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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Every conventional move has failed to make Iran capitulate, and now the unthinkable is climbing the decision ladder. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why the nuclear option is now a real option. "As the situation becomes less tenable for the United States or for the administration,...

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Mario Nawfal

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60,997 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may not have a navy powerful enough to defeat the U.S., but it has enough asymmetric weapons to make any war painfully costly. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down how the Strait of Hormuz, buried missile launchers, and swarm tactics change every calculation. "As military operations continue, the options only get worse." And with China and Russia now drawing red lines, the window for a clean military solution may already be closed. Anthony Aguilar
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may not have a navy powerful enough to defeat the U.S., but it has enough asymmetric weapons to make any war painfully costly. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down how the Strait of Hormuz, buried missile launchers, and swarm tactics change every calculation. "As military operations continue, the options only get worse." And with China and Russia now drawing red lines, the window for a clean military solution may already be closed. Anthony Aguilar

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🇮🇱🇺🇸 One wrong move in the next 2 days rewrites the entire equation. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down how Iran is planning its strikes, and what a U.S. response costs. "If [it's] nothing, that is going to add to how Iran is preparing for a longer war." Anthony Aguilar
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🇮🇱🇺🇸 One wrong move in the next 2 days rewrites the entire equation. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down how Iran is planning its strikes, and what a U.S. response costs. "If [it's] nothing, that is going to add to how Iran is preparing for a longer war." Anthony Aguilar

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A low-yield tactical nuclear option may already be under consideration at the highest levels, with pressure building as the conflict drags on without resolution. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says he is confident such a strike is on the list of options for Trump, and believes its likelihood increases with each passing day. "I not only think it's possible, I firmly believe, and I am confident that it is on the list of options that the Joint Staff has prepared for the president of the United States." Anthony Aguilar
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A low-yield tactical nuclear option may already be under consideration at the highest levels, with pressure building as the conflict drags on without resolution. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says he is confident such a strike is on the list of options for Trump, and believes its likelihood increases with each passing day. "I not only think it's possible, I firmly believe, and I am confident that it is on the list of options that the Joint Staff has prepared for the president of the United States." Anthony Aguilar

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. Navy may have intentionally baited Iran into revealing its firing positions. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down how the destroyers were likely part of a textbook recon-by-fire operation in the Strait of Hormuz, absorbing Iran’s strike just long enough to lock coordinates and destroy the source. “This is classic reconnaissance by fire. You move in with military assets, draw the enemy’s capability, then counter and destroy it.” Anthony Aguilar
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. Navy may have intentionally baited Iran into revealing its firing positions. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down how the destroyers were likely part of a textbook recon-by-fire operation in the Strait of Hormuz, absorbing Iran’s strike just long enough to lock coordinates and destroy the source. “This is classic reconnaissance by fire. You move in with military assets, draw the enemy’s capability, then counter and destroy it.” Anthony Aguilar

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Professor John Mearsheimer: Israel may ultimately use nuclear weapons against Iran. It is now clear that Israel cannot prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons using its conventional forces. That option does not work. The only option they have left is nuclear weapons. The United States will not stop it.
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Professor John Mearsheimer: Israel may ultimately use nuclear weapons against Iran. It is now clear that Israel cannot prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons using its conventional forces. That option does not work. The only option they have left is nuclear weapons. The United States will not stop it.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 One missile, placed right, and a U.S. cruiser goes down. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar explains why dismissing Iran's mosquito fleet is a dangerous mistake. “A small ship can take out an aircraft carrier, a navy cruiser, or a destroyer, because they do.” Control of the Strait of Hormuz is the whole game, and right now Iran holds the leverage. @AnthonyAgu88102
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 One missile, placed right, and a U.S. cruiser goes down. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar explains why dismissing Iran's mosquito fleet is a dangerous mistake. “A small ship can take out an aircraft carrier, a navy cruiser, or a destroyer, because they do.” Control of the Strait of Hormuz is the whole game, and right now Iran holds the leverage. @AnthonyAgu88102

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The U.S. is at a turning point, with the blockade failing and Iran showing no signs of capitulation in the latest exchange. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says everything now indicates serious escalation may be imminent. "All indications to me indicate that the United States is going to continue or re-initiate hostilities." Things may be about to get a lot worse before they get any better. Anthony Aguilar
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The U.S. is at a turning point, with the blockade failing and Iran showing no signs of capitulation in the latest exchange. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says everything now indicates serious escalation may be imminent. "All indications to me indicate that the United States is going to continue or re-initiate hostilities." Things may be about to get a lot worse before they get any better. Anthony Aguilar

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Full-blown war is off the table, but what replaces it may not be any safer. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar predicts decapitation strikes on Iran are imminent. "I'm quite confident that the president of the United States, through the direction of the secretary of Defense, has the orders or the plans for U.S. forces to conduct two pronged assault operations to seize and control." Anthony Aguilar
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Full-blown war is off the table, but what replaces it may not be any safer. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar predicts decapitation strikes on Iran are imminent. "I'm quite confident that the president of the United States, through the direction of the secretary of Defense, has the orders or the plans for U.S. forces to conduct two pronged assault operations to seize and control." Anthony Aguilar

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🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇸 The Strait of Hormuz is becoming the Rubicon. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says Israel has little incentive to support a ceasefire because the military and financial burden falls largely on Washington. “Israel isn’t playing with house money. Israel is playing with U.S. money, with U.S. resources, with the U.S. Navy, not their own.” Anthony Aguilar
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🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇸 The Strait of Hormuz is becoming the Rubicon. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says Israel has little incentive to support a ceasefire because the military and financial burden falls largely on Washington. “Israel isn’t playing with house money. Israel is playing with U.S. money, with U.S. resources, with the U.S. Navy, not their own.” Anthony Aguilar

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🇮🇷🇺🇸Every major concession in the ceasefire deal points in one direction. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why "ending the conflict" is not the same as winning it. "Those are each one of those are wins for Iran. The only thing the United States gets out of this is ending the conflict. Yeah, but that is not a win." Israel may pull back from Lebanon, but the scoreboard tells a different story.
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🇮🇷🇺🇸Every major concession in the ceasefire deal points in one direction. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why "ending the conflict" is not the same as winning it. "Those are each one of those are wins for Iran. The only thing the United States gets out of this is ending the conflict. Yeah, but that is not a win." Israel may pull back from Lebanon, but the scoreboard tells a different story.

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Journalist: "Will this administration be seeking congressional approval for any further military operations if the ceasefire breaks down? 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sec. Hegseth: "If it were to restart, that would be the President's decision. That option is always there, and Iran knows that. If Iran is not willing to follow through on its side of the bargain or make a deal, then the war department is postured, locked, loaded, and ready to go." At what point is it Congress’ decision? Or the American people’s decision? Nobody wants this war to restart, because nobody wanted it to begin with…
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Journalist: "Will this administration be seeking congressional approval for any further military operations if the ceasefire breaks down? 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sec. Hegseth: "If it were to restart, that would be the President's decision. That option is always there, and Iran knows that. If Iran is not willing to follow through on its side of the bargain or make a deal, then the war department is postured, locked, loaded, and ready to go." At what point is it Congress’ decision? Or the American people’s decision? Nobody wants this war to restart, because nobody wanted it to begin with…

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🇮🇷🇦🇪 The UAE has become the battlefield everyone fights through, not with. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why Iran keeps striking there while Trump's statement barely mentions it. "The UAE has become equivalent to Belgium in World War II in terms of diplomatic and economic maneuver." Anthony Aguilar
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🇮🇷🇦🇪 The UAE has become the battlefield everyone fights through, not with. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why Iran keeps striking there while Trump's statement barely mentions it. "The UAE has become equivalent to Belgium in World War II in terms of diplomatic and economic maneuver." Anthony Aguilar

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A blockade is an act of war, the ceasefire was already broken, and the U.S. may have wanted Iran to shoot first. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it all out. "Not only possible. I think that throughout history we've seen that that is often the case." This conflict is nowhere near over. Anthony Aguilar
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A blockade is an act of war, the ceasefire was already broken, and the U.S. may have wanted Iran to shoot first. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it all out. "Not only possible. I think that throughout history we've seen that that is often the case." This conflict is nowhere near over. Anthony Aguilar

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🇺🇸 The U.S. could go to war over the Strait of Hormuz and still lose. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down the uncomfortable math of a fight over the strait. Iran holds the coastline, the geography, and the home-field depth, which means Tehran wins by simply surviving: "There's no guarantee that the United States wins that food fight." America would need to project overwhelming power across an ocean into Iran's backyard, and hold it. Geography may end up mattering more than firepower.
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🇺🇸 The U.S. could go to war over the Strait of Hormuz and still lose. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down the uncomfortable math of a fight over the strait. Iran holds the coastline, the geography, and the home-field depth, which means Tehran wins by simply surviving: "There's no guarantee that the United States wins that food fight." America would need to project overwhelming power across an ocean into Iran's backyard, and hold it. Geography may end up mattering more than firepower.

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Will Iran go for the bomb? Most everyone is in agreement: We don't want Iran to get nuclear weapons. But does military action make that more or less likely? Is a diplomatic option the only way forward? I discuss with Senator Rand Paul on this week's episode of The Signal Sitdown.
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Will Iran go for the bomb? Most everyone is in agreement: We don't want Iran to get nuclear weapons. But does military action make that more or less likely? Is a diplomatic option the only way forward? I discuss with Senator Rand Paul on this week's episode of The Signal Sitdown.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is still in the phase of working out how concession-prone Trump may be at this juncture of the standoff. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why Tehran's 14-point proposal is nothing more than a calculated bluff. "To think that the U.S. would pull out from all bases, that's not going to happen. Could there be accords for going back to some sort of nuclear non-proliferation treaty? That's on the table." @AnthonyAgu88102
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is still in the phase of working out how concession-prone Trump may be at this juncture of the standoff. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why Tehran's 14-point proposal is nothing more than a calculated bluff. "To think that the U.S. would pull out from all bases, that's not going to happen. Could there be accords for going back to some sort of nuclear non-proliferation treaty? That's on the table." @AnthonyAgu88102

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INTERVIEW: We have a deal! In brief: •⁠ ⁠Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz •⁠ ⁠Iran gets assets unfrozen •⁠ ⁠Ceasefire in Lebanon •⁠ ⁠Israel does NOT have to pull out of Lebanon Great deal for Iran and Israel, shitty deal for Lebanon and the U.S. I break down the full MOU with Fmr Special Forces Officer Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar
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INTERVIEW: We have a deal! In brief: •⁠ ⁠Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz •⁠ ⁠Iran gets assets unfrozen •⁠ ⁠Ceasefire in Lebanon •⁠ ⁠Israel does NOT have to pull out of Lebanon Great deal for Iran and Israel, shitty deal for Lebanon and the U.S. I break down the full MOU with Fmr Special Forces Officer Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 One sharp question is driving all of this: how far can Iran push before Trump is forced to respond? Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it all out. "Iran is trying to figure out, okay, where is that red line? Where is that point of response? Where is that button? So we know how far we can go." The UAE is getting hit, the Strait of Hormuz is in play, and nobody knows what's coming next. Anthony Aguilar
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 One sharp question is driving all of this: how far can Iran push before Trump is forced to respond? Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it all out. "Iran is trying to figure out, okay, where is that red line? Where is that point of response? Where is that button? So we know how far we can go." The UAE is getting hit, the Strait of Hormuz is in play, and nobody knows what's coming next. Anthony Aguilar

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 SKIPPING THE ESCALATION LADDER Iran has scrapped the traditional escalation ladder to inflict maximum damage on U.S. bases as early as possible. With the IRGC launching cruise missiles at the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and targeting the Strait of Hormuz, the "opening stage" of this war is already more violent than many predicted. The goal is to make the cost of war so high for all sides that a temporary pause is no longer an option. Analysis by Trita Parsi below
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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 SKIPPING THE ESCALATION LADDER Iran has scrapped the traditional escalation ladder to inflict maximum damage on U.S. bases as early as possible. With the IRGC launching cruise missiles at the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and targeting the Strait of Hormuz, the "opening stage" of this war is already more violent than many predicted. The goal is to make the cost of war so high for all sides that a temporary pause is no longer an option. Analysis by Trita Parsi below

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The excitement about an imminent Iran agreement is smoke and mirrors. As the Trump administration has said, a deal isn't done until it's done. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just talked about the roadblocks that lay ahead. "Trump's base will not allow Trump to surrender to this." @AnthonyAgu88102
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The excitement about an imminent Iran agreement is smoke and mirrors. As the Trump administration has said, a deal isn't done until it's done. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just talked about the roadblocks that lay ahead. "Trump's base will not allow Trump to surrender to this." @AnthonyAgu88102

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