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Episode 69: Volatility! Bitcoin is NOT Volatile in Log-Log Space: It's remarkably stable! It's a quasi-exponential asset. Most people are focused on "risk" Will fail to embrace it Monte Carlo Simulation Watch on my YouTube along with 59 other Bitcoin only videos! And Subscribe!

Fred Krueger #BIP-110

318,672 subscribers

26,823 次观看 • 2 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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10 条评论

Thomas Young 的头像

Thomas Young2 年前

Fred/Giovanni - the sinusoidal waves on the Log-Log space has had peaks slightly above 2 STD's and on 1 STD to the downside. My sense is that these sinusoidal waves are dampening through time and in log-log space, we should expect to see wave of diminishing differentials from the predicted price. Do you agree? @Giovann35084111

Fred Krueger 的头像

Fred Krueger2 年前

question is how much.

JM S 的头像

JM S2 年前

have no idea what you are talking about, but I listen and try to learn a bit... just here for the hopium

Bitcoin4all ⚡️ 的头像

Bitcoin4all ⚡️2 年前

Thanks for your insightful content!

exitstrat 的头像

exitstrat2 年前

Could you not sell when the price is 2 standard deviations above, knowing that it will mean revert and indeed will go 1 std deviation below? Even with 20% long-term capital gains, seems you'd come out significantly ahead--agree?/disagree?

Ro 的头像

Ro2 年前

A bitcoin will be like having a 1,000,000$ watch in the not distant future. A thing of marvel

21HeartsAfire 的头像

21HeartsAfire2 年前

Very much appreciate your level-headedness, Fred 🤝

Xan Nick 的头像

Xan Nick2 年前

You should have Giovanni an @nntaleb on to debate Bitcoin volatility with you moderating.

shaquille o'atmeal 的头像

shaquille o'atmeal2 年前

Very interesting

Jeff Moreau 的头像

Jeff Moreau2 年前

Hey Fred! Would be great to hear you analysis on how long grayscale can continue their sell off

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I’ve been a Balance Sheet Volatility manager my entire career (12+ years). Below is my presentation at Risk World yesterday. Focused on explaining the similarities of insurance balance sheet risk management to Bitcoin balance sheet risk management. The primary difference: Bitcoin data is more observable, easily accessible, and calculable in real time. This is a feature, not a bug. And btw, there were only about 12 people in the seats, and 2 were my own colleagues. 0:21–0:46 Background in reinsurance and risk 0:46–1:13 How this work changed his perspective on risk 1:13–1:37 Bitcoin as digital capital 1:57–2:42 Insurance, reinsurance, and volatility reduction 6:54–8:08 Turning Bitcoin volatility into a credit instrument 13:50–15:38 Risk modeling, experience rating, and Monte Carlo analysis 17:21–20:06 Monetary debasement and digital credit 20:06–24:22 Digital credit vs. catastrophe bonds

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Jeff Walton

20,094 次观看 • 3 个月前

Bitcoin is volatile. Thankfully. I’ve been building a simple crowd behavior simulation to show how volatility naturally emerges with price discovery. In this sim, volatility is not something we add to the model. It is what the model produces when people disagree, learn at different speeds, and use price itself as information. 1/n

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25,918 次观看 • 5 个月前

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70,773 次观看 • 8 个月前

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Mikli

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Milk Road

24,791 次观看 • 2 个月前

Forget the distractions America. The most important thing going on in this country is this. It will change American as we know it. We can only hope there's a plan....I believe there has always been a plan and it's NOT Bitcoin.

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Digital Asset Investor

156,228 次观看 • 3 年前

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Babylon

12,752 次观看 • 1 个月前

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62,587 次观看 • 3 个月前

"I think a lot of the innovation happens first on other chains. Then if it's going to scale, the Bitcoiner's will figure out how to do it on Bitcoin" - Michael Terpin Michael Turpin, Founder of BitAngels, Transform Ventures, and advisor to the Bitcoin L2 , talks about how he believes experimentation happens on other chains before, if it works, converging back to Bitcoin. The ZK-enabled Bitcoin Economy is here 🟠

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House of ZK

92,127 次观看 • 1 年前

"Bitcoin is oversold. It's been artificially lumped in with software stocks for no good reason." Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden) on why the crash hit Bitcoin harder than it should have: "The washout from the Treasury company mNAVs was painful. The quantum FUD had to be explored. The four-year cycle had to be tested. But I think the majority of the pain is behind us." "Gold went from undervalued to fairly valued fast, the market rightsized it. It's not a bubble, but it's somewhat euphoric right now." "Sentiment on Bitcoin is unfairly negative, to say the least." "Gun to my head, if I had to bet Bitcoin or gold over the next two to three years, I'd bet Bitcoin. I own both. I've always owned both. But if I had to pick, it's Bitcoin." Translation: the crash lumped Bitcoin in with the AI software selloff it has nothing to do with. Gold ran its move and is now near fair value. Bitcoin got sold on sentiment, not fundamentals, which is exactly the setup that reverses when risk appetite returns.

"Bitcoin is oversold. It's been artificially lumped in with software stocks for no good reason." Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden) on why the crash hit Bitcoin harder than it should have: "The washout from the Treasury company mNAVs was painful. The quantum FUD had to be explored. The four-year cycle had to be tested. But I think the majority of the pain is behind us." "Gold went from undervalued to fairly valued fast, the market rightsized it. It's not a bubble, but it's somewhat euphoric right now." "Sentiment on Bitcoin is unfairly negative, to say the least." "Gun to my head, if I had to bet Bitcoin or gold over the next two to three years, I'd bet Bitcoin. I own both. I've always owned both. But if I had to pick, it's Bitcoin." Translation: the crash lumped Bitcoin in with the AI software selloff it has nothing to do with. Gold ran its move and is now near fair value. Bitcoin got sold on sentiment, not fundamentals, which is exactly the setup that reverses when risk appetite returns.

Michaël van de Poppe

127,555 次观看 • 2 个月前

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zenBTC

12,453 次观看 • 1 年前

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Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER

George Noble

11,852 次观看 • 5 个月前

Buck was shut down, but $STRC is the king of Stable Coins. 0:00-17:45: Skip for Bitcoin only commentary People will lever STRC on-chain 10:1 using Morpho 🦋 & Aave (That's Bitcoin demand). 17:45-32:54: Josh Man and I are selling calls below Bitcoin's power law floor. Sminston With 👁's Power Law cost of production. Bitcoin and MSTR's Implied Volatility Charts. I'm levering spot, not buying long calls.

Buck was shut down, but $STRC is the king of Stable Coins. 0:00-17:45: Skip for Bitcoin only commentary People will lever STRC on-chain 10:1 using Morpho 🦋 & Aave (That's Bitcoin demand). 17:45-32:54: Josh Man and I are selling calls below Bitcoin's power law floor. Sminston With 👁's Power Law cost of production. Bitcoin and MSTR's Implied Volatility Charts. I'm levering spot, not buying long calls.

Dan Hillery

61,000 次观看 • 4 个月前

"Where are the servers of Bitcoin located?” - Prof Jiang That single question from Jiang shows the misunderstanding immediately. Bitcoin does not run on one company’s servers, Bitcoin runs on a distributed network of nodes spread across the world, which is exactly why it is hard to censor, shut down, or control, plus the mining system on top of it to protect it with energy. When someone frames Bitcoin like a centralized system, they are not critiquing Bitcoin as it is. They are critiquing a version of Bitcoin that exists only in their own confusion.

"Where are the servers of Bitcoin located?” - Prof Jiang That single question from Jiang shows the misunderstanding immediately. Bitcoin does not run on one company’s servers, Bitcoin runs on a distributed network of nodes spread across the world, which is exactly why it is hard to censor, shut down, or control, plus the mining system on top of it to protect it with energy. When someone frames Bitcoin like a centralized system, they are not critiquing Bitcoin as it is. They are critiquing a version of Bitcoin that exists only in their own confusion.

MDB

579,648 次观看 • 4 个月前

"Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in a generation and we've helped investors make billions with it. But it's pretty large now – a couple trillion. Solana is only 5% of the market cap of Bitcoin. We think it has more potential asymmetry, more possible upside. "It's currently our largest position – we have $1.1bn of Solana. We're helping our investors and the public markets get access to what we think is the most attractive asset right now." – Dan Morehead on Bloomberg Crypto Jimmy $HSDT

"Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in a generation and we've helped investors make billions with it. But it's pretty large now – a couple trillion. Solana is only 5% of the market cap of Bitcoin. We think it has more potential asymmetry, more possible upside. "It's currently our largest position – we have $1.1bn of Solana. We're helping our investors and the public markets get access to what we think is the most attractive asset right now." – Dan Morehead on Bloomberg Crypto Jimmy $HSDT

Pantera Capital

70,306 次观看 • 11 个月前