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$DUOL CEO Luis Von Ahn addresses the concerns about Apple and Google translation displacing their business. Along with my Mom Claude Coding a Duolingo replica before 9am, this is the premier bear thesis. This bear thesis has been around for 10 years and has yet to materialize.

Nikolias Goninus

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72,280 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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"The thing that [AI] allows us to do is teach closer to a 1-1 human tutor. This is what we've always wanted to do with Duolingo." Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn shares how the company sees AI as a tailwind for their business as they report strong quarterly results $DUOL

"The thing that [AI] allows us to do is teach closer to a 1-1 human tutor. This is what we've always wanted to do with Duolingo." Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn shares how the company sees AI as a tailwind for their business as they report strong quarterly results $DUOL

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This is the most excited I've been to buy ETH in years. Lowest daily RSI for ETH in history, all while fundamentals of what's been built and who's building on Ethereum is stronger than ever, plus investors fleeing to quality in the bear. Shared my bull thesis on The Rollup TV with Andy and why the worse the sentiment in these bear market years is always the best buying opportunity.

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Zach Pandl says financial privacy has been in a decades-long bear market, and AI is the catalyst that ends it: "Our thesis is that's at an inflection point, driven above all by AI. That's the major technological change in our world right now, and it raises real questions about privacy and the surveillance tools coming in the next few years." "The Zcash thesis, the Zama thesis, we're just getting started, and there's potentially significant upside to some of these assets."

Zach Pandl says financial privacy has been in a decades-long bear market, and AI is the catalyst that ends it: "Our thesis is that's at an inflection point, driven above all by AI. That's the major technological change in our world right now, and it raises real questions about privacy and the surveillance tools coming in the next few years." "The Zcash thesis, the Zama thesis, we're just getting started, and there's potentially significant upside to some of these assets."

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Elon Musk talks about how SpaceX can provide low cost and high bandwidth internet to parts of the world that don't have it or where its very expensive to use. This is part of the $DUOL bull thesis. While many are focused on their Mom and Grandma Claude Coding a Duolingo replica in their pajamas before tea time, I'm focused on $ASTS and Starlink providing internet to parts of the world that don't have it. These companies effectively expand the TAM for Duolingo and other products and services by 30%. There are approximately 2.5-3 billion people that still do not have internet on Earth. Once they have access, their immediate instincts will shift to learning, especially learning the English language in a structured way. Learning english will give them access to better jobs and allow them to support their families via higher income from the english speaking job (can be applied to chinese and other languages as well).

Elon Musk talks about how SpaceX can provide low cost and high bandwidth internet to parts of the world that don't have it or where its very expensive to use. This is part of the $DUOL bull thesis. While many are focused on their Mom and Grandma Claude Coding a Duolingo replica in their pajamas before tea time, I'm focused on $ASTS and Starlink providing internet to parts of the world that don't have it. These companies effectively expand the TAM for Duolingo and other products and services by 30%. There are approximately 2.5-3 billion people that still do not have internet on Earth. Once they have access, their immediate instincts will shift to learning, especially learning the English language in a structured way. Learning english will give them access to better jobs and allow them to support their families via higher income from the english speaking job (can be applied to chinese and other languages as well).

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Bitcoin is about to repeat the 2022 bear market pattern. This chart has never been wrong before, and if the setup is still in play, $BTC will dump to $38K. Bookmark this and check back in two weeks.

Bitcoin is about to repeat the 2022 bear market pattern. This chart has never been wrong before, and if the setup is still in play, $BTC will dump to $38K. Bookmark this and check back in two weeks.

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The market is about to learn what Palantir CEO Alex Karp has been saying for years: “The large language model is essentially a commodity”. Swap Claude out with whatever model. It doesn’t matter. The value will come from the infrastructure (Palantir) that allows users to orchestrate the model. The effectiveness of Palantir’s Maven Smart System will remain unchanged; reinforcing the $PLTR thesis. Model agnostic.

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One of my biggest bear signals just fired on $QQQ 🚨 When this hits, $QQQ drops 10–15% or chops for ~90 days about 80% of the time. Monthly BX just closed dark red and I’m exiting my bullish thesis. Full breakdown in the video ⬇️

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Every Bear Case Against $DUOL, Debunked: Why This Is a Future $10T Company. DUOLINGO IS NOT A “FUN APP”. IT IS THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL EDUCATION. I’m long $DUOL. $2000 PT. Here’s why every major bear case collapses on contact 👇 Most investors misunderstand Duolingo because they judge the surface, not the system. Cartoons ≠ unserious. Fun ≠ ineffective. That confusion is the opportunity. → Bear Case 1: “You can’t actually learn on Duolingo” False. Learning is not about information. It’s about behavior change over time. Duolingo does not promise instant fluency. It engineers consistency. And consistency is what creates mastery. Peer-reviewed studies show learners reach real proficiency. Outcomes improve every year. The product is getting better, not worse. Judging Duolingo by its pre-AI version is a category error. → Bear Case 2: “AI will replace Duolingo” Backwards. AI solves intelligence. Duolingo solves habit. Generic LLMs give answers. Duolingo gives progression. Learning only compounds inside a system that understands motivation, pacing, friction, and dropout psychology. Duolingo has run 16,000+ experiments. Not features. Experiments. Each one targets a failure point: • Where users quit • Where motivation dies • Where boredom creeps in Those micro-fixes compound into massive retention. AI accelerates this system. It does not replace it. → Bear Case 3: “Big tech will build a Duolingo killer” Unlikely. Frontier AI companies are locked in a capital-intensive arms race to build intelligence itself. They cannot afford decade-long obsession with one vertical: learning behavior. The opportunity cost is enormous. Duolingo already did the hard part. → Bear Case 4: “Education is shrinking” Completely wrong. Education is expanding globally. Billions of new learners are coming online. Traditional systems cannot scale. Teachers cannot scale. Software can. For much of the world, learning is not a hobby. It is economic survival. Duolingo is not a toy. It is global infrastructure. → Bear Case 5: “Language learning is niche” Absurd. ~2 billion people are learning English globally. Duolingo serves ~130 million MAUs. That is early penetration. This is not saturation. This is the opening act. → Bear Case 6: “Duolingo has no moat” Incorrect. The moat is not code. It is accumulated experience. Billions of learning minutes. Billions of micro-decisions. Years of iteration on human motivation. You can copy software. You cannot compress lived learning history. Same reason Spotify won. Same reason Palantir won. Iteration beats imitation. → Bear Case 7: “New verticals like Chess don’t matter” Short-term thinking. Chess is already Duolingo’s fastest-growing course ever. Built largely with AI. Not monetized yet. This is the Amazon playbook: Dominate attention first. Monetize later. Math. Music. Chess. These are TAM expanders, not side projects. → The ambition is misunderstood Management has said verbatim: “We are about 1% of where we want to be.” They want to compete with Harvard. That sounds crazy until you realize: • Education is broken • Personalization beats institutions • Data beats tradition Duolingo owns the best learning dataset on Earth. → The real insight The market thinks Duolingo is a game. Management is building the backbone of global education. That gap between perception and reality is the opportunity. I’m not betting against AI. I’m betting on the company best positioned to harness it inside a system that already works. $DUOL is not being disrupted. It’s doing the disrupting. $2,000 PT. One of the best-run companies I’ve ever studied. Luis von Ahn Read 👇

Every Bear Case Against $DUOL, Debunked: Why This Is a Future $10T Company. DUOLINGO IS NOT A “FUN APP”. IT IS THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL EDUCATION. I’m long $DUOL. $2000 PT. Here’s why every major bear case collapses on contact 👇 Most investors misunderstand Duolingo because they judge the surface, not the system. Cartoons ≠ unserious. Fun ≠ ineffective. That confusion is the opportunity. → Bear Case 1: “You can’t actually learn on Duolingo” False. Learning is not about information. It’s about behavior change over time. Duolingo does not promise instant fluency. It engineers consistency. And consistency is what creates mastery. Peer-reviewed studies show learners reach real proficiency. Outcomes improve every year. The product is getting better, not worse. Judging Duolingo by its pre-AI version is a category error. → Bear Case 2: “AI will replace Duolingo” Backwards. AI solves intelligence. Duolingo solves habit. Generic LLMs give answers. Duolingo gives progression. Learning only compounds inside a system that understands motivation, pacing, friction, and dropout psychology. Duolingo has run 16,000+ experiments. Not features. Experiments. Each one targets a failure point: • Where users quit • Where motivation dies • Where boredom creeps in Those micro-fixes compound into massive retention. AI accelerates this system. It does not replace it. → Bear Case 3: “Big tech will build a Duolingo killer” Unlikely. Frontier AI companies are locked in a capital-intensive arms race to build intelligence itself. They cannot afford decade-long obsession with one vertical: learning behavior. The opportunity cost is enormous. Duolingo already did the hard part. → Bear Case 4: “Education is shrinking” Completely wrong. Education is expanding globally. Billions of new learners are coming online. Traditional systems cannot scale. Teachers cannot scale. Software can. For much of the world, learning is not a hobby. It is economic survival. Duolingo is not a toy. It is global infrastructure. → Bear Case 5: “Language learning is niche” Absurd. ~2 billion people are learning English globally. Duolingo serves ~130 million MAUs. That is early penetration. This is not saturation. This is the opening act. → Bear Case 6: “Duolingo has no moat” Incorrect. The moat is not code. It is accumulated experience. Billions of learning minutes. Billions of micro-decisions. Years of iteration on human motivation. You can copy software. You cannot compress lived learning history. Same reason Spotify won. Same reason Palantir won. Iteration beats imitation. → Bear Case 7: “New verticals like Chess don’t matter” Short-term thinking. Chess is already Duolingo’s fastest-growing course ever. Built largely with AI. Not monetized yet. This is the Amazon playbook: Dominate attention first. Monetize later. Math. Music. Chess. These are TAM expanders, not side projects. → The ambition is misunderstood Management has said verbatim: “We are about 1% of where we want to be.” They want to compete with Harvard. That sounds crazy until you realize: • Education is broken • Personalization beats institutions • Data beats tradition Duolingo owns the best learning dataset on Earth. → The real insight The market thinks Duolingo is a game. Management is building the backbone of global education. That gap between perception and reality is the opportunity. I’m not betting against AI. I’m betting on the company best positioned to harness it inside a system that already works. $DUOL is not being disrupted. It’s doing the disrupting. $2,000 PT. One of the best-run companies I’ve ever studied. Luis von Ahn Read 👇

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