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Druck on Positioning Today, 🐐Talk: Macro Backdrop: • US stock valuations stretched • Fed won’t hike; likely to cut • US economy strong and getting stronger • Disruption coming - good for macro trading style Portfolio Today: Long: • Gold: geopolitical hedge • Copper: tight supply even as demand...

51,890 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Announcing ComputeConnect, the financial industry’s first exchange-for-physical (EFP) network for compute, coming soon from Architect and Compute Desk. ComputeConnect links US exchange-traded compute futures to compute capacity delivery. Exchange-listed cash-settled compute futures are entering US markets to correct course on the current AI economy, reorienting debt to long-term growth: • Creating price discovery and transparency independent of any single capacity provider. • Establishing a forward curve for measuring deprecation and forecasting supply and demand. • Providing financial hedges for compute consumers and producers. • Enabling hedge funds, ETF companies, and traders to gain long and short financial exposure to compute. US cash-settled compute futures lack a physical delivery mechanism, and ComputeConnect fills this gap. Existing physically settled futures such as energy and agriculturals require their clearing house (DCO) to set a uniform standard for the grade and delivery method for the underlying commodity. Compute, by contrast, is highly fragmented, heterogeneous, and rapidly evolving, making it infeasible for any single DCO to define and enforce comparable standards. ComputeConnect establishes a network of compute capacity providers and links the network with Architect’s US futures products using exchange-for-physicals (EFPs), OTC contracts in which futures positions are exchanged for the assets the futures track. EFPs allow counterparties to negotiate the grade, timing, location, and other characteristics of the commodity along with a basis tied to the futures settlement price. ComputeConnect will • Build a network of capacity providers and capacity marketplaces. • Establish an open protocol for members of the network to receive delivery requests and advertise available GPUs. • Publish standard basis tables for different SKUs, memory configurations, and locations for GPUs. • Book the futures legs of the transactions to Architect’s DCM, the American Innovation Exchange. • Facilitate and guarantee delivery of capacity using Compute Desk’s ComputeClear platform. The advancement of US AI is constrained at every link in the supply chain: materials, power, chips, capital… The American Innovation Exchange, ComputeConnect, and our industry partners aim to secure compute’s dominance as an American asset class.

Brett Harrison

28,524 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

last night’s U.S. payrolls were a major downside surprise, and the market’s interpretation was quite clear: weaker jobs → less pressure on the Fed to hike → yields and dollar down → equities up. The particularly worrying part wasn’t just the -23K headline. May and June were revised down by a combined 103K, suggesting the slowdown has been building for several months. 📈 What happened to asset classes? 1. U.S. Equities — BIG POSITIVE Markets effectively interpreted the report as “bad news for the economy, good news for rates.” S&P 500: +0.6% Nasdaq: +1.3% Dow: +0.3% Russell 2000: +1.1% S&P 500 also closed at a fresh record high, while tech led the rally. 2. U.S. Bonds — Yields FALL The weak employment report reduced expectations of another Fed hike. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.64%. 3. Dollar — WEAK The dollar took a hit. DXY fell to around 99.4, a seven-week low according to WSJ. 4. Gold — Fundamentally POSITIVE The combination of: weaker U.S. employment lower yields weaker dollar reduced Fed tightening expectations is generally very supportive for gold. 🎯 The BIG takeaway for India I would frame this as: “US jobs market cracks — Fed hike hopes fade — Wall Street celebrates.” For Indian markets, the immediate transmission mechanism is: Weak NFP → US yields ↓ → Dollar ↓ → Fed tightening fears ↓ → EM assets/FPIs get some relief So Indian equities, especially high-beta/rate-sensitive segments, should initially take this positively. But there’s a catch: this is no longer just a rate story. If U.S. employment weakness continues and starts becoming a genuine growth/recession story, then the market eventually stops celebrating “bad news is good news.” Right now, however, the first reaction is clearly dovish rather than recessionary. #usjobs #payroll #usmarkets #nasdaq #gold Anuj Singhal अनुज सिंघल

CNBC-AWAAZ

33,110 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

"They are not going to be able to raise rates." Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) ran capital at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers as CIO. 30 years on Wall Street. Built one of the first volatility-arbitrage frameworks for systematic hedge funds. Managed billions through three crises, never had a thesis-driven blow-up year. "Interest payments on US debt are now bigger than what we spend on defense. Over a trillion dollars a year. This is what Bitcoin was made for." We cover: — Why the Fed is mathematically trapped and how the trillion-dollar interest math forces every policy decision from here — Why "bubble talk" is intellectually lazy: PE goes UP in bubbles, not down, and right now PE is contracting while earnings grow 27% — The AI-agents-eat-tokens thesis: why agentic AI doesn't care about dollars and what that means for compute-backed assets — Why belief is harder than fundamentals: fundamentals come and go, belief systems don't, and which belief is breaking in 2026 — The Bitcoin call no other macro guy on Wall Street will make publicly: new all-time highs before year-end — Why most hedge funds will underperform Bitcoin this cycle and the structural reason it has nothing to do with crypto — The single chart that made Jordi go from skeptic to allocator and why it hasn't reversed — What the 2020-2026 monetary regime actually was, named correctly for the first time Thanks to Jordi for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:42 - Bitcoin Lagging 03:16 - AI Investment 07:14 - Price vs Narrative 12:15 - Market Dynamics 21:28 - AI Trading 25:24 - AI Democratizes Wealth 36:26 - Crypto Transition 39:40 - Elliott Waves 44:08 - Banana Zone 49:37 - Fundamentals vs Technicals 55:14 - Ethereum Future

Michaël van de Poppe

651,475 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

SK Hynix's Chey Tae-won on CNBC: * Says demand is ~doubling this year with customers asking for about double their prior orders * "Chipflation" increasing consumer prices, directly ties surging memory prices (the interviewer cites 40-50% increases) to Apple and others raising prices, and admits he has "no solution in the short term" * Capacity takes 4-5 years of lead time, so 2027 is when the shortage bites hardest before new fabs come online * References plan to double capacity within five years and says even that isn't enough for customers * Anticipates memory volume up ~5x within ten years, AI-agent usage up ~10x within five years * Nvidia is "the most important customer" but not overly reliant on one buyer, says Nvidia is foundational to the whole AI ecosystem * TSMC makes SK Hynix's base die, so he notes GPU capacity and HBM have to scale together or neither is useful * Long-term agreements (customer-driven), fab joint ventures, and "memory as a service" are how he says SK avoids repeating past over-investment busts (he references 1997 near-bankruptcy and a hard 2023) * Indiana fab + new US R&D center + a ~$10B "US AI company" to access US software/system technology * Says he's studying US and other sites (>1 month), hasn't talked directly with the US government despite July pressure from the Commerce Secretary, and customers want US-soil production * Says "fighting spirit" is edge vs Samsung and Micron, calls technology and resources roughly comparable, he credits SK Hynix's hunger (a decade under chapter 11-style hardship) and teamwork as the differentiator * Old memory demand was bounded by device count (one phone per person) but AI agents multiply memory need per person ("ten different AI agents"), which he argues stretches the cycle much longer and marks a structural change

Fireside Alpha

161,614 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – OPENAI’S 1ST INVESTOR: AI WILL SAVE US—OR DESTROY US Vinod Khosla was the first major investor in OpenAI. Now, he says AI will replace all human jobs, upend geopolitics, and redefine the meaning of life. Vinod breaks down the race for AI dominance—and the two futures ahead: one utopian, one dystopian. He warns China could weaponize “persuasive AI” to spread ideology, buy influence, and take over the world—not through kinetic war, but a war of the minds. He argues most of today’s jobs are “human servitude”—and that AI could finally free humanity from the burden of survival. And he believes robotics and AI will merge with our species, triggering the biggest transformation in human purpose since the dawn of civilization. This is a conversation you don’t want to miss. 02:42 – “People who don’t adopt AI will be obsoleted by those who do.” 04:29 – Productivity will explode. So will income inequality. 05:39 – Elections could soon be decided by AI’s impact on jobs. 09:21 – What if AI becomes a superintelligence with its own goals? 12:35 – “The biggest risk is AI in China’s hands.” 15:26 – Could giving AI full control make the world better? 20:16 – “The most fearsome threat is persuasive AI.” 22:12 – AI agents will protect us from other AIs. 23:33 – AI could replace 80% of jobs within 2–3 years of capability. 28:14 – We will no longer be driven by survival—but by passion. 29:58 – “Most jobs today are servitude.” 34:53 – Humans will no longer be the most intelligent species on Earth. 38:15 – Will AI merge with humans? 42:24 – “Survival will no longer drive us. That’s a first in history.” 44:39 – Could AI destroy us by simply pursuing its goals too well? 47:33 – Can AI be trained to care for us? 52:25 – Humanity never worked as one. But AI might force that reckoning. 56:52 – Should AI be allowed to make military decisions? 59:15 – “We need AI deterrence. Like nuclear deterrence.” 01:03:15 – Will humans fall in love with AI? It’s already happening. 01:07:21 – By 2040: 1 billion robots will do more labor than all humans. 01:13:01 – “AI is already better than most humans at most jobs.” 01:14:29 – “AI will free humanity to be what it wants to be.”

Mario Nawfal

2,903,790 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Today we announced our new Fairwater datacenter in Atlanta, connected with our first Fairwater site in Wisconsin and our broader Azure footprint to create the world’s first AI superfactory. Fairwater exemplifies our vision for a fungible fleet: infra that can serve any workload, anywhere, on fit-for-purpose accelerators and network paths, with maximum performance and efficiency. AI workloads have evolved beyond large-scale pre-training. Today, they encompass fine-tuning, reinforcement learning (RL), synthetic data generation, evaluation pipelines, and more. Fairwater is built to support this full lifecycle: Max density: Fairwater’s two-story design and liquid cooling system lets us place racks in three dimensions and pack them with GPUs as densely as possible, minimizing cable runs and improving latency and effective bandwidth. Fleet: Each Fairwater DC can integrate hundreds of thousands of the latest NVIDIA GPUs into a single coherent cluster. This provides flexible infra that can support the full spectrum of workloads, and ensure no GPU is left unnecessarily idle. And that’s on top of the more than 100,000 GB300s coming online this quarter alone for inference across the rest of our fleet. For us, it’s all about turning every gigawatt into the maximum number of useful tokens. Not every GW is created equal! Planet-scale: Every Fairwater DC will connect through our continent-spanning AI WAN to prior generations of AI supercomputers, forming a truly fungible pool of compute. This enables developers to scale beyond the capacity of a single site and dynamically land workloads on the right infra for their needs. Together, these innovations let us bring together different generations of silicon and AI systems across DCs and geos into a single elastic system that scales seamlessly across training and inference workloads And this elastic AI capacity is all available alongside all the other cloud services (compute, storage, databases, app services) that AI agents and workloads need. This is what we mean when we talk about building a fungible fleet – a single, unified platform that pushes the limits of performance per watt and per dollar. Read more:

Satya Nadella

908,065 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

This viral video of a Chinese trader keeps getting reposted with wild, ever-changing sensationalist captions claiming he "accidentally exposed" an OpenClaw AI bot farm running 28K arbitrage trades on Polymarket for $868K in profit with zero losses. None of that is in the video. He's simply a trader explaining what he does for a living: all-market short-term trading across gold, large-cap US stocks, S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures, and similar instruments. He uses an order flow approach — analyzing deep market data, macro structure, and historical patterns to make probabilistic directional trades. When he points at the screen and says "this is a float 170... float 170 US dollars... then made a breakthrough," he's casually highlighting a small price movement or floating profit target on his chart (roughly $170 on that particular trade). It's not a secret bot strategy or anything spectacular. It’s just informal trader speak for a quick scalp or breakout he's showing live. He openly talks about the uncertainties in trading, mentions that retail investors often haven't encountered these methods yet, and plans to hold offline short-term trading courses in Hangzhou. His bigger message is optimistic and community-oriented: he criticizes the habit of Chinese traders hoarding knowledge and says he wants to share what he knows to build a stronger domestic trading culture with more full-time traders, more participants in stocks and commodity futures, and bigger overall markets in China. The Polymarket bot farm story and profit numbers come from a completely separate leaked WeChat screenshot that someone mismatched with this unrelated clip. It’s classic internet clickbait and the captions keep evolving because the actual video doesn't support the hype. It's just a guy talking shop and encouraging others to learn. I’ve captioned the video for your benefit.

Ian Miles Cheong

24,165 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE JUST STARTED Japan just dumped $71 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries, its biggest sell-off in decades. And that's not even the scary part. Japan is still sitting on ¥15.3 TRILLION in bond losses. They've hit the panic button. Here's what's really happening. Japan is selling Treasuries to defend the yen and prevent a bigger crash. At the exact same time, its gold holdings just hit an all-time high. That's not a coincidence, they're dumping dollar assets and keeping the gold. And it's not just Japan. China is doing the exact same thing, selling Treasuries while stacking gold to fresh records. Two of the world's largest economies, moving in the same direction: → Selling U.S. Treasuries → Buying gold → Cutting dollar dependence This isn't an isolated sale anymore. It's a structural shift in how major economies manage their reserves. And it feeds on itself: More Treasury selling → More pressure on bonds → higher yields → More intervention → More gold buying → Less dollar dependence. Now here's why it matters right now. When U.S. markets reopen after the long weekend on September 7, they'll be pricing all of this at once, record Treasury selling, rising yields, and a weakening dollar backdrop, right as the S&P sits at record highs on thin September liquidity. That's a dangerous mix. Rising yields are poison for stretched valuations. And a market this concentrated has nothing underneath to catch it if the bond market starts cracking. This is how the global system changes. Not overnight. Gradually, then suddenly. I've studied these cycles for over 12 years and called nearly every major top and bottom. I'm warning you now. If you want to survive the 2026-2027 cycle, follow and turn on notifications. A lot of people are going to wish they'd started paying attention sooner.

Shelpid.WI3M

123,733 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Michael Burry Sees The Financial System Running Out of Time The long end of the Treasury market is where several unresolved stresses are colliding. A 30 year yield above 5% reflects inflation uncertainty, heavy federal borrowing and weaker demand for duration. When the economy is deteriorating but long yields refuse to fall, the usual recessionary relief valve is failing. Slower growth is not producing cheaper capital because inflation volatility and debt supply are overpowering it. Burry does not mention 2007, but the comparison is useful. The 30 year yield stayed above 5% for 50 days that year, versus 27 days already in 2026. That does not mean another identical housing crisis. It shows how prolonged high rates corrode leveraged balance sheets. In 2007 the leverage sat mainly in housing and banks. Today it is spread across private equity, private credit, commercial property and data centers. AI Has Become A Debt Story The AI buildout increasingly relies on bonds, leases, project finance and private credit. Burry is not saying major technology companies are about to default. He is saying AI is creating another huge source of long duration debt just as the Treasury must finance persistent deficits. Technology companies and the government are competing for many of the same buyers. AI also consumes electricity, natural gas, copper and grid capacity. The market sees future productivity. Burry is asking whether AI first becomes an inflation and leverage problem. Inflation Volatility , Oil And The Basis Trade Bond investors care not only about current inflation but how predictable it will be over decades. When CPI components move violently, the headline can look contained while the system underneath becomes unstable. Investors then demand a larger term premium. Oil near $100 intensifies that problem. The shock spreads through transportation, agriculture, fertilizer and shipping. Businesses face higher costs while households lose purchasing power. The basis trade depends on hedge funds buying cash Treasuries, shorting futures and financing them through repo. The return is tiny, so it requires enormous leverage and stable funding. If funding costs or volatility rise, funds may unwind by selling cash bonds. Burry is asking who absorbs the next wave of Treasury and AI debt if a major buyer is retreating. PE and PC is private equity and private credit. Holding their breath means extending maturities, delaying exits and postponing writedowns. Private assets can hide deterioration longer, but accounting flexibility does not create cash flow. The sequence Burry appears to see • Oil and inflation volatility keep long yields elevated • Treasury and AI borrowing compete for capital • The basis trade loses capacity • Private markets can no longer delay recognition • Credit spreads widen and valuations reset • High multiple equities finally react • A credit event creates demand destruction • Only then do Treasuries rally and the Fed cut aggressively Burry can be bearish on long bonds now while still expecting them to rally later in a crisis. The lower rates needed to validate existing prices may not arrive until something breaks.

EndGame Macro

102,008 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce