Crimea blockade — the beginning of its liberation? Ukraine is systematically destroying the logistics connecting Crimea with Russia and the occupied territories. In recent days alone, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have repeatedly struck the Chongar area, railway lines, and the “Novorossiya” highway. According to some Ukrainian military experts,... the goal of these attacks is not an assault on the peninsula, but a gradual isolation of the Russian grouping. Analysts compare the situation to Kherson in autumn 2022. Back then, after damage to the Antonivskyi Bridge, Russian supply lines came under threat, eventually forcing a withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro. A similar scenario may now be developing for Crimea: the harder it becomes to deliver fuel, ammunition, water, and food, the more difficult it is to maintain a large occupying force. Fuel sales restrictions have already been introduced on the peninsula. There are reports of queues at the Kerch Bridge exit and mass cancellations of tourist bookings. The holiday season has started poorly, despite being the main source of income for locals. At the same time, most analysts consider a large-scale Ukrainian landing in Crimea unlikely, calling it highly risky and unlikely to succeed. A more realistic scenario, they say, is continued pressure on transport infrastructure and a gradual weakening of Russian positions in southern Ukraine. Ukraine’s priority remains not Crimea itself, but the liberation of parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. If that succeeds, the peninsula would become highly vulnerable, and Russia would find it increasingly difficult to hold it.show more

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