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Elon-Sam Rivalry Next Chapter > Sam hints OpenAI has self driving tech > that can be deployed to standard cars Looks like a pincer move to destabilize Tesla's soaring stock, and reduce ability to fundraise off the upcoming FSD launch Titanic..,.

241,931 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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.Elon Musk says that "the right metric for intelligence is the ability to predict the future." Elon says that if your predictions are not very good, you're not that smart. During his interview with CNBC, Elon confirmed that there would be fully autonomous Teslas on the streets of Austin by the end of June. I predicted that Tesla would not have non-geofenced, unsupervised Full Self-Driving Teslas in Austin by July 1. Today is July 1, and Elon's predictions were completely wrong. By his own definition of intelligence, he is not that smart. I have always been better at predicting things about Tesla Full Self-Driving than Elon Musk is. That's why No Safe Words crowned me the "world's leading autonomous vehicle safety expert". As I predicted, Tesla's "Robotaxi" is geofenced to a small area in Austin. It is not autonomous, and is supervised both remotely and from the passenger seat. The only passengers it has carried so far are Tesla Cultists and shareholders. Tesla has not launched a real robotaxi service like the one Waymo operates. The 11 supervised robotaxis it has deployed made at least 17 safety critical and driving errors in just the first week of operation. Elon predicted in October 2024 that Tesla would have a 30% growth in sales in 2025. Tesla's sales fell 13% in Q1 2025 and tomorrow's delivery numbers are expected to be similarly terrible. I predict that Tesla's sales growth in 2025 will be less than 30%. Elon also predicted every year for the past 11 years that Tesla would solve autonomous driving by the end of the year. His predictions have been wrong every single year for over a decade. I predict that Tesla will not solve autonomous driving this year. Elon says "you're as intelligent as you can predict the future well". He is terrible at predicting the future, so according to "the right metric for intelligence", he is not that smart. Elon also predicted that Tesla would have a "thousand" robotaxis "within a few months" during his CNBC interview. I predict that by October 1, Tesla will not have 1,000 robotaxis offering unsupervised rides to ordinary customers.

Dan O'Dowd

128,935 views • 1 year ago

Ronan Farrow just did to Sam Altman what he did to Harvey Weinstein... The New Yorker dropped an 18-month investigation this morning based on 100+ interviews and a stack of internal documents that were never supposed to leave OpenAI. Ilya's secret memos, Dario Amodei's private journal. Board communications, the full picture of who Sam Altman is when the cameras are off. And the pattern starts way before OpenAI. At his first startup Loopt, senior employees went to the board and asked them to fire Sam as CEO. This happened twice, over concerns about leadership and transparency. He left, joined Y Combinator, and the same thing played out. Partners complained to Paul Graham about Sam's behavior. Graham's private take to colleagues: Sam had been lying to us all the time. Nobody removed him, he kept getting promoted. Eventually he landed the CEO seat at what is now the most consequential AI company in the world. Inside OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever spent months compiling evidence: 70 pages of Slack messages, HR documents, and photos taken on personal phones because employees knew company devices were being monitored. He sent everything to the board as disappearing messages so Sam couldn't make it go away. The very first line of his memo lists Sam's core pattern, and the first word on that list is: Lying Dario Amodei saw the same thing and handled it differently. He kept a private journal for years, over 200 pages, titled "My Experience with OpenAI" with a subheading that said "Private: Do Not Share" After all those pages, his conclusion was one sentence: the problem with OpenAI is Sam himself. He eventually left and built Anthropic. 2 of the smartest people in AI independently reached the same verdict. Neither could stop what was happening. The superalignment team, the group responsible for making sure AI doesn't go off the rails, was promised 20% of OpenAI's compute. 4 people who worked on or with the team told The New Yorker the real number was 1-2%, running on the oldest cluster with the worst hardware. The team got dissolved before finishing its work. Safety was a talking point, not a priority. Sam told the board that a safety panel had approved controversial features in GPT-4. When board member Helen Toner asked for the documentation, it turned out the most sensitive features had never been approved at all. Separately, Microsoft released an early version of ChatGPT in India without completing a required safety review and Sam never mentioned it to the board. When the board finally fired him in November 2023, he texted Satya Nadella directly with his own replacement board lineup. Thrive Capital put its planned $86B investment on hold and signaled it would only close if Sam came back, giving every OpenAI employee a financial reason to support his return. The 2 board members selected to run the "independent investigation" into Sam's conduct were chosen after close conversations with Sam himself. He engineered his own reinstatement and nobody blinked. The New Yorker quotes a board member describing Sam as having two traits you almost never see in the same person: a desperate need to be liked in every interaction, and a near-complete indifference to the consequences of deceiving someone. Multiple sources used the word "sociopathic" without being prompted and without talking to each other. The article also drops a line that might be the best summary of the whole thing. They compare Sam to Steve Jobs and his famous "reality distortion field" then point out that even Jobs never told his customers that if they didn't buy his MP3 player, everyone they loved would die. Sam wrapped that exact pitch in the language of AI safety and rode it to a potential $1T IPO. That IPO is being prepared right now, while OpenAI signs government contracts spanning immigration enforcement, domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons deployed in active war zones. Meanwhile, The Information reports that his own CFO told colleagues she doesn't believe the company is ready to go public in 2026. Farrow is answering questions on Hacker News right now. The full piece is open access. Read it before Sam figures out how to make this disappear too

BP

16,557 views • 3 months ago

Are you safer with LIDAR, or are you safer with vision? This is a false dichotomy. The more pertinent question today is "do you have something, or do you have nothing?" As you can see from the clips below, vision based systems avoid countless potential collisions every day. The difference between a crash and no crash isn't what sensor suite you chose — it's whether you have any AI on your car at all. Even if we concede that LIDAR may help prevent some additional crashes, we are really debating whether it is 1% of crashes or 0.00001% of crashes. Not all crashes are super complex and require lasers to detect. Most are simple, routine, and can easily be prevented by today's vision based AI. In fact, evidence is mounting that computer vision based systems can actually outperform more traditional approaches to self-driving. Why? Because the low cost of cameras enables you to create a much larger, more varied, and more diverse dataset. If you want to have expensive custom cars that's fine, but you're going to get fewer vehicles for the same budget. Seeing what's in front of you now is actually less important than predicting what's going to happen next — and the large scale datasets used to train pure vision systems are the best for predicting what's next. Counter-intuitively, the simpler and lower cost sensor actually has properties that make it better suited for training advanced AI. Computer vision based self-driving is often framed by LIDAR proponents as "cheaping out" on the sensor suite to save money. But it's not about being cheap, it's about bringing the technology to everyone. 1.2 million people die on the road every year around the world. That's around 39 million people who've died on the roads around the world since I was born — equivalent to a city the size of Tokyo or New Delhi getting wiped off the map. The status quo is simply unacceptable, and something has to be done to fix it as soon as possible. Of the 1.2 million people that will die on the roads this year, about 40,000 will be Americans. That's about 3%. So if we moved entirely to self-driving cars in America and brought crashes down to 0, 97% of the world's crash fatalities would still be taking place as usual. Deploying a $200,000+ retrofitted self-driving car may work in a few American cities, but it is not going to make sense in most places around the world where fares are much cheaper. Most often, the choice is not between LIDAR and vision. It's between vision or nothing. The best system is the system that's there running on my car when I need it to save my life. To say that all self-driving cars must have LIDAR is to sentence most of the world to death. We can't write off computer vision if we want to make a serious dent in this problem. It's going to be a key piece of the solution. Let LIDAR based players build the best self-driving car they can, and let vision based players do the same. We need to be trying everything

Whole Mars Catalog

45,801 views • 1 year ago