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Dan Wang (Dan Wang) says that America should become 20% more engineering-minded to fix its broken infrastructure, while China needs to be 50% more lawyerly so the Communist Party will stop strangling individual rights and the creative impulses of its people. But would a more lawyerly China constrain state... power, or just create new tools for oppression? And, asks tylercowen insouciantly, aren’t the American suburbs actually sterling achievements where the infrastructure works quite well? 0:00:00 - American infrastructure and suburban life 0:05:18 - American vs. Chinese infrastructure buildouts... 0:12:25 - And health care investment 0:17:52 - Chinese suburbs 0:20:10 - The existing lawyerly influence in East Asia 0:25:12 - China’s lack of a liberal tradition 0:29:35 - Why China’s won’t democratize 0:33:49 - China’s economic disfunction 0:38:44 - China’s expansionism 0:41:55 - Chinese pragmatism and bureaucratic incentives 0:46:50 - Chinese cities and regional culture 0:59:44 - James C. Scott, Zomia, and elite culture 1:06:27 - A 10-day Yunnan itinerary 1:11:57 - On Chinese arts, literature, and cultural expression 1:18:23 - The Dan Wang production function 1:30:34 - Tyler’s grand strategy, or lack thereofshow more

Conversations with Tyler

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New episode with Francis Fukuyama (Francis Fukuyama). While The End of History and the Last Man is arguably the most influential work in political science of the past half-century, I wanted to focus on one of Frank's lesser-known books: Our Posthuman Future. In that book, he considers biotech and its potential to usher in a new, post-human history. I check in to see how his views have evolved since it was published (2002), then ask him about AI and its potential to restart "History". The goal was to discuss topics that are important and on which Frank has spoken little until now. Frank also gives me a preview of his forthcoming book, and shares some ideas on delegation and state capacity. (0:00:00) - Introduction. (0:00:41) - Are new biotechnologies restarting History? (0:03:52) - Why Fukuyama thinks life extension is a bad idea. (0:06:47) - Which biotechnology is most likely to drive transhumanism? (0:07:34) - Political orders are downstream of technology. (0:10:31) - Would Fukuyama have denied political rights to Denisovans or Neanderthals? (0:13:56) - Transhumanism and longevity's unintended consequences. (0:18:55) - Assortative mating vs. gene editing. (0:20:00) - How should we adjudicate disagreements between different sets of natural rights? (0:24:03) - How is Fukuyama thinking about AGI and ASI? (0:27:31) - Granting AIs political rights? (0:37:23) - Best political order for a society of non-thymotic AIs? (0:40:44) - Could an ASI design a better political order than liberal democracy for today's world? (0:44:08) - Why Asian cultures are more permissive of biotechnology. (0:47:04) - Do LLMs represent a victory of American soft power in China? (0:49:17) - If humanity is made economically redundant, where will megalothymia be channelled? (0:51:58) - Can Trump and Musk's relationship endure their mutual megalothymia? (0:53:23) - A future without work? Kojève's 1959 trip to Japan, & the early-modern landed gentry. (1:00:41) - Hegel vs. Kojève: wars after history? (1:02:26) - What more would have to happen for China to falsify the end of history thesis? (1:03:39) - What Fukuyama learned from having his thesis chronically misunderstood. (1:06:37) - Fukuyama's advice for public intellectuals who want sustainable careers. (1:08:52) - A sneak peek at Fukuyama's next book. (1:10:32) - Delegation in armies and bureaucracies. (1:15:48) - Why Fukuyama thinks DOGE was misguided. (1:17:53) - The relationship between talent, delegation and state capacity. Watch full episode on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc. Transcript at my website jnwpod dot com. Enjoy!

Joseph Noel Walker

15,483 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

A Quest to Formalize Intelligence ft. ludwig 0:00:00 - INTRO 0:01:06 - What is he most excited about these days 0:03:31 - All arcs are isomorphic, Dropping out in 7th grade 0:09:31 - Does skipping formal education make you naturally broader? 0:10:11 - Growing up on 4chan, Mathematics is humbling 0:14:52 - Mentors, First programming job, Internet microcultures 0:21:47 - Culture in SF, Why he won't start a company 0:25:21 - Does AI make self-teaching easier or trap you in infinite explanations? 0:29:49 - The 20% doing 80% inside a company 0:33:24 - Company culture and Building subcultures 0:35:56 - Define understanding, Compression equals Prediction 0:45:44 - Understanding vs knowing, Michael Levin, Cognitive light cones 0:54:39 - Starting a Research lab, Sheaf theory and Grothendieck 0:58:43 - Mapping Levin's biology onto proof space with MCTS and Lean4 1:02:49 - Active inference, Distributed systems and Morphogenesis 1:12:28 - Signal vs noise on X, The unit distance proof, Flanderization 1:17:39 - Community Questions 1:21:39 - Shape rotator vs wordcel, Tenstorrent, How to hire great engineers 1:28:01 - Building mental space to do things that will be left to do 1:33:42 - Advice to a 20-year-old. Be a capable thinker, you have 20k days left

A Quest to Formalize Intelligence ft. ludwig 0:00:00 - INTRO 0:01:06 - What is he most excited about these days 0:03:31 - All arcs are isomorphic, Dropping out in 7th grade 0:09:31 - Does skipping formal education make you naturally broader? 0:10:11 - Growing up on 4chan, Mathematics is humbling 0:14:52 - Mentors, First programming job, Internet microcultures 0:21:47 - Culture in SF, Why he won't start a company 0:25:21 - Does AI make self-teaching easier or trap you in infinite explanations? 0:29:49 - The 20% doing 80% inside a company 0:33:24 - Company culture and Building subcultures 0:35:56 - Define understanding, Compression equals Prediction 0:45:44 - Understanding vs knowing, Michael Levin, Cognitive light cones 0:54:39 - Starting a Research lab, Sheaf theory and Grothendieck 0:58:43 - Mapping Levin's biology onto proof space with MCTS and Lean4 1:02:49 - Active inference, Distributed systems and Morphogenesis 1:12:28 - Signal vs noise on X, The unit distance proof, Flanderization 1:17:39 - Community Questions 1:21:39 - Shape rotator vs wordcel, Tenstorrent, How to hire great engineers 1:28:01 - Building mental space to do things that will be left to do 1:33:42 - Advice to a 20-year-old. Be a capable thinker, you have 20k days left

himanshu

43,187 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🌄 Beyond SWE: The Future of Long Horizon Environments A discussion with our founders about KellyBench, and the need for new environments that require agents to adapt over time and act under uncertainty. 0:00:17 What is KellyBench? 0:02:10 Openendedness, non-stationarity and continual learning 0:03:40 Analytical versus operational capabilities 0:04:13 Why are models bad at KellyBench? 0:05:39 Situational awareness in dynamic environments 0:06:37 Feature stability and real-world non-stationarity 0:07:07 The power of context 0:07:34 "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself" 0:08:20 Machiavelli, fortuna and the ability to adapt to change 0:09:23 How can models improve on evals like KellyBench? 0:10:12 Limitations of KellyBench: data availability and market odds timing 0:11:44 Implications beyond quant finance / sports betting 0:13:26 Civilisations as the ultimate time horizon 0:14:05 Would a mega prompt / better elicitation do much better on the benchmark? 0:14:52 What new types of capability is GR excited about? 0:17:48 Taste and the ability to pursue long-term goals even if they aren't immediately rewarding 0:18:56 Deep learning as an example of a method that took a long time to bear fruit 0:19:25 Optimism about the future of AI

🌄 Beyond SWE: The Future of Long Horizon Environments A discussion with our founders about KellyBench, and the need for new environments that require agents to adapt over time and act under uncertainty. 0:00:17 What is KellyBench? 0:02:10 Openendedness, non-stationarity and continual learning 0:03:40 Analytical versus operational capabilities 0:04:13 Why are models bad at KellyBench? 0:05:39 Situational awareness in dynamic environments 0:06:37 Feature stability and real-world non-stationarity 0:07:07 The power of context 0:07:34 "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself" 0:08:20 Machiavelli, fortuna and the ability to adapt to change 0:09:23 How can models improve on evals like KellyBench? 0:10:12 Limitations of KellyBench: data availability and market odds timing 0:11:44 Implications beyond quant finance / sports betting 0:13:26 Civilisations as the ultimate time horizon 0:14:05 Would a mega prompt / better elicitation do much better on the benchmark? 0:14:52 What new types of capability is GR excited about? 0:17:48 Taste and the ability to pursue long-term goals even if they aren't immediately rewarding 0:18:56 Deep learning as an example of a method that took a long time to bear fruit 0:19:25 Optimism about the future of AI

General Reasoning

15,585 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten