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🇬🇧 🇷🇺 Europe has convinced itself it can strike Russia without consequences. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen calls that the most dangerous assumption on the continent right now, because Moscow doesn't need tanks rolling west to prove the opposite: "They don't need to capture Berlin. They just need to make...

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🇷🇺🇵🇱 A missile landing in Poland may matter less than what Russia does next. Geopolitical analyst Prof. Glenn Diesen says the real story isn't whether the strike was accidental or intentional, but that Moscow may be trying to reestablish deterrence against NATO after years of gradual escalation. Each step crossed what were previously considered red lines, yet Russia largely avoided direct retaliation against NATO itself. Diesen argues that strategy may be reaching its limit. If the Kremlin concludes its deterrence has collapsed, it could begin responding the same way NATO gradually escalated: one small step at a time. That changes how incidents like the Polish missile are interpreted. He sees a similar pattern elsewhere. Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, warehouses and logistics hubs are intended to raise the economic cost of the war and pressure the Kremlin into negotiations. But Diesen believes the strategy misunderstands Russia's mindset. His argument is that economic pain works differently when a country believes it's fighting for its survival. Diesen's conclusion is that both sides are now operating under very different assumptions. The West believes increasing pressure will eventually force Russia to compromise. Russia believes every new escalation confirms its original argument that NATO itself is the threat. If those assumptions don't change, each new strike intended to shorten the war may instead convince both sides they need to escalate even further. Glenn Diesen

Mario Nawfal

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