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Dylan on why memory prices will double again: "Memory can only grow capacity low double digit percentages a year. 20-30% a year, even less for NAND, a little bit higher for DRAM, but whatever. Even though the demand signal was very strong at the end of 2025, the memory...

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Patrick OShaughnessy

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189,478 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Semi Analysis Dylan Patel: People are like, 'oh, the memory story is overplayed, everyone gets it.' No, no, no — you don't get it. DRAM will double or triple from here still, because that's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else. And the only way to steal capacity in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher pricing.
1:09

Semi Analysis Dylan Patel: People are like, 'oh, the memory story is overplayed, everyone gets it.' No, no, no — you don't get it. DRAM will double or triple from here still, because that's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else. And the only way to steal capacity in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher pricing.

Wall St Engine

208,608 次观看 • 2 个月前

Dylan Patel says the memory shortage is not a normal cycle "Memory capacity is only growing 20, 30% a year for the next three years. And yet, demand is doubling, is doubling...memory prices are going to keep soaring." "Our point there was memory isn't a shortage, and this is not a short-term shortage. It's a shortage that's going to last years." "Memory we've had the pricing go up like 4x and it's going to go up another 2x, 3x again, in addition to capacity growth. We talked about how KV cache was going to explode because of reasoning. And therefore memory was going to be the biggest winner." "We're still not at 85, 90% gross margins for memory, but we'll get there. And then at some point from there, it'll also halve back down to like 70s or maybe even lower."
0:52

Dylan Patel says the memory shortage is not a normal cycle "Memory capacity is only growing 20, 30% a year for the next three years. And yet, demand is doubling, is doubling...memory prices are going to keep soaring." "Our point there was memory isn't a shortage, and this is not a short-term shortage. It's a shortage that's going to last years." "Memory we've had the pricing go up like 4x and it's going to go up another 2x, 3x again, in addition to capacity growth. We talked about how KV cache was going to explode because of reasoning. And therefore memory was going to be the biggest winner." "We're still not at 85, 90% gross margins for memory, but we'll get there. And then at some point from there, it'll also halve back down to like 70s or maybe even lower."

Fireside Alpha

131,988 次观看 • 4 天前

If $MU confirms tomorrow that DRAM, NAND and HBM tightness can last into 2027 or 2028 then memory companies have more reason to keep spending on capacity and advanced manufacturing tools. That matters for $ASML because it sits at the most important equipment layer of the semiconductor supply chain where more advanced memory capacity means more demand for lithography systems.
0:59

If $MU confirms tomorrow that DRAM, NAND and HBM tightness can last into 2027 or 2028 then memory companies have more reason to keep spending on capacity and advanced manufacturing tools. That matters for $ASML because it sits at the most important equipment layer of the semiconductor supply chain where more advanced memory capacity means more demand for lithography systems.

Shay Boloor

429,338 次观看 • 20 天前

If $MU says NAND pricing is still strong, enterprise SSD demand is picking up and AI inference is creating more storage demand then $SNDK should benefit because SanDisk is one of the more direct ways to own that part of the cycle. Hyperscalers are still figuring out the right mix of DRAM, HBM, TLC NAND, QLC NAND and other storage architectures which can keep supply tighter for longer as memory companies are going to be hesitant to add too much capacity before demand becomes clearer. I'm going to be listening closely for Micron’s QLC commentary because QLC NAND for read-heavy inference workloads is the big driver and if Micron calls that out then it would show that the storage side of the AI memory story is still earlier than DRAM.
1:03

If $MU says NAND pricing is still strong, enterprise SSD demand is picking up and AI inference is creating more storage demand then $SNDK should benefit because SanDisk is one of the more direct ways to own that part of the cycle. Hyperscalers are still figuring out the right mix of DRAM, HBM, TLC NAND, QLC NAND and other storage architectures which can keep supply tighter for longer as memory companies are going to be hesitant to add too much capacity before demand becomes clearer. I'm going to be listening closely for Micron’s QLC commentary because QLC NAND for read-heavy inference workloads is the big driver and if Micron calls that out then it would show that the storage side of the AI memory story is still earlier than DRAM.

Shay Boloor

108,953 次观看 • 19 天前

Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. Long Micron!
0:42

Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. Long Micron!

Milk Road AI

259,810 次观看 • 14 天前

The AI boom just hit a wall nobody saw coming. And it's not software. It's not regulation. It's not even energy... It's memory chips. Right now, Dell is raising PC prices by 30%. Intel can't ship chips. Nvidia is slashing GPU production by 40%. And almost nobody understands why. Here's the "hidden" crisis the AI industry is trying to hide: AI data centers are hoarding memory. Not GPUs. Not processors. MEMORY. Every AI server needs massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to run those models everyone's hyping. One problem: There are only 3 companies in the world that can make it. Samsung. SK Hynix. Micron. That's it. And all 3 just diverted their entire production capacity away from normal RAM to feed AI data centers. The math that breaks everything: 1 gigabyte of HBM takes 4X the manufacturing capacity of regular DRAM. AI will consume 20% of global DRAM production in 2026. But the thing is, consumer demand for RAM didn't disappear. PCs still need memory. Phones still need memory. Cars still need memory. But there's no capacity left to make it. The price explosion: RAM prices are up 246% in the last 6 months. DDR5 contract prices jumped 100% month-over-month in some cases. Dell's CFO said he's "never witnessed costs escalating at this pace." SK Hynix and Micron? Sold out through all of 2026. Micron straight up EXITED the consumer memory market entirely to focus on AI customers. If you're not building an AI data center, you're not getting memory chips. AI data centers pay 3-5X margins compared to consumer products. So memory manufacturers are rationally choosing: Serve Microsoft and Google's AI buildout, or serve Dell's laptop business? Easy choice. Every wafer allocated to an Nvidia H100 GPU is a wafer DENIED to your next laptop. It's a zero-sum game. And consumers are losing. The dangerous cascade effect: Nvidia is cutting RTX 50-series GPU production by 30-40% because they can't get GDDR7 memory. Dell, Lenovo, HP are all raising PC prices 15-30% in early 2026. Xiaomi and other smartphone makers are cutting shipment targets. Even Intel's crash last week? Partially driven by memory shortages limiting chip production. This is a PERMANENT reallocation of the world's silicon capacity. Not a temporary supply hiccup. For decades, consumer electronics (phones, PCs, laptops) drove memory production. Now? AI data centers are the priority customer. And that priority shift is reshaping the entire tech economy. The timeline Is worse than you think: Industry analysts project shortages lasting through 2027, maybe 2028. Why? Because building new memory fabs takes 3-5 YEARS. Micron's new Idaho fab won't meaningfully impact supply until 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix are too busy ramping up HBM4 production to expand consumer DRAM. So we're stuck. AI companies need memory to scale. But producing that memory DESTROYS the supply chain for everything else. My question here: Everyone's betting on AI scaling infinitely. But what if the AI boom STALLS because there's not enough memory to support it? What if we're not in an "AI supercycle" but a "memory shortage that kills the AI buildout"? Intel crashed 17% because they can't manufacture enough chips. The root cause though? Memory shortages limiting what they can even produce. Nvidia is cutting GPU production by 40%. AMD is struggling to get GDDR6 for Radeon cards. This isn't just a consumer problem. It's an AI infrastructure problem. And if memory doesn't scale, AI doesn't scale. The AI industry sold you on infinite scaling. But they forgot to mention the part where there's only 3 companies making the memory chips that power everything. And all 3 just chose AI data centers over you. Even Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to meet demand. Not because of energy. Not because of regulation... But because the memory supply chain is BROKEN. And it won't be fixed until 2028.
0:58

The AI boom just hit a wall nobody saw coming. And it's not software. It's not regulation. It's not even energy... It's memory chips. Right now, Dell is raising PC prices by 30%. Intel can't ship chips. Nvidia is slashing GPU production by 40%. And almost nobody understands why. Here's the "hidden" crisis the AI industry is trying to hide: AI data centers are hoarding memory. Not GPUs. Not processors. MEMORY. Every AI server needs massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to run those models everyone's hyping. One problem: There are only 3 companies in the world that can make it. Samsung. SK Hynix. Micron. That's it. And all 3 just diverted their entire production capacity away from normal RAM to feed AI data centers. The math that breaks everything: 1 gigabyte of HBM takes 4X the manufacturing capacity of regular DRAM. AI will consume 20% of global DRAM production in 2026. But the thing is, consumer demand for RAM didn't disappear. PCs still need memory. Phones still need memory. Cars still need memory. But there's no capacity left to make it. The price explosion: RAM prices are up 246% in the last 6 months. DDR5 contract prices jumped 100% month-over-month in some cases. Dell's CFO said he's "never witnessed costs escalating at this pace." SK Hynix and Micron? Sold out through all of 2026. Micron straight up EXITED the consumer memory market entirely to focus on AI customers. If you're not building an AI data center, you're not getting memory chips. AI data centers pay 3-5X margins compared to consumer products. So memory manufacturers are rationally choosing: Serve Microsoft and Google's AI buildout, or serve Dell's laptop business? Easy choice. Every wafer allocated to an Nvidia H100 GPU is a wafer DENIED to your next laptop. It's a zero-sum game. And consumers are losing. The dangerous cascade effect: Nvidia is cutting RTX 50-series GPU production by 30-40% because they can't get GDDR7 memory. Dell, Lenovo, HP are all raising PC prices 15-30% in early 2026. Xiaomi and other smartphone makers are cutting shipment targets. Even Intel's crash last week? Partially driven by memory shortages limiting chip production. This is a PERMANENT reallocation of the world's silicon capacity. Not a temporary supply hiccup. For decades, consumer electronics (phones, PCs, laptops) drove memory production. Now? AI data centers are the priority customer. And that priority shift is reshaping the entire tech economy. The timeline Is worse than you think: Industry analysts project shortages lasting through 2027, maybe 2028. Why? Because building new memory fabs takes 3-5 YEARS. Micron's new Idaho fab won't meaningfully impact supply until 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix are too busy ramping up HBM4 production to expand consumer DRAM. So we're stuck. AI companies need memory to scale. But producing that memory DESTROYS the supply chain for everything else. My question here: Everyone's betting on AI scaling infinitely. But what if the AI boom STALLS because there's not enough memory to support it? What if we're not in an "AI supercycle" but a "memory shortage that kills the AI buildout"? Intel crashed 17% because they can't manufacture enough chips. The root cause though? Memory shortages limiting what they can even produce. Nvidia is cutting GPU production by 40%. AMD is struggling to get GDDR6 for Radeon cards. This isn't just a consumer problem. It's an AI infrastructure problem. And if memory doesn't scale, AI doesn't scale. The AI industry sold you on infinite scaling. But they forgot to mention the part where there's only 3 companies making the memory chips that power everything. And all 3 just chose AI data centers over you. Even Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to meet demand. Not because of energy. Not because of regulation... But because the memory supply chain is BROKEN. And it won't be fixed until 2028.

Ricardo

594,453 次观看 • 5 个月前

The AI bottleneck is not power. It is memory. Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan Lip-Bu Tan: "Everybody knows right now memory is the biggest shortage." Building fab capacity to fix it takes years. HBM and DRAM tightness is the primary speed limit on AI cluster deployment right now. Power gets the headlines, memory gates the build. Corroborated: Marvell CEO Matt Murphy said the same at COMPUTEX a week earlier. Watch HBM and DRAM pricing as the binding gauge: Source: No Priors -
0:32

The AI bottleneck is not power. It is memory. Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan Lip-Bu Tan: "Everybody knows right now memory is the biggest shortage." Building fab capacity to fix it takes years. HBM and DRAM tightness is the primary speed limit on AI cluster deployment right now. Power gets the headlines, memory gates the build. Corroborated: Marvell CEO Matt Murphy said the same at COMPUTEX a week earlier. Watch HBM and DRAM pricing as the binding gauge: Source: No Priors -

Podcast Alpha

17,327 次观看 • 23 天前

🚨 WHAT IF THE MEMORY SHORTAGE WAS MANUFACTURED? Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are being sued for allegedly engineering the DRAM shortage on purpose. The lawsuit claims they used the AI boom as cover to quietly cut normal memory supply. DRAM prices are up 500 to 700%. The damage is now showing up in iPhone and Mac prices. The makers say it's innocent: AI buyers showed up with huge money for HBM. But here's the bigger question. Memory stocks are priced for endless AI demand. If a court rules the scarcity was manufactured, how much of that demand was ever real?
0:37

🚨 WHAT IF THE MEMORY SHORTAGE WAS MANUFACTURED? Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are being sued for allegedly engineering the DRAM shortage on purpose. The lawsuit claims they used the AI boom as cover to quietly cut normal memory supply. DRAM prices are up 500 to 700%. The damage is now showing up in iPhone and Mac prices. The makers say it's innocent: AI buyers showed up with huge money for HBM. But here's the bigger question. Memory stocks are priced for endless AI demand. If a court rules the scarcity was manufactured, how much of that demand was ever real?

CryptoGoos

32,262 次观看 • 14 天前

$MU CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron can only supply ~60% of what key customers are requesting as AI demand creates an unprecedented memory shortage. Every wafer shifted into HBM can cost ~3x the standard DRAM output and demand keeps rising because inference, agents, robotics and autonomous systems are all memory-bandwidth-bound. Memory fab capacity takes three to five years to build so the shortage Mehrotra is describing today could define the supply curve for the rest of the decade.
0:28

$MU CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron can only supply ~60% of what key customers are requesting as AI demand creates an unprecedented memory shortage. Every wafer shifted into HBM can cost ~3x the standard DRAM output and demand keeps rising because inference, agents, robotics and autonomous systems are all memory-bandwidth-bound. Memory fab capacity takes three to five years to build so the shortage Mehrotra is describing today could define the supply curve for the rest of the decade.

Shay Boloor

124,980 次观看 • 1 个月前

Jensen Huang says $NVDA has “the largest supply chain in the world” but AI demand is still outstripping global capacity. The bottleneck is memory, compute, power and the physical buildout required to turn AI demand into usable capacity.
0:27

Jensen Huang says $NVDA has “the largest supply chain in the world” but AI demand is still outstripping global capacity. The bottleneck is memory, compute, power and the physical buildout required to turn AI demand into usable capacity.

Shay Boloor

89,861 次观看 • 1 个月前

AI companies just BROKE the global supply chain for every piece of technology you own. And the fallout is way worse than anyone predicted... Sony is delaying the next PlayStation to 2028 or 2029. Nintendo is hiking the Switch 2 price mid-cycle. Apple warned investors that iPhone margins are getting crushed. Cisco just posted its worst share loss in 4 years. Oppo is cutting phone shipments by 20%. Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS are all raising laptop prices 15-20%. Samsung is now reviewing memory contracts QUARTERLY instead of annually because prices change too fast to plan. And Elon Musk just told investors Tesla has to build its own chip factory from scratch because no supplier on the planet can keep up. His exact words: "We've got two choices: hit the chip wall or make a fab." All of this happened in the last 3 weeks. Same cause. Every single time. AI data centers are buying every memory chip on Earth. And there's nothing left for everyone else. Here's how we got here: 3 years ago, ChatGPT launched and the AI arms race began. Since then, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the only 3 companies that make memory chips, quietly made a decision that's now reshaping the ENTIRE global economy. They stopped prioritizing consumer memory. Every factory. Every production line. Every wafer. All redirected toward one customer: AI data centers Why? Money. AI memory chips sell for 3-5X the margin of regular RAM. When Google calls offering to buy your entire output at premium pricing, you don't say no. So the 3 companies that control 90% of the world's memory supply chose their highest-paying customers and left everyone else fighting over scraps. The numbers from this week are insane: OpenAI's Stargate project ALONE will consume 40% of the entire world's DRAM output. HBM demand is surging 70% year over year in 2026. HBM now takes 23% of total DRAM wafer production, up from 19% last year. Meanwhile, there's a 4% gap between global DRAM supply and demand. And that doesn't even account for depleted inventories across multiple industries. DRAM prices have surged over 170% since early 2025. DDR5 contract prices are still jumping double digits month over month. And the memory makers? They're printing money. Micron's revenue is expected to more than DOUBLE this fiscal year. SK Hynix sales doubled in 2024 and are on pace to double AGAIN. Samsung just reported quarterly profit nearly tripling. 3 companies. $650 billion in AI spending chasing their products. And they get to name their price. But the collateral damage is everywhere: Every industry that uses memory, which is every industry, is getting squeezed. Smartphone manufacturers are getting destroyed. For a mid-range phone, memory now represents up to 30% of the total build cost. Triple what it was in early 2025. Chinese phone makers like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Transsion are cutting shipment forecasts and raising prices because they literally cannot afford the memory to build their phones. Lenovo's CFO called the cost surge "unprecedented" and admitted they stockpiled 50% more inventory than normal just to survive the next few months. The PC market could shrink by up to 9% this year according to IDC. Not because people don't want computers. But because they can't afford the memory that goes inside them. And the gaming industry? Sony is seriously considering pushing the next PlayStation to 2028 or 2029. Their carefully planned console cycle is getting blown up because they can't secure memory at prices that make a new console viable. Nintendo is looking at raising the Switch 2 price. In the middle of a launch cycle. Something console makers almost never do. Nvidia is cutting RTX GPU production because they can't get enough GDDR7 memory. Even the car industry is getting hit... Analysts are warning about a repeat of the pandemic-era chip shortage that shut down auto factories worldwide. All because AI companies decided their chatbots needed the memory more than your car does. And this doesn't get better for YEARS. Building a new memory fab takes 3-5 years minimum. Micron's new factory in Idaho won't meaningfully increase supply until 2027 at the earliest. By then, AI demand will have grown even more. Memory makers are already selling their 2027 AND 2028 capacity to AI customers today. There is no supply relief coming. That's why Elon is planning to build Tesla's own "TeraFab," a massive semiconductor plant that makes logic chips, memory, AND packaging all under one roof. He said existing suppliers including TSMC, Samsung, and Micron simply cannot supply Tesla at the levels the company needs. Think about that. One of the richest men in the world, running one of the largest companies on Earth, can't buy enough memory chips. So he's building his own factory. If ELON can't get supply, what chance does everyone else have? The AI revolution has a tax. And YOU'RE paying it. Every dollar Big Tech spends on AI infrastructure drives up the cost of the memory inside your phone, your laptop, your car, your TV, and your gaming console. $650 billion in AI spending this year. 3 companies controlling 90% of the memory supply. And every wafer they allocate to an Nvidia GPU is a wafer denied to the device in your pocket. The AI boom isn't free. You're subsidizing it every time you buy a piece of technology. And the bill just went up like crazy.
1:31

AI companies just BROKE the global supply chain for every piece of technology you own. And the fallout is way worse than anyone predicted... Sony is delaying the next PlayStation to 2028 or 2029. Nintendo is hiking the Switch 2 price mid-cycle. Apple warned investors that iPhone margins are getting crushed. Cisco just posted its worst share loss in 4 years. Oppo is cutting phone shipments by 20%. Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS are all raising laptop prices 15-20%. Samsung is now reviewing memory contracts QUARTERLY instead of annually because prices change too fast to plan. And Elon Musk just told investors Tesla has to build its own chip factory from scratch because no supplier on the planet can keep up. His exact words: "We've got two choices: hit the chip wall or make a fab." All of this happened in the last 3 weeks. Same cause. Every single time. AI data centers are buying every memory chip on Earth. And there's nothing left for everyone else. Here's how we got here: 3 years ago, ChatGPT launched and the AI arms race began. Since then, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the only 3 companies that make memory chips, quietly made a decision that's now reshaping the ENTIRE global economy. They stopped prioritizing consumer memory. Every factory. Every production line. Every wafer. All redirected toward one customer: AI data centers Why? Money. AI memory chips sell for 3-5X the margin of regular RAM. When Google calls offering to buy your entire output at premium pricing, you don't say no. So the 3 companies that control 90% of the world's memory supply chose their highest-paying customers and left everyone else fighting over scraps. The numbers from this week are insane: OpenAI's Stargate project ALONE will consume 40% of the entire world's DRAM output. HBM demand is surging 70% year over year in 2026. HBM now takes 23% of total DRAM wafer production, up from 19% last year. Meanwhile, there's a 4% gap between global DRAM supply and demand. And that doesn't even account for depleted inventories across multiple industries. DRAM prices have surged over 170% since early 2025. DDR5 contract prices are still jumping double digits month over month. And the memory makers? They're printing money. Micron's revenue is expected to more than DOUBLE this fiscal year. SK Hynix sales doubled in 2024 and are on pace to double AGAIN. Samsung just reported quarterly profit nearly tripling. 3 companies. $650 billion in AI spending chasing their products. And they get to name their price. But the collateral damage is everywhere: Every industry that uses memory, which is every industry, is getting squeezed. Smartphone manufacturers are getting destroyed. For a mid-range phone, memory now represents up to 30% of the total build cost. Triple what it was in early 2025. Chinese phone makers like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Transsion are cutting shipment forecasts and raising prices because they literally cannot afford the memory to build their phones. Lenovo's CFO called the cost surge "unprecedented" and admitted they stockpiled 50% more inventory than normal just to survive the next few months. The PC market could shrink by up to 9% this year according to IDC. Not because people don't want computers. But because they can't afford the memory that goes inside them. And the gaming industry? Sony is seriously considering pushing the next PlayStation to 2028 or 2029. Their carefully planned console cycle is getting blown up because they can't secure memory at prices that make a new console viable. Nintendo is looking at raising the Switch 2 price. In the middle of a launch cycle. Something console makers almost never do. Nvidia is cutting RTX GPU production because they can't get enough GDDR7 memory. Even the car industry is getting hit... Analysts are warning about a repeat of the pandemic-era chip shortage that shut down auto factories worldwide. All because AI companies decided their chatbots needed the memory more than your car does. And this doesn't get better for YEARS. Building a new memory fab takes 3-5 years minimum. Micron's new factory in Idaho won't meaningfully increase supply until 2027 at the earliest. By then, AI demand will have grown even more. Memory makers are already selling their 2027 AND 2028 capacity to AI customers today. There is no supply relief coming. That's why Elon is planning to build Tesla's own "TeraFab," a massive semiconductor plant that makes logic chips, memory, AND packaging all under one roof. He said existing suppliers including TSMC, Samsung, and Micron simply cannot supply Tesla at the levels the company needs. Think about that. One of the richest men in the world, running one of the largest companies on Earth, can't buy enough memory chips. So he's building his own factory. If ELON can't get supply, what chance does everyone else have? The AI revolution has a tax. And YOU'RE paying it. Every dollar Big Tech spends on AI infrastructure drives up the cost of the memory inside your phone, your laptop, your car, your TV, and your gaming console. $650 billion in AI spending this year. 3 companies controlling 90% of the memory supply. And every wafer they allocate to an Nvidia GPU is a wafer denied to the device in your pocket. The AI boom isn't free. You're subsidizing it every time you buy a piece of technology. And the bill just went up like crazy.

Ricardo

567,053 次观看 • 4 个月前

Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this). For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down. Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle. What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend. DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away. HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers. Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances. Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027. Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year. Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%. There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides. Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history. Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided. For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS. At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher. Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028. The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it. This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it. Follow me Melvin for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.
4:08

Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this). For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down. Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle. What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend. DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away. HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers. Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances. Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027. Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year. Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%. There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides. Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history. Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided. For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS. At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher. Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028. The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it. This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it. Follow me Melvin for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.

Melvin

92,821 次观看 • 17 天前

DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis says the AI bottleneck is already moving from model ideas to physical supply chains. "How much of the restriction at this point is physical? I am talking memory shortage, GPU shortage, and electricity." Demis: "That is constraining a lot of the deployment for sure. We see so much more demand for our models - Gemini and the other models that we have - than we can possibly serve." Then the less obvious part: "It does constrain a little bit the research, because you need a lot of chips to be able to experiment on new ideas at big enough scale that you can actually see if they are going to work." And on memory: "The whole supply chain is kind of strained... It still in the end actually comes down to a few suppliers of a few of the key components. Anywhere where there is some kind of constraint on the capacity, there is a sort of choke point." Important framing: The next AI race is not just who has the best model architecture. It is who can secure memory, chips, power, suppliers, and enough experimental capacity to find the next breakthrough before everyone else.
1:09

DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis says the AI bottleneck is already moving from model ideas to physical supply chains. "How much of the restriction at this point is physical? I am talking memory shortage, GPU shortage, and electricity." Demis: "That is constraining a lot of the deployment for sure. We see so much more demand for our models - Gemini and the other models that we have - than we can possibly serve." Then the less obvious part: "It does constrain a little bit the research, because you need a lot of chips to be able to experiment on new ideas at big enough scale that you can actually see if they are going to work." And on memory: "The whole supply chain is kind of strained... It still in the end actually comes down to a few suppliers of a few of the key components. Anywhere where there is some kind of constraint on the capacity, there is a sort of choke point." Important framing: The next AI race is not just who has the best model architecture. It is who can secure memory, chips, power, suppliers, and enough experimental capacity to find the next breakthrough before everyone else.

Karl Mehta

25,716 次观看 • 16 天前

Brad took so much heat here for saying memory may not be cyclical this time. I would normally be very hesitant to claim something that has historically been cyclical is no longer cyclical, but I think it may be correct this time. As the required memory capacity and bandwidth grow, HBM turns something like a process business rather than a product business. Vertically connecting DRAM stacks into a HBM has gone through two generationa of bonding tech, thermal compression bonding and mass reflow molded underfill, and now the next-gen hybrid bonding is coming. Each generation required more capex and expertise, and this will continue through generations. Meanwhile bandwidth and capacity demand from AI accelerators will keep growing vertically. This will create an environment where only the incumbents with strong cash flows will be able to make necessary capex spending and customers won’t risk diversifying away, keeping the process expertise trapped with the incumbents, just like it happened with $TSM in foundry business. So, memory names can really be ridiculously cheap.
1:14

Brad took so much heat here for saying memory may not be cyclical this time. I would normally be very hesitant to claim something that has historically been cyclical is no longer cyclical, but I think it may be correct this time. As the required memory capacity and bandwidth grow, HBM turns something like a process business rather than a product business. Vertically connecting DRAM stacks into a HBM has gone through two generationa of bonding tech, thermal compression bonding and mass reflow molded underfill, and now the next-gen hybrid bonding is coming. Each generation required more capex and expertise, and this will continue through generations. Meanwhile bandwidth and capacity demand from AI accelerators will keep growing vertically. This will create an environment where only the incumbents with strong cash flows will be able to make necessary capex spending and customers won’t risk diversifying away, keeping the process expertise trapped with the incumbents, just like it happened with $TSM in foundry business. So, memory names can really be ridiculously cheap.

Oguz Erkan

77,171 次观看 • 2 个月前

Jensen Huang: “We need memory for… HBM memory for performance. We need LPDDR for low-power memory.” Reporter: Is memory constraint an issue for NVIDIA this year? Jensen Huang: “The entire supply chain is challenging this year because demand is so much more. Supply has been growing 100% every year, but demand is going faster than that. We are going to have a very good year.” We are entering a Memory Supercycle $MU
0:50

Jensen Huang: “We need memory for… HBM memory for performance. We need LPDDR for low-power memory.” Reporter: Is memory constraint an issue for NVIDIA this year? Jensen Huang: “The entire supply chain is challenging this year because demand is so much more. Supply has been growing 100% every year, but demand is going faster than that. We are going to have a very good year.” We are entering a Memory Supercycle $MU

NIK

217,217 次观看 • 5 个月前

Gavin Baker accurately predicted Micron's 10x run in 2025 Now he's making his next big call: "DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler CapEx next year, every hundreds of billions of dollars spent goes straight to DRAM" He calls it the single most important bottleneck in all of AI, above lasers, power chips, NAND or HDDs, Elon is even turning the TeraFab toward memory because he sees the same thing Only three firms on earth can make the memory these AI servers need "This is as close to magic as science can get" And Micron just locked in supply contracts covering half its revenue, with floor prices already above the margin peaks of past cycles, the economics of the stock are not what they were "If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, that discount is no longer earned" bookmark it, one of the strongest memory theses for 2026-2027 ↓
5:47

Gavin Baker accurately predicted Micron's 10x run in 2025 Now he's making his next big call: "DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler CapEx next year, every hundreds of billions of dollars spent goes straight to DRAM" He calls it the single most important bottleneck in all of AI, above lasers, power chips, NAND or HDDs, Elon is even turning the TeraFab toward memory because he sees the same thing Only three firms on earth can make the memory these AI servers need "This is as close to magic as science can get" And Micron just locked in supply contracts covering half its revenue, with floor prices already above the margin peaks of past cycles, the economics of the stock are not what they were "If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, that discount is no longer earned" bookmark it, one of the strongest memory theses for 2026-2027 ↓

Damir Akaza

815,657 次观看 • 15 天前

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Apple is lobbying the Trump administration to approve memory chips from CXMT, a Chinese company blacklisted by the Pentagon over alleged military ties. Apple is now seeking lower-cost memory chips as AI-driven demand has pushed memory prices higher. Even if that means sourcing from a company the US has blacklisted over alleged military ties. Apple CEO Tim Cook went public blaming memory suppliers for the company's latest price hikes. Memory makers, however, tell a different story. Micron’s Chief Business Officer, Sadana, told the Wall Street Journal that "certain customers" pushed memory chip prices so low during the last downturn that Micron couldn’t invest enough in expanding production. Although he didn’t name Apple, he suggested those pricing demands led to today’s global memory shortage and the higher prices consumers are now paying.
0:33

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Apple is lobbying the Trump administration to approve memory chips from CXMT, a Chinese company blacklisted by the Pentagon over alleged military ties. Apple is now seeking lower-cost memory chips as AI-driven demand has pushed memory prices higher. Even if that means sourcing from a company the US has blacklisted over alleged military ties. Apple CEO Tim Cook went public blaming memory suppliers for the company's latest price hikes. Memory makers, however, tell a different story. Micron’s Chief Business Officer, Sadana, told the Wall Street Journal that "certain customers" pushed memory chip prices so low during the last downturn that Micron couldn’t invest enough in expanding production. Although he didn’t name Apple, he suggested those pricing demands led to today’s global memory shortage and the higher prices consumers are now paying.

CryptoTweets

1,708,380 次观看 • 16 天前

.Dylan Patel forecasts that iPhones could get $250 more expensive for consumers. Smartphone sales could drop from 1.1 billion a year to 500-600 million over the next couple of years, with the low end getting crushed hardest. Around a third of big tech's $600 billion in CapEx this year is going to memory alone. And as AI labs lock up more and more of the world's memory production on long-term contracts at higher margins, there's simply less left for everyone else. The effects are even more extreme than you might think. AI accelerators use HBM, which is made from stacking the DRAM that goes into phones and laptops, but which takes about four times more wafer area per byte. So you have to destroy four bytes of consumer demand for every one byte given to AI. For the first time in decades, consumer computing is going to get incrementally worse year on year, not better. But the price will go up dramatically at the same time.
2:14

.Dylan Patel forecasts that iPhones could get $250 more expensive for consumers. Smartphone sales could drop from 1.1 billion a year to 500-600 million over the next couple of years, with the low end getting crushed hardest. Around a third of big tech's $600 billion in CapEx this year is going to memory alone. And as AI labs lock up more and more of the world's memory production on long-term contracts at higher margins, there's simply less left for everyone else. The effects are even more extreme than you might think. AI accelerators use HBM, which is made from stacking the DRAM that goes into phones and laptops, but which takes about four times more wafer area per byte. So you have to destroy four bytes of consumer demand for every one byte given to AI. For the first time in decades, consumer computing is going to get incrementally worse year on year, not better. But the price will go up dramatically at the same time.

Dwarkesh Patel

186,126 次观看 • 4 个月前

MICRON $MU CEO SAYS THE COMPANY CAN ONLY SUPPLY 50-65% OF WHAT CUSTOMERS NEED RIGHT NOW This isn’t just Micron, Samsung, or SK Hynix. It’s a full-stack constraint that benefits the broader memory and storage ecosystem, including NAND from $SNDK and $WDC, capacity-driven disks from $STX, and system-level storage platforms and arrays from $P. AI demand for DRAM is outpacing supply by an “unprecedented” gap. New fabs take years, and the shortage is expected to persist beyond 2026.
1:26

MICRON $MU CEO SAYS THE COMPANY CAN ONLY SUPPLY 50-65% OF WHAT CUSTOMERS NEED RIGHT NOW This isn’t just Micron, Samsung, or SK Hynix. It’s a full-stack constraint that benefits the broader memory and storage ecosystem, including NAND from $SNDK and $WDC, capacity-driven disks from $STX, and system-level storage platforms and arrays from $P. AI demand for DRAM is outpacing supply by an “unprecedented” gap. New fabs take years, and the shortage is expected to persist beyond 2026.

Sam Badawi

385,928 次观看 • 2 个月前

"Everyone's making fun of these Koreans for being long memory stocks. But we're talking single-digit P/E multiples. It's probably going to last 2-3 more years. Triple digit growth." — tae kim "Layer that onto the fact that 4 years ago, all these memory companies saw their revenue get cut in half. So they didn't expand capacity. And it takes 3-4 years to expand capacity." "We're going to see mega pricing power. We haven't seen anything yet. These stocks are going to keep going higher, and their revenue rates are going to be astronomical."
1:32

"Everyone's making fun of these Koreans for being long memory stocks. But we're talking single-digit P/E multiples. It's probably going to last 2-3 more years. Triple digit growth." — tae kim "Layer that onto the fact that 4 years ago, all these memory companies saw their revenue get cut in half. So they didn't expand capacity. And it takes 3-4 years to expand capacity." "We're going to see mega pricing power. We haven't seen anything yet. These stocks are going to keep going higher, and their revenue rates are going to be astronomical."

TBPN

156,362 次观看 • 1 个月前