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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Every deep strike into Russia hands the Kremlin the argument it wanted. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the NATO-backed campaign has done Moscow's messaging work for it, turning an abstract claim into something Russians can point at: "All these deep strikes only essentially prove the Kremlin point that...

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Mario Nawfal

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Political scientist Glenn Diesen says attacks on Russia's economy may be pushing the war in the opposite direction. Strikes on refineries, warehouses, and commercial infrastructure are designed to pressure ordinary Russians and force the Kremlin toward negotiations. But he believes the strategy misunderstands Moscow's motivations. Diesen says Russia views the conflict as existential and is unlikely to change course because of economic pain. Instead, he warns the pressure campaign could trigger a harsher response and further escalation. Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Political scientist Glenn Diesen says attacks on Russia's economy may be pushing the war in the opposite direction. Strikes on refineries, warehouses, and commercial infrastructure are designed to pressure ordinary Russians and force the Kremlin toward negotiations. But he believes the strategy misunderstands Moscow's motivations. Diesen says Russia views the conflict as existential and is unlikely to change course because of economic pain. Instead, he warns the pressure campaign could trigger a harsher response and further escalation. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ NATO WEAKENED, RUSSIA EMBOLDENED, BUT BOTH WANT OUT Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen says the endgame for Ukraine is coming into view. NATO is fracturing, Ukraine can't fill its ranks, and Russia, shaken by Trump's unpredictability, still wants a fast exit on its own terms. "All Ukrainians want victory over Russia, but they're all hiding from the recruitment officers." When nobody wants to pay the price, the war finds its own ending. Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ NATO WEAKENED, RUSSIA EMBOLDENED, BUT BOTH WANT OUT Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen says the endgame for Ukraine is coming into view. NATO is fracturing, Ukraine can't fill its ranks, and Russia, shaken by Trump's unpredictability, still wants a fast exit on its own terms. "All Ukrainians want victory over Russia, but they're all hiding from the recruitment officers." When nobody wants to pay the price, the war finds its own ending. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Europe has convinced itself it can strike Russia without consequences. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen calls that the most dangerous assumption on the continent right now, because Moscow doesn't need tanks rolling west to prove the opposite: "They don't need to capture Berlin. They just need to make sure that the NATO countries know that if they attack Russia, then there will be a response." Deterrence works while both sides still believe in it, and that belief is what's eroding fastest. Glenn Diesen
2:06

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Europe has convinced itself it can strike Russia without consequences. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen calls that the most dangerous assumption on the continent right now, because Moscow doesn't need tanks rolling west to prove the opposite: "They don't need to capture Berlin. They just need to make sure that the NATO countries know that if they attack Russia, then there will be a response." Deterrence works while both sides still believe in it, and that belief is what's eroding fastest. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ A missile landing in Poland may matter less than what Russia does next. Geopolitical analyst Prof. Glenn Diesen says the real story isn't whether the strike was accidental or intentional, but that Moscow may be trying to reestablish deterrence against NATO after years of gradual escalation. Each step crossed what were previously considered red lines, yet Russia largely avoided direct retaliation against NATO itself. Diesen argues that strategy may be reaching its limit. If the Kremlin concludes its deterrence has collapsed, it could begin responding the same way NATO gradually escalated: one small step at a time. That changes how incidents like the Polish missile are interpreted. He sees a similar pattern elsewhere. Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, warehouses and logistics hubs are intended to raise the economic cost of the war and pressure the Kremlin into negotiations. But Diesen believes the strategy misunderstands Russia's mindset. His argument is that economic pain works differently when a country believes it's fighting for its survival. Diesen's conclusion is that both sides are now operating under very different assumptions. The West believes increasing pressure will eventually force Russia to compromise. Russia believes every new escalation confirms its original argument that NATO itself is the threat. If those assumptions don't change, each new strike intended to shorten the war may instead convince both sides they need to escalate even further. Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ A missile landing in Poland may matter less than what Russia does next. Geopolitical analyst Prof. Glenn Diesen says the real story isn't whether the strike was accidental or intentional, but that Moscow may be trying to reestablish deterrence against NATO after years of gradual escalation. Each step crossed what were previously considered red lines, yet Russia largely avoided direct retaliation against NATO itself. Diesen argues that strategy may be reaching its limit. If the Kremlin concludes its deterrence has collapsed, it could begin responding the same way NATO gradually escalated: one small step at a time. That changes how incidents like the Polish missile are interpreted. He sees a similar pattern elsewhere. Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, warehouses and logistics hubs are intended to raise the economic cost of the war and pressure the Kremlin into negotiations. But Diesen believes the strategy misunderstands Russia's mindset. His argument is that economic pain works differently when a country believes it's fighting for its survival. Diesen's conclusion is that both sides are now operating under very different assumptions. The West believes increasing pressure will eventually force Russia to compromise. Russia believes every new escalation confirms its original argument that NATO itself is the threat. If those assumptions don't change, each new strike intended to shorten the war may instead convince both sides they need to escalate even further. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Most Western politicians have never actually read the NATO charter they keep invoking. Geopolitical Analyst Glenn Diesen breaks down why the "obligatory war" assumption could collapse the moment it's tested. "Each country should consider it as an attack on everyone, and they can take the decisions themselves, how they want to respond to this, so they can write a strongly worded letter or they can join in on the war." If Russia strikes European infrastructure and NATO blinks, the bluff that has held for decades is over. Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Most Western politicians have never actually read the NATO charter they keep invoking. Geopolitical Analyst Glenn Diesen breaks down why the "obligatory war" assumption could collapse the moment it's tested. "Each country should consider it as an attack on everyone, and they can take the decisions themselves, how they want to respond to this, so they can write a strongly worded letter or they can join in on the war." If Russia strikes European infrastructure and NATO blinks, the bluff that has held for decades is over. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe set its own deadline for war with Russia, and now Russia may not wait for it to arrive. Geopolitical Analyst Glenn Diesen argues Moscow has already declared Western weapons facilities legitimate targets, and Europeans keep escalating anyway. "If they think a war is unavoidable now, then I think the Russians would at some point decide to throw the first punch." Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe set its own deadline for war with Russia, and now Russia may not wait for it to arrive. Geopolitical Analyst Glenn Diesen argues Moscow has already declared Western weapons facilities legitimate targets, and Europeans keep escalating anyway. "If they think a war is unavoidable now, then I think the Russians would at some point decide to throw the first punch." Glenn Diesen

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HE (RUBIO) DOES NOT UNDERSTAND, AND THIS IS TRUE OF THE VAST MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IN FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT IN THIS COUNTRY, THAT FOR RUSSIA, THIS IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT. THE POSSIBILITY OF UKRAINE BECOMING A MEMBER OF NATO IS SIMPLY UNACCEPTABLE TO THE RUSSIANS. IT IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT, AND THEY ARE NOT GONNA STOP UNTIL UKRAINE AND THE WEST ARE DEFEATED AND THEY BOTH ACCEPT THE FACT THAT UKRAINE HAS TO BE A NEUTRAL STATE, NUMBER ONE, AND IT HAS TO BE DISARMED TO THE POINT OFFENSIVE THREAT TO RUSSIA. - John Mearsheimer
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HE (RUBIO) DOES NOT UNDERSTAND, AND THIS IS TRUE OF THE VAST MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IN FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT IN THIS COUNTRY, THAT FOR RUSSIA, THIS IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT. THE POSSIBILITY OF UKRAINE BECOMING A MEMBER OF NATO IS SIMPLY UNACCEPTABLE TO THE RUSSIANS. IT IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT, AND THEY ARE NOT GONNA STOP UNTIL UKRAINE AND THE WEST ARE DEFEATED AND THEY BOTH ACCEPT THE FACT THAT UKRAINE HAS TO BE A NEUTRAL STATE, NUMBER ONE, AND IT HAS TO BE DISARMED TO THE POINT OFFENSIVE THREAT TO RUSSIA. - John Mearsheimer

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ IRAN WAR FALLOUT WILL HELP END UKRAINE WAR Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen says the ripple effects of the war will reach Kyiv. Ukraine is bleeding weapons, money, and manpower while Russia is stacking cash thanks to the increased price of oil, and the Iran conflict is draining NATO stockpiles fast, leaving Kyiv with fewer options and harder choices. "The only way the war can end, either a nuclear exchange or Russia wins. You can't defeat the world's largest nuclear power facing an existential threat." Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ IRAN WAR FALLOUT WILL HELP END UKRAINE WAR Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen says the ripple effects of the war will reach Kyiv. Ukraine is bleeding weapons, money, and manpower while Russia is stacking cash thanks to the increased price of oil, and the Iran conflict is draining NATO stockpiles fast, leaving Kyiv with fewer options and harder choices. "The only way the war can end, either a nuclear exchange or Russia wins. You can't defeat the world's largest nuclear power facing an existential threat." Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Russia may decide it has to hit a NATO country directly, and that's exactly how a nuclear war starts. Glenn Diesen says the recent, unprecedented drone strikes on Moscow mark a serious escalation, extending a pattern of provocations that have already targeted Russia's nuclear early-warning systems and retaliatory capabilities. Russia will likely hit back at Ukraine, he says, but here's the trap he flags: those strikes may not deter anyone, because NATO, the side actually supplying the resources, doesn't treat Ukrainian casualties as a strategic loss. That, Glenn warns, could push Moscow toward a chilling conclusion, that the only way to draw a real red line is to strike a NATO country directly, even knowing it risks triggering nuclear war. Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Russia may decide it has to hit a NATO country directly, and that's exactly how a nuclear war starts. Glenn Diesen says the recent, unprecedented drone strikes on Moscow mark a serious escalation, extending a pattern of provocations that have already targeted Russia's nuclear early-warning systems and retaliatory capabilities. Russia will likely hit back at Ukraine, he says, but here's the trap he flags: those strikes may not deter anyone, because NATO, the side actually supplying the resources, doesn't treat Ukrainian casualties as a strategic loss. That, Glenn warns, could push Moscow toward a chilling conclusion, that the only way to draw a real red line is to strike a NATO country directly, even knowing it risks triggering nuclear war. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ What if the peace deal Russia was offered a year ago never really disappeared, and now Washington is coming back to it? Professor Glenn Diesen argues that the U.S. presented Russia with a peace proposal, Moscow made concessions, and Washington then walked away. Diesen says that the 40-day NATO bombing campaign that followed was a last-ditch attempt to force better terms, but instead, it failed to break the Kremlinโ€™s position. โ€œThe pressure on the Kremlin is to put an end to this war.โ€ Russia responded with heavy retaliation against Ukraine, pushing the conflict even further. Now Kushner is heading to Moscow. A year later, the same war is still going, and Washington is back at the negotiating table. Draw your own conclusions. Glenn Diesen
4:21

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ What if the peace deal Russia was offered a year ago never really disappeared, and now Washington is coming back to it? Professor Glenn Diesen argues that the U.S. presented Russia with a peace proposal, Moscow made concessions, and Washington then walked away. Diesen says that the 40-day NATO bombing campaign that followed was a last-ditch attempt to force better terms, but instead, it failed to break the Kremlinโ€™s position. โ€œThe pressure on the Kremlin is to put an end to this war.โ€ Russia responded with heavy retaliation against Ukraine, pushing the conflict even further. Now Kushner is heading to Moscow. A year later, the same war is still going, and Washington is back at the negotiating table. Draw your own conclusions. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Russia may decide it has to hit a NATO country directly, and that's exactly how a nuclear war starts. Glenn Diesen says the recent, unprecedented drone strikes on Moscow mark a serious escalation, extending a pattern of provocations that have already targeted Russia's nuclear early-warning systems and retaliatory capabilities. Russia will likely hit back at Ukraine, he says, but here's the trap he flags: those strikes may not deter anyone, because NATO, the side actually supplying the resources, doesn't treat Ukrainian casualties as a strategic loss. That, Glenn warns, could push Moscow toward a chilling conclusion, that the only way to draw a real red line is to strike a NATO country directly, even knowing it risks triggering nuclear war. Glenn Diesen
2:18

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Russia may decide it has to hit a NATO country directly, and that's exactly how a nuclear war starts. Glenn Diesen says the recent, unprecedented drone strikes on Moscow mark a serious escalation, extending a pattern of provocations that have already targeted Russia's nuclear early-warning systems and retaliatory capabilities. Russia will likely hit back at Ukraine, he says, but here's the trap he flags: those strikes may not deter anyone, because NATO, the side actually supplying the resources, doesn't treat Ukrainian casualties as a strategic loss. That, Glenn warns, could push Moscow toward a chilling conclusion, that the only way to draw a real red line is to strike a NATO country directly, even knowing it risks triggering nuclear war. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Ukraine's northeastern line is buckling while Russian forces work to close a pocket around it. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen describes an advance that keeps grinding rather than surging, which is what makes it so hard for Kyiv to counter: "The Russians are gradually moving forward as they do." Kyiv disputes the encirclement claims, though nobody is arguing the line is moving in Ukraine's favor, and Kharkov is back in the conversation for the first time in years. Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Ukraine's northeastern line is buckling while Russian forces work to close a pocket around it. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen describes an advance that keeps grinding rather than surging, which is what makes it so hard for Kyiv to counter: "The Russians are gradually moving forward as they do." Kyiv disputes the encirclement claims, though nobody is arguing the line is moving in Ukraine's favor, and Kharkov is back in the conversation for the first time in years. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Worrying about nuclear war used to be called deterrence. Now many European leaders treat it as weakness, appeasement, or โ€œfalling for nuclear blackmail.โ€ Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the real danger is the belief that endless slow escalation can continue forever without triggering a direct response from Russia. โ€œAt some point, the Russians will retaliate and we're going to go very quickly up that escalation ladder.โ€ The scariest part is that almost every step toward disaster still looks manageable right before it happens. Glenn Diesen
6:44

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Worrying about nuclear war used to be called deterrence. Now many European leaders treat it as weakness, appeasement, or โ€œfalling for nuclear blackmail.โ€ Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the real danger is the belief that endless slow escalation can continue forever without triggering a direct response from Russia. โ€œAt some point, the Russians will retaliate and we're going to go very quickly up that escalation ladder.โ€ The scariest part is that almost every step toward disaster still looks manageable right before it happens. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บGlenn Diesen, Professor at the University of Southeastern Norway, says that the EU's plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine is the capitulation of Russia: What they are asking for if this peace agreement is essentially Russia's surrender?And this is quite unusual, because Russia started the war to prevent NATO expansion into Ukraine, and then, after much suffering, Russia actually won the war. However, the Europeans consider it reasonable to demand that the peace agreement at the end of Russia's victory consist in NATO gaining a foothold in Ukraine. In fact, it doesn't make much sense at all. As you has just said, the winning side usually dictates the terms, but here everything is turned upside down.
0:45

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บGlenn Diesen, Professor at the University of Southeastern Norway, says that the EU's plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine is the capitulation of Russia: What they are asking for if this peace agreement is essentially Russia's surrender?And this is quite unusual, because Russia started the war to prevent NATO expansion into Ukraine, and then, after much suffering, Russia actually won the war. However, the Europeans consider it reasonable to demand that the peace agreement at the end of Russia's victory consist in NATO gaining a foothold in Ukraine. In fact, it doesn't make much sense at all. As you has just said, the winning side usually dictates the terms, but here everything is turned upside down.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The voices inside Russia calling for direct retaliation against Europe are no longer a fringe minority. They are starting to shape the consensus. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the mood inside Russia has shifted dramatically as more officials and commentators argue that Europe is now an active participant in the war. โ€œI'm very convinced the Russians will retaliate against Europe.โ€ And with Washington stretched across multiple fronts, many in Moscow may believe the window for escalation is finally open. Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The voices inside Russia calling for direct retaliation against Europe are no longer a fringe minority. They are starting to shape the consensus. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the mood inside Russia has shifted dramatically as more officials and commentators argue that Europe is now an active participant in the war. โ€œI'm very convinced the Russians will retaliate against Europe.โ€ And with Washington stretched across multiple fronts, many in Moscow may believe the window for escalation is finally open. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The world is drifting toward a massive war because every major power now believes escalation is safer than backing down. Europe keeps escalating. America is slowly pulling back. Russia believes it must restore deterrence before NATO pushes even further. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the combination is becoming explosive. โ€œWe have the perfect recipe now for a massive war, which is why I think it's coming unless they change.โ€ And while Russia, Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East burn through money, weapons, and political stability, China keeps getting stronger without firing a shot. Glenn Diesen
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The world is drifting toward a massive war because every major power now believes escalation is safer than backing down. Europe keeps escalating. America is slowly pulling back. Russia believes it must restore deterrence before NATO pushes even further. Geopolitical analyst Glenn Diesen says the combination is becoming explosive. โ€œWe have the perfect recipe now for a massive war, which is why I think it's coming unless they change.โ€ And while Russia, Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East burn through money, weapons, and political stability, China keeps getting stronger without firing a shot. Glenn Diesen

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Russia is holding back from hitting NATO, and one strike on the wrong target could change that. Military analyst Lt. Col. Daniel Davis says Putin's current calculation is that provoking Article 5 costs more than it gains, especially with a missile and drone campaign that may grind Ukraine down within a year anyway. What would flip it is a strike carrying emotional weight rather than military value, something like the Kremlin, delivered with British, French or German help: "If the conditions warrant it, Russia does calculate that they can cross that and still come out on top." Daniel Davis Deep Dive
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Russia is holding back from hitting NATO, and one strike on the wrong target could change that. Military analyst Lt. Col. Daniel Davis says Putin's current calculation is that provoking Article 5 costs more than it gains, especially with a missile and drone campaign that may grind Ukraine down within a year anyway. What would flip it is a strike carrying emotional weight rather than military value, something like the Kremlin, delivered with British, French or German help: "If the conditions warrant it, Russia does calculate that they can cross that and still come out on top." Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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