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Current S&P earnings growth rates look like post-recession numbers, driven by easier year-over-year comparisons. But 2026 EPS is expected to grow 24%, moderating to 10 to 16% in the following years. That kind of expansion only works if AI efficiency delivers what companies are pricing in.

12,389 次观看 • 28 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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This is the biggest irony in tech history. Microsoft beat revenue estimates. Stock plunged 11%, wiped out $400 BILLION in market cap. Salesforce reported growth. Stock fell 5.6%. ServiceNow beat earnings. Stock crashed 11%. SAP beat projections. Stock dropped 16%. Entire software sector entered bear market territory. Down 22% from peak. These are the companies everyone said would WIN from AI. They spent billions BUYING AI companies. ServiceNow: $7.75 billion for Armis. Salesforce: $8 billion for Informatica. They launched AI products. Built AI workflows. Hired AI teams. And the market said: You're all dead. Because investors just realized something nobody wanted to admit: AI doesn't make software companies stronger. AI makes software companies OBSOLETE. Morgan Stanley: "In an environment of heightened investor skepticism, stable growth falls short of shifting the narrative." Good earnings aren't enough anymore. The market is pricing in a world where AI replaces the software these companies sell. ServiceNow CEO tried defending on the earnings call: "AI needs workflow orchestration. ServiceNow is the gateway to this shift." Market response: 11% crash. Because here's what he didn't say: If AI can write code, automate workflows, and generate apps at a fraction of the cost, why would anyone pay $50,000 per year for enterprise software licenses? The per-seat pricing model that made SaaS companies rich is getting murdered by AI efficiency. One AI agent replaces 10 seats. One prompt replaces months of custom development. One LLM call replaces entire software categories. Klarna already proved it. CEO said they pulled Salesforce out of their stack. Built everything themselves using AI. And that's just the beginning. The software apocalypse hit hardest on companies that INVESTED IN AI: Atlassian: down 12.6% Intuit: down 7.8% HubSpot: down 11.5% Zscaler: down 6.3% Meanwhile, the companies ENABLING AI made money: Nvidia: up Semiconductor stocks: surging Memory firms: rallying The divide is brutal. Hardware companies print cash. Software companies get destroyed. Because in an AI-first world, you need GPUs to build the models. But you don't need software subscriptions when the AI builds the software for you. Jim Cramer called it the "P/E multiple compression crisis." Translation: Investors don't care about earnings anymore. They care about whether your business model survives the next 5 years. And right now software business models look doomed. They're literally stuck: If they DON'T invest in AI, they fall behind. If they DO invest in AI, they cannibalize their own products. It's a death spiral with no exit. ServiceNow spent $12 BILLION on acquisitions in 2025 alone. Trying to buy their way into relevance. And yesterday the market cooked them. The craziest thing to me tho... Most software companies beat earnings. Revenue was solid. Growth was fine. But it didn't matter. Because the market stopped pricing software on what it earns TODAY. It's pricing software on what it's worth in a world where AI does the job for free. And in that world these companies are worth nothing. This is the biggest sector repricing since 2008. $500 billion in market value gone in ONE DAY. And it's not stopping. Because every company watching this is thinking the same thing: "If I can replace ServiceNow with 3 AI agents and save $10 million per year, why wouldn't I?" The answer used to be: "Because you need enterprise-grade reliability." But now? AI agents are getting reliable. Fast. Software companies just realized they're competing with open-source models that cost $0.02 per 1,000 tokens. You can't win a pricing war against free. The companies that spent BILLIONS preparing for AI are getting killed BY AI. What an irony.

Ricardo

1,814,969 次观看 • 6 个月前

The next Mag 7 may still be private: "All of us in this room would probably think of.. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Revolut, Databricks.” “If you're going to outperform the index over a long period of time, you're going to need exposure to these companies.” Thomas Laffont, Coatue COATUE coatue.thomas Upfront Ventures "Regardless, if you think about the innovation of these late-stage private companies—or one thing we kind of look at is the Mag 7, which has been a significant driver of returns in the public market over the past few years—has essentially kind of been flat over the past year-ish. And that's because Microsoft, as an example, I think has lost almost a trillion dollars of value over that timeframe as people are questioning their positioning kind of in AI. So then that leads you to think, “Well, what would the next Mag 7 look like?” Or who would be other candidates to kind of fit into the index of the future? And I think the names that all of us in this room would probably think of are names like SpaceX, or names like OpenAI, Anthropic, Revolut, Databricks. So I do think it's a really important class of companies. I do think if you're going to want to outperform the index over a long period of time, you're going to need exposure to these companies. Some of them will probably go public in the next 12 to 24 months, so that'll be kind of one impact of it. But it is unbelievable the amount of innovation that is now coming from this group of companies."

Molly O’Shea

15,258 次观看 • 5 个月前

Qullamaggie on Track and Trade Stocks With Triple Digit EPS and Revenue Growth “This EXPI has triple-digit EPS and revenue, bro. It’s going straight up. This is what happens, guys. This is why you should keep track of all of these high-growth stocks with momentum, okay? They need to be in a watchlist. You need to keep track of this. This thing is up 1000% in like eight months or something. Another one is FUTU, okay? Another one, triple-digit EPS and revenue growth. Look at this thing; it’s up like what? Also, 1000% in like eight, nine months, ten months. If you’re looking for an edge, one place to start is tracking stocks that have triple-digit EPS and revenue growth. Just a hint. TIGR too, another one. China brokerage, yeah. Triple digit since March lows. This thing is up 600%. I mean, earnings are fuel, okay? I mean, you have these random pump stocks that can make big moves with no reason really other than, you know, chat rooms and forums are pumping these. But earnings that’s fuel, okay? It’s like rocket fuel—triple-digit EPS and revenue growth. It’s like rocket fuel; it gives stocks a reason to go up. One way to trade - you don’t even need to do any scans. Just build a watch list of the fifty or thirty fastest-growing stocks in the stock market, like everything just, you know everything. They don’t necessarily have to be like triple-digit EPS and revenue growth, but everything is that say fifty percent like mid-high double-digit EPS. Revenue growth or higher, keep them in a watch list. The top say 50 ones, and just look for setups on those stocks, and you’re gonna outperform the market by a wide margin. Year after year, you don’t need to do any scans at all. You just keep track of that one watchlist with fifty stocks and just look for good setups on those among those. That’s all you need to do to get a big edge. Now you’re not gonna outperform like every market rally because in some markets cyclicals lead or beaten down stocks lead. But if you only trade the fastest growing stocks, you probably gonna do very well year after year after year. No rocket science involved; you don’t need any fancy indicators. You don’t need someone on TV to tell you this or that because you already know what works in the stock market.”

Lone

13,857 次观看 • 5 个月前