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DNSA* Jon Finer at Carnegie Endowment said Pakistan is developing a large-diameter solid rocket motor for an ICBM that, in the Q&A, he characterizes as "fundamentally focused on us," adding "that is an inescapable conclusion." That last conclusion I find rather easy to escape. 🧵

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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

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54,504 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce •via X (Twitter)

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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

Finer mentions the 3 rounds of sanctions that preceded the 4th round yesterday. I dug them up: 1. Oct 2023: 2. Apr 2024: 3. Sep 2024: 4. Dec 2024:

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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

The two interesting ones relate to equipment for the testing of large diameter solid rocket motors: "Granpect Company Limited... worked to supply equipment for testing large diameter rocket motors to Pakistan’s NDC" and ...

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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

... Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry (RIAMB) was accused of helping to "procure equipment for testing of large diameter rocket motors, including the Shaheen-3 and Ababeel, but also potentially for larger systems."

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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

I am sure Pakistan *is* developing large diameter solid rocket motors (>1.4 m, the diameter of the Shaheen III), but it is a HUGE LEAP to suggest that the only reason for doing this is to develop an ICBM capable to targeting the United States.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis profil fotoğrafı
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

FWIW: The US doesn't define large in this context, but ICBM motors can be big (1.7 m like Minuteman) and really big (2.3 m like Peacekeeper) and comically big (3.7 m like the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster).

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis profil fotoğrafı
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

Space launchers can be really big. India makes a 2.8 m diameter solid motor for the Polar and Geostationary Space Launch Vehicle (PSLV/GLSV). China recently tested a 3.5 m diameter solid rocket motor. That's much bigger than an ICBM needs to be.

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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

Another problem is that Pakistan might want an ICBM class motor to use as an intermediate range ballistic missile like the SS-20. Russia just used the first two stages of the Yars ICBM (1.86 m) to deliver conventional warheads against Ukraine just 1,000 km away.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis profil fotoğrafı
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

Countries develop big motors for all sorts of reasons. There are strategic reasons like "I need an ICBM" or "I want to put a satellite in orbit," as well as other sorts of political reasons like "I want to work on cool technology" or "India has one, it's not fair."

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis profil fotoğrafı
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

So, bottom line: I am sure Pakistan seeks large-diameter solid rocket motors. I am sure China is helping. But I don't think we should simply assume that Pakistan is building a large-diameter motor solely to target the US absent additional information.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis profil fotoğrafı
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis1 yıl önce

*He's technically the Deputy *Assistant to President* for *National Security Affairs* but the Biden people insist on using "Deputy National Security Adviser" or DNSA. So for clarity, I'll use their stupid nomenclature but you can't make me like it.

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