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Every major AI lab is spending billions on compute, and virtually all of it flows through Nvidia. The Blackwell architecture is sold out through 2027, margins are above 75%, and the data center segment alone is growing faster than most entire companies. I keep hearing that $NVDA is "priced...

11,006 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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The CEO of the world's largest asset manager just said something that should reframe how every investor thinks about the AI trade. Larry Fink, managing $11.5 trillion at BlackRock, stood at the Milken Institute Global Conference and said four words that matter, "We just don't have enough compute." "The United States is short power. We're short compute. We're short chips. And there's going to be shortages in all three and memory, four things. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Think about what that means. Fink is predicting that compute becomes a tradable commodity like oil, like grain, like natural gas where investors buy forward contracts on future capacity because the shortage is so structural and so predictable that a derivatives market will emerge to price it. That is not a minor observation from a finance executive but rather the chairman of the most powerful capital allocator on the planet telling you that compute scarcity is a multi-year, investable megatrend. The data backs him up completely. Data centers will consume 70% of all memory chips produced globally in 2026. Advanced HBM production from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is sold out through 2026 and into 2027 and a single AI server consumes 10-20x more memory than a conventional workload server. DRAM supply growth is running at just 16% annually while AI infrastructure demand is growing at 80%+. The chip crunch, the power crunch, and the compute crunch are not temporary dislocations, they are structural, and they will get worse before they get better. Fink also said something the bears keep getting wrong: "There is not an AI bubble. There is the opposite. We have supply shortages. Demand is growing much faster than anyone has ever anticipated." This is why the Milk Road Pro portfolio is built the way it is, long the companies producing and supplying the constrained resources: chips, memory, compute infrastructure, and power. Check out Milk Road Pro, link below to access our full thesis and plays.

Milk Road AI

419,755 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 THE AI TRADE JUST BROKE. Nasdaq 100 is down 10% from its record. Chips just closed lower four sessions in a row. The moment it turned was July 16. TSMC posted the best quarter in its history. Profit up 77%. Revenue up 33.7%. Then it raised 2026 capex from $56B to $64B and added $100B in Arizona. The stock sold off anyway. Record earnings, and the market sold it. That is the regime change. Good numbers stopped mattering the moment capex started eating the cash flow. Look at what actually changed. The entire AI bull case rested on one assumption: inference gets cheaper. Spend now, scale later, margins explode when compute collapses in price. Here is what happened instead. Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023. It is 30% in 2026. Analysts model 48% by 2027. DRAM prices more than doubled this year. LPDDR5 is up over 3x since early 2025. HBM stays short through 2027. Costs are not collapsing. They are compounding. And the market finally noticed the tell. TSMC beat on profit and revenue, then guided capex higher, and the stock sold off. Good earnings are now bearish, because every dollar of capex needs a dollar of return that nobody can show yet. Meanwhile the money still moves in a circle. Anthropic at $965B. OpenAI at $852B. Both funded by the same players buying the same chips. SpaceX down 32% in six weeks, and it is the largest listing in history. This is the same structure as 2000, with better branding. But 2000 did not go straight down either. Nasdaq rallied 40% twice before the real collapse. Both rallies destroyed the shorts who were right too early. That is the phase we are entering now, not the crash. One more squeeze into early 2027. Then the actual dump. I called the $15,768 bottom and the $126,162 top by waiting for exactly this pattern. I am not shorting into the bounce. I am waiting for it to exhaust. Follow and turn notifications on. I post the moment it does.

Nonzee

17,990 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

David Sacks just said what every honest analyst in Silicon Valley is already thinking (Save this). Nobody has ever seen anything like this. Anthropic has grown at 10x per year for three straight years and going into 2026, the conventional wisdom was that the rate of growth had to slow at this level of scale but then the numbers came in. Q1 alone is $10B ARR to $30B, in April, $30B to $44B and that's $96 million in new ARR added every single day. Inference margins are now above 70%, up from 38% last year and the only thing holding them back was compute. That's solved now, the SpaceX deal and others Anthropic has been quietly signing unlocks the supply side. This is exactly why we are bullish on Nebius and AMD. When a single company is adding nearly $100M in ARR per day, the real trade isn't the frontier lab but rather the infrastructure underneath it. Nebius, one of the fastest-growing neoclouds on the planet posted 547% YoY revenue growth in Q4 2025, exited the year with $1.25B ARR, and is guiding for $7–9B ARR by year-end 2026. Their revenue backlog has reached $46B, with projections of $16B in revenue by 2028 and NVIDIA locked in a $2 billion stock buy agreement with them giving Nebius early access to cutting-edge chips while every other cloud scrambles for supply. AMD is the other side of the same coin. Data center revenue hit $5.78B in Q1, up 57% year-over-year with total company revenue at $10.25B, up 38%. Meta has committed to deploying up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs. Data center GPU revenue is forecast to surge 114% year over year to $15B in 2026. MI400-series chips hit the market in H2 and analysts project segment operating margins climbing to 31% as the next generation ramps. The model is simple, Anthropic is printing revenue and that that revenue pays for compute. That compute flows through companies like Nebius and AMD. This is why Milk Road PRO remains bullish on them and our positions are up massively. Our analysts have broken down the full thesis, the allocations, and the price targets. Go PRO at Milk Road to see everything, link below!

Milk Road AI

184,643 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten