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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every problem Washington is now using to justify the Iran war was created by Washington itself. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley breaks down exactly how the U.S. built this trap and walked into it. "There wouldn't be the problem with the highly enriched uranium if Trump had not withdrawn... show more

Mario Nawfal

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44,963 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The regime believes it can absorb the pain longer than Washington can, and that conviction alone makes capitulation impossible. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley explains h every assumption driving the pressure campaign was built on a false premise. "If the expectation was you hit Iran hard enough, they're going to come up, not with a non maximalist, but with a capitulation, with a surrender... it was dead wrong and it never was going to happen." The regime is betting on American impatience, and history says that's not a bad bet. Robert Malley

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The regime believes it can absorb the pain longer than Washington can, and that conviction alone makes capitulation impossible. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley explains h every assumption driving the pressure campaign was built on a false premise. "If the expectation was you hit Iran hard enough, they're going to come up, not with a non maximalist, but with a capitulation, with a surrender... it was dead wrong and it never was going to happen." The regime is betting on American impatience, and history says that's not a bad bet. Robert Malley

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 Every day this war continues, China collects a strategic dividend at America's expense. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley: "Every day the war goes on is a plus... in that respect for China and a minus for the U.S." 2 presidents promised a pivot to Asia. Neither delivered. Now a third is watching the same trap close. Robert Malley

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Every day this war continues, China collects a strategic dividend at America's expense. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley: "Every day the war goes on is a plus... in that respect for China and a minus for the U.S." 2 presidents promised a pivot to Asia. Neither delivered. Now a third is watching the same trap close. Robert Malley

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 Netanyahu spent decades pushing for war with Iran. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley says Netanyahu was pushing on an open door, and the real one-man show was in Washington, not Tehran. "I think he became absolutely addicted to this view that he's right, the others are wrong, he has the power, the others are going to have to surrender." Netanyahu wanted it for decades. All it took was an American president who finally said now's the time. Robert Malley

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Netanyahu spent decades pushing for war with Iran. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley says Netanyahu was pushing on an open door, and the real one-man show was in Washington, not Tehran. "I think he became absolutely addicted to this view that he's right, the others are wrong, he has the power, the others are going to have to surrender." Netanyahu wanted it for decades. All it took was an American president who finally said now's the time. Robert Malley

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🇮🇷 The will is there, the knowhow is nearly there, and the only thing holding them back is fear of being caught. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley just laid it all out. "They're getting all of the costs of having the sanctions and pressures as if we had a bomb, but we don't have a bomb, so we don't have that deterrent." Iran is stuck in the worst of both worlds, and they know it. Robert Malley

🇮🇷 The will is there, the knowhow is nearly there, and the only thing holding them back is fear of being caught. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley just laid it all out. "They're getting all of the costs of having the sanctions and pressures as if we had a bomb, but we don't have a bomb, so we don't have that deterrent." Iran is stuck in the worst of both worlds, and they know it. Robert Malley

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Past June, the economic and political math turns hard against Washington, and Iran is counting on it. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley says Iran knows that dragging this past June deepens the damage to both the U.S. economy and the Republican Party, and there is a camp in Tehran that believes surviving even another strike only proves their resilience again. He sketched four endings: a framework deal that reopens the strait, Trump declaring victory and walking away, another round of strikes to prove a point, or a grinding stalemate of no war and no peace that keeps claiming victims worldwide. On the strait itself, Robert says what he hears from the Iranians is that there is no return to the way things were. Some form of financial compensation is coming, whether through tolls, sanctions relief, or unfrozen assets. Robert Malley

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Past June, the economic and political math turns hard against Washington, and Iran is counting on it. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley says Iran knows that dragging this past June deepens the damage to both the U.S. economy and the Republican Party, and there is a camp in Tehran that believes surviving even another strike only proves their resilience again. He sketched four endings: a framework deal that reopens the strait, Trump declaring victory and walking away, another round of strikes to prove a point, or a grinding stalemate of no war and no peace that keeps claiming victims worldwide. On the strait itself, Robert says what he hears from the Iranians is that there is no return to the way things were. Some form of financial compensation is coming, whether through tolls, sanctions relief, or unfrozen assets. Robert Malley

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🇮🇷 The Gulf states may soon face a choice between letting Iran skim profits off the Strait of Hormuz or watching it shut down entirely. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley thinks Tehran's endgame is cutting a deal with the GCC that gives Iran a share of the proceeds, wrapped in the language of collective victimhood. "If the choice for them is either that or the closure of the strait, I just don't know what they'll pick." When your last card to play is calling Beijing, the old world order is already gone. Robert Malley

🇮🇷 The Gulf states may soon face a choice between letting Iran skim profits off the Strait of Hormuz or watching it shut down entirely. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley thinks Tehran's endgame is cutting a deal with the GCC that gives Iran a share of the proceeds, wrapped in the language of collective victimhood. "If the choice for them is either that or the closure of the strait, I just don't know what they'll pick." When your last card to play is calling Beijing, the old world order is already gone. Robert Malley

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Former U.S. Iran envoy Robert Malley says Israel will not stop bombing Lebanon even if the U.S. and Iran reach a deal, arguing Israeli officials will continue justifying strikes by citing alleged “threats” — while reserving the right to define what constitutes said “threat.” Israel also carried out near daily attacks in Lebanon after agreeing to the November 2024 ceasefire agreement – Malley indicates the pattern is unlikely to change under any new U.S.-Iran understanding. Robert Malley | MS NOW

Former U.S. Iran envoy Robert Malley says Israel will not stop bombing Lebanon even if the U.S. and Iran reach a deal, arguing Israeli officials will continue justifying strikes by citing alleged “threats” — while reserving the right to define what constitutes said “threat.” Israel also carried out near daily attacks in Lebanon after agreeing to the November 2024 ceasefire agreement – Malley indicates the pattern is unlikely to change under any new U.S.-Iran understanding. Robert Malley | MS NOW

Drop Site

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📽️ Rob Malley, former US special envoy for Iran, says the most realistic positive path now is not a grand bargain but what he calls “MOU-plus”: a series of smaller, discrete US-Iran deals built on top of the ceasefire framework. ➤ Under this scenario, Iran would trade specific concessions for specific relief: renewed IAEA inspections in exchange for access to frozen assets, or getting rid of its highly enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for broader economic relief. ➤ Malley says step-by-step transactions like these would let Trump claim wins, “We got rid of the 60%, we get inspectors back in,” while keeping “the floor beneath the deal” and avoiding a collapse back into war. ➤ “It’s not the breakthrough,” Malley concedes, but neither side wants a return to full-scale war. (🎥 via Carnegie Connects hosted by Aaron David Miller, with Robert Malley)

📽️ Rob Malley, former US special envoy for Iran, says the most realistic positive path now is not a grand bargain but what he calls “MOU-plus”: a series of smaller, discrete US-Iran deals built on top of the ceasefire framework. ➤ Under this scenario, Iran would trade specific concessions for specific relief: renewed IAEA inspections in exchange for access to frozen assets, or getting rid of its highly enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for broader economic relief. ➤ Malley says step-by-step transactions like these would let Trump claim wins, “We got rid of the 60%, we get inspectors back in,” while keeping “the floor beneath the deal” and avoiding a collapse back into war. ➤ “It’s not the breakthrough,” Malley concedes, but neither side wants a return to full-scale war. (🎥 via Carnegie Connects hosted by Aaron David Miller, with Robert Malley)

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🇺🇸 Biden returned to 18 of the 19 agreements Trump abandoned. The one he skipped was the nuclear deal. Tehran University professor Foad Izadi breaks down why that single decision may have changed everything. "If they had listened to Robert Malley, you probably would not have this work because the U.S. would actually return to the agreement." One agreement left on the table. An entire region paid the price. فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

🇺🇸 Biden returned to 18 of the 19 agreements Trump abandoned. The one he skipped was the nuclear deal. Tehran University professor Foad Izadi breaks down why that single decision may have changed everything. "If they had listened to Robert Malley, you probably would not have this work because the U.S. would actually return to the agreement." One agreement left on the table. An entire region paid the price. فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is claiming a "crushing response" while firing almost nothing. Ex-U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance breaks down what's actually happening on the ground. "Negotiating with bombs. Look." They're desperate for a deal. Iran knows it. And that's exactly the problem. Malcolm Nance

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is claiming a "crushing response" while firing almost nothing. Ex-U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance breaks down what's actually happening on the ground. "Negotiating with bombs. Look." They're desperate for a deal. Iran knows it. And that's exactly the problem. Malcolm Nance

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How will this war be remembered decades from now? I spoke with Robert Satloff from the Washington Institute about the shifting threat outlook and how the #UAE’s perception of Iran is being permanently redefined by the current crisis. Watch here:

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The trap finally snapped SHUT. Israel dragged Trump into a war with Iran, Iran came out stronger, and now Netanyahu is using Lebanon to try to wreck the peace deal before it becomes real. @EstebanCarlop breaks it down.

The trap finally snapped SHUT. Israel dragged Trump into a war with Iran, Iran came out stronger, and now Netanyahu is using Lebanon to try to wreck the peace deal before it becomes real. @EstebanCarlop breaks it down.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has more missiles and drones now than before the war started, and the U.S. can't keep pace with replacements. Nima Rostami Alkhorshid says Washington is already hitting the limits of what it can sustain. "The United States is not going to be able to fight this war." The escalation trap is real, and one miscalculation could turn a short conflict into something no one can walk away from.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has more missiles and drones now than before the war started, and the U.S. can't keep pace with replacements. Nima Rostami Alkhorshid says Washington is already hitting the limits of what it can sustain. "The United States is not going to be able to fight this war." The escalation trap is real, and one miscalculation could turn a short conflict into something no one can walk away from.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump spent years trashing the JCPOA. Now the deal he is celebrating may be weaker than the one he tore up. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the JCPOA was an actual plan of action, with requirements, constraints, consequences, and a clear end state. The new MOU, he says, is just an idea. “The principles of this MOU are significantly worse for the U.S. interests than the JCPOA. Without question.” That is the irony: after war, strikes, blockade, and chaos, Washington may have ended up with less than it already had.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump spent years trashing the JCPOA. Now the deal he is celebrating may be weaker than the one he tore up. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the JCPOA was an actual plan of action, with requirements, constraints, consequences, and a clear end state. The new MOU, he says, is just an idea. “The principles of this MOU are significantly worse for the U.S. interests than the JCPOA. Without question.” That is the irony: after war, strikes, blockade, and chaos, Washington may have ended up with less than it already had.

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 JCPOA: THE TRUTH BEHIND THE DEAL Alan Eyre breaks down how the JCPOA wasn't built on trust, but on the most rigorous verification measures ever implemented. The goal was simple: restrict centrifuges and enrichment to keep a nuclear weapon out of reach. Ripping it up didn't solve the problem; it only removed our visibility. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 A peace deal was hours away, and one Israeli strike nearly blew it up. Trump said the Beirut attack “should not have happened” because the U.S. was close to a deal with Iran. While Trump claimed the deal could be signed in 2 to 3 hours, Iran was already closing its airspace. Peace was being announced in Washington while the region was preparing for the next strike. Alex Christoforou

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 A peace deal was hours away, and one Israeli strike nearly blew it up. Trump said the Beirut attack “should not have happened” because the U.S. was close to a deal with Iran. While Trump claimed the deal could be signed in 2 to 3 hours, Iran was already closing its airspace. Peace was being announced in Washington while the region was preparing for the next strike. Alex Christoforou

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INTERVIEW: Not only is the Iran war not over, but we may be getting into a global war, one the U.S. will almost certainly lose Author and political analyst Brandon Weichert breaks down why the war is not over, and the world is slowly falling into an escalation trap reminiscent of WW1 The comparison is terrifying. Brandon Weichert

INTERVIEW: Not only is the Iran war not over, but we may be getting into a global war, one the U.S. will almost certainly lose Author and political analyst Brandon Weichert breaks down why the war is not over, and the world is slowly falling into an escalation trap reminiscent of WW1 The comparison is terrifying. Brandon Weichert

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📽️ Rob Malley, former US special envoy for Iran, on the US war against Iran and the MOU that paused it: ➤ “There’s no outcome now that would justify the war retroactively… It was unconstitutional. It was unlawful, reckless, and damaging not just to Iran and the US, but to much of the globe.” ➤ “Wars have consequences. Wars that are lost have costlier ones. And the US is paying the cost of that decision.” ➤ Malley called the MOU “a vague, ambiguous deal that both sides read differently, signed for different reasons, are implementing in different ways” — surviving “despite the words on paper more than because of” them. ➤ “It really is a pursuit of their conflict through other means in different theaters: Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, and the question of economic relief.” (🎥 via Carnegie Connects hosted by Aaron David Miller, with Robert Malley)

📽️ Rob Malley, former US special envoy for Iran, on the US war against Iran and the MOU that paused it: ➤ “There’s no outcome now that would justify the war retroactively… It was unconstitutional. It was unlawful, reckless, and damaging not just to Iran and the US, but to much of the globe.” ➤ “Wars have consequences. Wars that are lost have costlier ones. And the US is paying the cost of that decision.” ➤ Malley called the MOU “a vague, ambiguous deal that both sides read differently, signed for different reasons, are implementing in different ways” — surviving “despite the words on paper more than because of” them. ➤ “It really is a pursuit of their conflict through other means in different theaters: Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, and the question of economic relief.” (🎥 via Carnegie Connects hosted by Aaron David Miller, with Robert Malley)

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JUST IN 🇮🇷🇺🇸: U.S. and Iranian Negotiations hit a BIG WALL, The Strait of Hormuz Iran stressed the Strait of Hormuz, won't return to its pre-war status, and a new transit protocol must be established. The U.S. wants to return to what it was before the war. The 40-day War on Iran gave them a nuke, the Strait of Hormuz, and they will not give it up! This was a problem created by Netanyahu lying and starting this war on Iran and the world is paying the price. Thanks again Bibi...

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