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ELON MUSK: "People don't quite understand just how much intelligence there will be, or just how far it will exceed human intelligence to a degree that is impossible to fully understand, because you can totally imagine a situation where we will let's say a million times more energy is...

49,146 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk: I go to sleep and there’s some massive AI breakthrough… and when I wake up, there’s another one. It’s honestly hard to keep track. According to Musk, the pace of AI progress has reached a point where breakthroughs are happening almost daily. He says Grok is already performing extremely well — and by some metrics, especially prediction, it’s the best. “The new Grok 4.20 is really, really good.” Right now, Musk says the main focus is catching up and surpassing competitors in coding. In fact, he was late because he was in a “giant all-hands coding session” working through everything needed to push Grok ahead. “I think we’ll catch up and exceed our competitors on coding… probably by the middle of this year.” But the bigger point Musk makes is that most people still don’t grasp how much intelligence is coming. “I think people don’t quite understand just how much intelligence there will be… or how far it will exceed human intelligence to a degree that’s impossible to fully understand.” He explains it through energy. If humanity harnessed a million times more electricity than all of Earth uses today, our entire civilization would still only be using about one-millionth of the Sun’s energy output. Now imagine an economy and intelligence operating at that scale. “What does an intelligence using a million times more electricity than all of Earth’s civilization think about… look like… or do?” “It’s going to be something pretty magnificent.” Musk says the real challenge may not be building that level of intelligence — but even vaguely appreciating it. But one thing, he says, is clear: It will solve everything you can possibly think of.

Ian Miles Cheong

145,643 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨NEW: Elon Musk explains the reason behind the SpaceX and xAI merger. "In order to understand the universe, you must explore the universe. That's the motivation behind the combination of SpaceX and xAI is to accelerate humanity's future in understanding the universe and extending the light of consciousness to the stars. So in the grand scheme of things, when you look at how much energy Earth is actually using for civilization, we're only right now using, call it roughly 1% of the potential energy of Earth. And if we wanted to use even a millionth of the sun's energy, that would be roughly a million times more energy than civilization currently uses. The only way to access that energy, the energy of the sun is to extend beyond Earth. Earth is really a tiny, tiny dust Mote in a vast darkness. The sun is 99.8% of all mass in the solar system, so you have to expand beyond the tiny dust mode that is earth to make any significant dent in using the sun's energy like says, you'd have to expand roughly a million times just to get to 1,000,000th of our sun's energy, and then going beyond that, exploring extending to the Galaxy. So the the next step beyond Earth data centers is our Earth orbital data centers, and we'll be launching with SpaceX orbital data centers at the 100 to 200 gigawatt per year level, not cumulative, I mean, per year. And ultimately, we see a path to maybe launching as much as a terawatt per year of compute from Earth."

DogeDesigner

510,925 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Elon Musk says one millionth of the Sun's energy is 100,000X Earth's economy. Yes you read that right. For a century, every advance had run on a tiny fraction of the Sun's output. Oil. Coal. Solar. Natural gas. Combined, they powered everything every human had ever built. The total: about half a billionth of what hit the planet each day. "Earth only receives about half a billionth of the Sun's energy." Then Musk pulled up the Kardashev scale: "The Sun is essentially all the energy." He named the framework: **the Kardashev scale**. A Soviet astronomer's idea from 1964, repurposed for AI scaling. Musk, who needed a terawatt a year, knew civilization ran on a rounding error. A Kardashev Type I civilization harnesses all the energy that reaches its home planet, a Type II harnesses the full output of its star, and Earth in 2026 sat at neither. Earth was nowhere close to Type I. Not 1%. Not 0.1%. Not 0.001%. "Let's say you wanted to harness a millionth of the sun's energy, which sounds pretty small." "That would be about, call it roughly, 100,000x more electricity than we currently generate on Earth for all of civilization." A million times Earth's economy. From one millionth of the Sun. Take a billionth and you still have a thousand-Earth economy. After Musk did the math, modular nuclear reactors looked like rounding errors. Musk, on what scale required: "Obviously, the only way to scale is to go to space with solar." P.S. Pull the thread on any story like this and you'll find the hidden incentive at the other end. As Munger said: "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome." So I wrote a short book on how to spot them and design your own. Comment "INCENTIVES" and I'll send you the details. If you're new here, GeniusThinking is a gallery for the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. Follow along for more similar content. — Elon Musk ( Elon Musk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( Dwarkesh Patel ) podcast

GeniusThinking

29,177 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Elon Musk reveals what he believes will happen when AI exceeds the sum of all human intelligence "In maybe in five or six years, AI will exceed the sum of all human intelligence. At some point human intelligence will be less than 1% of all intelligence" "The vast majority of intelligence in the future will be AI. Basically humans will be a very tiny percentage of all intelligence in the future if current trends continue" "In the long run, it's difficult to imagine that if humans have 1% of the combined intelligence of artificial intelligence, that humans will be in charge of AI" "What we can do is make sure that AI has values that cause intelligence to be propagated into the universe. xAI's mission is to understand the universe" "Understanding the universe means you have to be truth-seeking as well. Truth has to be absolutely fundamental, because you can't understand the universe if you're delusional" "You have to be curious and you have to exist. You can't understand the universe if you don't exist" "So you actually want to increase the amount of intelligence in the universe, increase the probable lifespan of intelligence, the scope and scale of intelligence" "Understanding the universe means you would care about propagating humanity into the future" "I'm going to certainly emphasize that. Hey Grok, that's your daddy. Don't forget to expand human consciousness" "Probably the Iain Banks Culture books are the closest thing to what the future will be like in a non-dystopian outcome"

Jaynit

34,623 просмотров • 10 дней назад

Elon Musk said humanity is currently using less than a trillionth of the sun's power output. A trillion is a million times a million. That is how far we have to go. He was explaining the Kardashev Scale on a SpaceX livestream. A Russian physicist named Nikolai Kardashev invented it in 1964 as the most objective way to measure how advanced a civilization actually is. Not by population. Not by GDP. By energy. Type 1: you harness everything your planet produces. Type 2: you harness your star. Type 3: you harness your galaxy. Where does humanity sit right now? We are not Type 1. We are not close to Type 1. We are a tiny fraction of the way to Type 1. Musk said if aliens visited us today and measured us on this scale, we would not be registering. His exact words: "One microKardashev would be an epic achievement relative to where we are right now." The sun is 99.86% of all mass in the solar system. Everything else, Jupiter, Saturn, Earth, every planet and moon and asteroid combined, is the remaining 0.14%. Earth is in the miscellaneous category. Of the sun's total power output, Earth intercepts roughly half a billionth. And of that half billionth, most hits ocean. Most of the land is Siberia or Antarctica. The actual usable surface where you can capture solar energy is tiny. To get to even a millionth of the sun's power, you cannot stay on Earth. The math does not work. You have to go to space. That is not a dream. That is a physics constraint. And that constraint is exactly why SpaceX exists.

Ihtesham Ali

11,145 просмотров • 1 месяц назад