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🚨 “Development is where the edge is—not exploration.” — Don Durrett Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com In this Ask the Expert episode, Craig Hemke speaks with Don Durrett about how to approach mining stocks, where the real edge lies, and why development-stage projects offer stronger probabilities than exploration plays. TF...

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The Junior Mining Trade is Finally On and Here's Why For junior mining investors, 2024 has been a mixed bag of patience and promise. While the price of gold and silver has been skyrocketing to levels unseen in over 20 years, junior mining stocks haven’t kept pace. Many investors who poured money into smallcap exploration companies expecting them to follow gold’s surge are getting restless. But things are finally looking up for this lagging sector, and it’s all about where we’re at in the natural resource cycle. Let’s break down what’s happening and what might be on the horizon. Gold and Silver Are Shining—So Where Are the Juniors? Over the past year, the price of gold has climbed nearly 38%, with silver up a stunning 42.5%. Yet, despite these record-breaking moves, the smaller companies focused on exploration and discovery, the juniors, have barely moved. The S&P TSX Global Mining Index is up a respectable 23%, but the TSX Venture Metals and Mining Index, where most juniors trade, has only eked out a 9% gain. What gives? The answer lies in understanding how large and small mining companies navigate their roles in the precious metals cycle. Large mining firms like Newmont have been basking in higher prices, increasing production, and capitalizing on high margins. But for smaller companies, the real opportunity often comes when large producers start feeling the need to secure future supply. And here in late 2024, that moment is just arriving. The Resource Equation: Why Giants Like Newmont Look to the Smaller Names To understand how the big miners influence juniors, let’s look at Newmont Corporation, the world’s largest gold miner, operating across four continents. Newmont’s primary goal is to produce as much gold as possible at the lowest possible cost. But mining is unlike most industries—every ton of ore that comes out of the ground depletes reserves. Once Newmont extracts an ounce of gold, it’s gone for good. And unless it adds new ounces to its portfolio, production eventually declines, and so does the stock price. For a giant like Newmont, replacing these reserves through new discoveries is costly, risky, and time-consuming. Companies like Newmont prefer to purchase assets that are already developed or nearly so. Recently, Newmont acquired Newcrest in a $28.8 billion deal, marking the largest gold merger to date. Newcrest itself grew through acquisitions, buying up promising mines like Red Chris and Brucejack to shore up its reserves. By buying Newcrest, Newmont added high-quality, low-cost ounces to its portfolio, but the global giant still needs to continually replenish reserves to meet production demands. That’s where the juniors come in. Agnico-Eagle and the Depletion Dilemma Agnico-Eagle, the second largest gold producer, faces similar challenges. After its own string of acquisitions, including a merger with Kirkland Lake Gold and the purchase of Yamana’s assets, Agnico has continued to produce significant volumes of gold. But high production volumes mean reserves are also dwindling fast. Take Agnico’s mines in Mexico, Pinos Altos and La India, which once held nearly 80 million tonnes of gold and silver ore. After a decade of operation, these assets are close to depletion. Agnico has exploration projects, but it’s unclear if they’ll be able to replenish the company’s gold supply at the rate it’s being depleted. For Agnico, acquiring developed assets is a faster solution, but with competition increasing, the company may soon have to look at even smaller players—putting junior mining companies back in the spotlight. The Junior Mining Cycle: Positioned for Growth? As long as gold and silver prices remain high, big mining companies will be on the lookout for acquisitions to secure future production. In fact, the 23% gain in the S&P TSX Global Mining Index and the 45% one-year return on the GDX signal that the metals rally is starting to reach mining stocks. The trend is only beginning to impact juniors, but it’s gaining momentum. Soon, even higher-risk, earlier-stage exploration companies may become prime acquisition targets for larger miners. For juniors, this translates into real opportunity. As big miners get hungrier for reserves, they’ll go further up the risk curve to secure assets, bringing much-needed capital into the space. Exploration companies that prove their resource quality, viability, and production potential may see increased valuations and potentially, acquisition offers. And with investor attention gradually returning to the sector, the right companies could see significant price moves. 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We’ll continue to feature CEOs and industry experts to bring you insights directly from the companies on the frontlines of this cycle. And if you have questions for our guests, let us know in the comments—chances are they’re reading too.

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