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Core eSports (CORE E-SPORTS) enter CoD:M and pick up the Xceed (CORE【CoDMobile部門】🇯🇵) roster! - Liquid - Ryu - Kakkii - UroN - Misty - Palsy (coach) - Tk (analyst)

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COD Mobile Esports News

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29,698 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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9 条评论

Aires 的头像
Aires1 年前

@Core_official__ @Xceed_codm A very strong team, a worthy opponent

ASTROMEDA - Wishlist on Steam! 的头像
ASTROMEDA - Wishlist on Steam!2 年前

A small teaser of Astromeda! It's a game inspired by Pokemon, Undertale, and OneShot. Wishlist on Steam! #TrailerTuesday #indiegame #IndieGameDev #GamingNews #Steam

Logic 的头像
Logic1 年前

@Core_official__ @Xceed_codm W pickup. Hope we can see them in WC this year.

Roger 的头像
Roger1 年前

@Core_official__ @Xceed_codm A huge W 🔥

Ryú 的头像
Ryú1 年前

@Core_official__ @Xceed_codm W,hope they get to play next CDM

zz1r 的头像
zz1r1 年前

@Core_official__ @Xceed_codm Hope to see them in CDM and world 🔥💪

Anti-Cap 🐐 的头像
Anti-Cap 🐐1 年前

@Core_official__ @Xceed_codm W

Akyy_55 的头像
Akyy_551 年前

@Core_official__ @Xceed_codm 🤤

Sinbaad 的头像
Sinbaad1 年前

@Core_official__ @Xceed_codm Kings of twitter clips 🫡

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Steph Curry on Steve Kerr returning as the Warriors’ head coach: “I’m happy, man. It’s just he had to make the right decision for himself. You want to make sure everybody’s invested mentally, spiritually, physically, to what the grind is. And now we’re just collaborating on new ideas to try to get us back to where we belong and think about it differently, maintain our culture and our core principles that got us to the level that we were. But it’s a different team, different era of basketball. You got to be able to adjust and adapt, and I think Steve’s up for the task.” (via NBC Sports Bay Area & CA with Monte Poole)
0:30

Steph Curry on Steve Kerr returning as the Warriors’ head coach: “I’m happy, man. It’s just he had to make the right decision for himself. You want to make sure everybody’s invested mentally, spiritually, physically, to what the grind is. And now we’re just collaborating on new ideas to try to get us back to where we belong and think about it differently, maintain our culture and our core principles that got us to the level that we were. But it’s a different team, different era of basketball. You got to be able to adjust and adapt, and I think Steve’s up for the task.” (via NBC Sports Bay Area & CA with Monte Poole)

aly ✶

17,558 次观看 • 1 个月前

OFFICIAL: EASTER EGG GUIDE FOR TOTENREICH: Wonder Weapon: 1. Head to The Drydocks and lower The Crane, this will allow you to wall jump and interact with the tip of the ship to pick up the Chain Link 2. Next, Head to Storm Bridge and pick up Chili Chunks behind the truck next to Deadshot 3. Place Chili Chunks on the table in the middle of the Skalen Market 4. Next, Head to Burial Grounds left-side door and interact with the keyhole. 5. Interact with the door again and hold it to open the door and to unlock the underground area. 6. This will spawn a Zursa Bear during a special round (starting the second special round) you need to kill him and he will drop The Lantern 7. Place The Lantern in the center of the Underground Room in Burial Grounds. 8. Constellations will appear around the wall. Interact with them as they’re shown on the table in this order: left, right, back, front. 9. Once completed, Astrid will appear and talk, she will then travel to different areas of the map. She will occasionally stop and you will need to kill frost zombies next to her. 10. Once all the Soulboxes are completed an Obstacle Course will form on the outside of The Lighthouse, climb to the top by Jumping / Wall Jumping up 11. Once you reach the top, Listen to the Astrid talk and pick up The Jotunn Star Wundersignal: 1. After completing Jotun Star Quest Head to The Lighthouse and inside on a shelf there will be a Crowbar 2. There are Multiple Wooden Boxes around the map with red IDs on the bottom right corner of the front of the box in red (for example III-6) use The Crowbar on the Wooden Box that has the Roboterteile ID (the IDs are on the shipping manifest in the War Factory Admin Room), this will give Flak Gun Round War Factory Core Foundry Fjord Road Dry Dock 3. Head to Turret Gun beside The Lighthouse and place Flak Gun Round then melee with Jotunn Star 4. Next, Head to The Robot Head in spawn and interact with it to search broken piece to get The Transmitter 5. Go to Tyr’s Head and place it inside the Wall Machine thingy at the top of the Ladder 6. Next, whilst inside of Tyr’s Head underneath the balcony there are 3 white lights, 2 of these lights will blink, count how many times it blinks -Both lights will remain on, There is the sound of a light turning on to indicate the start of a new light flashing cycle where both lights will flash at the same time to a certain count (for example left 2, right 5). Both lights will be on and then it will flash another set (for example left 6, right 4). (Unsure if these 2 combos have to be put into console in order but correct entry will give two different voicelines.) After entering one correctly you will be kicked out to hear voiceline and can re-enter console to input the 2nd shortly afterwards. 7. Now head to Core Foundry, and use a molotov to burn the ascender to access the consoles. 8. Ascend and interact with the consoles, The next part is timed and has a cooldown if you fail - you need to Calibrate the Amplitude and Frequency using the flashing light code. 9. Once this has been done head to the room Next to the Radio Tower and pick up The Wunderbarrage Controller Atomkraft Core 1. Find three uraniums: Uranium #1 Find the Fishing Rod (Olaf’s Personal Item) locations: - Dry Dock - Storm Bridge - Fishery Island - Beacon island Look for a Glowing Green Fish jumping around the water at each Fishing Location and use the Fishing Rod at that location once you see it Fishing Locations: Eidskallen Landing x2 Beacon Island x2 Eidskallen Square x2 Dry Dock (found one so far) Fishery Island x2 Tyr’s Foot (found one so far) Once the fish is caught it will spawn an Irradiated Ravager (HVT) that will disappear and respawn somewhere else, chase it down and kill it (check your map to see its location, it shows up as an HVT). It will drop a Uranium. Uranium #2 Next, Craft an ARC-XD (there is one for free in Eidskallen Square on top of a box near the flame trap, you can get it by fishing as well) and melee the vent at Core Foundry to the left of the zipline to open the Secret ARC-XD Course. Blow up the boat full of barrels. Once the course is completed the 935 Genetic Lab room will be open and another Uranium x2 will be inside a Prison Cell There are several Jars with Heads inside in this room, all labelled A,B,C,D,E Look down the Hallway inside the Lab and note which numbered rooms have Nuclear Symbols 1 = A, 2 = B, 3 = C, 4 = D and 5 = E Take one Jar at a time that corresponds with the Numbers next to Nuclear Symbols and place them on the machine to the right of the cell door, once the correct jars are placed the Jar on the left side of the machine will glow purple and you can pick up acid There is a Big Chunk of Meat on a desk next to multiple drawings in the same Room, interact with it, then Pick up The Necrospike Once you have The Necrospike, use it on the Prison Cell Door, this will trigger a lockpick mini game. Spin the lockpick until the lock turns white 3x to unlock the cell, then pick up the second Uranium. Uranium #3 Next you need to craft or obtain the Glocke Drop, once you have one call it in, then shoot 20 mid-air zombies it throws up. This will drop the third and final Uranium. 2. At the Dry Dock, you need to call a WunderBarrage (unlocked by completing Wundersignal steps) in on the “02 Building” at Dry Dock (where there’s debris on the stairs), this will open the stairs to the Machine Workshop. 3. Inside The Workshop there is a Claw Machine which you can place all of The Uranium inside of and play a mini-game. -Have a big group of 7 cores and a small group of 2 cores. 4. Once you complete the Mini-game you will be able to pick up The Atomkraft Core (Note: you drop if you zipline, and cant sprint with it) 5. Head to Quick Revive and place The Atomkraft Core on generator next to quick revive. Go into the shed behind quick revive and turn on the generator. You must now defend the The Atomkraft Core until it’s charged. In interrupted you must turn on the generator again to continue. 6. Take the The Atomkraft Core to the barrel on the Storm Bridge and a Mini-Cutscene will play between the Giant and The Robot. Vegvisir 1. After the cutscene finishes, The Dravakar Shard will spawn at Tyr’s Foot, pick it up 2. Pick it up and place the Shard inside the Bloodheim Hall on the bonfire 3. Use WW range attack to light the fire 4. Use Disciple Injection (there should be a free one around the map) and throw zombies into the bonfire (I only had to throw four) 5. A lockdown will start. Kill the boss zombie and pick up the Sunstone from the bonfire 6. Put the Sunstone in the church and do a range WW attack on it. 7. Around the map, there will now be floating rocks and runes. Above the church there will now be a compass with runes and arrows. -Shoot the floating rune rocks with the ranged WW in the order of the arrow lines. If an arrow has 1 line, then that's the first one. If an arrow has 2 lines, that's the second one, etc. 8. Go into Tyr's Head and interact with the console to start the boss fight. Credit to Callum and the ZoneX discord
0:29

OFFICIAL: EASTER EGG GUIDE FOR TOTENREICH: Wonder Weapon: 1. Head to The Drydocks and lower The Crane, this will allow you to wall jump and interact with the tip of the ship to pick up the Chain Link 2. Next, Head to Storm Bridge and pick up Chili Chunks behind the truck next to Deadshot 3. Place Chili Chunks on the table in the middle of the Skalen Market 4. Next, Head to Burial Grounds left-side door and interact with the keyhole. 5. Interact with the door again and hold it to open the door and to unlock the underground area. 6. This will spawn a Zursa Bear during a special round (starting the second special round) you need to kill him and he will drop The Lantern 7. Place The Lantern in the center of the Underground Room in Burial Grounds. 8. Constellations will appear around the wall. Interact with them as they’re shown on the table in this order: left, right, back, front. 9. Once completed, Astrid will appear and talk, she will then travel to different areas of the map. She will occasionally stop and you will need to kill frost zombies next to her. 10. Once all the Soulboxes are completed an Obstacle Course will form on the outside of The Lighthouse, climb to the top by Jumping / Wall Jumping up 11. Once you reach the top, Listen to the Astrid talk and pick up The Jotunn Star Wundersignal: 1. After completing Jotun Star Quest Head to The Lighthouse and inside on a shelf there will be a Crowbar 2. There are Multiple Wooden Boxes around the map with red IDs on the bottom right corner of the front of the box in red (for example III-6) use The Crowbar on the Wooden Box that has the Roboterteile ID (the IDs are on the shipping manifest in the War Factory Admin Room), this will give Flak Gun Round War Factory Core Foundry Fjord Road Dry Dock 3. Head to Turret Gun beside The Lighthouse and place Flak Gun Round then melee with Jotunn Star 4. Next, Head to The Robot Head in spawn and interact with it to search broken piece to get The Transmitter 5. Go to Tyr’s Head and place it inside the Wall Machine thingy at the top of the Ladder 6. Next, whilst inside of Tyr’s Head underneath the balcony there are 3 white lights, 2 of these lights will blink, count how many times it blinks -Both lights will remain on, There is the sound of a light turning on to indicate the start of a new light flashing cycle where both lights will flash at the same time to a certain count (for example left 2, right 5). Both lights will be on and then it will flash another set (for example left 6, right 4). (Unsure if these 2 combos have to be put into console in order but correct entry will give two different voicelines.) After entering one correctly you will be kicked out to hear voiceline and can re-enter console to input the 2nd shortly afterwards. 7. Now head to Core Foundry, and use a molotov to burn the ascender to access the consoles. 8. Ascend and interact with the consoles, The next part is timed and has a cooldown if you fail - you need to Calibrate the Amplitude and Frequency using the flashing light code. 9. Once this has been done head to the room Next to the Radio Tower and pick up The Wunderbarrage Controller Atomkraft Core 1. Find three uraniums: Uranium #1 Find the Fishing Rod (Olaf’s Personal Item) locations: - Dry Dock - Storm Bridge - Fishery Island - Beacon island Look for a Glowing Green Fish jumping around the water at each Fishing Location and use the Fishing Rod at that location once you see it Fishing Locations: Eidskallen Landing x2 Beacon Island x2 Eidskallen Square x2 Dry Dock (found one so far) Fishery Island x2 Tyr’s Foot (found one so far) Once the fish is caught it will spawn an Irradiated Ravager (HVT) that will disappear and respawn somewhere else, chase it down and kill it (check your map to see its location, it shows up as an HVT). It will drop a Uranium. Uranium #2 Next, Craft an ARC-XD (there is one for free in Eidskallen Square on top of a box near the flame trap, you can get it by fishing as well) and melee the vent at Core Foundry to the left of the zipline to open the Secret ARC-XD Course. Blow up the boat full of barrels. Once the course is completed the 935 Genetic Lab room will be open and another Uranium x2 will be inside a Prison Cell There are several Jars with Heads inside in this room, all labelled A,B,C,D,E Look down the Hallway inside the Lab and note which numbered rooms have Nuclear Symbols 1 = A, 2 = B, 3 = C, 4 = D and 5 = E Take one Jar at a time that corresponds with the Numbers next to Nuclear Symbols and place them on the machine to the right of the cell door, once the correct jars are placed the Jar on the left side of the machine will glow purple and you can pick up acid There is a Big Chunk of Meat on a desk next to multiple drawings in the same Room, interact with it, then Pick up The Necrospike Once you have The Necrospike, use it on the Prison Cell Door, this will trigger a lockpick mini game. Spin the lockpick until the lock turns white 3x to unlock the cell, then pick up the second Uranium. Uranium #3 Next you need to craft or obtain the Glocke Drop, once you have one call it in, then shoot 20 mid-air zombies it throws up. This will drop the third and final Uranium. 2. At the Dry Dock, you need to call a WunderBarrage (unlocked by completing Wundersignal steps) in on the “02 Building” at Dry Dock (where there’s debris on the stairs), this will open the stairs to the Machine Workshop. 3. Inside The Workshop there is a Claw Machine which you can place all of The Uranium inside of and play a mini-game. -Have a big group of 7 cores and a small group of 2 cores. 4. Once you complete the Mini-game you will be able to pick up The Atomkraft Core (Note: you drop if you zipline, and cant sprint with it) 5. Head to Quick Revive and place The Atomkraft Core on generator next to quick revive. Go into the shed behind quick revive and turn on the generator. You must now defend the The Atomkraft Core until it’s charged. In interrupted you must turn on the generator again to continue. 6. Take the The Atomkraft Core to the barrel on the Storm Bridge and a Mini-Cutscene will play between the Giant and The Robot. Vegvisir 1. After the cutscene finishes, The Dravakar Shard will spawn at Tyr’s Foot, pick it up 2. Pick it up and place the Shard inside the Bloodheim Hall on the bonfire 3. Use WW range attack to light the fire 4. Use Disciple Injection (there should be a free one around the map) and throw zombies into the bonfire (I only had to throw four) 5. A lockdown will start. Kill the boss zombie and pick up the Sunstone from the bonfire 6. Put the Sunstone in the church and do a range WW attack on it. 7. Around the map, there will now be floating rocks and runes. Above the church there will now be a compass with runes and arrows. -Shoot the floating rune rocks with the ranged WW in the order of the arrow lines. If an arrow has 1 line, then that's the first one. If an arrow has 2 lines, that's the second one, etc. 8. Go into Tyr's Head and interact with the console to start the boss fight. Credit to Callum and the ZoneX discord

COD: Zombies News

82,267 次观看 • 3 个月前

I’m still in awe of our Japanese fan base and what we’ve managed to build with our incredible Japan team 🇯🇵 Over three years ago, we entered this market with no local presence, no dedicated team, and minimal content—just a passion for esports in a fledgling market. Why enter Japan? → Rapid growth in top video games like Apex Legends and Valorant → A highly engaged audience ready to embrace esports Withe saw an opportunity to build something truly special—a case study in market entry and expansion. Our blueprint was simple: ↳ 1. Build Through Our Core - Establish a top-tier esports team ↳ 2. Localize Content - Develop engaging, trend-following, localized content ↳ 3. Engage Communities - Host community events that bring fans together ↳ 4. Empower Creators - Collaborate with local influencers to authentically connect with the audience In the past three years, we’ve executed over 20 events, established ourselves as the number one Apex Legends team in the region, and cultivated literal Fnatic's, as the AlwaysFnatic family has grown. Just a few weeks ago, the grand finals of the Apex Legends World Championships in Sapporo was a testament to our journey—13,000 fans turned out in the winter cold. We learned after that 50% of the crowd were Fnatic fans, showcasing the deep connection with team, and brand. What’s next on our Japanese journey? We’re excited to continue and expand on our partnership with Sony, activate new initiatives with Red Bull, and explore opportunities with fresh partners. Arigato gozaimasu 🙏. Thank you for being part of this incredible journey. 🧡 🖤
0:49

I’m still in awe of our Japanese fan base and what we’ve managed to build with our incredible Japan team 🇯🇵 Over three years ago, we entered this market with no local presence, no dedicated team, and minimal content—just a passion for esports in a fledgling market. Why enter Japan? → Rapid growth in top video games like Apex Legends and Valorant → A highly engaged audience ready to embrace esports Withe saw an opportunity to build something truly special—a case study in market entry and expansion. Our blueprint was simple: ↳ 1. Build Through Our Core - Establish a top-tier esports team ↳ 2. Localize Content - Develop engaging, trend-following, localized content ↳ 3. Engage Communities - Host community events that bring fans together ↳ 4. Empower Creators - Collaborate with local influencers to authentically connect with the audience In the past three years, we’ve executed over 20 events, established ourselves as the number one Apex Legends team in the region, and cultivated literal Fnatic's, as the AlwaysFnatic family has grown. Just a few weeks ago, the grand finals of the Apex Legends World Championships in Sapporo was a testament to our journey—13,000 fans turned out in the winter cold. We learned after that 50% of the crowd were Fnatic fans, showcasing the deep connection with team, and brand. What’s next on our Japanese journey? We’re excited to continue and expand on our partnership with Sony, activate new initiatives with Red Bull, and explore opportunities with fresh partners. Arigato gozaimasu 🙏. Thank you for being part of this incredible journey. 🧡 🖤

Sam Mathews

51,444 次观看 • 1 年前

Micron will be a $3,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang gave the most important reason why (Save this). Jensen was asked if memory cyclical is just another boom and bust like it's always been? He said three years ago he sat down with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and explained exactly what the future of memory demand would look like and it is playing out exactly as he described. He did the same with SK Hynix's Tony Chey years earlier, Jensen was pre aligning Micron's entire product roadmap to a vision he had already mapped out years in advance. Then he explained why this cycle is structurally different from every previous one. AI has crossed the threshold into agentic, productive capability and the way to think about AI agents is as digital workers. And the earnings confirm it. Micron reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $23.86 billion up 196% yearover-year, beating estimates by 24%. Gross margins hit 74.4%, more than doubling in a single year and Q3 guidance is where it gets truly staggering. Micron guided for Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion up over 200% year over year with gross margins expected to exceed 81% and EPS projected at $19.15 against a consensus of $12.05. Analyst consensus sees full year fiscal 2027 revenue reaching $88 billion. and yet the valuation still has not caught up. Micron's HBM TAM forecast has been pulled forward two years to $100 billion by 2028, its entire 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and HBM4 is already sold out too while the stock still trades at a forward P/E of just roughly 8x on FY2026 consensus earnings. The memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027 and new fabs don't come online until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro subscribers are already up massively in $MU Come join us using the link below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.
2:20

Micron will be a $3,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang gave the most important reason why (Save this). Jensen was asked if memory cyclical is just another boom and bust like it's always been? He said three years ago he sat down with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and explained exactly what the future of memory demand would look like and it is playing out exactly as he described. He did the same with SK Hynix's Tony Chey years earlier, Jensen was pre aligning Micron's entire product roadmap to a vision he had already mapped out years in advance. Then he explained why this cycle is structurally different from every previous one. AI has crossed the threshold into agentic, productive capability and the way to think about AI agents is as digital workers. And the earnings confirm it. Micron reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $23.86 billion up 196% yearover-year, beating estimates by 24%. Gross margins hit 74.4%, more than doubling in a single year and Q3 guidance is where it gets truly staggering. Micron guided for Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion up over 200% year over year with gross margins expected to exceed 81% and EPS projected at $19.15 against a consensus of $12.05. Analyst consensus sees full year fiscal 2027 revenue reaching $88 billion. and yet the valuation still has not caught up. Micron's HBM TAM forecast has been pulled forward two years to $100 billion by 2028, its entire 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and HBM4 is already sold out too while the stock still trades at a forward P/E of just roughly 8x on FY2026 consensus earnings. The memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027 and new fabs don't come online until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro subscribers are already up massively in $MU Come join us using the link below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

Milk Road AI

87,659 次观看 • 2 个月前

Let’s kill the debate. This will be the last Micah trade video you'll need to WATCH!! Micah Parsons isn’t the best DE. He isn’t the best LB. Those boxes were always too small. He is something else: A generational defender. A weapon that bends positions, wrecked schemes, and made coordinators panic. The most complete defensive talent in the NFL. And now… he’s gone. Traded. For Dallas, it’s a declaration of balance over superstar. They flip Parsons for Kenny Clark — one of the most dominant interior forces in the league. Clark instantly stabilizes the middle of that defense, commanding double teams, freeing up edge rushers, and giving Micah’s old teammates the anchor they never had. Add in locking up DaRon Bland, extending Tyler Smith, and bringing in Clowney — Dallas is betting that a deeper, more well-rounded roster outweighs one transcendent star. For Green Bay, it’s a declaration of chaos. Parsons in Green Bay means every offensive coordinator in the NFC North wakes up sweating. He isn’t just an edge. He isn’t just a linebacker. He’s a movable chess piece that transforms the Packers’ front into a nightmare. Pair that with their young secondary and emerging defensive core? Parsons could tilt the balance of power in the conference. This isn’t just a transaction. It’s a philosophical shift. Dallas chose the fortress. Green Bay chose the assassin. I spent months compiling Micah’s accumulation of knowledge, his growth, his dominance, into 45 minutes of film. Not hype. The definitive story. So here’s the question the tape will answer: Did Dallas get stronger by building balance… or did Green Bay just acquire the most dangerous defender alive? Boss *Show Me Terrence Parsons Jr Bitches Love Sports Podcast Patrik [No C] Walker Voch Lombardi Law Nation Media Jon Machota John Owning J Tuck Dez Bryant Datone Jones Dallas Cowboys Landon Holifield ✭ Lord Brunson tweets (Foots The King)
43:57

Let’s kill the debate. This will be the last Micah trade video you'll need to WATCH!! Micah Parsons isn’t the best DE. He isn’t the best LB. Those boxes were always too small. He is something else: A generational defender. A weapon that bends positions, wrecked schemes, and made coordinators panic. The most complete defensive talent in the NFL. And now… he’s gone. Traded. For Dallas, it’s a declaration of balance over superstar. They flip Parsons for Kenny Clark — one of the most dominant interior forces in the league. Clark instantly stabilizes the middle of that defense, commanding double teams, freeing up edge rushers, and giving Micah’s old teammates the anchor they never had. Add in locking up DaRon Bland, extending Tyler Smith, and bringing in Clowney — Dallas is betting that a deeper, more well-rounded roster outweighs one transcendent star. For Green Bay, it’s a declaration of chaos. Parsons in Green Bay means every offensive coordinator in the NFC North wakes up sweating. He isn’t just an edge. He isn’t just a linebacker. He’s a movable chess piece that transforms the Packers’ front into a nightmare. Pair that with their young secondary and emerging defensive core? Parsons could tilt the balance of power in the conference. This isn’t just a transaction. It’s a philosophical shift. Dallas chose the fortress. Green Bay chose the assassin. I spent months compiling Micah’s accumulation of knowledge, his growth, his dominance, into 45 minutes of film. Not hype. The definitive story. So here’s the question the tape will answer: Did Dallas get stronger by building balance… or did Green Bay just acquire the most dangerous defender alive? Boss *Show Me Terrence Parsons Jr Bitches Love Sports Podcast Patrik [No C] Walker Voch Lombardi Law Nation Media Jon Machota John Owning J Tuck Dez Bryant Datone Jones Dallas Cowboys Landon Holifield ✭ Lord Brunson tweets (Foots The King)

Akoye Media

34,245 次观看 • 11 个月前

$AMD $5 Trillion is Inevitable LT| Agentic AI🧵 Agentic AI is the new $5 Trillion TAM 🚨🚨🚨 This thead will do Comp with $INTC and how to quantify this massive Agentic AI demand spike, and forcing Jensen to rush a CPU design. Global Agentic AI Market size is estimated to be $3-$5Trillion TAM by 2030(McKinsey) Quantifying the demand from agentic AI for AMD involves assessing the broader market growth for agentic systems, their unique computational requirements (particularly for CPUs in orchestration and reasoning tasks), and AMD's positioning very well through products like EPYC processors and partnerships. AMD EPYC Venice is the most superior choice in 2026-2027 for most Agentic AI workloads Agentic AI refers to autonomous AI agents that perform multi-step tasks, involving sequential logic, tool integration, and decision-making workloads that heavily rely on CPUs for handling orchestration, memory management, and context switching, rather than just GPU-parallelized training or batch inference. Agentic AI is often cited as 40-100x more "hungry" than traditional AI due to its continuous, 24/7 operation and complex workflows. This stems from factors like chain-of-thought reasoning (multiple LLM calls per query), API/tool interactions, memory management, and orchestration loops, which can generate 10-100x more tokens and require real-time responsiveness. For example, a single agentic query might trigger 5-20 model inferences, making it 10-20x more compute-intensive than simple chatbots, and the always-on nature compounds this to 40-100x overall. Nvidia's CEO has highlighted this as driving "easily 100x more computation" for inference in agentic/reasoning setups. AMD's EPYC Venice (6th Gen EPYC, codenamed "Venice") and Intel's Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids represent the pinnacle of server CPU technology in 2026, both targeting high-performance data center workloads like AI inference, agentic AI orchestration, cloud computing, and HPC. Venice builds on AMD's Zen 6 architecture, emphasizing core density and efficiency, while Diamond Rapids leverages Intel's Panther Cove P-cores for balanced performance. Both chips adopt similar advancements like 16-channel DDR5 memory and PCIe Gen 6, but differ in core counts, process nodes, and overall design philosophy. Intel has faced acute supply constraints across its Xeon lineup, including legacy nodes (Intel 7/3) and the ramping 18A process for next-gen parts. Intel shortage is expected with lead times up to 6 months or longer. 1. AMD EPYC Venice vs Intel Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids Architecture AMD: Zen 6 chiplet design with 8 CCDs and dual IODs Intel: Panther Cove P-cores; multi-die architecture with 4 compute tiles Core/Thread Count AMD: Up to 256 cores / 512 threads (Zen 6c variant) Intel: Up to 192 cores / 192 threads Process Node AMD: TSMC N2 (2nm) Intel: Intel 18A (1.8nm-class); in-house fab Memory Support AMD: 16-channel DDR5; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth. Intel: 16-channel DDR5 ; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth I/O and Connectivity AMD: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); twice the CPU-to-GPU bandwidth Intel: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); LGA 9324 socket Power (TDP) AMD: Starting 400-500W, potentially lower due to efficiency gains from TSMC 2nm Intel: Starting 400-500W, as it targets competitive efficiency Performance Projections AMD: Up to 70% uplift vs. 5th Gen Turin (1.7x in multi-threaded/AI tasks) Intel: ~40% faster than Granite Rapids (Xeon 6, 128-core). Lags AMD in per-core perf and 40-50% behind Venice core-for-core comp Target Workloads AMD: AI inference/orchestration, HPC, cloud virtualization. Partnerships Intel: Hyperscale AI, general enterprise. Custom silicon Pricing: AMD: estimated $10k-$20k for top SKUs Intel: estimated $8-$18k Availability: AMD: Significant Ramp H2 2026 due to higher allocation from TSMC Intel: H1-H2 2026 delayed, but trying to catch up Overall: ~Venice's 256 cores provide a 33% edge over Diamond Rapids' 192, making it superior for massively parallel tasks like AI training/inference or virtualization ~TSMC's N2 vs. Intel 18A debates rage on which is "better," but AMD's mature chiplet approach yields better density ( 32 cores/CCD vs. Intel's 48/tile). Venice's redesign reduces latency, aiding agentic AI where CPUs handle orchestration ~ Early projections show Venice widening AMD's lead matching or exceeding Diamond Rapids' perf with fewer watts in multi-threaded benchmarks. Intel's no-SMT design (to prioritize AI) handicaps it vs. AMD's 512 threads, though Clearwater Forest (E-core) could compete in density-focused niches. ~Power & Cooling: Both push above 400-500W, demanding liquid cooling. ~AMD been taking market share now above 40%. AMD EPYC Venice emerges as the superior choice in 2026 for most server workloads. Its higher core/thread count (256/512 vs. 192/192), stronger per-core performance, and architecture optimized for AI-driven tasks (agentic orchestration with GPU integration) provide decisive advantages in throughput, scalability, and efficiency. Projections indicate Venice delivering 1.7x the performance of prior gens while widening the gap over Intel ( 40-70% leads in multi-threaded benchmarks). AMD's fabless model with TSMC ensures reliable scaling, and its ecosystem ( open ROCm) appeals to AI adopters. Intel's Diamond Rapids is competitive in single-threaded enterprise apps and custom hyperscale ( NVLink), with potential fab advantages for supply/security. However, without SMT and lower density, it falls short in core-for-core battles—exposing Intel to another generation of AMD dominance unless 18A yields surprise efficiency gains. For data centers prioritizing raw compute ( AI, HPC), Venice wins; for Intel-centric ecosystems or specialized I/O, Diamond Rapids holds ground. Real benchmarks post-launch will confirm, but logic points to AMD pulling ahead. 2. Market size , Potential Revenue and Supply Global Agentic AI market size is projected to be $3-$5 Trillion by 2030 according to McKinsey, where consensus points to 40-50% CAGR driven by small to large enterprise demand. I also wrote a full thread on how and why Agentic AI is so explosive that AMD will blow all anlaysts estimate for subscribers. Link below if you are interested. AMD's data center segment hit a record $5.4B in Q4 2025 (up 39% YoY), with EPYC shipments ramping due to agentic demand. With 2GW of deployment in H2 2026, AMD AI data center revenue has $40-$50B+ at the lowest or most conservative projection; or Total Revenue in the $77-$94B For FY2026. However, Agentic AI massive demand spike could send EPYC revenue 3x to 4x in the next few years, potentially surpassing MI series GPU demand as enterprises prioritize CPU-dense Rack setups. This is pushing $NVDA Jensen to rush a CPU design and acquired Groq, a new CPU player due to this massive TAM. Noted that this is just popping just in weeks, highlighting we are just so early in this AI Supercycle and the pace of adoption is insane, and clearly productivity will skyrocket. Why? Because Agentic AI is 24/7 Smart AI agent working for you or your businesses is a mad compelling, and it is estimated to be 40-100x more Inference Hugnry! Many experts already said it is impossible to project this kind of Inference Demand. AI CapEx is expected to ramp up even more in 2027-2028-2029 and 2030 as Global Agentic AI is going to scale to $3-$5 Trillion TAM by 2030. The nature of Agentic is driving higher CPU/GPU ratio, with CPUs handling 50-90% of Agentic workflows. For example, The current Helios Rack: 18 compute trays per rack with 72 GPUs + 18 CPUs. The beauty of this $META and $AMD long term partnership is, that it is absolutely flexible to adjust racks to higher CPU rato or equal to service different needs. Helios rack can be easily swap to 2 GPUs 2CPUs or even CPUs only trays for dedicated orchestration/head nodes. You see, the beauty of this open rack-scale is flexibility and evolvability. If Agentic AI demand pushes much higher, AMD should be able to adjust variant trays without abandoning Heilos Rack. We can't talk just about massive Agentic AI demand without talking about the Supply side or TSMC. TSMC, AMD's primary foundry for advanced nodes ( Zen 6/Venice on N2/2nm), is addressing AI-driven shortages through massive expansions. TSMC accelerates fab construction with up to 10 facilities targeted for 2026. TSMC is accelerating its domestic manufacturing expansion, with industry sources indicating that as many as ten fabs could be under construction or preparing to begin operations across Taiwan’s major science parks. TSMC Capex: $52-56B in 2026 (up 37% YoY), with $45B already approved for new/upgraded capacities. 70-80% for advanced processes (2nm/A16), 10-20% for packaging (CoWoS quadrupling to 120-140K wafers/month by late 2026). In addition, Taiwanese companies (led by TSMC) commit to at least $250B in direct investments in US-based advanced semiconductor, AI, and energy production/innovation capacity.Taiwan provides $250B in government credit guarantees to facilitate additional investments and build a full US semiconductor ecosystem (including industrial parks). TSMC completed a second land purchase in Arizona (January 2026) for gigafab scaling, with an additional $100B+ (potentially four more modules) to further expand and qualify for tariff exemptions. AMD with secured 12GW from OpenAI and $META and massive Agentic AI will mean higher priority acess to 20-30% more wafers on TSMC advanced nodes, as TSMC has multi-year agreements with AMD for AI chips. Dr. C. C. Wei, CEO of TSMC quote: "I spend a lot of time in the last three or four months talking to my customer and then customers. Customer. I want to make sure that my customers demand are real. I talk to those cloud service providers, all of them. Their answer is. I'm quite satisfied with their answer. Actually they show me the evidence that the AI really help their business. So they grow their business successfully and he or she in their financial return. So I also double check their financial status. They are very rich." Amid shortages, the US buildout ensures AMD can ramp production of Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs without the constraints hitting competitors like Intel. By diversifying away from Taiwan (85% of advanced nodes today), the agreement mitigates supply disruptions, ensuring stable flows for AMD's chips. Scaling production and securing supply will matter for AMD the most in the next 5-10 years growth. The growth could be 80-100% YoY or higher; or it could be in the 60%. The aggressive TSMC supply ramp is reassuring the higher growth point. Conclusion: AMD stands at a pivotal inflection point in 2026, where the explosive rise of agentic AI demanding 40-100x more inference compute through its 24/7, multi-step orchestration positions the company to potentially triple its EPYC CPU revenue to $45-60B+ by 2028 while scaling Instinct GPUs to tens of billions annually by 2027. Agentic AI demand could push AI CapEx closer to $1 Trillion in 2027, far higher than most estimates. Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's visionary CEO, is masterfully securing supply to harness this massive demand by prioritizing operational execution and deep TSMC collaboration, ensuring readiness for the second-half 2026 AI ramp. Dr. Su has explicitly called out surging EPYC demand for agentic tasks where CPUs power head nodes and traditional workloads alongside GPUs while guiding for data center dominance through proactive capacity planning and partnerships like Nutanix ($150M investment for open agentic platforms) or providing tens of millions CPUs for OpenAI, $META, $ORCL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL and others. Her strategy includes multi-year TSMC agreements for advanced nodes (N2 for Venice CPUs and future Instincts), diversifying beyond Taiwan to mitigate risks, and unveiling innovations like the MI455X GPU at CES 2026, which she touted as enabling "the next trillion-dollar market opportunity" in physical AI. Dr. Su's forward-looking vision predicting AI reaching 5 billion users emphasizes "AI everywhere," backed by hardware like Ryzen AI chips, all while declaring demand "going through the roof" and committing to scale without bottlenecks. TSMC's aggressive ramp-up, fueled by $52-56B in 2026 capex (up 37% YoY) and 10+ new fabs across Taiwan, the US (Arizona cluster expanding to 6+ modules with $165B+ investment), Japan, and Europe, provides profound reassurance for AMD's supply stability. The January 2026 US-Taiwan agreement committing $250B in investments and credit guarantees for US reshoring accelerates this, granting tariff relief (15% rates with 1.5-2.5x exemptions) tied to capacity buildouts, enabling TSMC to potentially double output over the decade to meet AI wafer hunger. This translates to 20-30% higher wafer allocations on key nodes, sidestepping Intel-like shortages and empowering Dr. Su's team to deliver on hyperscaler demands without disruption. Ultimately, this synergy cements AMD's leadership in the agentic era, promising sustained growth, $5T+ valuations at scale, and a resilient path forward as AI reshapes the world. This is NOT Financial Advice! Video source: AMD CES 2026
2:49

$AMD $5 Trillion is Inevitable LT| Agentic AI🧵 Agentic AI is the new $5 Trillion TAM 🚨🚨🚨 This thead will do Comp with $INTC and how to quantify this massive Agentic AI demand spike, and forcing Jensen to rush a CPU design. Global Agentic AI Market size is estimated to be $3-$5Trillion TAM by 2030(McKinsey) Quantifying the demand from agentic AI for AMD involves assessing the broader market growth for agentic systems, their unique computational requirements (particularly for CPUs in orchestration and reasoning tasks), and AMD's positioning very well through products like EPYC processors and partnerships. AMD EPYC Venice is the most superior choice in 2026-2027 for most Agentic AI workloads Agentic AI refers to autonomous AI agents that perform multi-step tasks, involving sequential logic, tool integration, and decision-making workloads that heavily rely on CPUs for handling orchestration, memory management, and context switching, rather than just GPU-parallelized training or batch inference. Agentic AI is often cited as 40-100x more "hungry" than traditional AI due to its continuous, 24/7 operation and complex workflows. This stems from factors like chain-of-thought reasoning (multiple LLM calls per query), API/tool interactions, memory management, and orchestration loops, which can generate 10-100x more tokens and require real-time responsiveness. For example, a single agentic query might trigger 5-20 model inferences, making it 10-20x more compute-intensive than simple chatbots, and the always-on nature compounds this to 40-100x overall. Nvidia's CEO has highlighted this as driving "easily 100x more computation" for inference in agentic/reasoning setups. AMD's EPYC Venice (6th Gen EPYC, codenamed "Venice") and Intel's Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids represent the pinnacle of server CPU technology in 2026, both targeting high-performance data center workloads like AI inference, agentic AI orchestration, cloud computing, and HPC. Venice builds on AMD's Zen 6 architecture, emphasizing core density and efficiency, while Diamond Rapids leverages Intel's Panther Cove P-cores for balanced performance. Both chips adopt similar advancements like 16-channel DDR5 memory and PCIe Gen 6, but differ in core counts, process nodes, and overall design philosophy. Intel has faced acute supply constraints across its Xeon lineup, including legacy nodes (Intel 7/3) and the ramping 18A process for next-gen parts. Intel shortage is expected with lead times up to 6 months or longer. 1. AMD EPYC Venice vs Intel Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids Architecture AMD: Zen 6 chiplet design with 8 CCDs and dual IODs Intel: Panther Cove P-cores; multi-die architecture with 4 compute tiles Core/Thread Count AMD: Up to 256 cores / 512 threads (Zen 6c variant) Intel: Up to 192 cores / 192 threads Process Node AMD: TSMC N2 (2nm) Intel: Intel 18A (1.8nm-class); in-house fab Memory Support AMD: 16-channel DDR5; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth. Intel: 16-channel DDR5 ; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth I/O and Connectivity AMD: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); twice the CPU-to-GPU bandwidth Intel: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); LGA 9324 socket Power (TDP) AMD: Starting 400-500W, potentially lower due to efficiency gains from TSMC 2nm Intel: Starting 400-500W, as it targets competitive efficiency Performance Projections AMD: Up to 70% uplift vs. 5th Gen Turin (1.7x in multi-threaded/AI tasks) Intel: ~40% faster than Granite Rapids (Xeon 6, 128-core). Lags AMD in per-core perf and 40-50% behind Venice core-for-core comp Target Workloads AMD: AI inference/orchestration, HPC, cloud virtualization. Partnerships Intel: Hyperscale AI, general enterprise. Custom silicon Pricing: AMD: estimated $10k-$20k for top SKUs Intel: estimated $8-$18k Availability: AMD: Significant Ramp H2 2026 due to higher allocation from TSMC Intel: H1-H2 2026 delayed, but trying to catch up Overall: ~Venice's 256 cores provide a 33% edge over Diamond Rapids' 192, making it superior for massively parallel tasks like AI training/inference or virtualization ~TSMC's N2 vs. Intel 18A debates rage on which is "better," but AMD's mature chiplet approach yields better density ( 32 cores/CCD vs. Intel's 48/tile). Venice's redesign reduces latency, aiding agentic AI where CPUs handle orchestration ~ Early projections show Venice widening AMD's lead matching or exceeding Diamond Rapids' perf with fewer watts in multi-threaded benchmarks. Intel's no-SMT design (to prioritize AI) handicaps it vs. AMD's 512 threads, though Clearwater Forest (E-core) could compete in density-focused niches. ~Power & Cooling: Both push above 400-500W, demanding liquid cooling. ~AMD been taking market share now above 40%. AMD EPYC Venice emerges as the superior choice in 2026 for most server workloads. Its higher core/thread count (256/512 vs. 192/192), stronger per-core performance, and architecture optimized for AI-driven tasks (agentic orchestration with GPU integration) provide decisive advantages in throughput, scalability, and efficiency. Projections indicate Venice delivering 1.7x the performance of prior gens while widening the gap over Intel ( 40-70% leads in multi-threaded benchmarks). AMD's fabless model with TSMC ensures reliable scaling, and its ecosystem ( open ROCm) appeals to AI adopters. Intel's Diamond Rapids is competitive in single-threaded enterprise apps and custom hyperscale ( NVLink), with potential fab advantages for supply/security. However, without SMT and lower density, it falls short in core-for-core battles—exposing Intel to another generation of AMD dominance unless 18A yields surprise efficiency gains. For data centers prioritizing raw compute ( AI, HPC), Venice wins; for Intel-centric ecosystems or specialized I/O, Diamond Rapids holds ground. Real benchmarks post-launch will confirm, but logic points to AMD pulling ahead. 2. Market size , Potential Revenue and Supply Global Agentic AI market size is projected to be $3-$5 Trillion by 2030 according to McKinsey, where consensus points to 40-50% CAGR driven by small to large enterprise demand. I also wrote a full thread on how and why Agentic AI is so explosive that AMD will blow all anlaysts estimate for subscribers. Link below if you are interested. AMD's data center segment hit a record $5.4B in Q4 2025 (up 39% YoY), with EPYC shipments ramping due to agentic demand. With 2GW of deployment in H2 2026, AMD AI data center revenue has $40-$50B+ at the lowest or most conservative projection; or Total Revenue in the $77-$94B For FY2026. However, Agentic AI massive demand spike could send EPYC revenue 3x to 4x in the next few years, potentially surpassing MI series GPU demand as enterprises prioritize CPU-dense Rack setups. This is pushing $NVDA Jensen to rush a CPU design and acquired Groq, a new CPU player due to this massive TAM. Noted that this is just popping just in weeks, highlighting we are just so early in this AI Supercycle and the pace of adoption is insane, and clearly productivity will skyrocket. Why? Because Agentic AI is 24/7 Smart AI agent working for you or your businesses is a mad compelling, and it is estimated to be 40-100x more Inference Hugnry! Many experts already said it is impossible to project this kind of Inference Demand. AI CapEx is expected to ramp up even more in 2027-2028-2029 and 2030 as Global Agentic AI is going to scale to $3-$5 Trillion TAM by 2030. The nature of Agentic is driving higher CPU/GPU ratio, with CPUs handling 50-90% of Agentic workflows. For example, The current Helios Rack: 18 compute trays per rack with 72 GPUs + 18 CPUs. The beauty of this $META and $AMD long term partnership is, that it is absolutely flexible to adjust racks to higher CPU rato or equal to service different needs. Helios rack can be easily swap to 2 GPUs 2CPUs or even CPUs only trays for dedicated orchestration/head nodes. You see, the beauty of this open rack-scale is flexibility and evolvability. If Agentic AI demand pushes much higher, AMD should be able to adjust variant trays without abandoning Heilos Rack. We can't talk just about massive Agentic AI demand without talking about the Supply side or TSMC. TSMC, AMD's primary foundry for advanced nodes ( Zen 6/Venice on N2/2nm), is addressing AI-driven shortages through massive expansions. TSMC accelerates fab construction with up to 10 facilities targeted for 2026. TSMC is accelerating its domestic manufacturing expansion, with industry sources indicating that as many as ten fabs could be under construction or preparing to begin operations across Taiwan’s major science parks. TSMC Capex: $52-56B in 2026 (up 37% YoY), with $45B already approved for new/upgraded capacities. 70-80% for advanced processes (2nm/A16), 10-20% for packaging (CoWoS quadrupling to 120-140K wafers/month by late 2026). In addition, Taiwanese companies (led by TSMC) commit to at least $250B in direct investments in US-based advanced semiconductor, AI, and energy production/innovation capacity.Taiwan provides $250B in government credit guarantees to facilitate additional investments and build a full US semiconductor ecosystem (including industrial parks). TSMC completed a second land purchase in Arizona (January 2026) for gigafab scaling, with an additional $100B+ (potentially four more modules) to further expand and qualify for tariff exemptions. AMD with secured 12GW from OpenAI and $META and massive Agentic AI will mean higher priority acess to 20-30% more wafers on TSMC advanced nodes, as TSMC has multi-year agreements with AMD for AI chips. Dr. C. C. Wei, CEO of TSMC quote: "I spend a lot of time in the last three or four months talking to my customer and then customers. Customer. I want to make sure that my customers demand are real. I talk to those cloud service providers, all of them. Their answer is. I'm quite satisfied with their answer. Actually they show me the evidence that the AI really help their business. So they grow their business successfully and he or she in their financial return. So I also double check their financial status. They are very rich." Amid shortages, the US buildout ensures AMD can ramp production of Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs without the constraints hitting competitors like Intel. By diversifying away from Taiwan (85% of advanced nodes today), the agreement mitigates supply disruptions, ensuring stable flows for AMD's chips. Scaling production and securing supply will matter for AMD the most in the next 5-10 years growth. The growth could be 80-100% YoY or higher; or it could be in the 60%. The aggressive TSMC supply ramp is reassuring the higher growth point. Conclusion: AMD stands at a pivotal inflection point in 2026, where the explosive rise of agentic AI demanding 40-100x more inference compute through its 24/7, multi-step orchestration positions the company to potentially triple its EPYC CPU revenue to $45-60B+ by 2028 while scaling Instinct GPUs to tens of billions annually by 2027. Agentic AI demand could push AI CapEx closer to $1 Trillion in 2027, far higher than most estimates. Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's visionary CEO, is masterfully securing supply to harness this massive demand by prioritizing operational execution and deep TSMC collaboration, ensuring readiness for the second-half 2026 AI ramp. Dr. Su has explicitly called out surging EPYC demand for agentic tasks where CPUs power head nodes and traditional workloads alongside GPUs while guiding for data center dominance through proactive capacity planning and partnerships like Nutanix ($150M investment for open agentic platforms) or providing tens of millions CPUs for OpenAI, $META, $ORCL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL and others. Her strategy includes multi-year TSMC agreements for advanced nodes (N2 for Venice CPUs and future Instincts), diversifying beyond Taiwan to mitigate risks, and unveiling innovations like the MI455X GPU at CES 2026, which she touted as enabling "the next trillion-dollar market opportunity" in physical AI. Dr. Su's forward-looking vision predicting AI reaching 5 billion users emphasizes "AI everywhere," backed by hardware like Ryzen AI chips, all while declaring demand "going through the roof" and committing to scale without bottlenecks. TSMC's aggressive ramp-up, fueled by $52-56B in 2026 capex (up 37% YoY) and 10+ new fabs across Taiwan, the US (Arizona cluster expanding to 6+ modules with $165B+ investment), Japan, and Europe, provides profound reassurance for AMD's supply stability. The January 2026 US-Taiwan agreement committing $250B in investments and credit guarantees for US reshoring accelerates this, granting tariff relief (15% rates with 1.5-2.5x exemptions) tied to capacity buildouts, enabling TSMC to potentially double output over the decade to meet AI wafer hunger. This translates to 20-30% higher wafer allocations on key nodes, sidestepping Intel-like shortages and empowering Dr. Su's team to deliver on hyperscaler demands without disruption. Ultimately, this synergy cements AMD's leadership in the agentic era, promising sustained growth, $5T+ valuations at scale, and a resilient path forward as AI reshapes the world. This is NOT Financial Advice! Video source: AMD CES 2026

Mike

44,460 次观看 • 5 个月前

$APP's pivot to e-commerce is a very intriguing strategy. The market perceives the entry of non-gaming advertisers as a potential friction point that could crowd out core gaming clients or inflate pricing, but this ignores the massive asymmetry between AppLovin’s reach of over one billion daily active users and its historically thin roster of active advertisers. This imbalance has meant that the vast amount of inventory were previously under-monetized, as the algorithm could only serve gaming ads to users who had no intent to install new games. By layering in e-commerce demand, the platform effectively monetizes this wasted inventory, driving up overall yield and floor prices without cannibalizing the high-intent impressions reserved for gaming clients. This creates a margin-accretive dynamic where the same unit of supply generates significantly higher revenue per user solely through better demand matching. This efficiency gain feeds directly into a data-driven moat that becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate. The flywheel is the introduction of transactional e-commerce data that radically improves the Axon AI model's predictive capabilities for all participants. Unlike app install data, which is binary and relatively sparse, e-commerce purchase data provides immediate high-fidelity signals about user intent and purchasing power. As the model ingests this new layer of behavioral data, its ability to predict conversion improves universally, meaning that gaming advertisers actually benefit from the presence of e-commerce bids through sharper targeting and higher return on ad spend. The rapid 50% week over week growth in the self-service pilot is a great preliminary validation that this automated demand engine is functional. This signals that AppLovin can scale this new vertical with software operating leverage. The requirement for high-production video ads has left out the long tail of millions of small business advertisers who dominate platforms like $META. The launch of generative AI creative tools targets this specific bottleneck, commoditizing the production of high-performing video assets and allowing AppLovin to unlock global SMB demand instantly. If successful, this creates a self-reinforcing liquidity cycle where increased advertiser density leads to better data, which drives superior model performance, which in turn attracts more diverse advertisers. This helps decouple the company's growth trajectory from the cyclicality of the mobile gaming market. Really interesting biz and great CEO.
5:53

$APP's pivot to e-commerce is a very intriguing strategy. The market perceives the entry of non-gaming advertisers as a potential friction point that could crowd out core gaming clients or inflate pricing, but this ignores the massive asymmetry between AppLovin’s reach of over one billion daily active users and its historically thin roster of active advertisers. This imbalance has meant that the vast amount of inventory were previously under-monetized, as the algorithm could only serve gaming ads to users who had no intent to install new games. By layering in e-commerce demand, the platform effectively monetizes this wasted inventory, driving up overall yield and floor prices without cannibalizing the high-intent impressions reserved for gaming clients. This creates a margin-accretive dynamic where the same unit of supply generates significantly higher revenue per user solely through better demand matching. This efficiency gain feeds directly into a data-driven moat that becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate. The flywheel is the introduction of transactional e-commerce data that radically improves the Axon AI model's predictive capabilities for all participants. Unlike app install data, which is binary and relatively sparse, e-commerce purchase data provides immediate high-fidelity signals about user intent and purchasing power. As the model ingests this new layer of behavioral data, its ability to predict conversion improves universally, meaning that gaming advertisers actually benefit from the presence of e-commerce bids through sharper targeting and higher return on ad spend. The rapid 50% week over week growth in the self-service pilot is a great preliminary validation that this automated demand engine is functional. This signals that AppLovin can scale this new vertical with software operating leverage. The requirement for high-production video ads has left out the long tail of millions of small business advertisers who dominate platforms like $META. The launch of generative AI creative tools targets this specific bottleneck, commoditizing the production of high-performing video assets and allowing AppLovin to unlock global SMB demand instantly. If successful, this creates a self-reinforcing liquidity cycle where increased advertiser density leads to better data, which drives superior model performance, which in turn attracts more diverse advertisers. This helps decouple the company's growth trajectory from the cyclicality of the mobile gaming market. Really interesting biz and great CEO.

CapexAndChill

29,897 次观看 • 6 个月前

Micron will be a $2,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang just gave the most important reason why (Save this). Jensen was asked if memory cyclical is just another boom and bust like it's always been? Jensen's answer was remarkable. He said three years ago he sat down with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and explained exactly what the future of memory demand would look like and it is playing out exactly as he described. He did the same with SK Hynix's Tony Chey years earlier, Jensen was pre aligning Micron's entire product roadmap to a vision he had already mapped out years in advance. Then he explained why this cycle is structurally different from every previous one. AI has crossed the threshold into agentic, productive capability and the way to think about AI agents is as digital workers. Michael Dell put it plainly, you might soon have hundreds or thousands of digital agents working for you simultaneously, and each one requires compute, memory, storage, and networking at scale. The earnings confirm it. Micron reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $23.86 billion up 196% yearover-year, beating estimates by 24%. Gross margins hit 74.4%, more than doubling in a single year and Q3 guidance is where it gets truly staggering. Micron guided for Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion up over 200% year over year with gross margins expected to exceed 81% and EPS projected at $19.15 against a consensus of $12.05. Analyst consensus sees full-year fiscal 2027 revenue reaching $88 billion. and yet the valuation still has not caught up. Micron's HBM TAM forecast has been pulled forward two years to $100 billion by 2028, its entire 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and HBM4 is already sold out too while the stock still trades at a forward P/E of just roughly 8x on FY2026 consensus earnings. The memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027 and new fabs don't come online until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call, and our subscribers are already positioned in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.
2:20

Micron will be a $2,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang just gave the most important reason why (Save this). Jensen was asked if memory cyclical is just another boom and bust like it's always been? Jensen's answer was remarkable. He said three years ago he sat down with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and explained exactly what the future of memory demand would look like and it is playing out exactly as he described. He did the same with SK Hynix's Tony Chey years earlier, Jensen was pre aligning Micron's entire product roadmap to a vision he had already mapped out years in advance. Then he explained why this cycle is structurally different from every previous one. AI has crossed the threshold into agentic, productive capability and the way to think about AI agents is as digital workers. Michael Dell put it plainly, you might soon have hundreds or thousands of digital agents working for you simultaneously, and each one requires compute, memory, storage, and networking at scale. The earnings confirm it. Micron reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $23.86 billion up 196% yearover-year, beating estimates by 24%. Gross margins hit 74.4%, more than doubling in a single year and Q3 guidance is where it gets truly staggering. Micron guided for Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion up over 200% year over year with gross margins expected to exceed 81% and EPS projected at $19.15 against a consensus of $12.05. Analyst consensus sees full-year fiscal 2027 revenue reaching $88 billion. and yet the valuation still has not caught up. Micron's HBM TAM forecast has been pulled forward two years to $100 billion by 2028, its entire 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and HBM4 is already sold out too while the stock still trades at a forward P/E of just roughly 8x on FY2026 consensus earnings. The memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027 and new fabs don't come online until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call, and our subscribers are already positioned in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

Milk Road AI

100,736 次观看 • 3 个月前

🌍 Official Announcement 3rd Global GCV Conference – October 19, 2025 The Global GCV Core Team proudly announces the 3rd Global GCV Conference, taking place on October 19, 2025 at 7:00 PM Philippine Time (PST). 🎯 Theme “Mainnet Readiness: Harnessing the Power of GCV Ambassadors & GCV Industry Alliances” 🔹 GCV Ambassadors provide local leadership, outreach, and education. 🔹 The Industry Alliance fosters real-world commerce and strategic partnerships. United, these forces represent true readiness for Mainnet. 🔗 Join Live on X Space 🎤 Host 🇵🇭 Lumari – Chair, GCV International Industry Alliance & Chairperson and Executive Director, GCV Core Team Ms. Lumari is the Chairperson and Executive Director of the Global GCV Core Team and Chair of the GCV International Industry Alliance. A graduate of two degrees, she manages the GCV Global Movement, driving connections between real businesses worldwide and appointing GCV envoys across the globe, while mentoring Ecosystem Development Ambassadors to build a strong and sustainable GCV ecosystem. She has spearheaded five major global conferences, addressed 25 international events, and trains and guides Education Ambassadors to ensure high-quality, consistent training throughout the ecosystem. 🎤 Co-Hosts 🇻🇳 Mr. Jojo – Vice Chair, International Alliance & Assistant Executive Director Mr. JoJo helps manage the GCV Global Movement alongside Ms. Lumari, connecting pioneers, ambassadors, and businesses worldwide. A seasoned entrepreneur with degrees in Electronics, Automation, and English, and advanced studies in Engineering in the US and Europe, he combines technical knowledge with practical business acumen to drive international growth. He has transformed the GCV movement by translating Ms. Doris Yin’s articles into 40 languages, authoring thousands of community pieces, and writing over 30 GCV songs that inspire and guide leaders globally. 🇨🇮 Mr. Iyanda Cherif Abiola – Head Africa, Publicity Director Mr. Cherif Abiola Iyanda is the Head of Africa for GCV, overseeing 40 countries, and the Head GCV Ambassador for Ivory Coast, while also serving as Publicity Director for the Global GCV Core Team. As CEO of Tactic Groupe SARL and MiraZat, he brings expertise in cryptocurrencies, web entrepreneurship, and international trade, driving innovation and economic growth across the region. Passionate about education and community development, he has led initiatives such as the English Marathon at AIESEC, organized barter events, and represented GCV in television interviews to advance decentralized technologies. 📢 Keynote Speakers & Introductions 🇨🇦 Ms. Doris Yin – Founder GCV Movement Ms. Doris Yin is the Founder of the Global GCV Movement and the author of the Pioneer’s Handbook. She is a Canadian who holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics from Anhui University of Finance and Economics in China, and a Bachelor's degree in Accounting from Concordia University in Canada. She is a former Certified Public Accountant (CPA) in the USA and is currently a USA IRS Certified Enrolled Agent tax professional. 🇨🇳 Mr. Jian Ping Zhen – Chair Envoy, China Mr. Jian Ping Zhen is an accomplished leader in beauty and hairdressing education with extensive expertise in market training and brand development, and since 2019 has spearheaded Pi Network’s ecosystem expansion in Guangdong. As Chairman of the Oriental Purple Lotus Industry Alliance Management Committee, he excels in market strategy, project management, and forging partnerships that strengthen emerging digital ecosystems. He now serves as Industry Alliance GCV China Special Envoy and Chair, guiding the integration of Global Consensus Value within China and fostering cross-border collaboration to accelerate Pi’s global growth. 🇻🇳 Dao Duc Viet – Chair Envoy, Vietnam Dao Duc Viet is the Head GCV Ambassador for Vietnam and General Director of FDAO Technology & Logistics. A pioneer in promoting the Pi Network and the GCV 314159$ movement, he has built a strong foundation in business, technology, logistics, and digital finance. Passionate about financial education, community development, and digital economic innovation, he is committed to building a sustainable and humane GCV ecosystem based on unity, trust, and long-term growth. 🇹🇭 Mr. Apiwit Noknakorn – Vice Chair Envoy, Thailand Mr. Apiwit Noknakorn is a Thai entrepreneur and innovator with a career spanning engineering, large-scale business leadership, and digital finance. With a Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering, he became Manager at one of Thailand’s largest textile companies before leading a network of over ten companies across diverse industries. Today he heads Thailand’s recycling sector as founder of PA Group 1998 Co., Ltd. and owner of Mai Lamon Café, combining online marketing expertise and cryptocurrency trading success to drive strategic growth. 🇵🇭 Mr. Jerwin Mansilla Figueroa – Chair Envoy, Philippines Mr. Jerwin Mansilla Figueroa is a visionary business leader and hospitality innovator with over 15 years of international experience transforming operations into high-performing enterprises across the Philippines and UAE. As Chairman and Founder of Alpha Tours Car Rental and Transport Cooperative, he drives strategic growth, operational excellence, and market expansion while setting new benchmarks for customer service and efficiency. 🇵🇸 Mr. Samer Sioury – Chair Envoy, Arab Region Mr. Sioury is a dynamic real estate entrepreneur with a Bachelor's degree in Financial and Banking Sciences. As owner of Samer Sioury Real Estate Services and partner in a tourist car rental company, he brings hands-on experience in property management, business development, and international client relations. His expertise in managing assets, building partnerships, and navigating cross-border ventures drives industry collaboration and expands the GCV ecosystem throughout the Arab Region. 🇧🇯 Mr. Letenou Fongang Gidrin – Chair Envoy, Benin Mr. Letenou Fongang Gidrin, Head GCV Ambassador from Cameroon, is a multifaceted professional with a background in civil infography, IT, management, culinary arts, and hospitality services. He has served as director of several small enterprises and currently holds the position of Managing Director at MJ Works, a civil engineering firm. Additionally, he serves as Secretary General of Syndaprocac, actively contributing to industry development and regulatory leadership. 🇮🇩 Ms. Nonny Padja – Vice Executive Director, Indonesia Nonny Padja is the Training Director of Global GCV CT, Vice Chair of the Global GCV Core Team Committee, GCV Global Ambassador, and Head of the Indonesia GCV Ambassador. With over 18 years of experience as a midwife in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, she now leads the International Love Hope Branch and manages 20 Telegram and 10 WhatsApp groups to support pioneers. 🇻🇳 Ms. Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt – Education Ambassador, Vietnam Ms. Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt is a dynamic educator with over a decade of experience in Eastern medicine, healthcare training, and digital transformation. As GCV Education Ambassador for Vietnam, she leads mentorship, innovative training, and community-building initiatives that empower members to maximize their potential within the Pi Network and GCV ecosystems. 🇹🇭 Ms. Rung Arun Maneechot – Head GCV Ambassador, Thailand Ms. Rung Arun Maneechot leads a movement of over 40,000 GCV supporters. A graduate of Phetkasem Bangkok School of Management with a Bachelor’s degree in Marketing Business Administration, she is CEO of Makro Flower Business, overseeing operations nationwide while mobilizing pioneers and educating merchants. 🇨🇳 Mr. Shi Long Yu – Head GCV Ambassador, China Mr. Shi Long Yu is a seasoned leader with 24 years in the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force, retired as a regimental-level cadre, and now serves as Head GCV Ambassador in China, GCV Ambassador for Greater China, Executive Director of the GCV Core Team for Greater China, Vice Chairman of the GCV Industry Alliance for Greater China, and Chief GCV Ambassador of Hunan Province. 🇹🇷 Mr. Ali Yanık – Head GCV Ambassador, Turkey Mr. Ali Yanık is a retired Senior Sergeant from the Turkish Armed Forces and holds a degree in Public Administration. Since 2019, he has been an active Pi miner, volunteer instructor, and Head GCV Ambassador for Turkey, mentoring the GCV community nationwide and promoting the vision of a decentralized economy. 🇮🇳 Mr. Raaj Sharma – Head GCV Ambassador, India Mr. Raaj Sharma is a dedicated Pi Pioneer and currently serves as Head GCV Ambassador of India. He is also the National Speaker for the Pi Academy of India and has led numerous barter events across the country. He continues to promote GCV education, mentorship, and community engagement to strengthen adoption and unity in India. 🕓 Local Time Conversion 🇧🇯 Benin – 12:00 PM (noon) 🇨🇦 Canada (Toronto) – 7:00 AM 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast – 11:00 AM 🇨🇳 China – 7:00 PM 🇮🇳 India – 4:30 PM 🇮🇩 Indonesia (Jakarta) – 6:00 PM 🇯🇴 Jordan – 2:00 PM 🇯🇵 Japan – 8:00 PM 🇰🇷 Korea – 8:00 PM 🇵🇭 Philippines – 7:00 PM 🇵🇸 Palestine – 2:00 PM 🇹🇭 Thailand – 6:00 PM 🇹🇷 Turkey – 2:00 PM 🇺🇸 USA (Los Angeles) – 4:00 AM 🇺🇸 USA (New York) – 7:00 AM 🇻🇳 Vietnam – 6:00 PM 🌍 East Africa – 2:00 PM Rise Lyrics 🎵🎤🎶 [Verse 1: Mako] Welcome to the wild, no heroes and villains Welcome to the war we've only begun, so Pick up your weapon and face it There's blood on the crown; go and take it You get one shot to make it out alive, so [Pre-Chorus: Telle Smith & Mako] Higher and higher you chase it It's deep in your bones; go and take it This is your moment, now is your time, so [Chorus: Telle Smith] Prove yourself and Rise, rise Make 'em remember you Rise Push through hell and Rise, rise They will remember you Rise [Verse 2: Mako] Welcome to the climb up, reach for the summit Visions pray that one false step lead the end, so [Pre-Chorus: Telle Smith & Mako] Higher and higher you chase it It's deep in your blood; go and take it This is your moment, take to the skies, go [Chorus: Telle Smith] Prove yourself and Rise, rise Make 'em remember you Rise Push through hell and Rise, rise They will remember you Rise [Bridge: Telle Smith] So get along, so get along, go Get along-long get a move on up So get along, so get along, go Get along-long get a move on up And as you fight among the death beneath the dirt (So get along, so get along, go Get along-long get a move on up) Well, do you know yet? (So get along, so get along, go) Well, do you want it? (Get along-long get a move on up) And when the giants call to ask you what you're worth (So get along, so get along, go Get along-long get a move on up) Do you know if? (So get along, so get along, go) Win or die, you'll (Get along-long—) [Chorus: Telle Smith] Prove yourself and Rise, rise Make 'em remember you Rise Push through hell and Rise, rise They will remember you Rise Prove yourself and Rise, rise (Pick up your weapon and face it) Rise (It's deep in your blood, go and take it) Rise, rise (Higher and higher you chase it) Rise (So get along, so get along, go) Rise, rise Special Acknowledgment A heartfelt thank you to Ms. Diana for creating such an inspiring video! 🌟 Lumari✍️ Chair – GCV International Industry Alliance Chairperson & Exec. Dir. – Global GCV Core Team 🤝 Connecting the World | ⚡ Driving Utility | 🔗 Strengthening Supply Chains Pi Network Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷 JoJo-π NONNY PADJA NTT ❤ Eagle woman 🦅 M.Rad Jason Wong_Pi ONE WORLD DIGITAL CURRENCY Việt Pi & GCV Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt Ruengaroon ภูพานทอง ชัยชมภู Apiwit789 LIEN MARLINA 连玛琳娜 Olivier Ndatimana Cherif A.I Samer Sioury solival Art💜" Global GCV Ambassador 🇫🇷 "💜 RAMESH SHETTY Ali Yanık GCV General seçkin dikici Khader Saleh Osamah Salem Samah Mousa
3:19

🌍 Official Announcement 3rd Global GCV Conference – October 19, 2025 The Global GCV Core Team proudly announces the 3rd Global GCV Conference, taking place on October 19, 2025 at 7:00 PM Philippine Time (PST). 🎯 Theme “Mainnet Readiness: Harnessing the Power of GCV Ambassadors & GCV Industry Alliances” 🔹 GCV Ambassadors provide local leadership, outreach, and education. 🔹 The Industry Alliance fosters real-world commerce and strategic partnerships. United, these forces represent true readiness for Mainnet. 🔗 Join Live on X Space 🎤 Host 🇵🇭 Lumari – Chair, GCV International Industry Alliance & Chairperson and Executive Director, GCV Core Team Ms. Lumari is the Chairperson and Executive Director of the Global GCV Core Team and Chair of the GCV International Industry Alliance. A graduate of two degrees, she manages the GCV Global Movement, driving connections between real businesses worldwide and appointing GCV envoys across the globe, while mentoring Ecosystem Development Ambassadors to build a strong and sustainable GCV ecosystem. She has spearheaded five major global conferences, addressed 25 international events, and trains and guides Education Ambassadors to ensure high-quality, consistent training throughout the ecosystem. 🎤 Co-Hosts 🇻🇳 Mr. Jojo – Vice Chair, International Alliance & Assistant Executive Director Mr. JoJo helps manage the GCV Global Movement alongside Ms. Lumari, connecting pioneers, ambassadors, and businesses worldwide. A seasoned entrepreneur with degrees in Electronics, Automation, and English, and advanced studies in Engineering in the US and Europe, he combines technical knowledge with practical business acumen to drive international growth. He has transformed the GCV movement by translating Ms. Doris Yin’s articles into 40 languages, authoring thousands of community pieces, and writing over 30 GCV songs that inspire and guide leaders globally. 🇨🇮 Mr. Iyanda Cherif Abiola – Head Africa, Publicity Director Mr. Cherif Abiola Iyanda is the Head of Africa for GCV, overseeing 40 countries, and the Head GCV Ambassador for Ivory Coast, while also serving as Publicity Director for the Global GCV Core Team. As CEO of Tactic Groupe SARL and MiraZat, he brings expertise in cryptocurrencies, web entrepreneurship, and international trade, driving innovation and economic growth across the region. Passionate about education and community development, he has led initiatives such as the English Marathon at AIESEC, organized barter events, and represented GCV in television interviews to advance decentralized technologies. 📢 Keynote Speakers & Introductions 🇨🇦 Ms. Doris Yin – Founder GCV Movement Ms. Doris Yin is the Founder of the Global GCV Movement and the author of the Pioneer’s Handbook. She is a Canadian who holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics from Anhui University of Finance and Economics in China, and a Bachelor's degree in Accounting from Concordia University in Canada. She is a former Certified Public Accountant (CPA) in the USA and is currently a USA IRS Certified Enrolled Agent tax professional. 🇨🇳 Mr. Jian Ping Zhen – Chair Envoy, China Mr. Jian Ping Zhen is an accomplished leader in beauty and hairdressing education with extensive expertise in market training and brand development, and since 2019 has spearheaded Pi Network’s ecosystem expansion in Guangdong. As Chairman of the Oriental Purple Lotus Industry Alliance Management Committee, he excels in market strategy, project management, and forging partnerships that strengthen emerging digital ecosystems. He now serves as Industry Alliance GCV China Special Envoy and Chair, guiding the integration of Global Consensus Value within China and fostering cross-border collaboration to accelerate Pi’s global growth. 🇻🇳 Dao Duc Viet – Chair Envoy, Vietnam Dao Duc Viet is the Head GCV Ambassador for Vietnam and General Director of FDAO Technology & Logistics. A pioneer in promoting the Pi Network and the GCV 314159$ movement, he has built a strong foundation in business, technology, logistics, and digital finance. Passionate about financial education, community development, and digital economic innovation, he is committed to building a sustainable and humane GCV ecosystem based on unity, trust, and long-term growth. 🇹🇭 Mr. Apiwit Noknakorn – Vice Chair Envoy, Thailand Mr. Apiwit Noknakorn is a Thai entrepreneur and innovator with a career spanning engineering, large-scale business leadership, and digital finance. With a Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering, he became Manager at one of Thailand’s largest textile companies before leading a network of over ten companies across diverse industries. Today he heads Thailand’s recycling sector as founder of PA Group 1998 Co., Ltd. and owner of Mai Lamon Café, combining online marketing expertise and cryptocurrency trading success to drive strategic growth. 🇵🇭 Mr. Jerwin Mansilla Figueroa – Chair Envoy, Philippines Mr. Jerwin Mansilla Figueroa is a visionary business leader and hospitality innovator with over 15 years of international experience transforming operations into high-performing enterprises across the Philippines and UAE. As Chairman and Founder of Alpha Tours Car Rental and Transport Cooperative, he drives strategic growth, operational excellence, and market expansion while setting new benchmarks for customer service and efficiency. 🇵🇸 Mr. Samer Sioury – Chair Envoy, Arab Region Mr. Sioury is a dynamic real estate entrepreneur with a Bachelor's degree in Financial and Banking Sciences. As owner of Samer Sioury Real Estate Services and partner in a tourist car rental company, he brings hands-on experience in property management, business development, and international client relations. His expertise in managing assets, building partnerships, and navigating cross-border ventures drives industry collaboration and expands the GCV ecosystem throughout the Arab Region. 🇧🇯 Mr. Letenou Fongang Gidrin – Chair Envoy, Benin Mr. Letenou Fongang Gidrin, Head GCV Ambassador from Cameroon, is a multifaceted professional with a background in civil infography, IT, management, culinary arts, and hospitality services. He has served as director of several small enterprises and currently holds the position of Managing Director at MJ Works, a civil engineering firm. Additionally, he serves as Secretary General of Syndaprocac, actively contributing to industry development and regulatory leadership. 🇮🇩 Ms. Nonny Padja – Vice Executive Director, Indonesia Nonny Padja is the Training Director of Global GCV CT, Vice Chair of the Global GCV Core Team Committee, GCV Global Ambassador, and Head of the Indonesia GCV Ambassador. With over 18 years of experience as a midwife in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, she now leads the International Love Hope Branch and manages 20 Telegram and 10 WhatsApp groups to support pioneers. 🇻🇳 Ms. Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt – Education Ambassador, Vietnam Ms. Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt is a dynamic educator with over a decade of experience in Eastern medicine, healthcare training, and digital transformation. As GCV Education Ambassador for Vietnam, she leads mentorship, innovative training, and community-building initiatives that empower members to maximize their potential within the Pi Network and GCV ecosystems. 🇹🇭 Ms. Rung Arun Maneechot – Head GCV Ambassador, Thailand Ms. Rung Arun Maneechot leads a movement of over 40,000 GCV supporters. A graduate of Phetkasem Bangkok School of Management with a Bachelor’s degree in Marketing Business Administration, she is CEO of Makro Flower Business, overseeing operations nationwide while mobilizing pioneers and educating merchants. 🇨🇳 Mr. Shi Long Yu – Head GCV Ambassador, China Mr. Shi Long Yu is a seasoned leader with 24 years in the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force, retired as a regimental-level cadre, and now serves as Head GCV Ambassador in China, GCV Ambassador for Greater China, Executive Director of the GCV Core Team for Greater China, Vice Chairman of the GCV Industry Alliance for Greater China, and Chief GCV Ambassador of Hunan Province. 🇹🇷 Mr. Ali Yanık – Head GCV Ambassador, Turkey Mr. Ali Yanık is a retired Senior Sergeant from the Turkish Armed Forces and holds a degree in Public Administration. Since 2019, he has been an active Pi miner, volunteer instructor, and Head GCV Ambassador for Turkey, mentoring the GCV community nationwide and promoting the vision of a decentralized economy. 🇮🇳 Mr. Raaj Sharma – Head GCV Ambassador, India Mr. Raaj Sharma is a dedicated Pi Pioneer and currently serves as Head GCV Ambassador of India. He is also the National Speaker for the Pi Academy of India and has led numerous barter events across the country. He continues to promote GCV education, mentorship, and community engagement to strengthen adoption and unity in India. 🕓 Local Time Conversion 🇧🇯 Benin – 12:00 PM (noon) 🇨🇦 Canada (Toronto) – 7:00 AM 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast – 11:00 AM 🇨🇳 China – 7:00 PM 🇮🇳 India – 4:30 PM 🇮🇩 Indonesia (Jakarta) – 6:00 PM 🇯🇴 Jordan – 2:00 PM 🇯🇵 Japan – 8:00 PM 🇰🇷 Korea – 8:00 PM 🇵🇭 Philippines – 7:00 PM 🇵🇸 Palestine – 2:00 PM 🇹🇭 Thailand – 6:00 PM 🇹🇷 Turkey – 2:00 PM 🇺🇸 USA (Los Angeles) – 4:00 AM 🇺🇸 USA (New York) – 7:00 AM 🇻🇳 Vietnam – 6:00 PM 🌍 East Africa – 2:00 PM Rise Lyrics 🎵🎤🎶 [Verse 1: Mako] Welcome to the wild, no heroes and villains Welcome to the war we've only begun, so Pick up your weapon and face it There's blood on the crown; go and take it You get one shot to make it out alive, so [Pre-Chorus: Telle Smith & Mako] Higher and higher you chase it It's deep in your bones; go and take it This is your moment, now is your time, so [Chorus: Telle Smith] Prove yourself and Rise, rise Make 'em remember you Rise Push through hell and Rise, rise They will remember you Rise [Verse 2: Mako] Welcome to the climb up, reach for the summit Visions pray that one false step lead the end, so [Pre-Chorus: Telle Smith & Mako] Higher and higher you chase it It's deep in your blood; go and take it This is your moment, take to the skies, go [Chorus: Telle Smith] Prove yourself and Rise, rise Make 'em remember you Rise Push through hell and Rise, rise They will remember you Rise [Bridge: Telle Smith] So get along, so get along, go Get along-long get a move on up So get along, so get along, go Get along-long get a move on up And as you fight among the death beneath the dirt (So get along, so get along, go Get along-long get a move on up) Well, do you know yet? (So get along, so get along, go) Well, do you want it? (Get along-long get a move on up) And when the giants call to ask you what you're worth (So get along, so get along, go Get along-long get a move on up) Do you know if? (So get along, so get along, go) Win or die, you'll (Get along-long—) [Chorus: Telle Smith] Prove yourself and Rise, rise Make 'em remember you Rise Push through hell and Rise, rise They will remember you Rise Prove yourself and Rise, rise (Pick up your weapon and face it) Rise (It's deep in your blood, go and take it) Rise, rise (Higher and higher you chase it) Rise (So get along, so get along, go) Rise, rise Special Acknowledgment A heartfelt thank you to Ms. Diana for creating such an inspiring video! 🌟 Lumari✍️ Chair – GCV International Industry Alliance Chairperson & Exec. Dir. – Global GCV Core Team 🤝 Connecting the World | ⚡ Driving Utility | 🔗 Strengthening Supply Chains Pi Network Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷 JoJo-π NONNY PADJA NTT ❤ Eagle woman 🦅 M.Rad Jason Wong_Pi ONE WORLD DIGITAL CURRENCY Việt Pi & GCV Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt Ruengaroon ภูพานทอง ชัยชมภู Apiwit789 LIEN MARLINA 连玛琳娜 Olivier Ndatimana Cherif A.I Samer Sioury solival Art💜" Global GCV Ambassador 🇫🇷 "💜 RAMESH SHETTY Ali Yanık GCV General seçkin dikici Khader Saleh Osamah Salem Samah Mousa

Lumari 🦋

45,181 次观看 • 11 个月前

In my opinion, Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn) would be the most seamless fit for the Knicks in the 2026 NBA Draft. The Knicks have the 24th & 31st pick and have more than enough access to target Reed Jr on the board. There’s even potential for them to move back from 24, acquire more draft capital and still get Reed Jr. Here’s why I love the fit. From a position of need standpoint, he’s a legitimate plug and play NBA Center who can log 10-15 minutes right away. There’s a possibility that the Knicks lose both Mitchell Robinson and Ariel Hukporti to free agency. Reed Jr. comes from a winning program in UConn played for winning obsessed coach in Dan Hurley played in the Big East, which aligns with the Knicks core mentality. In Matchups vs Lottery prospects in the tournament, there were legitimate times where he was the most productive player on the floor. Reed Jr. is a throwback big, bodies dudes in the paint, good touch around the rim. Nice bag that can only improve. UConn is the farthest thing from a iso offense, but Reed jr, bailed them out time and time again with post touches, a look the Knicks don’t really feature and can open up more diversity in their offense. From a scheme standpoint, the Knicks could actually play some high low concepts with Towns and Reed Jr. In addition, Reed Jr, projects to be a really good rebounder and will end possessions on defense and extend possessions on offense. The main concern for me is his versatility on defense, as it relates to being switchable on the perimeter. Day 1? Won’t be anywhere near what Mitch’s ability on film. Mitch is a guy that blocked Kevin Durant on the perimeter, closed out to the whole Boston Celtics team on one possession in game 6, and got a hand up on Wemby at the end of Game 2 in the NBA Finals. Simply put, if the Knicks lose Mitchell Robinson, they cannot replace him. However, I think Reed jr. will adapt to the needs of the NBA game in his own way, which will make him at least serviceable when playing out of drop coverage. There’s also the reality that Reed jr. isn’t a modern day stretch big that’s going to space the floor. While It’s not an accomplishment, I do think he has some more potential than Robinson/Hukporti to step out in space and knock one down eventually. All in all, these are the reasons Tarris Reed Jr. is a slam dunk pick for the Knicks in the 2026 nba draft - Position of need - Rotation player on a rookie deal - Winning Player - High Motor - Plug and Play From Day 1
10:39

In my opinion, Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn) would be the most seamless fit for the Knicks in the 2026 NBA Draft. The Knicks have the 24th & 31st pick and have more than enough access to target Reed Jr on the board. There’s even potential for them to move back from 24, acquire more draft capital and still get Reed Jr. Here’s why I love the fit. From a position of need standpoint, he’s a legitimate plug and play NBA Center who can log 10-15 minutes right away. There’s a possibility that the Knicks lose both Mitchell Robinson and Ariel Hukporti to free agency. Reed Jr. comes from a winning program in UConn played for winning obsessed coach in Dan Hurley played in the Big East, which aligns with the Knicks core mentality. In Matchups vs Lottery prospects in the tournament, there were legitimate times where he was the most productive player on the floor. Reed Jr. is a throwback big, bodies dudes in the paint, good touch around the rim. Nice bag that can only improve. UConn is the farthest thing from a iso offense, but Reed jr, bailed them out time and time again with post touches, a look the Knicks don’t really feature and can open up more diversity in their offense. From a scheme standpoint, the Knicks could actually play some high low concepts with Towns and Reed Jr. In addition, Reed Jr, projects to be a really good rebounder and will end possessions on defense and extend possessions on offense. The main concern for me is his versatility on defense, as it relates to being switchable on the perimeter. Day 1? Won’t be anywhere near what Mitch’s ability on film. Mitch is a guy that blocked Kevin Durant on the perimeter, closed out to the whole Boston Celtics team on one possession in game 6, and got a hand up on Wemby at the end of Game 2 in the NBA Finals. Simply put, if the Knicks lose Mitchell Robinson, they cannot replace him. However, I think Reed jr. will adapt to the needs of the NBA game in his own way, which will make him at least serviceable when playing out of drop coverage. There’s also the reality that Reed jr. isn’t a modern day stretch big that’s going to space the floor. While It’s not an accomplishment, I do think he has some more potential than Robinson/Hukporti to step out in space and knock one down eventually. All in all, these are the reasons Tarris Reed Jr. is a slam dunk pick for the Knicks in the 2026 nba draft - Position of need - Rotation player on a rookie deal - Winning Player - High Motor - Plug and Play From Day 1

Poppa Left

23,780 次观看 • 2 个月前

The Hoosiers are being criminally SLEPT ON, and it’s time to set the record straight with some cold, hard FACTS. Let’s start with the headline: Indiana landed Fernando Mendoza, arguably the BEST quarterback in the transfer portal. This guy threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns at Cal last year, starting 19 games. Coach Curt Cignetti, who’s turned every QB he’s touched into gold, says Mendoza’s on track to follow the same path as his past stars like Kurtis Rourke (Big Ten’s No. 2 QB in efficiency last year), Todd Centeio (Sun Belt POY), and Jordan McCloud (Sun Belt POY). Mendoza’s got ELITE potential, and with a revamped O-line featuring transfers like Colorado’s Kahlil Benson, Notre Dame’s Pat Coogan, and Ohio State’s Zen Michalski, he’ll have the protection to shine. Then there’s the returning core: FOUR All-Big Ten studs. Cornerback D’Angelo Ponds (9 PBUs), linebacker Aiden Fisher (118 tackles), defensive lineman Mikail Kamara (15 TFLs), and wideout Elijah Sarratt (957 yards, 8 TDs) are back and ready to explode. This isn’t a rebuild—it’s a reload. What's even worse is the hypocrisy in college football. Fans and media are quick to overhype SEC teams like Oklahoma, Florida, and Auburn, despite their coaches—Brent Venables, Billy Napier, and Hugh Freeze—floundering as lame ducks. Oklahoma’s 6-7 last year? Auburn’s 5-7? Florida’s 7-5? Yet they get a pass because of their team's history. Meanwhile, Big Ten coaches like Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell and Michigan State’s Jonathan Smith get deserved criticism for their shaky starts. Why the double standard? Apparently, John Mateer will change Oklahoma, but Fernando Mendoza can't be as good as last year's starter, who played with a torn ACL all year? That's insane. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti just led the Hoosiers to an 11-2 record, a College Football Playoff bid, and a No. 10 AP ranking—their best since 1967—yet people act like it’s a fluke. Wake up! Cignetti’s resume speaks for itself: in 14 years as a head coach, he’s finished outside his conference’s top 3 just TWICE. The man’s a winner, and Indiana’s backing him like never before. A $72M contract over eight years, an $11M staff salary pool (top 5 nationally) that kept away schools like Penn State, Ohio State, and USC, who came calling for their top assistants, and a fan base buzzing with belief after decades of being a basketball school. Indiana is Fast. Physical. Relentless. Smart. Discipline. Poised. That’s the kind of culture Cignetti’s built. Sure, the schedule’s tougher this year—road trips to Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, plus Illinois at home early—but Indiana’s ready. They’ve addressed last year’s weakness (a 13% sack rate against elite teams like Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame) with those O-line upgrades. Mendoza’s mobility will add a new dimension, unlike Rourke, who played on a torn ACL. And with coordinators Bryant Haines ($2M deal) and Mike Shanahan locked in, this program’s built for the long haul. College football fans need to stop clinging to brand names and start respecting Indiana for what they are: a program on the rise, with a proven coach, a star QB, and a roster ready to compete with anyone. The Hoosiers aren’t a one-hit wonder—they’re here to stay. 🏆 #GoogleMe #Hoosiers #BigTen #CFB
0:38

The Hoosiers are being criminally SLEPT ON, and it’s time to set the record straight with some cold, hard FACTS. Let’s start with the headline: Indiana landed Fernando Mendoza, arguably the BEST quarterback in the transfer portal. This guy threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns at Cal last year, starting 19 games. Coach Curt Cignetti, who’s turned every QB he’s touched into gold, says Mendoza’s on track to follow the same path as his past stars like Kurtis Rourke (Big Ten’s No. 2 QB in efficiency last year), Todd Centeio (Sun Belt POY), and Jordan McCloud (Sun Belt POY). Mendoza’s got ELITE potential, and with a revamped O-line featuring transfers like Colorado’s Kahlil Benson, Notre Dame’s Pat Coogan, and Ohio State’s Zen Michalski, he’ll have the protection to shine. Then there’s the returning core: FOUR All-Big Ten studs. Cornerback D’Angelo Ponds (9 PBUs), linebacker Aiden Fisher (118 tackles), defensive lineman Mikail Kamara (15 TFLs), and wideout Elijah Sarratt (957 yards, 8 TDs) are back and ready to explode. This isn’t a rebuild—it’s a reload. What's even worse is the hypocrisy in college football. Fans and media are quick to overhype SEC teams like Oklahoma, Florida, and Auburn, despite their coaches—Brent Venables, Billy Napier, and Hugh Freeze—floundering as lame ducks. Oklahoma’s 6-7 last year? Auburn’s 5-7? Florida’s 7-5? Yet they get a pass because of their team's history. Meanwhile, Big Ten coaches like Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell and Michigan State’s Jonathan Smith get deserved criticism for their shaky starts. Why the double standard? Apparently, John Mateer will change Oklahoma, but Fernando Mendoza can't be as good as last year's starter, who played with a torn ACL all year? That's insane. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti just led the Hoosiers to an 11-2 record, a College Football Playoff bid, and a No. 10 AP ranking—their best since 1967—yet people act like it’s a fluke. Wake up! Cignetti’s resume speaks for itself: in 14 years as a head coach, he’s finished outside his conference’s top 3 just TWICE. The man’s a winner, and Indiana’s backing him like never before. A $72M contract over eight years, an $11M staff salary pool (top 5 nationally) that kept away schools like Penn State, Ohio State, and USC, who came calling for their top assistants, and a fan base buzzing with belief after decades of being a basketball school. Indiana is Fast. Physical. Relentless. Smart. Discipline. Poised. That’s the kind of culture Cignetti’s built. Sure, the schedule’s tougher this year—road trips to Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, plus Illinois at home early—but Indiana’s ready. They’ve addressed last year’s weakness (a 13% sack rate against elite teams like Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame) with those O-line upgrades. Mendoza’s mobility will add a new dimension, unlike Rourke, who played on a torn ACL. And with coordinators Bryant Haines ($2M deal) and Mike Shanahan locked in, this program’s built for the long haul. College football fans need to stop clinging to brand names and start respecting Indiana for what they are: a program on the rise, with a proven coach, a star QB, and a roster ready to compete with anyone. The Hoosiers aren’t a one-hit wonder—they’re here to stay. 🏆 #GoogleMe #Hoosiers #BigTen #CFB

The Big Ten Huddle 🎙️

112,500 次观看 • 1 年前

14-minute course record at the Quad Rock 50 Mile, “no secrets” style: -150 grams of carbs per hour. I took a SiS Beta Fuel gel at :20 and :40, followed by an Enervit caffeine gel at 1:00. High carb has revolutionized all endurance sports. I think that the Western States podium will require breaking 14:05, and everyone who has a shot at it will be slurping carb totals that would have been unthinkable 5 years ago -600 mg caffeine. I become a good technical runner when I have enough caffeine to launch a rhino to space -1 liter of fluid per hour, with 1 Precision 1000 tab and 3/4 scoop of Skratch per 0.5 liter bottle, totaling 30 g of carbs and 1500 mg sodium each hour. I am cursed with an astronomical sweat rate, and dialing in my needs with testing has unlocked the endurance of this cramp boy. The hydration revolution and the fueling revolution are intertwined -Bicarb 12. Pre-race sodium bicarbonate serving at 3:45 AM before 5:30 AM start. 5 years from now, the science will catch up to the practice of bicarb driving ultra-distance performances too -100% heat adapted. I think my biggest change this year has been using the Core 2 heat sensor. Even though it was hot, I was cold all day and I never experienced any heat stress. High carb now has full adoption. I am hoping I can be one year ahead of the game with heat (and I realize that by saying this, I am losing some of my advantage. But that’s the point of “no secrets” 🙏) -145 average heart rate for 7:06. That’s in the middle of my Z2, the same way I’ll race 100 milers. Arm band HR is a tech breakthrough -1 sore knee post-race. Scared money don’t make money, but I need to be safe now. I will be ready if I’m healthy and happy -20,000 “I love you” and “You’re amazing” cheers. It’s so special to be in this community and to share this silly sport with everyone 🧡 -6 weeks, 6 days. The amount of time until the Western States moonshot 🚀 Real talk: I’m a coach, and this whole year feels like a lucky mistake. Anything I do as an athlete will be dust in the wind. I just hope to help give the next generation of athletes the tools to put anything I do to shame. Here’s to exploring the limits, together 🙏
0:23

14-minute course record at the Quad Rock 50 Mile, “no secrets” style: -150 grams of carbs per hour. I took a SiS Beta Fuel gel at :20 and :40, followed by an Enervit caffeine gel at 1:00. High carb has revolutionized all endurance sports. I think that the Western States podium will require breaking 14:05, and everyone who has a shot at it will be slurping carb totals that would have been unthinkable 5 years ago -600 mg caffeine. I become a good technical runner when I have enough caffeine to launch a rhino to space -1 liter of fluid per hour, with 1 Precision 1000 tab and 3/4 scoop of Skratch per 0.5 liter bottle, totaling 30 g of carbs and 1500 mg sodium each hour. I am cursed with an astronomical sweat rate, and dialing in my needs with testing has unlocked the endurance of this cramp boy. The hydration revolution and the fueling revolution are intertwined -Bicarb 12. Pre-race sodium bicarbonate serving at 3:45 AM before 5:30 AM start. 5 years from now, the science will catch up to the practice of bicarb driving ultra-distance performances too -100% heat adapted. I think my biggest change this year has been using the Core 2 heat sensor. Even though it was hot, I was cold all day and I never experienced any heat stress. High carb now has full adoption. I am hoping I can be one year ahead of the game with heat (and I realize that by saying this, I am losing some of my advantage. But that’s the point of “no secrets” 🙏) -145 average heart rate for 7:06. That’s in the middle of my Z2, the same way I’ll race 100 milers. Arm band HR is a tech breakthrough -1 sore knee post-race. Scared money don’t make money, but I need to be safe now. I will be ready if I’m healthy and happy -20,000 “I love you” and “You’re amazing” cheers. It’s so special to be in this community and to share this silly sport with everyone 🧡 -6 weeks, 6 days. The amount of time until the Western States moonshot 🚀 Real talk: I’m a coach, and this whole year feels like a lucky mistake. Anything I do as an athlete will be dust in the wind. I just hope to help give the next generation of athletes the tools to put anything I do to shame. Here’s to exploring the limits, together 🙏

David Roche

82,029 次观看 • 1 年前

$AMD| The FOMO to buy AMD Chips is NOW 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Research Purpose Only! The Inference Queen is the biggest winner in Agentic AI where all other CPUs are struggling to compete with a 2yr old EPYC Turin and EPYC Venice is in mass production phase. AMD stresses deployability today on standard x86 platforms (no proprietary architectures required), full software compatibility, and open standards. This positions Venice + Helios as a practical, high-density alternative to competing solutions while underscoring that agentic AI shifts the balance toward CPU-rich racks alongside GPUs, and most importantly, lowering the cost of token to accelerate adoption and innovation. Context: The Wall Street Journal yesterday came out with an article that OpenAI is condiering drasstically lowering the token prices to win more customers from Anthropic. The narrative "they" are trying to exacerbate the current AI selloff won't last long. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what is going on, or what I already discussed for months and years. Followers and Subscribers already knew this for years, that this day would come, where token cost will bcome the central discussion among enterprises as there is no such thing as unlimited budget or Tokenmaxxing when they use $NVDA chips or In-house Hyperscalers chips. I will link various threads if you are interested in understanding the full picture from supply chain to recent TSMC Rapid 2nm expansion up to 12 Fabs total by 2027/2028. Hyperscalers and AI natives effectively have no choice but to buy more AMD system for Agentic AI as leadership in economical, power-aware, high-volume internal + agentic use. However, due to supply constraints where Supply is far behind Demand, this makes multi-vendor reality along with in-house chips drive faster industry progress, lower overall costs, and better sustainability. NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin cannot compete with a 2 years old EPYC Turin, but AMD under Dr. Lisa Su has engineered the lowest cost-per-million-tokens, highly competitive energy-efficient solutions, and superior CPU orchestration for agentic AI at scale with Helios. Dr. Su has championed this shift since at least 2023, foreseeing the rise of agentic workflows that demand far more orchestration, parallel agents, and balanced compute well before the industry fully embraced it. Her long-term vision of AI moving from simple prompts to always on, multi-agent systems has driven AMD’s investments in high-core EPYC CPUs and integrated rack-scale solutions, perfectly positioning the company for today’s realities. The OpenAI-AMD 1GW Helios deployment (starting H2 2026) represents a pivotal vertical integration move that directly supercharges the inference economics. This isn't incremental; it's a structural shift toward ownership of massive, optimized rack-scale capacity, enabling the lowest token costs and triggering the enterprise adoption flywheel. We need to be honest, $AMD is the only company that made a big bet on Inference since the day Chatgpt became sensational where $NVDA and others were betting big on Training. At the end of the day, Token bill from Anthropic has to obey economics. Meaning the bills rise, companies have to get more out of it to justify the cost. It cannot be an unlimited inference budget, and it has to show up on efficiency, profitability and operating leverage. 1. Tokenomics After you understand this, you will understand why Citi cited Anthropic is likely to sign a deal with $AMD along with Hyperscalers, AI Labs, Sovereign AI like Softbank 5GW in France and many other countries. However, OpenAI and $META are now wanting faster deployment, and they are AMD shareholders now, they have prioritized allocation. Anthropic and Hyperscalers just cannot compete when Helios Rack lower token cost to$0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens at GW scale. Cost to build 1GW data center 1GW Helios Rack full build is estimated $30-$35B 1GW Rubin Rack full build is estimated $45-$55B Inference (Cost per Million Tokens) ~$NVDA B200 / HGX: ~$0.02–$0.08 on optimized workloads (FP4/MXFP4, speculative decoding). Significant improvement over Hopper but still premium-priced. GB200 NVL72 rack-scale: $0.05–$0.25+ ~$AMD Helios Racks: $0.0003-$0.0005 per M tokens, dramatically lower than NVIDIA equivalents in owned infra. MI355X node-level: Up to 40% more tokens per dollar vs. competing solutions ( B200), driven by higher memory capacity (up to 288GB+ HBM), strong bandwidth, and lower acquisition costs. Training ~$NVDA Rubin Rack is estimated $0.7-$1.2/M Tokens ~$AMD Helios Rack is estimated $0.65-$1.0/M Tokens Now, OpenAI, META and Hyperscalers can lower Inference cost even further with $AMD EPYC Venice "dense rack" or Agentic AI Rack. AMD published a detailed technical blog emphasizing that the future of agentic AI autonomous, multi-step AI systems requiring heavy orchestration, databases, caching, APIs, and control planes demands massive CPU-dense rack-scale infrastructure, not just GPUs. The catalyst prominently positions their upcoming 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors as the key enabler for next-generation dense racks, delivering leadership throughput under real-world power, cooling, and density constraints. ~EPYC Venice (Zen 6 architecture, up to 256 cores / 512 threads per socket) is projected to deliver exceptional rack-level performance. In AMD’s modeled 100 kW rack comparisons, Venice-powered systems are expected to achieve ~3.30x the throughput of NVIDIA’s Vera (88-core Olympus) baseline across a broad mix of agentic-supporting workloads. ~This builds on current-generation 5th Gen EPYC "Turin" (up to 192 cores), which already delivers ~2.37x rack throughput vs. Vera and ~1.6x vs. Intel’s Xeon 6980P (128 cores). ~ Liquid-cooled Turin deployments already support >27,000 CPU cores per rack today. Venice is architected to push this beyond 36,000 cores in the same rack class, dramatically increasing concurrent agent capacity and overall infrastructure efficiency. 2. Ownership vs renting compute from Hyperscalers matter to OpenAI and only owning $AMD chips can meaningfully lower token cost for enterprises. ~Eliminates cloud overhead: No provider margins, utilization buffers, or egress fees. Direct control over power contracts, cooling, scheduling, and orchestration at dedicated facilities. ~Helios optimizations at GW scale: Rack-level density (1.4+ exaFLOPS FP8 per rack), high HBM4 bandwidth, EPYC orchestration for agentic workloads, and superior TCO/TDP. AMD's long-standing focus on tokens per dollar/watt shines here 20-40%+ efficiency edges in inference-heavy scenarios. ~At 1GW+ optimized deployment, inference hits $0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens (community/analyst models tied to Helios metrics). This is dramatically lower than typical rented/cloud equivalents, especially for high-volume output tokens in agentic flows. High token bills today, enterprises running heavy agentic/coding/analysis workloads can face $50-100M+/month at current API rates (flagship models $5-30+/M output, scaled to massive volumes). Post-Helios compression, same volume will drop to $10-15M/month (or better) via lower underlying costs passed through as pricing flexibility, volume tiers, caching, or batch discounts. ROI thresholds collapse. More companies greenlight pilots → production → massive scaling. Agentic AI (autonomous workflows) multiplies token demand exponentially, but affordability removes the friction. OpenAI gains flexibility, Unlike more cloud-dependent rivals (Anthropic), they can lower effective pricing, offer aggressive enterprise bundles, or absorb volume without margin destruction directly tackling "high token bill" complaints while maintaining profitability as usage explodes. 3. Agentic AI Models shifted CPU:GPU Ratio to 1:1 toward 3-5:1 with Explosively Token-Hungry Workloads Agentic AI (autonomous, multi-step agents with planning, tool use, iteration, and self-correction) is fundamentally more compute and token intensive than conversational or single-turn generative AI. Agentic AI. autonomous, multi-step workflows with orchestration, tool use, parallel agents, data movement, and enterprise integration has dramatically increased the importance of strong host CPUs alongside GPUs. This shifts the CPU-to-GPU ratio higher and makes balanced systems critical toward 1:1 to 5:1 as enterprises testing more than 5-10 agents. AMD EPYC Venice excels ~Leadership core density (up to 256 Zen 6 cores per socket) for running many agents in parallel, orchestration layers, and high-throughput control-plane tasks. ~Superior performance-per-core and power efficiency ( up to 2.1x higher perf/core and 2.26x better SPECpower vs. NVIDIA Grace in benchmarks). ~Tight integration in Helios: One Venice CPU + multiple MI450 GPUs per node, enabling efficient data feeding to GPUs ("zero-copy"), parallel execution, and full rack utilization for complex agentic loops. Hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Softbank) and AI natives (OpenAI, Anthropic...) are adopting high-core EPYC at scale specifically for these agentic demands, as CPUs now handle a larger share of non-model work (orchestration, policy enforcement, tool calls). This complements AMD’s lower-cost GPUs for overall TCO wins. ~Agents often generate 10–100x+ more tokens per task due to iterative reasoning chains, multiple tool calls, verification loops, and long-context orchestration. ~Goldman Sachs forecasts token consumption multiplying 24x by 2030 (to 120 quadrillion tokens/month) largely driven by agentic adoption in consumer and enterprise. ~Enterprise data shows agent-pattern workloads growing at 680% annualized rates, projected to surpass conversational AI in token volume by Q3 2026. ~Daily enterprise agent token consumption is already in the billions, with complex workflows (coding, workflows, analysis) amplifying this dramatically. 4. Competitive Edge: Winning Customers from Anthropic Anthropic’s Claude models (especially Opus/Sonnet) excel in complex reasoning and agentic coding, commanding premium positioning. However, their higher underlying costs (heavier reliance on third-party cloud with margins) limit pricing flexibility compared to OpenAI’s owned Helios capacity. Anthropic is on track to generate $10.9 billion in Q2 revenue. The company expects to achieve its first-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit of $559 million. However, sustaining full-year profitability remains challenging due to immense computing and model training costs The truth is, Anthropic has no choice but to buy as much $AMD chips as possible if they want to compete with OpenAI or get investors attention. This 5% adjusted operating profit to revenue ratio is just pathetic. Current pricing dynamics (2026): OpenAI already undercuts on many tiers ( flagship output tokens significantly cheaper than equivalent Claude Opus). Nano/mini models offer 5–10x advantages for volume work. Anthropic holds edges in long-context flat pricing and certain reasoning quality. OpenAI after Helios Rack Ownership, At $0.0003–$0.0005/M effective costs, OpenAI gains massive headroom to: ~Aggressively discount high-volume agentic tiers or bundles. ~Offer “unlimited” enterprise plans or usage-based models that Anthropic struggles to match without margin erosion. ~Target cost-sensitive, high-throughput agent deployments (dev tools, automation platforms) where token bills explode. Enterprises facing $ millions in monthly agentic bills will migrate to the provider delivering better economics at scale. OpenAI’s combination of strong models (o-series reasoning) + lowest TCO positions it to erode Anthropic’s enterprise share, especially as agentic becomes the dominant token consumer. Cheaper tokens expand the total addressable market dramatically. This feeds the data/model improvement loop, justifying further capex. AMD benefits from proven scale pulling in more customers (Meta, Oracle, Microsfot, Amazon, Softbank, TensorWave, LumaAI ... already aligned on Helios). Conclusion: Dr. Lisa Su has been laser focused on inference economics since at least 2022–2023, repeatedly emphasizing that the real battleground for AI scalability would be TCO, power efficiency (TDP), and ultimately tokens per dollar and per watt not just raw training FLOPS. While many viewed inference as a secondary, commoditized workload, Dr. Su architected AMD’s roadmap around rack-scale systems optimized for high-volume, sustained inference that would dominate as models matured and usage exploded. Helios represents the culmination of that multi-year bet: a fully integrated, open platform designed precisely for the economics of massive token throughput. This deep, strategic partnership with OpenAI starting with the 1GW Helios deployment in H2 2026 and scaling to 6GW, is the embodiment of that shared vision. Both companies foresaw a future where agentic AI models evolve to become extraordinarily token-hungry: autonomous agents executing complex, iterative workflows with planning, tool use, verification loops, and long-context reasoning. These workloads can consume 100x+ more tokens per task than traditional chat or single-turn generation, driving exponential demand as capabilities improve and enterprises deploy them at scale. By owning and optimizing this massive Helios capacity at GW scale, OpenAI achieves inference costs as low as $0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens. This structural cost advantage allows OpenAI to absorb the coming token explosion profitably, dramatically lower effective pricing for enterprises, and win high-volume agentic workloads from higher-cost competitors like Anthropic. What was once a prohibitive monthly token bill becomes an affordable accelerator for productivity and innovation. The OpenAI-AMD alliance validates Dr. Su’s prescient strategy and turns the Agentic flywheel into reality: Collapsing inference costs → explosive token consumption → richer data and better models → accelerate greater demand. This partnership doesn’t just address today’s economics, it positions both leaders at the center of the infrastructure buildout that will power AI’s next decade. By delivering the lowest inference economics at scale, OpenAI not only solves enterprise bill pain but gains a decisive weapon to win share from higher-cost rivals like Anthropic. And that is why OpenAI and $META will deploy EPYC Dense Rack Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Research Purpose Only!
4:46

$AMD| The FOMO to buy AMD Chips is NOW 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Research Purpose Only! The Inference Queen is the biggest winner in Agentic AI where all other CPUs are struggling to compete with a 2yr old EPYC Turin and EPYC Venice is in mass production phase. AMD stresses deployability today on standard x86 platforms (no proprietary architectures required), full software compatibility, and open standards. This positions Venice + Helios as a practical, high-density alternative to competing solutions while underscoring that agentic AI shifts the balance toward CPU-rich racks alongside GPUs, and most importantly, lowering the cost of token to accelerate adoption and innovation. Context: The Wall Street Journal yesterday came out with an article that OpenAI is condiering drasstically lowering the token prices to win more customers from Anthropic. The narrative "they" are trying to exacerbate the current AI selloff won't last long. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what is going on, or what I already discussed for months and years. Followers and Subscribers already knew this for years, that this day would come, where token cost will bcome the central discussion among enterprises as there is no such thing as unlimited budget or Tokenmaxxing when they use $NVDA chips or In-house Hyperscalers chips. I will link various threads if you are interested in understanding the full picture from supply chain to recent TSMC Rapid 2nm expansion up to 12 Fabs total by 2027/2028. Hyperscalers and AI natives effectively have no choice but to buy more AMD system for Agentic AI as leadership in economical, power-aware, high-volume internal + agentic use. However, due to supply constraints where Supply is far behind Demand, this makes multi-vendor reality along with in-house chips drive faster industry progress, lower overall costs, and better sustainability. NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin cannot compete with a 2 years old EPYC Turin, but AMD under Dr. Lisa Su has engineered the lowest cost-per-million-tokens, highly competitive energy-efficient solutions, and superior CPU orchestration for agentic AI at scale with Helios. Dr. Su has championed this shift since at least 2023, foreseeing the rise of agentic workflows that demand far more orchestration, parallel agents, and balanced compute well before the industry fully embraced it. Her long-term vision of AI moving from simple prompts to always on, multi-agent systems has driven AMD’s investments in high-core EPYC CPUs and integrated rack-scale solutions, perfectly positioning the company for today’s realities. The OpenAI-AMD 1GW Helios deployment (starting H2 2026) represents a pivotal vertical integration move that directly supercharges the inference economics. This isn't incremental; it's a structural shift toward ownership of massive, optimized rack-scale capacity, enabling the lowest token costs and triggering the enterprise adoption flywheel. We need to be honest, $AMD is the only company that made a big bet on Inference since the day Chatgpt became sensational where $NVDA and others were betting big on Training. At the end of the day, Token bill from Anthropic has to obey economics. Meaning the bills rise, companies have to get more out of it to justify the cost. It cannot be an unlimited inference budget, and it has to show up on efficiency, profitability and operating leverage. 1. Tokenomics After you understand this, you will understand why Citi cited Anthropic is likely to sign a deal with $AMD along with Hyperscalers, AI Labs, Sovereign AI like Softbank 5GW in France and many other countries. However, OpenAI and $META are now wanting faster deployment, and they are AMD shareholders now, they have prioritized allocation. Anthropic and Hyperscalers just cannot compete when Helios Rack lower token cost to$0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens at GW scale. Cost to build 1GW data center 1GW Helios Rack full build is estimated $30-$35B 1GW Rubin Rack full build is estimated $45-$55B Inference (Cost per Million Tokens) ~$NVDA B200 / HGX: ~$0.02–$0.08 on optimized workloads (FP4/MXFP4, speculative decoding). Significant improvement over Hopper but still premium-priced. GB200 NVL72 rack-scale: $0.05–$0.25+ ~$AMD Helios Racks: $0.0003-$0.0005 per M tokens, dramatically lower than NVIDIA equivalents in owned infra. MI355X node-level: Up to 40% more tokens per dollar vs. competing solutions ( B200), driven by higher memory capacity (up to 288GB+ HBM), strong bandwidth, and lower acquisition costs. Training ~$NVDA Rubin Rack is estimated $0.7-$1.2/M Tokens ~$AMD Helios Rack is estimated $0.65-$1.0/M Tokens Now, OpenAI, META and Hyperscalers can lower Inference cost even further with $AMD EPYC Venice "dense rack" or Agentic AI Rack. AMD published a detailed technical blog emphasizing that the future of agentic AI autonomous, multi-step AI systems requiring heavy orchestration, databases, caching, APIs, and control planes demands massive CPU-dense rack-scale infrastructure, not just GPUs. The catalyst prominently positions their upcoming 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors as the key enabler for next-generation dense racks, delivering leadership throughput under real-world power, cooling, and density constraints. ~EPYC Venice (Zen 6 architecture, up to 256 cores / 512 threads per socket) is projected to deliver exceptional rack-level performance. In AMD’s modeled 100 kW rack comparisons, Venice-powered systems are expected to achieve ~3.30x the throughput of NVIDIA’s Vera (88-core Olympus) baseline across a broad mix of agentic-supporting workloads. ~This builds on current-generation 5th Gen EPYC "Turin" (up to 192 cores), which already delivers ~2.37x rack throughput vs. Vera and ~1.6x vs. Intel’s Xeon 6980P (128 cores). ~ Liquid-cooled Turin deployments already support >27,000 CPU cores per rack today. Venice is architected to push this beyond 36,000 cores in the same rack class, dramatically increasing concurrent agent capacity and overall infrastructure efficiency. 2. Ownership vs renting compute from Hyperscalers matter to OpenAI and only owning $AMD chips can meaningfully lower token cost for enterprises. ~Eliminates cloud overhead: No provider margins, utilization buffers, or egress fees. Direct control over power contracts, cooling, scheduling, and orchestration at dedicated facilities. ~Helios optimizations at GW scale: Rack-level density (1.4+ exaFLOPS FP8 per rack), high HBM4 bandwidth, EPYC orchestration for agentic workloads, and superior TCO/TDP. AMD's long-standing focus on tokens per dollar/watt shines here 20-40%+ efficiency edges in inference-heavy scenarios. ~At 1GW+ optimized deployment, inference hits $0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens (community/analyst models tied to Helios metrics). This is dramatically lower than typical rented/cloud equivalents, especially for high-volume output tokens in agentic flows. High token bills today, enterprises running heavy agentic/coding/analysis workloads can face $50-100M+/month at current API rates (flagship models $5-30+/M output, scaled to massive volumes). Post-Helios compression, same volume will drop to $10-15M/month (or better) via lower underlying costs passed through as pricing flexibility, volume tiers, caching, or batch discounts. ROI thresholds collapse. More companies greenlight pilots → production → massive scaling. Agentic AI (autonomous workflows) multiplies token demand exponentially, but affordability removes the friction. OpenAI gains flexibility, Unlike more cloud-dependent rivals (Anthropic), they can lower effective pricing, offer aggressive enterprise bundles, or absorb volume without margin destruction directly tackling "high token bill" complaints while maintaining profitability as usage explodes. 3. Agentic AI Models shifted CPU:GPU Ratio to 1:1 toward 3-5:1 with Explosively Token-Hungry Workloads Agentic AI (autonomous, multi-step agents with planning, tool use, iteration, and self-correction) is fundamentally more compute and token intensive than conversational or single-turn generative AI. Agentic AI. autonomous, multi-step workflows with orchestration, tool use, parallel agents, data movement, and enterprise integration has dramatically increased the importance of strong host CPUs alongside GPUs. This shifts the CPU-to-GPU ratio higher and makes balanced systems critical toward 1:1 to 5:1 as enterprises testing more than 5-10 agents. AMD EPYC Venice excels ~Leadership core density (up to 256 Zen 6 cores per socket) for running many agents in parallel, orchestration layers, and high-throughput control-plane tasks. ~Superior performance-per-core and power efficiency ( up to 2.1x higher perf/core and 2.26x better SPECpower vs. NVIDIA Grace in benchmarks). ~Tight integration in Helios: One Venice CPU + multiple MI450 GPUs per node, enabling efficient data feeding to GPUs ("zero-copy"), parallel execution, and full rack utilization for complex agentic loops. Hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Softbank) and AI natives (OpenAI, Anthropic...) are adopting high-core EPYC at scale specifically for these agentic demands, as CPUs now handle a larger share of non-model work (orchestration, policy enforcement, tool calls). This complements AMD’s lower-cost GPUs for overall TCO wins. ~Agents often generate 10–100x+ more tokens per task due to iterative reasoning chains, multiple tool calls, verification loops, and long-context orchestration. ~Goldman Sachs forecasts token consumption multiplying 24x by 2030 (to 120 quadrillion tokens/month) largely driven by agentic adoption in consumer and enterprise. ~Enterprise data shows agent-pattern workloads growing at 680% annualized rates, projected to surpass conversational AI in token volume by Q3 2026. ~Daily enterprise agent token consumption is already in the billions, with complex workflows (coding, workflows, analysis) amplifying this dramatically. 4. Competitive Edge: Winning Customers from Anthropic Anthropic’s Claude models (especially Opus/Sonnet) excel in complex reasoning and agentic coding, commanding premium positioning. However, their higher underlying costs (heavier reliance on third-party cloud with margins) limit pricing flexibility compared to OpenAI’s owned Helios capacity. Anthropic is on track to generate $10.9 billion in Q2 revenue. The company expects to achieve its first-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit of $559 million. However, sustaining full-year profitability remains challenging due to immense computing and model training costs The truth is, Anthropic has no choice but to buy as much $AMD chips as possible if they want to compete with OpenAI or get investors attention. This 5% adjusted operating profit to revenue ratio is just pathetic. Current pricing dynamics (2026): OpenAI already undercuts on many tiers ( flagship output tokens significantly cheaper than equivalent Claude Opus). Nano/mini models offer 5–10x advantages for volume work. Anthropic holds edges in long-context flat pricing and certain reasoning quality. OpenAI after Helios Rack Ownership, At $0.0003–$0.0005/M effective costs, OpenAI gains massive headroom to: ~Aggressively discount high-volume agentic tiers or bundles. ~Offer “unlimited” enterprise plans or usage-based models that Anthropic struggles to match without margin erosion. ~Target cost-sensitive, high-throughput agent deployments (dev tools, automation platforms) where token bills explode. Enterprises facing $ millions in monthly agentic bills will migrate to the provider delivering better economics at scale. OpenAI’s combination of strong models (o-series reasoning) + lowest TCO positions it to erode Anthropic’s enterprise share, especially as agentic becomes the dominant token consumer. Cheaper tokens expand the total addressable market dramatically. This feeds the data/model improvement loop, justifying further capex. AMD benefits from proven scale pulling in more customers (Meta, Oracle, Microsfot, Amazon, Softbank, TensorWave, LumaAI ... already aligned on Helios). Conclusion: Dr. Lisa Su has been laser focused on inference economics since at least 2022–2023, repeatedly emphasizing that the real battleground for AI scalability would be TCO, power efficiency (TDP), and ultimately tokens per dollar and per watt not just raw training FLOPS. While many viewed inference as a secondary, commoditized workload, Dr. Su architected AMD’s roadmap around rack-scale systems optimized for high-volume, sustained inference that would dominate as models matured and usage exploded. Helios represents the culmination of that multi-year bet: a fully integrated, open platform designed precisely for the economics of massive token throughput. This deep, strategic partnership with OpenAI starting with the 1GW Helios deployment in H2 2026 and scaling to 6GW, is the embodiment of that shared vision. Both companies foresaw a future where agentic AI models evolve to become extraordinarily token-hungry: autonomous agents executing complex, iterative workflows with planning, tool use, verification loops, and long-context reasoning. These workloads can consume 100x+ more tokens per task than traditional chat or single-turn generation, driving exponential demand as capabilities improve and enterprises deploy them at scale. By owning and optimizing this massive Helios capacity at GW scale, OpenAI achieves inference costs as low as $0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens. This structural cost advantage allows OpenAI to absorb the coming token explosion profitably, dramatically lower effective pricing for enterprises, and win high-volume agentic workloads from higher-cost competitors like Anthropic. What was once a prohibitive monthly token bill becomes an affordable accelerator for productivity and innovation. The OpenAI-AMD alliance validates Dr. Su’s prescient strategy and turns the Agentic flywheel into reality: Collapsing inference costs → explosive token consumption → richer data and better models → accelerate greater demand. This partnership doesn’t just address today’s economics, it positions both leaders at the center of the infrastructure buildout that will power AI’s next decade. By delivering the lowest inference economics at scale, OpenAI not only solves enterprise bill pain but gains a decisive weapon to win share from higher-cost rivals like Anthropic. And that is why OpenAI and $META will deploy EPYC Dense Rack Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Research Purpose Only!

Mike

84,951 次观看 • 2 个月前

//The Wire//2300Z June 9, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ATTEMPTED BEHEADING REPORTED IN IRELAND, RIOTS UNDERWAY. U.S. ARMY HELICOPTER SHOT DOWN IN GULF OF OMAN. KARMELO ANTHONY FOUND GUILTY OF MURDER.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight one U.S. Army AH-64 helicopter crashed feet-wet off the coast of Oman. Both the pilot and the co-pilot/gunner managed to egress from the aircraft, and were rescued two hours after the crash. At the time of the crash, CENTCOM did not disclose the reason for the incident, however this afternoon President Trump confirmed that this aircraft was shot down by Iranian forces. Analyst Comment: Two hours in the water is a long time in terms of Combat Search and Rescue, and it's a miracle that they were rescued. Of note, some sources are claiming that the rescue method for the downed aviators took the form of an unusual source...an American Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV). If this is true (which we may never know), this would be the first instance of an American drone boat being used for rescue operations in a combat zone. Northern Ireland: Yesterday evening an extremely graphic beheading attempt was reported on a residential street in Belfast. One Sudanese national attacked a local, gouging out his eyes with a knife and attempting to behead him. The exceptionally brutal attack was captured on tape, and the video circulated widely in the moments after the attack. The status of the victim remains unclear, but he is receiving medical care for his many wounds. The victim has not been identified by name, however he's reportedly from Scotland and also hard-of-hearing, leaving him more vulnerable to the attack. Analyst Comment: The attacker was initially hospitalized at The Mater, the main hospital in Belfast. It is unclear as to if the attacker is still physically located at this site, but he was spotted in the hospital by local intelligence networks as he was being given a medical exam post-incident. The suspect is most likely being held at the Musgrave Custody Suite on Victoria Street, which is one of the more protected sites in Belfast and can hold high-security detainees. Despite the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) not charging this individual under terrorism charges, there's a very high likelihood that the attacker would not survive the first night once other detainees found out what he did. The assailant was granted asylum status as a refugee a few years ago, though the exact nature of this legal status is not entirely clear. -HomeFront- Texas: This afternoon Karmello Anthony was found guilty of the murder Austin Metcalf. So far limited protest activity has been observed outside the courthouse. Analyst Comment: No big mobilizations or riots have been observed yet, however more significant efforts might take some time to organize as it's only a Tuesday. Too soon to tell if this is going to become a hot state of unrest, but seeing as tension has been building on this for a while, it could go either way. The next big decision point will be sentencing, which will be decided soon by the same jury. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As one might expect, the situation in Northern Ireland has reached a boiling point. Mass riots are already underway as of this report (and likely planned for the next few weeks), as the Irish begin to organize and mobilize. Tonight, local paramilitary groups have requested all residents of Belfast to turn off their doorbell cameras, and PSNI checkpoints are already established around the city preparing for the events of the next few days. Concerning the site of the mutilation, the location of the attempted beheading has been host to violence before. This exact apartment building has been the site of violent murders in the past. In 2019, two bodies were found brutally murdered inside Kinnaird Close, with the trial for the murderer concluding a couple of years ago. Of note, the attack yesterday evening was halted by Irishmen who intervened to attempt to stop the murder. Matthew McKiernan (Gaelic spelling: Maitiu Mág Tighearnán) has been identified as the man who clubbed the African with a hurley stick, attempting to stop the attack. He and other pedestrians did what they could, but by the time they were able to intervene, exceptionally grave wounds had already been sustained by the victim. They did their best, but there was only so much they could do as taking care of the problem was not a viable option as police were seconds away from the scene and would have absolutely arrested citizens for continuing the counterattack on the African after they arrived. Nevertheless, the entire city of Belfast is calling for blood right now, and tonight they might just get it. For historical context, this brutal attack took place in one of the most contentious districts on Earth. Belfast was one of the epicenters of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, and the northwest quadrant of the city is still host to many "peace lines" to this very day. Granted, most of the old maps designating the Catholic/Nationalist/Republican (CNR) areas from the Protestant/Ulster/Loyalist (PUL) areas of the city are a bit outdated and not as strictly delineated in real life as it is marked on the map sometimes. Plus, the old history of political ideology, infamous organizations, and current political leadership is incredibly complicated. In short, neither side can rightfully point the finger at the other on this issue, because elements on both sides have resulted in furthering mass migration into Ireland. On the ground, this attack took place in a strong CNR community, right along a historic dividing line, so multiple communities have a vested interest in handling the situation. Even before sunset this evening communities which have quite literally killed each other over dividing lines, are at least beginning to acknowledge the seriousness of the current migration situation, while also acknowledging that singing songs and holding hands is still unlikely between Protestants and Catholics in many of these communities. Though the situation is incredibly complicated, when it comes to beheadings in the streets, the seriousness of the situation is stratifying along bigger lines than the history of the region. At his core, an Irishman is an Irishman, regardless of affiliation, and much like most of Western Civilization, the unofficial national sports are drinking, fighting, and blowing stuff up. As a result, there are solutions to these problems, if attention on all sides can be focused appropriately. There may indeed be more room for slight-cooperation between age-old factions which might have the chance to re-examine what lines of division are worth postponing for a time, as more pressing threats are already inside the fence....threats which are neither Catholic nor Protestant. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
5:45

//The Wire//2300Z June 9, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ATTEMPTED BEHEADING REPORTED IN IRELAND, RIOTS UNDERWAY. U.S. ARMY HELICOPTER SHOT DOWN IN GULF OF OMAN. KARMELO ANTHONY FOUND GUILTY OF MURDER.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight one U.S. Army AH-64 helicopter crashed feet-wet off the coast of Oman. Both the pilot and the co-pilot/gunner managed to egress from the aircraft, and were rescued two hours after the crash. At the time of the crash, CENTCOM did not disclose the reason for the incident, however this afternoon President Trump confirmed that this aircraft was shot down by Iranian forces. Analyst Comment: Two hours in the water is a long time in terms of Combat Search and Rescue, and it's a miracle that they were rescued. Of note, some sources are claiming that the rescue method for the downed aviators took the form of an unusual source...an American Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV). If this is true (which we may never know), this would be the first instance of an American drone boat being used for rescue operations in a combat zone. Northern Ireland: Yesterday evening an extremely graphic beheading attempt was reported on a residential street in Belfast. One Sudanese national attacked a local, gouging out his eyes with a knife and attempting to behead him. The exceptionally brutal attack was captured on tape, and the video circulated widely in the moments after the attack. The status of the victim remains unclear, but he is receiving medical care for his many wounds. The victim has not been identified by name, however he's reportedly from Scotland and also hard-of-hearing, leaving him more vulnerable to the attack. Analyst Comment: The attacker was initially hospitalized at The Mater, the main hospital in Belfast. It is unclear as to if the attacker is still physically located at this site, but he was spotted in the hospital by local intelligence networks as he was being given a medical exam post-incident. The suspect is most likely being held at the Musgrave Custody Suite on Victoria Street, which is one of the more protected sites in Belfast and can hold high-security detainees. Despite the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) not charging this individual under terrorism charges, there's a very high likelihood that the attacker would not survive the first night once other detainees found out what he did. The assailant was granted asylum status as a refugee a few years ago, though the exact nature of this legal status is not entirely clear. -HomeFront- Texas: This afternoon Karmello Anthony was found guilty of the murder Austin Metcalf. So far limited protest activity has been observed outside the courthouse. Analyst Comment: No big mobilizations or riots have been observed yet, however more significant efforts might take some time to organize as it's only a Tuesday. Too soon to tell if this is going to become a hot state of unrest, but seeing as tension has been building on this for a while, it could go either way. The next big decision point will be sentencing, which will be decided soon by the same jury. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As one might expect, the situation in Northern Ireland has reached a boiling point. Mass riots are already underway as of this report (and likely planned for the next few weeks), as the Irish begin to organize and mobilize. Tonight, local paramilitary groups have requested all residents of Belfast to turn off their doorbell cameras, and PSNI checkpoints are already established around the city preparing for the events of the next few days. Concerning the site of the mutilation, the location of the attempted beheading has been host to violence before. This exact apartment building has been the site of violent murders in the past. In 2019, two bodies were found brutally murdered inside Kinnaird Close, with the trial for the murderer concluding a couple of years ago. Of note, the attack yesterday evening was halted by Irishmen who intervened to attempt to stop the murder. Matthew McKiernan (Gaelic spelling: Maitiu Mág Tighearnán) has been identified as the man who clubbed the African with a hurley stick, attempting to stop the attack. He and other pedestrians did what they could, but by the time they were able to intervene, exceptionally grave wounds had already been sustained by the victim. They did their best, but there was only so much they could do as taking care of the problem was not a viable option as police were seconds away from the scene and would have absolutely arrested citizens for continuing the counterattack on the African after they arrived. Nevertheless, the entire city of Belfast is calling for blood right now, and tonight they might just get it. For historical context, this brutal attack took place in one of the most contentious districts on Earth. Belfast was one of the epicenters of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, and the northwest quadrant of the city is still host to many "peace lines" to this very day. Granted, most of the old maps designating the Catholic/Nationalist/Republican (CNR) areas from the Protestant/Ulster/Loyalist (PUL) areas of the city are a bit outdated and not as strictly delineated in real life as it is marked on the map sometimes. Plus, the old history of political ideology, infamous organizations, and current political leadership is incredibly complicated. In short, neither side can rightfully point the finger at the other on this issue, because elements on both sides have resulted in furthering mass migration into Ireland. On the ground, this attack took place in a strong CNR community, right along a historic dividing line, so multiple communities have a vested interest in handling the situation. Even before sunset this evening communities which have quite literally killed each other over dividing lines, are at least beginning to acknowledge the seriousness of the current migration situation, while also acknowledging that singing songs and holding hands is still unlikely between Protestants and Catholics in many of these communities. Though the situation is incredibly complicated, when it comes to beheadings in the streets, the seriousness of the situation is stratifying along bigger lines than the history of the region. At his core, an Irishman is an Irishman, regardless of affiliation, and much like most of Western Civilization, the unofficial national sports are drinking, fighting, and blowing stuff up. As a result, there are solutions to these problems, if attention on all sides can be focused appropriately. There may indeed be more room for slight-cooperation between age-old factions which might have the chance to re-examine what lines of division are worth postponing for a time, as more pressing threats are already inside the fence....threats which are neither Catholic nor Protestant. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

12,582 次观看 • 2 个月前

Former Pfizer VP Michael Yeadon—who's better credentialed than anyone on Earth to know—explains, in detail, how the Covid injections are undoubtedly bioweapons aimed at maiming, slaughtering, and sterilizing the human population. "These [jab components] together told me someone got in a room, someone like me, and said, Dr. Yeadon, design injections that will injure, kill, and reduce fertility in the people you give it to. And design it so that it won't kill everybody, it won't injure everybody. But if we give it to enough people, over time, it will lower the fertility and their health and reduce population. And this is what I have watched happen all around me for five years...." This clip of Yeadon, an expert in the area of allergies and respiratory therapeutics who spent more than 23 years in the pharmaceutical industry (including years as a vice president at Pfizer), is taken from testimony given as a part of a lawsuit Dutch attorney Peter Stassen has brought against "the architects of The Great Reset," including Bill Gates, Mark Rutte, and Albert Bourla. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "The really important thing I need to tell you about, because this comes from the core of my training, and then decades of application of looking for potential toxic vulnerabilities in a medicine. It was in the core of my training to look out for molecules and components that were picked, up for good reasons to accomplish some medicinal aim, but might have toxic liabilities. "When I describe to you three things about these so-called vaccines that I know as a professional from this industry that gave birth to them, must axiomatically cause injury or be known to be risks, I could pick others, but there are three that I know to be true in the heart of my being in training. "The first one is we were told that these molecules were gene sequences that encoded something called spike protein. The spike protein, we were told, was on the outside of this virus. Now, I don't agree with that, but this is what we were told. A cartoon like a sphere with spikes coming out of it. We were told these vaccines encoded the protein, the spike protein that sat on the outside of these viruses. And this would train your immune system to fight it off. "Ladies and gentlemen, is a really important concept in immunology. It's taught to every person who has a training in immunology, as I did in the first lesson. What allows your body to treat itself kind kindly, but to go to war if something untoward is discovered in your body? And the concept is self, non self or foreign? My body is healthy right now. My immune system that is surveilling all parts of my body is at peace with itself because everything it encounters is known to it to belong to Mike Yeadon—itself. "If you inject me with a gene sequence that will make my body manufacture a foreign protein that isn't me, that is a viral protein, my body, every cell in my body that follows that instruction will signal to my immune system that I have been attacked. And my immune system goes to war, attacks and kills every cell that complied with that instruction. And that is what has happened, ladies and gentlemen, to every cell in every tissue, in every person who has been thus injected. "The toxicity that you would experience varies tremendously because some people would take it up efficiently, copy it efficiently, make the protein for a long time, And I'm afraid those people are mostly dead. Other people took it up poorly, transcribed it poorly, and only briefly, and those people are alive, and then there's every continuity in between. "But that point that, if you inject an instruction that makes your body make a foreign protein that is not self, your immune system will attack it. Ladies and gentlemen, you know this. This is the principle of tissue matching in organ transplantation. This is the principle behind failed tissue transplant, organ rejection. This, ladies and gentlemen, is the basis behind autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and many others, and neurological diseases where you, your body destroys itself. "That is the first principle that was designed into every company's molecule. Moderna, Pfizer, Johnson and Johnson AstraZeneca. So I knew by the middle of 2020 these were designed to cause injury. How much I didn't know, I still don't completely know. But this expert is telling you that they were designed to cause injury. "The second really important point to tell you about is what was encoded in these gene based vaccines. Alleged, vaccines is spike protein. I didn't know what spike protein was, it was new to me. But it's the spikes on the outside of this alleged virus that I don't think is real. I could find proteins like it. And I found all of them were known to be toxins like neurotoxins, cardiotoxins and things that would prompt blood coagulation. "So again, the question, why would you encode in your helpful medicinal product something that when expressed in your body would harm you? That's the second thing. There is a third one, which is when I discovered it, late in 2020 or early 2021, I have to say, I cried. "Two of the products made by Pfizer Moderna were formulated. Every medicine is formulated. You'll be familiar with a tablet, might be film coated or dry. It might be a capsule of various sizes. It could be a liquid for injection, an inhaler. All of these. You have the active principle, but it's surrounded and protected with something that helps it do its work, hopefully beneficial work. Two of these products will were wrapped in something called lipid nanoparticles or LNPs. "Lipid is fat. Nano means tiny particle, means little blobs. So they were wrapped in lipid nanoparticles. And I looked them up and I thought that's quite interesting. They had been used before in certain oncology drugs. But here was the thing. As a toxicologist, when I started researching, I thought these things are known to be toxic. And the further I explored here is the shocking thing. Lipid nanoparticles, every one of them tested is known to promote the uptake of their payload, whatever they were protecting, into the organs inside your abdomen, what's called the visceral organs and most prominently, liver and your ovaries. "So, ladies and gentlemen, the person who picks lipid nanoparticles to formulate these materials knew professionally that when it was injected into women and girls, this material would travel around their body and concentrate in their reproductive organs. And then it would do those two things I just described. It would be expressed and your body would recognize it as foreign, and kill those cells. "It would, when expressed, cause toxicity directly to those cells. And I ask you, ladies and gentlemen, what possible motivation could you have for doing that when you could have picked half a dozen other means of protecting the drug? And I have to say, at that point, I knew deeply in my heart that the first two observations I made weren't just like mistakes or things, they would ride the risks. "These three things together told me someone got in a room, someone like me, and said, Dr. Yeadon, design injections that will injure, kill, and reduce fertility in the people you give it to. And design it so that it won't kill everybody, it won't injure everybody. But if we give it to enough people, over time, it will lower the fertility and their health and reduce population. And this is what I have watched happen all around me for five years, since that moment."
8:00

Former Pfizer VP Michael Yeadon—who's better credentialed than anyone on Earth to know—explains, in detail, how the Covid injections are undoubtedly bioweapons aimed at maiming, slaughtering, and sterilizing the human population. "These [jab components] together told me someone got in a room, someone like me, and said, Dr. Yeadon, design injections that will injure, kill, and reduce fertility in the people you give it to. And design it so that it won't kill everybody, it won't injure everybody. But if we give it to enough people, over time, it will lower the fertility and their health and reduce population. And this is what I have watched happen all around me for five years...." This clip of Yeadon, an expert in the area of allergies and respiratory therapeutics who spent more than 23 years in the pharmaceutical industry (including years as a vice president at Pfizer), is taken from testimony given as a part of a lawsuit Dutch attorney Peter Stassen has brought against "the architects of The Great Reset," including Bill Gates, Mark Rutte, and Albert Bourla. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "The really important thing I need to tell you about, because this comes from the core of my training, and then decades of application of looking for potential toxic vulnerabilities in a medicine. It was in the core of my training to look out for molecules and components that were picked, up for good reasons to accomplish some medicinal aim, but might have toxic liabilities. "When I describe to you three things about these so-called vaccines that I know as a professional from this industry that gave birth to them, must axiomatically cause injury or be known to be risks, I could pick others, but there are three that I know to be true in the heart of my being in training. "The first one is we were told that these molecules were gene sequences that encoded something called spike protein. The spike protein, we were told, was on the outside of this virus. Now, I don't agree with that, but this is what we were told. A cartoon like a sphere with spikes coming out of it. We were told these vaccines encoded the protein, the spike protein that sat on the outside of these viruses. And this would train your immune system to fight it off. "Ladies and gentlemen, is a really important concept in immunology. It's taught to every person who has a training in immunology, as I did in the first lesson. What allows your body to treat itself kind kindly, but to go to war if something untoward is discovered in your body? And the concept is self, non self or foreign? My body is healthy right now. My immune system that is surveilling all parts of my body is at peace with itself because everything it encounters is known to it to belong to Mike Yeadon—itself. "If you inject me with a gene sequence that will make my body manufacture a foreign protein that isn't me, that is a viral protein, my body, every cell in my body that follows that instruction will signal to my immune system that I have been attacked. And my immune system goes to war, attacks and kills every cell that complied with that instruction. And that is what has happened, ladies and gentlemen, to every cell in every tissue, in every person who has been thus injected. "The toxicity that you would experience varies tremendously because some people would take it up efficiently, copy it efficiently, make the protein for a long time, And I'm afraid those people are mostly dead. Other people took it up poorly, transcribed it poorly, and only briefly, and those people are alive, and then there's every continuity in between. "But that point that, if you inject an instruction that makes your body make a foreign protein that is not self, your immune system will attack it. Ladies and gentlemen, you know this. This is the principle of tissue matching in organ transplantation. This is the principle behind failed tissue transplant, organ rejection. This, ladies and gentlemen, is the basis behind autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and many others, and neurological diseases where you, your body destroys itself. "That is the first principle that was designed into every company's molecule. Moderna, Pfizer, Johnson and Johnson AstraZeneca. So I knew by the middle of 2020 these were designed to cause injury. How much I didn't know, I still don't completely know. But this expert is telling you that they were designed to cause injury. "The second really important point to tell you about is what was encoded in these gene based vaccines. Alleged, vaccines is spike protein. I didn't know what spike protein was, it was new to me. But it's the spikes on the outside of this alleged virus that I don't think is real. I could find proteins like it. And I found all of them were known to be toxins like neurotoxins, cardiotoxins and things that would prompt blood coagulation. "So again, the question, why would you encode in your helpful medicinal product something that when expressed in your body would harm you? That's the second thing. There is a third one, which is when I discovered it, late in 2020 or early 2021, I have to say, I cried. "Two of the products made by Pfizer Moderna were formulated. Every medicine is formulated. You'll be familiar with a tablet, might be film coated or dry. It might be a capsule of various sizes. It could be a liquid for injection, an inhaler. All of these. You have the active principle, but it's surrounded and protected with something that helps it do its work, hopefully beneficial work. Two of these products will were wrapped in something called lipid nanoparticles or LNPs. "Lipid is fat. Nano means tiny particle, means little blobs. So they were wrapped in lipid nanoparticles. And I looked them up and I thought that's quite interesting. They had been used before in certain oncology drugs. But here was the thing. As a toxicologist, when I started researching, I thought these things are known to be toxic. And the further I explored here is the shocking thing. Lipid nanoparticles, every one of them tested is known to promote the uptake of their payload, whatever they were protecting, into the organs inside your abdomen, what's called the visceral organs and most prominently, liver and your ovaries. "So, ladies and gentlemen, the person who picks lipid nanoparticles to formulate these materials knew professionally that when it was injected into women and girls, this material would travel around their body and concentrate in their reproductive organs. And then it would do those two things I just described. It would be expressed and your body would recognize it as foreign, and kill those cells. "It would, when expressed, cause toxicity directly to those cells. And I ask you, ladies and gentlemen, what possible motivation could you have for doing that when you could have picked half a dozen other means of protecting the drug? And I have to say, at that point, I knew deeply in my heart that the first two observations I made weren't just like mistakes or things, they would ride the risks. "These three things together told me someone got in a room, someone like me, and said, Dr. Yeadon, design injections that will injure, kill, and reduce fertility in the people you give it to. And design it so that it won't kill everybody, it won't injure everybody. But if we give it to enough people, over time, it will lower the fertility and their health and reduce population. And this is what I have watched happen all around me for five years, since that moment."

Sense Receptor

296,030 次观看 • 8 个月前

In trading, the common advice is to control two emotions - fear and greed. However, for nearly every trader I've encountered, including myself, anger and depression remain as constant undertones. They are the primary drivers of superperformance. Here's how: ✉️ I am usually a calm and happy person, and very rarely lose my temper. Despite the many years spent honing the craft of trading, I've never truly felt the overt confidence or exuberance that many fintwits often exhibit. Even though the primal errors have been eliminated and my game has transitioned to mental and emotional acuity, there are often times when I feel angry and frustrated with my performance, despite reaching new highs in my equity curve. It was during a Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 stream, where he discussed his mental state during his trading journey, that I recognized blind spots in my own trading. In poker terms, I'm an internal 'tilter' - I conceal my anger and frustration. Rather than showing external reactions, I become quieter and tenser. This change shows up in my risk-taking behaviour, as I start to take lower open risk or prematurely sell off profitable positions. However, this is a common phenomenon amongst traders, regardless of their experience and skill level. It was brilliantly conceptualized by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the Prospect Theory. Pain of losing > Joy of winning Consider an investor presented with two pitches for the same mutual fund: 1) Mutual Fund XYZ has averaged a return of 10% per annum over the last 3 years. 2) Mutual Fund XYZ has returned 25%, 15%, and -10% over the last 3 years. Both options essentially mean the same (ignoring compounding). However, most people choose option 1 over option 2. This is due to the Prospect theory, which states that people tend to pick options that show perceived gains rather than losses. Even when probabilities and outcomes are identical, individuals tend to prefer options that steer clear of potential losses. The theory suggests that losses have a more significant emotional impact on an individual than an equivalent amount of gains. The emotional toll of getting stopped out at (-) 1R is much higher than the satisfaction of a trade where you gain (+) 1R. Therefore, like most traders, if your win rate fluctuates between 35-65%, it still has a net negative impact on your emotional state. The influence of Prospect Theory is particularly significant in trading, where we risk not just our capital, but also our emotional well-being, effort, and time. Even in a job you dislike, you still receive a paycheck at the end of the month. However, in trading, losses and the uncertainty of profits affect us more deeply because a good effort doesn't always yield a positive outcome. The joy of winning doesn't fully compensate for the pain, especially when both outcomes stem from the same process. Winning becomes more about escaping the distress of losing than generating happiness in itself. However, Prospect Theory simply describes a pattern of human behavior. It's not an immutable law like gravity - behaviors can be identified and changed. Mapping Tilt In a bull market such as the current one, the tilt often isn't about stop losses, but rather about missed opportunities and profits. It's exciting to see the price rapidly increase when you enter a clean breakout, reaching multiples of your R within minutes. Unrealized profit often feels like it's already yours. However, as soon as the positions start turning against you, tilt seeps in because it feels like your money is being taken away. These are precisely the moments of weakness when you lose sight of your trade objective and settle for smaller profits. At the end of the day, or when you step back from the overflow of tilt, you estimate how much your portfolio could have grown if you had just held on to that position. This is a fool's errand. Knowing the right course of action in retrospect is fundamentally different from knowing what to do beforehand. Even though you understand this, a part of you can't resist indulging in the fantasy, which in turn increases your frustration. This is an excerpt from my earlier notes on how I mapped out my problem. The mental framework is based on what I learned from Jared Tendler 's excellent book, "The Mental Game of Trading." 1) What’s the problem: When I'm up in a trade, I believe I've earned the profits because of the hard work I put into identifying opportunities and adhering to my process. I don't want the price to drop back to my cost. If it does, all my efforts would be wasted and I wouldn't even secure the minimal profit I'm entitled to. 2) Why does the problem exist: I start to contemplate the utility value of the money - the unrealized profit equates to 3 months of my home loan EMI, 8 months of rent, or a family vacation. I believe I am deserving of a reward for my diligent effort and execution, and I am unwilling to let it slip away. 3) What is flawed: The aim of my trading isn't to support my everyday expenses or lifestyle, but instead to build generational wealth. By taking smaller profits prematurely, I'm limiting the leverage that could magnify the returns on my effort and time - same input with disproportionately larger output. The unrealised profit is not my money yet. 4) What’s the correction: Realised profit is the only profit that truly matters. A trade isn't successful when it becomes risk-free, but when you can leverage unrealised profits to achieve larger realised profits. 5) What logic confirms this correction: It is easy to start trading but easier to settle for mediocrity once you have started. Scaling up your portfolio will require you to overcome mental barriers more than technical ones. You also didn't learn to drive just to stay in second gear. Closing Note Anger arises when underlying flaws, biases, or illusions conflict with reality. At a fundamental level, anger represents this conflict which every elite performer has used as a core trigger to channel their performance. Don't be swayed by the false bravado and portrayed perfection on social media. Superperformance as a trader involves enduring trials by fire, which regularly include prolonged bouts of anger and frustration. In the longer term, your skills and willingness to take risks are what will generate wealth. As Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 puts it, everyone is in the same miserable boat -
1:00

In trading, the common advice is to control two emotions - fear and greed. However, for nearly every trader I've encountered, including myself, anger and depression remain as constant undertones. They are the primary drivers of superperformance. Here's how: ✉️ I am usually a calm and happy person, and very rarely lose my temper. Despite the many years spent honing the craft of trading, I've never truly felt the overt confidence or exuberance that many fintwits often exhibit. Even though the primal errors have been eliminated and my game has transitioned to mental and emotional acuity, there are often times when I feel angry and frustrated with my performance, despite reaching new highs in my equity curve. It was during a Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 stream, where he discussed his mental state during his trading journey, that I recognized blind spots in my own trading. In poker terms, I'm an internal 'tilter' - I conceal my anger and frustration. Rather than showing external reactions, I become quieter and tenser. This change shows up in my risk-taking behaviour, as I start to take lower open risk or prematurely sell off profitable positions. However, this is a common phenomenon amongst traders, regardless of their experience and skill level. It was brilliantly conceptualized by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the Prospect Theory. Pain of losing > Joy of winning Consider an investor presented with two pitches for the same mutual fund: 1) Mutual Fund XYZ has averaged a return of 10% per annum over the last 3 years. 2) Mutual Fund XYZ has returned 25%, 15%, and -10% over the last 3 years. Both options essentially mean the same (ignoring compounding). However, most people choose option 1 over option 2. This is due to the Prospect theory, which states that people tend to pick options that show perceived gains rather than losses. Even when probabilities and outcomes are identical, individuals tend to prefer options that steer clear of potential losses. The theory suggests that losses have a more significant emotional impact on an individual than an equivalent amount of gains. The emotional toll of getting stopped out at (-) 1R is much higher than the satisfaction of a trade where you gain (+) 1R. Therefore, like most traders, if your win rate fluctuates between 35-65%, it still has a net negative impact on your emotional state. The influence of Prospect Theory is particularly significant in trading, where we risk not just our capital, but also our emotional well-being, effort, and time. Even in a job you dislike, you still receive a paycheck at the end of the month. However, in trading, losses and the uncertainty of profits affect us more deeply because a good effort doesn't always yield a positive outcome. The joy of winning doesn't fully compensate for the pain, especially when both outcomes stem from the same process. Winning becomes more about escaping the distress of losing than generating happiness in itself. However, Prospect Theory simply describes a pattern of human behavior. It's not an immutable law like gravity - behaviors can be identified and changed. Mapping Tilt In a bull market such as the current one, the tilt often isn't about stop losses, but rather about missed opportunities and profits. It's exciting to see the price rapidly increase when you enter a clean breakout, reaching multiples of your R within minutes. Unrealized profit often feels like it's already yours. However, as soon as the positions start turning against you, tilt seeps in because it feels like your money is being taken away. These are precisely the moments of weakness when you lose sight of your trade objective and settle for smaller profits. At the end of the day, or when you step back from the overflow of tilt, you estimate how much your portfolio could have grown if you had just held on to that position. This is a fool's errand. Knowing the right course of action in retrospect is fundamentally different from knowing what to do beforehand. Even though you understand this, a part of you can't resist indulging in the fantasy, which in turn increases your frustration. This is an excerpt from my earlier notes on how I mapped out my problem. The mental framework is based on what I learned from Jared Tendler 's excellent book, "The Mental Game of Trading." 1) What’s the problem: When I'm up in a trade, I believe I've earned the profits because of the hard work I put into identifying opportunities and adhering to my process. I don't want the price to drop back to my cost. If it does, all my efforts would be wasted and I wouldn't even secure the minimal profit I'm entitled to. 2) Why does the problem exist: I start to contemplate the utility value of the money - the unrealized profit equates to 3 months of my home loan EMI, 8 months of rent, or a family vacation. I believe I am deserving of a reward for my diligent effort and execution, and I am unwilling to let it slip away. 3) What is flawed: The aim of my trading isn't to support my everyday expenses or lifestyle, but instead to build generational wealth. By taking smaller profits prematurely, I'm limiting the leverage that could magnify the returns on my effort and time - same input with disproportionately larger output. The unrealised profit is not my money yet. 4) What’s the correction: Realised profit is the only profit that truly matters. A trade isn't successful when it becomes risk-free, but when you can leverage unrealised profits to achieve larger realised profits. 5) What logic confirms this correction: It is easy to start trading but easier to settle for mediocrity once you have started. Scaling up your portfolio will require you to overcome mental barriers more than technical ones. You also didn't learn to drive just to stay in second gear. Closing Note Anger arises when underlying flaws, biases, or illusions conflict with reality. At a fundamental level, anger represents this conflict which every elite performer has used as a core trigger to channel their performance. Don't be swayed by the false bravado and portrayed perfection on social media. Superperformance as a trader involves enduring trials by fire, which regularly include prolonged bouts of anger and frustration. In the longer term, your skills and willingness to take risks are what will generate wealth. As Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 puts it, everyone is in the same miserable boat -

Anuragg Venkatakrishnan

21,379 次观看 • 2 年前

Analyzing Episode 60. Season 2 aka Motherhood Deconstructed I want to start this analysis with a disclaimer that I'll be writing about that kiss separately, because really, it deserves a post of its own. I'll talk about it here briefly, but this analysis will stick to the overall events of ep 60. To me, the main theme of this episode was motherhood. Be it Alya, Nare, Zerrin, Sadakat, and yes, even the dishrag. We see how these different women strive, suffer, and never stop trying to keep their children with them, all except one. So, let's begin. We start episode 60 with Alya and Cihan awaiting to conduct a DNA test on baby Simal, whom Kaya insists is his child. Long story short, Kaya is feeling a little pissed about Zerrin keeping the truth of Simal from him, and he has a point. But then, it's not like Zerrin has had a jolly good time pretending to play house with a creep like Demir. The only reason she relents is to keep her baby safe. So, it's a catch-22 situation, where both sides are right and wrong. But, it's not like we don't know these two will make up soon. What stood out to me in that sequence was Alya taking charge of ensuring Zerrin has access to her baby. She knows exactly what it is to be separated from one's child, and she's kind and brave enough to refuse to let anyone suffer through the same. So, in a way, Alya's motherhood doesn't just extend to Deniz. It encompasses her to the point where she shields all those she feels need protection. I also like the fact that she's taken Zerrin under her wing, because when the latter moves into the konak with Sadakat, she'll need all the help she can get. The next sequence begins at the hospital, where Nare is still hell-bent on continuing with the pregnancy, though at great risk to her life. This is another glimpse of motherhood the show gives us - in the shape of a woman who is so in love with her unborn child already, she's willing to risk death to bring it into the world. Contrasted to that is Sadakat, who's willing to lie or cheat to keep her daughter alive. Here is a ruthless kind of motherhood. Sadakat's love (if you can call it that) has always been wrapped in control, manipulation, and fear. But, still at the center of all her ugliness is a woman who doesn't want to lose her children. Nare is willing to die for her child, Sadakat is willing to kill Nare's child to ensure she lives - quite the compelling contrast. Different forms of motherhood, but both rooted in desperation. In the middle of all that, Meryem pops up like a bad penny. But even as she arrives in that room and Sadakat wants to keep her there, the awkward silence that envelops the space as she lingers is telling. She doesn't belong, it seems to say. But, there's another person who's starting to question their 'belonging' in this new version of the past that's come back - and of course, that's Alya. The more she sees Meryem infiltrate parts of her life beyond the konak, the more her exposed nerves are rubbed raw. This woman is so close to complete and utter exhaustion, it's heartbreaking. What's even more heartbreaking is that while she tries to be there for everyone, she herself cuts everyone off when she feels troubled. And that, to me, is where the episode quietly portrays the emotional labor aspect of being a mom. Alya mothers everyone around her. Nare, Zerrin, Kaya, and Deniz. Even Cihan at times. She absorbs pain, tries to stem chaos, protects others from falling apart, yet when it comes to her own fears and insecurities, she retreats inward completely. It's almost as if she believes she only deserves to be the shelter, never the one allowed to seek sanctuary. Because children who grow up thinking they've been abandoned grow up thinking love is a thing to be earned through caring or usefulness. So, instead of asking for comfort, they always end up providing it. But humans, even the strongest of the strong, have their limits. And, it's so clear that Alya is close to reaching hers. So, when Cihan is forced to relent and allow Mujgan and her son to the konak because Deniz wants it, Alya does what she does best - she withdraws and leaves the source of discomfort. That's why she tells Cihan she hates going to the konak now because every time she goes there, the spectre of Meryem and what she can snatch away becomes unavoidable. And, as blind as Cihan can be at times, he picks up on that. He knows exactly what she's trying to do, which is why he tries to redirect her attention to the fact that he hates going to the konak without Alya around, too. He wants to be wherever Alya is. In his own way, he's trying to tell her it doesn't matter who stays at that house; it's only home to Cihan when Alya is around. His words reach Alya, which is why she relents and visits the konak for a few hours, but then shit hits the fan again. We'll get to that, but first, let's talk about Meryem. Meryem's scene in the hospital with Mujgan reveals Meryem saying she can't tell Cihan about Serhat because she's not sure who the father is, and that she'd rather live in the hope that Serhat is the son of the man she loves, bla blah. Now, go back and think of all the versions of motherhood we've seen in this series, and indeed this episode. They all have one thing in common - that all the mothers did whatever they had to, and bore whatever came their way to ensure their babies stayed with them. No matter how much Alya, Zerrin, or Nare love their better halves, when push came to shove, they put their children first. Even Sadakat married Azem for Boran. All except one. Meryem. Meryem sent her son away and made it look like he was Mujgan's child, thereby erasing all his links to her. One could argue it was because she feared Feyyaz. But what's stopping her now? Let's assume what Meryem says is right and there's a 50 percent chance Serhat is Cihan's son. For a mother desperate to save her child from danger, those are pretty good odds, so why avoid the DNA test? Suppose Serhat turns out to be Feyyaz's son; even so, if she comes clean with Cihan, she knows he's the kind to help her, even if just to keep an innocent child safe. So, her version of motherhood sticks out like a sore thumb in the episode. In contrast, I found Alya's line, 'When it comes to my son, I put him before everything and everyone else,' much more fitting with the theme. Mothers on the defensive, who feel there's a threat to their child's wellbeing, will relent to even the most extreme measure - even if it tears their own being apart. Alya hates being away from Cihan. She hates that distance she imposes between them as much as Cihan, but she can't help it. Because the mother in her won't let her choose anything else. Which is why I say Serhat is almost like an afterthought to Meryem because his needs are never the focus. And I get the feeling that whatever Meryem is trying to hide threatens not her son, but likely the version of herself she's presented to the world. Even when I rewatched the kite flying scene, the way the camera pans into Serhat only once, but mostly focuses on Cihan and Alya after showing us Meryem is telling. Like this is a woman not going through hell because of her child, but because she's looking at a structure of acceptance she's no longer able to enter. Life at the konak, Cihan's family unit, his love for Alya and Deniz - it's everything that could have been hers once, but no longer. No matter how she tries, she no longer fits. And honestly, that’s why that sense of not belonging is even more overt in an episode about motherhood. Every other mother in this episode becomes messy because of love for their child. Nare breaks down. Zerrin panics. Sadakat manipulates openly. Alya practically emotionally disintegrates trying to hold everything together. Their feelings spill all over the place because motherhood, especially threatened motherhood, breaks people down. But Meryem remains oddly stoic throughout it all, except for a few tears. She's mostly careful and controlled, and always aware of who's watching her. Going back to the point of shit hitting the fan, when Alya discovers Meryem and Mujgan in Cihan's room, she doesn't buy Meryem's story for a bit. When Cihan tries to calm the situation, she dismantles the sorry excuse Meryem gives with two questions. In other words, her spidey senses pick up trouble, but she keeps it locked in because she doesn't want to appear as the jealous, unreasonable wife. But things come to a head anyway when Feyyaz cuts Cihan and Alya off on the road. Cihan seems to finally realize exactly the kind of trouble Meryem has unleashed in their lives when Feyyaz keeps eyeing Alya. Because to Feyyaz's psychotic mind, Cihan is keeping Meryem away from him, which makes Alya fair game. But when Cihan insists Alya return to the konak, Alya flat out refuses, and all the pressure that's been building inside her gets directed at Cihan. She knows deep down he's not at fault, but the fact that he's jumped into another situation without thinking of the danger, grates on her nerves. Which is why her default setting kicks in; she demands that Cihan bring Deniz to her and leave the apartment. Cihan, who is already reeling from Alya pulling back from him and the reality of Feyyaz targeting the only thing he truly holds dear, is desperate to stop Alya's isolation before she decides he's not worth all the misery she's suffering, and does what's worked for him once before in a desperate situation (the airport, anyone?). He forgets everything, pulls Alya in, and kisses the breath out of her. And, it works too, because for that moment, Alya stops spiraling long enough to simply feel. To stop calculating danger or bracing for abandonment. She feels loved and safe in Cihan's arms again. That's what makes that kiss so powerful. It isn't just the passion. It's the desperation behind it, on both sides. Cihan isn't kissing Alya because he wants to win an argument. He's kissing her because he's terrified, and he misses her. He's worried that if she keeps retreating inward, one day she'll retreat so far he won't be able to reach her anymore. Worried that all the fear, exhaustion, and pressure she's carrying will eventually make her decide loving him isn't worth the cost. And Alya responds because beneath all her anger, fear, and exhaustion, she loves him just as desperately. That's the irony of CihAl this season. They're not going to pieces because the love is weakening. They're going to pieces because the love has become so enormous that losing it feels catastrophic to both of them. To conclude, everything within ep 60, including the kiss, works so beautifully because technically everyone is unraveling. Every woman in this episode is fighting to protect something she loves, but the ways they do so reveal who they are at their core. Alya protects by sacrificing parts of herself. Nare protects by risking herself. Sadakat protects by controlling others. Zerrin protects by enduring humiliation. And Meryem... Meryem protects the narratives she builds. Her emotions, while visible, don't land with impact, almost as if they're missing a core ingredient. On the opposite end of the spectrum lie CihAl, whose love strips them bare, only for them to realize that retreat is no option. The only way forward for them is through - through fear, through exhaustion, through jealousy, through danger, and through every ugly and painful thing that loving someone this deeply awakens inside them. Because CihAl are incapable of loving each other halfway. Their love keeps dragging every hidden wound, every insecurity, every instinct to the surface until there is nowhere left to hide. And maybe that’s the real contrast episode 60 quietly builds toward: one side clinging to carefully maintained facades, the other being emotionally dismantled by a love too raw and overwhelming to remain controlled. Till later, happy reading, y'all. #CihAl #UzakŞehir
5:10

Analyzing Episode 60. Season 2 aka Motherhood Deconstructed I want to start this analysis with a disclaimer that I'll be writing about that kiss separately, because really, it deserves a post of its own. I'll talk about it here briefly, but this analysis will stick to the overall events of ep 60. To me, the main theme of this episode was motherhood. Be it Alya, Nare, Zerrin, Sadakat, and yes, even the dishrag. We see how these different women strive, suffer, and never stop trying to keep their children with them, all except one. So, let's begin. We start episode 60 with Alya and Cihan awaiting to conduct a DNA test on baby Simal, whom Kaya insists is his child. Long story short, Kaya is feeling a little pissed about Zerrin keeping the truth of Simal from him, and he has a point. But then, it's not like Zerrin has had a jolly good time pretending to play house with a creep like Demir. The only reason she relents is to keep her baby safe. So, it's a catch-22 situation, where both sides are right and wrong. But, it's not like we don't know these two will make up soon. What stood out to me in that sequence was Alya taking charge of ensuring Zerrin has access to her baby. She knows exactly what it is to be separated from one's child, and she's kind and brave enough to refuse to let anyone suffer through the same. So, in a way, Alya's motherhood doesn't just extend to Deniz. It encompasses her to the point where she shields all those she feels need protection. I also like the fact that she's taken Zerrin under her wing, because when the latter moves into the konak with Sadakat, she'll need all the help she can get. The next sequence begins at the hospital, where Nare is still hell-bent on continuing with the pregnancy, though at great risk to her life. This is another glimpse of motherhood the show gives us - in the shape of a woman who is so in love with her unborn child already, she's willing to risk death to bring it into the world. Contrasted to that is Sadakat, who's willing to lie or cheat to keep her daughter alive. Here is a ruthless kind of motherhood. Sadakat's love (if you can call it that) has always been wrapped in control, manipulation, and fear. But, still at the center of all her ugliness is a woman who doesn't want to lose her children. Nare is willing to die for her child, Sadakat is willing to kill Nare's child to ensure she lives - quite the compelling contrast. Different forms of motherhood, but both rooted in desperation. In the middle of all that, Meryem pops up like a bad penny. But even as she arrives in that room and Sadakat wants to keep her there, the awkward silence that envelops the space as she lingers is telling. She doesn't belong, it seems to say. But, there's another person who's starting to question their 'belonging' in this new version of the past that's come back - and of course, that's Alya. The more she sees Meryem infiltrate parts of her life beyond the konak, the more her exposed nerves are rubbed raw. This woman is so close to complete and utter exhaustion, it's heartbreaking. What's even more heartbreaking is that while she tries to be there for everyone, she herself cuts everyone off when she feels troubled. And that, to me, is where the episode quietly portrays the emotional labor aspect of being a mom. Alya mothers everyone around her. Nare, Zerrin, Kaya, and Deniz. Even Cihan at times. She absorbs pain, tries to stem chaos, protects others from falling apart, yet when it comes to her own fears and insecurities, she retreats inward completely. It's almost as if she believes she only deserves to be the shelter, never the one allowed to seek sanctuary. Because children who grow up thinking they've been abandoned grow up thinking love is a thing to be earned through caring or usefulness. So, instead of asking for comfort, they always end up providing it. But humans, even the strongest of the strong, have their limits. And, it's so clear that Alya is close to reaching hers. So, when Cihan is forced to relent and allow Mujgan and her son to the konak because Deniz wants it, Alya does what she does best - she withdraws and leaves the source of discomfort. That's why she tells Cihan she hates going to the konak now because every time she goes there, the spectre of Meryem and what she can snatch away becomes unavoidable. And, as blind as Cihan can be at times, he picks up on that. He knows exactly what she's trying to do, which is why he tries to redirect her attention to the fact that he hates going to the konak without Alya around, too. He wants to be wherever Alya is. In his own way, he's trying to tell her it doesn't matter who stays at that house; it's only home to Cihan when Alya is around. His words reach Alya, which is why she relents and visits the konak for a few hours, but then shit hits the fan again. We'll get to that, but first, let's talk about Meryem. Meryem's scene in the hospital with Mujgan reveals Meryem saying she can't tell Cihan about Serhat because she's not sure who the father is, and that she'd rather live in the hope that Serhat is the son of the man she loves, bla blah. Now, go back and think of all the versions of motherhood we've seen in this series, and indeed this episode. They all have one thing in common - that all the mothers did whatever they had to, and bore whatever came their way to ensure their babies stayed with them. No matter how much Alya, Zerrin, or Nare love their better halves, when push came to shove, they put their children first. Even Sadakat married Azem for Boran. All except one. Meryem. Meryem sent her son away and made it look like he was Mujgan's child, thereby erasing all his links to her. One could argue it was because she feared Feyyaz. But what's stopping her now? Let's assume what Meryem says is right and there's a 50 percent chance Serhat is Cihan's son. For a mother desperate to save her child from danger, those are pretty good odds, so why avoid the DNA test? Suppose Serhat turns out to be Feyyaz's son; even so, if she comes clean with Cihan, she knows he's the kind to help her, even if just to keep an innocent child safe. So, her version of motherhood sticks out like a sore thumb in the episode. In contrast, I found Alya's line, 'When it comes to my son, I put him before everything and everyone else,' much more fitting with the theme. Mothers on the defensive, who feel there's a threat to their child's wellbeing, will relent to even the most extreme measure - even if it tears their own being apart. Alya hates being away from Cihan. She hates that distance she imposes between them as much as Cihan, but she can't help it. Because the mother in her won't let her choose anything else. Which is why I say Serhat is almost like an afterthought to Meryem because his needs are never the focus. And I get the feeling that whatever Meryem is trying to hide threatens not her son, but likely the version of herself she's presented to the world. Even when I rewatched the kite flying scene, the way the camera pans into Serhat only once, but mostly focuses on Cihan and Alya after showing us Meryem is telling. Like this is a woman not going through hell because of her child, but because she's looking at a structure of acceptance she's no longer able to enter. Life at the konak, Cihan's family unit, his love for Alya and Deniz - it's everything that could have been hers once, but no longer. No matter how she tries, she no longer fits. And honestly, that’s why that sense of not belonging is even more overt in an episode about motherhood. Every other mother in this episode becomes messy because of love for their child. Nare breaks down. Zerrin panics. Sadakat manipulates openly. Alya practically emotionally disintegrates trying to hold everything together. Their feelings spill all over the place because motherhood, especially threatened motherhood, breaks people down. But Meryem remains oddly stoic throughout it all, except for a few tears. She's mostly careful and controlled, and always aware of who's watching her. Going back to the point of shit hitting the fan, when Alya discovers Meryem and Mujgan in Cihan's room, she doesn't buy Meryem's story for a bit. When Cihan tries to calm the situation, she dismantles the sorry excuse Meryem gives with two questions. In other words, her spidey senses pick up trouble, but she keeps it locked in because she doesn't want to appear as the jealous, unreasonable wife. But things come to a head anyway when Feyyaz cuts Cihan and Alya off on the road. Cihan seems to finally realize exactly the kind of trouble Meryem has unleashed in their lives when Feyyaz keeps eyeing Alya. Because to Feyyaz's psychotic mind, Cihan is keeping Meryem away from him, which makes Alya fair game. But when Cihan insists Alya return to the konak, Alya flat out refuses, and all the pressure that's been building inside her gets directed at Cihan. She knows deep down he's not at fault, but the fact that he's jumped into another situation without thinking of the danger, grates on her nerves. Which is why her default setting kicks in; she demands that Cihan bring Deniz to her and leave the apartment. Cihan, who is already reeling from Alya pulling back from him and the reality of Feyyaz targeting the only thing he truly holds dear, is desperate to stop Alya's isolation before she decides he's not worth all the misery she's suffering, and does what's worked for him once before in a desperate situation (the airport, anyone?). He forgets everything, pulls Alya in, and kisses the breath out of her. And, it works too, because for that moment, Alya stops spiraling long enough to simply feel. To stop calculating danger or bracing for abandonment. She feels loved and safe in Cihan's arms again. That's what makes that kiss so powerful. It isn't just the passion. It's the desperation behind it, on both sides. Cihan isn't kissing Alya because he wants to win an argument. He's kissing her because he's terrified, and he misses her. He's worried that if she keeps retreating inward, one day she'll retreat so far he won't be able to reach her anymore. Worried that all the fear, exhaustion, and pressure she's carrying will eventually make her decide loving him isn't worth the cost. And Alya responds because beneath all her anger, fear, and exhaustion, she loves him just as desperately. That's the irony of CihAl this season. They're not going to pieces because the love is weakening. They're going to pieces because the love has become so enormous that losing it feels catastrophic to both of them. To conclude, everything within ep 60, including the kiss, works so beautifully because technically everyone is unraveling. Every woman in this episode is fighting to protect something she loves, but the ways they do so reveal who they are at their core. Alya protects by sacrificing parts of herself. Nare protects by risking herself. Sadakat protects by controlling others. Zerrin protects by enduring humiliation. And Meryem... Meryem protects the narratives she builds. Her emotions, while visible, don't land with impact, almost as if they're missing a core ingredient. On the opposite end of the spectrum lie CihAl, whose love strips them bare, only for them to realize that retreat is no option. The only way forward for them is through - through fear, through exhaustion, through jealousy, through danger, and through every ugly and painful thing that loving someone this deeply awakens inside them. Because CihAl are incapable of loving each other halfway. Their love keeps dragging every hidden wound, every insecurity, every instinct to the surface until there is nowhere left to hide. And maybe that’s the real contrast episode 60 quietly builds toward: one side clinging to carefully maintained facades, the other being emotionally dismantled by a love too raw and overwhelming to remain controlled. Till later, happy reading, y'all. #CihAl #UzakŞehir

CocoLoco

12,775 次观看 • 3 个月前

In the 1920s, a Stanford psychologist tracked genius children for 50 years. Malcolm Gladwell breaks down what he discovered: Rich families → successful. Poor families → failures. Not average. Failures. Genius-level IQs that produced nothing. He spent 60 minutes at Microsoft explaining why we're wrong about success: The psychologist was named Terman. He gave IQ tests to 250,000 California schoolchildren. He identified the top 0.1%. Kids with IQs of 140 and above. His hypothesis: these children would become the leaders of academia, industry, and politics. He tracked them. And tracked them. For decades. The results split into three groups. The top 15% achieved real prominence. The middle group had average, moderately successful professional lives. And the bottom group? By any measure, failures. The difference wasn't personality. Wasn't habits. Wasn't work ethic. It was simple: the successful geniuses came from wealthy households. The failures came from poor families. Poverty is such a powerful constraint that it can reduce a one-in-a-billion brain to a lifetime of worse than mediocrity. There's a concept called "capitalization rate." It asks a simple question: what percentage of people who are capable of doing something actually end up doing that thing? In inner city Memphis, only 1 in 6 kids with athletic scholarships actually go to college. If our capitalization rate for sports in the inner city is 16%, imagine how low it must be for everything else. Here's something stranger. Gladwell read the birth dates of the 2007 Czech Junior Hockey Team: January 3rd. January 3rd. January 12th. February 8th. February 10th. February 17th. February 20th. February 24th. March 5th. March 10th. March 26th... 11 of the 20 players were born in January, February, or March. This isn't unique to the Czechs. Every elite hockey team in the world shows the same pattern. Every elite soccer team too. Why? The eligibility cutoff for youth leagues is January 1st. When you're 10 years old, a kid born in January has 10 months of maturity on a kid born in October. That's 3 or 4 inches of height. The difference between clumsy and coordinated. So we look at a group of 10 year olds, pick the "best" ones, give them special coaching, extra practice, more games. We think we're identifying talent. We're just identifying the oldest. Then we give the oldest more opportunities, and 10 years later they really are the best. Self-fulfilling prophecy. The capitalization rate for hockey talent born in the second half of the year? Close to zero. We're leaving half of all potential hockey players on the table because of an arbitrary date on a calendar. Kids born in the youngest cohort of their school class are 11% less likely to go to college. 11% of human potential squandered because we organize elementary school without reference to biological maturity. Now here's the part about math. Asian kids dramatically outperform Western kids in mathematics. The gap is enormous and consistent across decades of testing. Some people say it's genetic. It's not. It's attitudinal. When Asian kids face a math problem, they believe effort will solve it. When Western kids face a math problem, they believe the answer depends on innate ability they either have or don't. Here's the proof. The international math tests include a 120-question survey. It asks about study habits, parental support, attitudes. It's so long most kids don't finish it. A researcher named Erling Boe decided to rank countries by what percentage of survey questions their kids completed. Then he compared it to the ranking of countries by math performance. The correlation was 0.98. In the history of social science, there has never been a correlation that high. If you want to know how good a country is at math, you don't need to ask any math questions. Just make kids sit down and focus on a task for an extended period of time. If they can do it, they're good at math. Why do Asian cultures have this attitude? Gladwell's theory: rice farming. His European ancestors in medieval England worked about 1,000 hours a year. Dawn to noon, five days a week. Winters off. Lots of holidays. A peasant in South China or Japan in the same period worked 3,000 hours a year. Rice farming isn't just harder than wheat farming. It's a completely different relationship with work. There's a Chinese proverb: "A man who works dawn to dusk 360 days a year will not go hungry." His English ancestors would have said: "A man who works 175 days a year, dawn to 11, may or may not be hungry." If your culture does that for a thousand years, it becomes part of your makeup. When your kids sit down to face a calculus problem, that legacy of persistence translates perfectly. Now consider distance running. In Kenya, there are roughly a million schoolboys between 10 and 17 running 10 to 12 miles a day. In the United States, that number is probably 5,000. Our capitalization rate for distance running is less than 1%. Kenya's is probably 95%. The difference isn't genetic. The difference is what the culture values and where it spends its attention. Here's the most fascinating finding. 30% of American entrepreneurs have been diagnosed with a profound learning disability. Richard Branson is dyslexic. Charles Schwab is dyslexic. John Chambers can barely read his own email. This isn't coincidence. Their entrepreneurialism is a direct function of their disability. How do you succeed if you can't read or write from early childhood? You learn to delegate. You become a great oral communicator. You become a problem solver because your entire life is one big problem. You learn to lead. 80% of dyslexic entrepreneurs were captain of a high school sports team. Versus 30% of non-dyslexic entrepreneurs. By the time they enter the real world, they've spent their whole life practicing the four skills at the core of entrepreneurial success: delegation, oral communication, problem solving, and leadership. Ask them what role dyslexia played in their success and they don't say it was an obstacle. They say it's the reason they succeeded. A disadvantage that became an advantage. Here's what Gladwell wants you to understand: When we see differences in success, our default explanation is differences in ability. We forget how much poverty, stupidity, and attitude constrain what people can become. We refuse to admit that our own arbitrary rules are leaving talent on the table. We cling to naive beliefs that our meritocracies are fair. The capitalization argument is liberating. It says you don't look at a struggling group and conclude they're incapable. It says problems that look genetic or innate are often just failures of exploitation. It says we can make a profound difference in how well people turn out. If we choose to pay attention. This 60 minute Microsoft talk will teach you more about success than every self-help book you've ever read combined. Bookmark this & give it an hour today, no matter what.
1:14:47

In the 1920s, a Stanford psychologist tracked genius children for 50 years. Malcolm Gladwell breaks down what he discovered: Rich families → successful. Poor families → failures. Not average. Failures. Genius-level IQs that produced nothing. He spent 60 minutes at Microsoft explaining why we're wrong about success: The psychologist was named Terman. He gave IQ tests to 250,000 California schoolchildren. He identified the top 0.1%. Kids with IQs of 140 and above. His hypothesis: these children would become the leaders of academia, industry, and politics. He tracked them. And tracked them. For decades. The results split into three groups. The top 15% achieved real prominence. The middle group had average, moderately successful professional lives. And the bottom group? By any measure, failures. The difference wasn't personality. Wasn't habits. Wasn't work ethic. It was simple: the successful geniuses came from wealthy households. The failures came from poor families. Poverty is such a powerful constraint that it can reduce a one-in-a-billion brain to a lifetime of worse than mediocrity. There's a concept called "capitalization rate." It asks a simple question: what percentage of people who are capable of doing something actually end up doing that thing? In inner city Memphis, only 1 in 6 kids with athletic scholarships actually go to college. If our capitalization rate for sports in the inner city is 16%, imagine how low it must be for everything else. Here's something stranger. Gladwell read the birth dates of the 2007 Czech Junior Hockey Team: January 3rd. January 3rd. January 12th. February 8th. February 10th. February 17th. February 20th. February 24th. March 5th. March 10th. March 26th... 11 of the 20 players were born in January, February, or March. This isn't unique to the Czechs. Every elite hockey team in the world shows the same pattern. Every elite soccer team too. Why? The eligibility cutoff for youth leagues is January 1st. When you're 10 years old, a kid born in January has 10 months of maturity on a kid born in October. That's 3 or 4 inches of height. The difference between clumsy and coordinated. So we look at a group of 10 year olds, pick the "best" ones, give them special coaching, extra practice, more games. We think we're identifying talent. We're just identifying the oldest. Then we give the oldest more opportunities, and 10 years later they really are the best. Self-fulfilling prophecy. The capitalization rate for hockey talent born in the second half of the year? Close to zero. We're leaving half of all potential hockey players on the table because of an arbitrary date on a calendar. Kids born in the youngest cohort of their school class are 11% less likely to go to college. 11% of human potential squandered because we organize elementary school without reference to biological maturity. Now here's the part about math. Asian kids dramatically outperform Western kids in mathematics. The gap is enormous and consistent across decades of testing. Some people say it's genetic. It's not. It's attitudinal. When Asian kids face a math problem, they believe effort will solve it. When Western kids face a math problem, they believe the answer depends on innate ability they either have or don't. Here's the proof. The international math tests include a 120-question survey. It asks about study habits, parental support, attitudes. It's so long most kids don't finish it. A researcher named Erling Boe decided to rank countries by what percentage of survey questions their kids completed. Then he compared it to the ranking of countries by math performance. The correlation was 0.98. In the history of social science, there has never been a correlation that high. If you want to know how good a country is at math, you don't need to ask any math questions. Just make kids sit down and focus on a task for an extended period of time. If they can do it, they're good at math. Why do Asian cultures have this attitude? Gladwell's theory: rice farming. His European ancestors in medieval England worked about 1,000 hours a year. Dawn to noon, five days a week. Winters off. Lots of holidays. A peasant in South China or Japan in the same period worked 3,000 hours a year. Rice farming isn't just harder than wheat farming. It's a completely different relationship with work. There's a Chinese proverb: "A man who works dawn to dusk 360 days a year will not go hungry." His English ancestors would have said: "A man who works 175 days a year, dawn to 11, may or may not be hungry." If your culture does that for a thousand years, it becomes part of your makeup. When your kids sit down to face a calculus problem, that legacy of persistence translates perfectly. Now consider distance running. In Kenya, there are roughly a million schoolboys between 10 and 17 running 10 to 12 miles a day. In the United States, that number is probably 5,000. Our capitalization rate for distance running is less than 1%. Kenya's is probably 95%. The difference isn't genetic. The difference is what the culture values and where it spends its attention. Here's the most fascinating finding. 30% of American entrepreneurs have been diagnosed with a profound learning disability. Richard Branson is dyslexic. Charles Schwab is dyslexic. John Chambers can barely read his own email. This isn't coincidence. Their entrepreneurialism is a direct function of their disability. How do you succeed if you can't read or write from early childhood? You learn to delegate. You become a great oral communicator. You become a problem solver because your entire life is one big problem. You learn to lead. 80% of dyslexic entrepreneurs were captain of a high school sports team. Versus 30% of non-dyslexic entrepreneurs. By the time they enter the real world, they've spent their whole life practicing the four skills at the core of entrepreneurial success: delegation, oral communication, problem solving, and leadership. Ask them what role dyslexia played in their success and they don't say it was an obstacle. They say it's the reason they succeeded. A disadvantage that became an advantage. Here's what Gladwell wants you to understand: When we see differences in success, our default explanation is differences in ability. We forget how much poverty, stupidity, and attitude constrain what people can become. We refuse to admit that our own arbitrary rules are leaving talent on the table. We cling to naive beliefs that our meritocracies are fair. The capitalization argument is liberating. It says you don't look at a struggling group and conclude they're incapable. It says problems that look genetic or innate are often just failures of exploitation. It says we can make a profound difference in how well people turn out. If we choose to pay attention. This 60 minute Microsoft talk will teach you more about success than every self-help book you've ever read combined. Bookmark this & give it an hour today, no matter what.

Jaynit

1,586,821 次观看 • 4 个月前

BEARISH ON OPENAI The investment case for OpenAI has never been more precarious than it is right now in late 2025. What was once a company that seemed destined to dominate the artificial intelligence revolution has revealed itself to be a structurally disadvantaged challenger fighting a defensive war on multiple fronts. The company anticipates burning through roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn rate of approximately 70% of revenue. This is not the profile of a company poised to capture monopolistic profits from a transformative technology; it is the profile of a utility company spending astronomical sums to deliver a commodity product that competitors are increasingly giving away for free. The financial trajectory only becomes more alarming when examined over a longer time horizon. The documents show OpenAI projects that by 2028, its operating losses will balloon to roughly three-quarters of that year’s revenue, driven primarily by ballooning spending on computing costs. The company has painted a rosy picture of eventual profitability by 2029 or 2030, but this projection requires believing that OpenAI can grow revenue from roughly $13 billion today to $125 billion or more while simultaneously maintaining pricing power in a market where every major technology company and numerous startups are racing to commoditize the very product OpenAI sells. The cash burn is expected to reach $115 billion cumulatively through 2029, according to The Information. These numbers represent a staggering bet that requires near-perfect execution across multiple dimensions over half a decade. The most damning evidence against OpenAI’s long-term viability is the evaporation of its technological moat. In 2023, GPT-4 felt like genuine magic, a capability that no other company could replicate. Today, that lead has effectively vanished. The sudden availability of frontier-level open-source models is expected to dramatically accelerate AI development globally, potentially reshaping entire industries and altering the balance of power in the tech world. Meta’s Llama series, Mistral’s increasingly capable models, and even Chinese competitors like DeepSeek have demonstrated that the core technology powering ChatGPT is replicable and, in many cases, distributable for free. When your product becomes commoditized, the economics become brutal, and OpenAI finds itself in the position of trying to sell bottled water in a world where tap water has become indistinguishable in quality. The competitive pressure from open-source alternatives is compounding rapidly. The open source movement in AI has grown exponentially over the past few years. Instead of relying solely on expensive, closed models from major tech companies, developers and researchers worldwide can now access, modify, and improve upon state-of-the-art LLMs. This democratization is existential for OpenAI’s business model. Enterprises that once paid premium prices for API access now have the option to run comparable models on their own infrastructure at a fraction of the cost, with the added benefits of data privacy and customization. The value proposition that justified OpenAI’s premium pricing has eroded faster than anyone anticipated, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse. Perhaps nothing illustrates OpenAI’s structural weakness more clearly than the behavior of its most important partner. Microsoft is dancing to its own tune in the artificial intelligence revolution, and Wall Street cannot stop watching. Despite pouring approximately $13 billion into OpenAI over several years, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria estimates that just 17 percent of Microsoft’s total Azure revenue comes from artificial intelligence workloads. More critically, only 6 percent of that total ties directly to reselling OpenAI’s models, while approximately 75 percent is generated from Azure AI. Microsoft is building its own models, hedging with Anthropic, and quietly reducing its dependency on the very company it funded. When your largest investor is simultaneously your biggest competitor and is actively developing alternatives to your core product, the strategic implications are dire. Leaders at Microsoft believe Anthropic’s latest models — Claude Sonnet 4, specifically — perform better than OpenAI’s in certain functions, like creating aesthetically pleasing PowerPoint presentations. This is not a minor technical preference; it represents a fundamental shift in how Microsoft views its partnership with OpenAI. Microsoft is dramatically escalating its AI independence strategy. At an internal town hall Thursday, Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman revealed the company is making “significant investments” in compute capacity to build frontier models that can compete directly with OpenAI, Google, and Meta. The company that was supposed to be OpenAI’s path to distribution and scale is instead preparing for a future where OpenAI is just one vendor among many, if not an outright competitor. The leadership exodus at OpenAI over the past year has been nothing short of catastrophic. In September 2024, Murati announced that she was stepping down as CTO. This move came amid a wider executive exodus as OpenAI chief research officer Bob McGrew and a vice president of research, Barret Zoph, also announced their departures soon after. Mira Murati was not a minor figure; she was instrumental in the development of ChatGPT, Dall-E, and Sora. Her departure, along with co-founder Ilya Sutskever, safety leader Jan Leike, and co-founder John Schulman who joined rival Anthropic, has left CEO Sam Altman without much of the leadership team that helped him build OpenAI into an AI juggernaut. Hannah Wong, the executive who steered OpenAI through its most chaotic period, has announced she’s leaving the company just this month, continuing the pattern of senior departures that suggests something fundamentally broken in the organization’s culture or direction. The distribution problem facing OpenAI may be its most insurmountable challenge. Apple and Google control the smartphones that billions of people use every day. Microsoft controls the productivity software that enterprises depend upon. OpenAI, by contrast, must convince users to deliberately open a separate application and type their queries into a text box. In a world of agentic AI where assistants need access to your email, calendar, and files to be useful, an AI embedded directly into your operating system has an overwhelming structural advantage over a standalone chatbot. OpenAI is trying to be a consumer product company without owning any of the surfaces where consumers actually spend their time, competing against incumbents who can simply bundle AI capabilities directly into products that already have hundreds of millions of daily active users. The nuclear-to-solar analogy captures the fundamental economic transformation that is devastating OpenAI’s business model. Just as nuclear power required enormous upfront capital expenditure for centralized power plants, AI in its current form requires massive data center investments to train and serve models. But the direction of travel is unmistakably toward distributed intelligence that runs locally on devices. A major part of the pitch is practicality. Lample emphasizes that Ministral 3 can run on a single GPU, making it deployable on affordable hardware — from on-premise servers to laptops, robots, and other edge devices that may have limited connectivity. When powerful AI models can run on a smartphone or a laptop without any cloud connection, the entire economic rationale for paying premium prices to access centralized AI infrastructure disappears. OpenAI is building nuclear reactors in a world that is rapidly installing solar panels on every rooftop. The proposed $1 trillion IPO valuation is perhaps the clearest signal that something is deeply wrong with the OpenAI story. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. Asking public market investors to pay $1 trillion for a company that loses more than twice as much as it earns is not a growth story; it is an exit strategy. The sophisticated investors who funded OpenAI’s private rounds are looking for a way to transfer their risk to retail investors and pension funds who may not fully understand the unit economics of the business. A recent report by HSBC estimated that the company will remain in the unprofitable category until 2029 and that the company will need an additional $207 billion to fund its ambitions. Sam Altman’s leadership represents another structural liability for the company. His background is as a startup investor and evangelist, not as an operational executive who has scaled a capital-intensive industrial operation. The pivot from nonprofit research lab to for-profit corporation to public benefit corporation to anticipated public company has been accompanied by legal and governance structures designed primarily to protect Altman’s control rather than to create shareholder value. Going public means answering a lot more of those kinds of questions, every single quarter, forever. When asked about financial concerns in a friendly podcast interview, Altman’s dismissive response revealed a leader uncomfortable with the scrutiny that public markets will inevitably bring. The adults in the room have largely departed, leaving a company that desperately needs disciplined execution led by someone whose strengths lie elsewhere. The comparison to Netscape is instructive. Netscape proved that the internet was real and created genuine value, but it had no sustainable moat against an incumbent who could bundle the browser directly into the operating system. OpenAI has proven that large language models are real and valuable, but it faces the same structural disadvantage against incumbents who can bundle AI directly into operating systems, productivity suites, and cloud platforms. The value will accrue to the companies that own the distribution channels and the hardware, not to the company that demonstrated the technology was possible. OpenAI is destined to become a historical footnote, remembered as the company that ignited the AI revolution but failed to capture the economic value it created. The only bull case for OpenAI is the AGI lottery ticket: the possibility that the company achieves artificial general intelligence before anyone else and thereby transcends all normal economic analysis. But there is no evidence that OpenAI is any closer to AGI than Google, Anthropic, or DeepMind. The company’s advantage was never secret research breakthroughs; it was first-mover advantage in commercialization. That advantage has now been erased by competitors who can match or exceed OpenAI’s capabilities while benefiting from existing ecosystems, distribution channels, and the willingness to operate AI as a loss leader to drive engagement with more profitable products. The secret sauce was never secret, and there was never any sauce. The endgame for OpenAI is unlikely to be the triumphant dominance that early investors imagined. The most probable outcomes range from gradual irrelevance as a backend provider, to financial restructuring under pressure from creditors, to absorption by Microsoft or another well-capitalized technology company looking to acquire the remaining talent and intellectual property at a discount. Despite its current losses, OpenAI’s long-term prospects are bolstered by the explosive growth of the AI market. But growth in the overall AI market does not guarantee success for any individual company, particularly one with no moat, no ecosystem, and a cost structure that requires selling a commodity at premium prices. The AI revolution is real, but OpenAI’s role in capturing its economic value is far from assured. For anyone considering an investment in OpenAI at anything close to current valuations, the prudent course is to stay far away and watch from the sidelines as economic reality catches up with hype.
19:01

BEARISH ON OPENAI The investment case for OpenAI has never been more precarious than it is right now in late 2025. What was once a company that seemed destined to dominate the artificial intelligence revolution has revealed itself to be a structurally disadvantaged challenger fighting a defensive war on multiple fronts. The company anticipates burning through roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn rate of approximately 70% of revenue. This is not the profile of a company poised to capture monopolistic profits from a transformative technology; it is the profile of a utility company spending astronomical sums to deliver a commodity product that competitors are increasingly giving away for free. The financial trajectory only becomes more alarming when examined over a longer time horizon. The documents show OpenAI projects that by 2028, its operating losses will balloon to roughly three-quarters of that year’s revenue, driven primarily by ballooning spending on computing costs. The company has painted a rosy picture of eventual profitability by 2029 or 2030, but this projection requires believing that OpenAI can grow revenue from roughly $13 billion today to $125 billion or more while simultaneously maintaining pricing power in a market where every major technology company and numerous startups are racing to commoditize the very product OpenAI sells. The cash burn is expected to reach $115 billion cumulatively through 2029, according to The Information. These numbers represent a staggering bet that requires near-perfect execution across multiple dimensions over half a decade. The most damning evidence against OpenAI’s long-term viability is the evaporation of its technological moat. In 2023, GPT-4 felt like genuine magic, a capability that no other company could replicate. Today, that lead has effectively vanished. The sudden availability of frontier-level open-source models is expected to dramatically accelerate AI development globally, potentially reshaping entire industries and altering the balance of power in the tech world. Meta’s Llama series, Mistral’s increasingly capable models, and even Chinese competitors like DeepSeek have demonstrated that the core technology powering ChatGPT is replicable and, in many cases, distributable for free. When your product becomes commoditized, the economics become brutal, and OpenAI finds itself in the position of trying to sell bottled water in a world where tap water has become indistinguishable in quality. The competitive pressure from open-source alternatives is compounding rapidly. The open source movement in AI has grown exponentially over the past few years. Instead of relying solely on expensive, closed models from major tech companies, developers and researchers worldwide can now access, modify, and improve upon state-of-the-art LLMs. This democratization is existential for OpenAI’s business model. Enterprises that once paid premium prices for API access now have the option to run comparable models on their own infrastructure at a fraction of the cost, with the added benefits of data privacy and customization. The value proposition that justified OpenAI’s premium pricing has eroded faster than anyone anticipated, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse. Perhaps nothing illustrates OpenAI’s structural weakness more clearly than the behavior of its most important partner. Microsoft is dancing to its own tune in the artificial intelligence revolution, and Wall Street cannot stop watching. Despite pouring approximately $13 billion into OpenAI over several years, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria estimates that just 17 percent of Microsoft’s total Azure revenue comes from artificial intelligence workloads. More critically, only 6 percent of that total ties directly to reselling OpenAI’s models, while approximately 75 percent is generated from Azure AI. Microsoft is building its own models, hedging with Anthropic, and quietly reducing its dependency on the very company it funded. When your largest investor is simultaneously your biggest competitor and is actively developing alternatives to your core product, the strategic implications are dire. Leaders at Microsoft believe Anthropic’s latest models — Claude Sonnet 4, specifically — perform better than OpenAI’s in certain functions, like creating aesthetically pleasing PowerPoint presentations. This is not a minor technical preference; it represents a fundamental shift in how Microsoft views its partnership with OpenAI. Microsoft is dramatically escalating its AI independence strategy. At an internal town hall Thursday, Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman revealed the company is making “significant investments” in compute capacity to build frontier models that can compete directly with OpenAI, Google, and Meta. The company that was supposed to be OpenAI’s path to distribution and scale is instead preparing for a future where OpenAI is just one vendor among many, if not an outright competitor. The leadership exodus at OpenAI over the past year has been nothing short of catastrophic. In September 2024, Murati announced that she was stepping down as CTO. This move came amid a wider executive exodus as OpenAI chief research officer Bob McGrew and a vice president of research, Barret Zoph, also announced their departures soon after. Mira Murati was not a minor figure; she was instrumental in the development of ChatGPT, Dall-E, and Sora. Her departure, along with co-founder Ilya Sutskever, safety leader Jan Leike, and co-founder John Schulman who joined rival Anthropic, has left CEO Sam Altman without much of the leadership team that helped him build OpenAI into an AI juggernaut. Hannah Wong, the executive who steered OpenAI through its most chaotic period, has announced she’s leaving the company just this month, continuing the pattern of senior departures that suggests something fundamentally broken in the organization’s culture or direction. The distribution problem facing OpenAI may be its most insurmountable challenge. Apple and Google control the smartphones that billions of people use every day. Microsoft controls the productivity software that enterprises depend upon. OpenAI, by contrast, must convince users to deliberately open a separate application and type their queries into a text box. In a world of agentic AI where assistants need access to your email, calendar, and files to be useful, an AI embedded directly into your operating system has an overwhelming structural advantage over a standalone chatbot. OpenAI is trying to be a consumer product company without owning any of the surfaces where consumers actually spend their time, competing against incumbents who can simply bundle AI capabilities directly into products that already have hundreds of millions of daily active users. The nuclear-to-solar analogy captures the fundamental economic transformation that is devastating OpenAI’s business model. Just as nuclear power required enormous upfront capital expenditure for centralized power plants, AI in its current form requires massive data center investments to train and serve models. But the direction of travel is unmistakably toward distributed intelligence that runs locally on devices. A major part of the pitch is practicality. Lample emphasizes that Ministral 3 can run on a single GPU, making it deployable on affordable hardware — from on-premise servers to laptops, robots, and other edge devices that may have limited connectivity. When powerful AI models can run on a smartphone or a laptop without any cloud connection, the entire economic rationale for paying premium prices to access centralized AI infrastructure disappears. OpenAI is building nuclear reactors in a world that is rapidly installing solar panels on every rooftop. The proposed $1 trillion IPO valuation is perhaps the clearest signal that something is deeply wrong with the OpenAI story. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. Asking public market investors to pay $1 trillion for a company that loses more than twice as much as it earns is not a growth story; it is an exit strategy. The sophisticated investors who funded OpenAI’s private rounds are looking for a way to transfer their risk to retail investors and pension funds who may not fully understand the unit economics of the business. A recent report by HSBC estimated that the company will remain in the unprofitable category until 2029 and that the company will need an additional $207 billion to fund its ambitions. Sam Altman’s leadership represents another structural liability for the company. His background is as a startup investor and evangelist, not as an operational executive who has scaled a capital-intensive industrial operation. The pivot from nonprofit research lab to for-profit corporation to public benefit corporation to anticipated public company has been accompanied by legal and governance structures designed primarily to protect Altman’s control rather than to create shareholder value. Going public means answering a lot more of those kinds of questions, every single quarter, forever. When asked about financial concerns in a friendly podcast interview, Altman’s dismissive response revealed a leader uncomfortable with the scrutiny that public markets will inevitably bring. The adults in the room have largely departed, leaving a company that desperately needs disciplined execution led by someone whose strengths lie elsewhere. The comparison to Netscape is instructive. Netscape proved that the internet was real and created genuine value, but it had no sustainable moat against an incumbent who could bundle the browser directly into the operating system. OpenAI has proven that large language models are real and valuable, but it faces the same structural disadvantage against incumbents who can bundle AI directly into operating systems, productivity suites, and cloud platforms. The value will accrue to the companies that own the distribution channels and the hardware, not to the company that demonstrated the technology was possible. OpenAI is destined to become a historical footnote, remembered as the company that ignited the AI revolution but failed to capture the economic value it created. The only bull case for OpenAI is the AGI lottery ticket: the possibility that the company achieves artificial general intelligence before anyone else and thereby transcends all normal economic analysis. But there is no evidence that OpenAI is any closer to AGI than Google, Anthropic, or DeepMind. The company’s advantage was never secret research breakthroughs; it was first-mover advantage in commercialization. That advantage has now been erased by competitors who can match or exceed OpenAI’s capabilities while benefiting from existing ecosystems, distribution channels, and the willingness to operate AI as a loss leader to drive engagement with more profitable products. The secret sauce was never secret, and there was never any sauce. The endgame for OpenAI is unlikely to be the triumphant dominance that early investors imagined. The most probable outcomes range from gradual irrelevance as a backend provider, to financial restructuring under pressure from creditors, to absorption by Microsoft or another well-capitalized technology company looking to acquire the remaining talent and intellectual property at a discount. Despite its current losses, OpenAI’s long-term prospects are bolstered by the explosive growth of the AI market. But growth in the overall AI market does not guarantee success for any individual company, particularly one with no moat, no ecosystem, and a cost structure that requires selling a commodity at premium prices. The AI revolution is real, but OpenAI’s role in capturing its economic value is far from assured. For anyone considering an investment in OpenAI at anything close to current valuations, the prudent course is to stay far away and watch from the sidelines as economic reality catches up with hype.

David Shapiro (L/0)

69,180 次观看 • 8 个月前