Costco $COST is flashing a recession signal and its chart has started to roll over in recent months. It's tracking Walmart $WMT, another retail bellwether down 6% over the last month. Jared Dillian sees both as warning signs of an economic slowdown.

@dailydirtnap If consumers are supposed to be trading down, seeing $COST and $WMT roll together definitely rattles the defensive safety trade. Hard to ignore retail bellwethers breaking down like this

@dailydirtnap The dot-com parallel cuts the other way: in 2000 the consumer held long after tech rolled over. If AI capex cracks, retail confirms late. I wouldn't front-run that trade with COST.

@dailydirtnap The Costco indicator is underrated. Consumers trading down while AI capex keeps climbing looks a lot like the 1999 fiber buildout to me. Fintech hiring will feel this first.

@dailydirtnap It’s been at stall speed for more than a year

@dailydirtnap I wouldn't bother to spit on dirtnaps advice.

@dailydirtnap Thanks for highlighting strong semiconductor opportunities. Your posts and @danjkelley1966’s are always useful. $TSM