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ERIC NUTTAL: DAY 55 OIL CRISIS EXPLODES - 600 MILLION BARRELS GONE WHILE STOCKS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS Day 55 of the US-Iranian war and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The world has lost roughly 600 million barrels of oil supply at a staggering 12 to 13 million barrels...

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CHINA FORFEITS 450 MILLION BARRELS IN ONE MONTH: WHY OIL PRICES ARE CRASHING DESPITE RECORD INVENTORY DRAWS Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, revealed the single biggest reason oil prices have collapsed despite record-low inventories. China quietly slashed its oil imports by 4.9 million barrels per day in June alone, forfeiting nearly 450 million barrels and draining its own hidden stocks. This massive move has temporarily masked the true tightness in the physical market and created one of the largest disconnects between fundamentals and price in decades. The result is oil trading in the high 60s while the real balance sheet screams much higher. THE INVENTORY REALITY CHECK ➡️ Global oil inventories are at the lowest levels ever seen for this time of year. ➡️ We have moved from a 177 million barrel surplus before the war to a 141 million barrel deficit relative to the five-year average. ➡️ Total inventory draws since the conflict began reach 430 million barrels, creating a 508 million barrel swing compared to last year. ➡️ US commercial oil inventories now sit at their lowest level since at least 2016. THE PRODUCT SHORTAGE SIGNAL ➡️ Gasoline and distillate stocks show clear shortages in key regions. ➡️ Refinery crack spreads for gasoline and diesel have hit all-time highs, up 182 percent year to date. ➡️ These extreme margins prove strong underlying product demand that contradicts the weak price action. THE STRATEGIC RESERVE FLOOR ➡️ US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 325 million barrels. ➡️ That is the lowest level since June of 1983. ➡️ Advisers close to the issue see 300 million barrels as a practical floor the market cannot breach without serious consequences. THE CHINA STOCKPILE DRAIN ➡️ China cut oil imports by a staggering 4.9 million barrels per day in June. ➡️ They have forfeited nearly 450 million barrels of imports in a single month, drawing down invisible domestic stocks. ➡️ Yet every mobility indicator from flights to road traffic shows demand remains very strong. ➡️ This buying behavior is unsustainable and the return of Chinese demand will expose the real tightness. THE TEMPORARY SUPPLY SURGE ➡️ Post-truce tanker traffic out of the Strait has surged to about 10 ships per day. ➡️ Roughly 140 million barrels of previously sanctioned Iranian oil are now accessible to the market. ➡️ Still, 9.4 million barrels per day of regional production remains shut in across the Middle East. ➡️ The market is absorbing a short-term flood that analysts expect will fade within one to two months. THE FINANCIAL MARKET BLIND SPOT ➡️ Speculative net length in oil has collapsed back to pre-war levels. ➡️ The paper market is pricing oil as if the anticipated glut from before the conflict is still here. ➡️ Physical fundamentals point to an implied fair value of 130 to 140 dollars per barrel. THE ADMINISTRATION RESPONSE ➡️ Vice President JD Vance stated the goal is to refill the world's oil economy and restock supplies. "What the president has told us to do is to use this to sort of refill the world's oil economy to refill some stocks and then see where the hand is." ➡️ The timing of the truce announcement right before the market open showed clear concern over energy price impacts ahead of the midterms. THE BOTTOM LINE The oil market is far tighter than current prices suggest because China temporarily drained its stocks and a post-truce supply surge is hitting all at once. Once those barrels are absorbed and China returns as a buyer, the real shortage will become impossible to ignore. Energy stocks are already discounting around 60 dollar oil while the marginal cost of new supply sits near 70 dollars. The rebound in oil prices is closer than the market thinks. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilShortage #ChinaOil #InventoryCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #MarketRebound #GeopoliticalOil
1:43

CHINA FORFEITS 450 MILLION BARRELS IN ONE MONTH: WHY OIL PRICES ARE CRASHING DESPITE RECORD INVENTORY DRAWS Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, revealed the single biggest reason oil prices have collapsed despite record-low inventories. China quietly slashed its oil imports by 4.9 million barrels per day in June alone, forfeiting nearly 450 million barrels and draining its own hidden stocks. This massive move has temporarily masked the true tightness in the physical market and created one of the largest disconnects between fundamentals and price in decades. The result is oil trading in the high 60s while the real balance sheet screams much higher. THE INVENTORY REALITY CHECK ➡️ Global oil inventories are at the lowest levels ever seen for this time of year. ➡️ We have moved from a 177 million barrel surplus before the war to a 141 million barrel deficit relative to the five-year average. ➡️ Total inventory draws since the conflict began reach 430 million barrels, creating a 508 million barrel swing compared to last year. ➡️ US commercial oil inventories now sit at their lowest level since at least 2016. THE PRODUCT SHORTAGE SIGNAL ➡️ Gasoline and distillate stocks show clear shortages in key regions. ➡️ Refinery crack spreads for gasoline and diesel have hit all-time highs, up 182 percent year to date. ➡️ These extreme margins prove strong underlying product demand that contradicts the weak price action. THE STRATEGIC RESERVE FLOOR ➡️ US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 325 million barrels. ➡️ That is the lowest level since June of 1983. ➡️ Advisers close to the issue see 300 million barrels as a practical floor the market cannot breach without serious consequences. THE CHINA STOCKPILE DRAIN ➡️ China cut oil imports by a staggering 4.9 million barrels per day in June. ➡️ They have forfeited nearly 450 million barrels of imports in a single month, drawing down invisible domestic stocks. ➡️ Yet every mobility indicator from flights to road traffic shows demand remains very strong. ➡️ This buying behavior is unsustainable and the return of Chinese demand will expose the real tightness. THE TEMPORARY SUPPLY SURGE ➡️ Post-truce tanker traffic out of the Strait has surged to about 10 ships per day. ➡️ Roughly 140 million barrels of previously sanctioned Iranian oil are now accessible to the market. ➡️ Still, 9.4 million barrels per day of regional production remains shut in across the Middle East. ➡️ The market is absorbing a short-term flood that analysts expect will fade within one to two months. THE FINANCIAL MARKET BLIND SPOT ➡️ Speculative net length in oil has collapsed back to pre-war levels. ➡️ The paper market is pricing oil as if the anticipated glut from before the conflict is still here. ➡️ Physical fundamentals point to an implied fair value of 130 to 140 dollars per barrel. THE ADMINISTRATION RESPONSE ➡️ Vice President JD Vance stated the goal is to refill the world's oil economy and restock supplies. "What the president has told us to do is to use this to sort of refill the world's oil economy to refill some stocks and then see where the hand is." ➡️ The timing of the truce announcement right before the market open showed clear concern over energy price impacts ahead of the midterms. THE BOTTOM LINE The oil market is far tighter than current prices suggest because China temporarily drained its stocks and a post-truce supply surge is hitting all at once. Once those barrels are absorbed and China returns as a buyer, the real shortage will become impossible to ignore. Energy stocks are already discounting around 60 dollar oil while the marginal cost of new supply sits near 70 dollars. The rebound in oil prices is closer than the market thinks. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilShortage #ChinaOil #InventoryCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #MarketRebound #GeopoliticalOil

Mark

81,081 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

BIGGEST ENERGY CRISIS IN HISTORY: $150 OIL IN WEEKS AS INVENTORIES PLUNGE TO RECORD LOWS Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, delivered a sobering message in his Bloomberg TV interview. We are living through the biggest energy crisis anyone alive has ever seen — yet most of the world still has no idea what is coming. With Middle East production slashed by 14 million barrels per day, the safety buffer is gone and inventories are about to hit all-time lows. THE UNPRECEDENTED SHORTAGE ➡️ Middle Eastern production is down a staggering 14 million barrels per day. ➡️ Already lost 650 million barrels of production — and that climbs to 1.5 billion even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow. ➡️ The last ships that left before closure have now unloaded, leaving zero safety buffer. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ US diesel stocks fell 4% in a single week while gasoline dropped 3% outside driving season. ➡️ Global oil inventories are heading straight to all-time record lows by the end of May. ➡️ Complacency rules because the human mind simply cannot grasp something this enormous. THE INEVITABLE PRICE SPIKE ➡️ Demand must be rationed more severely than during COVID — and price is the only way to do it. ➡️ Expect oil well in excess of $150 per barrel in the coming days or weeks. ➡️ Physical markets are already trading at these brutal levels. THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK ➡️ Nuttall went 100% oil weighted back in January — his fund is already up 44%. ➡️ Once the Strait reopens he still sees an $80 floor with demand boosted 40% from restocking depleted inventories and SPRs. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall has spent 25 years in this market and calls this the biggest disruption of his lifetime. The world is sleepwalking into a supply shock that will force prices higher faster than anyone expects. This is the calm before the storm hits hard. #EnergyCrisis #150Oil #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #RecordLowInventories #OilPrices #EnergyShock
5:36

BIGGEST ENERGY CRISIS IN HISTORY: $150 OIL IN WEEKS AS INVENTORIES PLUNGE TO RECORD LOWS Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, delivered a sobering message in his Bloomberg TV interview. We are living through the biggest energy crisis anyone alive has ever seen — yet most of the world still has no idea what is coming. With Middle East production slashed by 14 million barrels per day, the safety buffer is gone and inventories are about to hit all-time lows. THE UNPRECEDENTED SHORTAGE ➡️ Middle Eastern production is down a staggering 14 million barrels per day. ➡️ Already lost 650 million barrels of production — and that climbs to 1.5 billion even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow. ➡️ The last ships that left before closure have now unloaded, leaving zero safety buffer. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ US diesel stocks fell 4% in a single week while gasoline dropped 3% outside driving season. ➡️ Global oil inventories are heading straight to all-time record lows by the end of May. ➡️ Complacency rules because the human mind simply cannot grasp something this enormous. THE INEVITABLE PRICE SPIKE ➡️ Demand must be rationed more severely than during COVID — and price is the only way to do it. ➡️ Expect oil well in excess of $150 per barrel in the coming days or weeks. ➡️ Physical markets are already trading at these brutal levels. THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK ➡️ Nuttall went 100% oil weighted back in January — his fund is already up 44%. ➡️ Once the Strait reopens he still sees an $80 floor with demand boosted 40% from restocking depleted inventories and SPRs. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall has spent 25 years in this market and calls this the biggest disruption of his lifetime. The world is sleepwalking into a supply shock that will force prices higher faster than anyone expects. This is the calm before the storm hits hard. #EnergyCrisis #150Oil #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #RecordLowInventories #OilPrices #EnergyShock

Mark

193,179 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young
1:27

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young

Mark

18,685 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

OIL AT $100 BUT $177 SPIKE INCOMING: NUTTALL'S HISTORIC WARNING Oil expert Eric Nuttall just delivered a sobering update. Middle East production has collapsed by 14 million barrels per day and global inventories are drawing at an eye-watering pace. Yet the market remains shockingly apathetic even as physical shortages are already appearing in Africa, Europe, and Australia. THE SUPPLY SHOCK OF A LIFETIME ➡️ Middle Eastern output is down 14 million barrels per day with OPEC exports slashed by 11 to 12 million. ➡️ That means 360 million barrels forfeited every single month—production gone forever. ➡️ The biggest SPR release in history is only making the imbalance worse. THE INVENTORY NIGHTMARE ➡️ Global oil inventories are racing toward all-time lows. ➡️ We have already lost 700 million barrels. ➡️ Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow the world would still lose 1.5 billion barrels total. ➡️ The IRGC is simply waiting Trump out while the problem worsens exponentially. THE PHYSICAL SHORTAGES BEGIN ➡️ Africa is seeing gas station owners murdered because pumps have run dry. ➡️ London Heathrow is facing jet fuel crisis after 60-plus days of disrupted imports. ➡️ Australia is scrambling for diesel following a refinery fire and China cutting exports. THE LIMITED FIXES ➡️ US shale production peaked in November last year—the best days are behind us. ➡️ UAE exiting OPEC adds at most 500 to 800 thousand barrels per day of hidden capacity after accounting for prior cheating. ➡️ Non-OPEC production is peaking this year. THE PRICE DISCOVERY AHEAD ➡️ Only way to balance this historic mismatch is massive demand destruction equivalent to COVID levels. ➡️ Historical math shows oil consuming 5.5 percent of global GDP forces that outcome. ➡️ That number lands at $177 per barrel. ➡️ New realistic floor is now $80 to $100 plus a political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall feels like the researcher in Wuhan in January 2020—he sees exactly what is coming while the market refuses to look. Complacency is ending in days or weeks as the gravity of this imbalance finally breaks through. This is the sound of the biggest energy supply crunch in history finally waking everyone up. HT: YouTube Trevor Rose #OilCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyShortage #$177Oil #NuttallWarning #SupplyCrunch #OilMarket
0:36

OIL AT $100 BUT $177 SPIKE INCOMING: NUTTALL'S HISTORIC WARNING Oil expert Eric Nuttall just delivered a sobering update. Middle East production has collapsed by 14 million barrels per day and global inventories are drawing at an eye-watering pace. Yet the market remains shockingly apathetic even as physical shortages are already appearing in Africa, Europe, and Australia. THE SUPPLY SHOCK OF A LIFETIME ➡️ Middle Eastern output is down 14 million barrels per day with OPEC exports slashed by 11 to 12 million. ➡️ That means 360 million barrels forfeited every single month—production gone forever. ➡️ The biggest SPR release in history is only making the imbalance worse. THE INVENTORY NIGHTMARE ➡️ Global oil inventories are racing toward all-time lows. ➡️ We have already lost 700 million barrels. ➡️ Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow the world would still lose 1.5 billion barrels total. ➡️ The IRGC is simply waiting Trump out while the problem worsens exponentially. THE PHYSICAL SHORTAGES BEGIN ➡️ Africa is seeing gas station owners murdered because pumps have run dry. ➡️ London Heathrow is facing jet fuel crisis after 60-plus days of disrupted imports. ➡️ Australia is scrambling for diesel following a refinery fire and China cutting exports. THE LIMITED FIXES ➡️ US shale production peaked in November last year—the best days are behind us. ➡️ UAE exiting OPEC adds at most 500 to 800 thousand barrels per day of hidden capacity after accounting for prior cheating. ➡️ Non-OPEC production is peaking this year. THE PRICE DISCOVERY AHEAD ➡️ Only way to balance this historic mismatch is massive demand destruction equivalent to COVID levels. ➡️ Historical math shows oil consuming 5.5 percent of global GDP forces that outcome. ➡️ That number lands at $177 per barrel. ➡️ New realistic floor is now $80 to $100 plus a political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall feels like the researcher in Wuhan in January 2020—he sees exactly what is coming while the market refuses to look. Complacency is ending in days or weeks as the gravity of this imbalance finally breaks through. This is the sound of the biggest energy supply crunch in history finally waking everyone up. HT: YouTube Trevor Rose #OilCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyShortage #$177Oil #NuttallWarning #SupplyCrunch #OilMarket

Mark

36,647 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash
0:49

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash

Mark

73,368 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

VIOLENT PRICE SIGNAL AHEAD: WHY $150 OIL IS NOW THE ONLY PATH TO BALANCE Energy strategist Eric Nuttall of ninepoint Energy Strategies just delivered his long-awaited weekly update. Instead of relief, the only measurable change has been the relentless drain of nearly 200 million barrels of forfeited production while the world clings to hope. The data from Kepler and the warnings from Exxon and Chevron reveal a structural crisis that tweets cannot fix. THE STRAIT REALITY CHECK ➡️ Just 23 ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz each day compared to the normal baseline of 40 to 45. ➡️ Daily claims of 35 to 40 ships passing were proven false when actual tracking data showed only two tankers making the transit. ➡️ Leading shipping companies like Maersk have abandoned the route completely because the risk outweighs any reward. THE INVENTORY FREEFALL ➡️ Global inventories visible and invisible are now falling at a rate of 6 to 8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Almost 200 million barrels have already been sucked out of the system in just the past two weeks. ➡️ The cumulative forfeited production has already exceeded one billion barrels and is tracking toward two billion under even optimistic scenarios. THE EXPERT ALARM ➡️ Exxon and Chevron have now corroborated the numbers and stated the market is heading into the danger zone within the next few weeks. ➡️ Inventories are approaching the point where refineries hit tank bottoms and can no longer operate without cutting demand. ➡️ Their models show that oil prices will have to rise to between 150 and 160 dollars to achieve the required demand destruction. THE PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ Middle East production has been curtailed by 13 to 14 million barrels per day because storage tanks are full and crude cannot exit. ➡️ Barnacle buildup on vessels that have sat idle in warm water will add 80 to 90 percent to fuel costs and further delay any recovery. ➡️ "The IRGC has figured out that having control of the strait is more powerful than actual possession of a nuclear bomb" — and there is no sign they plan to relinquish it. THE COVID INVERSION ➡️ The current pace of inventory depletion is the fastest in history and stands as the direct opposite of the massive build that started in February 2020. ➡️ All previous safety buffers including the largest SPR releases in history have now been exhausted or are being drawn down in real time. ➡️ The market remains trapped in apathy and continues to price energy equities for oil in the high 60s to low 70s even as physical barrels trade near 95. THE LONG-TERM BULL CASE ➡️ After the spike forces the necessary adjustment, the day after will feature years of incremental demand just to rebuild inventories and replace lost production from formation damage. ➡️ Even a sudden resolution would still leave lasting bullish effects because much of the generalist capital has stayed on the sidelines waiting for certainty that may never arrive. ➡️ Energy equities represent one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities precisely because the structural shortage is already in motion. THE BOTTOM LINE The market is betting that hope and tweets will somehow refill the tanks before they run dry. When tank bottoms arrive the price adjustment will be swift, brutal, and completely necessary to balance a system that has run out of buffers. #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #InventoryCrisis #EnergyInvesting #OilPriceSpike #BullishEnergy #TankBottoms
1:15

VIOLENT PRICE SIGNAL AHEAD: WHY $150 OIL IS NOW THE ONLY PATH TO BALANCE Energy strategist Eric Nuttall of ninepoint Energy Strategies just delivered his long-awaited weekly update. Instead of relief, the only measurable change has been the relentless drain of nearly 200 million barrels of forfeited production while the world clings to hope. The data from Kepler and the warnings from Exxon and Chevron reveal a structural crisis that tweets cannot fix. THE STRAIT REALITY CHECK ➡️ Just 23 ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz each day compared to the normal baseline of 40 to 45. ➡️ Daily claims of 35 to 40 ships passing were proven false when actual tracking data showed only two tankers making the transit. ➡️ Leading shipping companies like Maersk have abandoned the route completely because the risk outweighs any reward. THE INVENTORY FREEFALL ➡️ Global inventories visible and invisible are now falling at a rate of 6 to 8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Almost 200 million barrels have already been sucked out of the system in just the past two weeks. ➡️ The cumulative forfeited production has already exceeded one billion barrels and is tracking toward two billion under even optimistic scenarios. THE EXPERT ALARM ➡️ Exxon and Chevron have now corroborated the numbers and stated the market is heading into the danger zone within the next few weeks. ➡️ Inventories are approaching the point where refineries hit tank bottoms and can no longer operate without cutting demand. ➡️ Their models show that oil prices will have to rise to between 150 and 160 dollars to achieve the required demand destruction. THE PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ Middle East production has been curtailed by 13 to 14 million barrels per day because storage tanks are full and crude cannot exit. ➡️ Barnacle buildup on vessels that have sat idle in warm water will add 80 to 90 percent to fuel costs and further delay any recovery. ➡️ "The IRGC has figured out that having control of the strait is more powerful than actual possession of a nuclear bomb" — and there is no sign they plan to relinquish it. THE COVID INVERSION ➡️ The current pace of inventory depletion is the fastest in history and stands as the direct opposite of the massive build that started in February 2020. ➡️ All previous safety buffers including the largest SPR releases in history have now been exhausted or are being drawn down in real time. ➡️ The market remains trapped in apathy and continues to price energy equities for oil in the high 60s to low 70s even as physical barrels trade near 95. THE LONG-TERM BULL CASE ➡️ After the spike forces the necessary adjustment, the day after will feature years of incremental demand just to rebuild inventories and replace lost production from formation damage. ➡️ Even a sudden resolution would still leave lasting bullish effects because much of the generalist capital has stayed on the sidelines waiting for certainty that may never arrive. ➡️ Energy equities represent one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities precisely because the structural shortage is already in motion. THE BOTTOM LINE The market is betting that hope and tweets will somehow refill the tanks before they run dry. When tank bottoms arrive the price adjustment will be swift, brutal, and completely necessary to balance a system that has run out of buffers. #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #InventoryCrisis #EnergyInvesting #OilPriceSpike #BullishEnergy #TankBottoms

Mark

26,328 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

7% CRASH FROM "95% DONE" DEAL THAT NEVER HAPPENED - MARKET MANIPULATION AT PEAK: WHY OIL SHOULD BE $130 Energy markets expert Ross Hendrix of Porter and Co. just laid bare the most blatant case of oil market manipulation in years. Over one weekend the administration blasted out headlines claiming a deal was "95% done" with Iran set to open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices immediately plunged 7% on Monday. Yet on that same Monday ships were being attacked in the Persian Gulf and Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon with zero increase in actual tanker traffic through the strait. THE WEEKEND HEADLINE SCAM ➡️ Administration officials told markets the deal was 95% complete and Iran would surrender its uranium and reopen the strait. ➡️ Oil crashed 7% the next trading day on nothing but those tweets and press releases. ➡️ The very same day ships were being blown up in the Persian Gulf and new attacks hit Lebanon. ➡️ There was still no measurable pickup in traffic through the strait that supposedly just reopened. THE REALITY THEY ARE HIDING ➡️ A minimum of 10 million barrels per day remain blocked from the Strait of Hormuz entering month four. ➡️ Global inventories have already lost over one billion barrels with no end in sight. ➡️ The market is trading off social media posts instead of physical barrels and actual tanker data. THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION THEY ARE BLOCKING ➡️ To balance this market oil needs to rise high enough to destroy 10 million barrels of daily demand. ➡️ Every jawboning headline keeps prices artificially low and prevents that destruction from happening. ➡️ The slack in the system is being chewed through day by day with nothing to replace it. THE VIOLENT RECKONING AHEAD ➡️ Ross Hendrix warns we should already be at $120 to $130 if the market were pricing reality. ➡️ Instead we are being set up for one of the most horrific price spikes in commodity history. ➡️ The longer they suppress the truth the more violent the snap higher will be when the final buffer disappears. THE BOTTOM LINE They are not managing a crisis. They are managing the narrative while the physical oil market burns. When the last barrel of slack is gone the price will not politely rise. It will explode. HT: YouTube Michael Farris (Coffee and a Mike) Ross Hendricks #OilManipulation #HormuzBlockade #FakePeaceDeals #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #ViolentReckoning #MarketTruth
1:22

7% CRASH FROM "95% DONE" DEAL THAT NEVER HAPPENED - MARKET MANIPULATION AT PEAK: WHY OIL SHOULD BE $130 Energy markets expert Ross Hendrix of Porter and Co. just laid bare the most blatant case of oil market manipulation in years. Over one weekend the administration blasted out headlines claiming a deal was "95% done" with Iran set to open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices immediately plunged 7% on Monday. Yet on that same Monday ships were being attacked in the Persian Gulf and Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon with zero increase in actual tanker traffic through the strait. THE WEEKEND HEADLINE SCAM ➡️ Administration officials told markets the deal was 95% complete and Iran would surrender its uranium and reopen the strait. ➡️ Oil crashed 7% the next trading day on nothing but those tweets and press releases. ➡️ The very same day ships were being blown up in the Persian Gulf and new attacks hit Lebanon. ➡️ There was still no measurable pickup in traffic through the strait that supposedly just reopened. THE REALITY THEY ARE HIDING ➡️ A minimum of 10 million barrels per day remain blocked from the Strait of Hormuz entering month four. ➡️ Global inventories have already lost over one billion barrels with no end in sight. ➡️ The market is trading off social media posts instead of physical barrels and actual tanker data. THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION THEY ARE BLOCKING ➡️ To balance this market oil needs to rise high enough to destroy 10 million barrels of daily demand. ➡️ Every jawboning headline keeps prices artificially low and prevents that destruction from happening. ➡️ The slack in the system is being chewed through day by day with nothing to replace it. THE VIOLENT RECKONING AHEAD ➡️ Ross Hendrix warns we should already be at $120 to $130 if the market were pricing reality. ➡️ Instead we are being set up for one of the most horrific price spikes in commodity history. ➡️ The longer they suppress the truth the more violent the snap higher will be when the final buffer disappears. THE BOTTOM LINE They are not managing a crisis. They are managing the narrative while the physical oil market burns. When the last barrel of slack is gone the price will not politely rise. It will explode. HT: YouTube Michael Farris (Coffee and a Mike) Ross Hendricks #OilManipulation #HormuzBlockade #FakePeaceDeals #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #ViolentReckoning #MarketTruth

Mark

86,023 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

ERIC NUTTAL: PEACE DEAL OR NOT - WHY OIL IS ABOUT TO SPIKE SHARPLY HIGHER The renowned oil market analyst Eric Nuttall emphasises that even if Donald Trump and Iran reach the best possible peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is immediately reopened in full, oil prices will not plummet again. A major short-term price spike is now imminent in the coming days and weeks as depleted inventories trigger real shortages. The market still believes everything snaps back to normal overnight. It will not. THE SHOCKING SUPPLY LOSS ➡️ Middle East producers have already shut in a staggering 13 million barrels per day as storage fills with trapped ships. ➡️ That equals roughly 400 million barrels lost every single month — far beyond any pre-crisis glut the market priced in. THE SHORT-TERM INVENTORY CRUNCH ➡️ Floating storage and onshore safety cushions are now exhausted after weeks of disruption. ➡️ Final ships have reached destinations and real shortages are just starting to hit hard — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline supplies are tightening rapidly. ➡️ Governments are already discussing rationing while airlines warn of billion-dollar hits from higher fuel costs. THE COVID PARALLEL ➡️ COVID delivered the biggest demand shock in history through lockdowns and halted travel. ➡️ Today we are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history with 13 million barrels per day offline. ➡️ To rebalance the market we need roughly 8 million barrels per day of demand destruction after SPR releases. ➡️ This can only come from government rationing like we saw in COVID — or significantly higher oil prices. THE 90-DAY LAG TRAP ➡️ 147 tankers are trapped and must exit, sail 25-30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume. ➡️ This means over a billion barrels of production will still be forsaken even with an immediate reopening. THE NEW STRUCTURAL FLOOR ➡️ Global inventories are racing toward historic lows by late May and beyond. ➡️ Over 75 facilities damaged plus reservoir damage will take months to years to repair. ➡️ Add SPR restocking demand, customer diversification, and a permanent $10-20 political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE The day after any peace deal will not look like the old normal. Massive short-term supply shortfalls and depleted buffers guarantee higher — not lower — oil prices ahead. A painful price spike is coming sooner than the market expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilSpike #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #HigherForLonger #OilBullMarket #InventoryCrunch
1:54

ERIC NUTTAL: PEACE DEAL OR NOT - WHY OIL IS ABOUT TO SPIKE SHARPLY HIGHER The renowned oil market analyst Eric Nuttall emphasises that even if Donald Trump and Iran reach the best possible peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is immediately reopened in full, oil prices will not plummet again. A major short-term price spike is now imminent in the coming days and weeks as depleted inventories trigger real shortages. The market still believes everything snaps back to normal overnight. It will not. THE SHOCKING SUPPLY LOSS ➡️ Middle East producers have already shut in a staggering 13 million barrels per day as storage fills with trapped ships. ➡️ That equals roughly 400 million barrels lost every single month — far beyond any pre-crisis glut the market priced in. THE SHORT-TERM INVENTORY CRUNCH ➡️ Floating storage and onshore safety cushions are now exhausted after weeks of disruption. ➡️ Final ships have reached destinations and real shortages are just starting to hit hard — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline supplies are tightening rapidly. ➡️ Governments are already discussing rationing while airlines warn of billion-dollar hits from higher fuel costs. THE COVID PARALLEL ➡️ COVID delivered the biggest demand shock in history through lockdowns and halted travel. ➡️ Today we are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history with 13 million barrels per day offline. ➡️ To rebalance the market we need roughly 8 million barrels per day of demand destruction after SPR releases. ➡️ This can only come from government rationing like we saw in COVID — or significantly higher oil prices. THE 90-DAY LAG TRAP ➡️ 147 tankers are trapped and must exit, sail 25-30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume. ➡️ This means over a billion barrels of production will still be forsaken even with an immediate reopening. THE NEW STRUCTURAL FLOOR ➡️ Global inventories are racing toward historic lows by late May and beyond. ➡️ Over 75 facilities damaged plus reservoir damage will take months to years to repair. ➡️ Add SPR restocking demand, customer diversification, and a permanent $10-20 political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE The day after any peace deal will not look like the old normal. Massive short-term supply shortfalls and depleted buffers guarantee higher — not lower — oil prices ahead. A painful price spike is coming sooner than the market expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilSpike #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #HigherForLonger #OilBullMarket #InventoryCrunch

Mark

67,257 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply
0:44

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply

Mark

20,090 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

THE REAL OIL PRICE IS ALREADY $140 — PAPER MARKET ABOUT TO BREAK David McAlvany, CEO of the McAlvany Financial Group, just exposed the biggest disconnect in the oil market right now. Futures look calm. Physical reality is already screaming. The catch-up is coming and most traders are still asleep. THE PHYSICAL REALITY CHECK ➡️ Futures barely moved today. ➡️ The actual delivered barrel is already trading between $120 and $140. ➡️ That gap cannot last. Paper prices must rise toward physical reality. THE CHOKEPOINT LOCKDOWN ➡️ Crude tanker transits through Bab al-Mandab have collapsed from 140 a day to single digits. ➡️ Some days the number hits zero. ➡️ Attacks have effectively shut the Red Sea route while Hormuz remains under sustained pressure. ➡️ Iran has zero intention of allowing these choke points to normalize. THE US PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ America is still producing 13.8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Shale wells decline 60 to 70 percent within one to two years without continuous drilling. ➡️ Rig counts are not rising and the majors refuse to fund major new programs without sustained high prices. ➡️ The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at just 305 million barrels — the lowest level since 1983 and nearly untouchable. THE CHINA DEMAND WAVE ➡️ Chinese demand has been muted by full reserves and the EV push. ➡️ That protection ends in the second half of the year. ➡️ Rising Chinese buying colliding with constrained Middle East supply and rolling U.S. shale creates the setup for a much larger move higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The market has priced in peace so many times that the real disruption is still invisible on the futures curve. Physical oil is already $120 to $140. Futures will be forced to catch up. This is the bull case the headlines keep trying to kill. #OilBullCase #PhysicalOil #ChokepointsClosed #ShaleDecline #ChinaDemand #EnergyReality #HardAssets HT: YouTube Schwab Network
0:44

THE REAL OIL PRICE IS ALREADY $140 — PAPER MARKET ABOUT TO BREAK David McAlvany, CEO of the McAlvany Financial Group, just exposed the biggest disconnect in the oil market right now. Futures look calm. Physical reality is already screaming. The catch-up is coming and most traders are still asleep. THE PHYSICAL REALITY CHECK ➡️ Futures barely moved today. ➡️ The actual delivered barrel is already trading between $120 and $140. ➡️ That gap cannot last. Paper prices must rise toward physical reality. THE CHOKEPOINT LOCKDOWN ➡️ Crude tanker transits through Bab al-Mandab have collapsed from 140 a day to single digits. ➡️ Some days the number hits zero. ➡️ Attacks have effectively shut the Red Sea route while Hormuz remains under sustained pressure. ➡️ Iran has zero intention of allowing these choke points to normalize. THE US PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ America is still producing 13.8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Shale wells decline 60 to 70 percent within one to two years without continuous drilling. ➡️ Rig counts are not rising and the majors refuse to fund major new programs without sustained high prices. ➡️ The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at just 305 million barrels — the lowest level since 1983 and nearly untouchable. THE CHINA DEMAND WAVE ➡️ Chinese demand has been muted by full reserves and the EV push. ➡️ That protection ends in the second half of the year. ➡️ Rising Chinese buying colliding with constrained Middle East supply and rolling U.S. shale creates the setup for a much larger move higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The market has priced in peace so many times that the real disruption is still invisible on the futures curve. Physical oil is already $120 to $140. Futures will be forced to catch up. This is the bull case the headlines keep trying to kill. #OilBullCase #PhysicalOil #ChokepointsClosed #ShaleDecline #ChinaDemand #EnergyReality #HardAssets HT: YouTube Schwab Network

Mark

53,830 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen

CITIGROUP'S MAX LAYTON WARNS: Q3 PINCH POINT COULD SEND OIL TO $180 Max Layton, Citigroup Inc.'s global head of commodities research, just broke down the real dynamics in today's oil market. While many expected physical barrels to surge far above futures amid Iran tensions, the opposite is happening right now. The physical market has converged down to paper prices — and that single fact changes everything about how traders should see the next few months. THE PHYSICAL MARKET REALITY ➡️ Physical barrel prices are not much higher than futures at all. ➡️ The physical market has converged down to paper markets despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed. ➡️ This echoes 2020 when physical oil went negative across the United States even as storage stayed open. THE GLOBAL BUFFER ➡️ The world built a massive 700-800 million barrel inventory cushion in the preceding 12 months — most of it in China. ➡️ We are now eating through those barrels aggressively but the physical impact is spread out over time. ➡️ Even if a deal lands today it would still take months to clear mines, ramp production, and fix logistics. THE Q3 PINCH POINT ➡️ Third quarter shapes up as the critical pinch point. ➡️ Inventories could tighten to levels consistent with $150-180 Brent and $200-plus product prices. ➡️ The price pull from physical is gradual but powerful once that buffer runs low. THE DEAL UNCERTAINTY ➡️ Prices swung wildly from $125 to $98 purely on shifting hopes of a US-Iran deal. ➡️ Predicting what the new Iranian leadership will do remains extremely difficult. ➡️ Max Layton believes the regime could survive years under blockade by printing money and prioritizing its supporters. THE BOTTOM LINE Max Layton sees the oil market far more realistically than most commodity strategists. Any clear sign the regime will quickly do a deal would force him to slash his price forecasts dramatically. The calm you see in physical prices today is just the calm before the storm. #OilMarket #MaxLayton #Citigroup #PhysicalOil #OilPrices #Q3Pinch #IranDeal
1:41

CITIGROUP'S MAX LAYTON WARNS: Q3 PINCH POINT COULD SEND OIL TO $180 Max Layton, Citigroup Inc.'s global head of commodities research, just broke down the real dynamics in today's oil market. While many expected physical barrels to surge far above futures amid Iran tensions, the opposite is happening right now. The physical market has converged down to paper prices — and that single fact changes everything about how traders should see the next few months. THE PHYSICAL MARKET REALITY ➡️ Physical barrel prices are not much higher than futures at all. ➡️ The physical market has converged down to paper markets despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed. ➡️ This echoes 2020 when physical oil went negative across the United States even as storage stayed open. THE GLOBAL BUFFER ➡️ The world built a massive 700-800 million barrel inventory cushion in the preceding 12 months — most of it in China. ➡️ We are now eating through those barrels aggressively but the physical impact is spread out over time. ➡️ Even if a deal lands today it would still take months to clear mines, ramp production, and fix logistics. THE Q3 PINCH POINT ➡️ Third quarter shapes up as the critical pinch point. ➡️ Inventories could tighten to levels consistent with $150-180 Brent and $200-plus product prices. ➡️ The price pull from physical is gradual but powerful once that buffer runs low. THE DEAL UNCERTAINTY ➡️ Prices swung wildly from $125 to $98 purely on shifting hopes of a US-Iran deal. ➡️ Predicting what the new Iranian leadership will do remains extremely difficult. ➡️ Max Layton believes the regime could survive years under blockade by printing money and prioritizing its supporters. THE BOTTOM LINE Max Layton sees the oil market far more realistically than most commodity strategists. Any clear sign the regime will quickly do a deal would force him to slash his price forecasts dramatically. The calm you see in physical prices today is just the calm before the storm. #OilMarket #MaxLayton #Citigroup #PhysicalOil #OilPrices #Q3Pinch #IranDeal

Mark

13,357 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

TRUMP CLAIMS VICTORY BUT DAN DICKER SEES THE REAL OIL SUPPLY CRISIS Nobody wants to hear anymore that oil prices will shoot up or go higher. The market dumped oil hard after the latest headlines from Washington. Yet the real question is how big is the risk that prices surge anyway when physical supplies finally run out. Dan Dicker has spent forty five years trading oil and he just pulled back the curtain on a supply picture far worse than the headlines suggest. THE SUPPLY DISASTER UNFOLDING ➡️ Six to eight million barrels of oil are not reaching the global marketplace every day. ➡️ This export disaster has been draining stockpiles for months with no end in sight. ➡️ The world has drawn down its global stockpile area of about half a trillion barrels of oil. ➡️ That drawdown is incredibly significant for what happens next in the marketplace. THE TRADER FEAR AND SHORT POSITION ➡️ Traders have been reluctant to pay up for oil that should already be much higher than one hundred ten or one hundred fifteen dollars. ➡️ They are now spectacularly short at seventy five to seventy six dollars a barrel. ➡️ This price sits at the upper end of the deadly boring range that existed for two years before the conflict. ➡️ Every time traders tried to buy the dip on fundamentals Trump announced another deal and prices collapsed overnight. THE PHYSICAL REALITY HITS HARD ➡️ The physical market will assert itself unless oil starts flowing seriously and rebuilds those drained stockpiles. ➡️ Prices will not rise gradually from seventy five to eighty five dollars. ➡️ A move from seventy five dollars to one hundred thirty five dollars in the space of a month is what Dan Dicker sees ahead. ➡️ Leaders at Chevron and Exxon have already warned that the stockpiles situation is a disaster. THE STRAIT AND THE HIGHER COST FLOOR ➡️ Trump's rhetoric says the straits are open and oil will gush out like never before. ➡️ The physical reality shows tankers are not moving freely yet. ➡️ Even if a sixty day arrangement holds the higher risk in the region will raise the cost of doing business. ➡️ Insurance and mariner pay will increase and that higher floor is not yet reflected in prices. THE BOTTOM LINE Dan Dicker sees a market positioned for relief that is about to collide with a physical supply shortage of historic scale. Traders who stayed short at these levels ignored the math that has been building for three months. The spike is coming unless the oil actually starts moving in volume and soon. #OilPrices #DanDicker #SupplyShortage #OilSpike #EnergyCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #TraderAlert
2:39

TRUMP CLAIMS VICTORY BUT DAN DICKER SEES THE REAL OIL SUPPLY CRISIS Nobody wants to hear anymore that oil prices will shoot up or go higher. The market dumped oil hard after the latest headlines from Washington. Yet the real question is how big is the risk that prices surge anyway when physical supplies finally run out. Dan Dicker has spent forty five years trading oil and he just pulled back the curtain on a supply picture far worse than the headlines suggest. THE SUPPLY DISASTER UNFOLDING ➡️ Six to eight million barrels of oil are not reaching the global marketplace every day. ➡️ This export disaster has been draining stockpiles for months with no end in sight. ➡️ The world has drawn down its global stockpile area of about half a trillion barrels of oil. ➡️ That drawdown is incredibly significant for what happens next in the marketplace. THE TRADER FEAR AND SHORT POSITION ➡️ Traders have been reluctant to pay up for oil that should already be much higher than one hundred ten or one hundred fifteen dollars. ➡️ They are now spectacularly short at seventy five to seventy six dollars a barrel. ➡️ This price sits at the upper end of the deadly boring range that existed for two years before the conflict. ➡️ Every time traders tried to buy the dip on fundamentals Trump announced another deal and prices collapsed overnight. THE PHYSICAL REALITY HITS HARD ➡️ The physical market will assert itself unless oil starts flowing seriously and rebuilds those drained stockpiles. ➡️ Prices will not rise gradually from seventy five to eighty five dollars. ➡️ A move from seventy five dollars to one hundred thirty five dollars in the space of a month is what Dan Dicker sees ahead. ➡️ Leaders at Chevron and Exxon have already warned that the stockpiles situation is a disaster. THE STRAIT AND THE HIGHER COST FLOOR ➡️ Trump's rhetoric says the straits are open and oil will gush out like never before. ➡️ The physical reality shows tankers are not moving freely yet. ➡️ Even if a sixty day arrangement holds the higher risk in the region will raise the cost of doing business. ➡️ Insurance and mariner pay will increase and that higher floor is not yet reflected in prices. THE BOTTOM LINE Dan Dicker sees a market positioned for relief that is about to collide with a physical supply shortage of historic scale. Traders who stayed short at these levels ignored the math that has been building for three months. The spike is coming unless the oil actually starts moving in volume and soon. #OilPrices #DanDicker #SupplyShortage #OilSpike #EnergyCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #TraderAlert

Mark

18,502 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

CHINA WEAPONIZES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: THE 1.4 BILLION BARREL DEMAND STRIKE SET TO CRUSH OIL PRICES Troy W. Eckard of Eckard Enterprises has spent 41 years inside the oil and gas industry. He now reveals how the Strait of Hormuz has become a Bermuda Triangle of daily uncertainty and how China is weaponizing that chaos from the demand side in a way never seen before. What he describes next explains why oil prices may behave so differently in the months ahead. THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists. ➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play. THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON ➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market. ➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction. ➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated. ➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range. THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE ➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects. ➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate. ➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career. THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY ➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home. ➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required. ➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now. THE BOTTOM LINE China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense. This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #ChinaOilWeapon #HormuzBermudaTriangle #IntentionalDemandDestruction #OilPriceManipulation #EnergyGeopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaReserves
1:58

CHINA WEAPONIZES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: THE 1.4 BILLION BARREL DEMAND STRIKE SET TO CRUSH OIL PRICES Troy W. Eckard of Eckard Enterprises has spent 41 years inside the oil and gas industry. He now reveals how the Strait of Hormuz has become a Bermuda Triangle of daily uncertainty and how China is weaponizing that chaos from the demand side in a way never seen before. What he describes next explains why oil prices may behave so differently in the months ahead. THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists. ➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play. THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON ➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market. ➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction. ➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated. ➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range. THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE ➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects. ➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate. ➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career. THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY ➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home. ➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required. ➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now. THE BOTTOM LINE China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense. This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #ChinaOilWeapon #HormuzBermudaTriangle #IntentionalDemandDestruction #OilPriceManipulation #EnergyGeopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaReserves

Mark

47,024 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

PEACE DEAL YESTERDAY? OIL STILL HEADED TO $150 Traders are convinced any peace deal in the Strait of Hormuz will crash oil prices overnight. Morgan Downey, the man who literally wrote the book on oil markets just destroyed that assumption. Even if a deal was signed yesterday the physical realities of global energy flows guarantee prices stay wrong and head much higher. **THE FLYWHEEL RESTART TRAP** ➡️ Tankers need one to two full months to resume normal transit and restart the global supply chain from the Middle East. ➡️ Shut-in wells across Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and others require slow complex engineering restarts that have never been attempted at this scale before. ➡️ Damaged LNG facilities in Qatar alone could take four to five years to return to full capacity because critical turbines are backlogged worldwide. **THE TEMPORARY BUFFERS HAVE EXPIRED** ➡️ Strategic petroleum reserve releases and Iranian floating storage have already been largely drawn down to mask the shortage. ➡️ Technology-driven inventory efficiencies over the past five years created a hidden one-time cushion of roughly one billion barrels but that advantage is now spent. ➡️ The world has consumed its safety margins and now sits on a fuse measured in weeks not months. **THE PERSISTENT RISK PREMIUM** ➡️ Even with peace declared today Iran could restart disruptions within six months forcing traders to keep a permanent risk premium in prices. ➡️ Full confidence in tanker traffic and production infrastructure takes far longer to rebuild than any headline can deliver. ➡️ Oil is a physical flow commodity not an electronic market that resets with the stroke of a pen or a government press release. **THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION MANDATE** ➡️ Roughly ten million barrels per day of global demand must be destroyed to rebalance the market after losing that much daily production. ➡️ History shows oil demand only falls after violent price spikes and it always damages the broader economy in the process. ➡️ Current levels near one hundred dollars are simply not high enough to force the necessary cuts in jet fuel gasoline and diesel fast enough. **THE BOTTOM LINE** A peace deal implemented yesterday fixes the politics but completely ignores the physics of oil markets. Prices remain incorrect at current levels and the path to one hundred fifty dollar oil is still wide open regardless of any headline. This is the sound of markets finally waking up to the real cost of the crisis. HT: YouTube Macro Voices Erik Townsend 🛢️ #OilRestart #HormuzCrisis #PeaceDealMyth #OilPrices #EnergyShock #DemandDestruction #MorganDowney
1:06

PEACE DEAL YESTERDAY? OIL STILL HEADED TO $150 Traders are convinced any peace deal in the Strait of Hormuz will crash oil prices overnight. Morgan Downey, the man who literally wrote the book on oil markets just destroyed that assumption. Even if a deal was signed yesterday the physical realities of global energy flows guarantee prices stay wrong and head much higher. **THE FLYWHEEL RESTART TRAP** ➡️ Tankers need one to two full months to resume normal transit and restart the global supply chain from the Middle East. ➡️ Shut-in wells across Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and others require slow complex engineering restarts that have never been attempted at this scale before. ➡️ Damaged LNG facilities in Qatar alone could take four to five years to return to full capacity because critical turbines are backlogged worldwide. **THE TEMPORARY BUFFERS HAVE EXPIRED** ➡️ Strategic petroleum reserve releases and Iranian floating storage have already been largely drawn down to mask the shortage. ➡️ Technology-driven inventory efficiencies over the past five years created a hidden one-time cushion of roughly one billion barrels but that advantage is now spent. ➡️ The world has consumed its safety margins and now sits on a fuse measured in weeks not months. **THE PERSISTENT RISK PREMIUM** ➡️ Even with peace declared today Iran could restart disruptions within six months forcing traders to keep a permanent risk premium in prices. ➡️ Full confidence in tanker traffic and production infrastructure takes far longer to rebuild than any headline can deliver. ➡️ Oil is a physical flow commodity not an electronic market that resets with the stroke of a pen or a government press release. **THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION MANDATE** ➡️ Roughly ten million barrels per day of global demand must be destroyed to rebalance the market after losing that much daily production. ➡️ History shows oil demand only falls after violent price spikes and it always damages the broader economy in the process. ➡️ Current levels near one hundred dollars are simply not high enough to force the necessary cuts in jet fuel gasoline and diesel fast enough. **THE BOTTOM LINE** A peace deal implemented yesterday fixes the politics but completely ignores the physics of oil markets. Prices remain incorrect at current levels and the path to one hundred fifty dollar oil is still wide open regardless of any headline. This is the sound of markets finally waking up to the real cost of the crisis. HT: YouTube Macro Voices Erik Townsend 🛢️ #OilRestart #HormuzCrisis #PeaceDealMyth #OilPrices #EnergyShock #DemandDestruction #MorganDowney

Mark

65,340 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

CHEVRON CEO: PHYSICAL OIL SHORTAGES HAVE BEGUN AND PRICES WILL FOLLOW Chevron CEO Mike Wirth just delivered a blunt assessment that cuts through the market noise. Traders keep crude pinned between 90 and 100 dollars because they believe the Strait of Hormuz crisis is almost over. The physical facts on the ground tell a far more dangerous story of collapsing inventories and shortages that have already arrived. THE MARKET PSYCHOLOGY TRAP ➡️ Traders see the conflict as closer to the end than the beginning and expect flows to resume very quickly. ➡️ That belief has kept the back end of the futures curve artificially low. ➡️ The psychology has so far prevented prices from moving toward the much higher levels the supply shock would normally justify. THE INVENTORY REALITY ➡️ Crude and product inventories are steadily drawing down in locations around the world right now. ➡️ June and July are going to be critical months as the trajectory heads straight toward the bottom. ➡️ The data shows a clear and concerning path that cannot be wished away. THE SHORTAGE EVIDENCE ➡️ Physical shortages have already appeared in some Asian markets. ➡️ "We've seen some rationing" and adjusted workweeks imposed in affected countries. ➡️ The system carries powerful inertia and turning it around will not be easy or fast. THE US TIGHTNESS ➡️ Distillate fuel inventories in the United States have reached their lowest levels since 2003. ➡️ Refineries are running at maximum utilization while record exports continue to support allies. ➡️ Seasonal demand is rising into an already extremely tight market. THE UNPRECEDENTED SCALE ➡️ Twenty percent of the world's energy production has been cut off for nearly 100 days. ➡️ A billion barrels that should have been in the market are simply not there. ➡️ This is not a normal cycle and the usual patterns may not apply in the usual way. THE BOTTOM LINE Mike Wirth makes it clear that the current price calm rests on hope rather than physical reality and the risk of genuine shortages spreading is rising fast. The calm before the storm is ending. #OilShortages #ChevronCEO #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #InventoryCrash #AsiaRationing #USDistillateLow
1:17

CHEVRON CEO: PHYSICAL OIL SHORTAGES HAVE BEGUN AND PRICES WILL FOLLOW Chevron CEO Mike Wirth just delivered a blunt assessment that cuts through the market noise. Traders keep crude pinned between 90 and 100 dollars because they believe the Strait of Hormuz crisis is almost over. The physical facts on the ground tell a far more dangerous story of collapsing inventories and shortages that have already arrived. THE MARKET PSYCHOLOGY TRAP ➡️ Traders see the conflict as closer to the end than the beginning and expect flows to resume very quickly. ➡️ That belief has kept the back end of the futures curve artificially low. ➡️ The psychology has so far prevented prices from moving toward the much higher levels the supply shock would normally justify. THE INVENTORY REALITY ➡️ Crude and product inventories are steadily drawing down in locations around the world right now. ➡️ June and July are going to be critical months as the trajectory heads straight toward the bottom. ➡️ The data shows a clear and concerning path that cannot be wished away. THE SHORTAGE EVIDENCE ➡️ Physical shortages have already appeared in some Asian markets. ➡️ "We've seen some rationing" and adjusted workweeks imposed in affected countries. ➡️ The system carries powerful inertia and turning it around will not be easy or fast. THE US TIGHTNESS ➡️ Distillate fuel inventories in the United States have reached their lowest levels since 2003. ➡️ Refineries are running at maximum utilization while record exports continue to support allies. ➡️ Seasonal demand is rising into an already extremely tight market. THE UNPRECEDENTED SCALE ➡️ Twenty percent of the world's energy production has been cut off for nearly 100 days. ➡️ A billion barrels that should have been in the market are simply not there. ➡️ This is not a normal cycle and the usual patterns may not apply in the usual way. THE BOTTOM LINE Mike Wirth makes it clear that the current price calm rests on hope rather than physical reality and the risk of genuine shortages spreading is rising fast. The calm before the storm is ending. #OilShortages #ChevronCEO #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #InventoryCrash #AsiaRationing #USDistillateLow

Mark

237,399 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

9 MILLION BARRELS A DAY VANISHED: THE OIL MARKET IS TIGHTER THAN IT LOOKS David Wech has spent more than twenty years counting barrels. As Chief Economist at Vortexa he now tracks every cargo, every tanker and every storage tank in near real time. His latest picture is stark: on paper the world has plenty of oil, yet the barrels that actually reach buyers are disappearing fast. Combined oil-on-water and onshore stocks have been falling at around 9 million barrels a day. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ Oil on the water is a moving stock — produced but not yet consumed. ➡️ That floating inventory plus onshore tanks have been draining at a pace few expected. ➡️ The three biggest producers are driving most of the drop: the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia. THE US EXPORT SHUT-OFF ➡️ America started the summer with high stocks and an SPR release that freed extra WTI for export. ➡️ Extra crude exports peaked near 2.2 million barrels a day above year-ago levels. ➡️ The SPR programme has stopped, US refiners are running flat out for diesel and jet, and commercial stocks have fallen. ➡️ Extra exports have now collapsed back to last year’s levels. THE DIESEL EMERGENCY ➡️ The shortage is not mainly in crude. It is in diesel, jet and other products. ➡️ Russian and Middle East diesel exports together have been more than 50 percent below normal for two months. ➡️ Russia, once the world’s largest diesel exporter, is now close to zero and has banned diesel shipments until at least 1 September. ➡️ The United States has become the world’s biggest diesel exporter, but maintenance season and hurricane risk make those record flows hard to sustain. THE HORMUZ REALITY ➡️ White House officials have cited 8 to 10 million barrels a day leaving the Gulf on short moving averages. ➡️ Vortexa’s more relevant 28-day average sits near 6.5 million barrels a day of total oil. ➡️ Daily and seven-day numbers swing wildly. One day hit 15 million. That does not make a trend. ➡️ A new shuttle system of VLCCs now loads inside the Gulf, goes dark, and transfers cargo outside the Strait. ➡️ Transits happen mostly at night. Confirmed figures usually take three to four days. WHO IS ACTUALLY EXPORTING ➡️ Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have raised loadings and are taking the risk. ➡️ Saudi Arabia remains the most cautious player and is shipping at very low levels. ➡️ Iranian exports are essentially zero since the latest escalation. ➡️ Risk tolerance, not reservoir quality, now decides who gets oil out. THE CHINA WILD CARD ➡️ China is the biggest potential balancer. ➡️ Refiners are racing to use this year’s quotas so they can lock in larger allowances for 2027. ➡️ That means higher crude imports and more product exports — bullish for crude, potentially easier for diesel later. ➡️ July Asian crude imports looked normal. Far less Atlantic-basin crude is now on the water. That shortfall hits in September. THE POSITIONING TRAP ➡️ Asian buyers are betting heavily that Middle East volumes will surge in the coming weeks. ➡️ Freight rates have spiked to records. Ballast tankers are lining up outside Hormuz. ➡️ If that expected flood does not arrive, the market is set up for a sharp crude squeeze. THE BOTTOM LINE Theoretical supply is ample. Physical barrels that reach the market are not. Diesel is already the tightest corner of the complex, Hormuz flows remain well below official claims, and Asia is positioned for a recovery that still has to prove itself. The tightness is already here. Most of the market is still looking the other way. HT: YouTube CLEAR COMMODITY NETWORK #OilMarket #Hormuz #DieselShortage #OilOnWater #Vortexa #EnergyCrisis #ChinaOil
1:50

9 MILLION BARRELS A DAY VANISHED: THE OIL MARKET IS TIGHTER THAN IT LOOKS David Wech has spent more than twenty years counting barrels. As Chief Economist at Vortexa he now tracks every cargo, every tanker and every storage tank in near real time. His latest picture is stark: on paper the world has plenty of oil, yet the barrels that actually reach buyers are disappearing fast. Combined oil-on-water and onshore stocks have been falling at around 9 million barrels a day. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ Oil on the water is a moving stock — produced but not yet consumed. ➡️ That floating inventory plus onshore tanks have been draining at a pace few expected. ➡️ The three biggest producers are driving most of the drop: the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia. THE US EXPORT SHUT-OFF ➡️ America started the summer with high stocks and an SPR release that freed extra WTI for export. ➡️ Extra crude exports peaked near 2.2 million barrels a day above year-ago levels. ➡️ The SPR programme has stopped, US refiners are running flat out for diesel and jet, and commercial stocks have fallen. ➡️ Extra exports have now collapsed back to last year’s levels. THE DIESEL EMERGENCY ➡️ The shortage is not mainly in crude. It is in diesel, jet and other products. ➡️ Russian and Middle East diesel exports together have been more than 50 percent below normal for two months. ➡️ Russia, once the world’s largest diesel exporter, is now close to zero and has banned diesel shipments until at least 1 September. ➡️ The United States has become the world’s biggest diesel exporter, but maintenance season and hurricane risk make those record flows hard to sustain. THE HORMUZ REALITY ➡️ White House officials have cited 8 to 10 million barrels a day leaving the Gulf on short moving averages. ➡️ Vortexa’s more relevant 28-day average sits near 6.5 million barrels a day of total oil. ➡️ Daily and seven-day numbers swing wildly. One day hit 15 million. That does not make a trend. ➡️ A new shuttle system of VLCCs now loads inside the Gulf, goes dark, and transfers cargo outside the Strait. ➡️ Transits happen mostly at night. Confirmed figures usually take three to four days. WHO IS ACTUALLY EXPORTING ➡️ Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have raised loadings and are taking the risk. ➡️ Saudi Arabia remains the most cautious player and is shipping at very low levels. ➡️ Iranian exports are essentially zero since the latest escalation. ➡️ Risk tolerance, not reservoir quality, now decides who gets oil out. THE CHINA WILD CARD ➡️ China is the biggest potential balancer. ➡️ Refiners are racing to use this year’s quotas so they can lock in larger allowances for 2027. ➡️ That means higher crude imports and more product exports — bullish for crude, potentially easier for diesel later. ➡️ July Asian crude imports looked normal. Far less Atlantic-basin crude is now on the water. That shortfall hits in September. THE POSITIONING TRAP ➡️ Asian buyers are betting heavily that Middle East volumes will surge in the coming weeks. ➡️ Freight rates have spiked to records. Ballast tankers are lining up outside Hormuz. ➡️ If that expected flood does not arrive, the market is set up for a sharp crude squeeze. THE BOTTOM LINE Theoretical supply is ample. Physical barrels that reach the market are not. Diesel is already the tightest corner of the complex, Hormuz flows remain well below official claims, and Asia is positioned for a recovery that still has to prove itself. The tightness is already here. Most of the market is still looking the other way. HT: YouTube CLEAR COMMODITY NETWORK #OilMarket #Hormuz #DieselShortage #OilOnWater #Vortexa #EnergyCrisis #ChinaOil

Mark

17,800 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag

THE ENERGY TRAP: JEFF CURRIE EXPOSES WHY OIL INTERVENTION FAILED-DIESEL IS THE REAL OIL CRISIS NOBODY IS PRICING Jeff Currie, veteran commodity trader and one of the world’s leading energy experts, just laid out the clearest warning yet. Officials spent months intervening to keep oil prices down. That effort is collapsing. The real damage is already visible in diesel and product prices that the bond market still refuses to see. THE FAILED INTERVENTION ➡️ Officials first moved to suppress oil prices because rising energy costs lift the term premium on long bonds. ➡️ They treated oil as a lever to keep long-term interest rates from climbing. ➡️ That strategy has now failed. Crude has climbed back near 94. ➡️ Diesel has roughly doubled from pre-war levels and sits near historic highs. ➡️ Break-even inflation still looks calm because traders keep staring at the crude number. WHY THE CRUDE NUMBER LIES ➡️ Nobody outside a refinery actually consumes crude oil. ➡️ The prices that hit the real economy are diesel and gasoline. ➡️ Put those two products together and the effective cost is far higher than the headline crude price suggests. ➡️ Currie stresses that this disconnect is why inflation expectations remain dangerously low. ➡️ The market is pricing the wrong barrel. THE SUPPLY BREAKDOWN ➡️ Strait of Hormuz remains constrained and cannot be waved away with press statements. ➡️ Saudis are already forced to reroute crude north through the Suez because the southern Red Sea is blocked. ➡️ Black Sea oil and grain exports are disrupted at the same time. ➡️ Rhine and Panama Canal water levels restrict normal traffic. ➡️ Currie says he has never seen this many simultaneous bottlenecks in his career. THE UNDERINVESTMENT TRAP ➡️ Years of underinvestment left the refining system and upstream supply short. ➡️ Demand from defense, electrification, and re-industrialization continues to rise. ➡️ You cannot print molecules. Energy is finite in a way paper assets are not. ➡️ Currie argues this is not a transitory spike. It is the result of a decade of starved capital. THE BOTTOM LINE Jeff Currie has spent decades trading these markets. His message is blunt: the crude price is the distraction. Diesel, gasoline, and physical bottlenecks are the reality. Officials tried to control the energy market to protect the bond market. Both are now slipping at once. Energy scarcity just became the dominant force. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ #JeffCurrie #OilCrisis #DieselShock #EnergyBottleneck #HardAssets #CommoditySuperCycle #StraitOfHormuz
1:34

THE ENERGY TRAP: JEFF CURRIE EXPOSES WHY OIL INTERVENTION FAILED-DIESEL IS THE REAL OIL CRISIS NOBODY IS PRICING Jeff Currie, veteran commodity trader and one of the world’s leading energy experts, just laid out the clearest warning yet. Officials spent months intervening to keep oil prices down. That effort is collapsing. The real damage is already visible in diesel and product prices that the bond market still refuses to see. THE FAILED INTERVENTION ➡️ Officials first moved to suppress oil prices because rising energy costs lift the term premium on long bonds. ➡️ They treated oil as a lever to keep long-term interest rates from climbing. ➡️ That strategy has now failed. Crude has climbed back near 94. ➡️ Diesel has roughly doubled from pre-war levels and sits near historic highs. ➡️ Break-even inflation still looks calm because traders keep staring at the crude number. WHY THE CRUDE NUMBER LIES ➡️ Nobody outside a refinery actually consumes crude oil. ➡️ The prices that hit the real economy are diesel and gasoline. ➡️ Put those two products together and the effective cost is far higher than the headline crude price suggests. ➡️ Currie stresses that this disconnect is why inflation expectations remain dangerously low. ➡️ The market is pricing the wrong barrel. THE SUPPLY BREAKDOWN ➡️ Strait of Hormuz remains constrained and cannot be waved away with press statements. ➡️ Saudis are already forced to reroute crude north through the Suez because the southern Red Sea is blocked. ➡️ Black Sea oil and grain exports are disrupted at the same time. ➡️ Rhine and Panama Canal water levels restrict normal traffic. ➡️ Currie says he has never seen this many simultaneous bottlenecks in his career. THE UNDERINVESTMENT TRAP ➡️ Years of underinvestment left the refining system and upstream supply short. ➡️ Demand from defense, electrification, and re-industrialization continues to rise. ➡️ You cannot print molecules. Energy is finite in a way paper assets are not. ➡️ Currie argues this is not a transitory spike. It is the result of a decade of starved capital. THE BOTTOM LINE Jeff Currie has spent decades trading these markets. His message is blunt: the crude price is the distraction. Diesel, gasoline, and physical bottlenecks are the reality. Officials tried to control the energy market to protect the bond market. Both are now slipping at once. Energy scarcity just became the dominant force. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ #JeffCurrie #OilCrisis #DieselShock #EnergyBottleneck #HardAssets #CommoditySuperCycle #StraitOfHormuz

Mark

16,142 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

ART BERMAN ON THE BIGGEST BLUNDER IN HISTORY: GEOLOGIST WARNS OF JULY CRUNCH Nate Hagens welcomes petroleum geologist Art Berman back for another truly fascinating conversation. With over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience and deep expertise on US shale plays, Art delivers a sobering deep dive into the data surrounding the Strait of Hormuz closure. What he reveals about impending shortages, system risks, and the true scale of this conflict will change how you see the months ahead. THE SCALE OF THE CRISIS ➡️ Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and refined products normally flow through Hormuz — exactly what the United States consumes daily. ➡️ As of now pretty close to zero is getting through, with only Iranian oil moving at all. ➡️ That leaves about 11 to 12 million barrels offline — roughly 11% of global supply suddenly gone. WORSE THAN THE 1970s SHOCKS ➡️ The rate of loss is up to 100 times greater than the 1979 Iranian Revolution shock when normalized for daily impact. ➡️ Leads and lags mean the US has not felt the full pinch yet but places like East Asia and Africa already have. ➡️ Strategic reserves are being drawn down at the maximum physical rate of about 2 million barrels per day. WHY JULY LOOKS BRUTAL ➡️ Even if peace breaks out tomorrow, hundreds of tankers parked inside Hormuz will take 2 to 3 months to reach destinations. ➡️ Production shut-ins, mines in the strait, insurance issues, and repositioning delays all add months more. ➡️ By July gasoline and especially diesel prices will reach levels where many people simply cannot afford to fill their tanks. THE DIESEL HEART ATTACK ➡️ Diesel powers ships, trains, trucks, farms, mining — basically the entire global economy. ➡️ Spot prices in places like Singapore have already hit the equivalent of $210 per barrel. ➡️ Higher diesel costs cascade into everything you buy, from groceries to delivered goods. THE US OIL ILLUSION ➡️ America is a net energy exporter on paper but remains a significant net importer of crude oil. ➡️ We export light shale oil ideal for gasoline but must import heavy oil to make enough diesel and jet fuel. ➡️ Our complex refineries are specifically designed around this mix — there is no quick fix. THE REFINERY SQUEEZE ➡️ Physical oil is trading at $140–$160 per barrel while futures sit much lower. ➡️ Refineries need strong margins to operate profitably at these prices. ➡️ If margins collapse, throughput will be cut, making shortages even worse regardless of crude availability. PEAK MATERIALS REALITY ➡️ Steel, cement and fertilizer production have already been declining for years. ➡️ Plastics are flattening. ➡️ These four pillars support modern civilization — their peak means we were already slowing before Hormuz. THE RENEWABLES LIMIT ➡️ Solar panels, wind turbines and EVs still require massive steel, plastics and concrete. ➡️ Critical minerals are overwhelmingly controlled by China. ➡️ We are simply trading Persian Gulf dependence for Chinese dependence. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman and Nate Hagens lay out why this conflict represents the biggest military, geopolitical, and economic blunder in modern history — driven by energy blindness and a failure to grasp system implications. Even in the best case we are screwed through the rest of the year no matter what happens next. HT: YouTube Nate Hagens Art Berman Nate Hagens #TheGreatSimplification #ArtBerman #HormuzCrisis #OilShortage #DieselCrunch #EnergyBlunder #GreatSimplification
1:40

ART BERMAN ON THE BIGGEST BLUNDER IN HISTORY: GEOLOGIST WARNS OF JULY CRUNCH Nate Hagens welcomes petroleum geologist Art Berman back for another truly fascinating conversation. With over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience and deep expertise on US shale plays, Art delivers a sobering deep dive into the data surrounding the Strait of Hormuz closure. What he reveals about impending shortages, system risks, and the true scale of this conflict will change how you see the months ahead. THE SCALE OF THE CRISIS ➡️ Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and refined products normally flow through Hormuz — exactly what the United States consumes daily. ➡️ As of now pretty close to zero is getting through, with only Iranian oil moving at all. ➡️ That leaves about 11 to 12 million barrels offline — roughly 11% of global supply suddenly gone. WORSE THAN THE 1970s SHOCKS ➡️ The rate of loss is up to 100 times greater than the 1979 Iranian Revolution shock when normalized for daily impact. ➡️ Leads and lags mean the US has not felt the full pinch yet but places like East Asia and Africa already have. ➡️ Strategic reserves are being drawn down at the maximum physical rate of about 2 million barrels per day. WHY JULY LOOKS BRUTAL ➡️ Even if peace breaks out tomorrow, hundreds of tankers parked inside Hormuz will take 2 to 3 months to reach destinations. ➡️ Production shut-ins, mines in the strait, insurance issues, and repositioning delays all add months more. ➡️ By July gasoline and especially diesel prices will reach levels where many people simply cannot afford to fill their tanks. THE DIESEL HEART ATTACK ➡️ Diesel powers ships, trains, trucks, farms, mining — basically the entire global economy. ➡️ Spot prices in places like Singapore have already hit the equivalent of $210 per barrel. ➡️ Higher diesel costs cascade into everything you buy, from groceries to delivered goods. THE US OIL ILLUSION ➡️ America is a net energy exporter on paper but remains a significant net importer of crude oil. ➡️ We export light shale oil ideal for gasoline but must import heavy oil to make enough diesel and jet fuel. ➡️ Our complex refineries are specifically designed around this mix — there is no quick fix. THE REFINERY SQUEEZE ➡️ Physical oil is trading at $140–$160 per barrel while futures sit much lower. ➡️ Refineries need strong margins to operate profitably at these prices. ➡️ If margins collapse, throughput will be cut, making shortages even worse regardless of crude availability. PEAK MATERIALS REALITY ➡️ Steel, cement and fertilizer production have already been declining for years. ➡️ Plastics are flattening. ➡️ These four pillars support modern civilization — their peak means we were already slowing before Hormuz. THE RENEWABLES LIMIT ➡️ Solar panels, wind turbines and EVs still require massive steel, plastics and concrete. ➡️ Critical minerals are overwhelmingly controlled by China. ➡️ We are simply trading Persian Gulf dependence for Chinese dependence. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman and Nate Hagens lay out why this conflict represents the biggest military, geopolitical, and economic blunder in modern history — driven by energy blindness and a failure to grasp system implications. Even in the best case we are screwed through the rest of the year no matter what happens next. HT: YouTube Nate Hagens Art Berman Nate Hagens #TheGreatSimplification #ArtBerman #HormuzCrisis #OilShortage #DieselCrunch #EnergyBlunder #GreatSimplification

Mark

57,339 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

OIL INVENTORIES AT 43-YEAR LOW: EXPERT PREDICTS BRENT ABOVE $100 THIS SUMMER Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, just delivered a direct assessment of why the oil market remains far from normal. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of June, commercial tankers will return only gradually while inventories have already crashed to historic lows. The combination of those depleted stocks and a powerful demand rebound from Asia creates a tightening setup that few traders have fully absorbed. THE HORMUZ REALITY ➡️ It will take through the end of this month before it is really safe and clear for commercial vessels to start moving through Hormuz. ➡️ Agreements must be signed and insurance secured before operators will risk the transit. ➡️ Channels need to be fully cleared of mines for tankers from Europe and the United States to move safely. ➡️ If the MoU holds, a trickle of vessels will gradually become a steady stream. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ➡️ Gasoline inventories sit at an 11-year seasonal low in the United States. ➡️ Distillate stocks have reached a 29-year seasonal low. ➡️ Crude petroleum reserves just hit a 43-year low. ➡️ These deep stock draws will continue for months as the system works through the disruption. THE PRICE OUTLOOK ➡️ McNally expects Brent to make another pass above $100 a barrel in July and August. ➡️ Global summer demand rises by about 1.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Record export levels are adding to an already tight market. ➡️ "I'll be surprised if we can sustainably go much lower," he stated on current price levels. THE DEMAND REBOUND ➡️ Asia has been on a crash diet since late February, holding back crude purchases. ➡️ Pent-up demand will surge back as countries rush to refill and expand strategic reserves. ➡️ China wants to build even bigger reserves than it held before. ➡️ This demand wave could outpace the return of supply from the Arabian Gulf. THE BOTTOM LINE Low inventories and explosive pent-up demand from Asia are about to collide just as Gulf supply struggles to return at full speed. The oil market is heading into a high-conviction summer where even a successful Hormuz reopening will not prevent prices from testing sharply higher ground. #OilInventories #HormuzReopen #BrentOil #EnergyMarkets #OilPriceSpike #AsiaDemand #InventoryCrisis
1:09

OIL INVENTORIES AT 43-YEAR LOW: EXPERT PREDICTS BRENT ABOVE $100 THIS SUMMER Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, just delivered a direct assessment of why the oil market remains far from normal. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of June, commercial tankers will return only gradually while inventories have already crashed to historic lows. The combination of those depleted stocks and a powerful demand rebound from Asia creates a tightening setup that few traders have fully absorbed. THE HORMUZ REALITY ➡️ It will take through the end of this month before it is really safe and clear for commercial vessels to start moving through Hormuz. ➡️ Agreements must be signed and insurance secured before operators will risk the transit. ➡️ Channels need to be fully cleared of mines for tankers from Europe and the United States to move safely. ➡️ If the MoU holds, a trickle of vessels will gradually become a steady stream. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ➡️ Gasoline inventories sit at an 11-year seasonal low in the United States. ➡️ Distillate stocks have reached a 29-year seasonal low. ➡️ Crude petroleum reserves just hit a 43-year low. ➡️ These deep stock draws will continue for months as the system works through the disruption. THE PRICE OUTLOOK ➡️ McNally expects Brent to make another pass above $100 a barrel in July and August. ➡️ Global summer demand rises by about 1.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Record export levels are adding to an already tight market. ➡️ "I'll be surprised if we can sustainably go much lower," he stated on current price levels. THE DEMAND REBOUND ➡️ Asia has been on a crash diet since late February, holding back crude purchases. ➡️ Pent-up demand will surge back as countries rush to refill and expand strategic reserves. ➡️ China wants to build even bigger reserves than it held before. ➡️ This demand wave could outpace the return of supply from the Arabian Gulf. THE BOTTOM LINE Low inventories and explosive pent-up demand from Asia are about to collide just as Gulf supply struggles to return at full speed. The oil market is heading into a high-conviction summer where even a successful Hormuz reopening will not prevent prices from testing sharply higher ground. #OilInventories #HormuzReopen #BrentOil #EnergyMarkets #OilPriceSpike #AsiaDemand #InventoryCrisis

Mark

38,566 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

TRUMP'S CHEAP OIL FANTASY COLLAPSES: $150 BARREL BY YEAR END Oil trader Troy W. Eckard explains why President Trump is doing everything in his power to drive down the price of crude oil and force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The entire economic narrative he wants America to believe depends on it. Yet the logistics, the debt, and the supply destruction are already writing a very different ending. THE REAL REASON HE NEEDS CHEAP OIL ➡️ Trump’s core story is the strongest, most booming economy in modern history. ➡️ That story only works with extremely low interest rates. ➡️ Higher energy prices drive inflation and raise the cost of capital across the entire system. ➡️ When oil stays elevated, demand destruction begins and the narrative starts to crack. THE ADVERSARY WINDFALL ➡️ Every dollar higher in oil fills the coffers of Russia, Iran, Iraq and other non-allied nations. ➡️ Billions upon billions flow to the exact countries the United States wants to constrain. ➡️ It becomes almost impossible to limit their global power when high prices keep handing them cash. THE HORMUZ HORNET’S NEST ➡️ The decision to confront Iran over the Strait was a misguided judgment call. ➡️ They do not need nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. A $25,000 drone can disrupt pipelines, terminals and vessels day after day. ➡️ Roughly 1.5 billion barrels of supply have already been lost since the conflict began. ➡️ Between 12 and 20 million barrels per day remain disrupted with no clear end in sight. THE $40 TRILLION DEBT BOMB ➡️ America now carries about $40 trillion in debt and roughly $1.2 trillion in annual interest payments alone. ➡️ Rising long-term yields signal that buyers of U.S. debt demand higher compensation for rising risk. ➡️ Commercial real estate, residential mortgages and the massive new AI and data-center buildout all depend on cheap energy and cheap capital. ➡️ Higher oil and higher rates threaten to dismantle the financial models those projects were built on. THE PRICE REALITY AHEAD ➡️ Oil is likely headed north of $95 a barrel by the end of December. ➡️ Depending on the severity of ongoing disruption, prices could easily clear $100 within the next 45 days. ➡️ A move toward $150 by year-end is not rhetoric. It is a logical outcome of sustained 12-to-20-million-barrel daily shortfalls. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump’s entire economic plan rests on cheap oil and low rates. The Strait blockade and the supply destruction already underway are delivering the opposite result at scale. This is the sound of an economic narrative colliding with physical reality. #OilTo150 #TrumpOilTrap #HormuzBlockade #DebtBomb #CrudeBullRun #EnergyCrisis #AIEnergyDemand HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing
1:43

TRUMP'S CHEAP OIL FANTASY COLLAPSES: $150 BARREL BY YEAR END Oil trader Troy W. Eckard explains why President Trump is doing everything in his power to drive down the price of crude oil and force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The entire economic narrative he wants America to believe depends on it. Yet the logistics, the debt, and the supply destruction are already writing a very different ending. THE REAL REASON HE NEEDS CHEAP OIL ➡️ Trump’s core story is the strongest, most booming economy in modern history. ➡️ That story only works with extremely low interest rates. ➡️ Higher energy prices drive inflation and raise the cost of capital across the entire system. ➡️ When oil stays elevated, demand destruction begins and the narrative starts to crack. THE ADVERSARY WINDFALL ➡️ Every dollar higher in oil fills the coffers of Russia, Iran, Iraq and other non-allied nations. ➡️ Billions upon billions flow to the exact countries the United States wants to constrain. ➡️ It becomes almost impossible to limit their global power when high prices keep handing them cash. THE HORMUZ HORNET’S NEST ➡️ The decision to confront Iran over the Strait was a misguided judgment call. ➡️ They do not need nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. A $25,000 drone can disrupt pipelines, terminals and vessels day after day. ➡️ Roughly 1.5 billion barrels of supply have already been lost since the conflict began. ➡️ Between 12 and 20 million barrels per day remain disrupted with no clear end in sight. THE $40 TRILLION DEBT BOMB ➡️ America now carries about $40 trillion in debt and roughly $1.2 trillion in annual interest payments alone. ➡️ Rising long-term yields signal that buyers of U.S. debt demand higher compensation for rising risk. ➡️ Commercial real estate, residential mortgages and the massive new AI and data-center buildout all depend on cheap energy and cheap capital. ➡️ Higher oil and higher rates threaten to dismantle the financial models those projects were built on. THE PRICE REALITY AHEAD ➡️ Oil is likely headed north of $95 a barrel by the end of December. ➡️ Depending on the severity of ongoing disruption, prices could easily clear $100 within the next 45 days. ➡️ A move toward $150 by year-end is not rhetoric. It is a logical outcome of sustained 12-to-20-million-barrel daily shortfalls. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump’s entire economic plan rests on cheap oil and low rates. The Strait blockade and the supply destruction already underway are delivering the opposite result at scale. This is the sound of an economic narrative colliding with physical reality. #OilTo150 #TrumpOilTrap #HormuzBlockade #DebtBomb #CrudeBullRun #EnergyCrisis #AIEnergyDemand HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing

Mark

35,863 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat