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🇺🇸 Draining the emergency oil reserve past its operational floor doesn't just leave America exposed, it risks infrastructure failure in the underground caverns where the oil is stored. Philip Pilkington has run the numbers, and they don't add up. "If they want to continue past July, SPR releases until... show more

Mario Nawfal

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89,497 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸 America's oil reserves hit bottom in 11 weeks. Right before the midterms. Economist Philip Pilkington runs the math with China back in the market buying oil. The congressionally approved SPR minimum arrives in 4 to 5 weeks, late August. The operational floor follows by the start of October. Pilkington believes the administration actually had a plan: the Beijing meeting, the MOU, Chinese import cuts, all calculated to keep energy markets stable through the midterms: "He tears up the MOU, and now the whole plan makes no sense anymore. The numbers don't work. This is classic Trump administration to me." A plan built to survive until November, destroyed by its own author in July. The clock it started is still running. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 America's oil reserves hit bottom in 11 weeks. Right before the midterms. Economist Philip Pilkington runs the math with China back in the market buying oil. The congressionally approved SPR minimum arrives in 4 to 5 weeks, late August. The operational floor follows by the start of October. Pilkington believes the administration actually had a plan: the Beijing meeting, the MOU, Chinese import cuts, all calculated to keep energy markets stable through the midterms: "He tears up the MOU, and now the whole plan makes no sense anymore. The numbers don't work. This is classic Trump administration to me." A plan built to survive until November, destroyed by its own author in July. The clock it started is still running. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

62,868 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸 The advisors keep saying "Sir, it's under control" and Trump keeps believing them. Economist Philip Pilkington argues the SPR is masking a brewing disaster while energy prices stay artificially suppressed. "The longer you hold these prices down, the quicker the SPR empties." When it runs dry, inflation spikes, rates follow, and nobody in the room warned him. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 The advisors keep saying "Sir, it's under control" and Trump keeps believing them. Economist Philip Pilkington argues the SPR is masking a brewing disaster while energy prices stay artificially suppressed. "The longer you hold these prices down, the quicker the SPR empties." When it runs dry, inflation spikes, rates follow, and nobody in the room warned him. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

56,751 views • 2 months ago

🇮🇷 The real price of crude could be around $160, and the only thing holding it down is a managed ceiling. Economist Philip Pilkington says the price you see has drifted far from actual supply and demand, and a full escalation could send it past $200 the moment the grip slips: "They've been able to contain it within the 80 to 90 window." Every cap holds until the day it doesn't, and we may be closing in on that day. Philip Pilkington

🇮🇷 The real price of crude could be around $160, and the only thing holding it down is a managed ceiling. Economist Philip Pilkington says the price you see has drifted far from actual supply and demand, and a full escalation could send it past $200 the moment the grip slips: "They've been able to contain it within the 80 to 90 window." Every cap holds until the day it doesn't, and we may be closing in on that day. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

147,506 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸 What happens if the world suddenly loses a large share of its oil supply? Economist Philip Pilkington says governments have already discussed emergency plans that could include fuel rationing, QR codes to control who can buy fuel, and even using the military to transport children to school to reduce civilian fuel use. "We have a pretty good template for this in the lockdowns." Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 What happens if the world suddenly loses a large share of its oil supply? Economist Philip Pilkington says governments have already discussed emergency plans that could include fuel rationing, QR codes to control who can buy fuel, and even using the military to transport children to school to reduce civilian fuel use. "We have a pretty good template for this in the lockdowns." Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

89,884 views • 2 months ago

🚨NEW EPISODE OF GOING UNDERGROUND⚡️ Iran War: Trump’s Oil Market Manipulation & The Breakdown of US Dollar Hegemony (Philip Pilkington) How has Donald Trump and the US mainstream media manipulated the oil markets to keep energy prices artificially suppressed? How has the war on Iran accelerated the end of US dollar hegemony and the rise of multipolarity? What deal was struck with China🇨🇳 to save the world from a catastrophic oil shock? All this and more on this episode of Going Underground with Philip Pilkington

🚨NEW EPISODE OF GOING UNDERGROUND⚡️ Iran War: Trump’s Oil Market Manipulation & The Breakdown of US Dollar Hegemony (Philip Pilkington) How has Donald Trump and the US mainstream media manipulated the oil markets to keep energy prices artificially suppressed? How has the war on Iran accelerated the end of US dollar hegemony and the rise of multipolarity? What deal was struck with China🇨🇳 to save the world from a catastrophic oil shock? All this and more on this episode of Going Underground with Philip Pilkington

Going Underground

122,472 views • 1 month ago

The real price of oil may be hiding in plain sight. Economist & Investment Strategist Philip Pilkington argues the physical crack spread tells a very different story from headline crude prices. Refinery margins suggest the market is still behaving as though oil costs roughly $100 to $110 a barrel, even as futures point much lower. In Pilkington's view, physical demand is exposing what financial markets are obscuring. Philip Pilkington

The real price of oil may be hiding in plain sight. Economist & Investment Strategist Philip Pilkington argues the physical crack spread tells a very different story from headline crude prices. Refinery margins suggest the market is still behaving as though oil costs roughly $100 to $110 a barrel, even as futures point much lower. In Pilkington's view, physical demand is exposing what financial markets are obscuring. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

78,365 views • 2 months ago

🇮🇷 Pipeline strikes are a waste of time, and Iran almost certainly knows it. Economist Philip Pilkington breaks down exactly where a real attack would land if Tehran decides to escalate: "The best way for Iran to screw around with Gulf oil production and exports is to attack either the refineries or the crude oil fields themselves." Pipelines get patched in weeks. Refineries and fields stay down for months or years. And the playbook already exists, Ukraine is running it on Russia right now. Philip Pilkington

🇮🇷 Pipeline strikes are a waste of time, and Iran almost certainly knows it. Economist Philip Pilkington breaks down exactly where a real attack would land if Tehran decides to escalate: "The best way for Iran to screw around with Gulf oil production and exports is to attack either the refineries or the crude oil fields themselves." Pipelines get patched in weeks. Refineries and fields stay down for months or years. And the playbook already exists, Ukraine is running it on Russia right now. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

162,203 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸 The robots trading oil believe whatever Trump posts. Economist Philip Pilkington explains the machine driving the manipulation. Most oil futures trades are already algorithmic, heading toward all of them, and the algorithms aren't as smart as anyone assumes. Drop a headline saying a deal is imminent or oil is flowing through Hormuz, and the machines read Axios or a presidential post as credible news, then trade on it instantly. Pilkington has been making this case since the Red Sea crisis, back when people called it a lunatic theory. Now Tucker Carlson is citing it, and the theory that sounded crazy is simply how the market works. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 The robots trading oil believe whatever Trump posts. Economist Philip Pilkington explains the machine driving the manipulation. Most oil futures trades are already algorithmic, heading toward all of them, and the algorithms aren't as smart as anyone assumes. Drop a headline saying a deal is imminent or oil is flowing through Hormuz, and the machines read Axios or a presidential post as credible news, then trade on it instantly. Pilkington has been making this case since the Red Sea crisis, back when people called it a lunatic theory. Now Tucker Carlson is citing it, and the theory that sounded crazy is simply how the market works. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

89,116 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸 Thirteen full days of global oil supply have already vanished from the market, and most people are still arguing about conspiracy theories. Philip Pilkington cut through the noise and went straight to the IEA data. "Daily consumption is 100 million barrels of oil a day. So 13 days, 13 full days have been taken off the market so far." The strategic reserves exist, but they were never built to plug a hole this size. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 Thirteen full days of global oil supply have already vanished from the market, and most people are still arguing about conspiracy theories. Philip Pilkington cut through the noise and went straight to the IEA data. "Daily consumption is 100 million barrels of oil a day. So 13 days, 13 full days have been taken off the market so far." The strategic reserves exist, but they were never built to plug a hole this size. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

79,091 views • 2 months ago

🇨🇳 China could be using its strategic oil reserves to buy time. Economist Philip Pilkington believes Beijing is leaning on its strategic petroleum reserves to cushion the impact of disruptions around the Strait. He argues China rarely draws on these reserves without a clear strategic calculation, suggesting leaders see the current calm as temporary rather than permanent. Philip Pilkington

🇨🇳 China could be using its strategic oil reserves to buy time. Economist Philip Pilkington believes Beijing is leaning on its strategic petroleum reserves to cushion the impact of disruptions around the Strait. He argues China rarely draws on these reserves without a clear strategic calculation, suggesting leaders see the current calm as temporary rather than permanent. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

61,236 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸🇨🇳 China just ended the oil bailouts, and the math points toward a 2008-sized recession or worse. Economist Philip Pilkington lays out why the market's shock absorbers are gone. The Chinese have effectively said no more bailouts, turning their import tap back on and sending refined products into the world, which rebalances supply but drives the price of crude up. Add a clogged Strait of Hormuz for at least a couple more weeks of hostility, a drained SPR, and a blown-out crack spread, and the picture darkens fast. "If this keeps going, we're going to have a depression or something. At the very least we're going to have a massive recession of the size that we saw in 2008, 2009." The MOU may crawl back on track eventually, Pilkington says. The economic damage already in motion doesn't wait for it. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸🇨🇳 China just ended the oil bailouts, and the math points toward a 2008-sized recession or worse. Economist Philip Pilkington lays out why the market's shock absorbers are gone. The Chinese have effectively said no more bailouts, turning their import tap back on and sending refined products into the world, which rebalances supply but drives the price of crude up. Add a clogged Strait of Hormuz for at least a couple more weeks of hostility, a drained SPR, and a blown-out crack spread, and the picture darkens fast. "If this keeps going, we're going to have a depression or something. At the very least we're going to have a massive recession of the size that we saw in 2008, 2009." The MOU may crawl back on track eventually, Pilkington says. The economic damage already in motion doesn't wait for it. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

98,465 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Philip Pilkington believes the biggest mistake Washington could make is targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. Not because it would fail to inflict damage. But because it could lock the global economy into a crisis that lasts far longer than the war itself. According to Philip, oil markets have remained surprisingly calm because investors still assume escalation can be contained. He argues that assumption disappears the moment energy infrastructure becomes a battlefield. His point is that repairing pipelines, export terminals and refineries takes months, sometimes more than a year. Every strike extends the disruption. Even if the fighting ends quickly, the economic consequences don't. Philip also believes Washington has relied on the ability to repeatedly de-escalate whenever oil prices threatened to spike. If that option disappears, he argues, markets will be forced to confront risks they have largely ignored. His warning goes beyond oil. He believes a prolonged energy shock would hit major importers like Japan first, expose deeper cracks in the global financial system, and eventually put pressure on the U.S. dollar itself. In his view, striking Iran's energy infrastructure wouldn't end the crisis. It would simply make it much harder to stop. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Philip Pilkington believes the biggest mistake Washington could make is targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. Not because it would fail to inflict damage. But because it could lock the global economy into a crisis that lasts far longer than the war itself. According to Philip, oil markets have remained surprisingly calm because investors still assume escalation can be contained. He argues that assumption disappears the moment energy infrastructure becomes a battlefield. His point is that repairing pipelines, export terminals and refineries takes months, sometimes more than a year. Every strike extends the disruption. Even if the fighting ends quickly, the economic consequences don't. Philip also believes Washington has relied on the ability to repeatedly de-escalate whenever oil prices threatened to spike. If that option disappears, he argues, markets will be forced to confront risks they have largely ignored. His warning goes beyond oil. He believes a prolonged energy shock would hit major importers like Japan first, expose deeper cracks in the global financial system, and eventually put pressure on the U.S. dollar itself. In his view, striking Iran's energy infrastructure wouldn't end the crisis. It would simply make it much harder to stop. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

270,753 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸 The strategic petroleum reserve levels may never be reaching the Oval Office, and gas prices could spike before anyone intervenes. Economist Philip Pilkington believes Trump is watching crude futures, seeing green, and tuning out the rest. "He's being told, 'Sir, it's under control. Sir, everything is under control on the economy. Don't worry, Sir.'" If that's true, the pump price shock won't come with a warning. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 The strategic petroleum reserve levels may never be reaching the Oval Office, and gas prices could spike before anyone intervenes. Economist Philip Pilkington believes Trump is watching crude futures, seeing green, and tuning out the rest. "He's being told, 'Sir, it's under control. Sir, everything is under control on the economy. Don't worry, Sir.'" If that's true, the pump price shock won't come with a warning. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

91,565 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest lie in global energy markets may be starting to fall apart. For months, we've been told the oil market is under control, but economist Philip Pilkington says that's becoming impossible to sustain. His argument isn't simply that oil prices have been manipulated; it's that the entire strategy is beginning to collide with physical reality. Philip believes officials have been able to suppress futures prices through a combination of AI-driven trading, carefully crafted political messaging, and massive short positions entering the market at key moments. The result? A paper market that looks far calmer than the physical energy market underneath it. But futures contracts don't put diesel into trucks, and optimistic headlines don't refill storage tanks. According to Philip, that's where the strategy is starting to unravel. China is returning to global oil markets, refining margins remain unusually high, physical fuel markets are tightening, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to shrink. Every additional disruption puts more pressure on a system that's already running with far less room for error than it had a few months ago. Philip believes the Trump administration had a plan to carry the energy market safely through the midterms. It relied on temporary diplomacy with Iran, lower Chinese demand and continued releases from America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Then Trump tore up the MOU, China started buying more oil again, and the assumptions behind the entire strategy began to fall apart. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest lie in global energy markets may be starting to fall apart. For months, we've been told the oil market is under control, but economist Philip Pilkington says that's becoming impossible to sustain. His argument isn't simply that oil prices have been manipulated; it's that the entire strategy is beginning to collide with physical reality. Philip believes officials have been able to suppress futures prices through a combination of AI-driven trading, carefully crafted political messaging, and massive short positions entering the market at key moments. The result? A paper market that looks far calmer than the physical energy market underneath it. But futures contracts don't put diesel into trucks, and optimistic headlines don't refill storage tanks. According to Philip, that's where the strategy is starting to unravel. China is returning to global oil markets, refining margins remain unusually high, physical fuel markets are tightening, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to shrink. Every additional disruption puts more pressure on a system that's already running with far less room for error than it had a few months ago. Philip believes the Trump administration had a plan to carry the energy market safely through the midterms. It relied on temporary diplomacy with Iran, lower Chinese demand and continued releases from America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Then Trump tore up the MOU, China started buying more oil again, and the assumptions behind the entire strategy began to fall apart. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

387,423 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸 "That was a lie made up by the financial press and the Trump administration"... The oil glut never existed. Economist Philip Pilkington torches the story every major outlet ran for weeks. The world was told there was an oil glut, tankers full of crude everywhere, the strait basically open, nothing to worry about. His numbers say otherwise. At most a third of normal capacity was moving through Hormuz. Probably closer to 20%: "None of the narrative makes any sense here. Either there was an oil glut or there wasn't. Either the Strait of Hormuz was open or it wasn't." And that's his real accusation: the press ran war propaganda, and the market's price action exposed it. Oil spiked the moment the MOU wobbled, because traders knew what the headlines refused to print. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 "That was a lie made up by the financial press and the Trump administration"... The oil glut never existed. Economist Philip Pilkington torches the story every major outlet ran for weeks. The world was told there was an oil glut, tankers full of crude everywhere, the strait basically open, nothing to worry about. His numbers say otherwise. At most a third of normal capacity was moving through Hormuz. Probably closer to 20%: "None of the narrative makes any sense here. Either there was an oil glut or there wasn't. Either the Strait of Hormuz was open or it wasn't." And that's his real accusation: the press ran war propaganda, and the market's price action exposed it. Oil spiked the moment the MOU wobbled, because traders knew what the headlines refused to print. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

61,893 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Washington crashed oil prices with a peace story, bought the dip, then restarted the war... Economist Philip Pilkington lays out the sequence hiding in the inventory data. For weeks, the US dumped its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to hold prices down while the world was sold an oil glut and a functioning MOU. Then, the night before the strikes on Iran, the data shows a build-up, crude pulled back in at the very discount the dumping manufactured: "The response was planned." His name for the glut narrative that made it all possible: "war propaganda." And the bill arrived with the sunrise. China, which had been holding back demand to give the MOU a chance, lifted its refinery export ban the morning of the strikes. Beijing's grace period is over, Chinese demand is coming back, and the manufactured cheap oil era died overnight. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Washington crashed oil prices with a peace story, bought the dip, then restarted the war... Economist Philip Pilkington lays out the sequence hiding in the inventory data. For weeks, the US dumped its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to hold prices down while the world was sold an oil glut and a functioning MOU. Then, the night before the strikes on Iran, the data shows a build-up, crude pulled back in at the very discount the dumping manufactured: "The response was planned." His name for the glut narrative that made it all possible: "war propaganda." And the bill arrived with the sunrise. China, which had been holding back demand to give the MOU a chance, lifted its refinery export ban the morning of the strikes. Beijing's grace period is over, Chinese demand is coming back, and the manufactured cheap oil era died overnight. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

77,591 views • 2 months ago

Philip Pilkington explains how Donald Trump and the mainstream media are part of the oil market MANIPULATION to keep prices down: ‘A lot of oil market trading is now done by algorithms, not by people. So these are text recognition-based algorithms, not unlike the AI program that you use to look up research. And it’s a it’s a garbage in garbage out situation. If Trump posts enough keywords in his Truth Social, If Bloomberg News is able to recycle these so-called ‘high trust’ media sources, the trading algorithm will respond to those keywords.’ —Philip Pilkington on the latest episode of Going Underground Watch the full interview in the quoted post below 👇

Philip Pilkington explains how Donald Trump and the mainstream media are part of the oil market MANIPULATION to keep prices down: ‘A lot of oil market trading is now done by algorithms, not by people. So these are text recognition-based algorithms, not unlike the AI program that you use to look up research. And it’s a it’s a garbage in garbage out situation. If Trump posts enough keywords in his Truth Social, If Bloomberg News is able to recycle these so-called ‘high trust’ media sources, the trading algorithm will respond to those keywords.’ —Philip Pilkington on the latest episode of Going Underground Watch the full interview in the quoted post below 👇

Going Underground

17,512 views • 1 month ago

🇸🇦🇺🇸 The petrodollar system was built on a simple loop: Gulf states sell oil for dollars, then recycle part of those surpluses into U.S. assets. Philip Pilkington argues the Iran and Yemen wars are disrupting that loop at its source. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳.” The Gulf still holds an enormous stock of dollar assets. But if oil revenues remain impaired, Pilkington says those countries could eventually have to start liquidating some of those assets to support their economies and currency pegs. That would be a remarkable reversal. Instead of Gulf oil revenues creating demand for US assets, a prolonged energy crisis could turn the Gulf into a seller of them. Philip Pilkington

🇸🇦🇺🇸 The petrodollar system was built on a simple loop: Gulf states sell oil for dollars, then recycle part of those surpluses into U.S. assets. Philip Pilkington argues the Iran and Yemen wars are disrupting that loop at its source. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳.” The Gulf still holds an enormous stock of dollar assets. But if oil revenues remain impaired, Pilkington says those countries could eventually have to start liquidating some of those assets to support their economies and currency pegs. That would be a remarkable reversal. Instead of Gulf oil revenues creating demand for US assets, a prolonged energy crisis could turn the Gulf into a seller of them. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

83,067 views • 3 days ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Gas prices haven't dropped, but the numbers reaching Trump's desk say they have. Economist Philip Pilkington flags the dangerous gap between the headline oil prices and what Americans are actually paying: "The prices aren't coming down at the pump. But if the president, for example, is looking at WTI or looking at Brent or reading headlines in the New York Times or Bloomberg, it seems to be working." The tell is the cost of turning crude into actual gasoline and diesel, which keeps exploding while the headline price sits still. The White House thinks the problem is solved. The pump says otherwise. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Gas prices haven't dropped, but the numbers reaching Trump's desk say they have. Economist Philip Pilkington flags the dangerous gap between the headline oil prices and what Americans are actually paying: "The prices aren't coming down at the pump. But if the president, for example, is looking at WTI or looking at Brent or reading headlines in the New York Times or Bloomberg, it seems to be working." The tell is the cost of turning crude into actual gasoline and diesel, which keeps exploding while the headline price sits still. The White House thinks the problem is solved. The pump says otherwise. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

111,784 views • 2 months ago

The US Deputy Energy Secretary just said that 3 million barrels of oil a month is the "physical limit" they can refill The Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite this, the SPR was drained by 33/m barrels in September 2022 alone. At this rate, it would take over eight years to refill the SPR to the same level it was when Biden took office (-293 million barrels).

The US Deputy Energy Secretary just said that 3 million barrels of oil a month is the "physical limit" they can refill The Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite this, the SPR was drained by 33/m barrels in September 2022 alone. At this rate, it would take over eight years to refill the SPR to the same level it was when Biden took office (-293 million barrels).

Quiver Quantitative

17,395 views • 2 years ago