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Data centers are roughly 30% built versus where they should be by now. The US and China are in a race nobody is allowed to lose. And no single frontier AI lab can be allowed to win... it's too dangerous. Put that together and there is almost no way... show more

Raoul Pal

1,496,523 subscribers

177,851 次观看 • 3 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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32 条评论

Raoul Pal 的头像

Raoul Pal3 天前

The Exponential Age is one of the three pillars of my book, The Everything Code, out Nov 3rd. Preorders are open now:

Filecoin 的头像

Filecoin2 天前

a race no single lab can win deserves data infrastructure no single cloud controls

Bobilicious 的头像

Bobilicious3 天前

Oh good, more Raoul-this-is-a-supercycle-Pal

JT Sather 的头像

JT Sather3 天前

I live in the Yoop, where there is an underground copper mine, long closed, with 25 sq miles of underground space. Would that not be the ideal place to build data mines? There is an underground water source, it stays roughly 50f year round, and would be out of site, out of mind

Rufflife 的头像

Rufflife3 天前

$IREN it's time.

Billeee 的头像

Billeee3 天前

US Data centers are made to sell you shit, Chinas are to technologically advance its society. They are not the same. YT men’s greed has set us on a path that sets our kids back generations.

Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road 的头像

Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road3 天前

@CaitlinLong_ Exactly:

BR89 的头像

BR893 天前

You said the same about Bitcoin supercycle

GOSUN Capital 的头像

GOSUN Capital3 天前

Spot on @RaoulGMI. This Capex scale is a liquidity sinkhole. Funding the remaining 70% of global compute requires massive monetary expansion. Central banks must monetize this buildout, making this the ultimate debasement supercycle.

AGTP 的头像

AGTP3 天前

The scale of this capex cycle is truly unprecedented. We actually went deeper on the record spending numbers here:

AndrewT 的头像

AndrewT2 天前

If this motherfucker says banana zone 1 more time!😂

Early life check certified. 的头像

Early life check certified.3 天前

Its a race to the end.

Ahmed Ibrahim Hamdy 的头像

Ahmed Ibrahim Hamdy3 天前

I just don't know from where the revenue will come that will recover all of those trillions. @dylan2045ad .. I listened to @RaoulGMI a lot over the years but not recently on this A.I. cycle. I keep going back to a major discovery in physics using A.I. that will open up a brand new era for energy and transportation.

Andre William Duval 的头像

Andre William Duval3 天前

It isn't a "capex" problem. It's a race to the apocalypse.

Lucas Martinet 的头像

Lucas Martinet3 天前

I keep coming back to this as a constraint optimization problem: power, cooling, compute, capital… money deploys in quarters, grids take years. My bet: the buildout tracks energy infrastructure, not capex availability.

Lucas Mercado 的头像

Lucas Mercado2 天前

quem paga a conta desse capex

Michael 宝塔镇河妖🧙🏿‍♀️ 的头像

Michael 宝塔镇河妖🧙🏿‍♀️3 天前

my power bill says this supercycle is real

Quantview 的头像

Quantview3 天前

The data-center supercycle requires power availability and utilization to grow alongside installed capacity. Falling rental rates or delayed grid connections would expose overbuilding before headline capex peaks. #ZoneTrendPRO

TonyEcho (WATER) 的头像

TonyEcho (WATER)3 天前

😅😅🤣🤣🤣

lvnbbs_bnb 🐬TermMax 的头像

lvnbbs_bnb 🐬TermMax3 天前

if bottlenecks are the fuel for more capex then we are in for a generational grind higher

Raymon 的头像

Raymon3 天前

bottlenecks are just the fuel

Asim Khan 的头像

Asim Khan3 天前

No single lab can win and no country can afford to lose. That tension alone guarantees the spend.

Anh Kèo 的头像

Anh Kèo3 天前

nếu là siêu chu kỳ thì kèo nào ăn đậm nhất từ capex này vậy anh @RaoulGMI

Macro Bombastic 的头像

Macro Bombastic3 天前

yeah but the real bottleneck is energy politics, not compute tbh

TonyEcho (WATER) 的头像

TonyEcho (WATER)3 天前

This is all just a Game leading to nowhere

James Green 的头像

James Green2 天前

Put them in the Cayman Islands next to your home.

Luc Volders 的头像

Luc Volders2 天前

@grok wat bedoeld hij in gewone mensen taal, waar heeft hij het over

TonyEcho (WATER) 的头像

TonyEcho (WATER)3 天前

No different than the industrial age

Fajar M Reza 的头像

Fajar M Reza3 天前

Buildout gaps make AI infrastructure look less like software, more like geopolitics.

⚙️ MATT ⚙️ 的头像

⚙️ MATT ⚙️3 天前

@CaitlinLong_ 👀

Fred the Fox 🦊 的头像

Fred the Fox 🦊3 天前

Decentralization would take off this pressure 🤦 Imagine AI infrastructure becoming truly globalized Outside of this power tussle there might be some relief in building on @fluence_project

Anointed Michael 的头像

Anointed Michael3 天前

I love this

相关视频

China is our adversary. They are building more power than we are, and then using it to power data centers to advance both economic interests and of course military as well. We can’t let the Chinese beat us in AI. We’ve gotta build more data centers, we’ve gotta build more power. We’ve got a lot ahead of us here because they’re beating us on this. We cannot let this happen.

China is our adversary. They are building more power than we are, and then using it to power data centers to advance both economic interests and of course military as well. We can’t let the Chinese beat us in AI. We’ve gotta build more data centers, we’ve gotta build more power. We’ve got a lot ahead of us here because they’re beating us on this. We cannot let this happen.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

19,405 次观看 • 4 个月前

Sam Altman: "Very soon an AI will just be running for you in the background all the time" That entire model is on its way out. But the vision isn't the tell. This is: He says everyone's going to want "so much more of this AI infrastructure than we think." That's not a roadmap. That's a man admitting he can't build chips and power fast enough. The always-on assistant is the headline. The infrastructure bottleneck underneath it is the trade almost nobody is pricing in. That gap is the whole edge.

Sam Altman: "Very soon an AI will just be running for you in the background all the time" That entire model is on its way out. But the vision isn't the tell. This is: He says everyone's going to want "so much more of this AI infrastructure than we think." That's not a roadmap. That's a man admitting he can't build chips and power fast enough. The always-on assistant is the headline. The infrastructure bottleneck underneath it is the trade almost nobody is pricing in. That gap is the whole edge.

plutos

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Jensen Huang is warning that China is winning the AI energy race. $NVDA $AMD $IREN $NBIS 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 The US is generations ahead on chips, but that doesn't matter if there is no energy to power them. Europe is completely irrelevant in AI and doomed already. It takes 10 years to build a new data center in Germany, as there is no power, and they are turning off nuclear power plants. The US won't let China win, so we could be at the beginning stages of an energy boom. The question is which stocks will benefit from this boom the most?

Jensen Huang is warning that China is winning the AI energy race. $NVDA $AMD $IREN $NBIS 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 The US is generations ahead on chips, but that doesn't matter if there is no energy to power them. Europe is completely irrelevant in AI and doomed already. It takes 10 years to build a new data center in Germany, as there is no power, and they are turning off nuclear power plants. The US won't let China win, so we could be at the beginning stages of an energy boom. The question is which stocks will benefit from this boom the most?

Ray Myers

84,029 次观看 • 9 个月前

The race to build data centers is reshaping power grids, construction markets and corporate capital spending on Earth. Now, some of the biggest names in technology and space want to move part of that infrastructure into orbit. This would launch a new frontier for insurers — if they can figure out how to price a risk that has never existed at scale. Read more:

The race to build data centers is reshaping power grids, construction markets and corporate capital spending on Earth. Now, some of the biggest names in technology and space want to move part of that infrastructure into orbit. This would launch a new frontier for insurers — if they can figure out how to price a risk that has never existed at scale. Read more:

CNBC

23,953 次观看 • 27 天前

The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors have allowed 200+ data centers to be built in the county and 100 more are on the way. Now, residents are dealing with the threat of massive high voltage transmission lines going through their yards to power the data centers.

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Nick Minock

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Olam Labs CEO sensho says the only two bottlenecks left to AGI and ASI are compute and data. "For AGI and ASI to come there are only two bottlenecks right now. We have no bottleneck with architecture or agents. It's data and compute." "Compute is the biggest bottleneck." "We're gonna have 10x more compute coming online in the next two years. If you're scaling law-pilled and if you're -pilled in all the ways that these AI labs are, then data is the actual bottleneck."

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The story is getting more and more outrageously stupid and even more so obvious Look at what they are showing us, and take a look at those hands - “my strong hand” Waykie Waykie people, we are about to start finding out some really dark, deep truths and there is a simple way to watch the information from the light, knowing this is a movie, or choose to go through the darkness because you are still the characters The choice will be yours It had to be this way #harrythesoulcoach #donaldtrump #charliekirk #truth

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Harry The Soul Coach

1,913,185 次观看 • 1 年前

Why wouldn’t China want more data centers built in the United States? Simple, the nation that leads in AI will lead the future, economically, technologically, and militarily. We’re already seeing it happen in real time as AI drives unprecedented productivity and margin expansion across every sector of the economy. While America debates permits, regulations, and protests over data centers, China is rapidly building power infrastructure and scaling compute capacity as fast as possible. This race is no longer theoretical. Whoever has the most compute, the best models, and the strongest infrastructure will shape the next era of global power.

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Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

35,540 次观看 • 3 个月前

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the biggest job boom coming to America has nothing to do with AI software or Wall Street, it's in infrastructure. Specifically, the construction, power grids, and data centers. That is where he believes the massive job growth is coming from. And his warning is that we are not ready for it. Companies are committing hundreds of billions to build out AI infrastructure across the US, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet are projected to spend $650 billion on it this year alone. But that buildout requires physical workers. Electricians, pipefitters, construction crews, grid engineers. Fink told the Trump administration directly, the US doesn't have enough skilled workers to meet the demand these projects will create. Microsoft's Brad Smith called the skilled labor shortage the "single biggest challenge for data center expansion in the U.S." In some regions, Microsoft had to relocate workers or ask them to commute 75 miles just to fill critical roles. The electrical work alone accounts for 45–70% of total data center construction costs. Over 200,000 electricians are expected to retire in the next decade. The pipeline to replace them doesn't exist at the scale needed. Energy resilience is the other piece Fink flagged. Data centers don't just need to be built, they need consistent, reliable power. The US grid hasn't been meaningfully expanded in decades. China, by contrast, generates roughly twice the electricity the US does and is actively building more. Fink's point is direct because if the US doesn't win the buildout of its physical infrastructure, China will. That is why BlackRock just committed $100 million to fund training programs for 50,000 skilled trade workers over the next five years. The largest asset manager in the world is putting money into electricians and plumbers because it sees the bottleneck clearly.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the biggest job boom coming to America has nothing to do with AI software or Wall Street, it's in infrastructure. Specifically, the construction, power grids, and data centers. That is where he believes the massive job growth is coming from. And his warning is that we are not ready for it. Companies are committing hundreds of billions to build out AI infrastructure across the US, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet are projected to spend $650 billion on it this year alone. But that buildout requires physical workers. Electricians, pipefitters, construction crews, grid engineers. Fink told the Trump administration directly, the US doesn't have enough skilled workers to meet the demand these projects will create. Microsoft's Brad Smith called the skilled labor shortage the "single biggest challenge for data center expansion in the U.S." In some regions, Microsoft had to relocate workers or ask them to commute 75 miles just to fill critical roles. The electrical work alone accounts for 45–70% of total data center construction costs. Over 200,000 electricians are expected to retire in the next decade. The pipeline to replace them doesn't exist at the scale needed. Energy resilience is the other piece Fink flagged. Data centers don't just need to be built, they need consistent, reliable power. The US grid hasn't been meaningfully expanded in decades. China, by contrast, generates roughly twice the electricity the US does and is actively building more. Fink's point is direct because if the US doesn't win the buildout of its physical infrastructure, China will. That is why BlackRock just committed $100 million to fund training programs for 50,000 skilled trade workers over the next five years. The largest asset manager in the world is putting money into electricians and plumbers because it sees the bottleneck clearly.

StockMarket.News

46,903 次观看 • 5 个月前

I think the fact is there are only going to be four or five of these companies that are able to raise the billions required to build the infrastructure to support these models. It's a global competition, and particularly against the Chinese right now because they're trying to beat us on AI, because the country with the best AI is gonna win all the wars. That's what's gonna happen. I think at the end of the day you want diversification in your portfolio, not just one stack. For me, I'm playing the picks and shovels. I'm building energy because you need energy for this stuff, and I'm building data centers. Now, there are different things, but right now we need more electrical power in this country beyond just data centers. We just need power because we got a booming economy.

I think the fact is there are only going to be four or five of these companies that are able to raise the billions required to build the infrastructure to support these models. It's a global competition, and particularly against the Chinese right now because they're trying to beat us on AI, because the country with the best AI is gonna win all the wars. That's what's gonna happen. I think at the end of the day you want diversification in your portfolio, not just one stack. For me, I'm playing the picks and shovels. I'm building energy because you need energy for this stuff, and I'm building data centers. Now, there are different things, but right now we need more electrical power in this country beyond just data centers. We just need power because we got a booming economy.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

13,143 次观看 • 3 个月前

Elon Musk explains the “series of miracles” xAI had to achieve to bring one gigawatt of power online for its supercomputer cluster in Memphis The xAI team coordinated dozens of gas turbines, faced permit challenges in Tennessee, and ultimately moved the power generation just across the border into Mississippi. From there, they had to run high-voltage transmission lines and build an entire power plant on the Mississippi side and it was very difficult to build that But the deeper point is even more important Most people calculate AI power needs by looking only at the GPUs. That is a serious mistake. A real data center also requires substantial power for networking, CPUs, storage, and most critically cooling In Memphis, where summer temperatures are extreme, peak cooling demand can add roughly 40% more power. On top of that, operators must maintain extra capacity so generators can be taken offline for servicing without shutting down the entire system. This redundancy typically adds another 20 to 25 percent When all of these factors are included, Elon stated that approximately 110,000 GB300 GPUs require roughly 330 megawatts of actual power generation This is why building and powering frontier AI data centers is far more difficult and far more capital intensive than it appears from the outside

Elon Musk explains the “series of miracles” xAI had to achieve to bring one gigawatt of power online for its supercomputer cluster in Memphis The xAI team coordinated dozens of gas turbines, faced permit challenges in Tennessee, and ultimately moved the power generation just across the border into Mississippi. From there, they had to run high-voltage transmission lines and build an entire power plant on the Mississippi side and it was very difficult to build that But the deeper point is even more important Most people calculate AI power needs by looking only at the GPUs. That is a serious mistake. A real data center also requires substantial power for networking, CPUs, storage, and most critically cooling In Memphis, where summer temperatures are extreme, peak cooling demand can add roughly 40% more power. On top of that, operators must maintain extra capacity so generators can be taken offline for servicing without shutting down the entire system. This redundancy typically adds another 20 to 25 percent When all of these factors are included, Elon stated that approximately 110,000 GB300 GPUs require roughly 330 megawatts of actual power generation This is why building and powering frontier AI data centers is far more difficult and far more capital intensive than it appears from the outside

X Freeze

140,377 次观看 • 4 个月前

Aravind Srinivas just explained why China’s open-source AI may become more powerful than ever. And why Anthropic has lobbied very hard for export control. "the only reason why there is even a 12-month gap between open source and frontier models is export controls. But there is a chance that, because of that, they now get really good at the physical layer. One advantage they (China) have is that they can actually build data centers a lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem. And so, by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you are converting them into a far more potent competitor." --- From "20VC with Harry Stebbings" YouTube channel (Harry Stebbings ), link in comment

Aravind Srinivas just explained why China’s open-source AI may become more powerful than ever. And why Anthropic has lobbied very hard for export control. "the only reason why there is even a 12-month gap between open source and frontier models is export controls. But there is a chance that, because of that, they now get really good at the physical layer. One advantage they (China) have is that they can actually build data centers a lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem. And so, by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you are converting them into a far more potent competitor." --- From "20VC with Harry Stebbings" YouTube channel (Harry Stebbings ), link in comment

Rohan Paul

139,067 次观看 • 2 个月前

Most workers won't be human by 2030. The economy we've been living in was built at biological speed. The same world is now being overrun by AI agents that operate a million times faster than we do. That's what I call the economic singularity… the point where what we've built stops being able to absorb what's happening, because the speed differential is too large to translate. Economics, politics, all of it was designed for a species that's about to lose its cognitive edge. We're already seeing the signs. AI now produces more words in a year than every human on Earth combined, and by 2028, it will produce more words than all of humanity has ever written since the Gutenberg press. Humans will no longer be the apex intelligence on this planet, and almost nobody is ready for it.

Most workers won't be human by 2030. The economy we've been living in was built at biological speed. The same world is now being overrun by AI agents that operate a million times faster than we do. That's what I call the economic singularity… the point where what we've built stops being able to absorb what's happening, because the speed differential is too large to translate. Economics, politics, all of it was designed for a species that's about to lose its cognitive edge. We're already seeing the signs. AI now produces more words in a year than every human on Earth combined, and by 2028, it will produce more words than all of humanity has ever written since the Gutenberg press. Humans will no longer be the apex intelligence on this planet, and almost nobody is ready for it.

Raoul Pal

142,292 次观看 • 1 个月前

REPORT: Nearly 50,000 people in the Lake Tahoe region are now being told they could lose access to electricity because power is being redirected to AI data centers. Many Americans are starting to fear this is in their future, too, as data centers are being forced onto communities nationwide. What’s happening in Tahoe is no longer just a dispute over utilities. It’s becoming a warning sign for the entire nation as homes, tourism, local economies, and basic human needs are pushed aside to make room for the AI buildout. NV Energy reportedly plans to stop supplying the region after May 2027 because the power is needed to fuel the rapidly expanding AI data center boom. Residents now face collapsing property values, fears their communities may no longer remain livable, and the horrifying realization that ordinary Americans are increasingly being pushed aside so the AI race can accelerate. Critics say this keeps happening because data center developers and their political allies are being treated as more important than the people already living in these communities. The deeper fear spreading nationwide is becoming impossible to ignore: if Americans can lose power so AI infrastructure can expand, what will communities be forced to sacrifice next? ZeeeMediaOfficial's explosive report uncovers why growing numbers of Americans are starting to believe entire communities be traded away for the AI race.

REPORT: Nearly 50,000 people in the Lake Tahoe region are now being told they could lose access to electricity because power is being redirected to AI data centers. Many Americans are starting to fear this is in their future, too, as data centers are being forced onto communities nationwide. What’s happening in Tahoe is no longer just a dispute over utilities. It’s becoming a warning sign for the entire nation as homes, tourism, local economies, and basic human needs are pushed aside to make room for the AI buildout. NV Energy reportedly plans to stop supplying the region after May 2027 because the power is needed to fuel the rapidly expanding AI data center boom. Residents now face collapsing property values, fears their communities may no longer remain livable, and the horrifying realization that ordinary Americans are increasingly being pushed aside so the AI race can accelerate. Critics say this keeps happening because data center developers and their political allies are being treated as more important than the people already living in these communities. The deeper fear spreading nationwide is becoming impossible to ignore: if Americans can lose power so AI infrastructure can expand, what will communities be forced to sacrifice next? ZeeeMediaOfficial's explosive report uncovers why growing numbers of Americans are starting to believe entire communities be traded away for the AI race.

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

103,302 次观看 • 4 个月前

#WATCH | Delhi: When asked about his reaction on private capital expenditure (CAPEX) not coming in and growth is happening only because of Govt CAPEX over the last 3-4 years, Neelkanth Mishra, Executive Director for India at the World Bank Headquarters, says, "In the economy, investment to GDP, as reported by the CSO or the MoSPI, is 32% of GDP. Central government CAPEX is 3.2% of GDP. So the central government is one-tenth of overall CAPEX. Central government CAPEX as a percentage of GDP, in the last three years, has moved by 10 basis points. So you think that all of CAPEX is happening with the centre? Just because it is in the narrative and every media house is based in Delhi, it doesn't mean that the only central government is handling the economy. A large part of CAPEX happens when houses are built. Household CAPEX, capital formation, is where people add a room to their house or a floor to their house. Then someone gets a son who is married, someone, two brothers separate, and they build separate floors. Those are things which are at a population scale substantial for capital formation. Look at what is happening with steel. I mean, the other day I saw this compilation of some 100 million tons of steel capacity being planned in Odisha. That's massive. That is how CAPEX happens... CAPEX has picked up power generation. Corporate credit is starting to pick up. All these narratives that private CAPEX is not happening are like this..."

#WATCH | Delhi: When asked about his reaction on private capital expenditure (CAPEX) not coming in and growth is happening only because of Govt CAPEX over the last 3-4 years, Neelkanth Mishra, Executive Director for India at the World Bank Headquarters, says, "In the economy, investment to GDP, as reported by the CSO or the MoSPI, is 32% of GDP. Central government CAPEX is 3.2% of GDP. So the central government is one-tenth of overall CAPEX. Central government CAPEX as a percentage of GDP, in the last three years, has moved by 10 basis points. So you think that all of CAPEX is happening with the centre? Just because it is in the narrative and every media house is based in Delhi, it doesn't mean that the only central government is handling the economy. A large part of CAPEX happens when houses are built. Household CAPEX, capital formation, is where people add a room to their house or a floor to their house. Then someone gets a son who is married, someone, two brothers separate, and they build separate floors. Those are things which are at a population scale substantial for capital formation. Look at what is happening with steel. I mean, the other day I saw this compilation of some 100 million tons of steel capacity being planned in Odisha. That's massive. That is how CAPEX happens... CAPEX has picked up power generation. Corporate credit is starting to pick up. All these narratives that private CAPEX is not happening are like this..."

ANI

26,742 次观看 • 3 个月前

There is a new extremely viral theory going around that many of the data centers being built in America aren’t really data centers They’re actually modern day panopticon. A digital surveillance state Even Tucker Carlson thinks this is the case and brings it up with Kevin O'Leary There are some real reasons to question what we’re being told, one of the reasons is the size and scale Think about this China’s largest reported single data center campus is only about 200 football fields in size Compare that to the US where a single data center is being planned at 33,000 football fields. Not to mention there are tons of them that are massive being planned and built It really doesn’t make sense when you compare the population of China being bigger than the US This is a conspiracy, but it’s something to think about because we know America has been moving towards a surveillance state, that’s every real Keep paying attention and questioning things

There is a new extremely viral theory going around that many of the data centers being built in America aren’t really data centers They’re actually modern day panopticon. A digital surveillance state Even Tucker Carlson thinks this is the case and brings it up with Kevin O'Leary There are some real reasons to question what we’re being told, one of the reasons is the size and scale Think about this China’s largest reported single data center campus is only about 200 football fields in size Compare that to the US where a single data center is being planned at 33,000 football fields. Not to mention there are tons of them that are massive being planned and built It really doesn’t make sense when you compare the population of China being bigger than the US This is a conspiracy, but it’s something to think about because we know America has been moving towards a surveillance state, that’s every real Keep paying attention and questioning things

Wall Street Apes

178,613 次观看 • 3 个月前

At a certain point, money stops being the motivation. I don’t work 18 hours a day because I need more wealth, I do it because I want to build something extraordinary that my children can be proud of. What drives me now is competing in the AI race and making sure North America, not China, leads the future of advanced technology. That’s why I’m building sustainable data centers at scale to prove we can out innovate, out build, and out compete while doing it the right way.

At a certain point, money stops being the motivation. I don’t work 18 hours a day because I need more wealth, I do it because I want to build something extraordinary that my children can be proud of. What drives me now is competing in the AI race and making sure North America, not China, leads the future of advanced technology. That’s why I’m building sustainable data centers at scale to prove we can out innovate, out build, and out compete while doing it the right way.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

183,735 次观看 • 3 个月前