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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Conventional air power is proving largely ineffective against modern asymmetric warfare tactics deployed on a nation-state scale. By utilizing decentralized command structures and advanced drone diffusion, Iran has successfully insulated its infrastructure from Western military disruption. Professor Robert Pape notes that because Tehran operates as an advanced space... show more

Mario Nawfal

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE PANDORA’S BOX: A GRIM MILITARY PREDICTION The "Smart Bomb Trap" is a reality that Robert Pape has modeled for 20 years, and it's why he launched his Substack to warn the public. A ground invasion would leave U.S. troops as sitting ducks for short-range artillery and advanced drone warfare. We have crossed a Rubicon into a "wicked problem," and there is no simple victory waiting on the other side. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington is stumbling headfirst into an orchestrated geopolitical trap in the Middle East. Geopolitical analyst Robert Pape warns that while the White House uses social media to blast "happy talk" about an imminent peace deal, Tehran is systematically securing actual escalation dominance on the ground. Following a string of tight regional operations, Professor Pape notes that global observers are starting to find Iran's strategic maneuvers far more credible than any empty rhetoric coming from the Trump administration. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington is stumbling headfirst into an orchestrated geopolitical trap in the Middle East. Geopolitical analyst Robert Pape warns that while the White House uses social media to blast "happy talk" about an imminent peace deal, Tehran is systematically securing actual escalation dominance on the ground. Following a string of tight regional operations, Professor Pape notes that global observers are starting to find Iran's strategic maneuvers far more credible than any empty rhetoric coming from the Trump administration. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S.-Iran negotiations represent a massive strategic shift. Professor Robert Pape argued that despite Western media spin, Iran is actually in the driver's seat and setting the terms while the Trump administration scrambles to adjust. He suggested the escalation trap the world is facing signals a permanent new era of global energy and economic instability, rather than a temporary hurdle. "We are in an era of instability, not a moment of instability." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S.-Iran negotiations represent a massive strategic shift. Professor Robert Pape argued that despite Western media spin, Iran is actually in the driver's seat and setting the terms while the Trump administration scrambles to adjust. He suggested the escalation trap the world is facing signals a permanent new era of global energy and economic instability, rather than a temporary hurdle. "We are in an era of instability, not a moment of instability." Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may still be far away from showing real signs he is willing to make the concessions needed to end the war. While headlines blast that the U.S. naval blockade on Iran is lifting, Professor Robert Pape warns that Trump’s hidden conditions are essentially demanding complete Iranian capitulation. Professor Pape argued that by demanding zero shipping tolls and the right to place U.S. personnel on the ground to destroy nuclear material, Washington is publicly proposing terms Tehran has absolutely no intention of swallowing. "This is like saying I want to buy your house and I also want you to put on a new roof and a brand new garage." Robert A. Pape

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🚨 Today the IRGC’s Greater Tehran Command finished a 5-day military drill called “Labbayk ya Khamenei” around Tehran. The exercise focused on asymmetric ground warfare, anti-helicopter tactics, FPV drone attacks, rapid-response units, and light infantry operating from pickup trucks and SUVs. While state media framed it as preparation against external “enemy threats,” these types of drills also carry a major internal-security component tied to future unrest, protests, urban suppression, and rapid deployment inside Iran itself. Critics say the forces and equipment shown in the footage would be highly vulnerable against modern air power and advanced fighter jets.

🚨 Today the IRGC’s Greater Tehran Command finished a 5-day military drill called “Labbayk ya Khamenei” around Tehran. The exercise focused on asymmetric ground warfare, anti-helicopter tactics, FPV drone attacks, rapid-response units, and light infantry operating from pickup trucks and SUVs. While state media framed it as preparation against external “enemy threats,” these types of drills also carry a major internal-security component tied to future unrest, protests, urban suppression, and rapid deployment inside Iran itself. Critics say the forces and equipment shown in the footage would be highly vulnerable against modern air power and advanced fighter jets.

The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE OVERCONFIDENCE BUBBLE: A RADICAL NEW LEADERSHIP Policymakers often get stuck in a bubble of overconfidence, but Robert Pape warns that decapitation strikes rarely go as planned. The new Supreme Leader is proving to be even more radical, demanding full U.S. withdrawal and reparations for the damage caused. Big countries lose small wars when they treat a medium-sized, prepared power like Iran as if it were a minor obstacle. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE OVERCONFIDENCE BUBBLE: A RADICAL NEW LEADERSHIP Policymakers often get stuck in a bubble of overconfidence, but Robert Pape warns that decapitation strikes rarely go as planned. The new Supreme Leader is proving to be even more radical, demanding full U.S. withdrawal and reparations for the damage caused. Big countries lose small wars when they treat a medium-sized, prepared power like Iran as if it were a minor obstacle. Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 You can't shoot down a cheap drone with an expensive missile forever. Political Scientist Robert Pape says interceptor stocks are thinning out, drained by having to answer both ballistic missiles and low-cost drones with the same high-end munitions. The workaround is leaning harder on long-range bombers and other assets. Pape is careful about what that means: it constrains the campaign, it doesn't decide it. So does this shape the tempo from here, or just the target list? Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Are we on the verge of a massive regional war in the Middle East, or are we trapped in a slow-burning fuse? Professor Robert Pape argues that while immediate risks remain moderate over the summer, the real danger spikes by January as prolonged instability weakens Gulf governments. Much like the catastrophic trajectory of the Iran-Iraq War, history shows that states rarely find an easy exit from the compounding escalation traps that the world is seeing. "18 months from now it's 90% likely that Iran will test nuclear weapons." Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Are we on the verge of a massive regional war in the Middle East, or are we trapped in a slow-burning fuse? Professor Robert Pape argues that while immediate risks remain moderate over the summer, the real danger spikes by January as prolonged instability weakens Gulf governments. Much like the catastrophic trajectory of the Iran-Iraq War, history shows that states rarely find an easy exit from the compounding escalation traps that the world is seeing. "18 months from now it's 90% likely that Iran will test nuclear weapons." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is making bold demands for the right to enrich uranium, promising to keep the Strait of Hormuz under lock until Trump flips his stance. Robert Pape says this is a matter of cold power calculus and has little to do with anything ideological that is often ascribed to the regime's motivations. Wait Trump out. Let the economic pressure build on Washington. Deal with whoever comes after Trump. "You wreck your enemy, you wreck them forever. Then you make a deal with somebody." Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is making bold demands for the right to enrich uranium, promising to keep the Strait of Hormuz under lock until Trump flips his stance. Robert Pape says this is a matter of cold power calculus and has little to do with anything ideological that is often ascribed to the regime's motivations. Wait Trump out. Let the economic pressure build on Washington. Deal with whoever comes after Trump. "You wreck your enemy, you wreck them forever. Then you make a deal with somebody." Robert A. Pape

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🇮🇷💥🇺🇸 Iran Ready for U.S. Ground Invasion: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran is prepared for any potential "ground confrontation," including a U.S. ground invasion, describing it as something Iran is "waiting for" and would turn into "a big disaster" for attackers. The thing to remember is that Iran's military doctrine emphasizes asymmetric warfare and terrain advantages in a vast, mountainous country rather than matching U.S. conventional ground power. I believe it's only a matter of time before the United States deploys ground troops into Iran. However, these would likely be limited, targeted military operations against specific objectives rather than a full-scale invasion. The countdown has begun.....

🇮🇷💥🇺🇸 Iran Ready for U.S. Ground Invasion: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran is prepared for any potential "ground confrontation," including a U.S. ground invasion, describing it as something Iran is "waiting for" and would turn into "a big disaster" for attackers. The thing to remember is that Iran's military doctrine emphasizes asymmetric warfare and terrain advantages in a vast, mountainous country rather than matching U.S. conventional ground power. I believe it's only a matter of time before the United States deploys ground troops into Iran. However, these would likely be limited, targeted military operations against specific objectives rather than a full-scale invasion. The countdown has begun.....

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🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The rest of the world has already picked a side, and it isn't ours. Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski says Iran isn't budging because it doesn't have to. "There are a lot more people on Iran's side. A lot more countries, a lot more economic power, energy power, diplomatic power, and even military power on Iran's side beyond Iran than there is on the US side." Trump wants a win. Iran is offering nothing that looks like one. Karen Kwiatkowski

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The rest of the world has already picked a side, and it isn't ours. Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski says Iran isn't budging because it doesn't have to. "There are a lot more people on Iran's side. A lot more countries, a lot more economic power, energy power, diplomatic power, and even military power on Iran's side beyond Iran than there is on the US side." Trump wants a win. Iran is offering nothing that looks like one. Karen Kwiatkowski

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Iran to become the fourth center of world power Robert Pape is an American political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago. His military planning and war-gaming experience includes teaching air-power strategy at the U.S. Air Force’s School of Advanced Airpower Studies (1991–1994). He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military and air-war strategy. For over 20 years, he has run Iran-war simulations in his strategy courses, modeling bombing campaigns, escalation dynamics, and political outcomes to help the military and government understand how force translates into political results. On the Mario Nawfal show, Robert Pape argued that Iran is on a rapid path to become the fourth center of world power (alongside the U.S., China, and Russia) within roughly a year to 18 months if the current conflict dynamics continue. He explained that the ongoing war has trapped the U.S. in an “escalation trap” across three stages: failed regime-change bombing that hardened the Iranian regime, horizontal escalation (drones hitting regional targets and selective control of the Strait of Hormuz), and potential ground operations. Iran has already gained practical control of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—allowing it to disrupt supplies, impose tolls, or expand influence to the Red Sea choke point. This would make Iran an oil hegemon richer than the U.S. (which produces ~16% of world oil). Combined with near-certain operational nuclear weapons (he estimated >90% chance of a dozen working bombs within a year if the war stops), Iran would acquire nuclear deterrence like North Korea while wielding unmatched energy leverage. Pape stressed he is not saying Iran is already the fourth power today, but that the war itself has created a “propitious” future for Tehran: it strengthens the regime, weakens adversaries, and positions Iran as a nuclear-armed regional hegemon capable of toppling Gulf states and reshaping global energy politics. Prolonged conflict or U.S. withdrawal would hand Iran this status, turning a contained adversary into a new pole of world power. He based this on 21 years of Iran-war modeling.

Iran to become the fourth center of world power Robert Pape is an American political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago. His military planning and war-gaming experience includes teaching air-power strategy at the U.S. Air Force’s School of Advanced Airpower Studies (1991–1994). He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military and air-war strategy. For over 20 years, he has run Iran-war simulations in his strategy courses, modeling bombing campaigns, escalation dynamics, and political outcomes to help the military and government understand how force translates into political results. On the Mario Nawfal show, Robert Pape argued that Iran is on a rapid path to become the fourth center of world power (alongside the U.S., China, and Russia) within roughly a year to 18 months if the current conflict dynamics continue. He explained that the ongoing war has trapped the U.S. in an “escalation trap” across three stages: failed regime-change bombing that hardened the Iranian regime, horizontal escalation (drones hitting regional targets and selective control of the Strait of Hormuz), and potential ground operations. Iran has already gained practical control of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—allowing it to disrupt supplies, impose tolls, or expand influence to the Red Sea choke point. This would make Iran an oil hegemon richer than the U.S. (which produces ~16% of world oil). Combined with near-certain operational nuclear weapons (he estimated >90% chance of a dozen working bombs within a year if the war stops), Iran would acquire nuclear deterrence like North Korea while wielding unmatched energy leverage. Pape stressed he is not saying Iran is already the fourth power today, but that the war itself has created a “propitious” future for Tehran: it strengthens the regime, weakens adversaries, and positions Iran as a nuclear-armed regional hegemon capable of toppling Gulf states and reshaping global energy politics. Prolonged conflict or U.S. withdrawal would hand Iran this status, turning a contained adversary into a new pole of world power. He based this on 21 years of Iran-war modeling.

Ramin-negahdari

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Pape says the U.S. strategy was always to destroy Iran's missile launchers and drone factories. 40 days of bombing later... didn't work. Underground sites get hit, get rebuilt. Drones aren't hard to build when the parts arrive by rail from China. Pape has mapped Iran's drone launch zone against Shahed-136 range. The box from which Iran can hit ships in Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman is bigger than California. You can't drone-hunt an area that size. His bottom line: reopening Hormuz isn't happening before the midterms. Maybe not before January. And the Red Sea problem just doubled it. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Pape says the U.S. strategy was always to destroy Iran's missile launchers and drone factories. 40 days of bombing later... didn't work. Underground sites get hit, get rebuilt. Drones aren't hard to build when the parts arrive by rail from China. Pape has mapped Iran's drone launch zone against Shahed-136 range. The box from which Iran can hit ships in Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman is bigger than California. You can't drone-hunt an area that size. His bottom line: reopening Hormuz isn't happening before the midterms. Maybe not before January. And the Red Sea problem just doubled it. Robert A. Pape

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⭕️ University of Chicago Political Scientist Robert Pape: “Iran Is Beating America… Trump Is A Wounded Animal” Professor Robert Pape, one of the country’s leading scholars on military escalation, appeared on Breaking Points to assess the state of the war. Here’s what he said: 🔹 On who’s in control: “America’s not winning. Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play. They are more in control as each day passes. And since the first hour of the bombing, America has been less in control and has less cards to play.” 🔹 On why talks keep failing: Pape argues the ceasefire breakdown is not a miscommunication problem — it’s a zero-sum problem. Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot both have enriched uranium and not have it. “One side has to give up essentially. And what you’re seeing is both sides rather than give up prefer to escalate.” 🔹 On what Iran wants: Pape believes Iran has three goals — control of the Strait, nuclear weapons within roughly a year or two, and torpedoing Trump’s presidency. He claims Iran’s strategy is to string this out at least until November — keeping the economic pressure on and the Strait closed long enough to make Trump’s presidency unrecoverable. 🔹 On Iran denying Trump a way out: Pape argues Trump is desperately seeking a symbolic concession from Iran — any gesture that lets him declare victory and exit. Iran isn’t giving it to him. Instead, every time Trump signals a win, Iran responds with a fresh move like seizing ships, parading missiles. Pape argues this is deliberate: Iran knows that every U.S. victory claim it undercuts pushes Trump further into a trap, and over time gives Tehran greater leverage in negotiations and in the region. 🔹 On what Iran learned: “They learned something in the last eight weeks they did not know before — which is they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America. And they’re not just beating Donald Trump. Nobody in America is coming up with a brilliant plan.” 🔹 On the ship seizures today: Professor Pape predicted “demonstration attacks” on his Substack hours before Iran seized the vessels Wednesday morning. “What they’re doing is moving up a standard rung of escalation. This is not going to be over anytime soon.“ Ryan Grim | Emily Jashinsky | Robert A. Pape

⭕️ University of Chicago Political Scientist Robert Pape: “Iran Is Beating America… Trump Is A Wounded Animal” Professor Robert Pape, one of the country’s leading scholars on military escalation, appeared on Breaking Points to assess the state of the war. Here’s what he said: 🔹 On who’s in control: “America’s not winning. Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play. They are more in control as each day passes. And since the first hour of the bombing, America has been less in control and has less cards to play.” 🔹 On why talks keep failing: Pape argues the ceasefire breakdown is not a miscommunication problem — it’s a zero-sum problem. Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot both have enriched uranium and not have it. “One side has to give up essentially. And what you’re seeing is both sides rather than give up prefer to escalate.” 🔹 On what Iran wants: Pape believes Iran has three goals — control of the Strait, nuclear weapons within roughly a year or two, and torpedoing Trump’s presidency. He claims Iran’s strategy is to string this out at least until November — keeping the economic pressure on and the Strait closed long enough to make Trump’s presidency unrecoverable. 🔹 On Iran denying Trump a way out: Pape argues Trump is desperately seeking a symbolic concession from Iran — any gesture that lets him declare victory and exit. Iran isn’t giving it to him. Instead, every time Trump signals a win, Iran responds with a fresh move like seizing ships, parading missiles. Pape argues this is deliberate: Iran knows that every U.S. victory claim it undercuts pushes Trump further into a trap, and over time gives Tehran greater leverage in negotiations and in the region. 🔹 On what Iran learned: “They learned something in the last eight weeks they did not know before — which is they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America. And they’re not just beating Donald Trump. Nobody in America is coming up with a brilliant plan.” 🔹 On the ship seizures today: Professor Pape predicted “demonstration attacks” on his Substack hours before Iran seized the vessels Wednesday morning. “What they’re doing is moving up a standard rung of escalation. This is not going to be over anytime soon.“ Ryan Grim | Emily Jashinsky | Robert A. Pape

Drop Site

42,990 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: The war isn't over because Iran isn't finished winning. Most people see the ceasefires, the meetings in Doha, the headlines about diplomacy, and assume everyone is trying to find a way out. Prof. Pape thinks that's fundamentally misunderstanding what Iran is doing. His argument is brutally simple: The MOU isn't just a ceasefire agreement, it's a roadmap for Iran to become the dominant regional power. That's why Tehran is fighting so hard over the Strait of Hormuz, and why Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen suddenly matter. They're all part of the same strategic picture. Prof. Pape says Iran is building what every rising power eventually tries to build: a sphere of influence. Tehran's would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and back to the Gulf, giving it leverage not just over Hormuz but over the alternative routes that could one day bypass it. That's the part almost everyone is missing. America keeps treating these flashpoints as isolated problems, Prof. Pape says Tehran sees them as pieces of the same board. Iran believes it's still gaining power, and countries that think they're winning don't suddenly stop playing. By the end of the interview, I was thinking about two completely different visions of the Middle East colliding. One where America still sets the rules, and another where Iran believes it finally has the chance to rewrite them. Robert A. Pape

Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: The war isn't over because Iran isn't finished winning. Most people see the ceasefires, the meetings in Doha, the headlines about diplomacy, and assume everyone is trying to find a way out. Prof. Pape thinks that's fundamentally misunderstanding what Iran is doing. His argument is brutally simple: The MOU isn't just a ceasefire agreement, it's a roadmap for Iran to become the dominant regional power. That's why Tehran is fighting so hard over the Strait of Hormuz, and why Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen suddenly matter. They're all part of the same strategic picture. Prof. Pape says Iran is building what every rising power eventually tries to build: a sphere of influence. Tehran's would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and back to the Gulf, giving it leverage not just over Hormuz but over the alternative routes that could one day bypass it. That's the part almost everyone is missing. America keeps treating these flashpoints as isolated problems, Prof. Pape says Tehran sees them as pieces of the same board. Iran believes it's still gaining power, and countries that think they're winning don't suddenly stop playing. By the end of the interview, I was thinking about two completely different visions of the Middle East colliding. One where America still sets the rules, and another where Iran believes it finally has the chance to rewrite them. Robert A. Pape

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Defense Intelligence

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