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Coinbase CEO confirmed: insider trading is 100% necessary for prediction markets Brian Armstrong: "If you want truth about the world, insiders are the only path" Here's the truth we must accept: - Stock markets: insider kills "fair play" - Prediction markets: insider creates "truth signal" - They compete with...

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Lirratø

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881,873 views • 6 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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"Prediction markets are truth machines." Vlad talked about how the trading and speculating in prediction markets cuts through a ton of noise and gets surprisingly close to truth. And then I made some random comment about cows which looking back was unnecessary.
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"Prediction markets are truth machines." Vlad talked about how the trading and speculating in prediction markets cuts through a ton of noise and gets surprisingly close to truth. And then I made some random comment about cows which looking back was unnecessary.

Jack Altman

91,147 views • 7 months ago

NEW: As Kalshi and Polymarket pummel Americans with ads ahead of the Big Game, you need to know that insider trading is a big problem for these prediction markets. You might not be trading against the house, but you could be trading against someone who knows the right answer, from the inside, with little restrictions. Know the truth.
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NEW: As Kalshi and Polymarket pummel Americans with ads ahead of the Big Game, you need to know that insider trading is a big problem for these prediction markets. You might not be trading against the house, but you could be trading against someone who knows the right answer, from the inside, with little restrictions. Know the truth.

More Perfect Union

284,177 views • 5 months ago

In the end, only truth survives. Prediction markets for the post-human internet. Waitlist is now open. Link in bio.
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In the end, only truth survives. Prediction markets for the post-human internet. Waitlist is now open. Link in bio.

GODMACHINE

18,149 views • 4 months ago

REPORTER: “Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets for the Iran war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” Trump isn’t concerned with insider trading bc his entire family is fleecing the American people.
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REPORTER: “Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets for the Iran war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” Trump isn’t concerned with insider trading bc his entire family is fleecing the American people.

Stew Peters

174,495 views • 2 months ago

"fair" prediction markets. insider trading made it impossible for you to win. 0.1% of traders take 67% of the profits. are you winning son?
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"fair" prediction markets. insider trading made it impossible for you to win. 0.1% of traders take 67% of the profits. are you winning son?

TAUNT.

114,794 views • 1 month ago

“Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets re: the war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” 🤷🏼 And there you have it, folks!
0:38

“Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets re: the war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” 🤷🏼 And there you have it, folks!

The Tennessee Holler

1,708,786 views • 2 months ago

UNREAL: REPORTER: "Are you concerned about insider trading on prediction markets re: the war?" TRUMP: "The world is a casino. It is what it is." This is insane. We've been tracking it for weeks. Trump admin insiders are front-running every policy decision. They're extracting billions out of the markets. The President doesn't seem to care.
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UNREAL: REPORTER: "Are you concerned about insider trading on prediction markets re: the war?" TRUMP: "The world is a casino. It is what it is." This is insane. We've been tracking it for weeks. Trump admin insiders are front-running every policy decision. They're extracting billions out of the markets. The President doesn't seem to care.

Crypto Rover

642,632 views • 2 months ago

The future of Prediction Markets is private and it's here. Higher payouts for insiders, no leaks and truth valued fairly. Darkbet Mode.
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The future of Prediction Markets is private and it's here. Higher payouts for insiders, no leaks and truth valued fairly. Darkbet Mode.

Darkbet

19,880 views • 8 months ago

Signal > noise. Elections. Economic policy. Global trade routes. Prediction markets provide insights into the real world - in real time. (And yes, you can bet on the Winter Games too)
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Signal > noise. Elections. Economic policy. Global trade routes. Prediction markets provide insights into the real world - in real time. (And yes, you can bet on the Winter Games too)

Coinbase 🛡️

45,794 views • 4 months ago

JUST IN: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong comments on prediction markets and the company’s partnership with Kalshi: “We love Kalshi.”
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JUST IN: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong comments on prediction markets and the company’s partnership with Kalshi: “We love Kalshi.”

Whale Insider

1,817,382 views • 6 months ago

Markets are manipulated. News is manipulated. History is manipulated. But you can't hide the truth forever. The world is about to wake up to everything....
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Markets are manipulated. News is manipulated. History is manipulated. But you can't hide the truth forever. The world is about to wake up to everything....

Bark

108,738 views • 5 months ago

What if you could see what the market believes before you trade? Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price real world outcomes, in real time. We bring that signal into one place. Introducing AceTrader Prediction Markets, trade ahead of the move.
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What if you could see what the market believes before you trade? Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price real world outcomes, in real time. We bring that signal into one place. Introducing AceTrader Prediction Markets, trade ahead of the move.

AceTrader

25,483 views • 2 months ago

The Truth About Creator Capital Markets.
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The Truth About Creator Capital Markets.

JAKE

21,825 views • 10 months ago

Testing prediction markets and stock trading on the Coinbase app, which are rolling out in the U.S now
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Testing prediction markets and stock trading on the Coinbase app, which are rolling out in the U.S now

Brian Armstrong

192,663 views • 6 months ago

For centuries, prediction markets have been used to manage risk. Now, these tools are finally reaching everyday Americans. We believe you deserve the same insight into the future. We’re promoting regulated, fair and open access to these tools, ensuring the future belongs to everyday people, not the special interests who profit from confusion. The CFTC regulates these markets, just like the SEC oversees the NYSE. We are working to create a level playing field for users. It’s time to protect truth over noise. Let’s protect safe, fair markets.
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For centuries, prediction markets have been used to manage risk. Now, these tools are finally reaching everyday Americans. We believe you deserve the same insight into the future. We’re promoting regulated, fair and open access to these tools, ensuring the future belongs to everyday people, not the special interests who profit from confusion. The CFTC regulates these markets, just like the SEC oversees the NYSE. We are working to create a level playing field for users. It’s time to protect truth over noise. Let’s protect safe, fair markets.

Coalition for Prediction Markets

39,686 views • 5 months ago

Just before the US strike on Iran, a surge of suspiciously timed bets on prediction markets triggered fresh insider trading alarms. Funds that let investors mirror the stock trades of Congress are under scrutiny. Tidal Financial Group’s Dan Weiskopf said ‘the grift continues’
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Just before the US strike on Iran, a surge of suspiciously timed bets on prediction markets triggered fresh insider trading alarms. Funds that let investors mirror the stock trades of Congress are under scrutiny. Tidal Financial Group’s Dan Weiskopf said ‘the grift continues’

Reuters

138,029 views • 4 months ago

🚨President Trump on Truth Social: “The Markets are going to BOOM!”
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🚨President Trump on Truth Social: “The Markets are going to BOOM!”

Benny Johnson

156,676 views • 1 year ago

“In Predictive Allocation you are allocating capital to where you think markets need to exist next. Prediction markets are for bets on what you think is true, they create asymmetric upside but not the actual outcomes. What if you could do that, while bootstrapping new markets?”
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“In Predictive Allocation you are allocating capital to where you think markets need to exist next. Prediction markets are for bets on what you think is true, they create asymmetric upside but not the actual outcomes. What if you could do that, while bootstrapping new markets?”

Aerodrome

25,823 views • 19 days ago

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!
0:24

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!

Benjamin Freeman

80,021 views • 6 months ago