometime 20 hours a day… The news came when i was in the middle of a lunch rush… i wish i never picked up the phone.

This was Valentine’s favorite dive bar. You have seen it before when I posted it during our brief rotations and R&R in the capital. For 10 years we were close. I fired him at least two or three times which is normal considering my relationships with my cooks. We both sat at the same bar counter, drinking and listening to the latest gossip and news. Very rarely we were here together because for a year and a half he was the only cook capable of running the kitchen while I was away. Bartenders asked about him when I was at the counter and about me when HE was here… i hope, truly that he calls me or sends me a message saying all this news was a dumb joke and i could punch him in the gut for it… but nobody calls. Cooks don’t die in battle for the most part. We never make the ultimate sacrifice. We just work until we are no more and the bar staff keeps our memory alive along with other cooks who have been side by side every day, 12 to 18 hours a day… sometime 20 hours a day… The news came when i was in the middle of a lunch rush… i wish i never picked up the phone.

Chef Zhenya

12,752 次观看 • 1 年前

9 years ago today I was diagnosed with colorectal cancer at age of 27. The odds said I wouldn't make it 5 years the approved treatments failed many including me at times didn't think id ever see 30 but here I am getting chemo round 155 today beat the odds by 3 years and counting

9 years ago today I was diagnosed with colorectal cancer at age of 27. The odds said I wouldn't make it 5 years the approved treatments failed many including me at times didn't think id ever see 30 but here I am getting chemo round 155 today beat the odds by 3 years and counting

jj singleton

144,786 次观看 • 2 年前

🚨 WOW! This woman fell for the propaganda that 2 people "died from Measles" in PA, and Sec. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gave the PERFECT response "The SO-CALLED measles deaths in Lancaster County, I talked with the county coroner or the county commissioner this morning and he says there were no measles deaths!" "There was a press conference by the governor. It was highly politicized and we saw a lot of the sort of old COVID PLAYBOOK rolled out where there was finger-pointing and politicizing and fear-mongering." "But the governor has not been able to point to ANY child who died from measles in Lancaster County." "We've asked repeatedly the county health department has asked repeatedly. So we're trying to get that information. We've done better controlling measles than any country in the world." "We have one of the lowest measles incidents in the world. Mexico has 11 times the number of measles cases that we have." "Canada has four times the number of measles cases. Britain has two times. And so, you know, we're doing it." "There's no reason that anybody in America should be dying of measles in this day and age. There's no reason. It's malpractice if that happens."

🚨 WOW! This woman fell for the propaganda that 2 people "died from Measles" in PA, and Sec. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gave the PERFECT response "The SO-CALLED measles deaths in Lancaster County, I talked with the county coroner or the county commissioner this morning and he says there were no measles deaths!" "There was a press conference by the governor. It was highly politicized and we saw a lot of the sort of old COVID PLAYBOOK rolled out where there was finger-pointing and politicizing and fear-mongering." "But the governor has not been able to point to ANY child who died from measles in Lancaster County." "We've asked repeatedly the county health department has asked repeatedly. So we're trying to get that information. We've done better controlling measles than any country in the world." "We have one of the lowest measles incidents in the world. Mexico has 11 times the number of measles cases that we have." "Canada has four times the number of measles cases. Britain has two times. And so, you know, we're doing it." "There's no reason that anybody in America should be dying of measles in this day and age. There's no reason. It's malpractice if that happens."

Eric Daugherty

281,691 次观看 • 17 天前

Marc Andreessen worked at IBM at the peak of their power. There were 12 layers of management between him as an intern and the CEO. He describes what that meant: if one layer lies to the layer above it, maybe that's okay. Two or three layers, the lies compound. Six layers, they really compound. Twelve layers... The CEO has absolutely no idea what's happening inside his own company. IBM even had a name for it. They called it the Big Gray Cloud, the cloud of men in gray suits that followed the CEO everywhere and made it physically impossible for him to ever talk to someone actually doing the work. "It was like a visit from the king. The king and the traveling court. A completely impervious bubble." That company controlled 80% of tech. Then it didn't. Elon looked at that model and built the opposite. The most dangerous thing in a large organization isn't incompetence. It's the distance between the truth and the top.

Marc Andreessen worked at IBM at the peak of their power. There were 12 layers of management between him as an intern and the CEO. He describes what that meant: if one layer lies to the layer above it, maybe that's okay. Two or three layers, the lies compound. Six layers, they really compound. Twelve layers... The CEO has absolutely no idea what's happening inside his own company. IBM even had a name for it. They called it the Big Gray Cloud, the cloud of men in gray suits that followed the CEO everywhere and made it physically impossible for him to ever talk to someone actually doing the work. "It was like a visit from the king. The king and the traveling court. A completely impervious bubble." That company controlled 80% of tech. Then it didn't. Elon looked at that model and built the opposite. The most dangerous thing in a large organization isn't incompetence. It's the distance between the truth and the top.

Founder Mode

220,135 次观看 • 5 个月前