Elon just confirmed how long every working human has left before the robots take over. "AI will probably increase the global economy by 20 to 30%. That's my rough estimate. Meaning, on the order of 20 to 30 trillion per year." So that's a second United States economy appearing... out of thin air, EVERY single year. And Elon's whole point is that the machines produce it, not the people. He even gave us the exact date for the digital half: "AI will be able to do anything digital, anything that does not require the shaping of atoms by hand, by the end of next year." By the end of next year... And on software specifically: "It's going to be impossible for a human to compete in writing software with AI." So every coder, every analyst, every job that lives on a screen is on a 12 to 18 month timer, straight from the richest man alive. But that's only the part that runs on electricity. And this is where it gets crazy... "There will be at least a billion robots in 10 years, and each will produce at least five times the output of a human." "The billion humanoid robots will be more productive than all humans combined." A billion machines, out-working ALL 8 billion of us. And he put a deadline on it: 10 years. And he even called that estimate small. So the version where robots out-produce the entire human race is the number he treats as safe. He said he'd bet serious money on it. But how does a billion of anything get built that fast? Robots building robots building robots. It starts slow and then it goes vertical. That’s how a few thousand becomes a billion. Elon also explained his own formula for how useful a robot actually is. He said it's the quality of the AI software, times the quality of the AI chip, times the dexterity of the hands. Software and chips are the exact things Elon and Nvidia have spent a decade making exponential. The third one is the hand. And the hand is the thing robotics has been stuck on for 40 years. A machine can crush the best human alive at chess and still can't pick a strange object off a messy table the way a toddler can. Grip, pressure, touch, knowing how hard to squeeze. That problem has barely moved while everything digital went vertical. The thing he named as the hard part is the exact thing his whole 10 year number depends on. So it all comes down to one variable, and it's the slowest-moving one in the entire machine: The robot hand. The brain is basically solved. The fingers have to catch up to it this decade, at planetary scale. Now to be fair, this is also where the most money on Earth is pointed right now. Tesla and a dozen others are throwing everything at exactly this problem. Elon's software calls tend to land but his atoms calls tend to fail. Because anything physical always takes longer than anything digital. He's also made this exact robot call before with wildly different numbers, 10 billion of them by 2040 in one speech, five per human in another. So here's the real question: Do you believe robot hands get solved inside 10 years? Because that one bet is the core of Elon‘s prediction. Everything else already came true.show more

His forward looking predictions aren’t worth a fuck.

Keep in mind all these numbers are promoted because these guys need investors excited. No mention of all the exponential, unforeseen outside circumstances that will cause these estimates to be recalculated again and again.

Anyone who believes this is a fucking moron. Reminder of that time Elon told us when we would be on mars lol

Elon has not been right one single time on any prediction he has ever made about the future

Elon has never predicted a correct timeline in his lifetime and he’s often incorrect insofar as a lot of what he says never even happens or hasn’t happened yet so I call bullshit

He's wrong. Spiritual backlash and he can't stop that.

Can’t we go back to the 70’s pls

Who wants robots doing everything so no one has jobs? What happens then?

He needs to lay off the ketamine. Fuckin vaporware salesman. He couldn't even release the solar roof tiles

The problem with Elons way of thinking about this is the ridiculous wealth divide we have going in the United States. Most of the wealth being generated by tech is going to an extremely small percentage of US citizens.

And then people are surprised at why there is such a huge Backlash against AI and AI Data Centers; this asshat still talking outloud about his Anti-Human fantasies.

I've been watching Elon since I bought my first Tesla in 2016. The man is prone to making predictions with timelines attached that miss their targets. And not just by a small amount.

Time to buy land

If one has to pay child support , how will they do it if they can’t work?

And his DOGE prediction… garbage. He doesn’t understand the monetary system and how much debt would have to be created to expand by that sum. And his Tesla car sales forecast for 2030 has been worthless.

AI will allow corporate greed to an extent we’ve never seen before and our younger generations will suffer the most. There will be little to no entry level or mid level positions available. Anything for more money

Sounds like we’re all just waiting for the rent check from the new US economy.

Robots won't take blue collar jobs for a long time. Yea a job like gardening yea that might suffer but not the technical trades that require extreme hand to eye coordination and touch to get the job done.

This is 100% false. Software engineers will still be employed in 12 months... They have been saying this shit for over half a decade now and man am i getting tired of hearing it. They've been saying "All software engineers will be replaced in 6 months" for 6 years straight...

Who is going to produce the amount of resources for those robots to be built in the first place? Elon is kinda dumb with some of this stuff. The AI bubble is already in the middle of popping and they are still trying to hype it up. It's insanity.

Sadly, Elon is becoming the new Al Gore. AI is not gonna do that.

This is a very good analysis, but I think the bottleneck is bigger than the hand. The hand is extraordinarily difficult. But a useful humanoid needs the entire loop: Perceive. Understand. Plan. Move. Manipulate. Detect failure. Correct. Try again. Picking up a screwdriver in a laboratory is one problem. Finding the correct screwdriver in my garage without knocking over a paint can, stepping on the cat, discovering the screw is stripped, choosing another tool and improvising a solution is something else entirely. Humans call this Tuesday. Robotics calls it an extremely hostile unstructured environment. Then comes the other monster hiding behind the prediction: manufacturing one billion enormously complicated machines. Motors. Sensors. Actuators. Chips. Batteries. Materials. Factories. Energy. Maintenance. Supply chains. Robots building robots creates the exponential curve Musk describes only after enough of that physical production loop becomes autonomous. So I wouldn't reduce the bet to whether robot hands are solved. The real bet is whether we can move AI from the wonderfully controlled universe of bits into the spectacularly inconvenient universe of atoms. Software gets to assume the floor isn't wet. Robots don't.

This is totally "The Terminator" playing out right before our Eyes. And the stubborn Tech Companies, driven by greed, are letting it happen, and they will be the first ones to regret and perish. Aug 29, 1997, the D-Day of the movie, just got postponed to perhaps Aug 29, 2037 instead.

He also said they'd be on mars..

Who purchases the goods and services sold to unemployed consumers?

AI is useful however it is highly overrated. It won’t replace anyone. Robots, hardware and software alike, will augment our reality not replace it. AI requires human direction and supervision and always will until God’s creations cease to exist.

Yeah this will be absolutely terrible for humanity

The question I have is: what happens to us in this scenario? Haven't seen many hopeful predictions for that.

Who will be the consumer?

He also said we'd be on mars by now

And how will humans survive if robots take their jobs, and I don't think Elon Musk is going to redistribute his wealth to them?

We replace ourselves eventually with integration. Swapping parts for the sake of bypassing the natural experiment of evolving ourselves. Essentially, you create something to do the work for you so you can do nothing. That's a bad path anyway you cut it.

Elon never tells us that all poor people will be killed.

Anyone believing that robots will bring some sort of free living utopia are delusional. If anything it will only make corporations richer and you poorer.

Still waiting for his prediction of a single self driving car to drive all the way across the US without intervention to come true. Also, if his predictions did come true and robots and AI did all the work, it would probably tank the economy. If people aren’t working because human labor is no longer valued, then who’s buying all the stuff the robots are making? And please don’t say UBI, because that’s a fantasy that won’t happen. We currently have a homelessness problem that society just lets fester. Many look at the homeless as a nuisance. They want the police to step in and take them to a camp somewhere. When people are seen as worthless the reaction isn’t compassion, it’s condemnation. Do you really think that once the tech oligarchs have replaced the majority of the jobs with robots and AI and we have mass unemployment, these billionaires will suddenly have a change of heart and say “on second thought, yes please take a substantial portion of my riches and use it to feed and house people.”? Please spare me.