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Dominant effort from RHP Sam Mommer (St. Thomas More, 2024; Parkside commit) 11 Ks across four innings. FB sat upper-80s T90 mph. Showed feel for two BBs that got multiple S/M, flashed a mid-70s CH to LHH. St. Thomas More 7 | Catholic Memorial 1 B5

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From last night: RHP Ben Moser (Sussex Hamilton, 2024; St. Thomas recruit) continued his standout senior season with a win on the mound, sending the Chargers to Sectionals. Mostly FB/SL, FB sat 86-89 T90 mph, confident in a mid-70s SL.
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From last night: RHP Ben Moser (Sussex Hamilton, 2024; St. Thomas recruit) continued his standout senior season with a win on the mound, sending the Chargers to Sectionals. Mostly FB/SL, FB sat 86-89 T90 mph, confident in a mid-70s SL.

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So. RHP Nolan Hand (St Charles CC Baseball) showed a quality feel for spin. FB sat upper-80s (T2500+ rpm) and was paired with a mid-70s BB (T2700+ rpm). 6-foot-1, 195-pound frame PUMA Classic | David Seifert

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Good FB/BB/FB sequence here from #Johnnies commit David Rodriguez (‘24,PA). Sturdy RHP worked steadily in the upper-80s throughout his 4IP, peaking @ 92 mph. Tons of heavy sink to the FB; flashed faded CH @ times to disrupt timing & landed sweeping BB for both Ks & S/M. #WWBAWorlds Perfect Game Mid-Atlantic
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RHP Kyle Alivo (STM.Cavaliers.Baseball, 2024; Iowa Baseball) came in and shut the door in the final frame for STM. Touched 93 mph w/ the FB while sitting 89-92 mph. Spun in a sharp BB in the mid-to-upper-70s, too. FINAL: No. 12 St. Thomas More 3️⃣ | No. 10 Oconomowoc 1️⃣
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RHP Kyle Alivo (STM.Cavaliers.Baseball, 2024; Iowa Baseball) came in and shut the door in the final frame for STM. Touched 93 mph w/ the FB while sitting 89-92 mph. Spun in a sharp BB in the mid-to-upper-70s, too. FINAL: No. 12 St. Thomas More 3️⃣ | No. 10 Oconomowoc 1️⃣

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11,686 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

LHP Zach Root (Arkansas Baseball) is one of the best college lefthanders in this year's Draft class. After splitting time between the bullpen and rotation as a Freshman, Root last year was a full time starter and pitched his way to a 3.56 ERA with 76 Ks to 21 BB across 68.1 IP. Slightly undersized at 6'1" and 186-pounds, but there's present strength and physicality in his lower-half. Natural funk and deception in his delivery that includes a high leg lift and some tilt in his upper-half. Average arm stroke with a slight wrist coil, attacks from a mid-three quarter (maybe a tick lower) slot with a bit of cross fire. Root's FB will sit in the 91-94 range, but it was up to 97. Will flash arm side life through the zone and is best when located on either third (arm or glove side) of the plate or in the top-half. Not a real bat-misser right now, so refining its shape should be a point of focus both this spring and beyond. Bread and butter offerings are his secondaries. Root's low-80s CH gets averaged almost 10 MPH of separation off his heater and it's a pitch he throws with conviction. Consistently flashes fade to the arm side as well as late diving life. Generated a 46% miss rate last spring, would stick a plus grade on it. High-70s-to-low-80s CB flashes big-time depth with some sharpness. 11-to-5 shape against RHH, but will be longer than it is deep against LHH. Has a decent feel for the pitch, and last season it held opposing hitters to a minuscule .048 average while generating a 48% miss rate. Rounds out his arsenal with a mid-to-upper-80s CUT/SL that against LHH will flash sweeping life with some late bite. Potentially average offering. Would like to see his strike-throwing improve this season. Day 1 profile this July. (📽️: ECU Baseball)
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LHP Zach Root (Arkansas Baseball) is one of the best college lefthanders in this year's Draft class. After splitting time between the bullpen and rotation as a Freshman, Root last year was a full time starter and pitched his way to a 3.56 ERA with 76 Ks to 21 BB across 68.1 IP. Slightly undersized at 6'1" and 186-pounds, but there's present strength and physicality in his lower-half. Natural funk and deception in his delivery that includes a high leg lift and some tilt in his upper-half. Average arm stroke with a slight wrist coil, attacks from a mid-three quarter (maybe a tick lower) slot with a bit of cross fire. Root's FB will sit in the 91-94 range, but it was up to 97. Will flash arm side life through the zone and is best when located on either third (arm or glove side) of the plate or in the top-half. Not a real bat-misser right now, so refining its shape should be a point of focus both this spring and beyond. Bread and butter offerings are his secondaries. Root's low-80s CH gets averaged almost 10 MPH of separation off his heater and it's a pitch he throws with conviction. Consistently flashes fade to the arm side as well as late diving life. Generated a 46% miss rate last spring, would stick a plus grade on it. High-70s-to-low-80s CB flashes big-time depth with some sharpness. 11-to-5 shape against RHH, but will be longer than it is deep against LHH. Has a decent feel for the pitch, and last season it held opposing hitters to a minuscule .048 average while generating a 48% miss rate. Rounds out his arsenal with a mid-to-upper-80s CUT/SL that against LHH will flash sweeping life with some late bite. Potentially average offering. Would like to see his strike-throwing improve this season. Day 1 profile this July. (📽️: ECU Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

63,571 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

RHP Justin Mitrovich (Elon Baseball) is one mid-major arm to follow this season. Was excellent as a true Freshman and pitched his way to a 3.68 ERA with 66 Ks to 21 BB across 63.2 IP. Last spring he worked a 5.06 ERA and collected 96 Ks against 30 BB in 80 IP. Mitrovich also showed positive flashes on the Cape this summer and notched 17 Ks in as many IP. Mitrovich has an athletic frame at 6'3" and 200-lbs. Room to fill out physically. Worked exclusively out of the stretch during the spring, but went back to the windup this summer. Works on the 1B side of the rubber, starts his motion with a small side step then gathers himself. Leads into a high lift, and the rest of his operation is up-tempo. Plenty of depth on his long arm stroke, attacks from a three-quarters slot with present arm speed. Some effort. Mitrovich's FB sits in the 91-94 range, but has been up to 96 with some life in the top-1/2 of the zone. Figuring his heater out is going to be the key for him going forward. Threw mostly 4-seamers during the spring, but went 2-seam heavy during the summer and still generated a whiff rate < 20%. A handful of the latter flashed late arm side life, particularly against LHH. Both play well in the top-1/2 of the zone. Needs to iron out the shape and maximize it. Mitrovich's bread-and-butter offerings are his secondaries. His low-80s CH is one of the best of its kind in the college ranks. Averaged over 12 MPH off his FB last spring and is a legit swing-and-miss pitch against both LHH and RHH. Throws it with conviction and will use it in any count. Consistently flashes fade to the arm side as well as ample late tumbling life. True "falling off the table" look. Mitrovich's feel for the pitch is highly advanced, and last spring it generated a 52% whiff rate, 47% chase rate and held opposing hitters to a .198 average. Comfortably a 60. Rounds out his arsenal with a low-to-mid-80s SL that is a particular weapon against righthanded hitters. Gyro look that's not big in shape, but will flash some lateral glove-side life with late bite. Flashed above-average at times last spring and garnered a 45% miss rate. Gets whiffs both in and out of the zone. Mitrovich is a strike-thrower who looks the part of a starter at the next level. As mentioned, the key with him is developing the FB. Fits as a 5th-7th rounder for me right now. (📽️: Elon Baseball)
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RHP Justin Mitrovich (Elon Baseball) is one mid-major arm to follow this season. Was excellent as a true Freshman and pitched his way to a 3.68 ERA with 66 Ks to 21 BB across 63.2 IP. Last spring he worked a 5.06 ERA and collected 96 Ks against 30 BB in 80 IP. Mitrovich also showed positive flashes on the Cape this summer and notched 17 Ks in as many IP. Mitrovich has an athletic frame at 6'3" and 200-lbs. Room to fill out physically. Worked exclusively out of the stretch during the spring, but went back to the windup this summer. Works on the 1B side of the rubber, starts his motion with a small side step then gathers himself. Leads into a high lift, and the rest of his operation is up-tempo. Plenty of depth on his long arm stroke, attacks from a three-quarters slot with present arm speed. Some effort. Mitrovich's FB sits in the 91-94 range, but has been up to 96 with some life in the top-1/2 of the zone. Figuring his heater out is going to be the key for him going forward. Threw mostly 4-seamers during the spring, but went 2-seam heavy during the summer and still generated a whiff rate < 20%. A handful of the latter flashed late arm side life, particularly against LHH. Both play well in the top-1/2 of the zone. Needs to iron out the shape and maximize it. Mitrovich's bread-and-butter offerings are his secondaries. His low-80s CH is one of the best of its kind in the college ranks. Averaged over 12 MPH off his FB last spring and is a legit swing-and-miss pitch against both LHH and RHH. Throws it with conviction and will use it in any count. Consistently flashes fade to the arm side as well as ample late tumbling life. True "falling off the table" look. Mitrovich's feel for the pitch is highly advanced, and last spring it generated a 52% whiff rate, 47% chase rate and held opposing hitters to a .198 average. Comfortably a 60. Rounds out his arsenal with a low-to-mid-80s SL that is a particular weapon against righthanded hitters. Gyro look that's not big in shape, but will flash some lateral glove-side life with late bite. Flashed above-average at times last spring and garnered a 45% miss rate. Gets whiffs both in and out of the zone. Mitrovich is a strike-thrower who looks the part of a starter at the next level. As mentioned, the key with him is developing the FB. Fits as a 5th-7th rounder for me right now. (📽️: Elon Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

15,040 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Lots of people are sleeping on Quinn Priester... I have a feeling this dude is going to make an impact with the major league club next year. Let’s talk about it. Adding velo to the sinker (SI) has been a constant emphasis since coming over via trade, and we already saw a minor increase last year. Avg SI velo (2024) 📈 • w/ PIT: 93.0 mph • w/ BOS: 93.8 mph NOTE: Remove his first two appearances where there wasn’t really any changes made, and his avg SI velo now sits at 94.2 mph. Games where SI sat 94+ mph 📈 • w/ PIT: 2 (of 23) • w/ BOS: 5 (of 10) He’s comfortably hit 96 and topped 97 mph for Worcester (seen in video attached), and has been grinding on a velo program this winter as well. Other top velos, just for fun… • FF: 96.3 mph* • SL: 92.3 mph • CU: 83.5 mph* • CH: 92 mph* • FC: 94.4 mph* *indicates top velo was w/ BOS — On top of this, we all know that Bres/Bailey & Co. love their whiff and secondary offerings. Priester took a huge step forward last year in both of these categories. Overall whiff 📈 • w/ PIT: 29.8% • w: BOS: 35.4% Arsenal whiff w/ BOS 📈 • SI: 22% • FF: 30% • FC: 42% • SL: 48% (‼️) • CU: 43%** **hot take: SI/SL combo are his carrying pitches, but his best pitch is his CH — Clearly, there’s something there. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a major usage change. Here’s what I would propose: • FA (FF/SI/FC): 46.3% ➡️ 30% - SI: 20% (“get me over” or “need it” kind of pitch; needs to be for a strike, low in zone; CH plays off it) - FC: 9% (would love to use it more, but had a limited sample size in 2024; start off as a LHH-exclusive like Garett Whitlock showcased; needs to either be elevated (tunnel w/ FF) or down+out (tunnel w/ SL) - FF: 1% (similar to what we saw Bello implement… only deploy in key situations; must be elevated) • SL: 31.8% ➡️ 35% - emphasis on gloveside target against both LHH/RHH; vs LHH, catcher sets up more middle/out - maybe try some armside vs LHH to dupe batters? • CH: 14% ➡️ 25% - best pitch results in MLB (.167 BAA, .167 SLG, 29% whiff in limited sample size) but can’t be overused - need to tunnel w/ SI… make sure low in/out of zone; see: Whitlock • CU: 8% ➡️ 10% - LHH exclusive offering, tunnels w/ elevated FC/FF - needs to miss low Overall: SI “first” for strikes with a very heavy dosage of SL/CH mixed in vs both LHH/RHH. FC/CB to LHH only. Elevated FF only in certain sequences. I’ve attached some specific videos to further emphasize my points. • Clip #1: Bogaerts whiff on CH • Clip #2: disgusting SLs to RHHs • Clip #3: Priester sinkers (T97 mph) • Clip #4: just pure nastiness Oh, and a friendly reminder: he’s just 24 years old. There is so much potential to tap into here. The stuff, for one, is there and only getting better. My favorite Red Sox pitcher right now is by far Garrett Whitlock. I see a little bit of baby Whitty in Priester’s delivery, frame, and stuff. 👀 — Alrighty, that was a lot lol. I hope everyone enjoyed. If you have questions, comments, or even player requests, feel free to reach out! I am super excited to see what Priester can do in 2025 and beyond. What do you think? ⬇️
0:20

Lots of people are sleeping on Quinn Priester... I have a feeling this dude is going to make an impact with the major league club next year. Let’s talk about it. Adding velo to the sinker (SI) has been a constant emphasis since coming over via trade, and we already saw a minor increase last year. Avg SI velo (2024) 📈 • w/ PIT: 93.0 mph • w/ BOS: 93.8 mph NOTE: Remove his first two appearances where there wasn’t really any changes made, and his avg SI velo now sits at 94.2 mph. Games where SI sat 94+ mph 📈 • w/ PIT: 2 (of 23) • w/ BOS: 5 (of 10) He’s comfortably hit 96 and topped 97 mph for Worcester (seen in video attached), and has been grinding on a velo program this winter as well. Other top velos, just for fun… • FF: 96.3 mph* • SL: 92.3 mph • CU: 83.5 mph* • CH: 92 mph* • FC: 94.4 mph* *indicates top velo was w/ BOS — On top of this, we all know that Bres/Bailey & Co. love their whiff and secondary offerings. Priester took a huge step forward last year in both of these categories. Overall whiff 📈 • w/ PIT: 29.8% • w: BOS: 35.4% Arsenal whiff w/ BOS 📈 • SI: 22% • FF: 30% • FC: 42% • SL: 48% (‼️) • CU: 43%** **hot take: SI/SL combo are his carrying pitches, but his best pitch is his CH — Clearly, there’s something there. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a major usage change. Here’s what I would propose: • FA (FF/SI/FC): 46.3% ➡️ 30% - SI: 20% (“get me over” or “need it” kind of pitch; needs to be for a strike, low in zone; CH plays off it) - FC: 9% (would love to use it more, but had a limited sample size in 2024; start off as a LHH-exclusive like Garett Whitlock showcased; needs to either be elevated (tunnel w/ FF) or down+out (tunnel w/ SL) - FF: 1% (similar to what we saw Bello implement… only deploy in key situations; must be elevated) • SL: 31.8% ➡️ 35% - emphasis on gloveside target against both LHH/RHH; vs LHH, catcher sets up more middle/out - maybe try some armside vs LHH to dupe batters? • CH: 14% ➡️ 25% - best pitch results in MLB (.167 BAA, .167 SLG, 29% whiff in limited sample size) but can’t be overused - need to tunnel w/ SI… make sure low in/out of zone; see: Whitlock • CU: 8% ➡️ 10% - LHH exclusive offering, tunnels w/ elevated FC/FF - needs to miss low Overall: SI “first” for strikes with a very heavy dosage of SL/CH mixed in vs both LHH/RHH. FC/CB to LHH only. Elevated FF only in certain sequences. I’ve attached some specific videos to further emphasize my points. • Clip #1: Bogaerts whiff on CH • Clip #2: disgusting SLs to RHHs • Clip #3: Priester sinkers (T97 mph) • Clip #4: just pure nastiness Oh, and a friendly reminder: he’s just 24 years old. There is so much potential to tap into here. The stuff, for one, is there and only getting better. My favorite Red Sox pitcher right now is by far Garrett Whitlock. I see a little bit of baby Whitty in Priester’s delivery, frame, and stuff. 👀 — Alrighty, that was a lot lol. I hope everyone enjoyed. If you have questions, comments, or even player requests, feel free to reach out! I am super excited to see what Priester can do in 2025 and beyond. What do you think? ⬇️

G.G.

54,654 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

From a sheer stuff standpoint, RHP Cam Leiter (FSU Baseball) has one of the loudest arsenals in this year's Draft class. Was a member of the AAC All-Freshman team selection in 2023 after posting a 4.92 ERA with 80 Ks across 56.2 IP. Leiter's first season at FSU was cut short due to injury, though he showed big time flashes in his 7 starts (35 innings). Worked a 4.63 ERA with 56 Ks to 22 BB. Leiter has a high-waisted, prototypical pitcher's frame at 6'5" and 234-pounds. Has added physicality year-over-year. Compact and explosive delivery with big time arm speed. Attacks from a three-quarter slot with a low release height. Dynamic mover, blocks well with his lead leg and really drives his back hip through. Powerful! Fastball sits in the 94-96 range, but has been up to 99. Jumps out of the hand from his ~5'10" release height and flashes riding life through the zone. Plays up—and is at its best—when located in the top-half of the zone. Also where it gets the most whiffs, and last year it generated a 30% miss rate. Improved command of the offering will make it that much more effective. 55 right now. His most used breaking ball is a high-70s-to-low-80s CB. Plenty of depth with sharp, downward teeth. Almost a true 12-to-6 shape. Will use it against both right and lefthanded hitters, and last year it held opposing hitters to a minuscule .071 average. Generated an impressive 46% miss rate, it's a 60 right now. Leiter's upper-80s-to-low-90s power SL is another effective off-speed offering. Late lateral tilt with some depth, will throw it almost exclusively to RHH. Another pitch that flashes plus, and last year it garnered a 38% miss rate. He threw it just 11% of the time in '24, but Leiter also features an upper-80s-to-low-90s CH. Ample fade to the arm side, though at times it will have more tumbling life than fade. Not to sound like a broken record, but Leiter's CH also flashes plus. 44% miss rate last season. Throws it with conviction. If you catch Leiter on the right day, you could leave the yard with a 55 and three 60s on his pitch mix. The two biggest keys for Leiter will be taking a step forward in the pitchability department—which in turn will make his arsenal that much better—and staying healthy. He certainly has first round upside this July. (🎥: FSU Baseball)
0:13

From a sheer stuff standpoint, RHP Cam Leiter (FSU Baseball) has one of the loudest arsenals in this year's Draft class. Was a member of the AAC All-Freshman team selection in 2023 after posting a 4.92 ERA with 80 Ks across 56.2 IP. Leiter's first season at FSU was cut short due to injury, though he showed big time flashes in his 7 starts (35 innings). Worked a 4.63 ERA with 56 Ks to 22 BB. Leiter has a high-waisted, prototypical pitcher's frame at 6'5" and 234-pounds. Has added physicality year-over-year. Compact and explosive delivery with big time arm speed. Attacks from a three-quarter slot with a low release height. Dynamic mover, blocks well with his lead leg and really drives his back hip through. Powerful! Fastball sits in the 94-96 range, but has been up to 99. Jumps out of the hand from his ~5'10" release height and flashes riding life through the zone. Plays up—and is at its best—when located in the top-half of the zone. Also where it gets the most whiffs, and last year it generated a 30% miss rate. Improved command of the offering will make it that much more effective. 55 right now. His most used breaking ball is a high-70s-to-low-80s CB. Plenty of depth with sharp, downward teeth. Almost a true 12-to-6 shape. Will use it against both right and lefthanded hitters, and last year it held opposing hitters to a minuscule .071 average. Generated an impressive 46% miss rate, it's a 60 right now. Leiter's upper-80s-to-low-90s power SL is another effective off-speed offering. Late lateral tilt with some depth, will throw it almost exclusively to RHH. Another pitch that flashes plus, and last year it garnered a 38% miss rate. He threw it just 11% of the time in '24, but Leiter also features an upper-80s-to-low-90s CH. Ample fade to the arm side, though at times it will have more tumbling life than fade. Not to sound like a broken record, but Leiter's CH also flashes plus. 44% miss rate last season. Throws it with conviction. If you catch Leiter on the right day, you could leave the yard with a 55 and three 60s on his pitch mix. The two biggest keys for Leiter will be taking a step forward in the pitchability department—which in turn will make his arsenal that much better—and staying healthy. He certainly has first round upside this July. (🎥: FSU Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

25,238 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

While he won't toe the rubber this spring for the Hoosiers, RHP Luke Sinnard (Indiana Baseball) is an arm to be familiar with come July. Began his college career at Western Kentucky, but blossomed last year as a Sophomore at Indiana and pitched his way to a 4.27 ERA with 114 Ks (led the Big Ten) to just 25 BB across 86.1 IP. Earned a Second Team All-Big Ten selection. Towering, workhorse frame at 6'8" and 230-lbs. Sinnard attacks from an ultra high-three quarter slot and possesses an outlier release height north of 7-feet. Somewhat of a deep pull here, but his arm slot is a little reminiscent of former College of Charleston RHP William Privette, though not as sling-shotty or true OTT. His FB sits in the 91-94 range (T96) but it plays up thanks to the carry Sinnard is able to get on it through the zone. Last year, it averaged over 2,500 RPMs and over 19" of IVB. Sinnard's low-80s CB is a true bat-misser. Flashes immense depth and almost true 12-to-6 shape with some teeth. He has good feel for the pitch and it is effective against both right and lefthanded hitters. Held opponents to a .118 average and generated a 46% miss rate last spring. Also features an effective high-80s Cut/SL hybrid. Boasts late lateral life with a touch of depth. Gets under the hands of LHH. Another pitch that Sinnard has plus control of. Lastly, Sinnard throws a low-80s Split/CH. Feel for it is inconsistent, but it gets good separation off the FB and at times flashed tumbling life. It's an okay 4th offering. Sinnard has pro-level starter written all over him and even though you won't see him this season, he profiles as a potential 4th-7th round pick in this year's Draft. (📽️: Indiana Baseball)
0:13

While he won't toe the rubber this spring for the Hoosiers, RHP Luke Sinnard (Indiana Baseball) is an arm to be familiar with come July. Began his college career at Western Kentucky, but blossomed last year as a Sophomore at Indiana and pitched his way to a 4.27 ERA with 114 Ks (led the Big Ten) to just 25 BB across 86.1 IP. Earned a Second Team All-Big Ten selection. Towering, workhorse frame at 6'8" and 230-lbs. Sinnard attacks from an ultra high-three quarter slot and possesses an outlier release height north of 7-feet. Somewhat of a deep pull here, but his arm slot is a little reminiscent of former College of Charleston RHP William Privette, though not as sling-shotty or true OTT. His FB sits in the 91-94 range (T96) but it plays up thanks to the carry Sinnard is able to get on it through the zone. Last year, it averaged over 2,500 RPMs and over 19" of IVB. Sinnard's low-80s CB is a true bat-misser. Flashes immense depth and almost true 12-to-6 shape with some teeth. He has good feel for the pitch and it is effective against both right and lefthanded hitters. Held opponents to a .118 average and generated a 46% miss rate last spring. Also features an effective high-80s Cut/SL hybrid. Boasts late lateral life with a touch of depth. Gets under the hands of LHH. Another pitch that Sinnard has plus control of. Lastly, Sinnard throws a low-80s Split/CH. Feel for it is inconsistent, but it gets good separation off the FB and at times flashed tumbling life. It's an okay 4th offering. Sinnard has pro-level starter written all over him and even though you won't see him this season, he profiles as a potential 4th-7th round pick in this year's Draft. (📽️: Indiana Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

36,612 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

LHP Andrew Healy (Duke Baseball) is one of my favorite Sophomore-eligible arms in this year's Draft. Enjoyed an outstanding true Freshman campaign in '23, pitching his way to a 2.32 ERA with 45 K to just 7 BB across 42.2 IP. Great body at 6'6" and 200-lbs. High-waisted with room to fill out. Smooth, aesthetically pleasing operation on the mound. Clean arm stroke and hides the ball well. Attacks from mid-three quarter slot. Pretty low effort delivery. Healy's FB will mostly sit in the 90-93 range, but he has been up to 94/95. It gets on hitters quick and plays particularly well on his arm side/elevated. Little bit of carry to it. Healy has plus command and control of it. His go-to secondary offering is a high-70s CH that on average is 10+ MPH off his FB. Healy maintains his arm speed well and it features serious late tumbling life. Had a 40% miss rate in '23. Would put a 55 on it. Healy features two distinct breaking balls in a high-70s SL and mid-70s CB. SL has long, sweeping action and is particularly deadly against LHH. After throwing it just 5% of the time in '23, Healy this fall has upped his CB usage. It's an okay 4th pitch and at times will flash some depth. Perhaps most interesting about Healy's profile is his ability to generate swings. Last year he posted a 48% overall swing rate and an impressive 70% in-zone swing rate. Overall control/command would grade out as a 60. Healy is a slam dunk starter professionally and could pitch his way into a top-3/4 round Draft choice. (📽️: Duke Baseball)
0:15

LHP Andrew Healy (Duke Baseball) is one of my favorite Sophomore-eligible arms in this year's Draft. Enjoyed an outstanding true Freshman campaign in '23, pitching his way to a 2.32 ERA with 45 K to just 7 BB across 42.2 IP. Great body at 6'6" and 200-lbs. High-waisted with room to fill out. Smooth, aesthetically pleasing operation on the mound. Clean arm stroke and hides the ball well. Attacks from mid-three quarter slot. Pretty low effort delivery. Healy's FB will mostly sit in the 90-93 range, but he has been up to 94/95. It gets on hitters quick and plays particularly well on his arm side/elevated. Little bit of carry to it. Healy has plus command and control of it. His go-to secondary offering is a high-70s CH that on average is 10+ MPH off his FB. Healy maintains his arm speed well and it features serious late tumbling life. Had a 40% miss rate in '23. Would put a 55 on it. Healy features two distinct breaking balls in a high-70s SL and mid-70s CB. SL has long, sweeping action and is particularly deadly against LHH. After throwing it just 5% of the time in '23, Healy this fall has upped his CB usage. It's an okay 4th pitch and at times will flash some depth. Perhaps most interesting about Healy's profile is his ability to generate swings. Last year he posted a 48% overall swing rate and an impressive 70% in-zone swing rate. Overall control/command would grade out as a 60. Healy is a slam dunk starter professionally and could pitch his way into a top-3/4 round Draft choice. (📽️: Duke Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

42,840 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

RHP Cole Leaman (Lehigh Baseball) is an arm I'm really looking forward to following this spring. Fresh off a strong Sophomore season in which he worked a 2.31 ERA with 49 Ks to 23 BB across 46.2 IP. Showed some positive flashes on the Cape. While slightly undersized, Leaman has a strong and athletic build at 6' and 190-lbs. Has put on a lot of good weight over the last couple of years. Leaman has almost a "check point" delivery in which he takes a noticeable side step towards the 1B side, gathers himself and breaks into the rest of his motion. Lengthy arm stroke and attacks from a high-3/4 slot from a low release height. Leaman is a high-level athlete and a dynamic mover on the mound. Sits really well on his back glute and his lead leg block enables him to generate power and drive his back side through. Drop and drive delivery. Little bit of effort, but plenty of arm speed. Leaman's FB sits in the 91-94 range, but it was up to 96 this summer and 98 this fall. Jumps out of his hand from a ~5'3" release height and flashes riding life through the zone. Averaged 15" of carry this summer and 2,361 RPMs. Gets over the barrels of opposing hitters when located in the top-1/2 of the zone, which is where the pitch is at its best. Command can be erratic at times. Would give it a 55. Leaman's most-used off speed pitch is a high-70s-to-low-80s CB. Shape is inconsistent and it can get a little slurvy at times, but he snapped off a handful of really good ones between the spring and summer. When it's at its best, it will flash a bigger shape with sharp, downward tilt. Leaman will also mix in a low-to-mid-80s SL that's distinct in shape. Another pitch he's still gaining a feel for, but like his CB it's also shown big time flashes. Shape of it will vary, but it will sometimes flash plus with sharp, two-plane break (more sweep than depth) and essentially take a late, hard left turn. Rounds out his arsenal with a high-80s cutter and a mid-to-high-80s CH. The former is more intriguing than the latter. Curious to see how much he uses the cutter this spring, threw a couple this summer that had late glove-side life. Leaman has a very intriguing blend of athleticism and stuff, though he'll need to iron out his command and control in order to maximize his upside. As mentioned, it's a bit scattered right now and has hindered him in some starts. 5th-8th round type this July. (📽️: Falmouth Commodores)
0:19

RHP Cole Leaman (Lehigh Baseball) is an arm I'm really looking forward to following this spring. Fresh off a strong Sophomore season in which he worked a 2.31 ERA with 49 Ks to 23 BB across 46.2 IP. Showed some positive flashes on the Cape. While slightly undersized, Leaman has a strong and athletic build at 6' and 190-lbs. Has put on a lot of good weight over the last couple of years. Leaman has almost a "check point" delivery in which he takes a noticeable side step towards the 1B side, gathers himself and breaks into the rest of his motion. Lengthy arm stroke and attacks from a high-3/4 slot from a low release height. Leaman is a high-level athlete and a dynamic mover on the mound. Sits really well on his back glute and his lead leg block enables him to generate power and drive his back side through. Drop and drive delivery. Little bit of effort, but plenty of arm speed. Leaman's FB sits in the 91-94 range, but it was up to 96 this summer and 98 this fall. Jumps out of his hand from a ~5'3" release height and flashes riding life through the zone. Averaged 15" of carry this summer and 2,361 RPMs. Gets over the barrels of opposing hitters when located in the top-1/2 of the zone, which is where the pitch is at its best. Command can be erratic at times. Would give it a 55. Leaman's most-used off speed pitch is a high-70s-to-low-80s CB. Shape is inconsistent and it can get a little slurvy at times, but he snapped off a handful of really good ones between the spring and summer. When it's at its best, it will flash a bigger shape with sharp, downward tilt. Leaman will also mix in a low-to-mid-80s SL that's distinct in shape. Another pitch he's still gaining a feel for, but like his CB it's also shown big time flashes. Shape of it will vary, but it will sometimes flash plus with sharp, two-plane break (more sweep than depth) and essentially take a late, hard left turn. Rounds out his arsenal with a high-80s cutter and a mid-to-high-80s CH. The former is more intriguing than the latter. Curious to see how much he uses the cutter this spring, threw a couple this summer that had late glove-side life. Leaman has a very intriguing blend of athleticism and stuff, though he'll need to iron out his command and control in order to maximize his upside. As mentioned, it's a bit scattered right now and has hindered him in some starts. 5th-8th round type this July. (📽️: Falmouth Commodores)

Peter Flaherty III

26,714 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

RHP Jacob Mayers (LSU Baseball) is an interesting arm in this year's Draft class. Was outstanding as a true Freshman and pitched his way to a 2.02 ERA with 105 Ks to 58 BB across 75.2 innings en route to taking home Southland Conference Pitcher of the Year honors and being named a First Team Freshman All-American. Took a bit of a step back in 2024 and compiled a 4.58 ERA with an SLC-leading 106 Ks to go along with 76 BB in 70.2 IP. Mayers has a projectable, high-waisted frame at 6'5" and 205-pounds. He doesn't have the cleanest or simplest delivery and he'll struggle to repeat it at times. Mayers has a somewhat abbreviated arm stroke and attacks from an over-the-top slot with present arm speed. Front side will sometimes fly open which has led to command issues, but there's some pretty low hanging fruit to clean up in his operation going forward (Ex: getting more into his lower-half, refining it to become more repeatable). Adding strength and explosiveness will be key. Mayers' fastball is his bread-and-butter pitch. It sits in the 92-95 range, but has been up to 97 out of an outlandish 7-foot release height. His release height is certainly a contributing factor here, but the pitch also averaged an eye-popping 24.3" of ride and nearly 2,400 rpm. Mayers threw his heater a whopping 91% of the time and was still able to generate a 35% whiff rate, including a 30% (!) IZ whiff rate, on it. There are plenty of outlier traits, but his command is below-average. If he can up his competitive pitch % and stay in and around the zone on a more consistent basis, it will make it that much more effective. While his FB is the money-maker of his arsenal, Mayers will occasionally mix in a gyro SL in the low-80s that lacks teeth right now. He's still gaining a feel for the pitch and there is work to be done on it going forward, but it could be a potentially above-average offering in the future. 40/45 currently. One of the biggest question marks with Mayers is the development of a third pitch. He mixed in a handful of mid-to-upper-80s and a couple piqued my interest; one showed some fade to the arm side and another flashed late tumbling life. It's clear he isn't comfortable throwing it yet, but this could be the pitch to develop at least to the point where it's serviceable. Mayers right now is very much a work in progress and all signs right now point to him ending up in a relief role long term. However, he's a very fun, moldable ball of clay to try and develop and get the most out of. As the low hanging fruit continues to get cleaned up—whether it be at LSU or in pro ball—polish will hopefully follow. 5th-8th round pick right now. (📽️: Nicholls Baseball)
0:15

RHP Jacob Mayers (LSU Baseball) is an interesting arm in this year's Draft class. Was outstanding as a true Freshman and pitched his way to a 2.02 ERA with 105 Ks to 58 BB across 75.2 innings en route to taking home Southland Conference Pitcher of the Year honors and being named a First Team Freshman All-American. Took a bit of a step back in 2024 and compiled a 4.58 ERA with an SLC-leading 106 Ks to go along with 76 BB in 70.2 IP. Mayers has a projectable, high-waisted frame at 6'5" and 205-pounds. He doesn't have the cleanest or simplest delivery and he'll struggle to repeat it at times. Mayers has a somewhat abbreviated arm stroke and attacks from an over-the-top slot with present arm speed. Front side will sometimes fly open which has led to command issues, but there's some pretty low hanging fruit to clean up in his operation going forward (Ex: getting more into his lower-half, refining it to become more repeatable). Adding strength and explosiveness will be key. Mayers' fastball is his bread-and-butter pitch. It sits in the 92-95 range, but has been up to 97 out of an outlandish 7-foot release height. His release height is certainly a contributing factor here, but the pitch also averaged an eye-popping 24.3" of ride and nearly 2,400 rpm. Mayers threw his heater a whopping 91% of the time and was still able to generate a 35% whiff rate, including a 30% (!) IZ whiff rate, on it. There are plenty of outlier traits, but his command is below-average. If he can up his competitive pitch % and stay in and around the zone on a more consistent basis, it will make it that much more effective. While his FB is the money-maker of his arsenal, Mayers will occasionally mix in a gyro SL in the low-80s that lacks teeth right now. He's still gaining a feel for the pitch and there is work to be done on it going forward, but it could be a potentially above-average offering in the future. 40/45 currently. One of the biggest question marks with Mayers is the development of a third pitch. He mixed in a handful of mid-to-upper-80s and a couple piqued my interest; one showed some fade to the arm side and another flashed late tumbling life. It's clear he isn't comfortable throwing it yet, but this could be the pitch to develop at least to the point where it's serviceable. Mayers right now is very much a work in progress and all signs right now point to him ending up in a relief role long term. However, he's a very fun, moldable ball of clay to try and develop and get the most out of. As the low hanging fruit continues to get cleaned up—whether it be at LSU or in pro ball—polish will hopefully follow. 5th-8th round pick right now. (📽️: Nicholls Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

43,289 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Will Ray (Wake Forest Baseball) was one of the most dominant relievers on the Cape this summer. The former two-way showcased a high 80s - low 90s sinker from a sidearm slot with plenty of run and a sweeping slider that limited hitters to an average of 68.2 mph EV and a 0.59 xFIP (per Anthony Marotta as of 7/19). It's a plus pitch that was used more than the sinker and acts as his best offering. He also mixed in a splitter with some sink to get miss in and out of the zone. He appeared in 14 games for the Whitecaps on the Cape, limiting hard contact and base-runners with a 1.18 WHIP, 23 K/2 BB in 22 IP. Ray's stuff played well in the lower half of the zone but was susceptible to the long ball at times. Perhaps adding a four-seam FB that could get some chase at the top of the zone could help his overall profile. As of 7/23, Ray was 100th percentile in hard-hit % and 93rd percentile in opponent average exit speed (per Anthony Marotta). Ray made significant progress in his control and as a result, dropped his 4.9 BB/9 in 44 IP last spring to just 0.8 BB/9 in 22 IP this summer in the CCBL. He was able to make some of the top offensive college bats look foolish (Kurland - sinker, Burress - slider, Martinez - splitter; shown below).
0:16

Will Ray (Wake Forest Baseball) was one of the most dominant relievers on the Cape this summer. The former two-way showcased a high 80s - low 90s sinker from a sidearm slot with plenty of run and a sweeping slider that limited hitters to an average of 68.2 mph EV and a 0.59 xFIP (per Anthony Marotta as of 7/19). It's a plus pitch that was used more than the sinker and acts as his best offering. He also mixed in a splitter with some sink to get miss in and out of the zone. He appeared in 14 games for the Whitecaps on the Cape, limiting hard contact and base-runners with a 1.18 WHIP, 23 K/2 BB in 22 IP. Ray's stuff played well in the lower half of the zone but was susceptible to the long ball at times. Perhaps adding a four-seam FB that could get some chase at the top of the zone could help his overall profile. As of 7/23, Ray was 100th percentile in hard-hit % and 93rd percentile in opponent average exit speed (per Anthony Marotta). Ray made significant progress in his control and as a result, dropped his 4.9 BB/9 in 44 IP last spring to just 0.8 BB/9 in 22 IP this summer in the CCBL. He was able to make some of the top offensive college bats look foolish (Kurland - sinker, Burress - slider, Martinez - splitter; shown below).

Ethan Kagno

35,992 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Shifting focus to 2025, RHP Tyler Bremner (UC Santa Barbara Baseball) is one of my favorite College arms in the class. As a freshman, Bremner split time between the bullpen and the rotation and pitched his way to a modest 5.37 ERA with an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio of 80-to-17 across 55.1 innings. Bremner has a lean, athletic build at 6'2" and 180-lbs. He has room to fill out physically and as he does, his already-electric stuff will only tick up. Bremner has a low maintenance, under control operation with present arm speed. He attacks hitters from a high-three quarter slot and his fastball sits in the 93-96 range and tops out at 98. It has elite riding life (averaged over 21" of IVB in '23) and is most effective when located in the top-half of the zone. Between its velocity and shape, it is a 60-grade offering. He boasts two quality secondary offerings in a mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider. Bremner’s changeup is the more polished of the two, but his sweeping slider has plus potential. In 2023, Bremner’s changeup generated an impressive 48% miss rate. He has advanced feel for the offering, and he will throw it to both left and righthanded hitters. It plays well off his mid-90s fastball and flashes big time late tumbling life and some fade to the arm side. Bremner threw his slider just 12% of the time in 2023, but it has the chance to be a true out pitch in the future. It features ample late sweeping life as well as some depth, and is a real weapon especially against righthanded hitters. It has reportedly taken a step forward this fall and could be a lethal offering in 2024. Between his plus control, low effort delivery, and the chance to have three plus or better pitches, Bremner profiles as a starter professionally. He has a chance to become a household name this spring and with two strong seasons pitching in the rotation, Bremner has 1st Round upside in 2025. (📽️: UC Santa Barbara Baseball)
0:19

Shifting focus to 2025, RHP Tyler Bremner (UC Santa Barbara Baseball) is one of my favorite College arms in the class. As a freshman, Bremner split time between the bullpen and the rotation and pitched his way to a modest 5.37 ERA with an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio of 80-to-17 across 55.1 innings. Bremner has a lean, athletic build at 6'2" and 180-lbs. He has room to fill out physically and as he does, his already-electric stuff will only tick up. Bremner has a low maintenance, under control operation with present arm speed. He attacks hitters from a high-three quarter slot and his fastball sits in the 93-96 range and tops out at 98. It has elite riding life (averaged over 21" of IVB in '23) and is most effective when located in the top-half of the zone. Between its velocity and shape, it is a 60-grade offering. He boasts two quality secondary offerings in a mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider. Bremner’s changeup is the more polished of the two, but his sweeping slider has plus potential. In 2023, Bremner’s changeup generated an impressive 48% miss rate. He has advanced feel for the offering, and he will throw it to both left and righthanded hitters. It plays well off his mid-90s fastball and flashes big time late tumbling life and some fade to the arm side. Bremner threw his slider just 12% of the time in 2023, but it has the chance to be a true out pitch in the future. It features ample late sweeping life as well as some depth, and is a real weapon especially against righthanded hitters. It has reportedly taken a step forward this fall and could be a lethal offering in 2024. Between his plus control, low effort delivery, and the chance to have three plus or better pitches, Bremner profiles as a starter professionally. He has a chance to become a household name this spring and with two strong seasons pitching in the rotation, Bremner has 1st Round upside in 2025. (📽️: UC Santa Barbara Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

47,375 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

🚨EXCLUSIVE VIDEO and EXPOSÉ: CHRISTOPHER NIENHUIS CAUGHT AS*AULTING A FEMALE STUDENT BEFORE SEPARATE ST*BBING INCIDENT: ENTIRE FAMILY HAS HISTORY OF TARGETING The same advocates for Karmelo Anthony are now defending Christopher Nienhuis, the teen who st*bbed another teen in a North Texas community park last year. They claim “victim” and are now claiming that his father is also a “victim, despite the fact that Mark Nienhuis was just charged with aggravated As*ault with a Deadly Weapon Causing Serious Bodily Injury and EIGHT counts of Aggravated As*ault with a Deadly Weapon after his gunfire struck his OWN 11-year-old daughter. However, I have spent countless hours digging deeply into the family and interviewing those close by in Midlothian. This was prompted by the fact that Dominque Alexander (a previous spokesperson for Karmelo Anthony) claimed Christopher was a “victim” and his family had suffered from “racism” and “targeting”. Dominque Alexander, a career criminal himself, has defended all the wrong people in an effort to position himself in the spotlight, and I immediately knew that what he claimed was nonsense. His voice always raises a red flag. I was right. Christopher Nienhuis, and his brothers, have a past of harassment, fighting and causing trouble within the community. Christopher, who is currently on house arrest for a st*bbing and awaiting trial, physically as*aulted a fellow student in October, 2024. I have obtained video footage of the as*ault. According to witnesses I have spoke with and the obtained report, Christopher grabbed the female student’s cell phone and threw it across the room. He also broke the victim’s laptop. He then began to punch the female till she was finally underneath him. This is where the recording begins below. She was hit in the head but thankfully was not seriously injured. His family did later try to make excuses for Christopher and claimed that the female student had “tried to wrap the charging cord around Christopher’s head”. The police stated that Christopher never made this claim, and suffered no marks. It would seem that holding their son accountable tends to be an ongoing issue, considering Mark (his father) posted Christopher’s bail after the parking lot stabbing. After the altercation in the classroom, the victim was scared to attend class, and attended school online, causing her to miss the rest of her high school experience. Also, following the classroom fight, Markel Nienhuis (the older brother) posted a childhood photo of his brothers on Snapchat with the caption “Call 1-800-Whoop THAT H0”. Also, on one of the female victim’s Instagram lives, Jayden Nienhuis (another brother) posted “I’ll use the brick method on all y’all” and “Ima touch all ya’ll when ya’ll sleep”. From April of 2022, I have also obtained a video of all of the Nienhuis brothers fighting. According to the witness I obtained the video from, two large groups were fighting eachother. And you can visibly seen Chris Nienhuis (black T-shirt) hitting a boy in a blue hoodie in the face with a rock. In a third video I obtained, Chris is fighting in a class hallway. According to a source, this fight ended up continuing in the school bathroom. And according to the witness, Chris and his friends reportedly made a few edits of the student he fought and shared it online in an effort to bully him. So while these so-called “advocates” try to paint this as a good family being unfairly targeted, here’s the reality: A little girl has been shot - by her own father. That father now sits in a hospital facing multiple violent felony charges. And his son - the one they’re calling a “victim” - is awaiting trial for stabbing another teenager and nearly killing him. This seems to be an unfortunate family pattern. And others are suffering the consequences.
0:12

🚨EXCLUSIVE VIDEO and EXPOSÉ: CHRISTOPHER NIENHUIS CAUGHT AS*AULTING A FEMALE STUDENT BEFORE SEPARATE ST*BBING INCIDENT: ENTIRE FAMILY HAS HISTORY OF TARGETING The same advocates for Karmelo Anthony are now defending Christopher Nienhuis, the teen who st*bbed another teen in a North Texas community park last year. They claim “victim” and are now claiming that his father is also a “victim, despite the fact that Mark Nienhuis was just charged with aggravated As*ault with a Deadly Weapon Causing Serious Bodily Injury and EIGHT counts of Aggravated As*ault with a Deadly Weapon after his gunfire struck his OWN 11-year-old daughter. However, I have spent countless hours digging deeply into the family and interviewing those close by in Midlothian. This was prompted by the fact that Dominque Alexander (a previous spokesperson for Karmelo Anthony) claimed Christopher was a “victim” and his family had suffered from “racism” and “targeting”. Dominque Alexander, a career criminal himself, has defended all the wrong people in an effort to position himself in the spotlight, and I immediately knew that what he claimed was nonsense. His voice always raises a red flag. I was right. Christopher Nienhuis, and his brothers, have a past of harassment, fighting and causing trouble within the community. Christopher, who is currently on house arrest for a st*bbing and awaiting trial, physically as*aulted a fellow student in October, 2024. I have obtained video footage of the as*ault. According to witnesses I have spoke with and the obtained report, Christopher grabbed the female student’s cell phone and threw it across the room. He also broke the victim’s laptop. He then began to punch the female till she was finally underneath him. This is where the recording begins below. She was hit in the head but thankfully was not seriously injured. His family did later try to make excuses for Christopher and claimed that the female student had “tried to wrap the charging cord around Christopher’s head”. The police stated that Christopher never made this claim, and suffered no marks. It would seem that holding their son accountable tends to be an ongoing issue, considering Mark (his father) posted Christopher’s bail after the parking lot stabbing. After the altercation in the classroom, the victim was scared to attend class, and attended school online, causing her to miss the rest of her high school experience. Also, following the classroom fight, Markel Nienhuis (the older brother) posted a childhood photo of his brothers on Snapchat with the caption “Call 1-800-Whoop THAT H0”. Also, on one of the female victim’s Instagram lives, Jayden Nienhuis (another brother) posted “I’ll use the brick method on all y’all” and “Ima touch all ya’ll when ya’ll sleep”. From April of 2022, I have also obtained a video of all of the Nienhuis brothers fighting. According to the witness I obtained the video from, two large groups were fighting eachother. And you can visibly seen Chris Nienhuis (black T-shirt) hitting a boy in a blue hoodie in the face with a rock. In a third video I obtained, Chris is fighting in a class hallway. According to a source, this fight ended up continuing in the school bathroom. And according to the witness, Chris and his friends reportedly made a few edits of the student he fought and shared it online in an effort to bully him. So while these so-called “advocates” try to paint this as a good family being unfairly targeted, here’s the reality: A little girl has been shot - by her own father. That father now sits in a hospital facing multiple violent felony charges. And his son - the one they’re calling a “victim” - is awaiting trial for stabbing another teenager and nearly killing him. This seems to be an unfortunate family pattern. And others are suffering the consequences.

Sarah Fields

86,786 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

‡ The Puma in the Sam F. Davis Stakes A three-year-old colt named The Puma made his debut at Gulfstream in a 7f. MSW race on January 10th. He raced up on the pace and held well to finish 2nd behind the Mott-trained first-starter Chief Wallabee, while 9 lengths clear of the 3rd-place finisher. It was a promising performance, and the colt recorded an 86 Beyer figure. He was entered in an 8.5f. MSW at Gulfstream on Saturday, and was listed as the 7/5 favorite. However, his connections chose to scratch the colt, and instead contest the 8.5f. Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, against tougher company, and over a different track surface. Will it prove to have been the correct choice? Well, if providing short-term thrills for the owner(s) is the goal, then perhaps. But in terms of the development of the horse, I would say that the answer is probably not. It is possible that he will surprise me by running well, and improving further in subsequent races, without missing a beat. But I am partial to classical, old-school training methods, typically employed by the very best trainers, which include more gradual step-ups in class, and strong foundations, or "bottoms". To be fair, trainers these days are often under great pressure from their owners, especially with young colts, and they have much more limited options than those who trained back in the '70s and '80s. Charlie Whittingham raced Sunday Silence four times in MSW and Alw. races before placing his future HOF Champion into stakes company. The undefeated HOF filly Personal Ensign, undefeated through 13 starts, competed in just one stakes race through her first four starts for Shug McGaughey. Today, there are fewer options available, and particularly in the form of allowance races beyond sprint distances. This is partly due to the excessive number of restricted stakes races available to two and three-year-old runners, which has had the effect of displacing what were once more natural, less taxing, and ultimately beneficial developmental patterns. Of course there are horses that are able to overcome less than ideal development, but many others, often forgotten, fall by the wayside, either due to physical and/or mental setbacks that result from rushed programs. The breed-to-sell paradigm is a big catalyst, as is the fever that afflicts too many owners, namely KY Derby fever. *** In terms of stamina, The Puma's pedigree is encouraging, at least superficially, as his young sire, Essential Quality, was a Travers winner over 10f., and a Belmont winner over 12f., while his dam, Eve of War, won up to 9f. He is the first foal to race from his dam. But from what I can discern from the replays of of his race, and the available clips and images on the OBS site (he was a $150k purchase through last year's April sale), I'm not confident that he will ultimately stay much beyond a mile, and with just one race under his belt, the Sam F. Davis may prove to be a stiff challenge. My concerns revolve mainly around two characteristics, his action and body type. Though not as extreme as those which I have highlighted in previous posts, The Puma does display distorted action, as can be seen in the attached clip of the finish of his lone race. He is on the right (turquoise cap). There are distortions in both front legs, and such inefficient action can have the effect of limiting distance capabilities, especially with speed horses. The second characteristic is that he appears to be a strongly-made colt. If you watch the second clip, from his OBS walk video, you should be able to see that he appears to have a muscular shoulder, and a fairly wide chest. Taken together, The Puma's action and body type are more likely to be found in sprinters than "two-turn" horses, and as suggested above, I would be surprised if he were ultimately able to stay effectively over Classic distances. In terms of pedigree, The Puma should have no trouble with the 8.5f. distance of the Sam F. Davis. But given all of the above, and an honest pace, I'm of the opinion that he is unlikely to win. It will, in any case, be interesting to see how he fares, and how he develops over the coming months.
0:07

‡ The Puma in the Sam F. Davis Stakes A three-year-old colt named The Puma made his debut at Gulfstream in a 7f. MSW race on January 10th. He raced up on the pace and held well to finish 2nd behind the Mott-trained first-starter Chief Wallabee, while 9 lengths clear of the 3rd-place finisher. It was a promising performance, and the colt recorded an 86 Beyer figure. He was entered in an 8.5f. MSW at Gulfstream on Saturday, and was listed as the 7/5 favorite. However, his connections chose to scratch the colt, and instead contest the 8.5f. Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, against tougher company, and over a different track surface. Will it prove to have been the correct choice? Well, if providing short-term thrills for the owner(s) is the goal, then perhaps. But in terms of the development of the horse, I would say that the answer is probably not. It is possible that he will surprise me by running well, and improving further in subsequent races, without missing a beat. But I am partial to classical, old-school training methods, typically employed by the very best trainers, which include more gradual step-ups in class, and strong foundations, or "bottoms". To be fair, trainers these days are often under great pressure from their owners, especially with young colts, and they have much more limited options than those who trained back in the '70s and '80s. Charlie Whittingham raced Sunday Silence four times in MSW and Alw. races before placing his future HOF Champion into stakes company. The undefeated HOF filly Personal Ensign, undefeated through 13 starts, competed in just one stakes race through her first four starts for Shug McGaughey. Today, there are fewer options available, and particularly in the form of allowance races beyond sprint distances. This is partly due to the excessive number of restricted stakes races available to two and three-year-old runners, which has had the effect of displacing what were once more natural, less taxing, and ultimately beneficial developmental patterns. Of course there are horses that are able to overcome less than ideal development, but many others, often forgotten, fall by the wayside, either due to physical and/or mental setbacks that result from rushed programs. The breed-to-sell paradigm is a big catalyst, as is the fever that afflicts too many owners, namely KY Derby fever. *** In terms of stamina, The Puma's pedigree is encouraging, at least superficially, as his young sire, Essential Quality, was a Travers winner over 10f., and a Belmont winner over 12f., while his dam, Eve of War, won up to 9f. He is the first foal to race from his dam. But from what I can discern from the replays of of his race, and the available clips and images on the OBS site (he was a $150k purchase through last year's April sale), I'm not confident that he will ultimately stay much beyond a mile, and with just one race under his belt, the Sam F. Davis may prove to be a stiff challenge. My concerns revolve mainly around two characteristics, his action and body type. Though not as extreme as those which I have highlighted in previous posts, The Puma does display distorted action, as can be seen in the attached clip of the finish of his lone race. He is on the right (turquoise cap). There are distortions in both front legs, and such inefficient action can have the effect of limiting distance capabilities, especially with speed horses. The second characteristic is that he appears to be a strongly-made colt. If you watch the second clip, from his OBS walk video, you should be able to see that he appears to have a muscular shoulder, and a fairly wide chest. Taken together, The Puma's action and body type are more likely to be found in sprinters than "two-turn" horses, and as suggested above, I would be surprised if he were ultimately able to stay effectively over Classic distances. In terms of pedigree, The Puma should have no trouble with the 8.5f. distance of the Sam F. Davis. But given all of the above, and an honest pace, I'm of the opinion that he is unlikely to win. It will, in any case, be interesting to see how he fares, and how he develops over the coming months.

Tinky

13,182 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

A Citadel quant sat down next to me at Verve on Gough and asked why my laptop had four terminals open I was scanning Polymarket. Four panes. Each one a different agent. He was killing time before a flight. Saw the screens. "Is that a multi-agent setup on prediction markets. Who's orchestrating" Claude. One prompt per agent. They don't share memory. Only a queue file. He pulled up a chair. "Walk me through. I do this for equities at work. I want to see your agent separation" Agent 1 is the scanner. I piped raw JSON from the official Polymarket CLI straight into Claude and told it to score every live market on three things. Edge against my probability estimate. Book depth on both sides. Hours to resolution. Thresholds kill 93% of markets before the brain ever sees them. Edge under 7 cents gone. Depth under $500 gone. Under 4 hours to resolution gone. Over 168 gone. 487 live markets collapse to 35. "Seven cents is your transaction cost buffer" Yes. Below that the gas and spread eat the trade. A green fill popped. +$52 on a BTC dominance market. "And the brain" Agent 2. Runs four checks on every survivor. Base rate from history. News in the last six hours. Whether any of the 47 top wallets are currently holding. And a disposition check - is the crowd making a known cognitive error. Three out of four must agree. Otherwise drop it. 86 million trades. I let Claude rank every wallet with 100+ fills and a 70%+ win rate. It returned 47 names in four minutes. Top 20 wallets made more than the bottom 13,000 combined. "Concentration like that means the signal is there. Most retail books look like a normal curve. Yours looks like power law" Kelly sizing does the rest. Capped at quarter Kelly. If f-star goes negative the trade dies no matter how confident I feel. "Overbet once and the bankroll is gone. You respect that. Good" Agent 3 is execution. Three strategies pulled out of a 53k line Typescript repo. Arbitrage across related markets. Convergence when price moves toward my estimate. Whale copy with a 60 second delay on the 47 wallets. Two agents agree full position. One agent only half. Disagreement no trade. "What did you cut" Sports. 52% win rate. Already priced in before the scanner flags it. Markets under $50k in depth. Slippage makes every edge a coin flip. Holding to settlement. The top wallets exit at 73% of max profit every time. I copied that. Agent 4 watches exits. Three triggers. Target hit at 85% of expected move. Volume spike 3x the ten minute average. Thesis stale 24 hours with no movement. "91% of the smart wallets exit before resolution. That's the trade" Yeah. Being right is not the same as being profitable. Setup: Claude API $20 Hetzner VPS $5 Four repos free Total $25 a month $200 seed. 27 days ago. $14,300 now. 271 trades. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. Copy here: "How long did the build take" Two weekends. One to wire the scanner and the CLI. One to get the agents talking through the queue file. He watched the volume exit trigger fire on a Fed cut market. Position closed at 0.71. +$184. "Nobody at my shop runs four agents on their own money. We run eight on the firm's. You got the same structure on a laptop for the price of a sandwich a month" He asked for the repos. I sent them. He messaged me from the gate. "Publishing this tomorrow. My PM is going to ask me why I didn't do it first" I told him his PM already has a Bloomberg. That's the problem.
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A Citadel quant sat down next to me at Verve on Gough and asked why my laptop had four terminals open I was scanning Polymarket. Four panes. Each one a different agent. He was killing time before a flight. Saw the screens. "Is that a multi-agent setup on prediction markets. Who's orchestrating" Claude. One prompt per agent. They don't share memory. Only a queue file. He pulled up a chair. "Walk me through. I do this for equities at work. I want to see your agent separation" Agent 1 is the scanner. I piped raw JSON from the official Polymarket CLI straight into Claude and told it to score every live market on three things. Edge against my probability estimate. Book depth on both sides. Hours to resolution. Thresholds kill 93% of markets before the brain ever sees them. Edge under 7 cents gone. Depth under $500 gone. Under 4 hours to resolution gone. Over 168 gone. 487 live markets collapse to 35. "Seven cents is your transaction cost buffer" Yes. Below that the gas and spread eat the trade. A green fill popped. +$52 on a BTC dominance market. "And the brain" Agent 2. Runs four checks on every survivor. Base rate from history. News in the last six hours. Whether any of the 47 top wallets are currently holding. And a disposition check - is the crowd making a known cognitive error. Three out of four must agree. Otherwise drop it. 86 million trades. I let Claude rank every wallet with 100+ fills and a 70%+ win rate. It returned 47 names in four minutes. Top 20 wallets made more than the bottom 13,000 combined. "Concentration like that means the signal is there. Most retail books look like a normal curve. Yours looks like power law" Kelly sizing does the rest. Capped at quarter Kelly. If f-star goes negative the trade dies no matter how confident I feel. "Overbet once and the bankroll is gone. You respect that. Good" Agent 3 is execution. Three strategies pulled out of a 53k line Typescript repo. Arbitrage across related markets. Convergence when price moves toward my estimate. Whale copy with a 60 second delay on the 47 wallets. Two agents agree full position. One agent only half. Disagreement no trade. "What did you cut" Sports. 52% win rate. Already priced in before the scanner flags it. Markets under $50k in depth. Slippage makes every edge a coin flip. Holding to settlement. The top wallets exit at 73% of max profit every time. I copied that. Agent 4 watches exits. Three triggers. Target hit at 85% of expected move. Volume spike 3x the ten minute average. Thesis stale 24 hours with no movement. "91% of the smart wallets exit before resolution. That's the trade" Yeah. Being right is not the same as being profitable. Setup: Claude API $20 Hetzner VPS $5 Four repos free Total $25 a month $200 seed. 27 days ago. $14,300 now. 271 trades. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. Copy here: "How long did the build take" Two weekends. One to wire the scanner and the CLI. One to get the agents talking through the queue file. He watched the volume exit trigger fire on a Fed cut market. Position closed at 0.71. +$184. "Nobody at my shop runs four agents on their own money. We run eight on the firm's. You got the same structure on a laptop for the price of a sandwich a month" He asked for the repos. I sent them. He messaged me from the gate. "Publishing this tomorrow. My PM is going to ask me why I didn't do it first" I told him his PM already has a Bloomberg. That's the problem.

Lunar

29,547 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten