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Druck on Positioning Today, 🐐Talk: Macro Backdrop: • US stock valuations stretched • Fed won’t hike; likely to cut • US economy strong and getting stronger • Disruption coming - good for macro trading style Portfolio Today: Long: • Gold: geopolitical hedge • Copper: tight supply even as demand... show more

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Druckenmiller when asked what he would buy first if he was building brand new portfolio from scratch today: -some ai exposure but less than before - long Japan & Korea equities - bearish on US dollar - long copper - long gold as geopolitical trade (not monetary) - short bonds

Luke Martin

261,533 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Architect is now pre-onboarding individuals and institutions to trade US-listed compute futures on the American Innovation Exchange, launching imminently. Open an account on our website or app, trade the first-ever US GPU futures and options, join our liquidity programs: American Innovation Exchange futures are purpose-built for the US AI ecosystem: • Compute consumers (AI labs, model developers, hyperscalers) can hedge forward GPU pricing and reduce earnings volatility. • Compute producers and neocloud operators can hedge inventory, generate yield through covered strategies, and better finance expansion. • Asset managers, hedge funds, and proprietary trading firms gain efficient, regulated long/short exposure to compute as a distinct asset class. • The broader market benefits from transparent price discovery, a visible forward curve for deprecation, and supply/demand forecasting, and reduced basis risk through collaboration with index providers. Trading will be supported across desktop, mobile, and API, with order book and block trading capabilities. The launch of Architect’s compute futures marks a significant step in developing mature US financial markets for AI infrastructure and supporting the critical buildout of American compute capacity. We look forward to offering a seamless trading experience with low fee and favorable margin treatment to individuals and firms across AI and finance.

Architect is now pre-onboarding individuals and institutions to trade US-listed compute futures on the American Innovation Exchange, launching imminently. Open an account on our website or app, trade the first-ever US GPU futures and options, join our liquidity programs: American Innovation Exchange futures are purpose-built for the US AI ecosystem: • Compute consumers (AI labs, model developers, hyperscalers) can hedge forward GPU pricing and reduce earnings volatility. • Compute producers and neocloud operators can hedge inventory, generate yield through covered strategies, and better finance expansion. • Asset managers, hedge funds, and proprietary trading firms gain efficient, regulated long/short exposure to compute as a distinct asset class. • The broader market benefits from transparent price discovery, a visible forward curve for deprecation, and supply/demand forecasting, and reduced basis risk through collaboration with index providers. Trading will be supported across desktop, mobile, and API, with order book and block trading capabilities. The launch of Architect’s compute futures marks a significant step in developing mature US financial markets for AI infrastructure and supporting the critical buildout of American compute capacity. We look forward to offering a seamless trading experience with low fee and favorable margin treatment to individuals and firms across AI and finance.

Brett Harrison

10,063 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Is Your Portfolio Prepared for a Productivity Boom? I joined our friend Maria Bartiromo on FOX Business today to explain why a structural uptrend in U.S. productivity is becoming the dominant macro force for markets. The US economy is likely transitioning from a trend 2% productivity regime toward a trend 3% productivity regime—a shift that historically has coincided with materially stronger equity returns and significantly faster corporate profit growth. I emphasized that if this productivity dynamic proves durable, debates surrounding the backward-looking Powell Fed and near-term inflation concerns will matter far less than the earnings power being generated by increased efficiency. Investors who wish to retire on time and comfortably must have exposure to productivity growth in their portfolios—which is why 42 Macro 🇺🇸's flagship KISS Model Portfolio continues to be max long of stocks at 60%. Gold has remained a core allocation in our systematic KISS strategy as well after we replaced the 30% allocation to bonds with bullion in Oct-24.

Is Your Portfolio Prepared for a Productivity Boom? I joined our friend Maria Bartiromo on FOX Business today to explain why a structural uptrend in U.S. productivity is becoming the dominant macro force for markets. The US economy is likely transitioning from a trend 2% productivity regime toward a trend 3% productivity regime—a shift that historically has coincided with materially stronger equity returns and significantly faster corporate profit growth. I emphasized that if this productivity dynamic proves durable, debates surrounding the backward-looking Powell Fed and near-term inflation concerns will matter far less than the earnings power being generated by increased efficiency. Investors who wish to retire on time and comfortably must have exposure to productivity growth in their portfolios—which is why 42 Macro 🇺🇸's flagship KISS Model Portfolio continues to be max long of stocks at 60%. Gold has remained a core allocation in our systematic KISS strategy as well after we replaced the 30% allocation to bonds with bullion in Oct-24.

Darius Dale

15,527 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Announcing ComputeConnect, the financial industry’s first exchange-for-physical (EFP) network for compute, coming soon from Architect and Compute Desk. ComputeConnect links US exchange-traded compute futures to compute capacity delivery. Exchange-listed cash-settled compute futures are entering US markets to correct course on the current AI economy, reorienting debt to long-term growth: • Creating price discovery and transparency independent of any single capacity provider. • Establishing a forward curve for measuring deprecation and forecasting supply and demand. • Providing financial hedges for compute consumers and producers. • Enabling hedge funds, ETF companies, and traders to gain long and short financial exposure to compute. US cash-settled compute futures lack a physical delivery mechanism, and ComputeConnect fills this gap. Existing physically settled futures such as energy and agriculturals require their clearing house (DCO) to set a uniform standard for the grade and delivery method for the underlying commodity. Compute, by contrast, is highly fragmented, heterogeneous, and rapidly evolving, making it infeasible for any single DCO to define and enforce comparable standards. ComputeConnect establishes a network of compute capacity providers and links the network with Architect’s US futures products using exchange-for-physicals (EFPs), OTC contracts in which futures positions are exchanged for the assets the futures track. EFPs allow counterparties to negotiate the grade, timing, location, and other characteristics of the commodity along with a basis tied to the futures settlement price. ComputeConnect will • Build a network of capacity providers and capacity marketplaces. • Establish an open protocol for members of the network to receive delivery requests and advertise available GPUs. • Publish standard basis tables for different SKUs, memory configurations, and locations for GPUs. • Book the futures legs of the transactions to Architect’s DCM, the American Innovation Exchange. • Facilitate and guarantee delivery of capacity using Compute Desk’s ComputeClear platform. The advancement of US AI is constrained at every link in the supply chain: materials, power, chips, capital… The American Innovation Exchange, ComputeConnect, and our industry partners aim to secure compute’s dominance as an American asset class.

Announcing ComputeConnect, the financial industry’s first exchange-for-physical (EFP) network for compute, coming soon from Architect and Compute Desk. ComputeConnect links US exchange-traded compute futures to compute capacity delivery. Exchange-listed cash-settled compute futures are entering US markets to correct course on the current AI economy, reorienting debt to long-term growth: • Creating price discovery and transparency independent of any single capacity provider. • Establishing a forward curve for measuring deprecation and forecasting supply and demand. • Providing financial hedges for compute consumers and producers. • Enabling hedge funds, ETF companies, and traders to gain long and short financial exposure to compute. US cash-settled compute futures lack a physical delivery mechanism, and ComputeConnect fills this gap. Existing physically settled futures such as energy and agriculturals require their clearing house (DCO) to set a uniform standard for the grade and delivery method for the underlying commodity. Compute, by contrast, is highly fragmented, heterogeneous, and rapidly evolving, making it infeasible for any single DCO to define and enforce comparable standards. ComputeConnect establishes a network of compute capacity providers and links the network with Architect’s US futures products using exchange-for-physicals (EFPs), OTC contracts in which futures positions are exchanged for the assets the futures track. EFPs allow counterparties to negotiate the grade, timing, location, and other characteristics of the commodity along with a basis tied to the futures settlement price. ComputeConnect will • Build a network of capacity providers and capacity marketplaces. • Establish an open protocol for members of the network to receive delivery requests and advertise available GPUs. • Publish standard basis tables for different SKUs, memory configurations, and locations for GPUs. • Book the futures legs of the transactions to Architect’s DCM, the American Innovation Exchange. • Facilitate and guarantee delivery of capacity using Compute Desk’s ComputeClear platform. The advancement of US AI is constrained at every link in the supply chain: materials, power, chips, capital… The American Innovation Exchange, ComputeConnect, and our industry partners aim to secure compute’s dominance as an American asset class.

Brett Harrison

28,122 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🥷Meet Senpi — your OnchainGPT. Your AI edge in the market: autonomous trading, auto-buys, auto-sells, groups, sentiment analysis, portfolio tracking — and more — onchain. Senpi is a new brand and product from Airstack — live today Senpi -- more details 👇 Based on feedback from users and stakeholders, we’ve made our AI platform our full focus and launched it under a clean new brand: Senpi. Starting today, 100% of our team’s energy is on building Senpi. To the Moxie community: It’s been an honor to build the Moxie creator economy with you — on Farcaster, on Base, and across the onchain frontier. Three years ago, Airstack started as a crypto x AI data company. Now, we’re returning to our roots — focusing on where we can create the most long-term value: autonomous onchain AI. Senpi is live today — fully functional and evolving fast. You can start using it now — free to use, with only small transaction fees per trade. To $MOXIE holders: You were with us from the beginning, and we want you with us in this next chapter. When we launch the Senpi token, all $MOXIE holders will be eligible for a special airdrop — a heartfelt thank you for believing in us early. More details at Moxie It’s time to enter the dojo. 🥷

Jason Goldberg

14,650 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🚨 BREAKING: AI can now give you real financial strategic advice, not just opinions. Trump and the Middle East are on fire, the petrodollar is at risk, and all my savings are in USD. I’m worried So, I asked MiroThinker, it is an AI engineered for deep understanding. A question relevant to everyone right now: “I want to evaluate whether I should allocate my savings to gold or hold US dollars? Instead of a generic answer, it analyzed inflation, interest rates, USD strength, and global risks… then gave a clear allocation: → 60% USD (for stability + yield) → 40% Gold (as an inflation + crisis hedge) The logic is simple and actually makes sense: - USD protects your money in the short term. - Gold protects your wealth over time. This wasn’t a guess or a one-line answer. It was structured reasoning built like a macro analyst would approach the decision. Feels less like asking AI… and more like getting a breakdown from someone who actually understands how money works. If you have a serious question and need a reliable, structured answer: Try it → Download →

🚨 BREAKING: AI can now give you real financial strategic advice, not just opinions. Trump and the Middle East are on fire, the petrodollar is at risk, and all my savings are in USD. I’m worried So, I asked MiroThinker, it is an AI engineered for deep understanding. A question relevant to everyone right now: “I want to evaluate whether I should allocate my savings to gold or hold US dollars? Instead of a generic answer, it analyzed inflation, interest rates, USD strength, and global risks… then gave a clear allocation: → 60% USD (for stability + yield) → 40% Gold (as an inflation + crisis hedge) The logic is simple and actually makes sense: - USD protects your money in the short term. - Gold protects your wealth over time. This wasn’t a guess or a one-line answer. It was structured reasoning built like a macro analyst would approach the decision. Feels less like asking AI… and more like getting a breakdown from someone who actually understands how money works. If you have a serious question and need a reliable, structured answer: Try it → Download →

ZOYA ✪

13,691 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

On December 15, 2023, LME copper settled at $8,471 per tonne ($3.85 per pound). Today, May 25, 2026, the LME price is $13,660 per tonne, with U.S. copper trading (at a premium) at around $6.46 per pound. That’s a rise of over 60% in just two and a half years. The $15,000 per tonne threshold, needed to incentivise meaningful new supply, which I highlighted back in 2023, is now less than 10% away. Yet global copper supply is weaker today and costs are higher. Meanwhile, the demand for copper from the world’s two largest economies is unprecedented. In the US, potential Section 232 tariffs have put imported copper in the crosshairs, while in Asia we’re entering peak Chinese demand season. There are no semiconductors, no data centers, no electrification without copper… which is why the price of the world’s essential electrical conductor now trades in tandem with Nvidia and the AI boom. Add to the mix EVs, robotics, and defense demand, and copper’s future price direction is clear. In another two and a half years, $20,000 per tonne or $9+ per pound is realistic. Watch the LME warehouses closely and see where the metal actually moves… the world is finally waking up to the true value of copper.

On December 15, 2023, LME copper settled at $8,471 per tonne ($3.85 per pound). Today, May 25, 2026, the LME price is $13,660 per tonne, with U.S. copper trading (at a premium) at around $6.46 per pound. That’s a rise of over 60% in just two and a half years. The $15,000 per tonne threshold, needed to incentivise meaningful new supply, which I highlighted back in 2023, is now less than 10% away. Yet global copper supply is weaker today and costs are higher. Meanwhile, the demand for copper from the world’s two largest economies is unprecedented. In the US, potential Section 232 tariffs have put imported copper in the crosshairs, while in Asia we’re entering peak Chinese demand season. There are no semiconductors, no data centers, no electrification without copper… which is why the price of the world’s essential electrical conductor now trades in tandem with Nvidia and the AI boom. Add to the mix EVs, robotics, and defense demand, and copper’s future price direction is clear. In another two and a half years, $20,000 per tonne or $9+ per pound is realistic. Watch the LME warehouses closely and see where the metal actually moves… the world is finally waking up to the true value of copper.

Robert Friedland

56,456 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

"They are not going to be able to raise rates." Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) ran capital at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers as CIO. 30 years on Wall Street. Built one of the first volatility-arbitrage frameworks for systematic hedge funds. Managed billions through three crises, never had a thesis-driven blow-up year. "Interest payments on US debt are now bigger than what we spend on defense. Over a trillion dollars a year. This is what Bitcoin was made for." We cover: — Why the Fed is mathematically trapped and how the trillion-dollar interest math forces every policy decision from here — Why "bubble talk" is intellectually lazy: PE goes UP in bubbles, not down, and right now PE is contracting while earnings grow 27% — The AI-agents-eat-tokens thesis: why agentic AI doesn't care about dollars and what that means for compute-backed assets — Why belief is harder than fundamentals: fundamentals come and go, belief systems don't, and which belief is breaking in 2026 — The Bitcoin call no other macro guy on Wall Street will make publicly: new all-time highs before year-end — Why most hedge funds will underperform Bitcoin this cycle and the structural reason it has nothing to do with crypto — The single chart that made Jordi go from skeptic to allocator and why it hasn't reversed — What the 2020-2026 monetary regime actually was, named correctly for the first time Thanks to Jordi for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:42 - Bitcoin Lagging 03:16 - AI Investment 07:14 - Price vs Narrative 12:15 - Market Dynamics 21:28 - AI Trading 25:24 - AI Democratizes Wealth 36:26 - Crypto Transition 39:40 - Elliott Waves 44:08 - Banana Zone 49:37 - Fundamentals vs Technicals 55:14 - Ethereum Future

"They are not going to be able to raise rates." Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) ran capital at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers as CIO. 30 years on Wall Street. Built one of the first volatility-arbitrage frameworks for systematic hedge funds. Managed billions through three crises, never had a thesis-driven blow-up year. "Interest payments on US debt are now bigger than what we spend on defense. Over a trillion dollars a year. This is what Bitcoin was made for." We cover: — Why the Fed is mathematically trapped and how the trillion-dollar interest math forces every policy decision from here — Why "bubble talk" is intellectually lazy: PE goes UP in bubbles, not down, and right now PE is contracting while earnings grow 27% — The AI-agents-eat-tokens thesis: why agentic AI doesn't care about dollars and what that means for compute-backed assets — Why belief is harder than fundamentals: fundamentals come and go, belief systems don't, and which belief is breaking in 2026 — The Bitcoin call no other macro guy on Wall Street will make publicly: new all-time highs before year-end — Why most hedge funds will underperform Bitcoin this cycle and the structural reason it has nothing to do with crypto — The single chart that made Jordi go from skeptic to allocator and why it hasn't reversed — What the 2020-2026 monetary regime actually was, named correctly for the first time Thanks to Jordi for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:42 - Bitcoin Lagging 03:16 - AI Investment 07:14 - Price vs Narrative 12:15 - Market Dynamics 21:28 - AI Trading 25:24 - AI Democratizes Wealth 36:26 - Crypto Transition 39:40 - Elliott Waves 44:08 - Banana Zone 49:37 - Fundamentals vs Technicals 55:14 - Ethereum Future

Michaël van de Poppe

651,475 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

last night’s U.S. payrolls were a major downside surprise, and the market’s interpretation was quite clear: weaker jobs → less pressure on the Fed to hike → yields and dollar down → equities up. The particularly worrying part wasn’t just the -23K headline. May and June were revised down by a combined 103K, suggesting the slowdown has been building for several months. 📈 What happened to asset classes? 1. U.S. Equities — BIG POSITIVE Markets effectively interpreted the report as “bad news for the economy, good news for rates.” S&P 500: +0.6% Nasdaq: +1.3% Dow: +0.3% Russell 2000: +1.1% S&P 500 also closed at a fresh record high, while tech led the rally. 2. U.S. Bonds — Yields FALL The weak employment report reduced expectations of another Fed hike. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.64%. 3. Dollar — WEAK The dollar took a hit. DXY fell to around 99.4, a seven-week low according to WSJ. 4. Gold — Fundamentally POSITIVE The combination of: weaker U.S. employment lower yields weaker dollar reduced Fed tightening expectations is generally very supportive for gold. 🎯 The BIG takeaway for India I would frame this as: “US jobs market cracks — Fed hike hopes fade — Wall Street celebrates.” For Indian markets, the immediate transmission mechanism is: Weak NFP → US yields ↓ → Dollar ↓ → Fed tightening fears ↓ → EM assets/FPIs get some relief So Indian equities, especially high-beta/rate-sensitive segments, should initially take this positively. But there’s a catch: this is no longer just a rate story. If U.S. employment weakness continues and starts becoming a genuine growth/recession story, then the market eventually stops celebrating “bad news is good news.” Right now, however, the first reaction is clearly dovish rather than recessionary. #usjobs #payroll #usmarkets #nasdaq #gold Anuj Singhal अनुज सिंघल

last night’s U.S. payrolls were a major downside surprise, and the market’s interpretation was quite clear: weaker jobs → less pressure on the Fed to hike → yields and dollar down → equities up. The particularly worrying part wasn’t just the -23K headline. May and June were revised down by a combined 103K, suggesting the slowdown has been building for several months. 📈 What happened to asset classes? 1. U.S. Equities — BIG POSITIVE Markets effectively interpreted the report as “bad news for the economy, good news for rates.” S&P 500: +0.6% Nasdaq: +1.3% Dow: +0.3% Russell 2000: +1.1% S&P 500 also closed at a fresh record high, while tech led the rally. 2. U.S. Bonds — Yields FALL The weak employment report reduced expectations of another Fed hike. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.64%. 3. Dollar — WEAK The dollar took a hit. DXY fell to around 99.4, a seven-week low according to WSJ. 4. Gold — Fundamentally POSITIVE The combination of: weaker U.S. employment lower yields weaker dollar reduced Fed tightening expectations is generally very supportive for gold. 🎯 The BIG takeaway for India I would frame this as: “US jobs market cracks — Fed hike hopes fade — Wall Street celebrates.” For Indian markets, the immediate transmission mechanism is: Weak NFP → US yields ↓ → Dollar ↓ → Fed tightening fears ↓ → EM assets/FPIs get some relief So Indian equities, especially high-beta/rate-sensitive segments, should initially take this positively. But there’s a catch: this is no longer just a rate story. If U.S. employment weakness continues and starts becoming a genuine growth/recession story, then the market eventually stops celebrating “bad news is good news.” Right now, however, the first reaction is clearly dovish rather than recessionary. #usjobs #payroll #usmarkets #nasdaq #gold Anuj Singhal अनुज सिंघल

CNBC-AWAAZ

33,011 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce

🚨AI PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYTICS (v1)🚨 LIQUIDATION NATION!! Today I am releasing AI PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYTICS to the public GenAI is going to transform how we explain and communicate risk. Most platforms show you numbers. They are hard to explain, hard to interpret, and generally not useful. We are going to show you what those numbers actually mean for your portfolio. This tool is meant to be a "guide and not gospel". AI Analytics is the first of three major upgrades rolling out over the coming weeks. The second is Social. The third is so big I am not ready to talk about it yet. Remember, this is a beta release. There will be edge cases, so pls DM me bugs. We will get them sorted out. *stock universe is liquid North American equities + most major traded ETFs... if there is something you want added let me know* **double check your spelling and make sure all values are positive -> we handle everything on the back end -> see templates for how to upload The goal is to pull back the curtain on how hedge funds actually think about risk and give you tools that are both educational and useful. Watch the video. Tell me what you think.... and as always.... "manage risk"

🚨AI PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYTICS (v1)🚨 LIQUIDATION NATION!! Today I am releasing AI PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYTICS to the public GenAI is going to transform how we explain and communicate risk. Most platforms show you numbers. They are hard to explain, hard to interpret, and generally not useful. We are going to show you what those numbers actually mean for your portfolio. This tool is meant to be a "guide and not gospel". AI Analytics is the first of three major upgrades rolling out over the coming weeks. The second is Social. The third is so big I am not ready to talk about it yet. Remember, this is a beta release. There will be edge cases, so pls DM me bugs. We will get them sorted out. stock universe is liquid North American equities + most major traded ETFs... if there is something you want added let me know **double check your spelling and make sure all values are positive -> we handle everything on the back end -> see templates for how to upload The goal is to pull back the curtain on how hedge funds actually think about risk and give you tools that are both educational and useful. Watch the video. Tell me what you think.... and as always.... "manage risk"

Jared L Kubin

137,005 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

SK Hynix's Chey Tae-won on CNBC: * Says demand is ~doubling this year with customers asking for about double their prior orders * "Chipflation" increasing consumer prices, directly ties surging memory prices (the interviewer cites 40-50% increases) to Apple and others raising prices, and admits he has "no solution in the short term" * Capacity takes 4-5 years of lead time, so 2027 is when the shortage bites hardest before new fabs come online * References plan to double capacity within five years and says even that isn't enough for customers * Anticipates memory volume up ~5x within ten years, AI-agent usage up ~10x within five years * Nvidia is "the most important customer" but not overly reliant on one buyer, says Nvidia is foundational to the whole AI ecosystem * TSMC makes SK Hynix's base die, so he notes GPU capacity and HBM have to scale together or neither is useful * Long-term agreements (customer-driven), fab joint ventures, and "memory as a service" are how he says SK avoids repeating past over-investment busts (he references 1997 near-bankruptcy and a hard 2023) * Indiana fab + new US R&D center + a ~$10B "US AI company" to access US software/system technology * Says he's studying US and other sites (>1 month), hasn't talked directly with the US government despite July pressure from the Commerce Secretary, and customers want US-soil production * Says "fighting spirit" is edge vs Samsung and Micron, calls technology and resources roughly comparable, he credits SK Hynix's hunger (a decade under chapter 11-style hardship) and teamwork as the differentiator * Old memory demand was bounded by device count (one phone per person) but AI agents multiply memory need per person ("ten different AI agents"), which he argues stretches the cycle much longer and marks a structural change

SK Hynix's Chey Tae-won on CNBC: * Says demand is ~doubling this year with customers asking for about double their prior orders * "Chipflation" increasing consumer prices, directly ties surging memory prices (the interviewer cites 40-50% increases) to Apple and others raising prices, and admits he has "no solution in the short term" * Capacity takes 4-5 years of lead time, so 2027 is when the shortage bites hardest before new fabs come online * References plan to double capacity within five years and says even that isn't enough for customers * Anticipates memory volume up ~5x within ten years, AI-agent usage up ~10x within five years * Nvidia is "the most important customer" but not overly reliant on one buyer, says Nvidia is foundational to the whole AI ecosystem * TSMC makes SK Hynix's base die, so he notes GPU capacity and HBM have to scale together or neither is useful * Long-term agreements (customer-driven), fab joint ventures, and "memory as a service" are how he says SK avoids repeating past over-investment busts (he references 1997 near-bankruptcy and a hard 2023) * Indiana fab + new US R&D center + a ~$10B "US AI company" to access US software/system technology * Says he's studying US and other sites (>1 month), hasn't talked directly with the US government despite July pressure from the Commerce Secretary, and customers want US-soil production * Says "fighting spirit" is edge vs Samsung and Micron, calls technology and resources roughly comparable, he credits SK Hynix's hunger (a decade under chapter 11-style hardship) and teamwork as the differentiator * Old memory demand was bounded by device count (one phone per person) but AI agents multiply memory need per person ("ten different AI agents"), which he argues stretches the cycle much longer and marks a structural change

Fireside Alpha

130,535 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce

🚨EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – OPENAI’S 1ST INVESTOR: AI WILL SAVE US—OR DESTROY US Vinod Khosla was the first major investor in OpenAI. Now, he says AI will replace all human jobs, upend geopolitics, and redefine the meaning of life. Vinod breaks down the race for AI dominance—and the two futures ahead: one utopian, one dystopian. He warns China could weaponize “persuasive AI” to spread ideology, buy influence, and take over the world—not through kinetic war, but a war of the minds. He argues most of today’s jobs are “human servitude”—and that AI could finally free humanity from the burden of survival. And he believes robotics and AI will merge with our species, triggering the biggest transformation in human purpose since the dawn of civilization. This is a conversation you don’t want to miss. 02:42 – “People who don’t adopt AI will be obsoleted by those who do.” 04:29 – Productivity will explode. So will income inequality. 05:39 – Elections could soon be decided by AI’s impact on jobs. 09:21 – What if AI becomes a superintelligence with its own goals? 12:35 – “The biggest risk is AI in China’s hands.” 15:26 – Could giving AI full control make the world better? 20:16 – “The most fearsome threat is persuasive AI.” 22:12 – AI agents will protect us from other AIs. 23:33 – AI could replace 80% of jobs within 2–3 years of capability. 28:14 – We will no longer be driven by survival—but by passion. 29:58 – “Most jobs today are servitude.” 34:53 – Humans will no longer be the most intelligent species on Earth. 38:15 – Will AI merge with humans? 42:24 – “Survival will no longer drive us. That’s a first in history.” 44:39 – Could AI destroy us by simply pursuing its goals too well? 47:33 – Can AI be trained to care for us? 52:25 – Humanity never worked as one. But AI might force that reckoning. 56:52 – Should AI be allowed to make military decisions? 59:15 – “We need AI deterrence. Like nuclear deterrence.” 01:03:15 – Will humans fall in love with AI? It’s already happening. 01:07:21 – By 2040: 1 billion robots will do more labor than all humans. 01:13:01 – “AI is already better than most humans at most jobs.” 01:14:29 – “AI will free humanity to be what it wants to be.”

🚨EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – OPENAI’S 1ST INVESTOR: AI WILL SAVE US—OR DESTROY US Vinod Khosla was the first major investor in OpenAI. Now, he says AI will replace all human jobs, upend geopolitics, and redefine the meaning of life. Vinod breaks down the race for AI dominance—and the two futures ahead: one utopian, one dystopian. He warns China could weaponize “persuasive AI” to spread ideology, buy influence, and take over the world—not through kinetic war, but a war of the minds. He argues most of today’s jobs are “human servitude”—and that AI could finally free humanity from the burden of survival. And he believes robotics and AI will merge with our species, triggering the biggest transformation in human purpose since the dawn of civilization. This is a conversation you don’t want to miss. 02:42 – “People who don’t adopt AI will be obsoleted by those who do.” 04:29 – Productivity will explode. So will income inequality. 05:39 – Elections could soon be decided by AI’s impact on jobs. 09:21 – What if AI becomes a superintelligence with its own goals? 12:35 – “The biggest risk is AI in China’s hands.” 15:26 – Could giving AI full control make the world better? 20:16 – “The most fearsome threat is persuasive AI.” 22:12 – AI agents will protect us from other AIs. 23:33 – AI could replace 80% of jobs within 2–3 years of capability. 28:14 – We will no longer be driven by survival—but by passion. 29:58 – “Most jobs today are servitude.” 34:53 – Humans will no longer be the most intelligent species on Earth. 38:15 – Will AI merge with humans? 42:24 – “Survival will no longer drive us. That’s a first in history.” 44:39 – Could AI destroy us by simply pursuing its goals too well? 47:33 – Can AI be trained to care for us? 52:25 – Humanity never worked as one. But AI might force that reckoning. 56:52 – Should AI be allowed to make military decisions? 59:15 – “We need AI deterrence. Like nuclear deterrence.” 01:03:15 – Will humans fall in love with AI? It’s already happening. 01:07:21 – By 2040: 1 billion robots will do more labor than all humans. 01:13:01 – “AI is already better than most humans at most jobs.” 01:14:29 – “AI will free humanity to be what it wants to be.”

Mario Nawfal

2,901,662 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

New Journey Man episode with my dear friend Alex Gurevich—please enjoy! 00:00 – Welcome to The Journeyman 01:12 – Meet Alex Gurevich 02:08 – Alex’s Macro Framework 04:47 – Five Key Forces Driving Markets 07:00 – Rate Cuts & Central Bank Cycles 08:18 – Fiscal Dominance & Inflation Risks 09:37 – Demographics and Deflation 10:07 – Geopolitics and Trade Shifts 12:32 – The Rise of the Singularity 14:05 – Why Rates Remain Sticky 16:17 – Tariffs and the Bond Market 18:03 – Basel, Regulation & Forced Buying 20:26 – Stocks, Bonds & Mispriced Narratives 22:45 – Why Crises Always End in Liquidity 25:15 – 2022’s Puzzle: Real Rates & Liquidity 27:08 – Will the Fed Cut Soon? 28:37 – Favorite Macro Trades 30:25 – Currency Plays: Yen & Yuan 32:18 – Gold, Silver & Hard Assets 35:16 – Patience in Commodities 36:08 – Bitcoin, Crypto & Long-Term Views 37:00 – Copper & Industrial Demand 38:14 – Bearish on Equities… For Now 41:03 – Crises Create Opportunity 43:01 – The Buy-the-Dip Mindset 44:48 – The AI Singularity is Here 47:11 – Kurzweil Was Right 49:21 – End of the Exponential Age 51:14 – Energy as the True Constraint 55:15 – Can AI Solve Its Energy Crisis? 58:15 – Kardashev Scale & Solar Limits 01:02:37 – What Happens to the Economy? 01:04:34 – UBI and the End of Work 01:06:53 – Energy as the New Macro Constraint 01:07:29 – Why 2030 Could Be a Turning Point 01:10:12 – Can AI Run a Macro Fund? 01:14:29 – A Future Dominated by AGI 01:16:13 – This Changes Everything 01:18:44 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways

New Journey Man episode with my dear friend Alex Gurevich—please enjoy! 00:00 – Welcome to The Journeyman 01:12 – Meet Alex Gurevich 02:08 – Alex’s Macro Framework 04:47 – Five Key Forces Driving Markets 07:00 – Rate Cuts & Central Bank Cycles 08:18 – Fiscal Dominance & Inflation Risks 09:37 – Demographics and Deflation 10:07 – Geopolitics and Trade Shifts 12:32 – The Rise of the Singularity 14:05 – Why Rates Remain Sticky 16:17 – Tariffs and the Bond Market 18:03 – Basel, Regulation & Forced Buying 20:26 – Stocks, Bonds & Mispriced Narratives 22:45 – Why Crises Always End in Liquidity 25:15 – 2022’s Puzzle: Real Rates & Liquidity 27:08 – Will the Fed Cut Soon? 28:37 – Favorite Macro Trades 30:25 – Currency Plays: Yen & Yuan 32:18 – Gold, Silver & Hard Assets 35:16 – Patience in Commodities 36:08 – Bitcoin, Crypto & Long-Term Views 37:00 – Copper & Industrial Demand 38:14 – Bearish on Equities… For Now 41:03 – Crises Create Opportunity 43:01 – The Buy-the-Dip Mindset 44:48 – The AI Singularity is Here 47:11 – Kurzweil Was Right 49:21 – End of the Exponential Age 51:14 – Energy as the True Constraint 55:15 – Can AI Solve Its Energy Crisis? 58:15 – Kardashev Scale & Solar Limits 01:02:37 – What Happens to the Economy? 01:04:34 – UBI and the End of Work 01:06:53 – Energy as the New Macro Constraint 01:07:29 – Why 2030 Could Be a Turning Point 01:10:12 – Can AI Run a Macro Fund? 01:14:29 – A Future Dominated by AGI 01:16:13 – This Changes Everything 01:18:44 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways

Raoul Pal

136,948 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Today we announced our new Fairwater datacenter in Atlanta, connected with our first Fairwater site in Wisconsin and our broader Azure footprint to create the world’s first AI superfactory. Fairwater exemplifies our vision for a fungible fleet: infra that can serve any workload, anywhere, on fit-for-purpose accelerators and network paths, with maximum performance and efficiency. AI workloads have evolved beyond large-scale pre-training. Today, they encompass fine-tuning, reinforcement learning (RL), synthetic data generation, evaluation pipelines, and more. Fairwater is built to support this full lifecycle: Max density: Fairwater’s two-story design and liquid cooling system lets us place racks in three dimensions and pack them with GPUs as densely as possible, minimizing cable runs and improving latency and effective bandwidth. Fleet: Each Fairwater DC can integrate hundreds of thousands of the latest NVIDIA GPUs into a single coherent cluster. This provides flexible infra that can support the full spectrum of workloads, and ensure no GPU is left unnecessarily idle. And that’s on top of the more than 100,000 GB300s coming online this quarter alone for inference across the rest of our fleet. For us, it’s all about turning every gigawatt into the maximum number of useful tokens. Not every GW is created equal! Planet-scale: Every Fairwater DC will connect through our continent-spanning AI WAN to prior generations of AI supercomputers, forming a truly fungible pool of compute. This enables developers to scale beyond the capacity of a single site and dynamically land workloads on the right infra for their needs. Together, these innovations let us bring together different generations of silicon and AI systems across DCs and geos into a single elastic system that scales seamlessly across training and inference workloads And this elastic AI capacity is all available alongside all the other cloud services (compute, storage, databases, app services) that AI agents and workloads need. This is what we mean when we talk about building a fungible fleet – a single, unified platform that pushes the limits of performance per watt and per dollar. Read more:

Today we announced our new Fairwater datacenter in Atlanta, connected with our first Fairwater site in Wisconsin and our broader Azure footprint to create the world’s first AI superfactory. Fairwater exemplifies our vision for a fungible fleet: infra that can serve any workload, anywhere, on fit-for-purpose accelerators and network paths, with maximum performance and efficiency. AI workloads have evolved beyond large-scale pre-training. Today, they encompass fine-tuning, reinforcement learning (RL), synthetic data generation, evaluation pipelines, and more. Fairwater is built to support this full lifecycle: Max density: Fairwater’s two-story design and liquid cooling system lets us place racks in three dimensions and pack them with GPUs as densely as possible, minimizing cable runs and improving latency and effective bandwidth. Fleet: Each Fairwater DC can integrate hundreds of thousands of the latest NVIDIA GPUs into a single coherent cluster. This provides flexible infra that can support the full spectrum of workloads, and ensure no GPU is left unnecessarily idle. And that’s on top of the more than 100,000 GB300s coming online this quarter alone for inference across the rest of our fleet. For us, it’s all about turning every gigawatt into the maximum number of useful tokens. Not every GW is created equal! Planet-scale: Every Fairwater DC will connect through our continent-spanning AI WAN to prior generations of AI supercomputers, forming a truly fungible pool of compute. This enables developers to scale beyond the capacity of a single site and dynamically land workloads on the right infra for their needs. Together, these innovations let us bring together different generations of silicon and AI systems across DCs and geos into a single elastic system that scales seamlessly across training and inference workloads And this elastic AI capacity is all available alongside all the other cloud services (compute, storage, databases, app services) that AI agents and workloads need. This is what we mean when we talk about building a fungible fleet – a single, unified platform that pushes the limits of performance per watt and per dollar. Read more:

Satya Nadella

908,065 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

This viral video of a Chinese trader keeps getting reposted with wild, ever-changing sensationalist captions claiming he "accidentally exposed" an OpenClaw AI bot farm running 28K arbitrage trades on Polymarket for $868K in profit with zero losses. None of that is in the video. He's simply a trader explaining what he does for a living: all-market short-term trading across gold, large-cap US stocks, S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures, and similar instruments. He uses an order flow approach — analyzing deep market data, macro structure, and historical patterns to make probabilistic directional trades. When he points at the screen and says "this is a float 170... float 170 US dollars... then made a breakthrough," he's casually highlighting a small price movement or floating profit target on his chart (roughly $170 on that particular trade). It's not a secret bot strategy or anything spectacular. It’s just informal trader speak for a quick scalp or breakout he's showing live. He openly talks about the uncertainties in trading, mentions that retail investors often haven't encountered these methods yet, and plans to hold offline short-term trading courses in Hangzhou. His bigger message is optimistic and community-oriented: he criticizes the habit of Chinese traders hoarding knowledge and says he wants to share what he knows to build a stronger domestic trading culture with more full-time traders, more participants in stocks and commodity futures, and bigger overall markets in China. The Polymarket bot farm story and profit numbers come from a completely separate leaked WeChat screenshot that someone mismatched with this unrelated clip. It’s classic internet clickbait and the captions keep evolving because the actual video doesn't support the hype. It's just a guy talking shop and encouraging others to learn. I’ve captioned the video for your benefit.

This viral video of a Chinese trader keeps getting reposted with wild, ever-changing sensationalist captions claiming he "accidentally exposed" an OpenClaw AI bot farm running 28K arbitrage trades on Polymarket for $868K in profit with zero losses. None of that is in the video. He's simply a trader explaining what he does for a living: all-market short-term trading across gold, large-cap US stocks, S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures, and similar instruments. He uses an order flow approach — analyzing deep market data, macro structure, and historical patterns to make probabilistic directional trades. When he points at the screen and says "this is a float 170... float 170 US dollars... then made a breakthrough," he's casually highlighting a small price movement or floating profit target on his chart (roughly $170 on that particular trade). It's not a secret bot strategy or anything spectacular. It’s just informal trader speak for a quick scalp or breakout he's showing live. He openly talks about the uncertainties in trading, mentions that retail investors often haven't encountered these methods yet, and plans to hold offline short-term trading courses in Hangzhou. His bigger message is optimistic and community-oriented: he criticizes the habit of Chinese traders hoarding knowledge and says he wants to share what he knows to build a stronger domestic trading culture with more full-time traders, more participants in stocks and commodity futures, and bigger overall markets in China. The Polymarket bot farm story and profit numbers come from a completely separate leaked WeChat screenshot that someone mismatched with this unrelated clip. It’s classic internet clickbait and the captions keep evolving because the actual video doesn't support the hype. It's just a guy talking shop and encouraging others to learn. I’ve captioned the video for your benefit.

Ian Miles Cheong

24,165 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

I sat down with Mel Mattison to discuss why he believes bitcoin is quietly building a strong base for its next move higher. We also cover the key macro forces shaping markets, including Fed policy, the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, the sustainability of the AI boom, and rising geopolitical tensions. Enjoy! YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 – Intro 1:17 – How Mel views uncertainty in markets today 3:18 – Government shutdown & Supreme Court tariffs impact 6:55 – What could actually cause a bear market 9:20 – Why Mel is bullish on bitcoin’s base at $100K 13:02 - What would make Mel turn bearish on bitcoin 16:39 – Three negative market signals in stocks 21:10 - Has bitcoin’s 4-year cycle changed? 26:22 – White House Asset Management and US industrial policy 29:26 – Any concern around US – Venezuela tensions?

I sat down with Mel Mattison to discuss why he believes bitcoin is quietly building a strong base for its next move higher. We also cover the key macro forces shaping markets, including Fed policy, the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, the sustainability of the AI boom, and rising geopolitical tensions. Enjoy! YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 – Intro 1:17 – How Mel views uncertainty in markets today 3:18 – Government shutdown & Supreme Court tariffs impact 6:55 – What could actually cause a bear market 9:20 – Why Mel is bullish on bitcoin’s base at $100K 13:02 - What would make Mel turn bearish on bitcoin 16:39 – Three negative market signals in stocks 21:10 - Has bitcoin’s 4-year cycle changed? 26:22 – White House Asset Management and US industrial policy 29:26 – Any concern around US – Venezuela tensions?

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

37,937 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Michael Burry Sees The Financial System Running Out of Time The long end of the Treasury market is where several unresolved stresses are colliding. A 30 year yield above 5% reflects inflation uncertainty, heavy federal borrowing and weaker demand for duration. When the economy is deteriorating but long yields refuse to fall, the usual recessionary relief valve is failing. Slower growth is not producing cheaper capital because inflation volatility and debt supply are overpowering it. Burry does not mention 2007, but the comparison is useful. The 30 year yield stayed above 5% for 50 days that year, versus 27 days already in 2026. That does not mean another identical housing crisis. It shows how prolonged high rates corrode leveraged balance sheets. In 2007 the leverage sat mainly in housing and banks. Today it is spread across private equity, private credit, commercial property and data centers. AI Has Become A Debt Story The AI buildout increasingly relies on bonds, leases, project finance and private credit. Burry is not saying major technology companies are about to default. He is saying AI is creating another huge source of long duration debt just as the Treasury must finance persistent deficits. Technology companies and the government are competing for many of the same buyers. AI also consumes electricity, natural gas, copper and grid capacity. The market sees future productivity. Burry is asking whether AI first becomes an inflation and leverage problem. Inflation Volatility , Oil And The Basis Trade Bond investors care not only about current inflation but how predictable it will be over decades. When CPI components move violently, the headline can look contained while the system underneath becomes unstable. Investors then demand a larger term premium. Oil near $100 intensifies that problem. The shock spreads through transportation, agriculture, fertilizer and shipping. Businesses face higher costs while households lose purchasing power. The basis trade depends on hedge funds buying cash Treasuries, shorting futures and financing them through repo. The return is tiny, so it requires enormous leverage and stable funding. If funding costs or volatility rise, funds may unwind by selling cash bonds. Burry is asking who absorbs the next wave of Treasury and AI debt if a major buyer is retreating. PE and PC is private equity and private credit. Holding their breath means extending maturities, delaying exits and postponing writedowns. Private assets can hide deterioration longer, but accounting flexibility does not create cash flow. The sequence Burry appears to see • Oil and inflation volatility keep long yields elevated • Treasury and AI borrowing compete for capital • The basis trade loses capacity • Private markets can no longer delay recognition • Credit spreads widen and valuations reset • High multiple equities finally react • A credit event creates demand destruction • Only then do Treasuries rally and the Fed cut aggressively Burry can be bearish on long bonds now while still expecting them to rally later in a crisis. The lower rates needed to validate existing prices may not arrive until something breaks.

Michael Burry Sees The Financial System Running Out of Time The long end of the Treasury market is where several unresolved stresses are colliding. A 30 year yield above 5% reflects inflation uncertainty, heavy federal borrowing and weaker demand for duration. When the economy is deteriorating but long yields refuse to fall, the usual recessionary relief valve is failing. Slower growth is not producing cheaper capital because inflation volatility and debt supply are overpowering it. Burry does not mention 2007, but the comparison is useful. The 30 year yield stayed above 5% for 50 days that year, versus 27 days already in 2026. That does not mean another identical housing crisis. It shows how prolonged high rates corrode leveraged balance sheets. In 2007 the leverage sat mainly in housing and banks. Today it is spread across private equity, private credit, commercial property and data centers. AI Has Become A Debt Story The AI buildout increasingly relies on bonds, leases, project finance and private credit. Burry is not saying major technology companies are about to default. He is saying AI is creating another huge source of long duration debt just as the Treasury must finance persistent deficits. Technology companies and the government are competing for many of the same buyers. AI also consumes electricity, natural gas, copper and grid capacity. The market sees future productivity. Burry is asking whether AI first becomes an inflation and leverage problem. Inflation Volatility , Oil And The Basis Trade Bond investors care not only about current inflation but how predictable it will be over decades. When CPI components move violently, the headline can look contained while the system underneath becomes unstable. Investors then demand a larger term premium. Oil near $100 intensifies that problem. The shock spreads through transportation, agriculture, fertilizer and shipping. Businesses face higher costs while households lose purchasing power. The basis trade depends on hedge funds buying cash Treasuries, shorting futures and financing them through repo. The return is tiny, so it requires enormous leverage and stable funding. If funding costs or volatility rise, funds may unwind by selling cash bonds. Burry is asking who absorbs the next wave of Treasury and AI debt if a major buyer is retreating. PE and PC is private equity and private credit. Holding their breath means extending maturities, delaying exits and postponing writedowns. Private assets can hide deterioration longer, but accounting flexibility does not create cash flow. The sequence Burry appears to see • Oil and inflation volatility keep long yields elevated • Treasury and AI borrowing compete for capital • The basis trade loses capacity • Private markets can no longer delay recognition • Credit spreads widen and valuations reset • High multiple equities finally react • A credit event creates demand destruction • Only then do Treasuries rally and the Fed cut aggressively Burry can be bearish on long bonds now while still expecting them to rally later in a crisis. The lower rates needed to validate existing prices may not arrive until something breaks.

EndGame Macro

101,473 görüntüleme • 26 gün önce

LIQUIDITY: Dan Dreyfus on the Future of Critical Minerals -- Copper as the next AI bottleneck -- Investing in the commodity supercycle -- Dollar debasement -- Blue collar boom, rebuilding American infrastructure (0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals (0:33) America's "Capital Light Era" is over, rapid supply/demand shocks (5:40) Impact of China cutting off the US from critical minerals (8:18) Copper's Rise: The next 18 years need as much as the last 10,000 (12:00) Dollar Debasement: $140T in debt and why hard assets win (13:50) The Grid is Dying: Blackouts, bottlenecks, and the craft labor crisis (19:10) How to invest in the commodity supercycle Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (EY) - Liquidity, growth, and what’s next for organizations were front and center at the Summit. EY helps turn liquidity challenges into sustainable value. NYSE (NYSE 🏛) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. Plaud (Plaud) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.

LIQUIDITY: Dan Dreyfus on the Future of Critical Minerals -- Copper as the next AI bottleneck -- Investing in the commodity supercycle -- Dollar debasement -- Blue collar boom, rebuilding American infrastructure (0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals (0:33) America's "Capital Light Era" is over, rapid supply/demand shocks (5:40) Impact of China cutting off the US from critical minerals (8:18) Copper's Rise: The next 18 years need as much as the last 10,000 (12:00) Dollar Debasement: $140T in debt and why hard assets win (13:50) The Grid is Dying: Blackouts, bottlenecks, and the craft labor crisis (19:10) How to invest in the commodity supercycle Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (EY) - Liquidity, growth, and what’s next for organizations were front and center at the Summit. EY helps turn liquidity challenges into sustainable value. NYSE (NYSE 🏛) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. Plaud (Plaud) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.

The All-In Podcast

158,710 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

RUSSELL NAPIER'S AI REALITY CHECK: PRODUCTIVITY BOOM WON'T SOLVE DEBT OR DELIVER EASY STOCK GAINS - GOLD IS SET TO PERFORM WELL Russell Napier has studied markets and debt for decades. He is now directly challenging the idea that artificial intelligence will rescue economic growth and government balance sheets. At the same time he sees a very different kind of bear market ahead for American stocks. His message is simple but uncomfortable for anyone hoping for quick fixes or sharp rebounds. THE AI PRODUCTIVITY TRAP ➡️ Napier is skeptical that AI can be relied upon to deliver high growth and solve debt problems in a short period of time. ➡️ Technology does increase productivity yet history demonstrates it does not always lead to strong stock returns. ➡️ High levels of money creation at the same time often prevent those productivity gains from producing low inflation. ➡️ Governments will not wait passively for better days to arrive. ➡️ They will instead move quickly to impose financial repression on savers and investors. THE SIDEWAYS MARKET TRAP ➡️ Napier believes a painful crash on the scale of 2008 remains less likely than most expect. ➡️ The more probable path is a long and volatile sideways market for US stocks similar to the 1966 to 1982 era. ➡️ Corporate profits will rise during this time but valuations will compress steadily. ➡️ Investors will suffer poor overall returns despite the growth in earnings. ➡️ The market can simply go nowhere for years even as companies become more profitable. ➡️ Gold is looking positive due to the massive money printing THE BOTTOM LINE Napier believes the AI-driven productivity story will disappoint on growth and inflation control. This forces governments toward repression while stocks enter a grinding phase of rising earnings but falling multiples. The real bear market is the one that never crashes but still leaves investors with almost nothing to show after more than a decade. #RussellNapier #SidewaysMarket #AIProductivity #FinancialRepression #StockValuations #BearMarketWarning #DebtCycle

RUSSELL NAPIER'S AI REALITY CHECK: PRODUCTIVITY BOOM WON'T SOLVE DEBT OR DELIVER EASY STOCK GAINS - GOLD IS SET TO PERFORM WELL Russell Napier has studied markets and debt for decades. He is now directly challenging the idea that artificial intelligence will rescue economic growth and government balance sheets. At the same time he sees a very different kind of bear market ahead for American stocks. His message is simple but uncomfortable for anyone hoping for quick fixes or sharp rebounds. THE AI PRODUCTIVITY TRAP ➡️ Napier is skeptical that AI can be relied upon to deliver high growth and solve debt problems in a short period of time. ➡️ Technology does increase productivity yet history demonstrates it does not always lead to strong stock returns. ➡️ High levels of money creation at the same time often prevent those productivity gains from producing low inflation. ➡️ Governments will not wait passively for better days to arrive. ➡️ They will instead move quickly to impose financial repression on savers and investors. THE SIDEWAYS MARKET TRAP ➡️ Napier believes a painful crash on the scale of 2008 remains less likely than most expect. ➡️ The more probable path is a long and volatile sideways market for US stocks similar to the 1966 to 1982 era. ➡️ Corporate profits will rise during this time but valuations will compress steadily. ➡️ Investors will suffer poor overall returns despite the growth in earnings. ➡️ The market can simply go nowhere for years even as companies become more profitable. ➡️ Gold is looking positive due to the massive money printing THE BOTTOM LINE Napier believes the AI-driven productivity story will disappoint on growth and inflation control. This forces governments toward repression while stocks enter a grinding phase of rising earnings but falling multiples. The real bear market is the one that never crashes but still leaves investors with almost nothing to show after more than a decade. #RussellNapier #SidewaysMarket #AIProductivity #FinancialRepression #StockValuations #BearMarketWarning #DebtCycle

Mark

33,954 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

$THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.$

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.

George Noble

437,256 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce