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Elon Musk: I didn't think SpaceX would succeed – and it almost didn't. “We started off developing a small rocket, which was kind of a scale model version and proceeded to have three failed launches in a row. For various technical reasons, the first three launches did not succeed...

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Elon Musk: My initial plan was not to start a rocket company. I just wanted to fund a one-time Oasis mission to Mars. “I started off initially with the idea of doing something in the space exploration arena. In fact, it wasn't actually with the idea of creating a company. It was initially with the thought of spurring interest in sending people to Mars. So I put together this idea called Mars Oasis, which was to send a small greenhouse to the surface of Mars and get people excited about the idea of going there and thus increase NASA's budget in order to make it happen. As I got more and more into that, I discovered that the real issue was that the cost of space transportation was really high, and it was getting worse. So we're used to technology getting better every year, but in some arenas it actually does not. It gets worse, particularly when you consider that in 1969 we were able to go to the moon and then we were unable to go beyond low Earth orbit. And now with the space shuttle retired, we're not even able to go to Earth orbit at all, even with people. That was not the right trajectory. So I actually went to Russia three times to look at buying an ICBM to launch this mission. Just very crazy. After my third trip of trying to negotiate with the Russians to buy an ICBM and I did actually get a deal, so figured out what it would cost and everything. But I concluded that my initial assumption had been wrong, that it was not a question of trying to generate more will to explore. Because I think the United States in particular is distillation of the human spirit of exploration. Space exploration is fundamental to the American psyche. But people really need to believe that it can be done and it's not going to break the bank if it does. So that's when I decided to start a rocket company. And I actually didn't think it would succeed and it almost didn't. We started off developing a small rocket which was kind of a scale model version. It was about 100,000 pounds of thrust. So big, you know, big, big by normal standards, but small for a rocket. And developed the engine and the airframe and the electronics and the guidance control system and then proceeded to have three failed launches in a row. And so for various technical reasons, the first three launches did not succeed in reaching orbit. Launches two and three did get to space, but they didn't achieve enough speed to reach orbital velocity. So this is 2008. And so we were heading into the recession and we had one rocket left. And fortunately in late 2008, that fourth launch did work and we made it to orbit. And then we won a NASA contract after that. And so fortunately things worked out. But if that fourth launch had not worked, then SpaceX wouldn't be around. So it was very close call. In fact, when I started I thought, okay, I've got enough money, I think I've got enough money for three launches. Fortunately, it was just enough to make that fourth one.” Montana Jobs Summit, September 16, 2013

ELON CLIPS

24,586 views • 2 months ago

ELON MUSK: “We had the third consecutive failure of the Falcon 1 rocket for SpaceX. Tesla almost went bankrupt. We closed our financing round 6 p.m. Christmas Eve, 2008. It was the last hour of the last day that it was possible. We would have gone bankrupt two days after Christmas otherwise. What's your pain threshold? Well, it's real high. So, yeah, SpaceX is alive by the skin of its teeth. So is Tesla. If things had just gone a little bit the other way, both companies would be dead. And one of the most difficult choices I have ever faced in life was in 2008. I think I had maybe $30 million or $40 million left in 2008, and I had two choices. I could put it all into one company, and then the other company would definitely die. Or split it between the two companies. But if I split it between the two companies, then both might die. And when you put your blood, sweat, and tears into creating something, building something, it's like a child. So it's like, which one am I going to let one starve to death? I couldn't bring myself to do it, so I split the money between the two. Fortunately, thank goodness, they both came through. (2:00) ... Well, there's a ton of failures along the way, that's for sure. As I said, for SpaceX, the first three launches failed. We were just barely able to scrape together enough parts and money to do the fourth launch. If that fourth launch had failed, we would have been dead. So, multiple failures along the way. I tried very hard to get the right expertise in for SpaceX. I tried hard to find a great chief engineer for the rocket, but the good chief engineers wouldn't join, and the bad ones, well, there was no point in hiring them, so I ended up being chief engineer of the rocket. So if I could have found somebody better, then we would have maybe had less than three failures.”

Dima Zeniuk

90,275 views • 7 months ago

Elon Musk on the hardest decision in his life: “It's just when I started running out of money from PayPal and the markets went into a recession, that's when bankruptcy was knocking at the door. It was in 2008. From 2008 through 2012, bankruptcy was knocking at the door. I had one of the toughest decisions I ever had to make in 2008. I had like $40 million left or something from the PayPal sale. And I could put it all on SpaceX or all on Tesla and increase the probability that either one would survive. Or I could split it. But to me, the company's like a kid. It's not like just a company to me. So it's sort of like if you've got two kids, how could you really say, okay, we're going to let one kid starve? So I was like, I couldn't bring myself to say I'm going to, you know, definitely that company's going to die or definitely that company's going to die. So I ended up splitting the money and gave $20 million to Tesla and $20 million to SpaceX. But that could have ended up being a super dumb decision, and both companies could have gone bankrupt as a result. So at the time, I was like, 'Man, this would really suck if both companies go bankrupt because I kind of split the meal.' But then, fortunately, the fourth launch of SpaceX reached orbit. If that fourth launch had failed, SpaceX would be dead for sure. And then we closed the Tesla financing round on the last hour of the last day that it was possible, which was 6 p.m. December 24th, 2008.”

Eva Fo𝕏 🦊 Claudius Nero's Legion

317,697 views • 9 months ago

Sergey Brin on AI and Jeff Dean back in December when Gemini peaked: “I would say in some ways we for sure messed up in that we underinvested and sort of didn't take it as seriously as we should have, say, eight years ago when we published the Transformer paper. We actually didn't take it all that seriously and didn't necessarily invest in scaling the compute. And also we were too scared to bring it to people because chatbots say dumb things. And, you know, OpenAI ran with it, which is good for them. It was a super smart insight, and it was also our people like Ilya who went there to do that. But I do think we still have benefited from that long history. So we had a lot of the research and development of neural networks kind of going back to Google Brain. That was also kind of lucky. It wasn't luck that we hired Jeff Dean. I mean, we were lucky to get him. But we were in this sort of mindset that deep technical things matter. And so we hired him. We hired a lot of people from DEC, honestly, because they had the top research labs at the time. But he [Jeff Dean] was passionate about neural networks. And it stemmed, I think, from actually his college experiment. I don't know. He was like, whatever, curing third world disease and figuring out neural networks when he was like 16. He's done crazy things. But he was passionate about it. He built up a whole effort. And actually in my division at the time in Google X. We had him but I didn't I was like okay Jeff you do whatever you want. He's like oh we can tell cats from dogs. I'm like oh okay cool. But you know, you also trust your technical people and soon enough they were developing all these algorithms these neural nets that were doing some of our search. And then, you know, Noam came up with a transformer and we were able to do more and more. But yeah, I mean, so we had the underpinnings, we had the R&D. We did underinvest for a number of years and didn't take it as seriously as we should have.” Both Jeff Dean and Noam Shazeer left Google in the past two months.

tae kim

247,281 views • 7 days ago

Here's Elon Musk back in 2010 announcing that SpaceX is going to try to build a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. “The pivotal breakthrough that's necessary, that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. Even for an expendable launch vehicle where you don't attempt any recovery, you get maybe 2% to 3% of your liftoff weight to orbit. Now you say, okay, let's make it reusable. Which means you've got to strengthen the stages, you've got to add a lot of weight, a lot of thermal protection, you've got to do a lot of things that add weight to that vehicle and still have a useful payload to orbit. Now, you're saying, of that meager 2% to 3% and maybe if you're really good, get it to 4%, you've got to add all that's necessary to bring the rocket stages back to the launchpad and be able to refly them and still have useful payloads to orbit. So, a very difficult thing. This has been attempted many times in the past and generally what's happened is when people have concluded that success was not one of the possible outcomes then the project's been abandoned. It's just a very tough engineering problem. It wasn't something that I thought I wasn't sure it could be solved, for a while, but then relatively recently, probably in the last 12 months or so, I've come to the conclusion that it can be solved. And I think SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail. I'm not saying we're certain of success here, but we're going to try to do it. We have a design that on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, it does work. And now we need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree because generally when they don't, reality wins.” National Press Club, September 29, 2010

ELON CLIPS

14,920 views • 11 months ago