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CNN: According to intelligence data, Iran is preparing to repel a possible ground operation on Kharg Island. Sources report that the island has a multi-level defense system, and in recent weeks, additional man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) have been deployed there. Also, around the island, including the coast, where...

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🇮🇷 Iran figured out you don’t need to physically close a strait to shut it down — you just need the insurance underwriters in Lloyd’s of London to believe you might and provide enough of a demonstration. Fear is the main weapon, more than the mines, fast boats or missile volleys. And Iran controls the geography that makes that fear rational. The two shipping lanes at Hormuz are each exactly 2 miles wide the width of Manhattan, flanked on the north by Iran’s rugged coastline and a string of fortified islands: Qeshm, Larak, Hormuz, and the disputed Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb. Seven of the strait’s eight major islands are Iranian. They're unsinkable missile platforms and bases parked directly over the only navigable corridor on earth that handles 20% of global oil. Flight time for a sea-skimming cruise missile from Qeshm to a loaded supertanker: under two minutes. Which is why the Kharg Island plan is a suicidal fantasy. Taking Kharg even if you could do it, does nothing to the strait. Iran doesn’t need Kharg to control Hormuz. It needs Qeshm, Larak, Abu Musa, the coastal batteries, the tunnel networks, the mine stockpiles, and 1,000km of rugged northern shoreline that no amphibious force has a chance of taking. You’d take the island under heavy cost, hold it under constant bombardment, watch the strait stay closed, and find yourself needing to take the next island. Then a coastal perimeter and good luck trying. That’s not a limited Kharg operation. That’s the beginning of a land war and Iran has been waiting 45 years for someone to be stupid enough to start it.

THE ISLANDER

23,496 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten