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EARTH'S POWER GRIDS ARE SWEATING — STARLINK’S BEEN COOL FOR A WHILE Battery demand is off the charts! The grid is panicking. Starlink's been there. Charged that! ELON: “Eventually, it might be like 90% or more of all power on Earth will be solar panels with batteries. My predictions...

96,368 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk just showed you the machine that will power the rest of human history. The world is convinced we are running out of energy. The grid is cracking. AI is consuming power faster than anyone can produce it. Governments are pouring billions into holes in the ground to burn whatever is left. Musk pointed at the sky. Musk: “With the Starlink satellite network, there’s 7,000 satellites orbiting the Earth, and all they use is solar panels and a battery.” 7,000 machines. Circling the planet at 17,000 miles per hour. In the most hostile environment humans have ever operated in. No grid. No supply chain. No second chance. If you lose power in orbit, you are dead. And every single one of them runs on two components. A sheet of glass that catches a star. And a battery that holds it. That is not a theory. That is 7,000 proof points screaming the same answer from low Earth orbit. Now he is pulling that exact architecture down to the surface. Musk: “Eventually, it might be like 90% or more of all power on Earth will be solar panels with batteries.” Every institution on Earth will tell you this is impossible. The grid is too complex. Base load demands something burning at all times. Musk: “My predictions have a pretty good track record.” Now zoom out. For ten thousand years, civilization ran on death. We burned dead wood. Dead plants. Dead organisms crushed into oil across millions of years. Every watt of power the modern world has ever used was ripped from something dead and buried in the dark. That era is ending. We are about to disconnect civilization from the ground beneath it. Stop digging for fuel. Start harvesting the fusion reactor that has been burning 93 million miles above us for 4.6 billion years. We were never running out of energy. We were looking down when the answer was up.

Dustin

35,389 views • 3 months ago

The first question I asked Elon Musk: What’s the point of sending GPUs into space? The whole idea behind orbital data centers is that if the launch costs continue to drop, it will become cheaper to put GPUs in orbit than to build power plants on Earth. The problem with this argument is that energy is only about 15% of a datacenter’s lifetime cost. The chips themselves are around 70%. And you still have to launch those to space! Elon kept returning to one point over and over again: It will simply not be physically possible to scale power production to the scale needed for AI on Earth. He kept pointing out the bottlenecks we’ve already run into on Earth: You can’t plug into the utilities - the interconnect queues are too long. You can’t do behind-the-meter natural gas and generate power yourself - lead times for turbines stretch past 2030. You can’t do solar on Earth, because of permits, and because of the tariffs. For it to make economical sense to shift compute to space, all of the following things would need to be true: - Power generation on Earth hits a ceiling, or AI demand outstrips every terrestrial option (for context, 1 TW of solar power is only 1% of the land area of the US, and AI currently only uses about 20 GW globally). - Chip production scales faster than power generation (because Elon builds TeraFab). It would be surprising if building and placing solar panels turned out to be harder than scaling semiconductor manufacturing. - Starship reaches thousands of launches per year. In that world, Elon wins the AI race outright. SpaceX is the only entity that can launch at that scale. xAI would have unlimited power. Everyone else will be stuck fighting over grid interconnects and turbine orders. And if those 3 conditions aren’t met? Well, on Earth, xAI is just gonna be one of the pack anyways - and there’s no market for the 4th best AI model. Elon’s comparative advantage was never going to be navigating utility interconnect queues or filing permits faster than Google. His advantage is SpaceX. So why not just bet on the world where SpaceX becomes the kingmaker? I asked Elon what that world looks like. 100 GW = 10,000 starship launches, and he wants to do more than that every year by 2030. That’s one starship launch every hour.

Dwarkesh Patel

404,497 views • 5 months ago