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Even within our own research team, timelines for transformative AI differ substantially. In this episode, the two Epoch AI researchers with the longest and the shortest timelines for transformative AI candidly examine the roots of their disagreements. They discuss: How and why their timelines for specific milestones differ Current...

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Epoch AI

26,330 subscribers

159,795 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 6

Фото профиля Epoch AI
Epoch AI1 год назад

Epoch After Hours: Youtube: Apple Podcasts: Spotify: Pocket Casts: RSS Feed:

Фото профиля Coral AI News
Coral AI News1 год назад

Coral AI is the most powerful AI for documents. See the difference yourself:

Фото профиля Spencer Schiff
Spencer Schiff1 год назад

Oh my fucking god this is like the Superbowl for me

Фото профиля Jordan Schneider
Jordan Schneider1 год назад

ugh first one was 5 hrs hate to see you losing steam

Фото профиля Sean
Sean1 год назад

Gotta back the diet coke guy.

Фото профиля Rogs 🔍🔸
Rogs 🔍🔸1 год назад

> How a world with AGI might look like Pet peeve: it should be "what ... look like" or "how ... look", but never "how ... look like".

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Here's my conversation with Roman Yampolskiy (Dr. Roman Yampolskiy), AI safety researcher who believes that the chance of AGI eventually destroying human civilization is 99.9999%. I will continue to chat with many AI researchers & engineers, most of whom put p(doom) at <20%, but it's important to balance those technical conversations by understanding the long-term existential risks of AI. This was a terrifying and fascinating discussion. It's here on X in full, and is up on YouTube, Spotify, and everywhere else. Links in comment. Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction 2:20 - Existential risk of AGI 8:32 - Ikigai risk 16:44 - Suffering risk 20:19 - Timeline to AGI 24:51 - AGI turing test 30:14 - Yann LeCun and open source AI 43:06 - AI control 45:33 - Social engineering 48:06 - Fearmongering 57:57 - AI deception 1:04:30 - Verification 1:11:29 - Self-improving AI 1:23:42 - Pausing AI development 1:29:59 - AI Safety 1:39:43 - Current AI 1:45:05 - Simulation 1:52:24 - Aliens 1:53:57 - Human mind 2:00:17 - Neuralink 2:09:23 - Hope for the future 2:13:18 - Meaning of life

Lex Fridman

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Lex Fridman

1,022,139 просмотров • 2 лет назад

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Epoch AI

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Epoch AI

22,037 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

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Ryan Greenblatt is lead author of "Alignment faking in LLMs" and one of AI's most productive researchers. He puts a 25% probability on automating AI research by 2029. We discuss: • Concrete evidence for and against AGI coming soon • The 4 easiest ways for AI to take over • What evidence we have on how fast / long the intelligence explosion will go • Would misaligned AGI go rogue early or bide its time • Whether 'pause at human level' is naive or smart • Lots more. My head was often spinning during this interview, in a good way. Find it on the 80,000 Hours Podcast, links below. Enjoy! 1:29 How close are we to automating AI R&D? 5:15 Really, though: how capable are today's models? 13:01 Why AI companies get automated first 18:10 Most likely ways for AGI to take over 30:04 Would AGI go rogue early or bide its time? 34:53 "Pause at human level" 46:43 AI control vs AI alignment 52:38 Do we have to hope to catch AIs red-handed? 56:57 How would a slow AGI takeoff look? 1:05:04 Why might an intelligence explosion not happen for 8+ years? 1:17:05 Key challenges in forecasting AI progress 1:25:07 The bear case on AGI 1:30:59 The change to "compute at inference" 1:36:38 How much has pretraining petered out? 1:49:08 Could we get an intelligence explosion within a year? 1:53:08 Reasons AIs might struggle to replace humans 2:00:10 Things could go insanely fast when we automate AI R&D. Or not. 2:14:52 How fast would the intelligence explosion slow down? 2:27:53 Bottom line for mortals 2:34:00 Six orders of magnitude of progress... what does that even look like? 2:44:10 Neglected and important technical work people should be doing 2:48:16 What's the most promising work in governance? 2:51:37 Ryan's current research priorities

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34,618 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

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Will AI drive Europe towards a “high interest rates, no growth” future? How will automation impact entry-level workers and the structure of firms? What role does Europe play as the US and China continue to push AI progress? On this episode of Epoch After Hours, Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 joins Epoch AI researchers Anson Ho and Andrei Potlogea to discuss these questions. -- Timestamps -- 0:00:00 – Will AI trigger explosive growth? 0:06:26 – Short-run macroeconomic effects 0:11:29 – The decline of junior jobs 0:20:21 – The missing training ladder 0:39:31 – Europe’s AI regulation problem 0:52:46 – Who captures AI value? 01:08:17 – AI, interest rates & fiscal future
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Will AI drive Europe towards a “high interest rates, no growth” future? How will automation impact entry-level workers and the structure of firms? What role does Europe play as the US and China continue to push AI progress? On this episode of Epoch After Hours, Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 joins Epoch AI researchers Anson Ho and Andrei Potlogea to discuss these questions. -- Timestamps -- 0:00:00 – Will AI trigger explosive growth? 0:06:26 – Short-run macroeconomic effects 0:11:29 – The decline of junior jobs 0:20:21 – The missing training ladder 0:39:31 – Europe’s AI regulation problem 0:52:46 – Who captures AI value? 01:08:17 – AI, interest rates & fiscal future

Epoch AI

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Epoch AI

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Epoch AI

152,591 просмотров • 1 год назад

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4:25:12

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Lex Fridman

906,632 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

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The vik episode on Ground Zero! [youtube link in replies] 0:00:00 - Vik's story and Moondream 0:18:50 - The core thesis of small and scale 0:28:35 - The data problem 0:33:35 - Deciding the training architecture 0:43:20 - Post-Training and RL perf 0:46:06 - Post-Training recipes of Moondream 3 0:47:40 - Open Source and VLM development priorities 0:52:05 - AI War : America and China 0:55:07 - Moondream acquisition and Future 1:04:08 - Community Questions 1:16:40 - Trivia, Lores and Opinions on state of AI 1:28:07 - Advice to 20yo

himanshu

43,246 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

The Dario Amodei interview. 0:00:00 - What exactly are we scaling? 0:12:36 - Is diffusion cope? 0:29:42 - Is continual learning necessary? 0:46:20 - If AGI is imminent, why not buy more compute? 0:58:49 - How will AI labs actually make profit? 1:31:19 - Will regulations destroy the boons of AGI? 1:47:41 - Why can’t China and America both have a country of geniuses in a datacenter? Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on Youtube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.
2:22:19

The Dario Amodei interview. 0:00:00 - What exactly are we scaling? 0:12:36 - Is diffusion cope? 0:29:42 - Is continual learning necessary? 0:46:20 - If AGI is imminent, why not buy more compute? 0:58:49 - How will AI labs actually make profit? 1:31:19 - Will regulations destroy the boons of AGI? 1:47:41 - Why can’t China and America both have a country of geniuses in a datacenter? Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on Youtube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc.

Dwarkesh Patel

2,055,152 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

My conversation with Dylan Patel on everything you ever wanted to know about the incredible buildout happening in AI infrastructure This is a whirlwind tour through the companies, deals, models, chips, power sources, partnerships, and people powering AI Dylan is some sort of genius. I wish a version of him existed for every subject. I hope you enjoy this as much as I did. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 0:39 The Infinite Money Glitch 4:42 Oracle's Bet on OpenAI 6:06 Nvidia's Strategic Investment and Deal Mechanics 9:17 Why Bigger Models Aren't Always Better 15:07 The Adoption Curve Problem 19:01 The Tokenomics of AI 23:59 Over-Parameterization and Model Learning 28:10 Building Environments for AI Training 32:16 AI in Everyday Life 34:46 The Future of Reasoning and Compute Scaling 44:34 The Spectrum of AI Optimism 46:29 Timeline to AGI 49:25 Talent Wars 58:37 Power Dynamics in the AI Ecosystem 1:18:42 AI for Material Science and Hard Tech 1:22:21 Building Infrastructure 1:29:55 US vs China: Who Really Needs AI to Win? 1:37:42 Favorite AI Bears 1:48:08 Speed Round: Company Impressions 1:55:11 The Death of Traditional SaaS Business Models 2:00:24 The Kindest Thing
2:02:21

My conversation with Dylan Patel on everything you ever wanted to know about the incredible buildout happening in AI infrastructure This is a whirlwind tour through the companies, deals, models, chips, power sources, partnerships, and people powering AI Dylan is some sort of genius. I wish a version of him existed for every subject. I hope you enjoy this as much as I did. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 0:39 The Infinite Money Glitch 4:42 Oracle's Bet on OpenAI 6:06 Nvidia's Strategic Investment and Deal Mechanics 9:17 Why Bigger Models Aren't Always Better 15:07 The Adoption Curve Problem 19:01 The Tokenomics of AI 23:59 Over-Parameterization and Model Learning 28:10 Building Environments for AI Training 32:16 AI in Everyday Life 34:46 The Future of Reasoning and Compute Scaling 44:34 The Spectrum of AI Optimism 46:29 Timeline to AGI 49:25 Talent Wars 58:37 Power Dynamics in the AI Ecosystem 1:18:42 AI for Material Science and Hard Tech 1:22:21 Building Infrastructure 1:29:55 US vs China: Who Really Needs AI to Win? 1:37:42 Favorite AI Bears 1:48:08 Speed Round: Company Impressions 1:55:11 The Death of Traditional SaaS Business Models 2:00:24 The Kindest Thing

Patrick OShaughnessy

548,353 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Another mindblowing conversation with my good friend .Emad... Enjoy!! 00:00 - Introduction 00:22 - AI: The Biggest Shift in Human History 00:42 - AI’s Impact on Society and the Economy 01:03 - Conversation with Emad Mostaque Begins 01:50 - The Acceleration of AI and Economic Takeoff 03:07 - AI Intelligence: Beyond Human IQ 04:08 - The Rise of AI Chefs and Super Cooks 05:07 - Breaking AI Constraints: Compute and Energy 07:03 - The Future of AI: Ubiquitous Intelligence 08:04 - The Shift to Local AI Models 10:07 - Why Has Apple Lagged in AI? 11:21 - The AI Race: OpenAI, Grok, Gemini, and More 13:11 - China’s Open-Source AI Strategy 14:57 - AI Bias and Ethical Challenges 16:57 - AI’s Cross-Pollination and Memory 18:02 - Are AI Models Becoming Self-Aware? 19:16 - AI, Bitcoin, and Self-Sustaining Algorithms 21:26 - AI-Driven Economies and Autonomous Companies 23:41 - The Future of Labor: A World Without Jobs? 25:26 - AI-Powered Robots: The Next Workforce Revolution 27:28 - The End of Traditional Economic Models 30:27 - The Political Shift: Humanist vs. Transhumanist 33:04 - AI in Financial Markets: The End of Human Traders? 36:03 - The Evolution of Investing in an AI World 38:33 - AI’s Impact on Capital Formation and Business Disruption 40:01 - The Rise of Digital Twins and Post-Capital Society 42:45 - Building AI for Education, Healthcare, and Governance 46:42 - The Future of Money in an AI-Driven World 50:11 - Universal Basic AI: A New Economic Model 54:29 - The Deflationary Impact of AI and Crypto’s Role 57:02 - The AI Singularity: Five Years Until Everything Changes 58:56 - The Road Ahead: AI, Crypto, and the Future of Civilization 01:02:24 - Final Thoughts: The Most Exciting and Terrifying Time in History
1:04:51

Another mindblowing conversation with my good friend .Emad... Enjoy!! 00:00 - Introduction 00:22 - AI: The Biggest Shift in Human History 00:42 - AI’s Impact on Society and the Economy 01:03 - Conversation with Emad Mostaque Begins 01:50 - The Acceleration of AI and Economic Takeoff 03:07 - AI Intelligence: Beyond Human IQ 04:08 - The Rise of AI Chefs and Super Cooks 05:07 - Breaking AI Constraints: Compute and Energy 07:03 - The Future of AI: Ubiquitous Intelligence 08:04 - The Shift to Local AI Models 10:07 - Why Has Apple Lagged in AI? 11:21 - The AI Race: OpenAI, Grok, Gemini, and More 13:11 - China’s Open-Source AI Strategy 14:57 - AI Bias and Ethical Challenges 16:57 - AI’s Cross-Pollination and Memory 18:02 - Are AI Models Becoming Self-Aware? 19:16 - AI, Bitcoin, and Self-Sustaining Algorithms 21:26 - AI-Driven Economies and Autonomous Companies 23:41 - The Future of Labor: A World Without Jobs? 25:26 - AI-Powered Robots: The Next Workforce Revolution 27:28 - The End of Traditional Economic Models 30:27 - The Political Shift: Humanist vs. Transhumanist 33:04 - AI in Financial Markets: The End of Human Traders? 36:03 - The Evolution of Investing in an AI World 38:33 - AI’s Impact on Capital Formation and Business Disruption 40:01 - The Rise of Digital Twins and Post-Capital Society 42:45 - Building AI for Education, Healthcare, and Governance 46:42 - The Future of Money in an AI-Driven World 50:11 - Universal Basic AI: A New Economic Model 54:29 - The Deflationary Impact of AI and Crypto’s Role 57:02 - The AI Singularity: Five Years Until Everything Changes 58:56 - The Road Ahead: AI, Crypto, and the Future of Civilization 01:02:24 - Final Thoughts: The Most Exciting and Terrifying Time in History

Raoul Pal

326,827 просмотров • 1 год назад

The Truth About Our AI Future w/ Ben Goertzel Ben Goertzel joins Robert ₿reedlove to explore humanity’s future in a world shaped by AGI. 0:00 – WiM Episode Trailer 1:21 – The Nature of Intelligence & the Future of AGI 10:44 – What Makes a Mind? 19:02 – The Birth of Artificial General Intelligence 22:18 – Heart and Soil Supplements 23:21 – Mine Bitcoin with Blockware Solutions 24:29 – How AGI Learns, Evolves, and Understands 33:40 – Decentralized AGI vs Centralized Superintelligence 41:34 – Onramp Bitcoin Custody 42:34 – Mind Lab Pro Supplements 43:42 – Could AGI Become Humanity’s “Next Species”? 56:17 – Consciousness Beyond Biology 1:07:22 – The Farm at Okefenokee 1:08:29 – Cooperation, Competition & Machine Agency 1:20:55 – Will AGI Merge With Humans? 1:33:01 – Club Orange 1:33:57 – How AGI Will Reshape Civilization 1:47:10 – Decentralized Networks & AI Personhood 1:51:39 – Efani: Protect Yourself From SIM Swaps 1:52:46 – Unlock the Wisdom of the Best Non-Fiction Books 1:53:14 – Final Thoughts & Where to Find Ben Goertzel
1:54:12

The Truth About Our AI Future w/ Ben Goertzel Ben Goertzel joins Robert ₿reedlove to explore humanity’s future in a world shaped by AGI. 0:00 – WiM Episode Trailer 1:21 – The Nature of Intelligence & the Future of AGI 10:44 – What Makes a Mind? 19:02 – The Birth of Artificial General Intelligence 22:18 – Heart and Soil Supplements 23:21 – Mine Bitcoin with Blockware Solutions 24:29 – How AGI Learns, Evolves, and Understands 33:40 – Decentralized AGI vs Centralized Superintelligence 41:34 – Onramp Bitcoin Custody 42:34 – Mind Lab Pro Supplements 43:42 – Could AGI Become Humanity’s “Next Species”? 56:17 – Consciousness Beyond Biology 1:07:22 – The Farm at Okefenokee 1:08:29 – Cooperation, Competition & Machine Agency 1:20:55 – Will AGI Merge With Humans? 1:33:01 – Club Orange 1:33:57 – How AGI Will Reshape Civilization 1:47:10 – Decentralized Networks & AI Personhood 1:51:39 – Efani: Protect Yourself From SIM Swaps 1:52:46 – Unlock the Wisdom of the Best Non-Fiction Books 1:53:14 – Final Thoughts & Where to Find Ben Goertzel

The "What is Money?" Show

14,377 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Sonnet 4.5 & the AI Plateau Myth — epic conversation with Sholto Douglas of Anthropic 0:00 - Intro 1:09 - What's Behind The Rapid Pace of AI Releases at Anthropic 2:49 - Opus, Sonnet, and Haiku Model Tiers 4:14 - Sholto's Story: From Australian Fencer to AI Researcher 12:01 - The YouTube Effect: Mastery Through Observation 16:16 - Breaking Into AI Research Without Traditional Academic Signals 18:29 - DeepMind, Gemini, and Building Inference Stacks 23:05 - Why Anthropic? Culture and Mission Differences Amongst AI Research Labs 25:08 - What Is "Taste" in AI Research? 31:46 - This Week's Big Launch: Sonnet 4.5, Best Coding Model in the World 36:40 - From 7 Hours to 30 Hours: The Long-Running AI Agent Breakthrough 38:41 - How AI Agents Self-Correct and Maintain Coherence 43:13 - The Role of Memory in Extended Coding Sessions 47:42 - Pre-Training vs. RL: Textbooks vs. Worked Problems 52:11 - Test-Time Compute & Reinforcement Learning 55:55 - Why RL Finally Started Working on LLMs in 2024 59:38 - The Path to AGI 1:02:05 - Are We Hitting a Plateau in AI? So Many Low Hanging Fruits 1:03:41 - Beyond Coding: GDPVal & Impact Economic Sectors 1:05:47 - Preparing for 10-100x Individual Leverage & The Upcoming Robotics Explosion
1:10:03

Sonnet 4.5 & the AI Plateau Myth — epic conversation with Sholto Douglas of Anthropic 0:00 - Intro 1:09 - What's Behind The Rapid Pace of AI Releases at Anthropic 2:49 - Opus, Sonnet, and Haiku Model Tiers 4:14 - Sholto's Story: From Australian Fencer to AI Researcher 12:01 - The YouTube Effect: Mastery Through Observation 16:16 - Breaking Into AI Research Without Traditional Academic Signals 18:29 - DeepMind, Gemini, and Building Inference Stacks 23:05 - Why Anthropic? Culture and Mission Differences Amongst AI Research Labs 25:08 - What Is "Taste" in AI Research? 31:46 - This Week's Big Launch: Sonnet 4.5, Best Coding Model in the World 36:40 - From 7 Hours to 30 Hours: The Long-Running AI Agent Breakthrough 38:41 - How AI Agents Self-Correct and Maintain Coherence 43:13 - The Role of Memory in Extended Coding Sessions 47:42 - Pre-Training vs. RL: Textbooks vs. Worked Problems 52:11 - Test-Time Compute & Reinforcement Learning 55:55 - Why RL Finally Started Working on LLMs in 2024 59:38 - The Path to AGI 1:02:05 - Are We Hitting a Plateau in AI? So Many Low Hanging Fruits 1:03:41 - Beyond Coding: GDPVal & Impact Economic Sectors 1:05:47 - Preparing for 10-100x Individual Leverage & The Upcoming Robotics Explosion

Matt Turck

93,678 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад