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Dems' chances in Mich Senate are down dramatically since earlier this year. On Tuesday, El-Sayed showed little working class appeal (e.g. lost all 15 counties with lowest % of coll. degrees). The big polling miss makes me wonder: will general election polls overestimate him?
324,027 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)
35 Comments

who gives a shit what prediction markets say? they're simply the feels of a bunch of online weirdos who manipulate markets

Dems chances have plummeted based not on the polls, but Kalshi prediction market.🤔

Nothing is funnier than taking a primary and saying something like "he has no working class appeal bc he lost these counties" he ran against another Dem you fucking idiot. Has nothing to do with how those Dems are going to vote in November

Holy propaganda, ppl with an education are now called 'Elite circles.' AIPAC is working overtime

Turns out working people have better bullshit detectors than elites in Ann Arbor. Sayed has been hanging waaay too closely to @hasanthehun Hasan Piker.

i know it’s a CNN-kalshi partnership thing but i’m literally begging you to stop presenting “prediction market odds” as data points. they are meaningless. they are worthless. they have absolutely zero real use. please stop mixing them in with real polls, however flawed they are

Okay folks. You voted for him. You'd better break your backs to get him in cause if you don't, your progressive far-left butts are going to be cooked for at least two electoral sessions.

Why so much interest in polls and not in the fact that 60M+ USD was poured on the campaign of his opponent by AIPAC and the establishment and the entire mainstream media was against him yet he prevailed??? That is the bigger story.

Mi Sen was safe D in t original forecast but will likely be a toss up when I release the update after Labor Day 😢

It will always be the economy, stupid, and all this fearmongering by you establishment folks isn’t working. You are the same folks who said El-Sayed would win by double digits in your “polls.” He won, but not by double digits. The truth is you people don’t know what you’re talking about, and you have no clue what real Americans are going through. I think he has a really good shot at winning and expanding his base of support. But from now until November, we will have to listen from your Israel-owned networks about how he won’t win, and then after he wins, you will move on to the next grift!

prediction markets are not polls. its a bunch of degenerate gamblers. the same markets had Cuomo winning.

The wildcard in this race will be how many Republicans stay home to protest the miserable legislative record of the Senate GOP

Stop using prediction markets as “data”, Harry. Maybe wait a bit for Dems to fully consolidate and some polling to come out before you make your analysis.

66% of Americans favor universal healthcare. El Sayed favors universal healthcare. Rogers opposes universal healthcare. Vote out every Republican November 3 and your health insurance premium falls to $0.00/mo.

Why are you using online prediction markets easily susceptible to manipulation by people with money. Typical journalistic malpractice from CNN.

Meanwhile he’s still attacking “the establishment” instead of going after Rogers.

Slotkin couldn't put Rogers away convincingly because she was too middle of the road. Same problem Harris had. El Sayed is going to get the voters to come out and vote.

Using Kalshi odds is going to bite you people in the ass. It is allowing a manipulative entity drive your narrative. Why don't you actually find out what is happening instead of relying on bloody gamblers?

Fucking FRAUD using prediction markets

the polls missed because republicans cross voted. republicans are strait up admitting they did this. and a fucking gambling website doesn't actually predict election outcomes. its a fucking gambling website.

Why are we citing Kalshi betting odds as if they are some divine fact 😭😭😭

I still believe El-Sayed can win. Trump and rubber stamp Republicans are unpopular and lost favor with swing voters. I don’t see MI voters from a Dem incumbent to a Republican, especially not after Trump let Elon Musk fire hundreds of thousands of employees via DOGE.

Betting odds ≠ polling data.

Wouldn't Michigan's open primary skew these metrics? Primary polls struggle to model independent and crossover voters. Comparing open primary turnout dynamics to general election viability ignores how different November's electorate will be.

If you look at how he did county by county, he basically only won the counties with large colleges in them. He lost Wayne, Oakland, Macomb counties (where everyone actually lives) pretty handily. There are only so many delusional college students / recent grads for him.

I'm so sick of you. Using betting odds and it's only been 2 days. THE CORPORATE MEDIA SUCKS!

Listen, man. You're a smart guy. You know there's a difference between the immoral prediction markets like Kalshi and chances/odds. You also know that society is worse-off when you run misleading segments like these. This is a damaging use of your public figure status!

@KaivanShroff My God, how many times have you been wrong? Listening to polls… maybe you should remember that people want shit they’re not getting in America. Jesus he’s a progressive. Is that so scary?

DSA isn't the party of the working class. It's the party of the credentialed class

Yes, but if DSA blocks its ears, closes its eyes, and screams into the void loudly enough, maybe the riskiness of nominating an extremist will be proven fakes news.

Fck El-Sayed

So the guy who took contributions from a Hamas linked group looks like a poor candidate in the general. Wow, shocking!

If nothing else, the MI primary was another lesson in why not listening to the likes of Enton for insight into how people are going to vote is prudent.

Why the fuck are you so obsessed with prediction markets? They are total bullshit.

Donald Trump is now 20% underwater in Michigan, a state he won in 2024. Republicans have not flipped a single seat in 2025 or 2026. Also:

