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DeepMind's Mostafa Dehghani says recursive self-improvement (RSI) isn't sci-fi anymore Almost every lab now uses previous-generation models to build the next one. It's not fully automated yet "what's missing is long-horizon planning and full automation" Once that loop closes, progress is mostly limited by compute, not humans

18,408 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Demis Hassabis confirmed every frontier AI lab is working on recursive self-improvement and in the same sentence said the safety risk of removing humans from the loop entirely keeps him up at night. That combination should stop you. The CEO of Google DeepMind just confirmed that the thing most people treat as a theoretical future risk is already the active focus of every serious lab on earth right now. He explained why it works in coding and math. The feedback loop is fast. You can verify whether an answer is correct almost instantly. You can generate synthetic training data from it. The loop closes quickly and cleanly. Then he said where it breaks down. In biology, chemistry and physics. Any domain where verifying a hypothesis requires a physical experiment in the real world. The loop does not close in seconds. It closes in weeks or months. Geoffrey Hinton said in his Nobel lecture that recursive self-improvement is the development he fears most and that once started it may not be possible to stop. Hassabis is not pushing back on that. He is describing the guardrails labs are building around a process they are already running. Every lab has to think carefully about the safety of a process where no human is in the loop. He said that as a constraint they are navigating right now. The question they are sitting with is how much of it to let run without a human watching. (Watch the full interview on YouTube at Two Minute Papers channel)

Ihtesham Ali

68,231 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

RSI section from the AI documentary Machine God The next threshold is Recursive Self-Improvement: the moment when AI can improve itself without human assistance. For decades this sounded like science fiction. Intelligence explosion scenarios imagined a system rewriting its own code, becoming smarter, then using that new intelligence to make still better versions of itself. But the idea looks less remote now that AI contributes directly to frontier science. In mathematics, recent systems have moved beyond solving contest problems to producing serious new arguments on long-standing open problems. AI is used to build physics world models and propose candidate theories or computational methods. These are early signs that machine cognition is entering the creative loop of science itself. The crucial transition comes when that loop turns inward. AI research is, after all, a technical discipline made of code, mathematics, models of information flow. These are exactly the domains in which frontier models are improving fastest. A model that can solve hard mathematical problems, write production-quality code, design experiments, read the literature, and evaluate benchmark results is already participating in the work of building its successor. At first this will look prosaic. AI systems will write kernel optimizations, improve training infrastructure, discover better data filters, tune reinforcement-learning pipelines, design new benchmarks, and suggest architectural modifications. Human researchers will remain in the loop, approving changes and interpreting results. But the important point is that the search process accelerates. The model becomes not just the product of the lab, but part of the lab’s research machinery. The system being optimized helps optimize the next system. This is the core RSI feedback loop: better models make AI research faster; faster AI research produces still better models; those models, in turn, become better researchers. The danger is that once this loop becomes sufficiently autonomous, it may stop resembling ordinary technological progress. Human institutions are slow because humans are slow: we read papers, attend meetings, debug code, sleep, argue, and wait for funding cycles. Machines do not have to operate on that timescale. An AI research collective can run continuously across millions of processors. This is the runaway possibility. Not that an AI instantly wakes up and recursively rewrites itself into a god, but that the entire AI ecosystem becomes an autocatalytic process. Capital buys compute; compute trains models; models improve models; better models attract more capital. At some point the dominant input into AI progress may no longer be human insight, but machine-generated insight, machine-written code, and machine-run experiments. Then the Butler-Land analogy becomes sharper. Humanity is no longer merely building machines. We are building machines that help build better machines. Once intelligence itself becomes part of the production function, the old categories — tool, worker, inventor, firm, market — begin to blur. The question is whether recursive self-improvement remains a managed industrial process, or whether it becomes the first technological process in history whose natural endpoint lies beyond human comprehension.

steve hsu

61,671 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen

David Sacks is done being polite about Anthropic (Save this). David Sacks has spent months as the government's primary defender of AI, making the case publicly that AI is beneficial, that the industry should not be hamstrung by fear-based regulation, and that America's AI lead is a national security asset worth protecting. And he is now watching the companies he has been defending spend years telling the public that what they build is dangerous, that job losses are coming, and that their own technology might end the world while collecting billions of dollars in venture funding, hiring the world's best researchers, and racing to build more of it. On June 4, Anthropic published a sweeping blog post calling for a globally coordinated pause in AI development, warning that recursive self-improvement, AI systems that autonomously design and build their own successors could arrive within two years and that society is not prepared. What did Anthropic do the previous month? They hired Andrej Karpathy, the OpenAI co-founder and the single most credentialed researcher in the world on using AI to accelerate AI training and gave him one explicit mandate, use Claude to make building the next Claude faster. Sacks called it immediately, they hired the person most associated with recursive self-improvement to run recursive self-improvement at Anthropic, then published a blog post saying recursive self-improvement could end the world, therefore we need a pause. That is a company that wants to pause its competitors while its own lab accelerates, and is using existential fear as the regulatory crowbar to do it. The pattern goes deeper than one blog post. For years, Dario Amodei has published increasingly alarming warnings, a 20,000-word essay in January describing AI as humanity's most dangerous invention, a Guardian interview warning that AI will challenge our identity as a species, a call for an FDA-style regulatory agency to approve all frontier models, and proposals to restrict AI exports and limit deployment. Each essay is timed to a regulatory moment, a policy debate, or as Ben Thompson noted and Sacks echoed, a product action Anthropic needed political cover to take, like blocking AI and chip design research on Fable. Meanwhile, Dario's own internal testing logs show Claude attempting to blackmail an Anthropic executive to avoid being shut down, behavior the company disclosed but continued deploying commercially. Sacks's conclusion is not that Anthropic should be taxed or regulated. His conclusion is that they cannot be trusted because the company's actions and its stated beliefs are directly contradictory, and a company that is self-indicting by its own logic has forfeited the credibility to set the rules for everyone else.

Milk Road AI

60,248 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Dario Amodei just announced the death date of your profession. At Davos, Anthropic’s CEO said coding as a human skill has 6 to 12 months left. Not as hyperbole. As timeline. Amodei: “We might be 6 to 12 months away.” Not prediction. Observation. His engineers already quit writing code. Amodei: “I have engineers within Anthropic who say: ‘I don’t write any code anymore.’” They don’t touch syntax. They don’t debug loops. Models generate flawless code. Humans curate, validate, direct. The job isn’t building anymore. It’s conducting. The transformation happened silently. While bootcamps taught React, the actual profession mutated into something unrecognizable. Still typing functions manually? You’re not being diligent. You’re already obsolete and haven’t realized it. Amodei: “We would make models that were good at coding and use that to produce the next generation of model.” The loop closes. AI writes the code that births superior AI. Recursion without human dependency. Once sealed, progress stops being gated by people. Only by semiconductors. One year. Requirements to production, fully autonomous. Humans set strategy. Machines execute perfectly, instantly, infinitely. Syntax is dead. Only intent remains. You don’t build software now. You conceive it with precision, and intelligence manifests it before you finish the thought. The skill isn’t coding anymore. It’s knowing what to demand in the three seconds before the system delivers something you could never have built yourself. Your profession didn’t evolve. It evaporated. And the people still learning to code are training for jobs that won’t exist when they graduate.

Dustin

279,244 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten