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Episode 69: Volatility! Bitcoin is NOT Volatile in Log-Log Space: It's remarkably stable! It's a quasi-exponential asset. Most people are focused on "risk" Will fail to embrace it Monte Carlo Simulation Watch on my YouTube along with 59 other Bitcoin only videos! And Subscribe!

26,823 次观看 • 2 年前 •via X (Twitter)

10 条评论

Thomas Young 的头像
Thomas Young2 年前

Fred/Giovanni - the sinusoidal waves on the Log-Log space has had peaks slightly above 2 STD's and on 1 STD to the downside. My sense is that these sinusoidal waves are dampening through time and in log-log space, we should expect to see wave of diminishing differentials from the predicted price. Do you agree? @Giovann35084111

Fred Krueger 的头像
Fred Krueger2 年前

question is how much.

JM S 的头像
JM S2 年前

have no idea what you are talking about, but I listen and try to learn a bit... just here for the hopium

Bitcoin4all ⚡️ 的头像
Bitcoin4all ⚡️2 年前

Thanks for your insightful content!

exitstrat 的头像
exitstrat2 年前

Could you not sell when the price is 2 standard deviations above, knowing that it will mean revert and indeed will go 1 std deviation below? Even with 20% long-term capital gains, seems you'd come out significantly ahead--agree?/disagree?

Ro 的头像
Ro2 年前

A bitcoin will be like having a 1,000,000$ watch in the not distant future. A thing of marvel

21HeartsAfire 的头像
21HeartsAfire2 年前

Very much appreciate your level-headedness, Fred 🤝

Xan Nick 的头像
Xan Nick2 年前

You should have Giovanni an @nntaleb on to debate Bitcoin volatility with you moderating.

shaquille o'atmeal 的头像
shaquille o'atmeal2 年前

Very interesting

Jeff Moreau 的头像
Jeff Moreau2 年前

Hey Fred! Would be great to hear you analysis on how long grayscale can continue their sell off

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Gareth Jenkinson

19,172 次观看 • 5 个月前

“I'm not a huge hater of the institutions. I wasn't a huge hater of altcoins. These institutional products are just kind of altcoins. People can go make their money. Go do your thing. But it's not Bitcoin. An ETF is not Bitcoin. With these centralized projects, you're not getting the core values of Bitcoin, the control, the censorship resistance, the privacy. You're putting it in a centralized wrapper, and if you put Bitcoin in a centralized wrapper, you lose everything that's good about it. It's not Bitcoin. It's just an affinity marketing thing. It's “Hey, you like Bitcoin, go buy my other project." Just like, "Hey you like bitcoin? Go buy my altcoin." It's not the same thing, and I think in many ways it's a step backwards. I don't hate these people, but they certainly shouldn't be celebrated. It's not forwarding our industry if we do treasury strategies, if we do ETFs, we cheer for BlackRock and Cantor. That's a step backwards. It's not something to be cheerful for. It's not a victory, in my opinion. A victory is having more people have direct ownership of real Bitcoin. We now have millions of people who've been onboarded into this fake paper thing that's a claim on a claim on a claim of something that has Bitcoin in the words, but it's not actually Bitcoin. They are never actually holding a wallet like many of us did back in 2012 where somebody sent us that first dollar and you say, "Wow, this is cool. I didn't need to give my ID and I'm able to control and hold this sound money for the first time." You now have a whole generation of millions of people that don't have that. They have some junk fiat product sitting like sludge on their centralized brokerage account at the centralized clearing firm, traded on a centralized exchange, with a centralized transfer agent, and a centralized custodian, and they have to trust six levels of people on a claim for something that has the word ‘Bitcoin’ in it. It's not a victory. It's not a step forward. I don't think it's something that should be celebrated at all.”

Bruce Fenton

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